that the Earth is a roughly spherical planet

而地球大概是一個球形的行星，

that rotates on its axis every 24 hours

每 24 小時繞著自轉軸轉一圈

and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days.

每 365 天繞太陽一圈。

You believe that you were born on a particular date,

你相信你在某一個特別的日子，

that you were born to two human parents

由身為父母的人類生下你，

and that each of your human parents

而他們兩位

was born on an earlier date.

的出生日期在你之前。

You believe that other human beings

你相信其它人類

have thoughts and feelings like you do

有和你類似的思想與感覺，

and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots.

環繞你身邊的不是擬人機器人。

You believe all of these things and many more,

你相信這些以及其他事

not on the basis of direct observation,

並不是藉由直接觀察，

which can't, by itself, tell you very much

因為有關太陽和地球

about the relative size and motion

的相對大小以及相對運動，

of the Sun and the Earth,

觀察所能告訴你的有限。

or about your own family history,

你的家族史和別人的思想狀態，

or about what goes on in the minds of other humans.

也是一樣。

Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on

其實你的信任是以

what you've been told.

道聽塗說為基礎。

Without spoken and written testimonies,

若沒有言語或紀錄的見證，

human beings could not pass on knowledge

人類沒辦法在人與人之間

from one person to another,

傳遞知識，

let alone from one generation to another.

更不用說 世代與世代之間。

We would know much, much less

我們對於我們的世界

about the world around us.

將會知道得非常少。

So learning about a topic

所以藉由詢問一位專家

by asking an expert on that topic,

或是相信權威

or appealing to authority,

來學習一個主題

helps us gain knowledge,

可以幫助我們增長知識，

but, it doesn't always.

然而，這也不盡然如此。

Even the most highly respected authorities

即使是最德高望重的權威

can turn out to be wrong.

也有可能出錯。

Occasionally this happens

這偶爾會發生，

because a highly respected authority is dishonest

因為德高望重的權威可能說謊，

and claims to know something

並聲稱他知道某件

that she or he really doesn't know.

他明明不知道的事。

Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake.

有時候僅僅是因為他們犯錯了。

They think they know when they don't know.

他們認為他們知道 但事實卻不是這樣。

For example, a number of respected economists

舉例來說，許多知名的經濟學家

did not expect the financial collapse of 2008.

並沒有預測到 2008 年的金融海嘯。

They turned out to be wrong.

他們錯了。

Maybe they were wrong

這錯誤可能源自

because they were overlooking some important evidence.

他們忽略了一些重要的證據。

Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting

也可能源自

some of the evidence they had noticed.

他們對證據的錯誤解讀。

Or maybe they were wrong

又或者

simply because they were reasoning carelessly

單單只是因為 他們從完整的證據

from the total body of their evidence.

做出草率的推論。

But whatever the reason,

但不管理由是什麼，

they turned out to be wrong

他們就是錯了

and many people who trusted their authority

而且許多相信他們的人

ended up losing lots of money,

最後損失了許多錢，

losing lots of other people's money,

也損失許多其它人的錢，

on account of that misplaced trust.

都因為錯誤的信任。

So while appealing to authority

所以當相信權威可以

can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge,

提供我們有用的知識的同時，

it also can sometimes be the cause

它也有可能造成

of monumental errors.

嚴重的錯誤。

It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish

我們每個人都應該有能力分辦

those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority

在甚麼情況下我們可以合理地相信權威

from those occasions on which we can't.

那些情況下卻不行。

But how do we do that?

但我們如何分辨呢？

In order to do that,

在這個狀況下，

nothing is more useful than

沒有什麼比

an authority's track record on a particular topic.

權威在某專業的歷史紀錄 更為重要了。

If someone turns out to perform well

如果某人在某一情況下

in a given situation much of the time,

總是表現得很好，

then it's likely that he or she will continue

那麼他就很可能

to perform well in that same situation,

在同一情況下 一樣表現得不錯，

at least in the near term.

至少就短期來說是如此。

And this generalization holds true

而這個推論對

of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else.

不同領域、不同權威的說法 也是對的。

If someone can consistently pick winners

如果有人持續地在

in both politics and baseball,

政治及棒球上 選對勝利者，

then we should probably trust him or her

那麼我們也許可以相信他

to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball,

會繼續在這兩樣上 預測正確，

though maybe not in other things

但紀錄不好的其它領域

where his or her track record may be less stellar.

我們可能就沒辦法如此推測。

If other forecasters have a poorer track record

如果其他預測員 在這兩方面

on those same two topics,

的紀錄更為不良，

then we shouldn't trust them as much.

那麼我們也不該那麼相信他。

So whenever you're considering whether

所以每一次你在決定

to trust the testimony of some authority,

要不要相信某權威時，

the first question to ask yourself is,

第一個要問自己的就是：

"What's their track record on this topic?"

「他在這專業上過去的紀錄如何？」

And notice that you can apply

值得注意的是 你可以將

the very same lesson to yourself.

這件事用在自己身上。

Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right,

你的直覺告訴你 你遇到了對的人

but what sort of track record do your instincts have

但是自己直覺在這方面的紀錄

on topics like this one?

是如何呢？

Have your instincts proven themselves

你的直覺有證明

to be worthy of your trust?

它們是值得相信的嗎？

Just as we judge other people's testimony

就像是我們 藉由紀錄

by their track record,

來判斷別人的說辭，

so, too, we can judge our own instincts

我們也可以用紀錄

by their track record.

來判斷自己的直覺。

And this brings us one step closer

而這讓我們更進一步了解

to an objective view of ourselves

對我們自己的客觀看法

and our relation to the world around us.

以及我們與宇宙共存的關係。