(Laughter)

我一直在「未來」著。 這是我發明的詞彙──

about three seconds ago.

（笑聲）

I've been futuring for about 20 years,

大約三秒前想到的。

and when I first started, I would sit down with people,

我一直在「未來」著 20 年後的事；

and say, "Hey, let's talk 10, 20 years out."

我開始這樣做時， 我會坐在別人身旁，

And they'd say, "Great."

說：「嗨，我們不如談談 10 年、 20 年後的事。」

And I've been seeing that time horizon

他們都說：「好啊。」

get shorter and shorter

此後我就一直見到時間範圍 變得愈來愈短，愈來愈短，

and shorter,

甚至在兩個月前我跟 一名執行長見面時也見到。

so much so that I met with a CEO two months ago

我們開始初次對談後，

and I said -- we started our initial conversation.

他隨後說：「我喜歡你做的事情。 我想談談未來六個月的情況。」

He goes, "I love what you do. I want to talk about the next six months."

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

我們面對很多問題。

We have a lot of problems that we are facing.

這些都是文明規模的問題。

These are civilizational-scale problems.

但問題在於，

The issue though is,

我們無法利用目前使用的心智模式 去嘗試解決這些問題。

we can't solve them

沒錯，很多出色的技術性工作 在進行中，

using the mental models that we use right now

但問題在於如果我們 真的要使事情明顯改變，

to try and solve these problems.

我們就需要採用 先驗方式去解決問題。

Yes, a lot of great technical work is being done,

「短期主義」。

but there is a problem that we need to solve for a priori, before,

對吧﹖沒有任何遊行， 沒有任何示威。

if we want to really move the needle on those big problems.

沒有反對短期主義的請願讓你參加。

"Short-termism."

我曾嘗試發起一場這樣的請願， 但沒有人參加。

Right? There's no marches. There's no bracelets.

實在奇怪。

There's no petitions that you can sign to be against short-termism.

（笑聲）

I tried to put one up, and no one signed.

但它使我們避免做得太多。

It was weird.

短期主義因為種種原因

(Laughter)

已經滲入現實中的每個角落。

But it prevents us from doing so much.

我只想各位花一秒鐘，

Short-termism, for many reasons,

想想自己正在思考、處理甚麼問題。

has pervaded every nook and cranny of our reality.

它可以是個人的， 也可以是工作上的，

I just want you to take a second

也可以是明顯改變世界的事情，

and just think about an issue that you're thinking, working on.

並想想自己在思考解決辦法時 通常會想到多遠。

It could be personal, it could be at work

執行長因為短期主義

or it could be move-the-needle world stuff,

沒有購買非常昂貴的安全裝置。

and think about how far out you tend to think

購買了就會減損淨利潤。

about the solution set for that.

所以我們有「深水地平線」 漏油事故。

Because short-termism prevents the CEO

教師因為短期主義

from buying really expensive safety equipment.

沒有用心的跟他們的學生 一對一相處。

It'll hurt the bottom line.

所以在當今的美國，

So we get the Deepwater Horizon.

每 26 秒就有一名高中學生輟學。

Short-termism prevents teachers

國會因為短期主義沒有……

from spending quality one-on-one time with their students.

如果在座有來自國會的人，很抱歉。

So right now in America,

（笑聲）

a high school student drops out every 26 seconds.

其實不是很抱歉。

Short-termism prevents Congress --

（笑聲）

sorry if there's anyone in here from Congress --

沒有撥款到真正的基礎建設上，

(Laughter)

所以我們見到數年前 在密西西比河上，

or not really that sorry --

I-35W 大橋倒塌，造成 13 人死亡。

(Laughter)

但情況並非一直如此。 我們開鑿了巴拿馬運河。

from putting money into a real infrastructure bill.

我們已經大致上消滅 全球的小兒麻痺症。

So what we get is the I-35W bridge collapse

我們興建了橫貫大陸鐵路、 落實了馬歇爾計劃。

over the Mississippi a few years ago,

不只是關乎大型實體基建的問題。

13 killed.

女性投票權。

It wasn't always like this. We did the Panama Canal.

但在我們的短期主義時代，

We pretty much have eradicated global polio.

每樣事情都似乎在刻下發生，

We did the transcontinental railroad, the Marshall Plan.

我們只可以想到 下一條推文或動態時報貼文，

And it's not just big, physical infrastructure problems and issues.

我們變得過度保守。

Women's suffrage, the right to vote.

