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  • THOUGH

  • THOUGH

  • THOUGH IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY

  • THOUGH IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY

  • THOUGH IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS

  • IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS

  • IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED,

  • LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED,

  • LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH

  • THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH

  • THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH INFLATION NEAR TARGET.

  • OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH INFLATION NEAR TARGET.

  • OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH INFLATION NEAR TARGET. MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S

  • INFLATION NEAR TARGET. MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S

  • INFLATION NEAR TARGET. MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW

  • MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW

  • MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN

  • DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN

  • DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT

  • PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT

  • PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT BE

  • IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT BE

  • IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT BE THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A

  • BE THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A

  • BE THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3%

  • THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3%

  • THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A

  • REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A

  • REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT.

  • IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT.

  • IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE

  • PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE

  • PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE

  • SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE

  • SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER

  • VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER

  • VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL

  • 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL

  • 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED.

  • PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED.

  • PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP

  • DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP

  • DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS

  • IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS

  • IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS REASSURING.

  • IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS REASSURING.

  • IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS REASSURING. ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE

  • REASSURING. ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE

  • REASSURING. ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME

  • ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME

  • ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED

  • INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED

  • INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED BY TEMPORARY FACTORS.

  • GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED BY TEMPORARY FACTORS.

  • GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON

  • BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON

  • BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS

  • THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS

  • THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS AND STRIKES.

  • THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS AND STRIKES.

  • THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS AND STRIKES. A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT

  • AND STRIKES. A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT

  • AND STRIKES. A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS

  • A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS

  • A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE

  • IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE

  • IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES

  • INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES

  • INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST

  • UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST

  • UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE

  • WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE

  • WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN

  • HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN

  • HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA.

  • ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA.

  • ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA. COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE

  • RETAIL SALES DATA. COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE

  • RETAIL SALES DATA. COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN

  • COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN

  • COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE

  • THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE

  • THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE CAUTIOUS.

  • CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE CAUTIOUS.

  • CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE CAUTIOUS. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL

  • CAUTIOUS. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL

  • CAUTIOUS. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR

  • PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR

  • PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR

  • POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR

  • POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING

  • ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING

  • ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE

  • LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE

  • LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE IN CERTAIN PROVINCES.

  • SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE IN CERTAIN PROVINCES.

  • SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS

  • IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS

  • IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER

  • NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER

  • NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE

  • REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE

  • REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE FOURTH.

  • CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE FOURTH.

  • CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE FOURTH. HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE

  • FOURTH. HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE

  • FOURTH. HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT

  • HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT

  • HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH.

  • HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH.

  • HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT

  • CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT

  • CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER

  • SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER

  • SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SLOWDOWN.

  • TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SLOWDOWN.

  • TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SLOWDOWN. THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST.

  • SLOWDOWN. THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST.

  • SLOWDOWN. THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE

  • THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE

  • THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE

  • BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE

  • BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE RISK IN MIND.

  • DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE RISK IN MIND.

  • DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE RISK IN MIND. IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY

  • RISK IN MIND. IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY

  • RISK IN MIND. IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER

  • IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER

  • IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED

  • DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED

  • DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SOME TIME IN DECEMBER.

  • CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SOME TIME IN DECEMBER.

  • CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN

  • SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN

  • SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY,

  • ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY,

  • ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS

  • MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS

  • MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN

  • EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN

  • EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN 2019.

  • QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN 2019.

  • QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN 2019. IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED

  • 2019. IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED

  • 2019. IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS

  • IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS

  • IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE

  • WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE

  • WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO

  • COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO

  • COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES.

  • SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES.

  • SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT

  • LOWER INTEREST RATES. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT

  • LOWER INTEREST RATES. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT.

  • AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT.

  • AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT. GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED

  • THEY WERE NOT. GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED

  • THEY WERE NOT. GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING

  • GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING

  • GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING INCREASED FINANCIAL

  • AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING INCREASED FINANCIAL

  • INCREASED FINANCIAL

  • INCREASED FINANCIAL VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN

  • VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN

  • VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE

  • VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE

  • VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE OF

  • EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE OF

  • EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE OF CANADA, AS EXPECTED, BUT AT THE

  • RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE OF CANADA, AS EXPECTED, BUT AT THE

  • RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE OF CANADA, AS EXPECTED, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, A CRYSTALLIZATION OF

  • CANADA, AS EXPECTED, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, A CRYSTALLIZATION OF

  • CANADA, AS EXPECTED, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, A CRYSTALLIZATION OF SOME DOMESTIC DOWN SIDE RISKS.

  • SAME TIME, A CRYSTALLIZATION OF SOME DOMESTIC DOWN SIDE RISKS.

  • SAME TIME, A CRYSTALLIZATION OF SOME DOMESTIC DOWN SIDE RISKS. AFTER TAKING THESE DEVELOPMENTS

  • SOME DOMESTIC DOWN SIDE RISKS. AFTER TAKING THESE DEVELOPMENTS

  • SOME DOMESTIC DOWN SIDE RISKS. AFTER TAKING THESE DEVELOPMENTS ON BOARD, OUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED

  • AFTER TAKING THESE DEVELOPMENTS ON BOARD, OUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED

  • AFTER TAKING THESE DEVELOPMENTS ON BOARD, OUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT OVERALL EXCESS CAPACITY IN

  • ON BOARD, OUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT OVERALL EXCESS CAPACITY IN

  • ON BOARD, OUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT OVERALL EXCESS CAPACITY IN THE CANADIAN ECONOMYD.

  • THAT OVERALL EXCESS CAPACITY IN THE CANADIAN ECONOMYD.

  • THAT OVERALL EXCESS CAPACITY IN THE CANADIAN ECONOMYD. WHICH WILL BRING A DEGREE OF

  • THE CANADIAN ECONOMYD. WHICH WILL BRING A DEGREE OF

  • THE CANADIAN ECONOMYD. WHICH WILL BRING A DEGREE OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION

  • WHICH WILL BRING A DEGREE OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION

  • WHICH WILL BRING A DEGREE OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON.

  • DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON.

  • DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN CHART 15 OF

  • OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN CHART 15 OF

  • OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN CHART 15 OF THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT.

  • YOU CAN SEE THIS IN CHART 15 OF THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT.

  • YOU CAN SEE THIS IN CHART 15 OF THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT. LET ME MAKE TWO COMMENTS RELATED

  • THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT. LET ME MAKE TWO COMMENTS RELATED

  • THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT. LET ME MAKE TWO COMMENTS RELATED TO THIS: THE FIRST, WE BELIEVE

  • LET ME MAKE TWO COMMENTS RELATED TO THIS: THE FIRST, WE BELIEVE

  • LET ME MAKE TWO COMMENTS RELATED TO THIS: THE FIRST, WE BELIEVE THAT THE EXCESS CAPACITY IS NOT

  • TO THIS: THE FIRST, WE BELIEVE THAT THE EXCESS CAPACITY IS NOT

  • TO THIS: THE FIRST, WE BELIEVE THAT THE EXCESS CAPACITY IS NOT UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, BUT IT IS

  • THAT THE EXCESS CAPACITY IS NOT UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, BUT IT IS

  • THAT THE EXCESS CAPACITY IS NOT UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, BUT IT IS CONCENTRATED ON THE PRAIRIES AND

  • UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, BUT IT IS CONCENTRATED ON THE PRAIRIES AND

  • UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, BUT IT IS CONCENTRATED ON THE PRAIRIES AND IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.

  • CONCENTRATED ON THE PRAIRIES AND IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.

  • CONCENTRATED ON THE PRAIRIES AND IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR. SECOND, OUR ESTIMATE OF THE

  • IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR. SECOND, OUR ESTIMATE OF THE

  • IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR. SECOND, OUR ESTIMATE OF THE OUTPUT GAP IS BASED ON A

  • SECOND, OUR ESTIMATE OF THE OUTPUT GAP IS BASED ON A

  • SECOND, OUR ESTIMATE OF THE OUTPUT GAP IS BASED ON A PARTIALLY UPDATED ESTIMATE OF

  • OUTPUT GAP IS BASED ON A PARTIALLY UPDATED ESTIMATE OF

  • OUTPUT GAP IS BASED ON A PARTIALLY UPDATED ESTIMATE OF THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL.

  • PARTIALLY UPDATED ESTIMATE OF THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL.

  • PARTIALLY UPDATED ESTIMATE OF THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL. SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE

  • THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL. SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE

  • THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL. SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE CURRENT

  • SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE CURRENT

  • SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE THAN USUAL.

  • UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE THAN USUAL.

  • UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE THAN USUAL. WE'LL HAVE A MORE FULLSOME

  • ESTIMATE THAN USUAL. WE'LL HAVE A MORE FULLSOME

  • ESTIMATE THAN USUAL. WE'LL HAVE A MORE FULLSOME UPDATE ON POTENTIAL IN THE APRIL

  • WE'LL HAVE A MORE FULLSOME UPDATE ON POTENTIAL IN THE APRIL

  • WE'LL HAVE A MORE FULLSOME UPDATE ON POTENTIAL IN THE APRIL MPR.

