[Is it ethical to evolve the human body?]

這裡有個重要的問題，

Because we're beginning to get all the tools together to evolve ourselves.

（改造人體是否符合道德？）

And we can evolve bacteria and we can evolve plants

因為我們已經開始利用各種工具 來改造自己的身體。

and we can evolve animals,

我們可以改造細菌、 我們可以改造植物，

and we're now reaching a point where we really have to ask,

我們還可以改造動物；

is it really ethical and do we want to evolve human beings?

但是在此時，我們必須要自問：

And as you're thinking about that,

我們真的想要改造人類嗎？ 而這是否符合道德？

let me talk about that in the context of prosthetics,

當你在思考這個問題時，

prosthetics past, present, future.

讓我先從「義肢」方面 來談這個話題，

So this is the iron hand

包括義肢的過去、現在、未來。

that belonged to one of the German counts.

這支鐵製手臂

Loved to fight, lost his arm in one of these battles.

是屬於一位德國伯爵的。

No problem, he just made a suit of armor,

好戰的他，在一次戰爭中 失去了一隻手臂，

put it on,

不過沒關係， 他製作了一套鎧甲，

perfect prosthetic.

穿上它，

That's where the concept of ruling with an iron fist comes from.

就是個完美的義肢了。

And of course these prosthetics have been getting more and more useful,

這就是「鐵腕統治」概念的由來。

more and more modern.

當然，這些義肢也越來越好用，

You can hold soft-boiled eggs.

越來越現代化了。

You can have all types of controls, and as you're thinking about that,

你可以用它拿起半熟的水煮蛋。

there are wonderful people like Hugh Herr

你可以任意地操控義肢， 而當你正在這麼想時，

who have been building absolutely extraordinary prosthetics.

像休‧賀爾教授這樣了不起的人，

So the wonderful Aimee Mullins will go out and say,

已經製作出令人讚嘆的義肢。

how tall do I want to be tonight?

好到讓艾美．姆林絲 可以在出門前說：

Or Hugh will say what type of cliff do I want to climb?

「今晚我想要變成多高呢？」

Or does somebody want to run a marathon, or does somebody want to ballroom dance?

或是讓賀爾教授可以說： 「這次我想攀登哪一種峭壁呢？」

And as you adapt these things,

或「有人想穿上義肢跑馬拉松嗎？」 「有人想穿上義肢跳國標舞嗎？」

the interesting thing about prosthetics is they've been coming inside the body.

而當你還在適應這些改變的時候，

So these external prosthetics have now become artificial knees.

更有趣的事情是， 義肢已經進入人體內了。

They've become artificial hips.

所以這些原本在人體外的義肢 現在成為人工關節，

And then they've evolved further

成為人造的大腿骨。

to become not just nice to have

然後，它們又更加進化，

but essential to have.

不只成為人類的好幫手。

So when you're talking about a heart pacemaker as a prosthetic,

現在更成為必需品了。

you're talking about something that isn't just, "I'm missing my leg,"

所以當你提到： 「心律調節器是義肢的一種，」

it's, "if I don't have this, I can die."

代表的意義已經不只是像 「我少了一條腿 」那樣，

And at that point, a prosthetic becomes a symbiotic relationship

而是：「如果沒有它，我會死。 」

with the human body.

此時，義肢和人體

And four of the smartest people that I've ever met --

形成了一種共生的關係。

Ed Boyden, Hugh Herr, Joe Jacobson, Bob Lander --

我所見過最聰明的人當中， 有四個人──

are working on a Center for Extreme Bionics.

埃德．博伊登、休．賀爾、 喬伊．雅各布森、鮑伯．蘭--

And the interesting thing of what you're seeing here is

他們都任職於 「極致仿生研究中心」。

these prosthetics now get integrated into the bone.

你們現在可以看到 一件有趣的事情：

They get integrated into the skin.

現在義肢已經整合到骨骼當中，

They get integrated into the muscle.

整合到皮膚當中，

And one of the other sides of Ed

甚至整合到肌肉當中。

is he's been thinking about how to connect the brain

另一方面，埃德也開始思考：

using light or other mechanisms

如何利用光線或其他機制

directly to things like these prosthetics.

將大腦和義肢

And if you can do that,

直接進行連結。

then you can begin changing fundamental aspects of humanity.

如果你能夠做到這點，

So how quickly you react to something depends on the diameter of a nerve.

