>> TODAY WE TAKE A MOMENTOUS STEP, ONE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN

STEP, ONE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN TAKEN BEFORE WITH CHINA TOWARD A

TAKEN BEFORE WITH CHINA TOWARD A FUTURE OF FAIR AND RECIPROCAL

FUTURE OF FAIR AND RECIPROCAL TRADE AS WE SIGN PHASE 1 OF THE

TRADE AS WE SIGN PHASE 1 OF THE HISTORIC TRADE DEAL BETWEEN THE

HISTORIC TRADE DEAL BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA.

UNITED STATES AND CHINA. TOGETHER WE ARE WRITING THE

TOGETHER WE ARE WRITING THE WRONGS OF THE PAST AND ECONOMIC

WRONGS OF THE PAST AND ECONOMIC JUSTICE AND SECURITY FOR

JUSTICE AND SECURITY FOR AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS AND

AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS AND FAMILIES.

FAMILIES. PAUL: PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING

PAUL: PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING PHASE 1 TRADE AGREEMENT WITH

PHASE 1 TRADE AGREEMENT WITH CHINA ON WEDNESDAY CALLING IT A

CHINA ON WEDNESDAY CALLING IT A VICTORY FOR AMERICAN WORKERS,

VICTORY FOR AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS AND FAMILIES, THE TRADE

FARMERS AND FAMILIES, THE TRADE TRUCE WITH BEIJING COMES AFTER

TRUCE WITH BEIJING COMES AFTER 2-YEAR TARIFF CAMPAIGN THAT

2-YEAR TARIFF CAMPAIGN THAT IMPOSED SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC

IMPOSED SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC COST ON BOTH COUNTRIES AND AS

COST ON BOTH COUNTRIES AND AS SENATE TOOK UP ANOTHER TRADE

SENATE TOOK UP ANOTHER TRADE AGREEMENT THURSDAY WITH A

AGREEMENT THURSDAY WITH A BIPARTISAN MAJORITY VOTE TO GO

BIPARTISAN MAJORITY VOTE TO GO SEND THE LONG-AWAITED USMCA TO

SEND THE LONG-AWAITED USMCA TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'S DESK TO

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S DESK TO SIGNING, JOHN MURPHY, SENIOR

SIGNING, JOHN MURPHY, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT FOR INTERNATIONAL

VICE PRESIDENT FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY, CHAMBER OF COMMERCE,

POLICY, CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, WELCOME BACK, JOHN, GOOD TO SEE

WELCOME BACK, JOHN, GOOD TO SEE YOU.

YOU. NOW THAT YOU'VE HAD A CHANCE TO

NOW THAT YOU'VE HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK AT THE DETAILS OF THIS

LOOK AT THE DETAILS OF THIS TRADE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE

TRADE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE FINALLY RELEASED THIS WEEK, HOW

FINALLY RELEASED THIS WEEK, HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THIS IN ITS

SIGNIFICANT IS THIS IN ITS POTENTIAL TO CHANGE CHINESE

POTENTIAL TO CHANGE CHINESE TRADING BEHAVIOR?

TRADING BEHAVIOR? >> WE THINK IT'S A SIGNIFICANT

>> WE THINK IT'S A SIGNIFICANT STEP FORWARD, FIRST OF ALL,

STEP FORWARD, FIRST OF ALL, BECAUSE IT IS GOING TO BRING

BECAUSE IT IS GOING TO BRING BACK A GREATER MEASURE OF

BACK A GREATER MEASURE OF CERTAINTY TO U.S. ECONOMIC

CERTAINTY TO U.S. ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND

RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND CERTAINTY ABOUT THE TARIFF

CERTAINTY ABOUT THE TARIFF INVOLVEMENT, AS RECENTLY AS A

INVOLVEMENT, AS RECENTLY AS A MONTH AGO WE WERE LOOKING AT THE

MONTH AGO WE WERE LOOKING AT THE PROSPECT OF TARIFFS BEING

PROSPECT OF TARIFFS BEING EXTENDED $100 BILLION PLUS OF

EXTENDED $100 BILLION PLUS OF CONSUMER GOODS WE IMPORT FROM

CONSUMER GOODS WE IMPORT FROM CHINA, IT'S GOOD TO SEE THAT WE

CHINA, IT'S GOOD TO SEE THAT WE ARE NOT EXPANDING THE TRADE WAR.