  • UPDATE ON POTENTIAL IN THE APRIL MPR.

  • UPDATE ON POTENTIAL IN THE APRIL MPR. AT THE SAME TIME, HOUSEHOLD

  • MPR. AT THE SAME TIME, HOUSEHOLD

  • MPR. AT THE SAME TIME, HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES REMAIN

  • AT THE SAME TIME, HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES REMAIN

  • AT THE SAME TIME, HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE

  • FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE

  • FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ANALYZING THE POSITIVE

  • ELEVATED ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ANALYZING THE POSITIVE

  • ELEVATED ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ANALYZING THE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS OF A HIGHER

  • ANALYZING THE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS OF A HIGHER

  • ANALYZING THE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS OF A HIGHER HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE FOR THOSE

  • IMPLICATIONS OF A HIGHER HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE FOR THOSE

  • IMPLICATIONS OF A HIGHER HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES.

  • HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES.

  • HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES. [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] BOTH

  • VULNERABILITIES. [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] BOTH

  • VULNERABILITIES. [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] BOTH THESE CONSIDERED, IT WAS

  • [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] BOTH THESE CONSIDERED, IT WAS

  • [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] BOTH THESE CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERNING COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT

  • THESE CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERNING COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT

  • THESE CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERNING COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT

  • GOVERNING COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT

  • GOVERNING COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT

  • THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT

  • THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT WE WEIGHED THE RISKS THAT

  • WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT WE WEIGHED THE RISKS THAT

  • WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT WE WEIGHED THE RISKS THAT INFLATION COULD FALL SHORT OF

  • WE WEIGHED THE RISKS THAT INFLATION COULD FALL SHORT OF

  • WE WEIGHED THE RISKS THAT INFLATION COULD FALL SHORT OF TARGET AGAINST THE RISK THAT A

  • INFLATION COULD FALL SHORT OF TARGET AGAINST THE RISK THAT A

  • INFLATION COULD FALL SHORT OF TARGET AGAINST THE RISK THAT A LOWER INTEREST RATES PASS WOULD

  • TARGET AGAINST THE RISK THAT A LOWER INTEREST RATES PASS WOULD

  • TARGET AGAINST THE RISK THAT A LOWER INTEREST RATES PASS WOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER FINANCIAL

  • LOWER INTEREST RATES PASS WOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER FINANCIAL

  • LOWER INTEREST RATES PASS WOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES WHICH WOULD MAKE

  • LEAD TO A HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES WHICH WOULD MAKE

  • LEAD TO A HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES WHICH WOULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN

  • VULNERABILITIES WHICH WOULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN

  • VULNERABILITIES WHICH WOULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER

  • IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER

  • IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.

  • THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.

  • THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE

  • DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE

  • DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS DATA EVOLVES.

  • CLEARLY THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS DATA EVOLVES.

  • CLEARLY THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNING

  • OVER TIME, AS DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNING

  • OVER TIME, AS DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNING COUNCIL WOULD BE WATCHING

  • IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNING COUNCIL WOULD BE WATCHING

  • IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNING COUNCIL WOULD BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT

  • COUNCIL WOULD BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT

  • COUNCIL WOULD BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE

  • CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE

  • CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST.

  • SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST.

  • SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA, THE

  • PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA, THE

  • PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA, THE BANK WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR

  • IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA, THE BANK WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR

  • IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA, THE BANK WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENT IN

  • BANK WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENT IN

  • BANK WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENT IN CONSUMER SPENDING, THE HOUSING

  • ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENT IN CONSUMER SPENDING, THE HOUSING

  • ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENT IN CONSUMER SPENDING, THE HOUSING MARKET AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT.

  • CONSUMER SPENDING, THE HOUSING MARKET AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT.

  • CONSUMER SPENDING, THE HOUSING MARKET AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. >> ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT WAS

  • MARKET AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. >> ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT WAS

  • MARKET AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. >> ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERN COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE

  • >> ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERN COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE

  • >> ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERN COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT

  • GOVERN COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT

  • GOVERN COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT.

  • BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT.

  • BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT. LOWER INTEREST RATES WOULD LEAD

  • LOWER INTEREST RATES AT. LOWER INTEREST RATES WOULD LEAD

  • LOWER INTEREST RATES AT. LOWER INTEREST RATES WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER FINANCIAL

  • LOWER INTEREST RATES WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER FINANCIAL

  • LOWER INTEREST RATES WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES, WHICH COULD

  • TO HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES, WHICH COULD

  • TO HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO

  • VULNERABILITIES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO

  • VULNERABILITIES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET

  • MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET

  • MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.

  • ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.

  • ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY, THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE

  • FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY, THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE

  • FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY, THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS THE DATA EVOLVES.

  • CLEARLY, THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS THE DATA EVOLVES.

  • CLEARLY, THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS THE DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, COUNCIL WILL BE

  • OVER TIME, AS THE DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, COUNCIL WILL BE

  • OVER TIME, AS THE DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, COUNCIL WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE

  • IN THIS REGARD, COUNCIL WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE

  • IN THIS REGARD, COUNCIL WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS

  • WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS

  • WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST

  • RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST

  • RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST AND IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA

  • MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST AND IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA

  • MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST AND IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA THE BANK IS PAYING PARTICULAR

  • AND IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA THE BANK IS PAYING PARTICULAR

  • AND IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA THE BANK IS PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN

  • THE BANK IS PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN

  • THE BANK IS PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN CONSUMER SPENDING AND HOUSING

  • ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN CONSUMER SPENDING AND HOUSING

  • ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN CONSUMER SPENDING AND HOUSING MARKETS AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT.

  • CONSUMER SPENDING AND HOUSING MARKETS AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT.

  • CONSUMER SPENDING AND HOUSING MARKETS AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. WITH THAT SENIOR DEPUTY GOVERNOR

  • MARKETS AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. WITH THAT SENIOR DEPUTY GOVERNOR

  • MARKETS AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. WITH THAT SENIOR DEPUTY GOVERNOR WILKINS AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO

  • WITH THAT SENIOR DEPUTY GOVERNOR WILKINS AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO

  • WITH THAT SENIOR DEPUTY GOVERNOR WILKINS AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS.

  • WILKINS AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS.

  • WILKINS AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS. >> THE FIRST QUESTION FROM KEVIN

  • TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS. >> THE FIRST QUESTION FROM KEVIN

  • TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS. >> THE FIRST QUESTION FROM KEVIN FOLLOWED BY GREG QUINN.

  • >> THE FIRST QUESTION FROM KEVIN FOLLOWED BY GREG QUINN.

  • >> THE FIRST QUESTION FROM KEVIN FOLLOWED BY GREG QUINN. >> Question: GOOD MORNING.

  • FOLLOWED BY GREG QUINN. >> Question: GOOD MORNING.

  • FOLLOWED BY GREG QUINN. >> Question: GOOD MORNING. YOU SAY THE POLICY STATEMENT

  • >> Question: GOOD MORNING. YOU SAY THE POLICY STATEMENT

  • >> Question: GOOD MORNING. YOU SAY THE POLICY STATEMENT THAT YOU'LL BE WATCHING FOR

  • YOU SAY THE POLICY STATEMENT THAT YOU'LL BE WATCHING FOR

  • YOU SAY THE POLICY STATEMENT THAT YOU'LL BE WATCHING FOR EVIDENCE ON WHETHER THE SLOWDOWN

  • THAT YOU'LL BE WATCHING FOR EVIDENCE ON WHETHER THE SLOWDOWN

  • THAT YOU'LL BE WATCHING FOR EVIDENCE ON WHETHER THE SLOWDOWN IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN

  • EVIDENCE ON WHETHER THE SLOWDOWN IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN

  • EVIDENCE ON WHETHER THE SLOWDOWN IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST.

  • IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST.

  • IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WHAT

  • FORECAST. CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WHAT

  • FORECAST. CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WHAT PERSISTENT LOOKS LIKE.

  • CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WHAT PERSISTENT LOOKS LIKE.

  • CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WHAT PERSISTENT LOOKS LIKE. >> SO PERSISTENCE WOULD BE

  • PERSISTENT LOOKS LIKE. >> SO PERSISTENCE WOULD BE

  • PERSISTENT LOOKS LIKE. >> SO PERSISTENCE WOULD BE MEASURED AGAINST ITS IMPACT ON

  • >> SO PERSISTENCE WOULD BE MEASURED AGAINST ITS IMPACT ON

  • >> SO PERSISTENCE WOULD BE MEASURED AGAINST ITS IMPACT ON THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION.

  • MEASURED AGAINST ITS IMPACT ON THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION.

