suit the style of the club we’re discussing. If you’re unfamiliar with the rules or methodology,

you can watch our Sensible Transfers Rules video as linked below. Today’s club is Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta has only just taken over at Arsenal in real terms – he’s played four games

at the time of writing this video, overseeing wins against Manchester United and Leeds United,

drawing against Bournemouth, and losing to Chelsea. That makes it tough to say much about

how Arteta might want to set Arsenal up tactically. We can infer two main things from his matches

in charge so far: he likes a 4-2-3-1, and he likes to push the left back higher and

tuck the right back inside to make a third defensive midfielder, an inverted full back

if you like.

He’s likely to favour a possession-based approach with fluid positional interchange

between players, but Arsenal are a bit of a mess at the moment and it will take time

for him to show his real coaching philosophy.

So where do Arsenal need to strengthen? Probably not up front, where Alexandre Lacazette and

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are both good players, even if fitting them in together is tricky.

Nicolas Pepe has looked good in bursts, while Gabriel Martinelli is an exciting prospect.

In attacking central midfield, Arsenal have Mesut Ozil and a number of prospects who should

all get a chance to impress, should Arteta keep the 4-2-3-1. Full back is a tricky area,

because Kieran Tierney is a good prospect who has had injury issues, while Saed Kolasinac

is offensively good but defensively shaky. On the other flank, Hector Bellerin has again

barely featured because of injury, while Ashley Maitland-Niles is probably a stop-gap but

Arteta’s inverted full-back move on the right could suit him. We’ve therefore identified

defensive central midfield and centre back as the most pressing areas of concern.

We’ve looked for players 27 or under who have racked up more than 700 minutes, so that

there’s a reasonable data set and each player is either entering their peak or is still

a prospect. It’s always trickier mid-season so we’ve adjusted minutes played down from

our summer benchmark. These players could be useful pick-ups for January, but they should

also be considered longer term options – Arsenal are in a building cycle, again, so that should

be factored in.

Arsenal don’t want a purely destructive midfielder, especially if Arteta persists

with the 4-2-3-1: both axes in a double pivot need to be able to do something with the ball,

especially against good pressing teams who can tie up the more creative passer. There’s

actually a good argument given Arsenal’s midfield options to deploy a 4-3-3, flanking

a destroyer with Matteo Guendouzi and Lucas Torreira, but so far Arteta seems to prefer

using Mesut Ozil as a ten.

So we’ve looked for midfielders who show up defensively well, but are able to use the

ball too. That’s why some good defensive midfielders in the Premier League like Philip

Billing, Marvellous Nakamba, and Tom Trybull have been discounted – they don’t currently

show enough with the ball.

We looked at a few other options, all of whom could do a good job but with caveats: Torino’s

Daniele Baselli (at the top end of our age bracket at 27), Hoffenheim’s Florian Grillitsch

and RB Leipzig’s Konrad Laimer (both potentially expensive and more likely to move to a Bundesliga

side). In the end, though, two players stood out.

A raw, but nonetheless persuasive option, is Le Harve’s Pape Gueye. He’s only 20,

6ft2 in height, and has huge potential. In terms of passing, for Ligue 2 players under

28, he’s eight for through passes with 1.5 per 90, fourth for passes to the final third

with 11.1 per 90, and 25th for progressive passes, with 9.4 per 90 – those above him

are mostly defenders who tend to rack up better progressive passing numbers. Defensively,

he manages 6.6 interceptions per 90 adjusted for opposition possession, 6.9 defensive duels

per 90, and he’s second for percentage of aerial duels won among the Ligue 2 midfielders

we considered. The numbers only tell some of the story though – watching Gueye, it’s

clear that he has huge talent. He’s always looking to progress the ball, turns with it

well, has the skill and strength to shield it, and can pass well with both feet. He’s

dynamic and has an intelligent range of passing. Under the experienced coach Paul Le Guen,

who won Ligue 1 three times with Lyon, Gueye is developing well and should become a genuinely

dominant midfielder for a Premier League side to build around.

Our choice, though, is Toulouse’s Ibrahim Sangare, who is 22 and 6ft3. He’s made 11.1

final third passes per 90, 7th of all the midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues

considered by age and minutes played. He’s also made 2.2 passes to the penalty area per

90 and 1.5 through passes per 90. Defensively, he’s winning 8.2 duels per 90, which puts

him 27th of the top five midfielders we looked at, but combining this with creativity, he’s

outperforming the rest of that group with the exception of Marco Verratti and Joshua

Kimmich, both different kinds of players in very dominant sides. Even for deep completed

passes he’s up there – on that list sorted by defensive ability, only Casemiro, Verratti,

Konrad Laimer, Florian Grillistch, and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (who would also be an interesting

signing for Arsenal) manage to find their teammates in dangerous areas more.