那麼你就可以開始 改變人類的基本構造了。

And of course, if you have nerves that are external or prosthetic,

你對事物的反應速度 取決於神經的直徑，

say with light or liquid metal,

當然，如果你有體外神經或是義肢，

then you can increase that diameter

比如說，利用光線或是液態金屬，

and you could even increase it theoretically to the point where,

你可以增加神經的直徑，

as long as you could see the muzzle flash, you could step out of the way of a bullet.

根據理論，我們甚至可以 提升反應速度，

Those are the order of magnitude of changes you're talking about.

到當你一看見槍口火光， 就可以躲開子彈。

This is a fourth sort of level of prosthetics.

這就是我們所謂的 級數的改變了。

These are Phonak hearing aids,

這是屬於第四等級的義肢。

and the reason why these are so interesting

這些是峰力公司製造的助聽器，

is because they cross the threshold from where prosthetics are something

而它們讓人非常感興趣的原因是，

for somebody who is "disabled"

它們跨出了

and they become something that somebody who is "normal"

義肢是給「殘疾」人士使用的門檻，

might want to actually have,

它們變成了「正常人」

because what this prosthetic does, which is really interesting,

也會想用的東西，

is not only does it help you hear,

因為這個助聽器能做的事 真的很有趣。

you can focus your hearing,

它不僅僅能夠幫助你聽見聲音，

so it can hear the conversation going on over there.

還能幫助你專注聆聽，

You can have superhearing.

所以你能夠聽到遠處的對話。

You can have hearing in 360 degrees. You can have white noise.

你可以擁有超強的聽力。

You can record, and oh, by the way, they also put a phone into this.

你可以聽到所有角度的聲音。 你可以聽到白噪音。

So this functions as your hearing aid and also as your phone.

你可以用它錄音。 順便一提，它們還有手機的功能。

And at that point, somebody might actually want to have a prosthetic voluntarily.

所以它不僅是助聽器， 也是你的手機。

All of these thousands of loosely connected little pieces

到那個時候，有些人很可能 會自願去裝義肢了。

are coming together,

這些成千上萬的 看似不相關的小零件，

and it's about time we ask the question,

正在整合當中，

how do we want to evolve human beings over the next century or two?

所以是時候，我們要問：

And for that we turn to a great philosopher

在一、二個世紀內， 我們想如何改造人類？

who was a very smart man despite being a Yankee fan.

針對這個問題， 我們向一位偉大的哲學家求助，

(Laughter)

他是非常聰明的人， 雖然是個洋基球迷。

And Yogi Berra used to say, of course, that it's very tough to make predictions,

（笑聲）

especially about the future.

約吉．貝拉說， 預測不是一件簡單的事情，

(Laughter)

特別是關於未來的預測。

So instead of making a prediction about the future to begin with,

（笑聲）

let's take what's happening in the present with people like Tony Atala,

所以，我們從開始就不先預測未來，

who is redesigning 30-some-odd organs.

讓我們看看當下發生在 托尼．阿塔拉身上的事，

And maybe the ultimate prosthetic isn't having something external, titanium.

他正在重新設計 30 多個的器官。

Maybe the ultimate prosthetic is take your own gene code,

也許終極義肢已經不需要 金屬鈦這種外來的材料。

remake your own body parts,

也許終極義肢會用你自己的基因代碼，

because that's a whole lot more effective than any kind of a prosthetic.

重新製造你身體的一些部分，

But while you're at it, then you can take the work of Craig Venter and Ham Smith.

因為那比任何一種義肢的效果都要好。

And one of the things that we've been doing

順便，你也可以看看

is trying to figure out how to reprogram cells.

克雷格．文特爾 和翰姆．史密斯的作品。

And if you can reprogram a cell,

我們一直以來想要做的事情之一，

then you can change the cells in those organs.

就是找出重新編碼細胞的方法。

So if you can change the cells in those organs,

如果你可以重新編碼細胞，

maybe you make those organs more radiation-resistant.

你就可以改變器官內的細胞。

Maybe you make them absorb more oxygen.

所以，如果你可以改變 器官內的細胞，

Maybe you make them more efficient

也許你就能讓那些器官 更能抵抗輻射。

to filter out stuff that you don't want in your body.

也許你就能使它們 吸收更多的氧氣。

And over the last few weeks, George Church has been in the news a lot

也許你使它們更有效率地

because he's been talking about taking one of these programmable cells

過濾出你體內不需要的物質。

and inserting an entire human genome

過去幾個禮拜， 喬治．丘奇經常上新聞。

into that cell.

因為他一直在談論一種 可編碼的細胞，

And once you can insert an entire human genome into a cell,

以及把整個人類基因組，

then you begin to ask the question,

插入那個細胞的事。

would you want to enhance any of that genome?

