About 10 years ago, I spoke about an Africa,

崛起中的非洲， 這個說法正面臨著考驗。

an Africa of hope and opportunity,

大約10年前，我談到非洲，

an Africa of entrepreneurs,

一個充滿希望和機會的非洲，

an Africa very different from the Africa that you normally hear about

一個企業家遍佈的非洲，

of death, poverty and disease.

一個與你們通常聽到 充斥著死亡、貧窮和疾病，

And that what I spoke about,

所截然不同的非洲。

became part of what is known now as the narrative of the rising Africa.

當時我所講述的內容，

I want to tell you two stories about this rising Africa.

成了當今崛起中非洲的 故事的一部分。

The first has to do with Rwanda,

我想給你們講兩個關於 崛起中的非洲的故事。

a country that has gone through many trials and tribulations.

第一個和盧安達有關，

And Rwanda has decided to become the technology hub, or a technology hub

一個經歷了許多考驗 和苦難的國家。

on the continent.

盧安達決定成為 科技的樞紐，

It's a country with mountainous and hilly terrain,

或者說是成為非洲大陸的 科技樞紐。

a little bit like here,

盧安達是一個多山、 多丘陵的地方，

so it's very difficult to deliver services to people.

有一點兒像這裡，

So what has Rwanda said?

所以，要給民眾 提供服務特別困難。

In order to save lives, it's going to try using drones

那麼盧安達說了什麼呢？

to deliver lifesaving drugs, vaccines and blood

為了挽救生命， 盧安達將使用無人機

to people in hard-to-reach places

把救命藥品、疫苗和血液，

in partnership with a company called Zipline,

空運給住在偏遠地區的人們，

with UPS, and also with the Gavi, a global vaccine alliance.

同時與Zipline公司，

In doing this, it will save lives.

UPS快遞，和Gavi 全球疫苗聯盟合作，

This is part of the type of innovation we want to see in the rising Africa.

藉此挽救生命。

The second story has to do with something

這是我們想要在崛起中的非洲， 所見到的一種創新形式。

that I'm sure most of you have seen or will remember.

第二個故事，

Very often, countries in Africa suffer drought and floods,

我確信你們大多數人都見過 或記得的事。

and it's getting more frequent because of climate change effects.

非洲國家 經常遭遇旱災和水災，

When this happens, they normally wait for international appeals to raise money.

而且因為氣候變化的影響， 它們發生的頻率越來越高。

You see pictures of children with flies on their faces,

當災害發生時，它們通常 等待國際呼籲來籌錢。

carcasses of dead animals and so on.

你們見過蒼蠅在孩子 臉上的照片，

Now these countries, 32 countries, came together

動物屍體的照片等。

under the auspices of the African Union

現在這32個國家，

and decided to form an organization called the African Risk Capacity.

在非洲聯盟的幫助下， 團結在一起，

What does it do?

並且成立一個 叫「非洲風險承保能量」的組織。

It's a weather-based insurance agency,

這個組織是做什麼的呢？

and what these countries do is to pay insurance each year,

它是一個以天氣風險 為根據的保險機構，

about 3 million dollars a year of their own resources,

這些國家要做的就是 每年支付保險費，

so that in the event they have a difficult drought situation or flood,

每年各自支付大約300萬美元，

this money will be paid out to them,

當它們遇到嚴重的水、旱災時，

which they can then use to take care of their populations,

即可獲得理賠。

instead of waiting for aid to come.

它們可以用這筆錢來照顧人民，

The African Risk Capacity last year paid 26 million dollars

而不是等待救援。

to Mauritania, Senegal and Niger.

「非洲風險承保能量」組織， 去年支付了2,600萬美元

This enabled them to take care of 1.3 million people affected by drought.

給茅利塔尼亞、塞內加爾 和尼日。

They were able to restore livelihoods,

幫助了受旱災影響的130萬人。

buy fodder for cattle, feed children in school

使他們可以重建生計，

and in short keep the populations home instead of migrating out of the area.

給牛買飼料， 養活上學的孩子，

So these are the kinds of stories

總之，讓人們能夠留守家園， 而非迫遷他方。

of an Africa ready to take responsibility for itself,

這些就是關於

and to look for solutions for its own problems.

已經可以為自己負責，

But that narrative is being challenged now

並為自己的問題尋求 解決辦法的非洲故事。

because the continent has not been doing well in the last two years.

但是，那種說法現在面臨考驗。

It had been growing at five percent per annum

因為，非洲大陸在過去的 兩年裡並沒有出色的表現。

for the last one and a half decades,

雖然在過去的15年裡，

but this year's forecast was three percent. Why?

