Tonight, I want to have a conversation about

今晚，我想談談一個

this incredible global issue

令人難以置信的全球性議題

that's at the intersection of land use, food and environment,

那是關於土地的運用、食物和環境

something we can all relate to,

和我們每個人都有關的事物的交集上

and what I've been calling the other inconvenient truth.

我稱為另一個不願面對的真相

But first, I want to take you on a little journey.

首先，我想帶你走一段旅程

Let's first visit our planet, but at night,

來參觀一下我們的星球

and from space.

不過是在晚上，從外太空來看

This is what our planet looks like from outer space

這是夜晚從外太空看地球的樣子

at nighttime, if you were to take a satellite and travel

如果你搭乘人造衛星繞行這個星球

around the planet. And the thing you would notice first,

你會先注意到的是

of course, is how dominant the human presence

人類現代如何

on our planet is.

主宰我們的地球

We see cities, we see oil fields,

我們看到城市、油田

you can even make out fishing fleets in the sea,

你甚至可以看出在海上的捕魚船隊

that we are dominating much of our planet,

我們主宰了自己星球絕大多數

and mostly through the use of energy

而且大部份是透過能源的運用

that we see here at night.

如同我們現在所看到的夜間地球

But let's go back and drop it a little deeper

讓我們回過頭來再靠近一點

and look during the daytime.

看看白天的樣子

What we see during the day is our landscapes.

在白天我們會看到的是地表

This is part of the Amazon Basin, a place called Rondônia

這是亞馬遜盆地裡的朗多尼亞州

in the south-center part of the Brazilian Amazon.

位在巴西亞馬遜的中南部

If you look really carefully in the upper right-hand corner,

如果你很仔細地看，會發現上方靠右的地方

you're going to see a thin white line,

有一條細細白色的線

which is a road that was built in the 1970s.

那是1970年代時興建的路

If we come back to the same place in 2001,

如果我們看看2001年同一個地點的樣子

what we're going to find is that these roads

我們會看到這些路延伸出許多小路

spurt off more roads, and more roads after that,

然後這些小路又再延伸出更多的小徑

at the end of which is a small clearing in the rainforest

盡頭處是雨林中的林地開墾

where there are going to be a few cows.

裡面有幾頭牛

These cows are used for beef. We're going to eat these cows.

這些牛將會變成牛排，然後被我們吃掉

And these cows are eaten basically in South America,

基本上這些牛會供給南美洲的巴西人和阿根廷人食用

in Brazil and Argentina. They're not being shipped up here.

他們不會被運到這裡

But this kind of fishbone pattern of deforestation

我們會在熱帶附近看到很多這種

is something we notice a lot of around the tropics,

森林砍伐的魚骨圖騰

especially in this part of the world.

尤其是在地球上的這個區域

If we go a little bit further south in our little tour of the world,

如果我們再往地球的南邊走一點

we can go to the Bolivian edge of the Amazon,

可以走到亞馬遜的玻利維亞邊境

here also in 1975, and if you look really carefully,

一樣是在1975年，如果你很仔細地看

there's a thin white line through that kind of seam,

會看到一條細細的白色線穿過那條縫

and there's a lone farmer out there

你會發現在原始叢林的中間

in the middle of the primeval jungle.

有一個孤獨的農夫

Let's come back again a few years later, here in 2003,

讓我們再次回到數年前，在2003年

and we'll see that that landscape actually looks

景色看起來其實有點像愛荷華州

a lot more like Iowa than it does like a rainforest.

而不太像雨林

In fact, what you're seeing here are soybean fields.

事實上，你看到的這個地方是黃豆田

These soybeans are being shipped to Europe and to China

這些黃豆將被送到歐洲和中國 做為動物的飼料

as animal feed, especially after the mad cow disease scare

尤其是大約在十年前左右，在狂牛病爆發開始後

about a decade ago, where we don't want to feed animals

沒有人想要再用動物蛋白質餵食動物

animal protein anymore, because that can transmit disease.

因為這麼做會傳染疾病

Instead, we want to feed them more vegetable proteins.

相反的，我們用更多的植物性蛋白質來餵食動物

So soybeans have really exploded,

因此黃豆的需求激增

showing how trade and globalization are

這顯示了貿易和全球化為什麼

really responsible for the connections to rainforests

需要對雨林和亞馬遜河負責

and the Amazon -- an incredibly strange

這造成了現今

and interconnected world that we have today.

