one billion people went to sleep without access to electricity.

有件事很容易被人們遺忘——

One billion people.

就是昨晚仍有10億人口 在就寢前沒有電力可以使用。

Two and a half billion people did not have access to clean cooking fuels

十億人口。

or clean heating fuels.

有 25 億人口沒有乾淨的烹飪燃料

Those are the problems in the developing world.

或乾淨的暖氣燃料可用。

And it's easy for us not to be empathetic

這些是開發中國家的問題。

with those people who seem so distanced from us.

而我們似乎也不太同情那些

But even in our own world, the developed world,

離我們這麼遙遠的人們。

we see the tension of stagnant economies

但即使是在我們的世界——發達的世界，

impacting the lives of people around us.

我們仍會看到因為經濟不景氣

We see it in whole pieces of the economy,

對我們周遭人生活所造成的影響。

where the people involved have lost hope about the future

我們可以看到他們受各種景氣的影響，

and despair about the present.

在這樣的背景下，人們對未來不抱希望，

We see that in the Brexit vote.

對目前現狀也相當失望。

We see that in the Sanders/Trump campaigns in my own country.

我們在英國脫歐看到了這種現象。

But even in countries as recently turning the corner

我們在自己國家的總統大選 也看到了這種現象。

towards being in the developed world,

但即使是最近正要從 發展中國家轉變成

in China,

發達國家的——

we see the difficulty that President Xi has

中國，

as he begins to un-employ so many people in his coal and mining industries

我們也看到習主席也相當為難，

who see no future for themselves.

他也開始在煤礦及 採礦產業解雇了很多

As we as a society figure out how to manage

看不到自己未來的礦工。

the problems of the developed world

即使我們的社會已經知道如何管理

and the problems of the developing world,

發達國家的問題

we have to look at how we move forward

以及發展中國家的問題，

and manage the environmental impact of those decisions.

我們仍得仔細想想要如何更進一步的

We've been working on this problem for 25 years, since Rio,

管理這些決定所帶給環境的影響。

the Kyoto Protocols.

自從里約的《京都議定書》後，

Our most recent move is the Paris treaty,

我們已經在這個議題上努力了25年。

and the resulting climate agreements

我們最近的活動是在 巴黎的全球氣候大會協議，

that are being ratified by nations around the world.

最後的協議書

I think we can be very hopeful

已經被世界各國所簽署認可。

that those agreements, which are bottom-up agreements,

我想，我們都很期待

where nations have said what they think they can do,

這些協議，這些由下而上

are genuine and forthcoming for the vast majority of the parties.

由各國政府所承諾的協議，

The unfortunate thing

能真正的實現並為所有人帶來利益。

is that now, as we look at the independent analyses

不幸的是，

of what those climate treaties are liable to yield,

當我們仔細觀察獨立分析報告裡面

the magnitude of the problem before us becomes clear.

這些氣候協定有哪些盲點時，

This is the United States Energy Information Agency's assessment

一大堆問題就會一一浮現眼前。

of what will happen if the countries implement the climate commitments

這是美國能源資訊 評估委員會的評估報告，

that they've made in Paris

報告中說明了在巴黎氣候大會上 那些發表承諾的國家，

between now and 2040.

如果從現在起到2040年， 都執行了他們所說的事

It shows basically CO2 emissions around the world

那會有甚麼事發生。

over the next 30 years.

這份報告基本上告訴了我們，

There are three things that you need to look at and appreciate.

未來30年全球的碳排狀況。

One, CO2 emissions are expected to continue to grow

有三件事，各位要特別注意：

for the next 30 years.

第一，未來三十年，

In order to control climate,

碳排預計仍會持續增長。

CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero

為了要控制氣候，

because it's the cumulative emissions that drive heating on the planet.

碳排幾乎必須要達到「零排放」，

This should tell you that we are losing the race to fossil fuels.

因為二氧化碳會積累， 它主導了地球的溫度。

The second thing you should notice

這說明了，我們的石化燃料競賽 根本是個錯誤。

is that the bulk of the growth comes from the developing countries,

第二，各位要明白：

from China, from India, from the rest of the world,

主要的增長來源是來自開發中國家，

which includes South Africa and Indonesia and Brazil,

像是，中國、印度，還有其它國家，

as most of these countries move their people

包括南非、印尼、巴西，

into the lower range of lifestyles

當大部分這些國家把他們的人民

that we literally take for granted in the developed world.

