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  • Today, more than half of the world's population lives in cities.

    譯者: 審譯者: Helen Chang

  • The urbanization process started in the late 1700s

    如今,世界上超過一半的 人口住在城市裡。

  • and has been increasing since then.

    城市化的發展 始於 1700 年代末期,

  • The prediction is that by 2050,

    並持續增加至今。

  • 66 percent of the population will live in cities

    根據預測,到 2050 年時,

  • and the United Nations, the World Health Organization,

    將會有 66% 的人口住在城市裡,

  • the World Economic Forum, are warning us,

    聯合國屬下的世界衛生組織,

  • if we don't plan for the increased density,

    和世界經濟論壇,警告我們,

  • current problems in our cities, like inequality, congestion, crime

    如果我們不計劃因應 增加的人口密度,

  • can only get worse.

    像不平等、人口擁擠、犯罪等 城市目前面臨的問題,

  • As a result, urban planners and city developers

    只會變得更糟糕。

  • are putting a lot of effort and creativity

    所以,規劃和發展城市的人

  • in designing our future, denser, bigger cities.

    砸下大把功夫和創新

  • But I have a different opinion.

    來設計我們未來人口更密集、 規模更大的城市。

  • I think urbanization is actually reaching the end of its cycle,

    可是我有不同的觀點。

  • and now people are going to start moving back to the countryside.

    我認為城市化實際上 已經達到它循環週期的盡頭了,

  • And you may think, "But what about the trend?"

    如今人們開始住回鄉村。

  • Well, let me tell you,

    你或許納悶:「關於那趨勢呢?」

  • socioeconomic trends don't last forever.

    好,讓我來告訴你,

  • You know, 12,000 years ago

    社會經濟趨勢並不永續。

  • everybody was perfectly happy

    要知道,在一萬兩千年前,

  • roaming the land, hunting and gathering.

    每個人都開心地

  • And then, the trend changes,

    在土地上漫遊、打獵和聚居。

  • and the new thing is to live in a farm and have cattle,

    然後趨勢變了,

  • until it changes again.

    農牧業開始發展,

  • When we get to the industrial revolution.

    直到趨勢再度改變,

  • Actually, that is what started the urbanization process.

    我們到來工業革命。

  • And you know what triggered it?

    實際上,那是城市化發展的起始。

  • Steam power, machines,

    你知道是什麼觸發的嗎?

  • new chemical processes --

    是蒸汽動力、機械、

  • in two words, technological innovation.

    新的化學加工,

  • And I believe technology can also bring the end of this cycle.

    總結成兩個字,就是科技創新。

  • I've been working on innovation for most of my career.

    我也相信科技也會終止這個循環。

  • I love it. I love my job.

    我的大半職涯一直在創新。

  • It allows me to work with drones, with 3D printers and smart glasses,

    我愛創新,我愛我的職業,

  • and not just those you can buy in the shop but also prototypes.

    我的工作用到無人機、 3D 列印機,和智能眼鏡,

  • It's a lot of fun sometimes.

    不只是商場裡買得到的成品, 還包括樣板原型。

  • Now, some of these technologies

    有時候非常的有趣。

  • are opening new possibilities that will radically change

    其中的一些科技

  • the way we did things before

    正在開創新的遠景,

  • and in a few years,

    我們做事的方式將會在

  • they may allow us to enjoy the benefits of city life

    短短幾年內從本質上產生巨變,

  • from anywhere.

    使我們得以享受城市生活的好處,

  • Think about it.

    不論身在何處。

  • If you could live in a place with a lower crime rate

    思考一下!

  • and more space

    如果你能住在犯罪率低、

  • and a lower cost of living

    空間大、

  • and less traffic,

    消費低、

  • of course many people would want that,

    交通不擁擠的地方;

  • but they feel they don't have a choice.

    那當然是許多人的盼望,

  • You have to live in the city.

    但他們未必有這樣的選項,

  • Well, in the past, people moved to the cities

    只好住在城市裡。

  • not because they loved the city itself

    好,過去人們移居城市

  • but for the things you could have in a city,

    不是因為他們喜歡城市本身,

  • more job opportunities,

    而是為了在城市裡能得到的東西:

  • easier access to services and goods

    更多就業機會、

  • and a rich social life.

    更容易獲得服務設施、

  • So let's dive deeper.

    以及更豐富的社交生活。

  • More jobs and career opportunities.

    讓我們進一步探討。

  • Is that still true today,

    城市裡有更多的就業和陞遷機會

  • because the office people are starting to realize

    今天仍然是事實,

  • that working in the office and being in the office

    因為那些白領階級開始意識到

  • may not be the same thing anymore.

    在公司裡工作和「待」在公司裡

  • According to a study by Global Workplace Analytics,

    不盡然是同一回事了。

  • more than 80 percent of the US workforce would like to work from home.

    根據全球就業分析的研究,

  • And do you know how much it costs for a company to even have an office?

    超過 80% 的美國勞動者 願意在家工作。

  • 11,000 dollars per employee per year.

    你可知道公司設立一間辦公室 得要花多少錢嗎?

  • If only half of those workers

    每個員工一年要花 11,000 美元。

  • would telework even 50 percent of the time,

    如果半數的員工

  • the savings in the states would exceed 500 billion dollars,

    有一半的時間遠距工作,

  • and it could reduce greenhouse gases by 54 million tons.

    可為美國省下超過五百億美元,

  • That is the equivalent

    還可減少 5400 萬噸的 溫室氣體排放,

  • of 10 million cars off the streets for a whole year.

    這就相當於

  • But even though most people would want to telework,

    街道上一年少了 一千萬汽車的排放量。

  • current technology makes the experience isolating.

    但即使大多數人想遠距辦公,

  • It's not comfortable.

    當前的科技讓人感到與世隔離,

  • It doesn't feel like being there.

    讓人感到不舒服,

  • But that is going to change

    和在辦公室裡的感覺不一樣。

  • by the convergence of two technologies:

    但這會因融入兩種 新興的科技而改變:

  • augmented reality and telepresence robots.

    擴增實境科技,和遠端臨場機器人。

  • Augmented reality already today

    如今的擴增實境科技

  • allows you to take your office environment everywhere with you.

    能讓你把辦公室的氛圍 帶到每個地點,

  • All you need is a wearable computer, a pair of smart glasses,

    只需要一台電腦和一副智能眼鏡,

  • and you can take your emails and your spreadsheets

    你就可以帶著郵件和電子圖表

  • with you wherever you go.

    到處走了。

  • And video conferences and video calls have become very common these days,

    如今視訊會議和通話變得十分普遍,

  • but they still need improvement.

    但仍有改進的空間。

  • I mean, all those little faces on a flat screen,

    我的意思是,那些顯示在 平面螢幕上的小小臉孔,

  • sometimes you don't even know who is talking.

    有時候你根本不知道到底誰在講話。

  • Now, we already have something way better than static videocalls:

    現在我們已有比 靜態視訊通話更好的東西:

  • your average telepresence robot.

    遠端臨場機器人。

  • I call it tablet on a stick.

    我稱它為桿子上的平板電腦。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • You can control, you can move around,

    你可以控制它、隨意移動它,

  • you can control what you're looking at.

    可以控制你的視線範圍。

  • It's way better, but far from perfect.

    這是改進了的產品, 但是離完美還遠得很。

  • You know how they say

    你們知道常言道

  • that most human communication is nonverbal?

    多數人以無聲交流吧?

  • Well, the robot doesn't give you any of that.

    但機器人可不會無聲交流,

  • It looks like an alien.

    它看上去就像是個外星人。

  • But with advances in augmented reality,

    但是透過擴增實境,

  • it will be easy to wrap the robot in a nice hologram

    可以很輕易地把機器人 用個好的全息投影包裝起來,

  • that actually looks and moves like a person.

    使它看起來像人,動起來像人,

  • That will do it.

    那就夠了。

  • Or else, forget the robot.

    或者這樣,別管機器人,

  • We go full VR,

    我們用全副的虛擬實境,

  • and everybody meets in cyberspace.

    每個人都在網路世界裡相遇。

  • Give it a couple of years and that will feel so real,

    再過幾年的時間,

  • you won't tell the difference.

    就會逼真到讓你辨不出 它和現實世界有任何差別。

  • So what was the next reason why people move to cities?

    大家遷徙到城市居住的 另一個原因是什麼呢?

  • Access to services and goods.

    為要能夠得到更多的服務和物品,

  • But today you can do all that online.

    但是現在你都可以在網上解決。

  • According to a study made by comScore,

    根據網站數據測量公司 comScore 的一份研究,

  • online shoppers in the US last year

    去年美國的網購者

  • did more than half of their retail purchases online,

    在網上採購過半的零售品,

  • and the global market for e-commerce

    全球市場的網上貿易額

  • is estimated to be at two trillion dollars.

    估計將達到兩兆美元。

  • And it's expected to reach 2.38 by the end of 2017,

    預期在 2017 年底 可望達到 2.38 兆美元,

  • according to eMarketer.

    資料來自市場研究機構 eMarketer。

  • Now, from a logistics standpoint,

    從物流的立場來看,

  • density is good for deliveries.

    密度有利於送貨。

  • Supplying goods to a shopping mall is easy.

    把貨物供應給商場很簡單,

  • You can send big shipments to the shop,

    把一大批的貨物寄到商店,

  • and people will go there, pick it up and take it home themselves.

    然後顧客上門提貨自己帶回家。

  • E-commerce means we need to ship onesies

    網路貿易代表單件商品

  • and have them home delivered.

    必須被直接寄到顧客的家中,

  • That's more expensive.

    運費貴得多了。

  • It's like the difference between having a birthday party for 20 people

    就好比是邀請二十個人 來參加生日派對,

  • or bringing a piece of the cake

    或是將每塊生日蛋糕

  • to each of your 20 friends at their place.

    分別送到二十個人的家中。

  • But at least in the city,

    但至少在城市裡,

  • they live close to each other.

    人們住得相對近,

  • Density helps.

    人口密度是有利的。

  • Now, e-commerce deliveries in the countryside,

    而網購郵寄包裹到鄉下

  • those take forever.

    需要很長的時間才能到貨。

  • The truck sometimes needs to drive miles between one address and the next one.

    有時候卡車得要 開長距離到下一個地址,

  • Those are the most expensive deliveries of all.

    那是所有遞送中最貴的了。

  • But we already have a solution for that:

    但是我們已經有解決方案了:

  • drones.

    無人機。

  • A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones.

    一輛車載著一隊的無人機。

  • The driver does some of the deliveries

    司機只需要遞送一部分,

  • while the drones are flying back and forth from the truck as it moves.

    而在卡車遞送的過程中, 由無人機來回送貨。

  • That way, the average cost for delivery is reduced,

    這樣一來,減少了平均的遞送花費,

  • and voila:

    瞧:

  • affordable e-commerce services in the countryside.

    鄉村也可以有實惠的網路貿易服務。

  • You will see:

    你會看到:

  • the new homes of our teleworkers

    在遠距辦公者住家的院子裡

  • will probably have a drone pod in the yard.

    可能就會裝置著無人機的卡座。

  • So once the final mile delivery is not a problem,

    一旦最後一里路的遞送不再是問題,

  • you don't need to be in the city to buy things anymore.

    你就不需要在城市裡買東西了。

  • So that's two.

    那是第二個理由。

  • Now, what was the third reason why people move to cities?

    人們移居到城市的 第三個原因是什麼?

  • A rich social life.

    是豐富的社交生活。

  • They would need to be in the city for that these days.

    如今,豐富的社交生活 得要待在城市裡。

  • Because people these days,

    現在的人交友、

  • they make friends, they chat, gossip and flirt

    交流、八卦和調情,

  • from the comfort of their sofa.

    都能窩在自家的沙發裡做,

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And while wearing their favorite pajamas.

    身上穿著自己喜歡的睡衣。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • There are over two billion active social media users in the world.

    現在全世界有二十億 活躍的社交媒體用戶。

  • In a way, that makes you think like we are connected

    從某種方面來看,我們互相聯繫著,

  • no matter where we are.

    不管我們身在那裡。

  • But OK, not completely.

    但好吧,不盡然如此。

  • Sometimes you still need some real human contact.

    有時候還是需要一些 真正人與人之間的交流的。

  • Ironically, the city, with its population density,

    諷刺的是,雖然城市有高人口密度,

  • is not always the best for that.

    但卻不總是適合交友的地方。

  • Actually, as social groups become smaller,

    事實上,社交圈越小就越牢固。

  • they grow stronger.

    英國國家數據庫的近期研究

  • A recent study made in the UK

    顯示居住在農村的人

  • by the Office for National Statistics

    有更高的生活幸福指數。

  • showed a higher life satisfaction rating

    人們定居於鄉村,

  • among people living in rural areas.

