(Toy car)

（骨牌倒下）

(Ball rolls)

（玩具車）

(Music: "This Too Shall Pass")

（球滾動）

(Singing)

（音樂：「這終究也會過去」）

You know you can't keep letting it get you down,

（唱歌）

and you can't keep dragging that dead weight around.

你知道你不能一直 允許它讓你處在低潮，

If there ain't all that much to lug around

你不能到哪都一直拖著那重負。

better run like hell when you hit the ground

如果沒有什麼需要隨身拖著，

When the morning comes

你最好一落地就開始拼命跑。

When the morning comes

當早晨到來，

You can't stop these kids from dancing,

當早晨到來，

but why would you want to,

你無法阻止這些孩子跳舞，

especially when you're already getting yours?

但你為什麼想這樣做，

(Xylophone)

特別是當你已經得到你的了？

(Singing) 'Cause if your mind don't move and your knees don't bend,

（木琴）

well don't go blaming the kids again.

（唱歌）因為如果你不動腦筋、 如果你不彎膝蓋，

(Xylophone)

那就不要再去怪罪那些孩子。

(Singing) When the morning comes

（木琴）

When the morning comes

（唱歌）當早晨到來，

When the morning comes

當早晨到來，

When the morning comes

當早晨到來，

When the morning comes

當早晨到來，

When the morning comes

當早晨到來，

(Xylophone)

當早晨到來，

(Singing) Let it go,

（木琴）

this too shall pass

（唱歌）放手讓它走，

Let it go,

這終將也會過去。

this too shall pass

放手讓它走，

You know you can't keep letting it get you down,

這終將也會過去。

you can't keep letting it get you down --

你知道你不能一直 允許它讓你處在低潮，

this too shall pass

你不能一直允許它讓你處在低潮，

If there ain't all that much to lug around,

這終將也會過去。

you can't keep letting it get you down --

如果沒有什麼需要隨身拖著，

this too shall pass

你不能一直允許它讓你處在低潮，

When the morning comes --

這終將也會過去。

you can't keep letting it get you down,

當早晨到來，

no you can't keep letting it

你不能一直允許它讓你處在低潮，

When the morning comes --

不，你不能一直允許它。

you can't keep letting it get you down,

當早晨到來，

no you can't keep letting it

你不能一直允許它讓你處在低潮，

When the morning comes --

不，你不能一直允許它。

you can't keep letting it get you down,

當早晨到來，

no you can't keep letting it

你不能一直允許它讓你處在低潮，

When the morning comes --

不，你不能一直允許它。

you can't keep letting it get you down,

當早晨到來，

no you can't keep letting it

你不能一直允許它讓你處在低潮，

When the morning comes

不，你不能一直允許它。

(Paint guns fire)

當早晨到來，

(Applause)

（油漆槍開槍）

Damian Kulash: Thank you, thanks very much.

（掌聲）

We are OK Go,

戴米恩庫拉許：謝謝，非常謝謝。

and we've been together as a band since 1998.

我們是「OK Go」，

But in the last decade,

從 1998 年開始， 我們就組成了這個樂團。

we've become known as much for the elaborate music videos,

但在過去十年，

like the one we just saw,

我們精心製作的 MV，

as for the songs they accompany.

就像我們剛剛看到的那段，

So we will play along with another one of those in a few minutes,

開始和它們伴隨的歌曲一樣知名。

but in the meantime,

幾分鐘後我們會再表演 另一段這類的 MV，

we want to address this question that we get asked all the time

但在此同時

but we've really never come up with an adequate answer for it,

有個我們常被問到的問題， 但我們一直沒有

and that is, how do we think of those ideas?

想出適當的答案， 現在我們想要說明一下，

The videos are not all Rube Goldberg machines, by the way.

那個問題就是： 我們怎麼想出這些點子的？

Last year we did a dance in zero gravity,

順道一提，這些影片並非全是 魯布戈德堡機械（過度複雜的機械）。

and once we set up an obstacle course

去年，我們在無重力狀態下跳舞，

out of thousands of musical instruments in the desert,

有一次我們在沙漠中用

and then played them by stunt driving a car through them.

上千個樂器建立了一條障礙賽跑道，

(Laughter)

然後以開特技車穿越它們 的方式來演奏它們。

For one of the videos,

（笑聲）

we choreographed hundreds of people with umbrellas

為了其中一支影片，

in an abandoned parking lot outside Tokyo,

我們編排讓數百人帶著雨傘，

and then filmed them from a drone a half a mile in the air.

在東京外的一個廢棄停車場，

So it's all of these ideas that people are curious about,

用一台空中無人機 從半哩外拍攝他們。

and the reason we've had so much trouble describing how we think of these ideas

人們對這些點子感到好奇，

is that it doesn't really feel like we think of them at all.

我們之所以很難描述 我們如何想出這些點子，

It feels like we find them.

是因為這些點子感覺完全 不像是我們想出來的。

And by way of explanation --

感覺像是我們找到它們的。

well, I have a compulsive habit.

為了解釋起見…

I play parallax and perspective games with my eyes pretty much all the time,

我有一種強迫性的習慣，

and it's something I've been doing since I was a teenager.

我幾乎時時刻刻用我的眼睛 在玩視差和透視圖的遊戲，

And I think the big contributing factor may have been

我從青少年時期開始 就一直這麼做了。

that this is how I decorated my high school bedroom.

我想，一個重要的原因可能是

(Laughter)

我是這樣裝飾我高中臥室的。

And being a teenager,

（笑聲）

what I did in there, of course, was just talk on the phone

身為青少年，

for staggering amounts of time.

我在臥室中所做的事只有講電話，

So I was in this visual maelstrom

花非常長的時間講電話。

just pretty much usually sitting in one place,

所以我身處這個視覺大混亂當中，

and I guess just the overload in general --

通常就是一直坐在一個地方，

my brain kind of tried to make sense of it, and I would --

我猜想八成是超載了…

If I could move my head off to one side a little bit,

我的頭腦試著理出道理來，而我會…

the edge of the desk would line up just perfectly

如果我把我的頭向一邊稍微移動一點，

with that poster on the opposite wall;

書桌的邊緣就會完美對齊

or if I put my thumb out,

對面牆壁上的海報；

I could close first my left eye and then my right,

或是把我的大拇指伸出來，

and my thumb would bounce back and forth

我會先閉上我的左眼，接著右眼，

between Jimi Hendrix's left eye and his right.

我的大拇指就會看起來在

(Laughter)

吉米亨德里克斯的 左右眼之間彈來彈去，

It was not a conscious thing, of course,

（笑聲）

this is just kind of the equivalent of doodling while you're talking,

當然，這不是有意識的。

and it's still something I do all the time.

有點像是你邊說話邊塗鴉，

This is my wife, Kristin --

我仍然常常在這樣做。

(Applause)

這是我太太，克莉絲汀。

Yeah!

（掌聲）

Woo!

是啊！

And it's not uncommon that we are out at dinner,

（歡呼聲）

and in the middle of a great conversation she'll just stop mid-sentence,

常常，我們出去吃飯時，

and when she stops is when I realize that I'm the one who's acting weird

在很棒的對話中，她會突然 句子說到一半就停下來，

because I'm like bobbing and weaving.

當她停下來時，我才了解到 我才是行為怪異的那個人，

And what I'm trying to do is get that ficus back there

因為我正在來回擺動和迂迴搖晃。

to stick out of her head like a ponytail.

我在試著把後面這榕屬植物

(Laughter)

從她的頭伸出來，像一條馬尾一樣。

The point of telling you all this is that --

（笑聲）

for me this is what it feels like to have an idea.

告訴你們這些的目的是因為，

It's like they're made of these disparate parts,

對我而言，有個點子的感覺 就像是這樣的。

these disparate chunks sort of floating out there.

就像它們是用這些迥 然不同的部件所組成，

And if you're receptive and you're observant,

這些迥然不同的部份 就好像漂浮在那兒。

and crucially, if you're in exactly the right place,

如果你樂於接受、觀察力敏銳，

you can get them to just line up.

更重要的，如果 你在完全正確的位置，

So if you get used to --

你就能把它們恰好排成列。

if it's your job to think of ideas this way,

所以如果你習慣…

they'll start beckoning to you

如果你的工作就是 用這方式來想點子，

the way that Jimi's eyes beckoned from that poster,

它們會開始向你招手示意，

or the ficus beckons from behind Kristin's head.

