what do you think about?

當有人提到古巴，

Classic, classic cars?

你會想到什麼？

Perhaps good cigars?

經典，經典的車子？

Maybe you think of a famous baseball player.

或是高檔雪茄？

What about when somebody mentions North Korea?

也許你想到的是知名的棒球員。

You think about those missile tests,

那如果有人提到北韓呢？

maybe their notorious leader

你會想到的是那些飛彈測試，

or his good friend, Dennis Rodman.

也許是那位惡名昭彰的領導者，

(Laughter)

或是他的好朋友，丹尼斯羅德曼。

One thing that likely doesn't come to mind

（笑聲）

is a vision of a country,

有一樣東西通常不會被想到，

an open economy,

就是一個國家的遠景，

whose citizens have access to a wide range of affordable consumer products.

一個開放的經濟體，

I'm not here to argue how these countries got to where they are today.

如何讓他的人民取得各種 他們可付擔得起的消費產品。

I simply want to use them as an example of countries and citizens

我並不是來這裡爭論這些國家 是如何走到今天這一步的。

who have been affected, negatively affected,

我只是想要用它們當作例子，

by a trade policy that restricts imports

來說明國家及人民 會因為限制進口政策

and protects local industries.

以及保護本土產業主義

Recently we've heard a number of countries

而造成負面影響。

talk about restricting imports

最近，我們聽到有不少國家

and protecting their local, domestic industries.

在談論要限制進口，

Now, this may sound fine in a sound bite,

藉以保護它們的本土產業。

but what it really is is protectionism.

乍聽之下，這想法聽起來沒問題，

We heard a lot about this during the 2016 presidential election.

但它其實只是一種保護主義。

We heard about it during the Brexit debates

在 2016 年的總統大選時， 我們常聽到這個議題。

and most recently during the French elections.

在英國脫歐的辯論中 我們也常聽到它，

In fact, it's been a really important topic

最近，在法國選舉中也會聽到。

being talked about around the world,

事實上，它一直是個全世界

and many aspiring political leaders

都在談論的重要主題，

are running on platforms positioning protectionism as a good thing.

且許多有抱負的政治領袖

Now, I could see why they think protectionism is good,

不斷地在演說中說明 保護主義是件好事。

because sometimes it seems like trade is unfair.

我可以了解為何他們認為 保護主義是好的，

Some have blamed trade

因為，有時候，貿易看起來 似乎是不公平的。

for some of the problems we've been having here at home in the US.

有些人會怪罪貿易，

For years we've been hearing

我們在自家美國所發生的 一些問題都是貿易的錯。

about the loss of high-paying US manufacturing jobs.

多年來，我們都不斷聽到

Many think that manufacturing is declining in the US

高薪的美國製造業工作在減少。

because companies are moving their operations offshore

許多人認為，在美國， 製造業在走下坡，

to markets with lower-cost labor

是因為公司把它們的 營運移到海外去，

like China, Mexico and Vietnam.

移到低成本勞工的市場，

They also think trade agreements sometimes are unfair,

比如中國、墨西哥、越南。

like NAFTA

他們也認為，貿易協定 有時候是不公平的，

and the Trans-Pacific Partnership,

如北美自由貿易協定、

because these trade agreements allow companies

以及跨太平洋夥伴關係，

to reimport those cheaply produced goods back into the US

因為這些貿易協定讓公司

and other countries from where the jobs were taken.

可以將那些便宜製造的商品 重新進口回來美國，

So it kind of feels like the exporters win

以及其它工作機會被搶走的國家。

and the importers lose.

所以這種感覺有點像是，出口者贏，

Now, the reality is

進口者輸。

output in the manufacturing sector in the US

現實則是，

is actually growing,

在美國，製造業的出口

but we are losing jobs.

其實在成長，

We're losing lots of them.

但我們的工作在減少。

In fact, from 2000 to 2010,

我們的工作減少很多。

5.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost.

事實上，從 2000 年到 2010 年，

But they're not being lost for the reasons you might think.

就減少了 570 萬個製造業工作。

Mike Johnson in Toledo, Ohio

但這些工作之所以減少的原因

didn't lose his jobs at the factory

和你想的不同。

to Miguel Sanchez in Monterrey, Mexico.

俄亥俄州托利多市的麥克強生，

No.

他丟掉工作的原因並不是輸給

Mike lost his job to a machine.

墨西哥蒙特雷市的米戈山切斯。

87 percent of lost manufacturing jobs

不是。

have been eliminated because we've made improvements

麥克丟掉工作的原因， 是因為一台機器。

in our own productivity through automation.

87% 的製造業工作機會消失，

So that means that one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs

是因為我們用自動化

was due to offshoring.

改善了我們自己的生產力而造成的。

Now, this is not just a US phenomenon.

那意味著，每十個 被縮減掉的製造業工作中，

No.

只有一個是因為外移造成的。

In fact, automation is spreading to every production line

這不只是在美國才有的現象。

in every country around the world.

不是。

But look, I get it:

事實上，自動化遍及了

if you just lost your job

全世界每一個國家的每一條生產線。

and then you read in the newspaper

但，我懂：

that your old company just struck up a deal with China,

如果你剛丟了你的工作，

it's easy to think you were just replaced

接著你在報紙上讀到

in a one-for-one deal.

你原本的公司剛剛和中國簽了協議，

When I hear stories like this, I think that what people picture

很容易就會聯想到，

is that trade happens between only two countries.

你是被一個換一個的 協議所取代掉的。

Manufacturers in one country

當我聽到像這樣的故事， 我認為人們所想像的是，

produce products and they export them

貿易只發生在兩個國家之間。

to consumers in other countries,

製造商在一個國家

and it feels like the manufacturing countries win

生產產品然後出口銷售給

and the importing countries lose.

另一個國家的消費者，

Well, reality's a little bit different.

感覺就像是製造國贏，

I'm a supply chain professional,

而進口國輸。

and I live and work in Mexico.

嗯，現實有點不同。

And I work in the middle

我是供應鏈專家，

of a highly connected network of manufacturers

我住在墨西哥，也在那裡工作。

all collaborating from around the world

而我在一個

to produce many of the products we use today.

高度連結的製造商網路中工作，

What I see

這些世界各地的製造商彼此合作，

from my front-row seat in Mexico City

來生產出許多現今我們使用的產品。

actually looks more like this.

我在墨西哥市

And this is a more accurate depiction of what trade really looks like.

最接近最清楚的位置所看到的，

I've had the pleasure of being able to see

其實比較像是這樣。

how many different products are manufactured,

這個對貿易的描繪，算是 較精確也較接近真實情況。

from golf clubs to laptop computers

我有榮幸能夠看到

to internet servers, automobiles

許多不同的產品是如何製造出來的，

and even airplanes.

從高爾夫球桿到筆記型電腦，

And believe me, none of it happens in a straight line.

到網際網路服務、汽車、

Let me give you an example.

甚至飛機。

A few months ago, I was touring the manufacturing plant

相信我，這些發生過程 都不是直線的。

of a multinational aerospace company

讓我舉個例子。

in Querétaro, Mexico,

幾個月前，我去墨西哥

and the VP of logistics points out a completed tail assembly.

巡視一間跨國航太公司

It turns out the tail assemblies are assembled from panels

位在克雷塔羅的製造工廠，

that are manufactured in France,

物流管理副總比了一個 組裝完成的尾翼。

and they're assembled in Mexico

結果，那尾翼是用

using components imported from the US.

法國製造的鑲板來組裝的，

When those tail assemblies are done,

而組裝是在墨西哥進行，

they're exported via truck to Canada

使用的元件從美國進口。

to their primary assembly plant

尾翼的組裝完成後，

where they come together

會被卡車載到加拿大，

with thousands of other parts,

到它們的主要組裝工廠，

like the wings and the seats

在那間工廠裡，

and the little shades over the little windows,

它們和其它數千個零件 會被組裝起來，

all coming in to become a part of a new airplane.

比如機翼和座椅，

Think about it.

和小窗戶上面的小遮光板，

These new airplanes,

全都組合起來， 成為新飛機的一部份。

before they even take their first flight,

想想看。

they have more stamps in their passports

這些新飛機，

than Angelina Jolie.