  • MEASURED AGAINST ITS IMPACT ON THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. SO AS WE SHOW IN CHART 15 RIGHT

  • THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. SO AS WE SHOW IN CHART 15 RIGHT

  • THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. SO AS WE SHOW IN CHART 15 RIGHT NOW, YOU CAN SEE THE LITTLE BLUE

  • SO AS WE SHOW IN CHART 15 RIGHT NOW, YOU CAN SEE THE LITTLE BLUE

  • SO AS WE SHOW IN CHART 15 RIGHT NOW, YOU CAN SEE THE LITTLE BLUE BARS ARE A MEASURE OF WHAT WE

  • NOW, YOU CAN SEE THE LITTLE BLUE BARS ARE A MEASURE OF WHAT WE

  • NOW, YOU CAN SEE THE LITTLE BLUE BARS ARE A MEASURE OF WHAT WE BELIEVE TODAY THE GAP IS AND

  • BARS ARE A MEASURE OF WHAT WE BELIEVE TODAY THE GAP IS AND

  • BARS ARE A MEASURE OF WHAT WE BELIEVE TODAY THE GAP IS AND WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE OVER THE

  • BELIEVE TODAY THE GAP IS AND WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE OVER THE

  • BELIEVE TODAY THE GAP IS AND WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE OVER THE COURSE OF THE PROJECTION

  • WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE OVER THE COURSE OF THE PROJECTION

  • WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE OVER THE COURSE OF THE PROJECTION ARISING.

  • COURSE OF THE PROJECTION ARISING.

  • COURSE OF THE PROJECTION ARISING. AND THAT PUTS A LITTLE BIT OF

  • ARISING. AND THAT PUTS A LITTLE BIT OF

  • ARISING. AND THAT PUTS A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION.

  • AND THAT PUTS A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION.

  • AND THAT PUTS A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION. SO IF THE SLOWDOWN PROVED TO BE

  • DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION. SO IF THE SLOWDOWN PROVED TO BE

  • DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION. SO IF THE SLOWDOWN PROVED TO BE MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT WE

  • SO IF THE SLOWDOWN PROVED TO BE MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT WE

  • SO IF THE SLOWDOWN PROVED TO BE MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT WE DEALT IN THAT CASE, THEN THAT

  • MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT WE DEALT IN THAT CASE, THEN THAT

  • MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT WE DEALT IN THAT CASE, THEN THAT DOWNWARD PRESSURE WOULD BECOME

  • DEALT IN THAT CASE, THEN THAT DOWNWARD PRESSURE WOULD BECOME

  • DEALT IN THAT CASE, THEN THAT DOWNWARD PRESSURE WOULD BECOME LARGER AND IT IS THAT DOWN SIDE

  • DOWNWARD PRESSURE WOULD BECOME LARGER AND IT IS THAT DOWN SIDE

  • DOWNWARD PRESSURE WOULD BECOME LARGER AND IT IS THAT DOWN SIDE RISK THAT WE COMPARE OR MEASURE

  • LARGER AND IT IS THAT DOWN SIDE RISK THAT WE COMPARE OR MEASURE

  • LARGER AND IT IS THAT DOWN SIDE RISK THAT WE COMPARE OR MEASURE AGAINST THE RISKS OF OTHER RISKS

  • RISK THAT WE COMPARE OR MEASURE AGAINST THE RISKS OF OTHER RISKS

  • RISK THAT WE COMPARE OR MEASURE AGAINST THE RISKS OF OTHER RISKS THAT WE WOULD BE ADDING TO THE

  • AGAINST THE RISKS OF OTHER RISKS THAT WE WOULD BE ADDING TO THE

  • AGAINST THE RISKS OF OTHER RISKS THAT WE WOULD BE ADDING TO THE SYST

  • THAT WE WOULD BE ADDING TO THE SYST

  • THAT WE WOULD BE ADDING TO THE SYST BY LOWERING INTEREST RATES AND

  • SYST BY LOWERING INTEREST RATES AND

  • SYST BY LOWERING INTEREST RATES AND POTENTIALLY FUELLING FINANCIAL

  • BY LOWERING INTEREST RATES AND POTENTIALLY FUELLING FINANCIAL

  • BY LOWERING INTEREST RATES AND POTENTIALLY FUELLING FINANCIAL VU

  • POTENTIALLY FUELLING FINANCIAL VU

  • POTENTIALLY FUELLING FINANCIAL VU THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN A POSITION

  • VU THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN A POSITION

  • VU THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN A POSITION LATER WHERE A DOWNTURN IN THE

  • THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN A POSITION LATER WHERE A DOWNTURN IN THE

  • THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN A POSITION LATER WHERE A DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY CAN HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT

  • LATER WHERE A DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY CAN HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT

  • LATER WHERE A DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY CAN HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT AND MAKE IT HARD ER TO REACH

  • ECONOMY CAN HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT AND MAKE IT HARD ER TO REACH

  • ECONOMY CAN HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT AND MAKE IT HARD ER TO REACH YOUR TARGET.

  • AND MAKE IT HARD ER TO REACH YOUR TARGET.

  • AND MAKE IT HARD ER TO REACH YOUR TARGET. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE FIGURES

  • YOUR TARGET. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE FIGURES

  • YOUR TARGET. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE FIGURES INTO THAT CALCULUS.

  • THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE FIGURES INTO THAT CALCULUS.

  • THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE FIGURES INTO THAT CALCULUS. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE COULD

  • INTO THAT CALCULUS. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE COULD

  • INTO THAT CALCULUS. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE COULD HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR

  • THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE COULD HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR

  • THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE COULD HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES.

  • HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES.

  • HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES. THAT'S ANALYSIS THAT HAS TO BE

  • THOSE VULNERABILITIES. THAT'S ANALYSIS THAT HAS TO BE

  • THOSE VULNERABILITIES. THAT'S ANALYSIS THAT HAS TO BE DONE OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD.

  • THAT'S ANALYSIS THAT HAS TO BE DONE OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD.

  • THAT'S ANALYSIS THAT HAS TO BE DONE OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD. SO A COMPLICATED TRADEOFF BUT

  • DONE OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD. SO A COMPLICATED TRADEOFF BUT

  • DONE OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD. SO A COMPLICATED TRADEOFF BUT THAT'S THE GIST OF IT.

  • SO A COMPLICATED TRADEOFF BUT THAT'S THE GIST OF IT.

  • SO A COMPLICATED TRADEOFF BUT THAT'S THE GIST OF IT. >> Question: MY SECOND QUESTION

  • THAT'S THE GIST OF IT. >> Question: MY SECOND QUESTION

  • THAT'S THE GIST OF IT. >> Question: MY SECOND QUESTION IS WITH REGARDS TO THE FEDERAL

  • >> Question: MY SECOND QUESTION IS WITH REGARDS TO THE FEDERAL

  • >> Question: MY SECOND QUESTION IS WITH REGARDS TO THE FEDERAL INCOME TAX CUT.

  • IS WITH REGARDS TO THE FEDERAL INCOME TAX CUT.

  • IS WITH REGARDS TO THE FEDERAL INCOME TAX CUT. YOU SAID BACK IN THE FALL THAT

  • INCOME TAX CUT. YOU SAID BACK IN THE FALL THAT

  • INCOME TAX CUT. YOU SAID BACK IN THE FALL THAT THE STIMULUS -- FISCAL STIMULUS

  • YOU SAID BACK IN THE FALL THAT THE STIMULUS -- FISCAL STIMULUS

  • YOU SAID BACK IN THE FALL THAT THE STIMULUS -- FISCAL STIMULUS OF ABOUT $5 BILLION IS AS GOOD

  • THE STIMULUS -- FISCAL STIMULUS OF ABOUT $5 BILLION IS AS GOOD

  • THE STIMULUS -- FISCAL STIMULUS OF ABOUT $5 BILLION IS AS GOOD AS A RATE CUT ABOUT A QUARTER

  • OF ABOUT $5 BILLION IS AS GOOD AS A RATE CUT ABOUT A QUARTER

  • OF ABOUT $5 BILLION IS AS GOOD AS A RATE CUT ABOUT A QUARTER PERCENTAGE POINT.

  • AS A RATE CUT ABOUT A QUARTER PERCENTAGE POINT.

  • AS A RATE CUT ABOUT A QUARTER PERCENTAGE POINT. SHOULD WE EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT

  • PERCENTAGE POINT. SHOULD WE EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT

  • PERCENTAGE POINT. SHOULD WE EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT THAT THE TAX CUT IS IN THE WORKS

  • SHOULD WE EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT THAT THE TAX CUT IS IN THE WORKS

  • SHOULD WE EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT THAT THE TAX CUT IS IN THE WORKS IS AS GOOD AS A QUARTER POINT

  • THAT THE TAX CUT IS IN THE WORKS IS AS GOOD AS A QUARTER POINT

  • THAT THE TAX CUT IS IN THE WORKS IS AS GOOD AS A QUARTER POINT INTEREST RATE CUT?

  • IS AS GOOD AS A QUARTER POINT INTEREST RATE CUT?

  • IS AS GOOD AS A QUARTER POINT INTEREST RATE CUT? IS THE MATH AS SIMPLE AS THAT?

  • INTEREST RATE CUT? IS THE MATH AS SIMPLE AS THAT?

