And years ago, he made this movie which some of you may have heard of,

有一位演員叫做達斯汀．霍夫曼。

called "The Graduate."

多年前，他拍過一部電影， 你們可能有人聽過，

And there's two key scenes in that movie.

片名叫《畢業生》。

The first one is the seduction scene.

片中有兩個關鍵場景。

I'm not going to talk about that tonight.

第一個場景是色誘。

(Laughter)

但我今晚不會談這個。

The second scene is where he's taken out by the old guy to the pool,

（笑聲）

and as a young college graduate, the old guy basically says one word,

第二個場景是， 他被一個長者帶到泳池邊，

just one word.

那長者對這年輕的大學畢業生 基本上只說了一個字，

And of course, all of you know what that word is.

就一個字。

It's "plastics."

當然，你們都知道是哪個字。

(Laughter)

「塑膠」。

And the only problem with that is, it was completely the wrong advice.

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

那件事唯一的問題就是， 它根本是個錯誤的建議。

Let me tell you why it was so wrong.

［大錯特錯！］ （笑聲）

The word should have been "silicon."

讓我告訴你錯在哪。

And the reason it should have been silicon

那個字應該改成「矽」。

is because the basic patents for semiconductors had already been made,

而它必須改成矽的原因是：

had already been filed,

當時半導體技術剛被研發出來，

and they were already building them.

專利已經送件，

So Silicon Valley was just being built in 1967,

並開始生產。

when this movie was released.

1967 年這部片上映時，

And the year after the movie was released,

矽谷才剛起步。

Intel was founded.

電影上映後的隔年，

So had the graduate heard the right one word,

英特爾才創立。

maybe he would have ended up onstage -- oh, I don't know --

那畢業生當年要是聽到了對的字，

maybe with these two.

也許今天在台上的就是他， 搞不好……

(Laughter)

還是跟這兩個傢伙。

So as you're thinking of that,

［史蒂夫．賈伯斯和比爾．蓋茲］ （笑聲）

let's see what bit of advice we might want to give

當你在思考這件事時，

so that your next graduate doesn't become a Tupperware salesman.

讓我們順便想想該給什麼建議，

(Laughter)

好讓未來的畢業生 不會變成特百惠的業務員。

So in 2015, what word of advice would you give people,

（笑聲）

when you took a college graduate out by the pool

在 2015 年，當你把一位大學 畢業生叫到泳池邊的時候，

and you said one word, just one word?

你會給他們什麼建議？

I think the answer would be "lifecode."

你只能說一個字，就一個字。

So what is "lifecode?"

我認為答案是「生物工程」。

Lifecode is the various ways we have of programming life.

「生物工程」是什麼？

So instead of programming computers,

它代表我們能用來 設計生命的各種途徑。

we're using things to program viruses

設計的不再是電腦程式，

or retroviruses or proteins

而是用生物科技來設計病毒、

or DNA or RNA

反轉錄病毒、蛋白質、

or plants or animals, or a whole series of creatures.

DNA、RNA、

And as you're thinking about this incredible ability

植物、動物或各種各樣的生物。

to make life do what you want it to do,

這樣的神奇能力

what it's programmed to do,

──讓生命為你所用，

what you end up doing

照著設計運作──

is taking what we've been doing for thousands of years,

從本質上來說，

which is breeding, changing,

其實是幾千年來， 我們一直在做的事，

mixing, matching

像是育種、修改、

all kinds of life-forms,

雜交、配對

and we accelerate it.

各種的生命形式，

And this is not something new.

只不過速度大幅加快了。

This humble mustard weed has been modified

這不是什麼新概念。

so that if you change it in one way, you get broccoli.

這個不起眼的野生甘藍已被改造：

And if you change it in a second way, you get kale.

用第一種方式改造它， 你會得到青花菜；

And if you change it in a third way,

用第二種方式，你會得到羽衣甘藍；

you get cauliflower.

用第三種方式的話，

So when you go to these all-natural, organic markets,

你會得到花椰菜。

you're really going to a place

所以，當你走進這些 純天然有機蔬果市場時，

where people have been changing the lifecode of plants for a long time.