在第一次飛行之前，

Now, this approach to processing goes on all around the world

它們護照上的戳章數目就已經勝過

to manufacture many of the products

安潔莉娜裘莉了。

we use every day,

全世界都在用這個方式運轉，

from skin cream to airplanes.

來製造出我們每天

When you go home tonight, take a look in your house.

使用的日常用品，

You might be surprised to find a label that looks like this one:

從護膚乳液到飛機。

"Manufactured in the USA from US and foreign parts."

你晚上回家時，看看你的房子，

Economist Michael Porter

你可能會很驚訝地發現 像這樣子的標籤：

described what's going on here best.

「美國製造；零件：美國及外國。」

Many decades ago, he said that it's most beneficial for a country

經濟學家麥可波特

to focus on producing the products it can produce most efficiently

對這個情況的描述是最貼切的。

and trading for the rest.

數十年前，他說，

So what he's talking about here is shared production,

對一個國家來說，最有益的做法是

and efficiency is the name of the game.

著重生產該國最有生產效能的產品，

You've probably seen an example of this

其餘的則用貿易取得。

at home or at work.

所以，他在談的就是共享生產，

Let's take a look at an example.

而這個遊戲的名字就叫做效率。

Think about how your house was built

你可能在家或在工作時有看過

or your kitchen renovated.

相關的例子。

Typically, there's a general contractor

我們先來看個例子。

who is responsible for coordinating the efforts

想想看你的房子是怎麼建造的、

of all the different contractors:

或廚房是怎麼翻修的。

an architect to draw the plans,

通常，會有一個總包商，

an earth-moving company to dig the foundation,

它的責任是協調所有各個

a plumber, a carpenter and so on.

包商之間的工作：

So why doesn't the general contractor

一名建築師來畫設計圖、

pick just one company

一家運土公司來挖地基、

to do all the work,

一個水電工、一個木匠，等等。

like, say, the architect?

為什麼總包商不要

Because this is silly.

只選一家公司，

The general contractor selects experts

比如選建築師，

because it takes years

來做所有工作？

to learn and master

因為這樣很蠢。

how to do each of the tasks it takes to build a house or renovate a kitchen,

總包商會選專家，

some of them requiring special training.

因為需要花上數年時間，

Think about it:

才能學會和精通

Would you want your architect to install your toilet?

建造一間房子或翻修一間廚房 所需要的工作任務，

Of course not.

有些工作任務還需要特別訓練。

So let's apply this process to the corporate world.

想想看：

Companies today focus on manufacturing

你會想要你的建築師 來安裝你的馬桶嗎？

what they produce best and most efficiently,

當然不想。

and they trade for everything else.

所以，我們把這個過程 應用到企業的世界。

So this means they rely

現今的公司會著重在製造

on a global, interconnected, interdependent network of manufacturers

它們最擅長、且能 最有效率生產的東西，

to produce these products.

其他的東西就靠貿易來取得。

In fact, that network is so interconnected

這意味著，它們仰賴

it's almost impossible

一個互相連結、互存共生的 全球製造商網路

to dismantle and produce products in just one country.

來生產這些產品。

Let's take a look at the interconnected web

事實上，那個網路的相互連結性

we saw a few moments ago,

緊密到幾乎不可能

and let's focus on just one strand

把它拆開，然後只在 一個國家生產產品。

between the US and Mexico.

我們來看看剛才的

The Wilson Institute says that shared production represents

相互連結網路圖，

40 percent of the half a trillion dollars in trade between the US and Mexico.

我們把焦點放在美國和墨西哥

That's about 200 billion dollars,

之間的這個部份就好。

or the same as the GDP for Portugal.

威爾遜機構說，共享生產就佔了

So let's just imagine

美國和墨西哥間共 五千億美元之貿易的 40%。

that the US decides to impose

那就是大約兩千億美元，

a 20 percent border tax on all imports from Mexico.

等同於葡萄牙的國內生產總值。

OK, fine.

我們來想像一下，

But do you think Mexico is just going to stand by and let that happen?

如果美國決定要針對所有來自

No. No way.

