and today, I want to talk about three things that the game has taught me

今天，我想和大家分享撲克比賽教會我的三件事

around decision-making that I find apply to everyday life.

適用於日常生活的決策

Now the first of these things is about luck.

首先，第一件事就是運氣

Now, like poker, life is also a game of skill and luck,

人生就像撲克比賽需要運氣和技巧

and when it comes to the biggest things we care about --

當說到我們最在乎的事情是 --

health, wealth and relationships --

健康、財富和人際關係 --

these outcomes don't only depend on the quality of our decision-making,

這些結果不只取決於我們做的決定

but also the roll of life's dice.

也會被人生的骰子影響

For example, we can be perfectly health-conscious

舉個例子，我們很注重身體健康

and still get unlucky with something like cancer.

但仍然遇到不幸的事情像是癌症

Or we can smoke 20 a day and live to a ripe old age,

或是我們每天抽 20 根菸，然後過著晚年生活

and this kind of ambiguity can make it hard for us to know

因此有時這些不明確的事情造成我們

how good our strategies are, sometimes,

很難理解這些策略有多好用

especially when we're experiencing a lot of success.

尤其是當我們經歷成功時

For example, back in 2010,

舉例來說，回顧 2010 年

I won a really big poker tournament known as the European Poker Tour.

我在歐洲撲克錦標賽獲得勝利

And because I'd only been playing full-time for about a year,

因為我當全職玩家大約一年

when I won, I assumed I must be rather brilliant.

然後就贏了，所以我覺得我一定很聰明

In fact, I thought I was so brilliant

事實上，我以為我很聰明

that I not only got rather lazy with studying the game,

以至於我不僅懶散於研究比賽

but I also got more risky,

而且我還冒了更大風險

started playing in the biggest tournaments I could

我開始參加更大型的撲克錦標賽

against the very best in the world.

我可以與世界上最厲害的高手對決

And then my profit graph went from a thing of beauty

然後我的利潤圖從高峰

to something kind of sad,

跌落下來

with this worrying downhill trend for a long time,

長期存在這令人擔心的下降趨勢

until I finally realized that I was overestimating my skill level,

直到最後我終於明白我太高估自己的能力

and got my act together.

然後同時改變行為

And this kind of reminds me of what we've been seeing

這讓我回想到在 2017 年我們在

in the cryptocurrency space, at least in 2017,

加密貨幣領域看到的

where the only thing that's been going up faster than the markets themselves

唯一比市場還快速成長的是

is the number of "senior investment specialists"

「高級投資專家」的數量

who have been appearing out of nowhere.

他們無所不在

Now I'm not saying it's not possible to have a strategic edge,

所以我不會說不可能有策略優勢

but at the same time, it's very easy to feel like a genius

但同時當你在快速成長的市場裡

when you're in a market that's going up so fast

即使是最差的策略也會獲利

that even the worst strategies are making a profit.

因此你會很容易認為自己是個天才

So when we're experiencing success,

所以當我們經歷成功時

it's important to take a moment to really ask ourselves

我們要真正地問自己有多少是靠自己的真實力

how much of it is truly down to us,

這是很重要的

because our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning.

因為當我們獲勝時，我們的自負喜歡淡化運氣的因素

Now, a second thing poker taught me

撲克教會我的第二件事是

is the importance of quantifying my thinking.

量化我的思想的重要性

When you're playing, you can't just get away with going,

當你在比賽時，你不能隨便離開

"Eh, they're probably bluffing."

「啊！他們可能是虛張聲勢。」

That's just going to lose you a bunch of money,

這將會讓你輸掉一大筆錢

because poker is a game of probabilities and precision,

因為撲克就是概率和精確度的比賽

and so you have to train yourself to think in numbers.

所以你必須訓練自己用數字思考

So now, whenever I catch myself

現在不論何時我都會

thinking vaguely about something really important, like,

模糊地思考一些很重要的事情，像是

"It's unlikely I'll forget what I want to say in my TED Talk,"

「我不可能會忘記我在 TED Talk 要說的話。」

I now try to estimate it numerically.

現在我試著用數字評估

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Trust me, it helps a lot with the planning process.

相信我，這對你規劃過程有很大的幫助

And the thing is, almost anything that could possibly happen here today,

還有幾乎任何事情都有可能在今天發生

or at any point in the future,

或是在未來的某個時間點

can also be expressed as a probability, too.

也可以被解釋為一種可能性

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

So now I also try to speak in numbers as well.

