It's a real pleasure to be here.

謝謝

I last did a TED Talk

能來到這裡真是我的一大榮幸

I think about seven years ago or so.

上一次我在TED做演講

I talked about spaghetti sauce.

我想大概是七年前

And so many people, I guess, watch those videos.

我講了意大利麵條的醬．

People have been coming up to me ever since

有很多人，看這了個視頻．

to ask me questions about spaghetti sauce,

從那之後就經常有人來找我

which is a wonderful thing in the short term --

問我關於意大利麵條的醬的事

(Laughter)

在短期內這是件很高興的事

but it's proven to be less than ideal

(笑聲)

over seven years.

但持續了七年，

And so I though I would come

就不是那麼理想了．

and try and put spaghetti sauce behind me.

所以我想我要再來一次

(Laughter)

試著把麵條這事翻過去．

The theme of this morning's session is Things We Make.

(笑聲)

And so I thought I would tell a story

今天早上這部分的主題是我們創造的東西．

about someone

所以我想我來講個故事

who made one of the most precious objects

是關於一個人

of his era.

創造了他那個時代

And the man's name is Carl Norden.

最珍貴的東西．

Carl Norden was born in 1880.

這人的名字叫Carl Norden.

And he was Swiss.

Carl Norden出生於1880年

And of course, the Swiss can be divided

他是瑞士人．

into two general categories:

當然，瑞士人可以被

those who make small, exquisite,

分為兩大類：

expensive objects

那些創造細小的，精緻的

and those who handle the money

昂貴的東西的人

of those who buy small, exquisite,

和那些管理這些做細小精緻

expensive objects.

昂貴東西的人的

And Carl Norden is very firmly in the former camp.

錢財的人．

He's an engineer.

Carl Norden是堅定地屬於第一個陣營．

He goes to the Federal Polytech in Zurich.

他是個工程師．

In fact, one of his classmates is a young man named Lenin

他就讀於苏黎士联邦理工学院．

who would go on

事實上，他有一個同學名字 Lenin

to break small, expensive, exquisite objects.

這個同學經常把那些

And he's a Swiss engineer, Carl.

細小精緻昂貴的東西搞壞．

And I mean that in its fullest sense of the word.

Carl，是一個瑞士的工程師．

He wears three-piece suits;

他是最當得起這稱號的．

and he has a very, very small, important mustache;

他穿三件套的西裝；

and he is domineering

他有一個特別特別小但很重要的小鬍子；

and narcissistic

他盛氣凌人

and driven

他自戀

and has an extraordinary ego;

他有動力

and he works 16-hour days;

還特別自負；

and he has very strong feelings about alternating current;

而且他每天工作16個小時；

and he feels like a suntan is a sign of moral weakness;

他對交流電路很在行；

and he drinks lots of coffee;

他覺得被太陽晒黑是一種道德上軟弱的表現；

and he does his best work

他喝特別多的咖啡；

sitting in his mother's kitchen in Zurich for hours

他最好的工作都是在

in complete silence

他母親在蘇黎士的廚房裡完成的，

with nothing but a slide rule.

他能安安靜靜地工作幾個小時

In any case,

而手頭只有一把滑尺．

Carl Norden emigrates to the United States

不管怎樣，

just before the First World War

Carl Norden在第一次世界大戰前

and sets up shop on Lafayette Street

移民到了美國

in downtown Manhattan.

在曼哈頓市中心的

And he becomes obsessed with the question

拉法葉街上開了一間作坊．

of how to drop bombs from an airplane.

然後他迷戀上了如何從

Now if you think about it,

飛機上扔炸彈下來這個問題．

in the age before GPS and radar,

如果你來想這個問題,

that was obviously a really difficult problem.

在GPS和雷達發明之前,

It's a complicated physics problem.

這顯然是一個很困難的問題.

You've got a plane that's thousands of feet up in the air,

這個一個複雜的物理問題.

going at hundreds of miles an hour,

你有一架飛在幾千英尺高空的飛機,

and you're trying to drop an object, a bomb,

以每小時幾百英里的速度飛行

towards some stationary target

你試圖想扔下一個東西,一個炮彈,

in the face of all kinds of winds and cloud cover

想讓它擊中一個靜止不動的物體

and all kinds of other impediments.

在有各種風向和雲朵

And all sorts of people,

以及各種其它障礙存在的時候.

moving up to the First World War and between the wars,

而且有許多各種各樣的人,

tried to solve this problem,

在第一次世界大戰以及在兩次戰爭中間,

and nearly everybody came up short.

想解決這個問題,

The bombsights that were available

但都沒能如愿.

were incredibly crude.

當時可用的投彈瞄準器

But Carl Norden is really the one who cracks the code.

是相當的粗略的.

And he comes up with this incredibly complicated device.

但Carl Norden幾乎就成了那個攻克難題的人.

It weighs about 50 lbs.

他創造了這個特別複雜的設備.

It's called the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.

設備大約有50磅重.

And it has all kinds of levers and ball-bearings

名字叫作Norden 牌15 型投彈瞄準器.

and gadgets and gauges.

這上面有各種各樣的杠桿,球軸承

And he makes this complicated thing.

小工具以及計量器.

And what he allows people to do

他創造了這個複雜的東西.

is he makes the bombardier take this particular object,

這工具能實現的就是

visually sight the target,

投彈手可以拿著這個工具,

because they're in the Plexiglas cone of the bomber,

看准目標,

and then they plug in the altitude of the plane,

把它放在炸彈的有機玻璃椎的范圍內,

the speed of the plane, the speed of the wind

然後他們輸入飛機的高度

and the coordinates

速度,以及風速

of the target.

和目標物體的

And the bombsight will tell him when to drop the bomb.

坐標.

And as Norden famously says,

然後投彈瞄準器就會告訴投彈手什麼時候放炸彈.

"Before that bombsight came along,

Norden的一句名言是這樣說的,

bombs would routinely miss their target

"在這個投彈瞄準儀發明前,

by a mile or more."

炸彈會常規性地偏離

But he said, with the Mark 15 Norden bombsight,

目標一英里或者更多."

he could drop a bomb into a pickle barrel

他說, 如果用他的這種投彈瞄準儀,

at 20,000 ft.

他可以把炸彈從兩萬英尺高的高空

Now I cannot tell you

仍到一個咸菜桶裡.

how incredibly excited

我無法向你們形容

the U.S. military was

當美國部隊得知

by the news of the Norden bombsight.

Norden的投彈瞄準儀時

It was like manna from heaven.

他們是多麼的激動.

Here was an army

感覺像是從天堂來的甘露.

that had just had experience in the First World War,

一邊是一支剛剛

where millions of men

經歷過一戰的部隊,

fought each other in the trenches,

有幾百萬的士兵

getting nowhere, making no progress,

在戰壕中打仗,

and here someone had come up with a device

沒有出路,沒有進展

that allowed them to fly up in the skies

而另一邊是一個人發明了一個設備,

high above enemy territory

可以讓他們從敵方的領土

and destroy whatever they wanted

上空飛過,

with pinpoint accuracy.

以極準確的精確度

And the U.S. military

摧毀所有他們想摧毀的.

spends 1.5 billion dollars --

美國的軍隊

billion dollars in 1940 dollars --

花了十五億美元

developing the Norden bombsight.

十五億1940年的美元

And to put that in perspective,

來推廣Norden的投彈瞄準儀.

the total cost of the Manhattan project

這是一個什麼概念呢?

was three billion dollars.

曼哈頓項目的總體開銷是

Half as much money was spent on this Norden bombsight

三十億美元.

as was spent on the most famous military-industrial project

相當於曼哈頓項目一半的錢花在了Norden的儀器上,

of the modern era.

而曼哈頓項目是近代歷史上

And there were people, strategists, within the U.S. military

最有名的軍工合作項目.

who genuinely thought that this single device

而軍隊裡的策略家們

was going to spell the difference

他們真心認為這樣一個儀器

between defeat and victory

將會在與納粹

when it came to the battle against the Nazis

和日本人的戰鬥中

and against the Japanese.

決定出

And for Norden as well,

勝負.

this device had incredible moral importance,

而Norden也認為

because Norden was a committed Christian.

這個設備很有道德意義,

In fact, he would always get upset

因為他是個虔誠的基督徒

when people referred to the bombsight as his invention,

事實上, 當他聽到人們

because in his eyes,

稱他為投彈瞄準儀的發明人的時候,

only God could invent things.

他總是很沮喪,

He was simply the instrument of God's will.

因為在他眼裡,只有上帝能發明東西.