    他們買當地的雜貨、

  • So as people settle in the countryside,

    新鮮的雜貨、食物,和維修服務。

  • well, they will buy local groceries,

    使水電工、小商鋪和服務公司興旺。

  • fresh groceries, foodstuff,

    可能有些城市工人

  • maintenance services.

    被自動化取代而失了業,

  • So handymen, small workshops, service companies will thrive.

    會在鄉村找到更好的 替代工作而遷居。

  • Maybe some of the industrial workers from the cities

    當人們移居鄉間會怎樣呢?

  • displaced by the automation

    試想獨立自主的生活:

  • will find a nice alternative job here,

    房子裝有自給自足的太陽能板,

  • and they will move too.

    有風力發電機、 垃圾廢水回收再利用的設備,

  • And as people move to the countryside,

    新家使用自產的電源, 用來給自家的汽車充電。

  • how is that going to be?

    我的意思是,城市一向 被視為更有效地使用能源,

  • Think about autonomous,

    但是讓我告訴你,

  • off-the-grid houses with solar panels,

    居民返居鄉間,也可以變得環保。

  • with wind turbines and waste recycling utilities,

    現在你可能想著鄉居的好處。

  • our new homes producing their own energy and using it to also power the family car.

    (笑聲)

  • I mean, cities have always been regarded as being more energy-efficient,

    我自己就移居到鄉間。

  • but let me tell you,

    六年前,妻子和我打包了家當,

  • repopulating the countryside can be eco too.

    賣了我們在西班牙的小公寓,

  • By now, you're probably thinking of all the advantages of country living.

    用那些錢買了一個有花園的房子,

  • (Laughter)

    每天早上都能聽見鳥在唱歌。

  • I did it myself.

    (笑聲)

  • Six years ago, my wife and I, we packed our stuff,

    那個環境太好了!

  • we sold our little apartment in Spain,

    我們住的小村莊還不算太鄉下。

  • and for the same money we bought a house with a garden

    但那是我下一步的計畫:

  • and little birds that come singing in the morning.

    整修一個農場,

  • (Laughter)

    離城市不遠也不近,

  • It's so nice there.

    確保有個無人機降落的地點。

  • And we live in a small village, not really the countryside yet.

    (笑聲)

  • That is going to be my next move:

    不過,嘿,那是我的盤算,

  • a refurbished farmhouse,

    未必是你的。

  • not too far from a city, not too close.

    因為看起來好像我在嘗試說服你們

  • And now we'll make sure to have a good spot for drones to land.

    跟我一起移居到鄉間生活。

  • (Laughter)

    我可沒有。

  • But hey, that's me.

    (笑聲)

  • It doesn't have to be you,

    我不要更多人住進來。

  • because it would seem like I'm trying to convince somebody

    (笑聲)

  • to come join us in the country.

    我只是認為人們會移居鄉間,

  • I'm not.

    一旦他們意識到鄉間 和城市有同樣的好處。

  • (Laughter)

    但是如果你不喜歡鄉村,

  • I don't need more people to come.

    我也有好消息要告訴你。

  • (Laughter)

    城市不會消失。

  • I just think they will

    但是當人們遷出,

  • once they realize they can have the same benefits the city has.

    降低的人口密度 有助於城市的管理和平衡。

  • But if you don't like the country,

    不管怎麼樣,我猜你們會思考的。

  • I have good news for you, too.

    你們仍覺得需要住在城市裡嗎?

  • Cities will not disappear.

    更重要的是,

  • But as people move out,

    你們「想要」住在城市裡嗎?

  • a lower density will help them recover a better flow and balance.

    謝謝大家!

  • Anyway, I guess now you have some thinking to do.

    (掌聲)

  • Do you still think you need to live in the city?

  • And more importantly,

  • do you want to?

  • Thank you very much.

  • (Applause)

Today, more than half of the world's population lives in cities.

譯者: 審譯者: Helen Chang

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B1 US TED 城市 鄉間 移居 人口 密度

【TED】朱利奧-吉爾:未來科技將給你帶來任何地方的城市生活的好處(未來科技將給你帶來任何地方的城市生活的好處|朱利奧-吉爾)。 (【TED】Julio Gil: Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere (Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere | Julio Gil))

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    Zenn posted on 2021/01/14
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