BRADLEY TAKES A LOOK AT THE LIKELY TIMELINE.

LIKELY TIMELINE. >> Reporter: WELL, ALISON, WE

>> Reporter: WELL, ALISON, WE HEARD FROM A FEW TALIBAN

HEARD FROM A FEW TALIBAN OFFICIALS THIS IS NEWS TO THEM,

OFFICIALS THIS IS NEWS TO THEM, TOO, BUT THEY'RE NOT SURPRISED.

TOO, BUT THEY'RE NOT SURPRISED. U.S. NEGOTIATING TEAM HASN'T

U.S. NEGOTIATING TEAM HASN'T TOLD THEIR TALIBAN COUNTERPARTS

TOLD THEIR TALIBAN COUNTERPARTS AND THE TALIBAN'S TOP BRASS WERE

AND THE TALIBAN'S TOP BRASS WERE LEARNING IT FROM THE MEDIA SO

LEARNING IT FROM THE MEDIA SO IT'S REALLY JUST THE LATEST IN A

IT'S REALLY JUST THE LATEST IN A LONG LINE OF IMPETUOUS FOREIGN

LONG LINE OF IMPETUOUS FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS AND

POLICY DECISIONS AND ANNOUNCEMENTS BY THIS

ANNOUNCEMENTS BY THIS ADMINISTRATION THAT'S CAUGHT NOT

ADMINISTRATION THAT'S CAUGHT NOT ONLY AMERICA'S ENEMIES OFF GUARD

ONLY AMERICA'S ENEMIES OFF GUARD BUT ALSO ITS ALLIES AND EVEN ITS

BUT ALSO ITS ALLIES AND EVEN ITS OWN U.S. SOLDIERS AND DIPLOMATS

OWN U.S. SOLDIERS AND DIPLOMATS WHO ARE OUT IN THE FIELD.

WHO ARE OUT IN THE FIELD. IT'S CAUGHT THEM ALL COMPLETELY

IT'S CAUGHT THEM ALL COMPLETELY BY SURPRISE.

BY SURPRISE. YOU KNOW, THERE ARE LOTS OF

YOU KNOW, THERE ARE LOTS OF EXAMPLES OF WHAT YOU COULD CALL

EXAMPLES OF WHAT YOU COULD CALL WHIPLASH DIPLOMACY, BUT, YOU

WHIPLASH DIPLOMACY, BUT, YOU KNOW, MAYBE THE MOST EMBLEMATIC

KNOW, MAYBE THE MOST EMBLEMATIC IS PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ON

IS PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN NEGOTIATIONS

AGAIN/OFF AGAIN NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT AND

BETWEEN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT AND THE TALIBAN.

THE TALIBAN. BUT THIS TIME THE PRESIDENT

BUT THIS TIME THE PRESIDENT APPEARS TO BE ANNOUNCING THIS

APPEARS TO BE ANNOUNCING THIS MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL, ABOUT A

MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL, ABOUT A THIRD OF U.S. SOLDIERS WHO ARE

THIRD OF U.S. SOLDIERS WHO ARE CURRENTLY IN AFGHANISTAN, AND

CURRENTLY IN AFGHANISTAN, AND HE'S ANNOUNCING IT ONLY DAYS

HE'S ANNOUNCING IT ONLY DAYS AFTER HIS PEACE ENVOY RESUMED

AFTER HIS PEACE ENVOY RESUMED NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE TALIBAN.

NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE TALIBAN. THAT WAS, AGAIN, ANOTHER

THAT WAS, AGAIN, ANOTHER SURPRISE DECISION EVEN FOR MANY

SURPRISE DECISION EVEN FOR MANY AMERICAN OFFICIALS.

AMERICAN OFFICIALS. SO NOW, AS ALWAYS, THIS DRAWDOWN

SO NOW, AS ALWAYS, THIS DRAWDOWN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE

IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESIDENT'S LONG-TERM POLICY ON

PRESIDENT'S LONG-TERM POLICY ON AFGHANISTAN.

AFGHANISTAN. ONE HE'S STATED SEVERAL TIMES

ONE HE'S STATED SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE.

BEFORE. HE'S ALWAYS SAID HE INTENDS TO

HE'S ALWAYS SAID HE INTENDS TO UNTANGLE THE U.S. FROM THESE

UNTANGLE THE U.S. FROM THESE UNTERM

UNTERM UNTERMIBLE WARS IN AFGHANISTAN

UNTERMIBLE WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST AND BEEN

AND THE MIDDLE EAST AND BEEN AMONG THE LONGEST AND MOST

AMONG THE LONGEST AND MOST EXPENSIVE MILITARY VENTURES IN

EXPENSIVE MILITARY VENTURES IN U.S. HISTORY.

U.S. HISTORY. THERE'S PLENTY OF REASON WHY THE

THERE'S PLENTY OF REASON WHY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION PUTS THIS

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION PUTS THIS THEIR SIGHTS.