令人難以置信的陌生卻彼此互連的世界

Well, again and again, what we find as we look

在環繞地球的旅程中

around the world in our little tour of the world

我們一而再、再而三的發現

is that landscape after landscape after landscape

景觀不斷地被開墾

have been cleared and altered for growing food

且土地被變更

and other crops.

做為種植食物和作物之用

So one of the questions we've been asking is,

我們常常會被問到：

how much of the world is used to grow food,

世界上有多少地方被拿來種植食物

and where is it exactly, and how can we change that

這些地方在哪裡？我們未來可以如何改變？

into the future, and what does it mean?

以及這代表的意義

Well, our team has been looking at this on a global scale,

我們的團隊以全球的規模

using satellite data and ground-based data kind of to track

使用人造衛星的資料和地表上的資料

farming on a global scale.

來追蹤全球的農業

And this is what we found, and it's startling.

我們發現了讓人非常吃驚的事實

This map shows the presence of agriculture

這個地圖顯示了地球上

on planet Earth.

農業的分佈情形

The green areas are the areas we use to grow crops,

綠色的區域是我們用來種植作物的地方

like wheat or soybeans or corn or rice or whatever.

像是小麥、黃豆、玉米或是稻米之類的

That's 16 million square kilometers' worth of land.

總共是一千六百平方公里的土地

If you put it all together in one place,

如果你把這些土地集中在同一個地方

it'd be the size of South America.

大約是南美洲大小的土地

The second area, in brown, is the world's pastures

再來是咖啡色的區域

and rangelands, where our animals live.

是放牧地或牧場，動物在此居住

That area's about 30 million square kilometers,

這個區域大約是三千萬平方公里

or about an Africa's worth of land,

大概是非洲大小的土地

a huge amount of land, and it's the best land, of course,

你看到的是很大範圍的土地，而且是土質最好的土地

is what you see. And what's left is, like,

左邊的部份

the middle of the Sahara Desert, or Siberia,

應該是撒哈拉沙漠、西伯利亞

or the middle of a rain forest.

或是某個雨林的中央

We're using a planet's worth of land already.

我們已經使用了一個星球的土地了

If we look at this carefully, we find it's about 40 percent

如果我們很仔細地看

of the Earth's land surface is devoted to agriculture,

會發現大約地表百分之四十的土地被用來做農業

and it's 60 times larger

這比我們現在討論的

than all the areas we complain about,

還要大六十倍的土地

our suburban sprawl and our cities where we mostly live.

包含了郊區的荒野土地和大部份人們居住的城市

Half of humanity lives in cities today,

現在有一半的人們住在城市

but a 60-times-larger area is used to grow food.

但是有六十倍大的地區被用來種植食物

So this is an amazing kind of result,

這是十分驚人的結果

and it really shocked us when we looked at that.

當我們看到這項統計時非常震驚

So we're using an enormous amount of land for agriculture,

我們在農業上用了非常大量的土地

but also we're using a lot of water.

而且也用了很大量的水

This is a photograph flying into Arizona,

這是我們飛到亞利桑那州上空的照片

and when you look at it, you're like,

當你仔細看

"What are they growing here?" It turns out

你會想：「他們在這裡種什麼？」

they're growing lettuce in the middle of the desert

其實他們在沙漠中種萵苣

using water sprayed on top.

用噴灑的方式來供給水

Now, the irony is, it's probably sold

現在，諷刺的是

in our supermarket shelves in the Twin Cities.

這些東西會放在大都會區的超市架上販賣

But what's really interesting is, this water's got to come

但是有趣的是

from some place, and it comes from here,

這些水來自於我們所在之處

the Colorado River in North America.

來自北美的科羅納多河

Well, the Colorado on a typical day in the 1950s,

這是科羅納多在1950年代時普通的一天

this is just, you know, not a flood, not a drought,

這張照片看起來就像是平常的日子

kind of an average day, it looks something like this.

沒有洪水或旱災

But if we come back today, during a normal condition

但是如果我們回到今天

to the exact same location, this is what's left.

同樣在平常的日子、同一個地點 是左邊這張圖片的樣子

The difference is mainly irrigating the desert for food,

不同的是現在的河水 主要用來灌溉沙漠的作物

or maybe golf courses in Scottsdale, you take your pick.