你實際上進的

The difference today,

是個植物生命已被 長時間改造的地方。

to pick a completely politically neutral term --

不同以往的是

[Intelligent design]

──挑個政治正確的字眼──

(Laughter)

［智慧設計］

We're beginning to practice intelligent design.

（笑聲）

That means that instead of doing this at random

我們已經開始使用智慧設計。

and seeing what happens over generations,

這意味著，不同於以往的隨機

we're inserting specific genes, we're inserting specific proteins,

和依靠世代交替進行演化，

and we're changing lifecode for very deliberate purposes.

我們插入特定的基因， 插入特定的蛋白質，

And that allows us to accelerate how this stuff happens.

開始非常刻意、 有目的性地改造生命。

Let me just give you one example.

這讓我們能夠加速變化的發生。

Some of you occasionally might think about sex.

讓我舉個例子吧！

And we kind of take it for granted how we've changed sex.

「性行為」可能偶爾會略過你的腦海。

So we think it's perfectly normal and natural to change it.

我們視如今性事的樣貌為理所當然，

What's happened with sex over time is --

而且對這樣的改變習以為常。

normally, sex equals baby, eventually.

性行為最終的結果──

But in today's world,

一般來說，是寶寶。

sex plus pill equals no baby.

但，在現今世界，

(Laughter)

性行為搭配避孕藥，就沒有寶寶了。

And again, we think that's perfectly normal and natural,

（笑聲）

but that has not been the case for most of human history.

儘管我們對此完全習以為常，

And it's not the case for animals.

但在大部分的人類史上並非如此。

What it is does is it gives us control,

對動物而言也不是。

so sex becomes separate from conception.

它賦予了我們控制權，

And as you're thinking of the consequences of that,

讓性與受孕得以分離。

then we've been playing with stuff

當你正思考後果的同時，

that's a little bit more advanced, like art.

人類又更進一步，

Not in the sense of painting and sculpture,

玩起了「ART」。

but in the sense of assisted reproductive technologies.

不是繪畫、雕刻那種藝術（art），

So what are assisted reproductive technologies?

ART 是「輔助生殖技術」的縮寫。

Assisted reproductive technologies are things like in vitro fertilization.

「輔助生殖技術」是什麼？

And when you do in vitro fertilization, there's very good reasons to do it.

「輔助生殖技術」包含了體外受精。

Sometimes you just can't conceive otherwise.

做體外受精有很好的理由。

But when you do that,

有時候，你就是無法 用其他方法受孕。

what you're doing is separating sex, conception, baby.

當你這樣做時，

So you haven't just taken control of when you have a baby,

你就把性、受孕、寶寶 彼此分開來了。

you've separated when the baby and where the baby is fertilized.

所以，你不僅控制了 什麼時候有寶寶，

So you've separated the baby

還控制了寶寶在何時、何地受精。

from the body from the act.

所以，你把寶寶

And as you're thinking of other things we've been doing,

從身體和行為分開來了。

think about twins.

當你在想我們還做了些什麼的時候，

So you can freeze sperm, you can freeze eggs,

想想雙胞胎吧！

you can freeze fertilized eggs.

你可以冷凍精子、卵子，

And what does that mean?

你可以冷凍受精卵。

Well, that's a good thing if you're a cancer patient.

這代表什麼？

You're about to go under chemotherapy or under radiation,

若你是位癌症病患，這就是好事。

so you save these things.

你可以在做化學治療或放射治療前，

You don't irradiate them.

把這些東西存起來，

But if you can save them and you can freeze them,

不讓它們受到輻射。

and you can have a surrogate mother,

但若你可以保存、冷凍它們，

it means that you've decoupled sex from time.

而且還能夠請代理孕母的話，

It means you can have twins born -- oh, in 50 years?

代表何時懷胎也控制在我們手中。

(Laughter)

也就是說，你可以讓雙胞胎中的 另一個出生在……50 年後？

In a hundred years?

［兄：嘿！兄弟！　弟：你誰啊？］ （笑聲）

Two hundred years?

可以 100 年後嗎？

And these are three really profound changes

200 年後呢？

that are not, like, future stuff.

而這三項重大改變

This is stuff we take for granted today.

不是未來的事情。

So this lifecode stuff turns out to be a superpower.