帶往了一個更低水準的生活的同時，

The final thing that you should notice

在發達國家的我們卻認為 這是理所當然的必經過程。

is that each year,

最後一件各位必須注意的是：

about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting added to the planet's atmosphere,

我們每一年，

and then diffusing into the ocean and into the land.

大約有100億噸的碳 會排入地球的大氣層中，

That's on top of the 550 gigatons that are in place today.

之後溶入到海洋及大地裡。

At the end of 30 years,

這些會附加到目前存在地球 5500億噸的碳存量上。

we will have put 850 gigatons of carbon into the air,

30年後，

and that probably goes a long way

我們的空氣中將有8500億噸的碳，

towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase in global mean surface temperatures,

所以要把地球表面的上升溫度

locking in ocean acidification

控制在2~4度C內，那可能比登天還難，

and locking in sea level rise.

還有控制海洋酸化、

Now, this is a projection made by men

控制海平面上升亦是百般困難。

by the actions of society,

這是人類造成的結果、

and it's ours to change, not to accept.

社會造成的結果、

But the magnitude of the problem is something we need to appreciate.

我們必須改變，不能接受。

Different nations make different energy choices.

但我們還有很多問題要釐清。

It's a function of their natural resources.

不同的國家有不同的能源選擇。

It's a function of their climate.

取決於他們的天然資源的功能，

It's a function of the development path that they've followed as a society.

一種氣候的功能。

It's a function of where on the surface of the planet they are.

這是他們社會通往 發展道路上的方式。

Are they where it's dark a lot of the time,

這條方程式，取決於他們位於 地球表面的哪一個位置。

or are they at the mid-latitudes?

他們是否長時間處於黑暗狀態

Many, many, many things go into the choices of countries,

或是他們位於中緯度？

and they each make a different choice.

有很多方式可以讓各國選擇，

The overwhelming thing that we need to appreciate

而每個國家都有不同的選擇。

is the choice that China has made.

有件擋不住的事，我們需要了解，

China has made the choice,

那就是中國所做出的選擇。

and will make the choice, to run on coal.

中國已經做出選擇，

The United States has an alternative.

他們將選擇繼續燒煤。

It can run on natural gas

美國自己有替代方案，

as a result of the inventions of fracking and shale gas,

可以選擇天然氣，

which we have here.

因為我們有水力壓裂技術

They provide an alternative.

及頁岩氣的探勘技術。

The OECD Europe has a choice.

它們提供了替代方案。

It has renewables that it can afford to deploy in Germany

歐洲的經濟合作發展組織 也做了選擇。

because it's rich enough to afford to do it.

德國選擇再生能源，

The French and the British show interest in nuclear power.

因為他們有錢可以支付做這件事。

Eastern Europe, still very heavily committed to natural gas and to coal,

法國及英國對核能發電很有興趣。

and with natural gas that comes from Russia,

東歐對天然氣及煤礦仍相當依賴，

with all of its entanglements.

提到天然氣，就會想到俄羅斯，

China has many fewer choices

它跟周遭國家一直糾纏不清。

and a much harder row to hoe.

中國的選擇比較少，

If you look at China, and you ask yourself

而且困難重重。

why has coal been important to it,

如果你仔細觀察中國，你也許會問，

you have to remember what China's done.

為什麼煤礦對中國這麼重要？

China brought people to power, not power to people.

你必須回想中國的發展軌跡。

It didn't do rural electrification.

中國帶給人民的是權力， 而不是電力。

It urbanized.

他們不發展農村電力。

It urbanized by taking low-cost labor and low-cost energy,

他們全力發展城市化。

creating export industries

低成本的勞力及低成本的能源， 促成了都市化的發展，

that could fund a tremendous amount of growth.

造成出口產業的

If we look at China's path,

大幅度成長。

all of us know that prosperity in China has dramatically increased.

如果各位觀察中國的發展軌跡，

In 1980, 80 percent of China's population

大家都知道，中國的繁榮 成長地相當快速。

lived below the extreme poverty level,

在1980年代，有將近80%的中國人

below the level of having $1.90 per person per day.

生活在極度貧窮線以下。

By the year 2000, only 20 percent of China's population

平均每人每天賺的 竟低於1.9美金的水準。

lived below the extreme poverty level --

但到了2000年，只剩下20%的中國人

a remarkable feat,

生活在極度貧窮線之下——

admittedly, with some costs in civil liberties

相當了不起的政績，

that would be tough to accept in the Western world.