就像吉米的眼睛從那海報上示意一樣，

Writing music feels like that process just over and over again,

或是榕屬植物從克莉絲汀 的頭後面示意一樣。

like you've got a bunch of sounds or a groove or a chord progression

寫音樂就像那個過程，只是不斷重覆，

and you're just looking for that thing on the other side,

就像你有一堆聲音、 一個合奏或和弦在進行。

that little chunk over there, that puzzle piece that clicks right in.

你只是在尋找另一端的那東西，

And when it does click,

那兒的那一小的部份、 剛好能對上的一片拼圖。

it doesn't feel like you thought up that puzzle piece,

當真的對上時，

it feels like you found it --

感覺就不像是你想出了那片拼圖，

like it was a set of relationships that you unlocked.

感覺像是你找到它，

But with the videos in particular,

就像它是一組關係，而你將它解鎖了。

we're usually looking for this specific feeling

但特別是在影片方面，

which is wonder.

我們通常在找這種特定的感覺，

And there's always a component of surprise to wonder,

就是奇觀。

so we're not just looking for good ideas,

總會有個元素，就是對奇觀的驚訝，

we're looking for good ideas that surprise us in some way.

所以我們不只是在找好點子，

And this causes something of a problem,

我們在找能夠以某種方式 讓我們驚訝的點子。

because ...

這會造成一個問題，

the process that we all use to make stuff,

因為…

it actually has a very strong bias against surprising ideas.

我們用來製作東西的流程，

The process I'm talking about is the one you all know --

它其實對於驚訝的點子 有非常強烈的偏見。

we all do it all the time.

我在說的流程是你們都知道的流程…

You think of an idea.

我們總是在用它。

You just sit and think of your brilliant idea

你想出一個點子。

and then you come up with a plan

你只是坐著，想著你的出色點子，

for how you're going to make that idea happen.

接著你提出一個計畫，

And then with that plan in mind,

規劃你要如何讓那個點子成真。

you go back and double-check your original idea

當腦中有了這個計畫，

and maybe revise it,

你回頭再次確認你的原始點子，

and then bouncing back and forth between the idea and the plan,

也許將它修正一下，

the plan and the idea,

接著在點子和計畫之間、 計畫和點子之間，

eventually you come up with a truly great plan.

不斷來來回回 ，

And then once you have that, and only then,

最終你會提出一個真的很棒的計畫。

do you go out and you execute.

當你有了這個計畫的時候， 也只有在這個時候，

And this is like --

你會踏出去開始執行。

this is sort of a flawless system

這就像是…

in terms of maximizing your resources,

這是一種無瑕的系統，

because this -- super cheap.

可以將你的資源利用最佳化，

Thinking usually costs very little,

因為這樣做…超便宜。

but this is really expensive most of the time,

思考的成本很低，

so by the time you get there,

但通常這部份就很昂貴，

you want to make sure you're super prepared

所以當你到這部份的時候，

and you can squeeze every last drop out of what you've got.

你會想要確保你已經超級有準備了，

But there are problems with this,

你可以把你有的一切都榨乾。

and math will help us reveal the biggest one.

但這麼做會有問題，

Go back to that video that we just showed you.

數學會協助我們揭露出最大的問題。

That Rube Goldberg machine,

回到我們剛剛呈現給各位看的影片，

it had about 130 interactions in it.

那個魯布戈德堡機械，

That was 130 things

包含了大約 130 種互動在其中。

that we had to have go according to our plan.

也就是說，我們得要讓

So let's assume that we want to make a new video now,

130 件事都依我們規劃的來進行。

similarly complex -- 130 moving parts.

假設我們現在想要做一支新的影片，

If we're really good planners in that system,

有相似的複雜度－ 130 個會動的部件。

it seems like maybe we could be good enough

如果對於那種系統 我們算是很優秀的規劃者，

to get every part of that system to be 90 percent reliable.

也許我們可以厲害到

90 percent sounds good, right?

讓系統中的每部份 都有 90% 的可靠度，

Well, it's not.

90% 聽起來很好，對吧？

It's terrible actually. The numbers say so.

嗯，並不是如此。

The chance of getting all 130 things to not fail at the same time

其實這樣糟透了， 數字是這麼告訴我們的。

is .9 for 90 percent to the 130th power.

讓 130 樣東西同時都 成功運作的機會是

So calculate that out and you get ...