And what was God's will?

他只是照著上帝的想法在做事而已.

Well God's will was that the amount of suffering in any kind of war

什麼是上帝的意愿呢?

be reduced to as small an amount as possible.

上帝的意愿是,在任何一場戰爭中

And what did the Norden bombsight do?

人家承受的痛苦應該越小越好.

Well it allowed you to do that.

Norden的設備是做什麼的呢?

It allowed you to bomb only those things

它的作用就是

that you absolutely needed and wanted to bomb.

讓你只炸那些你必須要炸

So in the years leading up to the Second World War,

和想炸的東西.

the U.S. military buys 90,000

所以在二戰來臨前的那些年,

of these Norden bombsights

美國軍隊買了九萬個

at a cost of $14,000 each --

這樣的投彈瞄準儀

again, in 1940 dollars, that's a lot of money.

每一個價值一萬四千美元

And they trained 50,000 bombardiers on how to use them --

在1940年,這是很大一筆錢呀.

long extensive, months-long training sessions --

他們訓練了五萬個投彈手來使用這個儀器

because these things are essentially analog computers;

幾個月長的高強度的訓練--

they're not easy to use.

因為這東西實際上類似於計算機;

And they make every one of those bombardiers take an oath,

不很容易用.

to swear that if they're ever captured,

而且他們讓每一個使用這儀器的投彈手發誓,

they will not divulge a single detail

讓他們發誓如果他們被敵人抓了,

of this particular device to the enemy,

他們不能洩露一點關於

because it's imperative the enemy not get their hands

這個設備的細節,

on this absolutely essential piece of technology.

因為不讓敵方知道哪怕一丁點關於這個特別

And whenever the Norden bombsight is taken onto a plane,

重要的儀器的信息是相當必要的.

it's escorted there by a series of armed guards.

每次當把Norden的投彈瞄準儀放到一個飛機上去時,

And it's carried in a box with a canvas shroud over it.

都有一隊荷槍實彈的保衛護送.

And the box is handcuffed to one of the guards.

它被放在一個盒子裡，盒子上蓋的是帆布的壽衣．

It's never allowed to be photographed.

而且這個盒子是和一個士兵﨧在一起的．

And there's a little incendiary device inside of it,

從來不允許拍照．

so that, if the plane ever crashes, it will be destroyed

還有一個燃燒彈的裝置在里面

and there's no way the enemy can ever get their hands on it.

所以如果飛機被撞了，這設備也會被毀，

The Norden bombsight

這樣敵軍就無論如何也無法得到它．

is the Holy Grail.

Norden的投彈瞄準儀

So what happens during the Second World War?

被當作了聖杯

Well, it turns out it's not the Holy Grail.

所以二戰時發生了什麼呢？

In practice, the Norden bombsight

事實證明，它並不是聖杯．

can drop a bomb into a pickle barrel at 20,000 ft.,

在實戰中，Norden的投彈瞄準儀

but that's under perfect conditions.

是可以把炸彈從兩萬英尺高的高空仍到一個咸菜桶裡.

And of course, in wartime,

但那是在完美條件下．

conditions aren't perfect.

當然，在戰爭中

First of all, it's really hard to use -- really hard to use.

條件總是不完美的．

And not all of the people

首先，它真的很難操作．

who are of those 50,000 men who are bombardiers

不是所有那五萬名投彈手

have the ability to properly program an analog computer.

都有能力控制一個

Secondly, it breaks down a lot.

類似於計算機的程序．

It's full of all kinds of gyroscopes and pulleys

其次，它經常會壞．

and gadgets and ball-bearings,

它裡面裝滿了各種陀螺儀，滑輪，

and they don't work as well as they ought to

小工具以及球軸承

in the heat of battle.

在戰場的熱浪中，這些東西不像

Thirdly, when Norden was making his calculations,

它們本來那樣工作．

he assumed that a plane would be flying

第三點，當Norden做計算的時候，

at a relatively slow speed at low altitudes.

他假設飛機是以較慢的速度

Well in a real war, you can't do that;

在較低的高空飛行．

you'll get shot down.

但在實際戰爭中，不是這樣的．

So they started flying them at high altitudes at incredibly high speeds.

飛機這樣飛行會被擊中的．

And the Norden bombsight doesn't work as well

飛機實際上是以很快的速度在很高的高空飛行．

under those conditions.