它的經濟是以每年5%在增長。

In an uncertain global environment, commodity prices have fallen.

但是，今年的預測只有3%。 為什麼呢？

Many of the economies are still commodity driven,

在不穩定的全球環境下， 大宗商品價格下跌。

and therefore their performance has slipped.

很多經濟體仍然是 靠大宗商品驅動的，

And now the issue of Brexit doesn't make it any easier.

所以它們的表現變差。

I never knew that the Brexit could happen

現在「英國脫歐」的問題， 沒有讓事情變得更輕鬆。

and that it could be one of the things that would cause global uncertainty

我從不知道「英國脫歐」 真的會發生，

such as we have.

也不知道這會成為引起全球 不穩定的事件之一。

So now we've got this situation,

正如我們一樣。

and I think it's time to take stock

身處在這樣的環境中，

and to say what were the things that the African countries did right?

我認為 是該做全面分析的時候了，

What did they do wrong?

並談談哪些是 非洲國家做對了的事情?

How do we build on all of this and learn lessons

哪些是做錯了的？

so that we can keep Africa rising?

我們如何吸取成功的經驗 並記取失敗的教訓，

So let me talk about six things that I think we did right.

讓非洲繼續地崛起呢？

The first is managing our economies better.

那麼讓我來說說，我認為 我們做對了的六件事。

The '80s and '90s were the lost decades, when Africa was not doing well,

第一件是我們把 經濟管理得更好。

and some of you will remember an "Economist" cover

80年代和90年代是迷失的年代， 當時非洲的狀況並不好，

that said, "The Lost Continent."

你們有些人會想起 《經濟學人》的封面

But in the 2000s, policymakers learned

寫著《失落的大陸》。

that they needed to manage the macroeconomic environment better,

但是在21世紀的時候， 政策制定者意識到

to ensure stability,

他們需要把宏觀經濟環境 管理得更好，

keep inflation low in single digits,

以確保社會經濟的安定；

keep their fiscal deficits low, below three percent of GDP,

將通貨膨脹率 維持在個位數的低點；

give investors, both domestic and foreign,

保持較低的財政赤字， 低於國內生產毛額的3%以下；

some stability so they'll have confidence to invest in these economies.

提供國內、外的投資者，

So that was number one.

穩定的投資環境， 使他們有信心來投資這些經濟體。

Two, debt.

這就是第一件。

In 1994, the debt-to-GDP ratio of African countries was 130 percent,

第二件，債務。

and they didn't have fiscal space.

1994年，非洲國家債務占 國內生產毛額的比例達到130%，

They couldn't use their resources to invest in their development

它們沒有財政空間。

because they were paying debt.

它們不能用自有的資源 來投資所需的發展，

There may be some of you in this room who worked to support African countries

因為它們要還債。

to get debt relief.

在座的一些人， 可能曾為支持非洲國家

So private creditors, multilaterals and bilaterals came together

得到債務免除而努力過。

and decided to do the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative

私人債權人、多邊和雙邊債權人，

and give debt relief.

共聚一起 決定執行「重債窮國倡議」，

So this debt relief in 2005

給予非洲債務免除。

made the debt-to-GDP ratio fall down to about 30 percent,

因此，2005年的債務免除，

and there was enough resources to try and reinvest.

使債務占國內生產毛額的比例 降到30％左右，

The third thing was loss-making enterprises.

讓這些國家有足夠的資源 來嘗試與再投資。

Governments were involved in business

第三件，虧損的企業。

which they had no business being in.

政府參與了

And they were running businesses, they were making losses.

與它們無關的生意。

So some of these enterprises were restructured,

它們經營生意，造成了虧損。

commercialized, privatized or closed,

這些企業，有些經由重組、

and they became less of a burden on government.

商業化、私有化或者是關閉，

The fourth thing was a very interesting thing.

而減輕了政府的負擔。

The telecoms revolution came,

第四件事，是一件很有趣的事。

and African countries jumped on it.

電信革命到來，

In 2000, we had 11 million phone lines.

非洲國家參與其中。

Today, we have about 687 million mobile lines on the continent.

2000年， 我們有1,100萬條電話線。

And this has enabled us

現在，在非洲我們有 6億8,700萬條行動電話線。

to go, move forward with some mobile technology

這使我們可以在

where Africa is actually leading.

一些非洲已領先的電信科技上，

In Kenya, the development of mobile money --

持續向前邁進與發展。

M-Pesa, which all of you have heard about --

在肯亞，行動支付的發展 －

it took some time for the world to notice that Africa was ahead

M-Pesa，你們都聽過的 －

in this particular technology.