ARE NOT EXPANDING THE TRADE WAR. AS WE'VE GONE THROUGH SOME OF

AS WE'VE GONE THROUGH SOME OF THE REFORMS THAT ARE IN THE

THE REFORMS THAT ARE IN THE AGREEMENT, WE ARE PLEASED TO SEE

AGREEMENT, WE ARE PLEASED TO SEE SOME THAT WE THINK ARE

SOME THAT WE THINK ARE MEANINGFUL, FOR INSTANCE, NEW

MEANINGFUL, FOR INSTANCE, NEW PROTECTIONS FOR INTELLECTUAL

PROTECTIONS FOR INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, OPENING UP OF THE

PROPERTY, OPENING UP OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICE'S MARKET, THE

FINANCIAL SERVICE'S MARKET, THE CHALLENGE TO SEE HOW THESE ARE

CHALLENGE TO SEE HOW THESE ARE IMPLEMENTED IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.

IMPLEMENTED IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. PAUL: YEAH, THAT'S THE BIG POINT

PAUL: YEAH, THAT'S THE BIG POINT HERE, I'VE BEEN AT THIS FOR A

HERE, I'VE BEEN AT THIS FOR A LONG TIME AND, I MEAN, I DON'T

LONG TIME AND, I MEAN, I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY -- WAS IT 2 YEARS

KNOW HOW MANY -- WAS IT 2 YEARS AGO OR 30 WHEN CHINA PROMISE

AGO OR 30 WHEN CHINA PROMISE TODAY OPEN UP THE FINANCIAL

TODAY OPEN UP THE FINANCIAL SERVICE'S MARKET, SO IN A WAY

SERVICE'S MARKET, SO IN A WAY THE MOST INTERESTING THING ABOUT

THE MOST INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE DEAL IS THE CONSULTATION AND

THE DEAL IS THE CONSULTATION AND POTENTIAL ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM

POTENTIAL ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM THAT IS IF YOU'RE AN AMERICAN

THAT IS IF YOU'RE AN AMERICAN COMPANY IN CHINA AND YOU FEEL

COMPANY IN CHINA AND YOU FEEL THAT YOU'VE BEEN HARM AND

THAT YOU'VE BEEN HARM AND INSTEAD OF GOING TO REGULATOR

INSTEAD OF GOING TO REGULATOR YOU CAN GO TO U.S. TRADE

YOU CAN GO TO U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE AND THAT WILL

REPRESENTATIVE AND THAT WILL TRIGGER A BILATERAL PROCESS OF

TRIGGER A BILATERAL PROCESS OF REVIEW, DO YOU AGREE?

REVIEW, DO YOU AGREE? >> ABSOLUTELY.

>> ABSOLUTELY. SOME OF THE COMMITMENTS HERE ARE

SOME OF THE COMMITMENTS HERE ARE FAMILIAR, WE'VE HEARD THEM IN

FAMILIAR, WE'VE HEARD THEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER IN BILATERAL

ONE FORM OR ANOTHER IN BILATERAL DIALOGUES FOR YEARS, EVEN

DIALOGUES FOR YEARS, EVEN DECADES BUT NOW MONTHLY MEETINGS

DECADES BUT NOW MONTHLY MEETINGS AT THE -- AT THE LEVEL OF LOWER

AT THE -- AT THE LEVEL OF LOWER OFFICIALS AND QUARTERLY AT THE

OFFICIALS AND QUARTERLY AT THE DEPUTY MINISTER LEVEL AND SO ON

DEPUTY MINISTER LEVEL AND SO ON UP TO CHAIN.

UP TO CHAIN. PAUL: RIGHT.

PAUL: RIGHT. >> ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, U.S. TRADE

>> ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE, HE REGARDS IT AS

REPRESENTATIVE, HE REGARDS IT AS JOB ONE HERE TO SEE THAT THE

JOB ONE HERE TO SEE THAT THE CHANGES TO THE CHINESE ECONOMY,

CHANGES TO THE CHINESE ECONOMY, THAT THE CHINESE I THINK FOR

THAT THE CHINESE I THINK FOR THEIR OWN INTEREST, FOR THEIR

THEIR OWN INTEREST, FOR THEIR OWN RATIONALE ARE COMMITTING TO,

OWN RATIONALE ARE COMMITTING TO, THAT THEY'RE ACTUALLY

THAT THEY'RE ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED.