我們做了些甚麼﹖

But in our short-termist time,

我們收容從戰亂國家逃亡來的人，

where everything seems to happen right now

然後跟蹤他們。

and we can only think out past the next tweet or timeline post,

我們收容低度吸毒者， 然後終身囚禁他們。

we get hyper-reactionary.

我們像製作快餐般建造大量樓房，

So what do we do?

卻沒有考慮人們怎樣 在買房和工作之間取捨。

We take people who are fleeing their war-torn country,

都是為了賺快錢。

and we go after them.

事實上，這些問題 很多都有技術性的解決辦法，

We take low-level drug offenders, and we put them away for life.

數之不盡。

And then we build McMansions without even thinking

我稱之為技術性解決沙包策略。

about how people are going to get between them and their job.

你知道風暴正在來臨，

It's a quick buck.

沒有人在崩堤後投放任何資金，

Now, the reality is, for a lot of these problems,

你就在家的周圍擺放沙包。

there are some technical fixes,

信不信由你，這是奏效的。

a lot of them.

風暴離開了，水位下降，

I call these technical fixes sandbag strategies.

你就移走沙包，

So you know there's a storm coming,

每次風暴過後都是這樣做。

the levee is broken, no one's put any money into it,

陰險之處在於：

you surround your home with sandbags.

沙包策略

And guess what? It works.

使你獲得連任。

Storm goes away, the water level goes down,

沙包策略

you get rid of the sandbags,

有助你報告季度業績。

and you do this storm after storm after storm.

如果我們要往

And here's the insidious thing.

跟現在情況不同的未來發展，

A sandbag strategy

因為我不認為我們在 2016 年

can get you reelected.

已經到達文明的巔峰。

A sandbag strategy

（笑聲）

can help you make your quarterly numbers.

我們還有更多事情要做。

Now, if we want to move forward

但我的論點是：除非我們轉變

into a different future than the one we have right now,

思考短期內發生的事情時 所採用的心智模式和心智地圖，

because I don't think we've hit --

問題是解決不了的。

2016 is not peak civilization.

所以我發展出一套 我稱為「長途」的東西，

(Laughter)

它是一種實務。

There's some more we can do.

「長途」不會是 做過一件事情一次後就不再做。

But my argument is that unless we shift our mental models and our mental maps

我肯定在座任何人 都曾經在辦公室以外場所開會，

on how we think about the short,

用上很多告示貼和白板，

it's not going to happen.

而各位都這樣做──

So what I've developed is something called "longpath,"

無意得罪有這樣做的顧問師──

and it's a practice.

各位制訂長期計劃，

And longpath isn't a kind of one-and-done exercise.

在兩周後所有人都把它忘記。

I'm sure everyone here at some point has done an off-site

對吧？或者一周後就忘記， 在幸運的情況下三個月後才忘記。

with a lot of Post-It notes and whiteboards,

它稱為實務， 因為它未必是你做的事情。

and you do --

它是一個檢討作出各項重大決定時 不同的思考方法的過程。

no offense to the consultants in here who do that --

我希望逐一討論這三種思考方法。

and you do a long-term plan,

第一種：跨世代思考。

and then two weeks later, everyone forgets about it.

我喜歡哲學家：

Right? Or a week later. If you're lucky, three months.

柏拉圖、蘇格拉底、 哈伯馬斯、海德格。

It's a practice because it's not necessarily a thing that you do.

他們陪著我長大。

It's a process where you have to revisit different ways of thinking

他們都做過同一件事，

for every major decision that you're working on.

而這件事在我尚未開始探討之前

So I want to go through those three ways of thinking.

不像是非常重要。

So the first: transgenerational thinking.

他們所有人在衡量整個現實世界裡 何謂道德和美善時，

I love the philosophers:

都是以整個生命為單位，

Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger.

由出生到死亡。

I was raised on them.

但關於這些問題的問題在於：

But they all did one thing

這些問題被加諸我們身上，

that didn't actually seem like a big deal

因為我們只能把在世上行善 理解為在出生和死亡之間進行。

until I really started kind of looking into this.

我們都是被設定這樣做的。

And they all took,

你走到任何書店的自救書籍部門時，

as a unit of measure for their entire reality

所有都是關於你自己。

of what it meant to be virtuous and good,

這是好事，

the single lifespan,

除非你要處理部分這些重大問題。

from birth to death.