一旦你能夠將整個 人類基因組插入細胞當中，

Do you want to enhance a human body?

你就會開始問這樣的問題：

How would you want to enhance a human body?

你要強化哪些基因呢？

Where is it ethical to enhance a human body

你想要強化人體嗎？

and where is it not ethical to enhance a human body?

你想怎樣強化人體呢？

And all of a sudden, what we're doing

那些部分的強化是合乎道德的？

is we've got this multidimensional chess board

而那些部位是不合乎道德的？

where we can change human genetics by using viruses

突然之間，我們正在做的，

to attack things like AIDS,

好像是在一盤多度空間的棋盤，

or we can change the gene code through gene therapy

在那裡我們可以透過病毒 來改變人類的基因，

to do away with some hereditary diseases,

以攻擊愛滋這樣的疾病；

or we can change the environment,

或者透過基因療法改變基因的序列，

and change the expression of those genes in the epigenome

來去除一些遺傳疾病；

and pass that on to the next generations.

或者，我們可以改變環境，

And all of a sudden, it's not just one little bit,

以及改變表觀基因組的基因；

it's all these stacked little bits

然後傳給後代。

that allow you to take little portions of it

突然間，這些不再是 一點點微小的改變，

until all the portions coming together

而是全部的一點一滴累積起來，

lead you to something that's very different.

你可選擇一些小部分，

And a lot of people are very scared by this stuff.

然後將選擇的部分集合起來，

And it does sound scary, and there are risks to this stuff.

你就變得非常不同了。

So why in the world would you ever want to do this stuff?

很多人對此感到害怕。

Why would we really want to alter the human body

這聽起來確實很恐怖，也有風險。

in a fundamental way?

為什麼我們還是想要這麼做呢？

The answer lies in part

為什麼我們想要

with Lord Rees,

從基本上改變人體呢？

astronomer royal of Great Britain.

提供我們部分答案的

And one of his favorite sayings is the universe is 100 percent malevolent.

是里斯男爵，

So what does that mean?

英國皇家天文學家，

It means if you take any one of your bodies at random,

他最喜歡說的一句話就是： 宇宙是百分之百惡劣的環境。

drop it anywhere in the universe,

這句話是什麽意思？

drop it in space, you die.

意思就是，如果從人類當中

Drop it on the Sun, you die.

隨機選出一位，

Drop it on the surface of Mercury, you die.

把他丟到宇宙的任何一個地方，

Drop it near a supernova, you die.

丟到外太空，你就會死。

But fortunately, it's only about 80 percent effective.

丟到太陽上，你就會死。

So as a great physicist once said,

丟到水星表面上，你也會死。

there's these little upstream eddies of biology

丟到超新星附近，還是死。

that create order in this rapid torrent of entropy.

但還好，這句話 只有 80% 是正確的。

So as the universe dissipates energy,

一位偉大的物理學家曾說過，

there's these upstream eddies that create biological order.

在生物界，小小的上游漩渦，

Now, the problem with eddies is,

在混沌的熵流中創造了致序。

they tend to disappear.

就在宇宙分散能量的同時，

They shift. They move in rivers.

這些上游漩渦創造了生物的秩序。

And because of that, when an eddy shifts,

然而，漩渦的問題是，

when the Earth becomes a snowball, when the Earth becomes very hot,

它們會消失，

when the Earth gets hit by an asteroid, when you have supervolcanoes,

它們轉向，在河中移動。

when you have solar flares,

因此，當有漩渦移動的時候，

when you have potentially extinction-level events

當地球變成雪球的時候， 或是變得炙熱的時候，

like the next election --

當地球被小行星撞擊的時候， 當超級火山爆發的時候，

(Laughter)

當太陽耀斑爆發的時候，

then all of a sudden, you can have periodic extinctions.

當我們遇到潛在的毀滅事件的時候，

And by the way, that's happened five times on Earth,

比如下屆總統選舉——

and therefore it is very likely

（笑聲）

that the human species on Earth is going to go extinct someday.

突然間，我們就會遇到 周期性的地球大滅絕。

Not next week,

順便提一下，這在地球上 已經發生過五次了，

not next month,

因此，人類有朝一日

maybe in November, but maybe 10,000 years after that.

很有可能在地球上消失。

As you're thinking of the consequence of that,

不是下禮拜，

if you believe that extinctions are common and natural

不是下個月，

and normal and occur periodically,

也許就在 11 月， 也許是那之後的一萬年。

it becomes a moral imperative to diversify our species.