IMPLEMENTED. >> I GUESS THE QUESTION THAT I

>> I GUESS THE QUESTION THAT I ALSO HAVE WAS IT WORTH THE 2

ALSO HAVE WAS IT WORTH THE 2 YEARS OF UNCERTAINTY AND TARIFF

YEARS OF UNCERTAINTY AND TARIFF IMPOSITION, SOME SOME OF THE TAR

IMPOSITION, SOME SOME OF THE TAR ARE STILL GOING TO BE ON, WAS IT

ARE STILL GOING TO BE ON, WAS IT WORTH THE PRICE ECONOMICALLY?

WORTH THE PRICE ECONOMICALLY? >> I THINK THAT THAT'S A

>> I THINK THAT THAT'S A DIFFICULT QUESTION TO ANSWER.

DIFFICULT QUESTION TO ANSWER. AS YOU SAY TARIFFS ON

AS YOU SAY TARIFFS ON $350 BILLION ON IMPORT FROM

$350 BILLION ON IMPORT FROM CHINA ARE STILL THERE, THE COST

CHINA ARE STILL THERE, THE COST HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL TO BOTH

HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL TO BOTH ECONOMIES, CHINA'S ECONOMY

ECONOMIES, CHINA'S ECONOMY GROWTH HAS SLOWED PRETTY

GROWTH HAS SLOWED PRETTY DRAMATICALLY AND FOR THE UNITED

DRAMATICALLY AND FOR THE UNITED STATES, WE JUST HAVE NEW NUMBERS

STATES, WE JUST HAVE NEW NUMBERS IN THAT IN 2019 THE U.S.

IN THAT IN 2019 THE U.S. MANUFACTURING SECTOR CONTRACTED

MANUFACTURING SECTOR CONTRACTED BY MORE THAN 1%.

BY MORE THAN 1%. AGRICULTURE HAS BEEN IN A

AGRICULTURE HAS BEEN IN A RECESSION, THAT'S THE PRICE AND

RECESSION, THAT'S THE PRICE AND LOOKING FORWARD, WE HAVE TO SEE

LOOKING FORWARD, WE HAVE TO SEE HOW THESE MEASURES ARE

HOW THESE MEASURES ARE IMPLEMENTED TO SEE, YOU KNOW,

IMPLEMENTED TO SEE, YOU KNOW, THAT WE ARE GOING TO GET PAYOFF

THAT WE ARE GOING TO GET PAYOFF FROM THAT.

FROM THAT. PAUL: WE SHOULD GET SOME AT

PAUL: WE SHOULD GET SOME AT LEAST NEAR TERM RELIEF GROWTH AS

LEAST NEAR TERM RELIEF GROWTH AS THAT UNCERTAINTY ADDS I WOULD

THAT UNCERTAINTY ADDS I WOULD ASSUME THIS YEAR AND THE ECONOMY

ASSUME THIS YEAR AND THE ECONOMY BOUNCING BACK A LITTLE BIT, IS

BOUNCING BACK A LITTLE BIT, IS THAT WHAT YOU ANTICIPATE?

THAT WHAT YOU ANTICIPATE? >> WE DO, THERE'S A NUMBER OF

>> WE DO, THERE'S A NUMBER OF REASONS THAT WE EXPECT THE

REASONS THAT WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO BE BOUNCING BACK, ONE

ECONOMY TO BE BOUNCING BACK, ONE OF THE DRAGS ON THE ECONOMY HAS

OF THE DRAGS ON THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS

BEEN BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS BEEN LOW AND THAT'S BEEN IN PART

BEEN LOW AND THAT'S BEEN IN PART BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT

BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TARIFFS, WE SEE THAT LIFTING UP

TARIFFS, WE SEE THAT LIFTING UP BECAUSE OF THE CHINA DEAL AND

BECAUSE OF THE CHINA DEAL AND ALSO BECAUSE OF USMCA.

