In two weeks time, that's the ninth anniversary

再過兩週，就是我首次踏上電視競賽節目

of the day I first stepped out onto that hallowed "Jeopardy" set.

「危險邊緣」九週年了。

I mean, nine years is a long time.

九年時間不短。

And given "Jeopardy's" average demographics,

鑒於「危險邊緣」觀眾平均年歲，

I think what that means

我想這意味著

is most of the people who saw me on that show are now dead.

當初看我上節目的大部分觀眾都已離世了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But not all, a few are still alive.

不過，還有些健在的。

Occasionally I still get recognized at the mall or whatever.

偶爾在商場等地方，我也會被人認出來。

And when I do, it's as a bit of a know-it-all.

人們認為我就是個「通天曉」

I think that ship has sailed, it's too late for me.

我想木已成舟，我已無力改變。

For better or for worse, that's what I'm going to be known as,

是好是壞，我就是人們心裡那個，

as the guy who knew a lot of weird stuff.

博識奇異怪事的人。

And I can't complain about this.

對此我也沒有抱怨。

I feel like that was always sort of my destiny,

我常覺得那就是我的命運，

although I had for many years been pretty deeply in the trivia closet.

儘管多年來我一直隱藏對百科知識的著迷。

If nothing else, you realize very quickly as a teenager,

不難料想，少年時你很快會發現，

it is not a hit with girls to know Captain Kirk's middle name.

知道卻克船長的中間名對女生而言沒有任何吸引力。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And as a result, I was sort of the deeply closeted kind of know-it-all for many years.

因此，許久我都算是個韜光養晦的「通天曉」

But if you go further back, if you look at it, it's all there.

不過若你回顧更早些年，一切不言自明。

I was the kind of kid who was always bugging Mom and Dad

小時候，我就經常纏著爸媽

with whatever great fact I had just read about --

興緻勃勃告訴他們書本中讀到的世界奇事

Haley's comet or giant squids

哈雷彗星也好，巨烏賊也好

or the size of the world's biggest pumpkin pie or whatever it was.

或是世上最大的南瓜派有多大，諸如此類。

I now have a 10-year-old of my own who's exactly the same.

我有個十歲的孩子，和我當年一模一樣。

And I know how deeply annoying it is, so karma does work.

因此我知道那多麼煩人，所以說是因果循環。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And I loved game shows, fascinated with game shows.

我喜愛遊戲節目，為此深深著迷。

I remember crying on my first day of kindergarten back in 1979

我記得 1979 年我在上幼稚園的第一天哭了

because it had just hit me, as badly as I wanted to go to school,

因為我突然意識到，儘管我想去上學，

that I was also going to miss "Hollywood Squares" and "Family Feud."

但我會因此錯過「好萊塢廣場」和「家庭問答」

I was going to miss my game shows.

我會錯過喜歡的遊戲節目。

And later, in the mid-'80s,

後來，到了80年代中期，

when "Jeopardy" came back on the air,

當「危險邊緣」重回螢幕，

I remember running home from school every day to watch the show.

我每天放學後都會跑回家看。

It was my favorite show, even before it paid for my house.

它是我最喜歡的節目，當時我還沒有贏得獎金。

And we lived overseas, we lived in South Korea where my dad was working,

我們當時住在韓國，我父親在那兒工作，

where there was only one English language TV channel.

那兒只有一個英語頻道。

There was Armed Forces TV,

叫做武裝力量臺，

and if you didn't speak Korean, that's what you were watching.

如果你不懂韓文就只能看這個臺。

So me and all my friends would run home every day and watch "Jeopardy."

我和我的夥伴們每天都會跑回家看「危險邊緣」

I was always that kind of obsessed trivia kid.

我一直都是那種沉迷於百科知識的孩子。

I remember being able to play Trivial Pursuit against my parents back in the '80s

我記得80年代和我父母玩棋盤遊戲

and holding my own, back when that was a fad.

當時很流行，我玩得不錯。

There's a weird sense of mastery you get

當你知道一些父母不知道的百科知識時

when you know some bit of boomer trivia that Mom and Dad don't know.

會有一種很奇怪的優越感。

You know some Beatles factoid that Dad didn't know.

當你知道一些爸爸都不知道的有關披頭四的傳聞時，

And you think, ah hah, knowledge really is power --

你會想，啊哈，知識果然是力量，

the right fact deployed at exactly the right place.

準確的資訊落到了對的人手裡。

I never had a guidance counselor

沒有一個指導顧問

who thought this was a legitimate career path,

認為這是一個可以從事的職業，

that thought you could major in trivia

認為你可以主修百科，

or be a professional ex-game show contestant.