如今這已經廣為人們接受。

It turns out to be this incredibly powerful way of changing viruses,

所以，生物工程是一種超能力。

of changing plants, of changing animals,

這種難以置信的超能力 可以改造病毒、

perhaps even of evolving ourselves.

改造植物、改造動物，

It's something that Steve Gullans and I have been thinking about for a while.

甚至改造我們自己。

Let's have some risks.

史蒂夫．格蘭斯和我 已經思考這件事一陣子了。

Like every powerful technology, like electricity, like an automobile,

讓我們冒一些險吧！

like computers, this stuff potentially can be misused.

每種強大的科技，像是電力、汽車，

And that scares a lot of people.

或是電腦，都有被濫用的可能。

And as you apply these technologies,

這讓很多人感到恐懼。

you can even turn human beings into chimeras.

當你使用這個技術時，

Remember the Greek myth where you mix animals?

你也有可能把人類變成奇美拉。

Well, some of these treatments

記得希臘神話裡的混種動物嗎？

actually end up changing your blood type.

這個技術中的一些治療方法

Or they'll put male cells in a female body or vice versa,

最終將改變你的血型。

which sounds absolutely horrible

有時候，他們會把男性細胞 放到女性身體裡面，反之亦然。

until you realize, the reason you're doing that

聽起來很可怕，

is you're substituting bone marrow during cancer treatments.

但你必須瞭解這麼做的原因──

So by taking somebody else's bone marrow,

有些癌症療程中，會進行骨髓移植。

you may be changing some fundamental aspects of yourself,

當你移植了他人的骨隨，

but you're also saving your life.

你可能會有些本質上的改變，

And as you're thinking about this stuff,

但同時也救了自己一命。

here's something that happened 20 years ago.

在你思考的同時，

This is Emma Ott.

我們說說 20 年前的案例吧！

She's a recent college admittee.

這位是艾瑪．奧特。

She's studying accounting.

她最近成為一位大學錄取生。

She played two varsity sports. She graduated as a valedictorian.

她念的是會計。

And that's not particularly extraordinary,

她是學校兩個校隊的隊員， 畢業時是畢業生代表。

except that she's the first human being born to three parents.

然而，她最特別的地方，

Why?

在於她是世界第一個 擁有「三親」的人類。

Because she had a deadly mitochondrial disease

為何是「三親」？

that she might have inherited.

因為她或許有來自遺傳的

So when you swap out a third person's DNA

致命線粒體疾病。

and you put it in there,

所以，把第三人的 DNA 抽出，

you save the lives of people.

然後移植過去，

But you also are doing germline engineering,

你就挽救了那個人的生命。

which means her kids, if she has kids, will be saved

但你也同時在做生殖工程，

and won't go through this.

意思就是如果她有孩子， 你也救到了她的孩子，

And [their] kids will be saved,

而且不僅如此。

and their grandchildren will be saved,

她孩子的下一代、

and this passes on.

下下一代都因此得救，

That makes people nervous.

並將代代相傳。

So 20 years ago, the various authorities said,

這讓人們緊張。

why don't we study this for a while?

所以 20 年前，各方當權者說，

There are risks to doing stuff, and there are risks to not doing stuff,

為什麼我們不再研究一下？

because there were a couple dozen people saved by this technology,

一件事情做了會有風險， 不做也有其風險。

and then we've been thinking about it for the next 20 years.

這個技術已經實際拯救了很多人，

So as we think about it,

而我們已花了過去的 20 年在思考。

as we take the time to say, "Hey, maybe we should have longer studies,

當我們思考，

maybe we should do this, maybe we should do that,"

並說：「嘿！我們應該 要做更長時間的研究；

there are consequences to acting, and there are consequences to not acting.

我們應該要做這個跟那個……」

Like curing deadly diseases --

同時必須意識到，採取行動 有其後果，不採取行動也是。

which, by the way, is completely unnatural.

像是治療致命的疾病──

It is normal and natural for humans to be felled

當然，完全是非自然的方式。

by massive epidemics of polio, of smallpox, of tuberculosis.

人類染上流行傳染病死亡很正常，

When we put vaccines into people, we are putting unnatural things

小兒麻痺症、天花、肺結核 都是著名的例子。

into their body

當我們注射疫苗時， 就是把非天然的東西

because we think the benefit outweighs the risk.