或是斯科茨代爾州的高爾夫場

Well, this is a lot of water, and again, we're mining water

這可是很大量的水 同樣地，我們開採水源

and using it to grow food,

然後用這些水來種植作物

and today, if you travel down further down the Colorado,

現在，如果你再往科羅拉多河的南方走

it dries up completely and no longer flows into the ocean.

它已經完全乾涸且不再流向大海

We've literally consumed an entire river in North America

我們為了灌溉北美

for irrigation.

已漸漸地消耗了整條河水

Well, that's not even the worst example in the world.

嗯，這還不是世界上最糟的情況

This probably is: the Aral Sea.

這裡大概是：死海

Now, a lot you will remember this from your geography classes.

多數人記得這裡是因為在地理課時見過

This is in the former Soviet Union

鹹海位於前蘇聯

in between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,

在哈薩克斯坦共和國和烏茲別克斯坦共和國的交界處

one of the great inland seas of the world.

是世界上最大的內陸鹹水湖之一

But there's kind of a paradox here, because it looks like

不過這裡有一個弔詭之處

it's surrounded by desert. Why is this sea here?

因為它看起來被沙漠包圍 哪裡有海？

The reason it's here is because, on the right-hand side,

它會在這裡的原因是

you see two little rivers kind of coming down

你會看到右手邊有兩條小河流向沙漠

through the sand, feeding this basin with water.

供給水到這個盆地

Those rivers are draining snowmelt from mountains

那些河將群山的融雪流向東邊

far to the east, where snow melts, it travels down the river

當雪融化，流向河川，通過沙漠

through the desert, and forms the great Aral Sea.

然後就形成了死海

Well, in the 1950s, the Soviets decided to divert that water

在1950年代，蘇聯決定將水源

to irrigate the desert to grow cotton, believe it or not,

改為灌溉棉田使用

in Kazakhstan, to sell cotton to the international markets

你相信嗎？哈薩克斯坦將棉賣到國際市場

to bring foreign currency into the Soviet Union.

藉此引進國外的貨幣到蘇聯

They really needed the money.

他們很需要這些錢

Well, you can imagine what happens. You turn off

你可以想像會發生什麼事

the water supply to the Aral Sea, what's going to happen?

將供給鹹海的水源關掉，會發生什麼事？

Here it is in 1973,

在1973年

1986,

1986年

1999,

1999年

2004,

2004年

and about 11 months ago.

以及大約11個月前

It's pretty extraordinary.

真的驚人

Now a lot of us in the audience here live in the Midwest.

現在在場的許多觀眾住在美國的中西部

Imagine that was Lake Superior.

想像一下，如果那是蘇必利爾湖

Imagine that was Lake Huron.

或是休倫湖

It's an extraordinary change.

那將會帶來異常的改變

This is not only a change in water and

這不只是水的改變

where the shoreline is, this is a change in the fundamentals

還有海岸線的改變

of the environment of this region.

這是這個區域環境本質上的改變

Let's start with this.

就從我們開始吧

The Soviet Union didn't really have a Sierra Club.

蘇聯沒有塞拉俱樂部（美國自然環境保護團體）

Let's put it that way.

讓我們用相同的方式來進行

So what you find in the bottom of the Aral Sea ain't pretty.

你會發現死海的底部並不怎麼好看

There's a lot of toxic waste, a lot of things

裡頭有很多有毒的廢棄物

that were dumped there that are now becoming airborne.

有很多東西被棄置之後現在變成空氣粒子

One of those small islands that was remote

那些偏僻且難以抵達的小島之一

and impossible to get to was a site

已成為

of Soviet biological weapons testing.

蘇聯生化武器測試的地點了

You can walk there today.

今天你可以在那裡行走

Weather patterns have changed.

然而氣候形態已改變

Nineteen of the unique 20 fish species found only

在死海發現的20種珍貴的魚種當中

in the Aral Sea are now wiped off the face of the Earth.

有19種已在地球上消失滅跡

This is an environmental disaster writ large.

這是生態的大浩劫

But let's bring it home.

讓我們回到美國

This is a picture that Al Gore gave me a few years ago

這是數年前高爾給我的一張相片

that he took when he was in the Soviet Union

他在很久很久以前

a long, long time ago,

去蘇聯時拍的照片

showing the fishing fleets of the Aral Sea.