從跨世代思考出發──

But here's a problem with these issues:

其實就是跨世代道德──

they stack up on top of us,

你就可以擴闊思考這些問題的方法，

because the only way we know how to do something good in the world

而這是你在協助解決問題上 所擔當的角色。

is if we do it between our birth and our death.

這並非一些必須在 安理會大會上進行的事。

That's what we're programmed to do.

這是一些你可以個人方式進行的事。

If you go to the self-help section in any bookstore,

每隔一段時間， 我有幸跟妻子出外晚膳，

it's all about you.

而我們有三名七歲以下的孩子，

Which is great,

可想而知那頓飯吃得非常寧靜。

unless you're dealing with some of these major issues.

（笑聲）

And so with transgenerational thinking,

我們坐下，我真的 只想吃東西和輕鬆一下，

which is really kind of transgenerational ethics,

而我的孩子對於我們做的事情 有完全不同的看法。

you're able to expand how you think about these problems,

我的第一個想法

what is your role in helping to solve them.

就是沙包策略，對吧？

Now, this isn't something that just has to be done at the Security Council chamber.

那就是從口袋中拿出 iPhone，

It's something that you can do in a very kind of personal way.

給他們《冰雪奇緣》

So every once in a while, if I'm lucky, my wife and I like to go out to dinner,

或其他暢銷遊戲。

and we have three children under the age of seven.

然後我停止這個想法，

So you can imagine it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.

我要採用這個跨世代思考方法。

(Laughter)

我不在餐館做這樣的事， 因為這會很怪誕，

So we sit down and literally all I want to do is just eat and chill,

但我卻要做──

and my kids have a completely and totally different idea

我做過一次，所以明白這很怪誕。

of what we're going to be doing.

（笑聲）

And so my first idea

你要認為自己一定做得到。

is my sandbag strategy, right?

但這教導他們什麼？

It's to go into my pocket and take out the iPhone

我帶幾張紙或跟他們談話建立關係，

and give them "Frozen"

這些行為代表什麼？

or some other bestselling game thing.

這並非易事， 而我以非常個人的方式去做。

And then I stop

實際上這比任何我在世上 處理過的大問題更加令人不安──

and I have to kind of put on this transgenerational thinking cap.

在晚膳時逗自己的孩子開心。

I don't do this in the restaurant, because it would be bizarre,

但這樣做是要使我 跟他們在當下聯繫起來，

but I have to --

此外──

I did it once, and that's how I learned it was bizarre.

這是跨世代思考道德的關鍵所在──

(Laughter)

為他們準備如何跟他們的孩子的 孩子的孩子互動。

And you have to kind of think, "OK, I can do this."

第二：未來思考。

But what is this teaching them?

當我們想到未來時，

So what does it mean if I actually bring some paper

就是指未來 10 至 15 年。

or engage with them in conversation?

讓我知道各位對未來的想像。

It's hard. It's not easy, and I'm making this very personal.

各位毋須告訴我， 自己思考一下就好了。

It's actually more traumatic

你大概會見到的 是一塊主導文化透視鏡，

than some of the big issues that I work on in the world --

主導我們現在怎樣思考未來：

entertaining my kids at dinner.

科技。

But what it does is it connects them here in the present with me,

當我們思考這些問題時，

but it also --

我們從來都戴著科技透視鏡，

and this is the crux of transgenerational thinking ethics --

擁抱科技中心或科技烏托邦主義。 這並非錯事，

it sets them up to how they're going to interact with their kids

但如果要在這些重大問題上有進展， 這就是我們必須深入思考的事情，

and their kids and their kids.

因為並非所有問題都是這樣，對吧？

Second, futures thinking.

遠古時代的人對未來是甚麼 有他們的思考方式。

When we think about the future,

對於未來可以變成怎樣， 教會絕對有他們的看法，

10, 15 years out,

你其實可以付錢 為進入未來那個世界鋪路，對吧？

give me a vision of what the future is.

人類幸運之處

You don't have to give it to me, but think in your head.

在於他們有科技革命。

And what you're probably going to see

此後我們有了科技，

is the dominant cultural lens

但其後發生的──

that dominates our thinking about the future right now:

順帶一提，這並不是批判。

technology.

我喜愛科技。

So when we think about the problems,

我的房子內所有東西都跟我回嘴，

we always put it through a technological lens,

我的孩子以至我的揚聲器都是。

a tech-centric, a techno-utopia, and there's nothing wrong with that,

（笑聲）

but it's something that we have to really think deeply about

但我們卻把未來主導權 從羅馬的大祭司褫奪過來，

if we're going to move on these major issues,

交給矽谷的大祭司。

because it wasn't always like this. Right?