Norden的投彈瞄準儀在這樣的條件下

But most of all,

表現並不好．

the Norden bombsight required the bombardier

最重要的一點是，

to make visual contact with the target.

Norden的投彈瞄準儀需要投彈手

But of course, what happens in real life?

能用眼睛看到目標物．

There are clouds, right.

但什麼是實際情況呢？

It needs cloudless sky to be really accurate.

天上會有雲，

Well how many cloudless skies

它需要沒有雲朵的天空來進行準確的瞄準．

do you think there were above Central Europe

你猜在1940年到1945年這幾年中

between 1940 and 1945?

在中歐的天空上，

Not a lot.

到底有多少天是沒有雲朵的呢？

And then to give you a sense

並不非常多．

of just how inaccurate the Norden bombsight was,

大概給你一個印象，

there was a famous case in 1944

知道Norden的投彈瞄準儀到底有多不準確．

where the Allies bombed a chemical plant in Leuna, Germany.

在1944年有一個有名的例子，

And the chemical plant comprised

盟軍在德國洛伊納炸了一個化學工廠

757 acres.

這個工廠有757公頃

And over the course of 22 bombing missions,

那麼大．

the Allies dropped 85,000 bombs

在22輪轟炸過程中

on this 757 acre chemical plant,

盟軍用Norden的投彈瞄準儀

using the Norden bombsight.

在這片757公頃的化學工廠上方

Well what percentage of those bombs

投下了八萬五千個炸彈．

do you think actually landed

你認為大概有多少

inside the 700-acre perimeter of the plant?

炸彈實際上落在了

10 percent. 10 percent.

這七百多公頃的工廠上？

And of those 10 percent that landed,

只有百分之十．

16 percent didn't even go off; they were duds.

而且在這百分之十的炸彈中，

The Leuna chemical plant,

有百分之十六的炸彈都沒有炸開,是啞彈．

after one of the most extensive bombings in the history of the war,

這家化學工廠

was up and running within weeks.

在經歷了戰爭史上最強勁的轟炸後，

And by the way, all those precautions

幾個星期內就又重新開始工作了．

to keep the Norden bombsight out of the hands of the Nazis?

另外，所有那些為了不讓納粹

Well it turns out

知道有關Norden投彈瞄準儀的措施呢？

that Carl Norden, as a proper Swiss,

結果是

was very enamored of German engineers.

Carl Norden對德國的工程師們特別偏愛．

So in the 1930s, he hired a whole bunch of them,

就像別的瑞士人一樣．

including a man named Hermann Long

所以在三十年代，他雇佣了一些德國工程師．

who, in 1938,

其中一個叫Hermann Long.

gave a complete set of the plans for the Norden bombsight to the Nazis.

他在1938年把關於Norden投彈瞄準儀計劃的

So they had their own Norden bombsight throughout the entire war --

一整套信息給了納粹．

which also, by the way, didn't work very well.

所以在戰爭期間，納粹有他們自己的Norden投彈瞄準儀，

(Laughter)

雖然這些也不怎麼好用．

So why do we talk about the Norden bombsight?

(笑聲)

Well because we live in an age

如果這樣，那我們為什麼要談Norden投彈瞄準儀呢？

where there are lots and lots

那是因為我們生活在

of Norden bombsights.

一個充滿Norden投彈瞄準儀

We live in a time where there are all kinds

的時代．

of really, really smart people

我們生活在一個到處都是非常非常聰明

running around, saying that they've invented gadgets

的人的時代，

that will forever change our world.

他們到處奔走，說他們發明了

They've invented websites that will allow people to be free.

能從此改變世界的新奇東西．

They've invented some kind of this thing, or this thing, or this thing

他們發明了能讓人們自由的網站．

that will make our world forever better.

他們發明了這樣那樣的東西

If you go into the military,

能讓我們的世界從此變得更美好．

you'll find lots of Carl Nordens as well.

如果你去軍隊中，

If you go to the Pentagon, they will say,

你會發現有好多好多Carl Norden.

"You know what, now we really can

如果你去五角大樓，他們會說

put a bomb inside a pickle barrel

＂你知道嗎？我們現在

at 20,000 ft."

真的能把炸彈從兩萬英尺高的高空

And you know what, it's true; they actually can do that now.

投到一個咸菜桶裡.