Sangare is very quick and covers defend his left back well, which would be useful in Arteta’s

set-up. He looks slightly less comfortable on the ball than Gueye, but he’s a more

dynamic defender, has more experience at a higher level, and is closer to being the finished

article. But that’s why he’d cost significantly more.

It’s a rather boring assertion by now, but Arsenal still need a centre-back. At least

one, possibly two. Of course, William Saliba is on loan at St Etienne, where he was purchased

from, but he’s not been a regular by any means due to his injury issues. In the four

league games he’s played the full match, St Etienne managed three wins and one draw,

and three clean sheets. Saliba has played on the right of a three man back line, impressing

with his positioning and defensive abilities. But, a loan spell that was supposed to continue

his development has been frustratingly hampered by those injuries, so it’s very hard to

say if he’s going to be the kind of dominant defensive presence Arsenal need next season.

He’s certainly an excellent prospect, though, and Arsenal should be pleased to have secured

his services.

The good young centre-backs in Europe, players like Dayot Upamecano, Nico Elvedi, Felix Uduokhai

and Sebastian Posch, who we recommended for Arsenal last season, should still all be under

consideration, especially Posch – though Upamecano is likely out of Arsenal’s price

range. There are other intriguing prospects: 22 year old Keven Schlotterbeck has only managed

just over 700 minutes for a surprisingly successful Union Berlin side but looks like an accomplished

defender, albeit with a bad disciplinary record, with one red and three yellows in that limited

sample of minutes. Another St Etienne product, 19 year old Wesley Fofana, has similarly limited

game time, but is making 10.4 successful defensive duels per 90 and winning 70% of his seven

aerial duels per 90. But Arsenal need someone more experienced, ideally in the 24-27 age

range, who can challenge Sokratis and David Luiz (or just replace them), defensively solid,

especially aerially, and with a decent range of passing.

Alexander Djiku of RC Strasbourg is an intriguing possibility. He’s played as a defensive

midfielder, as well as a centre back in both a back four and back three, as well, so he’s

versatile. Six foot tall, left-footed, and 25 years old, Djiku is part of an RC Strasbourg

side punching above their weight under coach Thierry Laurey. Djiku makes just under nine

successful defensive duels per 90 and wins 68% of his 4.4 aerial duels per 90. His interceptions

numbers are relatively low but RC are a league average pressing side and Djiku is able to

adjust and be more aggressive as a defensive midfielder, so he would likely be able to

play in a more front-foot defending side if required. He’s not the most adventurous

passer, high in volume but low in progressions, but RC’s defence are conservative passers

generally, preferring to give the ball to the keeper Matz Sels or midfielder Dimitri

Lienard to hit long. Djiku is one of three RC Salsbourg players we really like, along

with 22 year old full back Anthony Caci and Mohamed Simakin, a 19 year old centre-back

– Arsenal might do well to acquire several of them!

Our pick, however, is 27 year old Austrian Martin Hinteregger of Eintracht Frankfurt.

He’s 6ft tall, quick enough, and possesses a good all-round game, with six league goals

and one assist to go with his 8.4 successful defensive duels per 90 and 4.9 aerial duels

won at 61%. He’s a front foot defender, in line with Eintracht’s high tempo, aggressive

style, making 7.5 interceptions per 90; this approach does mean he gets caught out sometimes,

and Eintracht can look flimsy out wide so as a left-sided centre back in a three he’s

constantly being drawn that way. However, in a more disciplined back four, these issues

should be smoothed out. He’s not afraid to carry the ball, making 1.8 dribbles per

90 at a success rate of 45%, and he also makes 8.1 final third passes, 1.4 passes to the

penalty area, and 11.6 progressive passes, all per 90. From an all-round perspective,

then, he ticks a number of boxes – experienced, old enough to lead a defence without being

past his peak, defensively strong and capable of moving the ball forwards well, and chipping

in with goals. He’s not a glamour signing, but then Arsenal need solidity over sparkle

at the back, and Hinteregger would be an upgrade on their existing options and bring a variety

of skills to the side.

And here’s how our team would line up, showing several options: