But we were born too early to be part of it.

但我們似乎生不逢時

Or were we?

是這樣嗎？

The reality is,

事實上

we could begin our dream by building a Moon base today.

我們可以藉由在月球上建立基地開始，逐步實現我們的夢想

We actually do have the technology

我們的確具備了這樣的科技水準

and current estimates from NASA and the private sector

而目前由美國太空總署 NASA 以及私人調查部門

say it could be done for 20 to 40 billion dollars, spread out over about a decade.

指出大約花費 200 億至 400 億美元、10 年左右的時間就可以實現

The price is comparable to the International Space Station

所費的金額大約跟國際太空站差不多

or the budget surplus of Germany in 2017.

或者大約跟德國在 2017 年的預算餘額相當

Not that big an investment really.

其實真的不算是一項大投資

The payoff would be immeasurable.

但是得到的回饋是難以估算的

The Moon is a sandbox to develop new technologies and exploit unlimited resources.

月球可以成為新科技發展的沙盒並且具有無限的資源可供利用

It would start a new space race

會開啟新一波太空競賽

and lay the foundation for us to spread out into the solar system and beyond.

並且替人類擴張至整個太陽系甚至之外的遠景打下基礎

It would create a vast array of new technologies to benefit us on Earth

可能會創造出非常多新科技，讓生活在地球上的人們受益

and we would all be part of it.

且我們都會是見證者

So, why aren't we doing it?

所以，為什麼我們不這麼做？

Well, sadly, it's hard to get governments interested in long-term investments in the future of humanity.

這個嘛，很不幸地，對未來人類長期的這種投資很難引起政府的興趣

Let's imagine, just doing it.

我們試著想像，如果我們真的這麼做了會是怎樣的一個過程

If we start today, how would we build a Moon base?

如果我們今天開始建造月球基地的話，該如何著手？

Throughout history,

有史以來

colonization happened in phases:

殖民化過程會經過幾個階段：

In the first phase of the age of exploration of the new world, for example,

舉例來說，第一階段是新世界的發現

European monarchs funded expeditions to chart and discover and to stake their claims.

歐洲君主們資助探險計畫為了是要繪製航海圖、探索未知領域，以及鞏固他們的統治地位

They planted a flag and set up a camp, but they didn't stay.

他們會到新世界插上旗幟和設立營地，但不會長久定居下來

In the second phase, small missions set up outposts and settlements were founded,

第二階段，會建立前哨基地和據點，以及執行小型任務

which was still very dependent on their home countries for supplies.

而這些據點非常依賴母國的資源挹注

Some failed, but others survived and established a permanent presence.

某些會在過程中失敗，但其他的會存活下來並且建立一個永久的據點

Only then, in the third phase, did a true colony form

直到那個時候，進入第三階段，殖民化才真正成型

to which tradesmen and laborers could emigrate,

貿易商和勞工才得以移居到殖民地

creating new wealth and opportunities for themselves and their families,

建立一個新的財富和生活機會給他們自己和家人

sending extreme wealth back to their countries of origin.

把極大的財富送回到他們的祖國

When we colonize the Moon,

當我們殖民月球時

we'll go through the same three phases.

我們將會走過相同的三個階段

This time, without murdering millions of innocent people in the process.

這次，過程中不會謀殺數百萬無辜的人類

The Moon is not a welcoming place for living things.

因為月球並不是一個適合生物存活的地方

A Moon day lasts 29 Earth days,

月球上一天的時間在地球上會度過 29 天

with a difference of maybe 300 degrees Celsius between sunlight and shade.

日照處和陰影處的溫差可以達到攝氏 300 度

There's no atmosphere to shield us from meteorites, big and small, or cosmic radiation.

也沒有大氣層保護我們不受大小隕石的撞擊，或是宇宙射線的照射

Worse still, the lunar surface is covered in a layer of nasty jagged dust.

更糟的事，月球表面上覆蓋了一層崎嶇不平的灰塵

The Moon is hard.

要在月球上生活是無比艱難

But we're good at doing hard things.

但我們擅長面對困難的事

In the first phase of lunar colonization,

在我們殖民月球的第一階段

our explorers proved it can be done

我們的探測者會證明這是可行的計畫

that a new world can be reached.

也就是這個新的世界是到達得了的

This face started 60 years ago with the Apollo missions.

自 60 年前的阿波羅任務就是第一階段的序幕

Since then, satellites like the American Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter have mapped the Moon,

從此，美國月球偵查號繞軌衛星就開始繪製月球表面的地圖

while rovers like the Chinese Yutu, have studied the composition of the lunar surface.

而中國的 Yutu 號探測車，就開始研究月球表面的組成成分

Looking for water, ice and metals.

找尋水、冰以及金屬的蹤跡

Phase one is more or less complete.

這樣一來第一階段多少算是完成

We know what we need to know to enter phase two.

我們知道進入第二階段該做些什麼

In the second phase,

在第二階段裡

astronauts will build the first Moon base and this could begin today.

太空人將會建立第一個月球基地，而這是我們今天就可以開始著手進行的

The first small Moon base could be completed in a decade.

第一個小型月球基地可以在十年之內竣工

The first nation that establishes this base,

第一個建立這種基地的國家

will be akin to the first nations building outposts in the new world 500 years ago.

就會像 500 年前在新世界建立第一個基地的國家一樣

It's expensive to send rockets to the Moon.

因為把火箭送上月球很昂貴

So we will send as little as possible.

我們會盡可能減少運送的次數

The base will be light,

而且基地會以輕量化來設計

little more than inflatable habitats for crews of no more than 12,

會稍微比充氣式的住居再重一點點，大概可以容納約 12 個人以內的空間

and will be deployed somewhere with a natural shelter.

並且會被放置在有天然屏障之處

Options include caves, like underground lava tube tunnels,

像是洞穴，還有地下熔岩形成的洞穴

or craters near the poles, where the days are six months long.

或是極圈附近的隕石坑 (雖然這裡白晝長達六個月) 都是不錯的選擇

These astronauts will not stay long.

這一批太空人不會待得太久

The habitat is likely to be abandoned between missions,

一但這個臨時駐地上的太陽能充電板在月球永夜的夜晚無法產生電力

as solar panels cannot generate electricity during the lunar night.

就會在任務和任務之際遭到拋棄

But they'll do the groundwork to enable humans to stay permanently.

但是他們會打好地基讓人類能夠永久地居住下來

Our first crew will consist of scientists and engineers

第一波的成員由科學家和工程師組成

who will study the composition of the Moon

這些成員都會對月球的組成有所研究

and whose experiments will explore ways of using the available lunar material.

以及研究關於如何就地使用月球上現存可用的材料的各種方法

Say purifying the lunar ice and turning it into water for human use.

像是將月球上的冰淨化成可供人類使用的潔淨水

And water is important for far more than drinking.

水的重要性不僅在於飲用

They can use it to experiment with growing plants for food.

人們可以用淨化過的水來實驗種植作物食用

Hydrogen fuel cells will store power through the long night,

氫燃料電池能夠儲存電力以供漫漫長夜使用

extending astronauts' days.

延長太空人能夠在月球上執行任務的日子

And most importantly:

而最重要的是

It could be split into hydrogen and oxygen.

淨化之後的水能夠被通電分解成氫氣和氧氣

Rocket fuel!

也就是組成火箭燃料的成分！

By harvesting water from the Moon and putting it into orbit,

把從月球上擷取的水放置到月球軌道的太空站裡使用

the Moon base will supply an orbital depot.

月球基地將可以維持一個月球軌道發射站

Where scientific missions to Mars and the outer solar system can refuel.

提供前往火星和太陽系之外的科學任務補給燃料的中繼站

Compared to the Earth, it's much easier and cheaper to get things off the Moon into orbit.

與地球比起來，要將物體從月球上送到太空軌道當中更加便宜且簡單

Colonizing Mars may mean starting from the Moon.

殖民火星的夢想可能要從殖民月球開始

But this isn't a true colony, not yet.

但這並非真的完成了殖民的任務，還沒真的實現

The base will be abandoned if funding stops.

如果資金中轉的話這些基地就會被拋棄

If we want our base to grow into the third phase, into a true colony,

如果我們希望這些基地真的進入殖民的第三階段，也就是實現真正的殖民的話

it must become self-sufficient, supporting itself via exports to Earth.

就必須讓這些基地能夠自給自足，不需從地球額外提供資源

Now, private contractors arrive looking to get rich off lunar resources and support services.

現在，私人承包商抵達月球，尋找可以從月球開採的資源以及提供的後勤補給服務來賺取財富

If it's cheaper to produce rocket fuel in space,

如果在太空中製造火箭燃料更便宜的話

what else can they get rich on?

還有什麼是他們能夠從中獲利的呢？

They could extract precious metals,

他們可以藉由淬煉撞擊在月球上的隕石當中

abundant in impact craters

的貴金屬

and other raw materials from the lunar regolith.

以及月球風化層中其他的稀有材料

One promising possibility is the mining of helium-3,

一個可以期待的機會就是開採氦-3 (氦的同位素之一)

an isotope that could one day be used in nuclear fusion reactors,

是未來可以用在核融合反應爐中的一種同位素

something the Chinese lunar exploration program is currently looking into.

中國月球探險計畫正在探勘這種物質

Future colonists may export helium-3 back to Earth,

未來的殖民者可能就會將氦-3 出口至地球

providing us with cheap and clean fusion energy.

提供我們更乾淨和便宜的核融合能源

Asteroids could be pulled into the Moon's orbit and mined.

還能夠將較小的行星拖移至月球軌道進行礦物開採

With commercial exports to Earth,

有了商業物資外銷到地球

the colony is fully in its third phase,

這個殖民計劃正式進入第三階段

self-sufficient and economically productive.

滿足了自給自足且經濟上具有生產力的條件

Our base will begin using lunar material in its construction projects, if it's to continue growing.

如果這個殖民計劃的規模持續擴張的話，我們的基地將開始使用月球上的材料來建造

Fortunately, lunar soil has all the necessary ingredients to make concrete.

幸運地，月球土壤具有所有需要製作混凝土的素材

Robotic mining rigs can sift the lunar dust for organic molecules

機器採礦探鑽車能夠將月球灰塵中的有機分子篩選出來

and could be used to build huge structures

也可能被用來建造無法從地球上運來

way too massive to be brought from Earth.

的超大型建築或結構物

While advances in 3D printing,

當3Ｄ列印的技術持續發展

will make it possible to produce almost everything else the crews need.

將能夠在月球上製造幾乎所有殖民組員所需要的任何東西

It's hard to say when exactly the colony becomes self-sustaining.

很難講殖民地何時能真正變得能夠維持自己獨立運作

Growth is gradual,

進步是漸進式的

experiments are replaced by industry

漸漸地實驗計畫將被工業生產取代

and the population steadily reaches the hundreds,

人口也逐步達到數百人

encompassing more than just scientists.

居住者將不再只有科學家了

Engineers, pilots and contractors representing countries and corporations will be present.

各個國家和公司的工程師、駕駛以及承包商將會進駐

Two of these people will make a breakthrough.

這兩種人會一起帶來一個突破

Not scientific, but social.

不是科學上的突破而是社會意義上的

They will have the first extraterrestrial child.

他們會創造第一批外星寶寶

Throughout history,

有史以來

the birth of the first child was celebrated as a moment where the seed of a colony

第一批小孩都會被當作殖民地的種子

finally and irreversibly took root.

象徵著殖民地最終且不可逆的

Here, it means that the Moon is not just a place for scientists and engineers to work,

在這裡的意思就是指月球不僅是給科學家、工程師工作的地方而已

it's a place for people to live, to raise a family.

也是讓人們可以居住、共組家庭的家園

Once this transition happens, the colony grows rapidly,

一但走到這個階段，殖民地成長將會增速

building more habitats and schools and farms and all the things needed to support the growing population.