一旦考慮到人類滅絕的後果，

And it becomes a moral imperative

如果你相信大滅絕是常見且自然的，

because it's going to be really hard to live on Mars

正常的而且會周期性地發生，

if we don't fundamentally modify the human body.

那麼，將我們的物種多樣化 在道德上就變得勢在必行了。

Right?

它成為道德上的必要性的原因是，

You go from one cell,

因為如果我們不從基本上改善人體，

mom and dad coming together to make one cell,

人類在火星上很難生存。

in a cascade to 10 trillion cells.

對嗎？

We don't know, if you change the gravity substantially,

我們都來自一個細胞，

if the same thing will happen to create your body.

由父母結合所產生的細胞，

We do know that if you expose our bodies as they currently are

經由分裂變成了 10 兆個細胞。

to a lot of radiation, we will die.

我們不敢確定當引力有巨大變化時，

So as you're thinking of that, you have to really redesign things

相同的過程是否還會 在我們的體內發生。

just to get to Mars.

目前我們能確定的是，

Forget about the moons of Neptune or Jupiter.

如果你將自己的身體 暴露在強輻射下，

And to borrow from Nikolai Kardashev,

我們就會死。

let's think about life in a series of scales.

所以當你在想這些時，

So Life One civilization

光是去火星， 我們就得重新設計人體。

is a civilization that begins to alter his or her looks.

更不用說去海王星或木星了。

And we've been doing that for thousands of years.

借用一下尼古拉·卡爾達肖夫的話 （前蘇聯天體物理學家），

You've got tummy tucks and you've got this and you've got that.

讓我們將生命想成是一系列的文明，

You alter your looks, and I'm told

在一級生命文明當中

that not all of those alterations take place for medical reasons.

人類可以改變長相。

(Laughter)

我們已經這樣做了數千年了。

Seems odd.

你可以做腹部整形， 整整這兒，整整那兒。

A Life Two civilization is a different civilization.

你能改變你的外觀，我聽人家說

A Life Two civilization alters fundamental aspects of the body.

不是所有的整形都與醫療有關。

So you put human growth hormone in, the person grows taller,

（笑聲）

or you put x in and the person gets fatter or loses metabolism

好像有點怪。

or does a whole series of things,

二級生命文明就不同了。

but you're altering the functions in a fundamental way.

二級生命文明可以改變 身體的基本特徵。

To become an intrasolar civilization,

你可以注射生長激素， 使人長的更高，

we're going to have to create a Life Three civilization,

或者使用某種藥物， 讓人變胖或降低新陳代謝，

and that looks very different from what we've got here.

或者進行一系列的改變，

Maybe you splice in Deinococcus radiodurans

但你已經在基本上改變 人體的功能了。

so that the cells can resplice after a lot of exposure to radiation.

要成為太陽系內的文明，

Maybe you breathe by having oxygen flow through your blood

我們必須創造出三級生命文明，

instead of through your lungs.

這跟我們現在的世界完全不同。

But you're talking about really radical redesigns,

也許你會被植入 「抗輻射奇異球菌」，

and one of the interesting things that's happened in the last decade

讓細胞暴露在大量輻射 之後仍可重新結合。

is we've discovered a whole lot of planets out there.

也許你的呼吸是由氧氣 直接進入血液當中，

And some of them may be Earth-like.

而不是肺中。

The problem is, if we ever want to get to these planets,

但是我們正在說的 是完全徹底的重新設計，

the fastest human objects --

在過去十年間 發生了一件有趣的事情，

Juno and Voyager and the rest of this stuff --

就是我們在宇宙中 發現了很多的行星。

take tens of thousands of years

其中有些可能很像地球。

to get from here to the nearest solar system.

問題是，如果我們想要 到達那些行星，

So if you want to start exploring beaches somewhere else,

最快的人造飛行器——

or you want to see two-sun sunsets,

朱諾號和航海家太空船， 還有其它類似的東西——

then you're talking about something that is very different,

也要花個數萬年，

because you have to change the timescale and the body of humans

才能到達離我們最近的恒星系。

in ways which may be absolutely unrecognizable.

所以，如果你想在 其他星球的海灘上散步，

And that's a Life Four civilization.

或者想要看到兩個太陽的日落，

Now, we can't even begin to imagine what that might look like,

那麼你在談的是非常不同的，

but we're beginning to get glimpses

因為你必須以完全超乎想像的程度，

of instruments that might take us even that far.

改變時間的維度和人體的構造。

And let me give you two examples.

這就是四級生命文明。

So this is the wonderful Floyd Romesberg,