可以看到有魚船隊在死海中

You see the canal they dug?

你看到他們挖的運河了嗎？

They were so desperate to try to, kind of, float the boats into

他們很絕望的想要試著讓船漂浮到原來的水池中

the remaining pools of water, but they finally had to give up

但是他們終究是放棄了

because the piers and the moorings simply couldn't

因為碼頭和近海區無法保持在

keep up with the retreating shoreline.

不斷退移的海岸線

I don't know about you, but I'm terrified that future

我不認識你

archaeologists will dig this up and write stories about

但是我擔心未來考古學家會將這些東西挖出來

our time in history, and wonder, "What were you thinking?"

然後在歷史中寫下這段故事 並且疑惑：「你們在想什麼？」

Well, that's the future we have to look forward to.

那是我們要面對的未來

We already use about 50 percent of the Earth's fresh water

我們已使用了地球上百分之五十的淡水

that's sustainable, and agriculture alone

那是能夠維持住的

is 70 percent of that.

而其中百分之七十就用在農業

So we use a lot of water, a lot of land for agriculture.

我們為了農業用了很多水和土地

We also use a lot of the atmosphere for agriculture.

我們也在農業上用了許多的大氣層

Usually when we think about the atmosphere,

通常當我們想到大氣層

we think about climate change and greenhouse gases,

我們會想到氣候變遷和溫室氣體

and mostly around energy,

或者通常會和能源有關

but it turns out agriculture is one of the biggest emitters

但結果農業反而是

of greenhouse gases too.

產生溫室氣體最大的來源之一

If you look at carbon dioxide from

如果你觀察燃燒的熱帶雨林

burning tropical rainforest,

所產生的二氧化碳

or methane coming from cows and rice,

或是牛和稻米產生的甲烷

or nitrous oxide from too many fertilizers,

或是無數的肥料所產生的氧化亞氮

it turns out agriculture is 30 percent of the greenhouse

結果是在人類活動裡

gases going into the atmosphere from human activity.

農業製造了百分之三十的溫室氣體進入了大氣裡

That's more than all our transportation.

遠多過於交通運輸工具

It's more than all our electricity.

電器用品

It's more than all other manufacturing, in fact.

以及其它的製造業所產出的量

It's the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases

這是地球上人類所有的行為中

of any human activity in the world.

唯一最大的溫室氣體產出來源

And yet, we don't talk about it very much.

而且我們還沒有談到很多

So we have this incredible presence today of agriculture

今天我們可以看到這個不可思議的情景

dominating our planet,

農業主宰著我們的地球

whether it's 40 percent of our land surface,

先不論它佔了地表百分之四十的土地

70 percent of the water we use,

百分之七十的水

30 percent of our greenhouse gas emissions.

百分之三十的溫室氣體

We've doubled the flows of nitrogen and phosphorus

我們光是在肥料的使用上

around the world simply by using fertilizers,

就製造了兩倍流量的氮和磷

causing huge problems of water quality from rivers,

造成河流、湖、甚至是海洋水質的許多問題

lakes, and even oceans, and it's also the single biggest

而且這也是造成生物滅絕

driver of biodiversity loss.

最重大的因素

So without a doubt, agriculture is

毫無疑問

the single most powerful force unleashed on this planet

農業會是冰河期之後

since the end of the ice age. No question.

引爆這個地球最重大的因素 毫無疑問

And it rivals climate change in importance.

農業與氣候變遷的重要性不相上下

And they're both happening at the same time.

而且這兩件事會同時發生

But what's really important here to remember is that

然而我們要記得最重要的是

it's not all bad. It's not that agriculture's a bad thing.

事情並非這麼糟 農業並非一無是處

In fact, we completely depend on it.

事實上，我們完全仰賴它

It's not optional. It's not a luxury. It's an absolute necessity.

這不是可有可無，也不是奢侈品 這是生活的必須品

We have to provide food and feed and, yeah,

我們需要提供食物、飼料、纖維質

fiber and even biofuels to something like seven billion people

甚至是供給地球上的七十億人所需的生物燃料

in the world today, and if anything,

未來農業的需求

we're going to have the demands on agriculture

將會增加

increase into the future. It's not going to go away.

這件事不會隨風而逝

It's going to get a lot bigger, mainly because of