所以現在我也試著用數字說話

So if someone asks me,

假如有人問我

"Hey, Liv, do you think you're going to come along to that thing tonight?"

「嘿 Liv，你覺得你今晚會去做那件事嗎？」

instead of just saying to them, "Yeah, probably,"

我不會對他們說：「可能會吧！」

I actually give them my best estimate --

我會確實地給他們最佳的評估 --

say, 60 percent.

說：「60%。」

Because -- I know that sounds a little odd --

我知道這聽起來有點怪

but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter

但我在 Twitter 做了一個投票

of what people understand the word "probably" to mean,

大家對「可能」這個詞的意思了解

and this was the spread of answers.

然後這是廣泛的答案

Enormous!

極大的！

So apparently, it's absolutely useless

顯然地這對要確實地傳達

at actually conveying any real information.

任何真實的訊息是絕對沒用的

So if you guys catch yourselves using these vague words,

如果你們用含糊不清的詞來表達

like "probably" or "sometimes,"

像是「可能」或「有時」

try, instead, using numbers, because when we speak in numbers,

試著用數字代替，因為當我們用數字說話

we know what lands in the other person's brain.

我們知道對方腦中的想法

Now, the third thing I want to touch on today is intuition.

我今天要談的第三件事情是直覺

How often have you seen these kinds of inspirational memes

在你們的 Facebook 裡

in your Facebook feed?

你有多常看到這類鼓舞人心的箴言？

[Always trust your gut feeling and never second-guess.]

「永遠相信你的直覺，永遠不要猜測。」

They're nice, right?

說得很好，對吧？

It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul."

真可愛，「相信你的靈魂。」

Well, they're terrible advice.

嗯 ... 這些事很糟糕的建議

These are some of the best poker players in the world right now.

這些是現在世界上最厲害的撲克玩家們

Do they look like people who live purely off feelings and intuitions?

你覺得他們看起來是純粹靠著感性和直覺嗎？

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Look at them!

看看他們！

Obviously, these guys are about slow, careful analysis,

顯然地，這些玩家都是採取緩慢且謹慎分析

and that's because the game has outgrown the days

因為比賽已經超越

where pure street smarts and people-reading

純粹的街頭智慧和閱讀

can get you to the top.

就可以讓你到達高峰的日子

And that's because our intuitions aren't nearly as perfect

那是因為我們的直覺並不像

as we'd like to believe.

我們想的那麼完美

I mean, it'd be great, whenever we're in a tough spot,

每當我們處於困境時，我們從

to just have an answer appear to us from some magical source of inspiration.

神奇的靈感來源中找到答案是很棒的事情

But in reality, our gut is extremely vulnerable

但實際上，我們的直覺容易受到

to all kinds of wishful thinking and biases.

各種一廂情願和偏見的影響

So then, what is our gut good for?

那麼我們的直覺有什麼好處？

Well, all the studies I've read

我看過的研究裡

conclude that it's best-suited for everyday things

總結來說它最適合用在日常生活

that we have lots and lots of experience in,

因為我們有很多經驗

like how we just know that our friend is mad at us

像是在我們對他們說任何事情前

before we've even said anything to them,

我們如何知道朋友會對我們生氣

or whether we can fit our car into a tight parking spot.

或我們是否可以將汽車停放在狹窄的停車位

But when it comes to the really big stuff,

但當提及到重要的事情

like what's our career path going to be

像是未來我們的職涯道路怎麼走

or who should we marry,

或是我們應該和誰結婚

why should we assume that our intuitions

為什麼我們應該認為我們的直覺

are better calibrated for these than slow, proper analysis?

會比緩慢且精準地分析的更好？

I mean, they don't have any data to be based off.

我的意思是直覺沒有任何數據根據

So my third lesson is, while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,

所以我的第三課是雖然我們不應該忽略我們的直覺

we shouldn't overprivilege them either.

但我們也不應該過度依賴它

And I'd like to summarize these three lessons today

我想要用我作為撲克玩家的經歷

with my own set of memes,

和自己創造的箴言

with more of a poker-player twist.

為今天的三堂課做總結

"Success is sweetest when you achieve it across a large sample size."

「當你付出越多而得到的成功，會是最甜密的。」

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

"Your gut is your friend and so is a cost-benefit analysis."

「你的直覺和成本效益分析都是你的朋友。」

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

"The future is unknown, but you can damn well try and estimate it."

「未來是未知的，但你可以勇於嘗試和評估。」

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

(掌聲)