  • INTEREST RATE CUT? IS THE MATH AS SIMPLE AS THAT? >> I GAVE YOU THAT RULE OF THUMB

  • IS THE MATH AS SIMPLE AS THAT? >> I GAVE YOU THAT RULE OF THUMB

  • IS THE MATH AS SIMPLE AS THAT? >> I GAVE YOU THAT RULE OF THUMB AS A WAY TO KIND OF PUT A METRIC

  • >> I GAVE YOU THAT RULE OF THUMB AS A WAY TO KIND OF PUT A METRIC

  • >> I GAVE YOU THAT RULE OF THUMB AS A WAY TO KIND OF PUT A METRIC OUT THERE.

  • AS A WAY TO KIND OF PUT A METRIC OUT THERE.

  • AS A WAY TO KIND OF PUT A METRIC OUT THERE. SO IT ISN'T QUITE AS SIMPLE AS

  • OUT THERE. SO IT ISN'T QUITE AS SIMPLE AS

  • OUT THERE. SO IT ISN'T QUITE AS SIMPLE AS THAT.

  • SO IT ISN'T QUITE AS SIMPLE AS THAT.

  • SO IT ISN'T QUITE AS SIMPLE AS THAT. IN THE REAL WORLD, WHAT HAPPENS

  • THAT. IN THE REAL WORLD, WHAT HAPPENS

  • THAT. IN THE REAL WORLD, WHAT HAPPENS IS MANY ITEMS MIGHT CHANGE IN A

  • IN THE REAL WORLD, WHAT HAPPENS IS MANY ITEMS MIGHT CHANGE IN A

  • IN THE REAL WORLD, WHAT HAPPENS IS MANY ITEMS MIGHT CHANGE IN A BUDGET AND SO YOU PUT ALL THOSE

  • IS MANY ITEMS MIGHT CHANGE IN A BUDGET AND SO YOU PUT ALL THOSE

  • IS MANY ITEMS MIGHT CHANGE IN A BUDGET AND SO YOU PUT ALL THOSE FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS IN.

  • BUDGET AND SO YOU PUT ALL THOSE FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS IN.

  • BUDGET AND SO YOU PUT ALL THOSE FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS IN. THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL DO

  • FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS IN. THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL DO

  • FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS IN. THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL DO WHENEVER WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET.

  • THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL DO WHENEVER WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET.

  • THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL DO WHENEVER WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET. FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES

  • WHENEVER WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET. FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES

  • WHENEVER WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET. FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES THE IMMEDIATE TAX CUT THAT THE

  • FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES THE IMMEDIATE TAX CUT THAT THE

  • FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES THE IMMEDIATE TAX CUT THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT PUT INTO PLACE.

  • THE IMMEDIATE TAX CUT THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT PUT INTO PLACE.

  • THE IMMEDIATE TAX CUT THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT PUT INTO PLACE. THAT HAS A SMALLER EFFECT.

  • NEW GOVERNMENT PUT INTO PLACE. THAT HAS A SMALLER EFFECT.

  • NEW GOVERNMENT PUT INTO PLACE. THAT HAS A SMALLER EFFECT. CONSERVATIVERYLY ON THE ORDER OF

  • THAT HAS A SMALLER EFFECT. CONSERVATIVERYLY ON THE ORDER OF

  • THAT HAS A SMALLER EFFECT. CONSERVATIVERYLY ON THE ORDER OF .1 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON GROWTH.

  • CONSERVATIVERYLY ON THE ORDER OF .1 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON GROWTH.

  • CONSERVATIVERYLY ON THE ORDER OF .1 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON GROWTH. IT'S PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE

  • .1 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON GROWTH. IT'S PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE

  • .1 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON GROWTH. IT'S PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THAT.

  • IT'S PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THAT.

  • IT'S PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THAT. BUT I WON'T PUT A NUMBER AGAINST

  • THAN THAT. BUT I WON'T PUT A NUMBER AGAINST

  • THAN THAT. BUT I WON'T PUT A NUMBER AGAINST IT BECAUSE IT'S A TARGETED TAX

  • BUT I WON'T PUT A NUMBER AGAINST IT BECAUSE IT'S A TARGETED TAX

  • BUT I WON'T PUT A NUMBER AGAINST IT BECAUSE IT'S A TARGETED TAX CUT AS POE OPPOSED TO JUST A

  • IT BECAUSE IT'S A TARGETED TAX CUT AS POE OPPOSED TO JUST A

  • IT BECAUSE IT'S A TARGETED TAX CUT AS POE OPPOSED TO JUST A GENERAL FISCAL STIMULUS, AND

  • CUT AS POE OPPOSED TO JUST A GENERAL FISCAL STIMULUS, AND

  • CUT AS POE OPPOSED TO JUST A GENERAL FISCAL STIMULUS, AND TARGETED IN THE SENSE THAT IT'S

  • GENERAL FISCAL STIMULUS, AND TARGETED IN THE SENSE THAT IT'S

  • GENERAL FISCAL STIMULUS, AND TARGETED IN THE SENSE THAT IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECEIVE

  • TARGETED IN THE SENSE THAT IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECEIVE

  • TARGETED IN THE SENSE THAT IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECEIVE THE TAX CUT WILL ACTUALLY SPEND

  • MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECEIVE THE TAX CUT WILL ACTUALLY SPEND

  • MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECEIVE THE TAX CUT WILL ACTUALLY SPEND THE MONEY.

  • THE TAX CUT WILL ACTUALLY SPEND THE MONEY.

  • THE TAX CUT WILL ACTUALLY SPEND THE MONEY. SO THAT'S TO SAY IT COULD BE IN

  • THE MONEY. SO THAT'S TO SAY IT COULD BE IN

  • THE MONEY. SO THAT'S TO SAY IT COULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF, SAY, 10 TO 20

  • SO THAT'S TO SAY IT COULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF, SAY, 10 TO 20

  • SO THAT'S TO SAY IT COULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF, SAY, 10 TO 20 BASIS POINTS EQUIVALENTS, 10,

  • THE BALLPARK OF, SAY, 10 TO 20 BASIS POINTS EQUIVALENTS, 10,

  • THE BALLPARK OF, SAY, 10 TO 20 BASIS POINTS EQUIVALENTS, 10, 15, MIGHT BE A BETTER RANGE OF

  • BASIS POINTS EQUIVALENTS, 10, 15, MIGHT BE A BETTER RANGE OF

  • BASIS POINTS EQUIVALENTS, 10, 15, MIGHT BE A BETTER RANGE OF ESTIMATE SO WE'VE PUT IT IN AS

  • 15, MIGHT BE A BETTER RANGE OF ESTIMATE SO WE'VE PUT IT IN AS

  • 15, MIGHT BE A BETTER RANGE OF ESTIMATE SO WE'VE PUT IT IN AS .1, WHICH IS AROUND 10 BASIS

  • ESTIMATE SO WE'VE PUT IT IN AS .1, WHICH IS AROUND 10 BASIS

  • ESTIMATE SO WE'VE PUT IT IN AS .1, WHICH IS AROUND 10 BASIS POINTS

  • .1, WHICH IS AROUND 10 BASIS POINTS

  • .1, WHICH IS AROUND 10 BASIS POINTS SO THAT'S ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT

  • POINTS SO THAT'S ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT

  • POINTS SO THAT'S ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT THAT.

  • SO THAT'S ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT THAT.

  • SO THAT'S ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT THAT. THERE ARE OTHER THINGS MOVING IN

  • THAT. THERE ARE OTHER THINGS MOVING IN

  • THAT. THERE ARE OTHER THINGS MOVING IN THAT SPACE, RECONDUCTIONS AND

  • THERE ARE OTHER THINGS MOVING IN THAT SPACE, RECONDUCTIONS AND

  • THERE ARE OTHER THINGS MOVING IN THAT SPACE, RECONDUCTIONS AND THAT THE FISCAL LINE CONTINUES

  • THAT SPACE, RECONDUCTIONS AND THAT THE FISCAL LINE CONTINUES

  • THAT SPACE, RECONDUCTIONS AND THAT THE FISCAL LINE CONTINUES TO BE LIKE A CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP

  • THAT THE FISCAL LINE CONTINUES TO BE LIKE A CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP

  • THAT THE FISCAL LINE CONTINUES TO BE LIKE A CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP GROWTH IN OUR TABLES, SO THEY

  • TO BE LIKE A CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP GROWTH IN OUR TABLES, SO THEY

  • TO BE LIKE A CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP GROWTH IN OUR TABLES, SO THEY WILL TWO OR THREE, I FORGET

  • GROWTH IN OUR TABLES, SO THEY WILL TWO OR THREE, I FORGET

  • GROWTH IN OUR TABLES, SO THEY WILL TWO OR THREE, I FORGET WHICH ONE.

  • WILL TWO OR THREE, I FORGET WHICH ONE.

  • WILL TWO OR THREE, I FORGET WHICH ONE. BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN IT DID IN

  • WHICH ONE. BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN IT DID IN

  • WHICH ONE. BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN IT DID IN THE PAST, THAT EFFECT, BECAUSE

  • BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN IT DID IN THE PAST, THAT EFFECT, BECAUSE

  • BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN IT DID IN THE PAST, THAT EFFECT, BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME UPSETS.

  • THE PAST, THAT EFFECT, BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME UPSETS.

  • THE PAST, THAT EFFECT, BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME UPSETS. >> GREG QUINN.