經過一段時間，世界才注意到

And this mobile money is also providing a platform

非洲在這項科技上已經領先。

for access to alternative energy.

這個行動支付也為了

You know, people who can now pay for solar

使用替代能源提供了一個平台。

the same way they pay for cards for their telephone.

要知道，人們現在可以 用支付電話費的方式，

So this was a very good development, something that went right.

來支付太陽能的費用。

We also invested more in education and health, not enough,

所以這是一個非常好的發展， 朝正軌發展的好事。

but there were some improvements.

我們也在教育和醫療保健上 投資了更多，

250 million children were immunized in the last one and a half decades.

雖然還不夠，但是有進步了些。

The other thing was that conflicts decreased.

2億5,000萬兒童 在過去的15年內接種了疫苗。

There were many conflicts on the continent.

另一件事是衝突減少了。

Many of you are aware of that.

非洲有很多衝突。

But they came down, and our leaders even managed to dampen some coups.

你們很多人都知道。

New types of conflicts have emerged, and I'll refer to those later.

但是衝突減弱了，我們的領袖 甚至能設法抑制政變。

So based on all this, there's also some differentiation on the continent

新形式的衝突出現了， 我稍後會提及。

that I want you to know about,

基於上述， 我也想讓你們了解，

because even as the doom and gloom is here,

非洲大陸上的一些分歧與差異。

there are some countries -- Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Ethiopia,

因為儘管前景看似不樂觀，

Tanzania and Senegal are performing relatively well at the moment.

一些國家，如 : 象牙海岸、 肯亞、衣索比亞、

But what did we do wrong?

坦尚尼亞和塞內加爾， 目前發展相對較好。

Let me mention eight things.

但是，我們做錯了什麼呢？

You have to have more things wrong than right.

請讓我提及八件事情。

(Laughter)

你做錯的事情一定 比做對的事情還多。

So there are eight things we did wrong.

（笑聲）

The first was that even though we grew, we didn't create enough jobs.

我們有八件事情做錯了。

We didn't create jobs for our youth.

第一件是儘管我們經濟成長， 但是，我們沒有創造足夠的工作，

Youth unemployment on the continent is about 15 percent,

我們沒有為年輕人創造就業機會。

and underemployment is a serious problem.

非洲大陸青年的 失業率大概是15%，

The second thing that we did is that the quality of growth was not good enough.

而且失業是一個嚴重的問題。

Even those jobs we created were low-productivity jobs,

第二件錯事是 經濟發展的品質不夠好。

so we moved people from low-productivity agriculture

就連那些我們創造的工作， 也是低生產力的工作，

to low-productivity commerce and working in the informal sector

我們只是把勞動力從 低生產力的農業

in the urban areas.

轉移到低生產力的商業，

The third thing is that inequality increased.

並讓他們在城市的非正式部門工作。

So we created more billionaires.

第三件事是 貧富不均的差距擴大了。

50 billionaires worth 96 billion dollars

我們創造了更多的億萬富翁。

own more wealth than the bottom 75 million people on the continent.

50位身價960億美元 的億萬富翁，

Poverty,

擁有的財富多過 非洲底層的7,500萬人。

the proportion of people in poverty -- that's the fourth thing -- did decrease,

貧困，

but the absolute numbers did not because of population growth.

貧困人口的比例 － 這是第四件事 － 的確減少了，

And population growth is something

但是因為人口增長， 貧困人口的絕對人數並無減少。

that we don't have enough of a dialogue about on the continent.

人口增長，

And I think we will need to get a handle on it,

在非洲是一個尚未充分 獲得關注與討論的議題。

particularly how we educate girls.

我認為我們需要解決此問題，

That is the road to really working on this particular issue.

尤其是要教育女孩們。

The fifth thing is that we didn't invest enough in infrastructure.

那才是真正解決這個問題的方式。

We had investment from the Chinese.

第五件事是我們在基礎建設上， 沒有投入足夠的資金。

That helped some countries, but it's not enough.

我們有來自中國的投資。

The consumption of electricity in Africa on the continent

那幫助了一些國家， 但是遠遠不夠。

in Sub-Saharan Africa is equivalent to Spain.

撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲國家，

The total consumption is equivalent to that of Spain.

其用電量 相當於西班牙的用電量。

So many people are living in the dark,

這麼多國家的用電量加總， 才等於一個西班牙的總用電量。

and as the President of the African Development Bank said recently,

所以很多人生活在黑暗中，

Africa cannot develop in the dark.

正如非洲開發銀行總裁 最近所說，

The other thing we have not done

非洲不能在黑暗中發展。

is that our economies retain the same structure

另一件我們沒做的事情，

that we've had for decades.