或成為一個職業的前遊戲競賽選手。

And so I sold out way too young.

我太年輕，就放棄了。

I didn't try to figure out what one does with that.

沒有試著搞清楚如何發揮特長。

I studied computers because I heard that was the thing,

我隨主流，學了電機工程，

and I became a computer programmer --

並成為了一名電腦程序員，

not an especially good one,

成就平平，

not an especially happy one at the time when I was first on "Jeopardy" in 2004.

2004年上節目的時候工作也不是特別開心。

But that's what I was doing.

但當時那是我的生活。

And it made it doubly ironic -- my computer background --

更加諷刺的是，我的電機背景，

a few years later, I think 2009 or so,

在幾年後，大概2009年左右，

when I got another phone call from "Jeopardy" saying,

節目組打電話給我說，

"It's early days yet, but IBM tells us

“現在為時尚早，但IBM告訴我們

they want to build a supercomputer to beat you at 'Jeopardy.'

他們想造一台超級電腦與你競賽。

Are you up for this?"

你有興趣嗎？”

This was the first I'd heard of it.

這是我第一次聽說這種事。

And of course I said yes, for several reasons.

我當然一口答應了，原因有幾點：

One, because playing "Jeopardy" is a great time.

其一，我喜歡參加「危險邊緣」。

It's fun. It's the most fun you can have with your pants on.

它充滿樂趣，是你能穿著褲子做的最有樂趣的事。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And I would do it for nothing.

不用任何回報我都會參加。

I don't think they know that, luckily,

幸好他們當時不知道，

but I would go back and play for Arby's coupons.

但就算給我快餐券我也願意去。

I just love "Jeopardy," and I always have.

我真心熱愛「危險邊緣」，一直都是。

And second of all, because I'm a nerdy guy and this seemed like the future.

其二，我是個書呆子，而電腦看似是未來趨勢。

People playing computers on game shows

遊戲節目上的人機大戰，

was the kind of thing I always imagined would happen in the future,

我一直認為會在未來某天發生。

and now I could be on the stage with it.

而現在我能和它在臺上一決高下。

I was not going to say no.

我肯定不會拒絕。

The third reason I said yes

其三，我一口答應

is because I was pretty confident that I was going to win.

是因為我很有信心可以贏得比賽。

I had taken some artificial intelligence classes.

我上過一些人工智能的課程。

I knew there were no computers that could do what you need to do to win on "Jeopardy."

知道電腦不具備贏得「危險邊緣」的能力。

People don't realize how tough it is to write that kind of program

人們不知道要寫出那樣的程序有多難

that can read a "Jeopardy" clue in a natural language like English

可以聽懂英語這一種人類自然語言的遊戲提示

and understand all the double meanings, the puns, the red herrings,

理解各種雙關和障眼法，

unpack the meaning of the clue.

破解提示中的含義。

The kind of thing that a three- or four-year-old human, little kid could do,

這種事三四歲的孩子可以做，

very hard for a computer.

但對電腦來說很難。

And I thought, well this is going to be child's play.

我當時想，這將是輕而易舉。

Yes, I will come destroy the computer and defend my species.

沒錯，我會打敗電腦捍衛我人類的尊嚴。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But as the years went on,

但幾年過去了，

as IBM started throwing money and manpower and processor speed at this,

IBM在電腦上投入了大量的金錢、人力、高速處理器，

I started to get occasional updates from them,

我開始偶爾聽到他們的進展，

and I started to get a little more worried.

開始有一點擔心。

I remember a journal article about this new question answering software that had a graph.

我記得一篇帶圖文章專門討論過這種答題軟體。

It was a scatter chart showing performance on "Jeopardy,"

那是一個散點圖描述 「危險邊緣」比賽成績，

tens of thousands of dots representing "Jeopardy" champions up at the top

成千上萬個點在頂部代表「危險邊緣」的冠軍們

with their performance plotted on number of --

他們的成績由

I was going to say questions answered, but answers questioned, I guess,

我本來想說的是所回答的問題，但我想應該說是被質疑的答案，標示

clues responded to --

相應的線索-

versus the accuracy of those answers.

來對比答案的準確性。

So there's a certain performance level that the computer would need to get to.

電腦必須達到某一特定的分數水準。

And at first, it was very low.

剛開始，分數很低。

There was no software that could compete at this kind of arena.

沒有哪個軟體可以參加這樣的比賽。

But then you see the line start to go up.