  • THERE ARE SOME UPSETS. >> GREG QUINN.

  • THERE ARE SOME UPSETS. >> GREG QUINN. >> Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET

  • >> GREG QUINN. >> Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET

  • >> GREG QUINN. >> Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET NEWS.

  • >> Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET NEWS.

  • >> Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET NEWS. GOOD MORNING.

  • NEWS. GOOD MORNING.

  • NEWS. GOOD MORNING. IF GROWTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE

  • GOOD MORNING. IF GROWTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE

  • GOOD MORNING. IF GROWTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING AND THERE ARE

  • IF GROWTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING AND THERE ARE

  • IF GROWTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING AND THERE ARE STILL BAD THINGS GOING ON IN THE

  • DISAPPOINTING AND THERE ARE STILL BAD THINGS GOING ON IN THE

  • DISAPPOINTING AND THERE ARE STILL BAD THINGS GOING ON IN THE WORLD, HOW IS IT THAT HEADLINE

  • STILL BAD THINGS GOING ON IN THE WORLD, HOW IS IT THAT HEADLINE

  • STILL BAD THINGS GOING ON IN THE WORLD, HOW IS IT THAT HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION STICKS SO

  • WORLD, HOW IS IT THAT HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION STICKS SO

  • WORLD, HOW IS IT THAT HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION STICKS SO CLOSE TO 2% THROUGH THE

  • AND CORE INFLATION STICKS SO CLOSE TO 2% THROUGH THE

  • AND CORE INFLATION STICKS SO CLOSE TO 2% THROUGH THE PROJECTION AND THAT THE RISKS

  • CLOSE TO 2% THROUGH THE PROJECTION AND THAT THE RISKS

  • CLOSE TO 2% THROUGH THE PROJECTION AND THAT THE RISKS AROUND INFLATION REMAIN ROUGHLY

  • PROJECTION AND THAT THE RISKS AROUND INFLATION REMAIN ROUGHLY

  • PROJECTION AND THAT THE RISKS AROUND INFLATION REMAIN ROUGHLY BALANCED?

  • AROUND INFLATION REMAIN ROUGHLY BALANCED?

  • AROUND INFLATION REMAIN ROUGHLY BALANCED? >> WELL, THE PART THAT'S WITH

  • BALANCED? >> WELL, THE PART THAT'S WITH

  • BALANCED? >> WELL, THE PART THAT'S WITH RESPECT TO HISTORY IS JUST A

  • >> WELL, THE PART THAT'S WITH RESPECT TO HISTORY IS JUST A

  • >> WELL, THE PART THAT'S WITH RESPECT TO HISTORY IS JUST A REFLECTION OF HOW A GOOD A

  • RESPECT TO HISTORY IS JUST A REFLECTION OF HOW A GOOD A

  • RESPECT TO HISTORY IS JUST A REFLECTION OF HOW A GOOD A POSITION THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN

  • REFLECTION OF HOW A GOOD A POSITION THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN

  • REFLECTION OF HOW A GOOD A POSITION THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF,

  • POSITION THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF,

  • POSITION THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, BECAUSE ACTUAL CORE INFLATION

  • THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, BECAUSE ACTUAL CORE INFLATION

  • THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, BECAUSE ACTUAL CORE INFLATION REALLY DOES REFLECT WHERE THE

  • BECAUSE ACTUAL CORE INFLATION REALLY DOES REFLECT WHERE THE

  • BECAUSE ACTUAL CORE INFLATION REALLY DOES REFLECT WHERE THE ECONOMY WAS, SAY, WITH A PEAK OF

  • REALLY DOES REFLECT WHERE THE ECONOMY WAS, SAY, WITH A PEAK OF

  • REALLY DOES REFLECT WHERE THE ECONOMY WAS, SAY, WITH A PEAK OF SIX QUARTERS AGO AND SO THAT'S

  • ECONOMY WAS, SAY, WITH A PEAK OF SIX QUARTERS AGO AND SO THAT'S

  • ECONOMY WAS, SAY, WITH A PEAK OF SIX QUARTERS AGO AND SO THAT'S WHY INFLATION TARGETING IS A

  • SIX QUARTERS AGO AND SO THAT'S WHY INFLATION TARGETING IS A

  • SIX QUARTERS AGO AND SO THAT'S WHY INFLATION TARGETING IS A FORWARD LOOKING BUSINESS, SO

  • WHY INFLATION TARGETING IS A FORWARD LOOKING BUSINESS, SO

  • WHY INFLATION TARGETING IS A FORWARD LOOKING BUSINESS, SO YOUR QUESTION ABOUT, WELL, HOW

  • FORWARD LOOKING BUSINESS, SO YOUR QUESTION ABOUT, WELL, HOW

  • FORWARD LOOKING BUSINESS, SO YOUR QUESTION ABOUT, WELL, HOW COME IT STICKS CLOSE TARGETED IS

  • YOUR QUESTION ABOUT, WELL, HOW COME IT STICKS CLOSE TARGETED IS

  • YOUR QUESTION ABOUT, WELL, HOW COME IT STICKS CLOSE TARGETED IS A GOOD ONE.

  • COME IT STICKS CLOSE TARGETED IS A GOOD ONE.

  • COME IT STICKS CLOSE TARGETED IS A GOOD ONE. WE KEEP MENTIONING CHART FIVE

  • A GOOD ONE. WE KEEP MENTIONING CHART FIVE

  • A GOOD ONE. WE KEEP MENTIONING CHART FIVE BUT IT'S THERE.

  • WE KEEP MENTIONING CHART FIVE BUT IT'S THERE.

  • WE KEEP MENTIONING CHART FIVE BUT IT'S THERE. GIVEN WE EXPECT A PICKUP IN

  • BUT IT'S THERE. GIVEN WE EXPECT A PICKUP IN

  • BUT IT'S THERE. GIVEN WE EXPECT A PICKUP IN GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND

  • GIVEN WE EXPECT A PICKUP IN GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND

  • GIVEN WE EXPECT A PICKUP IN GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND THEN STRONGER IN THE SECOND

  • GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND THEN STRONGER IN THE SECOND

  • GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND THEN STRONGER IN THE SECOND QUARTER, THE OUTPUT GAP THAT'S

  • THEN STRONGER IN THE SECOND QUARTER, THE OUTPUT GAP THAT'S

  • THEN STRONGER IN THE SECOND QUARTER, THE OUTPUT GAP THAT'S ONLY JUST OPENED UP STARTS TO

  • QUARTER, THE OUTPUT GAP THAT'S ONLY JUST OPENED UP STARTS TO

  • QUARTER, THE OUTPUT GAP THAT'S ONLY JUST OPENED UP STARTS TO CLOSE AND REMAINS VERY SMALL.

  • ONLY JUST OPENED UP STARTS TO CLOSE AND REMAINS VERY SMALL.

  • ONLY JUST OPENED UP STARTS TO CLOSE AND REMAINS VERY SMALL. AND SO IT ONLY HAS A VERY SMALL

  • CLOSE AND REMAINS VERY SMALL. AND SO IT ONLY HAS A VERY SMALL

  • CLOSE AND REMAINS VERY SMALL. AND SO IT ONLY HAS A VERY SMALL DRAG, EXPECTED DRAG, ON

  • AND SO IT ONLY HAS A VERY SMALL DRAG, EXPECTED DRAG, ON

  • AND SO IT ONLY HAS A VERY SMALL DRAG, EXPECTED DRAG, ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION

  • DRAG, EXPECTED DRAG, ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION

  • DRAG, EXPECTED DRAG, ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON.

  • INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON.

  • INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S SOME

  • HORIZON. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S SOME

  • HORIZON. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S SOME OFFSETTING FACTORS, INCLUDING

  • AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S SOME OFFSETTING FACTORS, INCLUDING

  • AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S SOME OFFSETTING FACTORS, INCLUDING THE VERY SMALL EFFECT OF THE

  • OFFSETTING FACTORS, INCLUDING THE VERY SMALL EFFECT OF THE

  • OFFSETTING FACTORS, INCLUDING THE VERY SMALL EFFECT OF THE CARBON TAX AND SO IT JUST

  • THE VERY SMALL EFFECT OF THE CARBON TAX AND SO IT JUST

  • THE VERY SMALL EFFECT OF THE CARBON TAX AND SO IT JUST WIGGLES AROUND 2 UNTIL THE

  • CARBON TAX AND SO IT JUST WIGGLES AROUND 2 UNTIL THE

  • CARBON TAX AND SO IT JUST WIGGLES AROUND 2 UNTIL THE HORIZON.

  • WIGGLES AROUND 2 UNTIL THE HORIZON.

  • WIGGLES AROUND 2 UNTIL THE HORIZON. >> I WOULD LIKE TO DIG INTO

  • HORIZON. >> I WOULD LIKE TO DIG INTO

  • HORIZON. >> I WOULD LIKE TO DIG INTO KEVIN'S QUESTION MORE ON

  • >> I WOULD LIKE TO DIG INTO KEVIN'S QUESTION MORE ON

  • >> I WOULD LIKE TO DIG INTO KEVIN'S QUESTION MORE ON PERSISTENCE.

  • KEVIN'S QUESTION MORE ON PERSISTENCE.

  • KEVIN'S QUESTION MORE ON PERSISTENCE. WHAT'S THE RUNWAY HERE?

  • PERSISTENCE. WHAT'S THE RUNWAY HERE?

  • PERSISTENCE. WHAT'S THE RUNWAY HERE? IF WEAKNESS SPILLED INTO THE

  • WHAT'S THE RUNWAY HERE? IF WEAKNESS SPILLED INTO THE

  • WHAT'S THE RUNWAY HERE? IF WEAKNESS SPILLED INTO THE SECOND QUARTER, WOULD THAT BE

  • IF WEAKNESS SPILLED INTO THE SECOND QUARTER, WOULD THAT BE

  • IF WEAKNESS SPILLED INTO THE SECOND QUARTER, WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO CALL IT PERSISTENCE?

  • SECOND QUARTER, WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO CALL IT PERSISTENCE?

  • SECOND QUARTER, WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO CALL IT PERSISTENCE? IS THERE A SCOPE BEYOND THAT?

  • ENOUGH TO CALL IT PERSISTENCE? IS THERE A SCOPE BEYOND THAT?

  • ENOUGH TO CALL IT PERSISTENCE? IS THERE A SCOPE BEYOND THAT? OR EVEN IF THE FIRST QUARTER IS

  • IS THERE A SCOPE BEYOND THAT? OR EVEN IF THE FIRST QUARTER IS

  • IS THERE A SCOPE BEYOND THAT? OR EVEN IF THE FIRST QUARTER IS WORSE THAN EXPECTED OR THERE'S A

  • OR EVEN IF THE FIRST QUARTER IS WORSE THAN EXPECTED OR THERE'S A

  • OR EVEN IF THE FIRST QUARTER IS WORSE THAN EXPECTED OR THERE'S A REVISION OF THE FOURTH QUARTER,

  • WORSE THAN EXPECTED OR THERE'S A REVISION OF THE FOURTH QUARTER,

  • WORSE THAN EXPECTED OR THERE'S A REVISION OF THE FOURTH QUARTER, IS THERE ANY KIND OF TIME FRAME

  • REVISION OF THE FOURTH QUARTER, IS THERE ANY KIND OF TIME FRAME

  • REVISION OF THE FOURTH QUARTER, IS THERE ANY KIND OF TIME FRAME WHERE PERSISTENCE BECOMES A

  • IS THERE ANY KIND OF TIME FRAME WHERE PERSISTENCE BECOMES A

  • IS THERE ANY KIND OF TIME FRAME WHERE PERSISTENCE BECOMES A REALITY?

  • WHERE PERSISTENCE BECOMES A REALITY?

  • WHERE PERSISTENCE BECOMES A REALITY? >> SO ALL THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD

  • REALITY? >> SO ALL THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD

  • REALITY? >> SO ALL THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD APPLY.

  • >> SO ALL THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD APPLY.

  • >> SO ALL THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD APPLY. SO WHETHER -- IN A WAY --

  • APPLY. SO WHETHER -- IN A WAY --

  • APPLY. SO WHETHER -- IN A WAY -- WHICHEVER SENSE, IF THE FORECAST

  • SO WHETHER -- IN A WAY -- WHICHEVER SENSE, IF THE FORECAST

  • SO WHETHER -- IN A WAY -- WHICHEVER SENSE, IF THE FORECAST IS ONE WHICH, AS WE UPDATE IT,

  • WHICHEVER SENSE, IF THE FORECAST IS ONE WHICH, AS WE UPDATE IT,

  • WHICHEVER SENSE, IF THE FORECAST IS ONE WHICH, AS WE UPDATE IT, IT GETS REVISED DOWN FURTHER,

  • IS ONE WHICH, AS WE UPDATE IT, IT GETS REVISED DOWN FURTHER,

  • IS ONE WHICH, AS WE UPDATE IT, IT GETS REVISED DOWN FURTHER, WITH MEETING AN CUMULATIVELY

  • IT GETS REVISED DOWN FURTHER, WITH MEETING AN CUMULATIVELY

  • IT GETS REVISED DOWN FURTHER, WITH MEETING AN CUMULATIVELY LARGER EFFECT.

  • WITH MEETING AN CUMULATIVELY LARGER EFFECT.

  • WITH MEETING AN CUMULATIVELY LARGER EFFECT. THAT WOULD PUT AN INCREASED

  • LARGER EFFECT. THAT WOULD PUT AN INCREASED

  • LARGER EFFECT. THAT WOULD PUT AN INCREASED DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION

  • THAT WOULD PUT AN INCREASED DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION

  • THAT WOULD PUT AN INCREASED DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION AND IT WOULDN'T WIGGLE THE RATE

  • DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION AND IT WOULDN'T WIGGLE THE RATE

  • DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION AND IT WOULDN'T WIGGLE THE RATE AROUND 2%.

  • AND IT WOULDN'T WIGGLE THE RATE AROUND 2%.

  • AND IT WOULDN'T WIGGLE THE RATE AROUND 2%. IT WOULD START TO SHOW A LITTLE

  • AROUND 2%. IT WOULD START TO SHOW A LITTLE

  • AROUND 2%. IT WOULD START TO SHOW A LITTLE LESS THAN 2%.

  • IT WOULD START TO SHOW A LITTLE LESS THAN 2%.

  • IT WOULD START TO SHOW A LITTLE LESS THAN 2%. SO THEN YOU WOULD BEGIN TO

  • LESS THAN 2%. SO THEN YOU WOULD BEGIN TO

  • LESS THAN 2%. SO THEN YOU WOULD BEGIN TO FACTOR THAT IN.

  • SO THEN YOU WOULD BEGIN TO FACTOR THAT IN.

  • SO THEN YOU WOULD BEGIN TO FACTOR THAT IN. THAT COULD BE BECAUSE Q 4 WAS

  • FACTOR THAT IN. THAT COULD BE BECAUSE Q 4 WAS

  • FACTOR THAT IN. THAT COULD BE BECAUSE Q 4 WAS EVEN WEAKER THAN WE WERE

  • THAT COULD BE BECAUSE Q 4 WAS EVEN WEAKER THAN WE WERE

  • THAT COULD BE BECAUSE Q 4 WAS EVEN WEAKER THAN WE WERE MONITORING OR Q 1 OR IT COULD

  • EVEN WEAKER THAN WE WERE MONITORING OR Q 1 OR IT COULD

  • EVEN WEAKER THAN WE WERE MONITORING OR Q 1 OR IT COULD MOVE INTO Q 2.

  • MONITORING OR Q 1 OR IT COULD MOVE INTO Q 2.

  • MONITORING OR Q 1 OR IT COULD MOVE INTO Q 2. SO THIS BUSINESS OF THE

  • MOVE INTO Q 2. SO THIS BUSINESS OF THE

  • MOVE INTO Q 2. SO THIS BUSINESS OF THE DYNAMICS, IT'S NOT JUST A

  • SO THIS BUSINESS OF THE DYNAMICS, IT'S NOT JUST A

  • SO THIS BUSINESS OF THE DYNAMICS, IT'S NOT JUST A MECHANICAL THING.

  • DYNAMICS, IT'S NOT JUST A MECHANICAL THING.

  • DYNAMICS, IT'S NOT JUST A MECHANICAL THING. SO THE Q 4 WERE EXPECTED BIT

  • MECHANICAL THING. SO THE Q 4 WERE EXPECTED BIT

  • MECHANICAL THING. SO THE Q 4 WERE EXPECTED BIT EARLY INDICATORS FROM Q 1 WERE

  • SO THE Q 4 WERE EXPECTED BIT EARLY INDICATORS FROM Q 1 WERE

  • SO THE Q 4 WERE EXPECTED BIT EARLY INDICATORS FROM Q 1 WERE SHOWING THE REBOUND THAT WE'RE

  • EARLY INDICATORS FROM Q 1 WERE SHOWING THE REBOUND THAT WE'RE

  • EARLY INDICATORS FROM Q 1 WERE SHOWING THE REBOUND THAT WE'RE CALLING FOR.

  • SHOWING THE REBOUND THAT WE'RE CALLING FOR.

  • SHOWING THE REBOUND THAT WE'RE CALLING FOR. WELL, THAT MEANS YOU DON'T JUST

  • CALLING FOR. WELL, THAT MEANS YOU DON'T JUST

  • CALLING FOR. WELL, THAT MEANS YOU DON'T JUST GO MECHANICAL ABOUT IT.

  • WELL, THAT MEANS YOU DON'T JUST GO MECHANICAL ABOUT IT.

  • WELL, THAT MEANS YOU DON'T JUST GO MECHANICAL ABOUT IT. SO YOU GET THE MOMENTUM GOES

  • GO MECHANICAL ABOUT IT. SO YOU GET THE MOMENTUM GOES

  • GO MECHANICAL ABOUT IT. SO YOU GET THE MOMENTUM GOES BACK TO THE GOOD SIDE AND THEN

  • SO YOU GET THE MOMENTUM GOES BACK TO THE GOOD SIDE AND THEN

  • SO YOU GET THE MOMENTUM GOES BACK TO THE GOOD SIDE AND THEN IT'S A VERY POSITIVE

  • BACK TO THE GOOD SIDE AND THEN IT'S A VERY POSITIVE

  • BACK TO THE GOOD SIDE AND THEN IT'S A VERY POSITIVE DEVELOPME.