所以當我們思考怎樣應對氣候、

The ancients had their way of thinking

貧窮或流浪漢問題時，

about what the future was.

我們的第一反應 就是透過科技去思考。

The Church definitely had their idea of what the future could be,

我不是鼓吹大家 去聽這位老兄的說話。

and you could actually pay your way into that future. Right?

我喜歡約爾．歐斯汀的 電視佈道，別誤會，

And luckily for humanity,

但我不是要各位聽他的說話。

we got the scientific revolution.

我要說的是，我們必須重新思考 只用一種方法探討未來、

From there, we got the technology,

只透過主導透視鏡 探討未來的基本假設。

but what has happened --

因為我們的問題實在龐大和廣闊，

And by the way, this is not a critique.

我們需要開放自己。

I love technology.

所以我在權限內 盡量不談「一個」未來。

Everything in my house talks back to me,

我談的是多個未來。

from my children to my speakers to everything.

這樣重啟對話。

(Laughter)

當你坐著思考

But we've abdicated the future from the high priests in Rome

怎樣在重大問題上前進──

to the high priests of Silicon Valley.

這問題可以是家庭，

So when we think, well, how are we going to deal with climate

可以是工作，

or with poverty or homelessness,

也可以再次是全球性問題──

our first reaction is to think about it through a technology lens.

別打斷自己思考 科技以外的解決辦法，

And look, I'm not advocating that we go to this guy.

因為我們目前關心科技進化 多於道德進化。

I love Joel, don't get me wrong,

除非我們有解決科技進化的辦法，

but I'm not saying we go to Joel.

否則我們不能擺脫短期主義、

What I'm saying is we have to rethink

達到理想的境界。

our base assumption about only looking at the future in one way,

最後：終極 (Telos) 思考。 這來自希臘語詞根。

only looking at it through the dominant lens.

終極目標和終極用途。

Because our problems are so big and so vast

這其實都是問一個問題：

that we need to open ourselves up.

目的何在？

So that's why I do everything in my power not to talk about the future.

你上一次何時自問目的何在？

I talk about futures.

當你這樣自問，你走得有多遠？

It opens the conversation again.

因為長遠已不再夠長。

So when you're sitting and thinking

三或五年也不夠長。

about how do we move forward on this major issue --

30、40、50、100 年才夠。

it could be at home,

在荷馬的史詩《奧德賽》，

it could be at work,

奧德修斯有了「目的何在」的答案。

it could be again on the global stage --

那就是伊薩卡。

don't cut yourself off from thinking about something beyond technology as a fix

他懷著雄心壯志，就是想要

because we're more concerned about technological evolution right now

回到妻子佩涅羅珀的身邊。

than we are about moral evolution.

我可以告訴各位，因為我的工作，

And unless we fix for that,

也因為各位憑直覺也知道的事實， 我們已失去了我們的伊薩卡。

we're not going to be able to get out of short-termism

我們已失去了我們的「目的何在」， 所以要留在這個倉鼠輪上。

and get to where we want to be.

沒錯，我們正嘗試解決這些問題，

The final, telos thinking. This comes from the Greek root.

但解決了問題後是甚麼境況？

Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose.

除非你界定日後的境況是甚麼， 否則人們是不會行動的。

And it's really asking one question:

商界──不只關乎營商──

to what end?

當中那些一直突破短期主義的企業，

When was the last time you asked yourself: To what end?

毫無意外地都是家族企業。

And when you asked yourself that, how far out did you go?

它們都是跨世代， 懷著終極目標，思考未來。

Because long isn't long enough anymore.

這就是百達翡麗的廣告， 手錶有 175 年的歷史，

Three, five years doesn't cut it.

令人驚異的是，這些手錶確實象徵

It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years.

品牌帶出的長途式氣質，

In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey,"

因為畢竟你從來都不是 真正擁有百達翡麗，

Odysseus had the answer to his "what end."

而我當然不會擁有，

It was Ithaca.

（笑聲）

It was this bold vision of what he wanted --

除非有人想拋 25,000 元到台上。

to return to Penelope.

你只是替下一代看守它。

And I can tell you, because of the work that I'm doing,

我們要記住的重要一點就是：

but also you know it intuitively -- we have lost our Ithaca.