誠然，這是犧牲了 一些人民的自由換來的，

But the impact of all that wealth

這在西方世界裡是不可能被接受的。

allowed people to get massively better nutrition.

但這樣的財富增長

It allowed water pipes to be placed.

讓人民大量獲得了更好的營養。

It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,

地下水管得以建設、

dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,

衛生下水道得以建設、

at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.

大量減少了腹瀉的疾病，

But in 1980, and even today,

而這些卻是用空氣汙染換來的。

the number one killer in China is indoor air pollution,

但在1980年代，甚至到目前為止，

because people do not have access to clean cooking and heating fuels.

中國的頭號殺手， 竟是室內的空氣汙染，

In fact, in 2040,

因為人民沒有乾淨的烹飪 及暖氣燃料可用。

it's still estimated that 200 million people in China

事實上，在2040年，

will not have access to clean cooking fuels.

預估仍有二億的中國人口

They have a remarkable path to follow.

沒有乾淨的烹飪燃料可用。

India also needs to meet the needs of its own people,

他們仍有相當艱辛的一段路要走。

and it's going to do that by burning coal.

印度也需要滿足人民的需求，

When we look at the EIA's projections of coal burning in India,

他們也準備用燃煤的方式來進行。

India will supply nearly four times as much of its energy from coal

當我們仔細觀察印度燃煤的 環境影響評估，就會發現

as it will from renewables.

印度未來對燃煤的需求

It's not because they don't know the alternatives;

是再生能源的四倍。

it's because rich countries can do what they choose,

並不是因為他們不知道 替代能源方案；

poor countries do what they must.

是因為富裕國家可以自由選擇，

So what can we do to stop coal's emissions in time?

而貧窮國家只能被迫選擇。

What can we do that changes this forecast that's in front of us?

所以，我們要如何及時的 停止燃煤的排放？

Because it's a forecast that we can change if we have the will to do it.

我們有沒有辦法可以改善 眼前的預測結果？

First of all, we have to think about the magnitude of the problem.

因為只要我們有意願改變， 我們一定辦的到。

Between now and 2040,

首先，我們必須從大方向來思考。

800 to 1,600 new coal plants are going to be built around the world.

從現在開始到2040年，

This week, between one and three one-gigawatt coal plants

全世界即將有800~1600座 燃煤發電廠被建造出來。

are being turned on around the world.

光這個禮拜，世界上就有1~3座

That's happening regardless of what we want,

十億瓦特的燃煤發電廠開始運轉。

because the people that rule their countries,

不管我們想不想， 這件事就是會發生，

assessing the interests of their citizens,

因為為了人民著想，

have decided it's in the interest of their citizens to do that.

當權者在權衡利益之後，

And that's going to happen unless they have a better alternative.

就已經決定要怎麼做了。

And every 100 of those plants will use up

除非有更好的替代方案， 不然事情擋都擋不住。

between one percent and three percent

而每100座燃煤發電廠

of the Earth's climate budget.

將會耗損1~3%的

So every day that you go home thinking that you should do something

地球氣候容忍量。

about global warming,

所以當你每天回家思考

at the end of that week, remember:

如何在全球暖化議題上有所貢獻時，

somebody fired up a coal plant that's going to run for 50 years

記得，在每周結束前：

and take away your ability to change it.

已經又有人將要開啟 壹座運行50年的發電站

What we've forgotten is something that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,

而這些人就是奪走你 想改變這一切能力的人。

a man of Indian ethnicity but an American venture capitalist.

我們可能已經忘記， 維諾德·柯斯拉曾說過的，

And he said, back in the early 2000s,

他是印度裔，但他是一位 美國籍的風險投資家，

that if you needed to get China and India off of fossil fuels,

他說，回想2000年初期，

you had to create a technology that passed the "Chindia test,"

如果你想要讓中國和 印度不使用石化燃料，

"Chindia" being the appending of the two words.

那你得創造出一種可以通過 「Chindia測試」的科技，

It had to be first of all viable,

Chindia是中國和印度的縮寫。

meaning that technically, they could implement it in their country,

這是他們的首要考量，

and that it would be accepted by the people in the country.