墨西哥的進口， 施加 20% 的邊境稅。

So in retaliation, they impose a similar tax

好，沒問題。

on all goods being imported from the US,

但，你認為墨西哥會 袖手旁觀讓它發生嗎？

and a little game of tit-for-tat ensues,

不會，不可能。

and 20 percent -- just imagine that 20 percent duties

為了報復，他們會針對從美國

are added to every good, product, product component

進口的所有商品課徵類似的稅，

crossing back and forth across the border,

接著就是一報還一報的小遊戲，

and you could be looking at more than a 40 percent increase in duties,

20% ──想像一下，20% 的關稅

or 80 billion dollars.

被加到從邊境進進出出的

Now, don't kid yourself,

每一樣商品、產品、產品元件上，

these costs are going to be passed along

可能會因此增加超過 40% 的關稅，

to you and to me.

即八百億美元。

Now, let's think about what impact that might have on some of the products,

不要自欺欺人了，

or the prices of the products, that we buy every day.

這些成本都會轉嫁到

So if a 30 percent increase in duties were actually passed along,

你我身上。

we would be looking at some pretty important increases in prices.

現在，再來想想我們 每天購買的那些產品、

A Lincoln MKZ would go from 37,000 dollars to 48,000.

或其價格，會受到什麼影響。

And the price of a Sharp 60-inch HDTV

如果實際上轉嫁 30% 的增加關稅 ，

would go from 898 dollars to 1,167 dollars.

我們將會看到價格被調升許多。

And the price of a 16-ounce jar of CVS skin moisturizer

林肯汽車 MKZ 車款的價格 會從 $37,000 提升到 $48,000。

would go from 13 dollars to 17 dollars.

夏普的高畫質電視價格

Now, remember, this is only looking at one strand of the production chain

會從 $898 提升到 $1,167。

between the US and Mexico,

而 16 盎司的 CVS 藥局 罐裝護膚液價格

so multiply this out across all of the strands.

會從 $13 提升到 $17。

The impact could be considerable.

別忘了，這只是美國和墨西哥 之間的一條生產鏈而已，

Now, just think about this:

如果把其它部份都乘進來，

even if we were able to dismantle this network

影響會非常巨大。

and produce products in just one country,

想想這一點：

which by the way is easier said than done,

即使我們有辦法拆解這個網路，

we would still only be saving or protecting

只在一個國家中生產產品，

one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs.

我只能說，說的比做的容易，

That's right, because remember,

我們還是只能拯救或是保護

most of those jobs, 87 percent,

十個被縮減的製造業工作中的一個。

were lost due to improvements in our own productivity.

沒錯，別忘了，

And unfortunately, those jobs, they're gone for good.

因為大部份這些工作，有 87%，

So the real question is,

是因為我們自己生產力的 改善而消失掉的。

does it make sense for us to drive up prices

不幸的是，那些工作 永遠不會再回來了。

to the point where many of us can't afford the basic goods we use every day

所以，真正的問題是，

for the purpose of saving a job

這麼做合理嗎？ 把日用品價格提高到

that might be eliminated in a couple of years anyway?

許多人都無法負擔的程度，

The reality is that shared production

只是為了拯救一些工作，

allows us to manufacture higher quality products

且這些工作在幾年後 終究還是會消失？

at lower costs.

現實是，共享生產

It's that simple.

讓我們能用較低的成本來製造出

It allows us to get more

更高品質的產品。

out of the limited resources and expertise we have

就這麼簡單。

and at the same time benefit from lower prices.

它讓我們能從有限的資源和專長中，

It's really important to remember

盡可能得到更多，

that for shared production to be effective,

同時我們還享有價格較低的好處。

it relies on efficient cross-border movement of raw materials,

很重要的是要記住，

components and finished products.

若要讓共享生產能有效地發揮作用，

So remember this:

就需要讓原料、元件、成品都能

the next time you're hearing somebody try to sell you on the idea

有效率地通過邊境。

that protectionism is a good deal,

所以，切記這一點：

it's just not.

下次，你聽到有人要說服你說

Thank you.

保護主義是個很好的辦法時，

(Applause)

你要知道並非如此。