但接著你看到線條開始上走。

And it's getting very close to what they call the winner's cloud.

開始接近所謂的優勝者區域。

And I noticed in the upper right of the scatter chart

我注意到點圖的右上方

some darker dots, some black dots, that were a different color.

有一些較深色的點，和其他黑點顏色不一樣。

And thought, what are these?

我想，這是什麽？

"The black dots in the upper right represent 74-time 'Jeopardy' champion Ken Jennings."

“右上方的黑點代表「危險邊緣」74次冠軍肯·詹寧斯。”

And I saw this line coming for me.

我看到代表電腦的線向我逼近。

And I realized, this is it.

我意識到，原來是這樣。

This is what it looks like when the future comes for you.

這就是未來到來時的樣子。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It's not the Terminator's gun sight;

不是終結者的槍戰場面；

it's a little line coming closer and closer to the thing you can do,

是一條線在不斷地逼近你能做的事，

the only thing that makes you special, the thing you're best at.

唯一讓你非凡的事，你最擅長的事。

And when the game eventually happened about a year later,

一年後，比賽終於舉行了，

it was very different than the "Jeopardy" games I'd been used to.

那和我以前玩的「危險邊緣」很不一樣。

We were not playing in L.A. on the regular "Jeopardy" set.

我們沒在洛杉磯的片場比賽。

Watson does not travel.

電腦沃森不能移動。

Watson's actually huge.

實際上，沃森體積巨大。

It's thousands of processors, a terabyte of memory,

有數以千計的處理器，一兆兆的記憶體容量，

trillions of bytes of memory.

數萬億字節的記憶體容量。

We got to walk through his climate-controlled server room.

我們要走過它恒溫的服務器室。

The only other "Jeopardy" contestant to this day I've ever been inside.

那是到目前為止我唯一造訪過其內部的比賽選手。

And so Watson does not travel.

因為沃森不能移動。

You must come to it; you must make the pilgrimage.

所以你得去找它，去朝聖。

So me and the other human player

所以我和其他選手

wound up at this secret IBM research lab

聚集在這個秘密的IBM實驗室裡，

in the middle of these snowy woods in Westchester County

在威徹斯特郡的雪域森林中，

to play the computer.

和電腦競賽。

And we realized right away

我們立刻意識到

that the computer had a big home court advantage.

電腦有巨大的主場優勢，

There was a big Watson logo in the middle of the stage.

舞臺中央有一個巨大的沃森圖標。

Like you're going to play the Chicago Bulls,

就好像你要對戰芝加哥公牛隊，

and there's the thing in the middle of their court.

球場中央有個大圖標。

And the crowd was full of IBM V.P.s and programmers

觀賽人群中都是IBM的副總和程序員們

cheering on their little darling,

為他們的小寶貝加油，

having poured millions of dollars into this

在花費了數百萬美元後，

hoping against hope that the humans screw up,

盼望人類會輸這一令人絕望結果，

and holding up "Go Watson" signs

高舉“沃森加油”的標誌

and just applauding like pageant moms every time their little darling got one right.

像選美比賽候選人的媽媽一樣，每次寶貝答對一個問題就鼓掌。

I think guys had "W-A-T-S-O-N" written on their bellies in grease paint.

我印象中有人用油脂漆在肚子上寫"沃森"

If you can imagine computer programmers with the letters "W-A-T-S-O-N" written on their gut,

你想像一下程序員們的肚子上寫字

it's an unpleasant sight.

那可不是一幅美景。

But they were right. They were exactly right.

但他們是對的，完全正確。

I don't want to spoil it, if you still have this sitting on your DVR,

如果你還沒看過比賽錄影，我不想透漏劇情，

but Watson won handily.

但沃森輕而易舉地贏了。

And I remember standing there behind the podium

我記得站在講臺後，

as I could hear that little insectoid thumb clicking.

聽到機器人拇指敲擊聲。

It had a robot thumb that was clicking on the buzzer.

它有一個機器拇指按應答鍵。

And you could hear that little tick, tick, tick, tick.

你可以聽到輕輕的咔嗒咔嗒咔嗒聲。

And I remember thinking, this is it.

我記得當時想，這下完了。

I felt obsolete.

我感覺被淘汰了。

I felt like a Detroit factory worker of the '80s

像80年代底特律工廠的工人一樣

seeing a robot that could now do his job on the assembly line.

看著機器人在生產線上做著自己的工作。

I felt like quiz show contestant was now the first job that had become obsolete

我感覺智力競賽參賽者是第一個被

under this new regime of thinking computers.