意思就是，這項技術， 可以運用在他們的國家，

Two, it had to be a technology that was scalable,

且可以被他們的人民接受。

that it could deliver the same benefits

第二，這項技術必須能被規模化，

on the same timetable as fossil fuels,

它必須與石化燃料有相同的好處，

so that they can enjoy the kind of life, again, that we take for granted.

能及時的傳送所需的能量，

And third, it had to be cost-effective

這樣他們才能享受那樣的生活， 我再說一遍，我們認為這是理所當然的。

without subsidy or without mandate.

第三，它必須夠便宜，

It had to stand on its own two feet;

不用接受補助或受第三方牽制。

it could not be maintained for that many people

必須自給自足；

if in fact, those countries had to go begging

它不能由其他人來維護，

or had some foreign country say, "I won't trade with you,"

如果這樣，他們國家就得求別人，

in order to get the technology shift to occur.

或者哪一天被其他國家說， 「我不跟你交易了」，

If you look at the Chindia test,

為了就是讓技術突破能發生。

we simply have not come up with alternatives that meet that test.

如果我們仔細觀察Chindia測試，

That's what the EIA forecast tells us.

我們根本找不到符合的可替代方案。

China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,

這是環境引評估報告中告訴我們的。

400 gigawatts of hydro,

中國正在建造8000億瓦的燃煤發電廠

about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,

4000億瓦的水力發電廠

and on an energy-equivalent basis, adjusting for intermittency,

2000億瓦的核能發電廠，

about 100 gigawatts of renewables.

在能量相等的基礎上，因應跳電的調整，

800 gigawatts of coal.

大約還需要1000億瓦的再生能源、

They're doing that, knowing the costs better than any other country,

8000億瓦的燃媒能源。

knowing the need better than any other country.

這樣做的原因是因為他們知道， 他們的成本比其它國家便宜，

But that's what they're aiming for in 2040

知道他們的需求比其它國家還要多。

unless we give them a better choice.

但這就是他們2040年的目標，

To give them a better choice,

除非我們能給他們一個更好的選擇。

it's going to have to meet the Chindia test.

要給他們更好的選擇，

If you look at all the alternatives that are out there,

還必須符合Chindia測試。

there are really two that come near to meeting it.

如果仔細看一下現有的替代方案，

First is this area of new nuclear that I'll talk about in just a second.

真的只有2個可以符合。

It's a new generation of nuclear plants that are on the drawing boards

第一個是新核能技術領域， 我稍微談一談。

around the world,

它是新一代的核能廠，

and the people who are developing these say

設計規劃目前正在全世界進行，

we can get them in position to demo by 2025

而建造這些技術的人說，

and to scale by 2030, if you will just let us.

我們可以在2025年建造展示機，

The second alternative that could be there in time

如果你們願意讓我們做的話， 2030年前可以大規模建置。

is utility-scale solar backed up with natural gas,

第二個替代方案可以馬上使用，

which we can use today,

就是現今已經有的

versus the batteries which are still under development.

多用途太陽能廠及天然氣做後盾，

So what's holding new nuclear back?

搭配目前仍在發展的蓄電池。

Outdated regulations and yesterday's mindsets.

那麼，是甚麼阻礙了新核能技術的發展？

We have not used our latest scientific thinking on radiological health

過時的法令與老舊的想法。

to think how we communicate with the public

我們尚未運用最新的科技 解決放射性的健康問題

and govern the testing of new nuclear reactors.

以及要如何與大眾溝通

We have new scientific knowledge that we need to use

並管理新核能反應爐的測試能力。

in order to improve the way we regulate nuclear industry.

我們有新的科技知識，需要被使用

The second thing is we've got a mindset

才能改進核能產業的規範。

that it takes 25 years and 2 to 5 billion dollars

第二件事，就是我們有個大致的想法，

to develop a nuclear power plant.

需要花25年，20~50億美金

That comes from the historical, military mindset

來發展新的核能電廠技術。

of the places nuclear power came from.

這是來自歷史、軍事方面的知識累積，

These new nuclear ventures are saying

這些是核能技術的知識來源。

that they can deliver power for 5 cents a kilowatt hour;

這些新的核能探險家告訴我們

they can deliver it for 100 gigawatts a year;

他們只要花5分錢就能產出 1千瓦小時的能量；

they can demo it by 2025;

一年可以產出1000億瓦的能量；

and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,

他們可以在2025年做展示；

if only we give them a chance.

2030年規模量產，

Right now, we're basically waiting for a miracle.

如果我們願意給他們機會。