0.9（90%）的 130 次方。

(Ding)

算出來的結果是…

.000001,

（叮）

which is one ten-thousandth of one percent,

0.000001，

so your chance for success is literally one in a million.

也就是百分之一萬分之一，

(Whistle)

所以你成功的機會是 一百萬次才有一次。

(Laughter)

（哨音）

I mean that's not a gamble I want to take,

（笑聲）

so let's ratchet up that reliability to 99 percent.

我的意思是，那並不是我想下的賭注。

.99 to the 130th power is ...

所以我們來把可靠度提高到 99%，

(Ding)

0.99 的 130 次方是…

.27 -- 27 percent.

（叮）

Significantly less daunting --

0.27，27%。

like this might even be usable.

明顯比較不會讓人氣餒…

But really think about that.

好像這系統甚至是可行的了。

How many parts of your lives are 99 percent reliable?

但真正去思考一下。

And could you really get 130 of them all in one place at once?

你的人生中有多少部份 會有 99% 的可靠度？

And if you really could,

且你有辦法讓 130 個部份 全部同時都順利運作嗎？

doesn't it seem like you deserve to succeed?

若你真的能，

Like that is --

成功不是看來就是你應得的嗎？

that thing is going to work, right?

就像，那是…

But no, it actually fails three times more often than it succeeds.

那東西將會成功，對吧？

So the upshot of all this

但，不是的，它的失敗機率 是成功機率的三倍。

is that if your project is pretty complex --

所以這一切的結論是，

like, you know, every ambitious project is --

如果你的專案計畫十分複雜，

if you've got a lot of moving parts,

就像每個有野心的專案計畫一樣，

you're basically constrained to just reshuffling ideas

如果你有很多會動的部份，

that have already demonstrably proven that they're 100 percent reliable.

你基本上會被限制在 只能重組那些

So now go back to me sitting with my thumb in the air

已經被明確證明 100% 可靠的點子。

trying to line up something surprising.

現在回到先前談的， 我坐著並把大拇指伸出來，

If the only things I'm allowed to consider in the first place

試著用對齊的方式找出驚喜，

are ideas that have already been done over and over and over again,

如果一開始我被允許 能考量的東西

I am screwed.

都是已經被一再做過的東西，

However, there are ways around this,

那我就沒戲唱了。

because we all know that there are tons of untried ideas still out there,

然而，這是有救的，

and plenty of them will turn out to be every bit as reliable as we need,

因為我們都知道，還有一大堆 沒被試過的點子存在，

it's just that we don't yet know they are reliable

當中有許多點子的可靠度 非常符合我們的需求，

when we are at this planning phase.

只是在規劃階段時我們還不知道

So what we do is we try to identify some place

它們是可靠的而已。

where there might just be a ton of those untried ideas.

所以我們的做法是，找出一些地方，

We try to find a sandbox

找出可能有一堆 尚未嘗試的點子的地方。

and then we gamble a whole bunch of our resources

我們試著找來一個沙盒，

on getting in that sandbox and playing.

接著我們賭上我們的許多資源，

(Laughter)

讓我們進到那個沙盒中並開始玩。

Because we have to trust that it's the process in the sandbox

（笑聲）

that will reveal to us which ideas are not only surprising,

因為我們得要相信， 在沙盒中玩的過程

but surprisingly reliable.

會向我們揭示有哪些點子 不但很出乎意料，

So some of the sandboxes that we've started videos with.

且出乎意料地可靠。

Let's play with optical illusions.

來看看我們用來 創造出影片的一些沙盒。

Let's try to dance on moving surfaces.

我們來玩玩光學錯覺。

Let's try to make toast with a laser cutter.

我們來試著在移動的表面上跳舞。

Or let's do something in one of those zero-gravity airplanes.

我們來試著用雷射切割器做土司。

But then instead of actually trying to sit there

或，我們到無重力的 飛機上去做點什麼。

and think out what that something is,

我們並不是真的試著坐在那裡

we spent a full third of our budget getting in an actual Vomit Comet

去想出要做什麼。

and bouncing off the walls for a week.

我們花了整整 1/3 的預算進到 嘔吐慧星（NASA的零重力訓練機），

So this may seem to you like testing,

花一星期在裡面的牆壁彈來彈去。