ALSO BECAUSE OF USMCA. PAUL: YEAH, LET'S TALK ABOUT

PAUL: YEAH, LET'S TALK ABOUT USMCA BRIEFLY, NICE TO GET THAT

USMCA BRIEFLY, NICE TO GET THAT FINALLY DONE AND BEHIND US, SO I

FINALLY DONE AND BEHIND US, SO I GUESS YOU GUYS ARE PRETTY HAPPY

GUESS YOU GUYS ARE PRETTY HAPPY ABOUT THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE'S A

ABOUT THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE'S A MANAGED TRADE COMPONENT HERE AND

MANAGED TRADE COMPONENT HERE AND WAGED DICTATES FOR THE AUTO

WAGED DICTATES FOR THE AUTO INDUSTRY THAT GENERALLY BUSINESS

INDUSTRY THAT GENERALLY BUSINESS LIKE.

LIKE. NET ON NET, BIG IMPROVEMENT OR

NET ON NET, BIG IMPROVEMENT OR NOT?

NOT? >> SO FOR MOST BUSINESSES AND

>> SO FOR MOST BUSINESSES AND MOST SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY THE

MOST SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY THE REALLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT FREE

REALLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT FREE TRADE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS

TRADE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS GOING TO CONTINUE AS IT HAS FOR

GOING TO CONTINUE AS IT HAS FOR 2 YEARS.

2 YEARS. WE HAVE EXCELLENT MARKET ACCESS

WE HAVE EXCELLENT MARKET ACCESS AND WE HAVE SOME MODERNIZED

AND WE HAVE SOME MODERNIZED TRADE RULES LIKE DIGITAL TRADE,

TRADE RULES LIKE DIGITAL TRADE, OTHER MEASURES TO COMBAT BEHIND

OTHER MEASURES TO COMBAT BEHIND THE BORDER KINDS OF

THE BORDER KINDS OF PROTECTIONISM, YOU MENTIONED

PROTECTIONISM, YOU MENTIONED WITH REGARD TO THE COMPLICATED

WITH REGARD TO THE COMPLICATED RULES THAT ARE GOING TO RAISE

RULES THAT ARE GOING TO RAISE COSTS FOR THE AUTO INDUSTRY,

COSTS FOR THE AUTO INDUSTRY, NOW, RAISING COSTS FOR AN

NOW, RAISING COSTS FOR AN INDUSTRY ISN'T USUALLY A GOOD

INDUSTRY ISN'T USUALLY A GOOD WAY TO MAKE MORE GLOBALLY

WAY TO MAKE MORE GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE.

COMPETITIVE. PAUL: RIGHT.

PAUL: RIGHT. >> MOST COMPANIES ARE INDICATING

>> MOST COMPANIES ARE INDICATING THAT THEY THINK THEY CAN

THAT THEY THINK THEY CAN IMPLEMENT WITHOUT TOO MUCH COST

IMPLEMENT WITHOUT TOO MUCH COST BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS

BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AS WE GO THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION

AS WE GO THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION PHASE, THE QUESTION HOW

PHASE, THE QUESTION HOW REGULATIONS IMPLEMENTING WILL BE

REGULATIONS IMPLEMENTING WILL BE FRAMED AND WILL BE ON THAT AS

FRAMED AND WILL BE ON THAT AS WELL.

WELL. PAUL: BRIEFLY, JOHN, DO YOU SEE

PAUL: BRIEFLY, JOHN, DO YOU SEE THIS BASICALLY BEING TRADE FOR

THIS BASICALLY BEING TRADE FOR THE NEXT YEAR UNTIL WE GET

THE NEXT YEAR UNTIL WE GET THROUGH THE ELECTION?

THROUGH THE ELECTION? >> I THINK IT'LL BE CALMER,

>> I THINK IT'LL BE CALMER, CERTAINLY, AND THERE'S SOMETHING

CERTAINLY, AND THERE'S SOMETHING OF A SIGH OF RELIEF GOING UP AND

OF A SIGH OF RELIEF GOING UP AND ALSO THE THREAT TO IMPOSE AUTO

ALSO THE THREAT TO IMPOSE AUTO TARIFFS SEEM TO HAVE EXPIRED AS

TARIFFS SEEM TO HAVE EXPIRED AS THE ADMINISTRATION PASSED THE

THE ADMINISTRATION PASSED THE DEADLINE, SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR

DEADLINE, SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CHANCE TO CONSOLIDATE THE

A CHANCE TO CONSOLIDATE THE GAINS WHERE THEY EXIST AND MOVE

GAINS WHERE THEY EXIST AND MOVE FORWARD IN THE YEAR AHEAD.