是我們的經濟結構，

So even though we've been growing,

依舊維持著數十年以前的構架。

the structure of the economies has not changed very much.

所以即使我們的經濟成長，

We are still exporting commodities,

但經濟結構並沒有很大的改變。

and exporting commodities is what? It's exporting jobs.

我們依然出口大宗商品，

Our manufacturing value-added is only 11 percent.

出口大宗商品意味著什麼？ 意味著出口了工作機會。

We are not creating enough decent manufacturing jobs for our youth,

我們製造業只增值了11%。

and trade among ourselves is low.

我們沒有為年輕人創造 像樣的製造業工作，

Only about 12 percent of our trade is among ourselves.

我們之間的貿易量很小，

So that's another serious problem.

在我們國家間進行的貿易 只佔12%。

Then governance.

所以那是另一個嚴重的問題。

Governance is a serious issue.

然後是管理。

We have weak institutions,

管理是一個嚴重的問題。

and sometimes nonexistent institutions, and I think this gives way for corruption.

我們的制度很脆弱，

Corruption is an issue that we have not yet gotten a good enough handle on,

有時候制度根本就不存在， 我認為這讓貪腐滋生。

and we have to fight tooth and nail,

貪腐是我們至今未能得到 有效控制的問題，

that and increased transparency in the way we manage our economies

我們必須抗爭到底，

and the way we manage our finances.

增加我們管理經濟的透明度，

We also need to be wary of new conflicts,

管理金融財務的透明度。

new types of conflicts,

我們也需要警惕新的衝突，

such as we have with Boko Haram in my country, Nigeria,

新形式的衝突，

and with Al-Shabaab in Kenya.

比如在我的國家奈及利亞境內， 有博科聖地的恐攻衝突，

We need to partner with international partners,

在肯亞境內 有青年黨的恐攻衝突。

developed countries, to fight this together.

我們需要和國際夥伴、

Otherwise, we create a new reality

已開發國家合作， 共同對抗新衝突。

which is not the type we want for a rising Africa.

否則，我們會製造一個

And finally, the issue of education.

我們不想讓崛起中的非洲， 所面臨的新現實情勢。

Our education systems in many countries are broken.

最後，是教育的問題。

We are not creating the types of skills needed for the future.

我們許多國家的 教育體系出了問題。

So we have to find a way to educate better.

我們沒有創造 因應未來所需的技能。

So those are the things that we are not doing right.

所以，我們必須找到 優化教育的方式。

Now, where do we go from there?

那些就是我們做不對的事情。

I believe that the way forward is to learn to manage success.

現在，我們要何去何從？

Very often, when people succeed or countries succeed,

我相信向前邁進的方法 就是要學會管理成功。

they forget what made them succeed.

通常，當人們或國家 成功的時候，

Learning what you're successful at,

他們會忘記是什麼讓他們成功。

managing it and keeping it is vital for us.

了解你的成功之因，

So all those things I said we did right,

管理它並保持住， 對我們來說至關重要。

we have to learn to do it right again, keep doing it right.

所以，所有我說過的 我們做對了的事情，

Managing the economy while creating stability is vital,

我們必須學會再次做對， 一直做對。

getting prices right, and policy consistency.

管理好經濟， 創造穩定性很重要，

Very often, we are not consistent.

保持價格正確，政策一致。

One regime goes out, another comes in

通常，我們的政策沒有連貫一致。

and they throw away even the functioning policies that were there before.

舊政權結束，而新政權

What does this do?

他們棄置原本就在運作的政策。

It creates uncertainty for people, for households,

這個會造成什麼影響？

uncertainties for business.

造成人們、家庭的不穩定，

They don't know whether and how to invest.

造成商業的不穩定。

Debt: we must manage the success we had in reducing our debt,

他們不知道是否該投資 以及如何投資。

but now countries are back to borrowing again,

債務：我們必須掌管好 我們在減少債務方面的成就，

and we see our debt-to-GDP ratio beginning to creep up,

但是，現在國家又開始借貸，

and in certain countries,

我們見到債務占國內生產毛額 的比例開始逐漸上升，

debt is becoming a problem, so we have to avoid that.

而且在一些國家，

So managing success.

債務成為一個問題， 所以我們必須避免那種情況。

The next thing is focusing with a laser beam

所以要管理好成功。

on those things we did not do well.

下一件事是專注於

First and foremost is infrastructure.

那些我們沒做好的事情上。

Yes, most countries now recognize they have to invest in this,

最重要的是基礎建設。

and they are trying to do the best they can to do that.

是的，大多數國家現在意識到 他們必須投資基礎建設，