放進人體，

Because we've built unnatural plants, unnatural animals,

因為我們認為注射疫苗的 利益大過於風險。

we can feed about seven billion people.

因為我們創造了 非天然的植物、動物，

We can do things like create new life-forms.

我們得以餵飽 70 億人口。

And as you create new life-forms, again, that sounds terribly scary

我們可以創造出新的生命形式。

and terribly bothersome,

這聽起來讓人提心吊膽，

until you realize that those life-forms live on your dining room table.

且坐立難安，

Those flowers you've got on your dining room table --

直到你意識到，這樣的生命 就存在於你的餐桌上。

there's not a lot that's natural about them,

你餐桌上的花──

because people have been breeding the flowers to make this color,

它們一點也不天然，

to be this size, to last for a week.

因為人們已經把這些花， 育種成特定顏色、

You don't usually give your loved one wildflowers

特定大小、能活一星期。

because they don't last a whole lot of time.

你不太會送你的愛人野花，

What all this does

因為它們沒辦法活很久。

is it flips Darwin completely on his head.

這些事，

See, for four billion years,

完全顛覆了達爾文的理論。

what lived and died on this planet depended on two principles:

40 億年以來，

on natural selection and random mutation.

兩條準則決定了地球上生物的生死：

And so what lived and died, what was structured,

「天擇」和「隨機突變」。

has now been flipped on its head.

什麼會活著、死去或是被建構，

And what we've done

這樣的準則如今已被徹底改變。

is created this completely parallel evolutionary system

我們所做所為，

where we are practicing unnatural selection and non-random mutation.

創造了完全平行的演化系統，

So let me explain these things.

進行「人擇」與「非隨機突變」。

This is natural selection.

讓我稍做說明。

This is unnatural selection.

這是天擇。

(Laughter)

這是人擇。

So what happens with this stuff is,

（笑聲）

we started breeding wolves thousands of years ago

狗的人擇過程是這樣的：

in central Asia to turn them into dogs.

人類幾千年前在中亞開始養狼，

And then we started turning them into big dogs

將牠們馴化成了狗。

and into little dogs.

接著把牠們變成大狗，

But if you take one of the chihuahuas

變成小狗。

you see in the Hermès bags on Fifth Avenue

但若你把紐約第五大道上

and you let it loose on the African plain,

愛馬仕包包裡的吉娃娃，

you can watch natural selection happen.

拿去非洲大草原野放，

(Laughter)

你就能看到天擇的運作了。

Few things on Earth are less natural than a cornfield.

（笑聲）

You will never, under any scenario, walk through a virgin forest

地球上很少有東西 能比玉米田更不自然。

and see the same plant growing in orderly rows

你怎麼都不可能在原始森林裡，

at the same time,

看到植物排列得如此整齊、

nothing else living there.

生長得如此一致、

When you do a cornfield,

生物相又這麼單一。

you're selecting what lives and what dies.

在玉米田裡，

And you're doing that through unnatural selection.

你決定了什麼活、什麼死。

It's the same with a wheat field, it's the same with a rice field.

你做的就是人擇。

It's the same with a city, it's the same with a suburb.

麥田、稻田裡的狀況也是一樣的。

In fact, half the surface of Earth

城市、郊區裡的狀況仍是一樣的。

has been unnaturally engineered

實際上，地球表面有一半

so that what lives and what dies there is what we want,

已經被人類改變，

which is the reason why you don't have grizzly bears

什麼活、什麼死 都取決於我們的念頭。

walking through downtown Manhattan.

這也是你在曼哈頓市中心

How about this random mutation stuff?

看不到灰熊逛大街的原因。

Well, this is random mutation.

那隨機突變是什麼？

This is Antonio Alfonseca.

這就是隨機突變。

He's otherwise known as the Octopus, his nickname.

這位是安東尼奧．艾方塞卡。

He was the Relief Pitcher of the Year in 2000.

他有個綽號叫「章魚」。

And he had a random mutation that gave him six fingers

他是 2000 年的最佳救援投手。

on each hand,

隨機突變讓他的雙手

which turns out to be really useful if you're a pitcher.

各有六根指頭。

(Laughter)

事實證明，這突變對投手很有用。

How about non-random mutation?

（笑聲）