Between them, the Castro brothers

卡斯楚兄弟前後

have ruled Cuba for 60 years.

統治古巴近六十年

And it used to be said that the Caribbean island never changes,

以前加勒比海群島常被人們說始终如一

but old age has made change biologically inevitable.

但還是有不可避免的

And Raul steps down as president on April 19, aged 86.

86 歲的勞爾．卡斯楚在四月十九號下任總統一職

What will that mean for the economy

而這會對經濟、

and the communist country's small band of entrepreneurs

共產主義國家裡的少數企業家

and self-employed?

和自僱者有什麼影響呢？

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] ( The transition from Raul ) is a natural change

(西文) 勞爾．卡斯楚的卸任是個很自然的轉變

that follows the laws of existence. It's a generational change.

也是按照著現存法律所執行的。這是個世代的轉變

Still, generational change also implies a change of perspective

世代的轉變也象徵了觀念的轉變

The economy has been hit by Hurricane Irma and the halving

艾瑪颶風席捲了整個經濟，

of aid from Venezuela.

也因此瓜分了委內瑞拉的援助

It's estimated to be a third smaller than it was in 1985.

而經濟也預計會比 1985 年還緊縮了三倍

But US President Donald Trump has also

不過美國總統－川普也帶來影響，

had an effect, after partially reversing

就在歐巴馬稍稍扭轉了

a detente launched by his predecessor, Barack Obama.

緊張局勢之後

The number of international visitors had been rising,

國際旅客數量有顯著的提升

but has been badly hit.

但也帶來負面的影響

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] It's logical because you open a webpage of say TripAdvisor in Miami or somewhere else

(西文) 當你搜尋邁阿密或是其他地方，會出現像 TripAdvisor 這類的旅遊網站

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] and if you search for Cuba you get a warning message from the US states

但如果你搜尋古巴，你會得到由美國政府發出的警告資訊

Obviously that has an impact, and it is that Americans don't come.

這很明顯地造成了衝擊，而美國人也不敢來了

For us 'Trump effect' has been brutal.

對我們來說「川普效應」很慘忍

It's as if the (economic supply) chain has broken.

就像是經濟供應鏈整個瓦解了

Because we have less work, they (other business) have less work too.

由於我們的工作量減少，也連帶著其他產業

The impact has been very strong.

這對我們的影響很大

Other US measures such as an Internet Task Force

其他美國所採取的措施，像是網際網路工程小組

to expand the flow of information on the island

就是去增加島上資訊的流通

are at risk of backfiring.

以免物極必反

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] We could be cast as being part of that US initiative to undermine Cuba.

我們很有可能成為美國暗地破壞古巴的犧牲者

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] Instead of helping us, the initiative hurts.

不只不幫助我們，甚至傷害我們

Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel is Castro's likely replacement.

副總統 Miguel Diaz-Canel 很有可能是卡斯楚的接班人

The 57-year-old has lashed out at dissidents,

57 歲的Miguel Diaz-Canel 大力抨擊反對者、

independent media, and foreign embassies.

獨立媒體還有外國使者

Under Raul, 580,000 self-employed businesses

在勞爾．卡斯楚的統治下，有 58 萬家自營企業創立

were created, but now, they fear a looming government

但現在，他們都很害怕

economic reform package.

政府對於經濟的改革

And there is added uncertainty of new private sector regulations.

甚至還加上許多對於私營企業不明確的的規定

[NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] I imagine that studies they are making will be better to Cuban economy,

我認為他們現在在做的研究是對古巴的經濟有所貢獻的

and I think there should be more allowance given to Cuban entrepreneurs to help their country

而我也認為應該給古巴的企業家更多的津貼來幫助國家

But we have to wait and see. From crisis come big changes.

但從危機到轉機的這個過程，我們也只能等著看了。

It's a vulnerable moment for the Communist Party and for Cuba.

這個時期不論是對共產黨還是古巴都是很脆弱的

Liberalising the economy would inevitably

經濟開放無可避免地

loosen the party's grip on power.

會使政黨的權力下降

The litmus test for the new leadership

對於新政府立見分曉的檢驗辦法

will be crackdown or reform.

不是崩盤即是改革成功

[MUSIC PLAYING]

(音樂)