THEIR SIGHTS. THE "WASHINGTON POST" SO-CALLED

THE "WASHINGTON POST" SO-CALLED AFGHANISTAN PAPERS SHOWED,

AFGHANISTAN PAPERS SHOWED, PUBLISHED LAST WEEK, THE U.S.

PUBLISHED LAST WEEK, THE U.S. AND ITS ALLIES HAVE ALMOST

AND ITS ALLIES HAVE ALMOST NOTHING TO SHOW FOR MORE THAN 18

NOTHING TO SHOW FOR MORE THAN 18 YEARS OF WAR AND OCCUPATION AND

YEARS OF WAR AND OCCUPATION AND THREE PRESIDENTIAL

THREE PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATIONS INCLUDING THE

ADMINISTRATIONS INCLUDING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS CONSISTENTLY MISREPRESENTED THE

CONSISTENTLY MISREPRESENTED THE WAR'S PROGRESS TO THE AMERICAN

WAR'S PROGRESS TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, BUT THAT HAVING BEEN

PUBLIC, BUT THAT HAVING BEEN SAID, ANY MILITARY EXPERT CAN

SAID, ANY MILITARY EXPERT CAN TELL YOU UNILATERALLY DRAWING

TELL YOU UNILATERALLY DRAWING DOWN FORCES WHILE NEGOTIATING

DOWN FORCES WHILE NEGOTIATING WITH THE ENEMY IS PROBABLY NOT

WITH THE ENEMY IS PROBABLY NOT THE BEST SECURITY STRATEGY.

THE BEST SECURITY STRATEGY. IT'S NOT THE BEST WAY TO GET THE

IT'S NOT THE BEST WAY TO GET THE BEST SEAT AT THE NEGOTIATING

BEST SEAT AT THE NEGOTIATING TABLE.

TABLE. BUT THE PRESIDENT IS DETERMINED

BUT THE PRESIDENT IS DETERMINED TO GET OUT OF AFGHANISTAN AND HE

TO GET OUT OF AFGHANISTAN AND HE SAID THAT THE TALIBAN IS EAGER

SAID THAT THE TALIBAN IS EAGER TO AGREE TO A CEASE-FIRE.

TO AGREE TO A CEASE-FIRE. TALIBAN REPRESENTATIVES HAVE

TALIBAN REPRESENTATIVES HAVE TOLD NBC NEWS THEY'RE INTERESTED

TOLD NBC NEWS THEY'RE INTERESTED IN SIGNING A PEACE DEAL, WHICH

IN SIGNING A PEACE DEAL, WHICH IS DIFFERENT, AND THE QUESTION

IS DIFFERENT, AND THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE U.S. CAN GET THEM

IS WHETHER THE U.S. CAN GET THEM TO AGREE TO SOME KIND OF

TO AGREE TO SOME KIND OF CEASE-FIRING.

CEASE-FIRING. TO STOP FIGHTING DURING THESE

TO STOP FIGHTING DURING THESE NEGOTIATIONS.

NEGOTIATIONS. HERE'S MY COLLEAGUE, ALI AROUZI,

HERE'S MY COLLEAGUE, ALI AROUZI, INTERVIEWING A TALIBAN

INTERVIEWING A TALIBAN REPRESENTATIVE IN DOHA, IN

REPRESENTATIVE IN DOHA, IN QATAR.

QATAR. >> DOES IT COME TO A SURPRISE TO

>> DOES IT COME TO A SURPRISE TO YOU THAT THE U.S. ARE GOING TO

YOU THAT THE U.S. ARE GOING TO PULL OUT 4,000 TROOPS FROM

PULL OUT 4,000 TROOPS FROM AFGHANISTAN?

AFGHANISTAN? >> NOT SURPRISED, BUT I THINK

>> NOT SURPRISED, BUT I THINK IT'S ALREADY ON THE TABLE, A

IT'S ALREADY ON THE TABLE, A STEP WHICH WILL CREATE A

STEP WHICH WILL CREATE A NEGOTIATION --

NEGOTIATION -- >> Reporter: SO YOU KNEW ABOUT

>> Reporter: SO YOU KNEW ABOUT THIS.

THIS. >> I KNEW FROM THE MEDIA

>> I KNEW FROM THE MEDIA REPORTS.

REPORTS. >> Reporter: SO, OF COURSE, THE

>> Reporter: SO, OF COURSE, THE U.S. PRESIDENT HAS MADE THESE

U.S. PRESIDENT HAS MADE THESE DECISIONS IN THE PAST SO WHILE

DECISIONS IN THE PAST SO WHILE THE STAKES ARE HIGH, INCREDIBLY

THE STAKES ARE HIGH, INCREDIBLY HIGH, WE'RE ALSO JUST GOING TO