智能電腦所取代的崗位。

And it hasn't been the last.

而它並不是最後一個。

If you watch the news, you'll see occasionally --

如果你看新聞，就會偶爾看到

and I see this all the time --

而我經常看到

that pharmacists now, there's a machine that can fill prescriptions automatically

比如藥劑師，現在有機器可以自動配藥

without actually needing a human pharmacist.

不需要任何藥劑師的指導。

And a lot of law firms are getting rid of paralegals

許多律師事務所不需要雇傭法務助理

because there's software that can sum up case laws and legal briefs and decisions.

因為有一種軟體可以做案例法、摘要和判決的摘要。

You don't need human assistants for that anymore.

你不需要人類助理了。

I read the other day about a program where you feed it a box score

前幾天我讀到一篇文章說只要你輸入

from a baseball or football game

棒球或足球比賽的成績

and it spits out a news article as if a human had watched the game

它就會自動導出一份報導

and was commenting on it.

就好像是真人看過並做點評的一樣。

And obviously these new technologies can't do as clever or creative a job

顯然這些技術與其所代替的人類相比

as the humans they're replacing,

並不能做得一樣聰明和富有創造力，

but they're faster, and crucially, they're much, much cheaper.

但它們更快，關鍵是它們非常便宜。

So it makes me wonder what the economic effects of this might be.

因此我思考這其中的經濟效益。

I've read economists saying that, as a result of these new technologies,

我曾讀到有經濟學家說，這些技術產生的結果之一

we'll enter a new golden age of leisure

是我們可以進入休閒的黃金時代

when we'll all have time for the things we really love

我們可以把時間花在我們喜歡的事物上

because all these onerous tasks will be taken over by Watson and his digital brethren.

因為那些繁瑣的工作可以交給沃森和它的電子夥伴們。

I've heard other people say quite the opposite,

我也聽過有些人持相反意見，

that this is yet another tier of the middle class

說這是另一層中產階級

that's having the thing they can do taken away from them by a new technology

他們所能做的事情被科技所取代

and that this is actually something ominous,

這是不幸的開始，

something that we should worry about.

值得我們擔心。

I'm not an economist myself.

我不是經濟學家。

All I know is how it felt to be the guy put out of work.

我只知道失去工作的感受，

And it was friggin' demoralizing. It was terrible.

那是沉重的打擊，非常糟糕。

Here's the one thing that I was ever good at,

「危險邊緣」是我至今為止擅長的事，

and all it took was IBM pouring tens of millions of dollars and its smartest people

但只要IBM注以千萬美元投入人才

and thousands of processors working in parallel

外加數以千計的處理器

and they could do the same thing.

就能將我取代。

They could do it a little bit faster and a little better on national TV,

在全國觀眾面前，他們能做的更快更好，

and "I'm sorry, Ken. We don't need you anymore."

“不好意思，肯，我們不需要你了。”

And it made me think, what does this mean,

這讓我思考，這意味著什麽，

if we're going to be able to start outsourcing,

如果我們開始將工作外包，

not just lower unimportant brain functions.

不僅是低級的大腦功能，

I'm sure many of you remember a distant time

我想許多人都記得很久以前

when we had to know phone numbers, when we knew our friends' phone numbers.

我們必須要記住朋友的電話號碼。

And suddenly there was a machine that did that,

突然間，有一種機器可以做到，

and now we don't need to remember that anymore.

現在用不著我們記了。

I have read that there's now actually evidence

我讀到有報導說現在有證據表明

that the hippocampus, the part of our brain that handles spacial relationships,

我們大腦中的海馬體（處理空間關係的組織）

physically shrinks and atrophies

在逐漸萎縮

in people who use tools like GPS,

比如使用GPS的人們，

because we're not exercising our sense of direction anymore.

因為我們不使用方向感了，

We're just obeying a little talking voice on our dashboard.

而是聽從儀錶盤上的語音指揮。

And as a result, a part of our brain that's supposed to do that kind of stuff

結果，大腦中具有該功能的那部份

gets smaller and dumber.

變小變遲鈍了。

And it made me think, what happens when computers are now better

這也使得我思考，如果計算機

at knowing and remembering stuff than we are?

的理解和記憶功能比人類更強大會怎樣？

Is all of our brain going to start to shrink and atrophy like that?

我們的大腦是否都會像那樣萎縮呢？

Are we as a culture going to start to value knowledge less?

人類文明是否會開始輕視知識的價值？

As somebody who has always believed in the importance of the stuff that we know,