更多的居住地、學校、耕作地會被開發、建造，而且提供人口成長所需物質條件也會被滿足

As our colony grows, all kinds of new technologies will be invented to sustain it.

隨著殖民地成長，所有支撐殖民地需要的新科技將會被發明出來

They might develop crops that efficiently recycle carbon dioxide,

或許會開發出循環利用二氧化碳的作物

or the grow with very little water.

或者只需要很少的水就能成長的作物

They might find ways to recycle and reuse 100% of their waste,

也許對於地球都是具有相當大的價值的

technologies that are extremely valuable for Earth.

百分之百回收、循環再利用廢棄物的方法和科技會被發現

They could even build the first space elevator in the Solar System.

可能也甚至會建造太陽系中第一個太空電梯

With a space elevator, spacecraft, astronauts and raw materials,

有了太空電梯、太空船的幫助

could be brought back and forth from lunar orbit, without needing to use rockets at all.

就能將太空人和基礎原物料來回從月球軌道運送，完全不需要用到火箭

The Moon may become a hub for economic activity on a scale that's hard to imagine right now.

月球可能成為經濟活動規模大到現在難以想像的樞紐

It's hard to say who will own the colony at this point.

現在要說哪個國家會擁有月球殖民據點還太早

Will the first person born on the Moon take the national identity of their parents,

會是在月球上出生的第一批人承繼他們父母親的國籍

or will a new generation melt together into a new lunar society?

抑或是新的一代融合成為一個新的月球社會？

And when existing treaties that bar any nation from owning the moon are inevitably rewritten,

而不可避免地當現存禁止任何的國揪在月球上擁有的據點條款被改寫時

will the colonists be given a say?

殖民者對於新的條款會有話語權嗎？

Will they declare independence from the Earth?

他們會宣布從地球獨立嗎？

However it happens,

不論發生什麼狀況

the Moon is a perfect sandbox to learn how to colonize the Solar System,

月球都是個學習如何殖民太陽系的完美的沙盒

the perfect project unify nations,

一個能夠將各個國家凝聚起來的完美計畫

and the only way to guarantee our survival as a species,

且是當地球發生了不幸的悲劇時

should something tragic happen on Earth.

唯一保證能夠以同一個種族延續下來的方法

If we ever want to colonize the Milky Way,

如果我們曾經有任何殖民銀河系的野心

we'll have to start somewhere.

我們必定從某處開始進行

So why not start there?

所以為何不從那開始？

Why not start now?

為何不現在開始？

While unfortunately you can't jump on a spacecraft

雖然不幸地現在你還不能跳上太空船

and go to the Moon right now,

直奔月球

you can learn more interesting things about space and our universe.

你能夠學會更多關於太空和我們的宇宙的有趣事情

And we can even help you with that.

而我們甚至能夠在這點上幫助你

Kurzgesagt and Brilliant are collaborating on a six-part video series

Kurzgesagt 和 Brilliant 一起合作一個

about our favorite science and space topics.

關於我們最喜歡的科學和太空為主題的長度六集影片

Kurzgesagt has worked with Brilliant for a while now

Kurzgesagt 已經與 Brilliant 合作一段時間了

and we love what they're doing.

而且我們很愛他們現在的影片

In a nutshell, Brilliant teaches you science and maths with a hands-on approach,

總而言之，Brilliant 透過讓你自己實際解題目的方式

by solving puzzles yourself, you learn to understand concepts instead of just memorizing facts.

教你科學和數學，你會理解這些觀念而不僅是填鴨式教育

If you'd like to think more like a scientist,

你若想要更像個科學家般思考的話

go to brilliant.org/nutshell and sign up for free.

請到 brilliant.org/nutshell 然後免費註冊

The first 698 people to use the link get their annual premium membership at a 20% discount

頭 698 位使用這個連結將可以 8 折價購買一年份的高級會員

and also support our collaboration with Brilliant.

並且也同時代表您們支持我們與 Brilliant 合作的計畫