  • IT'S A VERY POSITIVE DEVELOPME.

  • IT'S A VERY POSITIVE DEVELOPME. SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, A GOOD,

  • DEVELOPME. SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, A GOOD,

  • DEVELOPME. SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, A GOOD, FOR INSTANCE, IS, CONSUMER

  • SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, A GOOD, FOR INSTANCE, IS, CONSUMER

  • SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, A GOOD, FOR INSTANCE, IS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS WEAK IN THE

  • FOR INSTANCE, IS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS WEAK IN THE

  • FOR INSTANCE, IS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS WEAK IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, AND YOU COULD

  • CONFIDENCE WAS WEAK IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, AND YOU COULD

  • CONFIDENCE WAS WEAK IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, AND YOU COULD POINT TO LOTS OF REASONS WHY IT

  • FOURTH QUARTER, AND YOU COULD POINT TO LOTS OF REASONS WHY IT

  • FOURTH QUARTER, AND YOU COULD POINT TO LOTS OF REASONS WHY IT MIGHT BE THE CASE.

  • POINT TO LOTS OF REASONS WHY IT MIGHT BE THE CASE.

  • POINT TO LOTS OF REASONS WHY IT MIGHT BE THE CASE. AND MANY OF THEM ARE KIND OF

  • MIGHT BE THE CASE. AND MANY OF THEM ARE KIND OF

  • MIGHT BE THE CASE. AND MANY OF THEM ARE KIND OF TEMPORARY REASONS, YOU KNOW.

  • AND MANY OF THEM ARE KIND OF TEMPORARY REASONS, YOU KNOW.

  • AND MANY OF THEM ARE KIND OF TEMPORARY REASONS, YOU KNOW. SO A GOOD TEST OF THAT WOULD BE,

  • TEMPORARY REASONS, YOU KNOW. SO A GOOD TEST OF THAT WOULD BE,

  • TEMPORARY REASONS, YOU KNOW. SO A GOOD TEST OF THAT WOULD BE, WHAT HAPPENS IS WE GET INTO THE

  • SO A GOOD TEST OF THAT WOULD BE, WHAT HAPPENS IS WE GET INTO THE

  • SO A GOOD TEST OF THAT WOULD BE, WHAT HAPPENS IS WE GET INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR WITH

  • WHAT HAPPENS IS WE GET INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR WITH

  • WHAT HAPPENS IS WE GET INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR WITH THE DATA, JANUARY, FEBRUARY,

  • FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR WITH THE DATA, JANUARY, FEBRUARY,

  • FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR WITH THE DATA, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH, IF YOU GET CONSUMER

  • THE DATA, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH, IF YOU GET CONSUMER

  • THE DATA, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH, IF YOU GET CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GOING BACK TO NORMAL,

  • MARCH, IF YOU GET CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GOING BACK TO NORMAL,

  • MARCH, IF YOU GET CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GOING BACK TO NORMAL, THAT WOULD BE A REASSURING

  • CONFIDENCE GOING BACK TO NORMAL, THAT WOULD BE A REASSURING

  • CONFIDENCE GOING BACK TO NORMAL, THAT WOULD BE A REASSURING SIGNAL.

  • THAT WOULD BE A REASSURING SIGNAL.

  • THAT WOULD BE A REASSURING SIGNAL. THAT WOULD BE ONE.

  • SIGNAL. THAT WOULD BE ONE.

  • SIGNAL. THAT WOULD BE ONE. WE MENTIONED RETAIL SALES IN THE

  • THAT WOULD BE ONE. WE MENTIONED RETAIL SALES IN THE

  • THAT WOULD BE ONE. WE MENTIONED RETAIL SALES IN THE OPENING REMARKS.

  • WE MENTIONED RETAIL SALES IN THE OPENING REMARKS.

  • WE MENTIONED RETAIL SALES IN THE OPENING REMARKS. YOU KNOW, SO WE KNOW THAT WHEN

  • OPENING REMARKS. YOU KNOW, SO WE KNOW THAT WHEN

  • OPENING REMARKS. YOU KNOW, SO WE KNOW THAT WHEN YOU BUY SOMETHING ON AMAZON,

  • YOU KNOW, SO WE KNOW THAT WHEN YOU BUY SOMETHING ON AMAZON,

  • YOU KNOW, SO WE KNOW THAT WHEN YOU BUY SOMETHING ON AMAZON, WHICH PEOPLE DID A LOT, OVER THE

  • YOU BUY SOMETHING ON AMAZON, WHICH PEOPLE DID A LOT, OVER THE

  • YOU BUY SOMETHING ON AMAZON, WHICH PEOPLE DID A LOT, OVER THE CHRISTMAS SEASON, IT'S NOT

  • WHICH PEOPLE DID A LOT, OVER THE CHRISTMAS SEASON, IT'S NOT

  • WHICH PEOPLE DID A LOT, OVER THE CHRISTMAS SEASON, IT'S NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL

  • CHRISTMAS SEASON, IT'S NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL

  • CHRISTMAS SEASON, IT'S NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA.

  • CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA.

  • CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA. AND WE KNOW FROM U.S. DATA POINT

  • SALES DATA. AND WE KNOW FROM U.S. DATA POINT

  • SALES DATA. AND WE KNOW FROM U.S. DATA POINT THAT RETAIL SALES WERE

  • AND WE KNOW FROM U.S. DATA POINT THAT RETAIL SALES WERE

  • AND WE KNOW FROM U.S. DATA POINT THAT RETAIL SALES WERE SPECTACULARLY STRONG IN

  • THAT RETAIL SALES WERE SPECTACULARLY STRONG IN

  • THAT RETAIL SALES WERE SPECTACULARLY STRONG IN DECEMBER.

  • SPECTACULARLY STRONG IN DECEMBER.

  • SPECTACULARLY STRONG IN DECEMBER. LIKE, 13% GROWTH.

  • DECEMBER. LIKE, 13% GROWTH.

  • DECEMBER. LIKE, 13% GROWTH. THAT INCLUDES RETAIL SALES FROM

  • LIKE, 13% GROWTH. THAT INCLUDES RETAIL SALES FROM

  • LIKE, 13% GROWTH. THAT INCLUDES RETAIL SALES FROM CANADA, BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW,

  • THAT INCLUDES RETAIL SALES FROM CANADA, BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW,

  • THAT INCLUDES RETAIL SALES FROM CANADA, BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW, THE AMAZON CHANNEL, WHICH IS NOT

  • CANADA, BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW, THE AMAZON CHANNEL, WHICH IS NOT

  • CANADA, BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW, THE AMAZON CHANNEL, WHICH IS NOT A CANADIAN RETAILER.

  • THE AMAZON CHANNEL, WHICH IS NOT A CANADIAN RETAILER.

  • THE AMAZON CHANNEL, WHICH IS NOT A CANADIAN RETAILER. SO THAT -- WHAT HAPPENS IS

  • A CANADIAN RETAILER. SO THAT -- WHAT HAPPENS IS

  • A CANADIAN RETAILER. SO THAT -- WHAT HAPPENS IS CANADA DOES ITS VERY BEST FOR

  • SO THAT -- WHAT HAPPENS IS CANADA DOES ITS VERY BEST FOR

  • SO THAT -- WHAT HAPPENS IS CANADA DOES ITS VERY BEST FOR THAT DEFICIENCY WHEN THEY DO THE

  • CANADA DOES ITS VERY BEST FOR THAT DEFICIENCY WHEN THEY DO THE

  • CANADA DOES ITS VERY BEST FOR THAT DEFICIENCY WHEN THEY DO THE NATIONAL COUNTS.

  • THAT DEFICIENCY WHEN THEY DO THE NATIONAL COUNTS.

  • THAT DEFICIENCY WHEN THEY DO THE NATIONAL COUNTS. BECAUSE THEN THEY HAVE ALL THE

  • NATIONAL COUNTS. BECAUSE THEN THEY HAVE ALL THE

  • NATIONAL COUNTS. BECAUSE THEN THEY HAVE ALL THE IMPORT DATA AND YOUR INCOME DATA

  • BECAUSE THEN THEY HAVE ALL THE IMPORT DATA AND YOUR INCOME DATA

  • BECAUSE THEN THEY HAVE ALL THE IMPORT DATA AND YOUR INCOME DATA AND ALL THAT.

  • IMPORT DATA AND YOUR INCOME DATA AND ALL THAT.

  • IMPORT DATA AND YOUR INCOME DATA AND ALL THAT. TO RECONCILE THINGS.

  • AND ALL THAT. TO RECONCILE THINGS.

  • AND ALL THAT. TO RECONCILE THINGS. BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, CANADIAN

  • TO RECONCILE THINGS. BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, CANADIAN

  • TO RECONCILE THINGS. BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, CANADIAN RETAIL SALES HAVE LOOKED SOFT.

  • BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, CANADIAN RETAIL SALES HAVE LOOKED SOFT.

  • BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, CANADIAN RETAIL SALES HAVE LOOKED SOFT. SO YOU GOT TO INSERT A LITTLE

  • RETAIL SALES HAVE LOOKED SOFT. SO YOU GOT TO INSERT A LITTLE

  • RETAIL SALES HAVE LOOKED SOFT. SO YOU GOT TO INSERT A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT IF THE

  • SO YOU GOT TO INSERT A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT IF THE

  • SO YOU GOT TO INSERT A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT IF THE READING SO IF YOU GET THE

  • UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT IF THE READING SO IF YOU GET THE

  • UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT IF THE READING SO IF YOU GET THE NATIONAL COUNCIL REASSURES YOU,

  • READING SO IF YOU GET THE NATIONAL COUNCIL REASSURES YOU,

  • READING SO IF YOU GET THE NATIONAL COUNCIL REASSURES YOU, THEN -- THOSE ARE THE KIND OF

  • NATIONAL COUNCIL REASSURES YOU, THEN -- THOSE ARE THE KIND OF

  • NATIONAL COUNCIL REASSURES YOU, THEN -- THOSE ARE THE KIND OF THINGS THAT CAN REALLY CHANGE

  • THEN -- THOSE ARE THE KIND OF THINGS THAT CAN REALLY CHANGE

  • THEN -- THOSE ARE THE KIND OF THINGS THAT CAN REALLY CHANGE THE COLOUR OF THE ANALYSIS.

  • THINGS THAT CAN REALLY CHANGE THE COLOUR OF THE ANALYSIS.

  • THINGS THAT CAN REALLY CHANGE THE COLOUR OF THE ANALYSIS. >> Question: THANK YOU,

  • THE COLOUR OF THE ANALYSIS. >> Question: THANK YOU,

  • THE COLOUR OF THE ANALYSIS. >> Question: THANK YOU, GOVERNOR, FOR TAKING MY

  • >> Question: THANK YOU, GOVERNOR, FOR TAKING MY

  • >> Question: THANK YOU, GOVERNOR, FOR TAKING MY QUESTION.

  • GOVERNOR, FOR TAKING MY QUESTION.

  • GOVERNOR, FOR TAKING MY QUESTION. YOU'VE MENTIONED THAT YOU EXPECT

  • QUESTION. YOU'VE MENTIONED THAT YOU EXPECT

  • QUESTION. YOU'VE MENTIONED THAT YOU EXPECT A REBOUND IN GROWTH FOR Q 1, BUT

  • YOU'VE MENTIONED THAT YOU EXPECT A REBOUND IN GROWTH FOR Q 1, BUT

  • YOU'VE MENTIONED THAT YOU EXPECT A REBOUND IN GROWTH FOR Q 1, BUT IT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT IT'S

  • A REBOUND IN GROWTH FOR Q 1, BUT IT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT IT'S

  • A REBOUND IN GROWTH FOR Q 1, BUT IT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT IT'S AT A RATE SLOWER THAN WAS

  • IT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT IT'S AT A RATE SLOWER THAN WAS

  • IT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT IT'S AT A RATE SLOWER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE BANK.

  • AT A RATE SLOWER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE BANK.

  • AT A RATE SLOWER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE BANK. WHY IS THAT?

  • PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE BANK. WHY IS THAT?

  • PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE BANK. WHY IS THAT? WHY DO YOU SEE A SLOWER REBOUND

  • WHY IS THAT? WHY DO YOU SEE A SLOWER REBOUND

  • WHY IS THAT? WHY DO YOU SEE A SLOWER REBOUND THAN FIRST EXPECTED?

  • WHY DO YOU SEE A SLOWER REBOUND THAN FIRST EXPECTED?

  • WHY DO YOU SEE A SLOWER REBOUND THAN FIRST EXPECTED? >> WELL, FOR ALL THE THINGS THAT

  • THAN FIRST EXPECTED? >> WELL, FOR ALL THE THINGS THAT

  • THAN FIRST EXPECTED? >> WELL, FOR ALL THE THINGS THAT WE JUST HAVE BEEN MENTIONING.

  • >> WELL, FOR ALL THE THINGS THAT WE JUST HAVE BEEN MENTIONING.

  • >> WELL, FOR ALL THE THINGS THAT WE JUST HAVE BEEN MENTIONING. IT'S OFTEN -- SOMETIMES WHEN YOU

  • WE JUST HAVE BEEN MENTIONING. IT'S OFTEN -- SOMETIMES WHEN YOU

  • WE JUST HAVE BEEN MENTIONING. IT'S OFTEN -- SOMETIMES WHEN YOU GET A DATA POINT THAT SURPRISES

  • IT'S OFTEN -- SOMETIMES WHEN YOU GET A DATA POINT THAT SURPRISES

  • IT'S OFTEN -- SOMETIMES WHEN YOU GET A DATA POINT THAT SURPRISES YOU, YOU CAN FIND SPECIAL

  • GET A DATA POINT THAT SURPRISES YOU, YOU CAN FIND SPECIAL

  • GET A DATA POINT THAT SURPRISES YOU, YOU CAN FIND SPECIAL FACTORS AND THINK OH, THE VERY

  • YOU, YOU CAN FIND SPECIAL FACTORS AND THINK OH, THE VERY

  • YOU, YOU CAN FIND SPECIAL FACTORS AND THINK OH, THE VERY NEXT TIME I SEE THOSE DATA

  • FACTORS AND THINK OH, THE VERY NEXT TIME I SEE THOSE DATA

  • FACTORS AND THINK OH, THE VERY NEXT TIME I SEE THOSE DATA POINTS, IT WILL BE REVERSED.

  • NEXT TIME I SEE THOSE DATA POINTS, IT WILL BE REVERSED.

  • NEXT TIME I SEE THOSE DATA POINTS, IT WILL BE REVERSED. OTHER TIMES, YOU SEE THIS AND

  • POINTS, IT WILL BE REVERSED. OTHER TIMES, YOU SEE THIS AND

  • POINTS, IT WILL BE REVERSED. OTHER TIMES, YOU SEE THIS AND OTHER THINGS COME TOGETHER.

  • OTHER TIMES, YOU SEE THIS AND OTHER THINGS COME TOGETHER.

  • OTHER TIMES, YOU SEE THIS AND OTHER THINGS COME TOGETHER. LIKE I SAID BEFORE, WE DIDN'T

  • OTHER THINGS COME TOGETHER. LIKE I SAID BEFORE, WE DIDN'T

  • OTHER THINGS COME TOGETHER. LIKE I SAID BEFORE, WE DIDN'T JUST HAVE SOME WEAK RETAIL

  • LIKE I SAID BEFORE, WE DIDN'T JUST HAVE SOME WEAK RETAIL

  • LIKE I SAID BEFORE, WE DIDN'T JUST HAVE SOME WEAK RETAIL SALES.

  • JUST HAVE SOME WEAK RETAIL SALES.

  • JUST HAVE SOME WEAK RETAIL SALES. WE HAD WEAK VEHICLE SALES.

  • SALES. WE HAD WEAK VEHICLE SALES.

  • SALES. WE HAD WEAK VEHICLE SALES. YOU COULD MEASURE THEM WELL.

  • WE HAD WEAK VEHICLE SALES. YOU COULD MEASURE THEM WELL.

  • WE HAD WEAK VEHICLE SALES. YOU COULD MEASURE THEM WELL. WE HAD DECLINING CONSUMER

  • YOU COULD MEASURE THEM WELL. WE HAD DECLINING CONSUMER

  • YOU COULD MEASURE THEM WELL. WE HAD DECLINING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND YOU CAN MEASURE

  • WE HAD DECLINING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND YOU CAN MEASURE

  • WE HAD DECLINING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND YOU CAN MEASURE THAT QUITE WELL.

  • CONFIDENCE AND YOU CAN MEASURE THAT QUITE WELL.

  • CONFIDENCE AND YOU CAN MEASURE THAT QUITE WELL. SO THOSE THINGS FEEL MORE --

  • THAT QUITE WELL. SO THOSE THINGS FEEL MORE --

  • THAT QUITE WELL. SO THOSE THINGS FEEL MORE -- THEY'RE NOT JUST SURPRISES.

  • SO THOSE THINGS FEEL MORE -- THEY'RE NOT JUST SURPRISES.

  • SO THOSE THINGS FEEL MORE -- THEY'RE NOT JUST SURPRISES. THEY'RE MORE PROFOUND.

  • THEY'RE NOT JUST SURPRISES. THEY'RE MORE PROFOUND.

  • THEY'RE NOT JUST SURPRISES. THEY'RE MORE PROFOUND. AND SO THE QUESTION IS: WHAT IS

  • THEY'RE MORE PROFOUND. AND SO THE QUESTION IS: WHAT IS

  • THEY'RE MORE PROFOUND. AND SO THE QUESTION IS: WHAT IS DRIVING THAT?

  • AND SO THE QUESTION IS: WHAT IS DRIVING THAT?

  • AND SO THE QUESTION IS: WHAT IS DRIVING THAT? SO IT'S MORE BEHAVIOURAL THAN

  • DRIVING THAT? SO IT'S MORE BEHAVIOURAL THAN

  • DRIVING THAT? SO IT'S MORE BEHAVIOURAL THAN CAN'T BLAME THAT ON THE WEATHER

  • SO IT'S MORE BEHAVIOURAL THAN CAN'T BLAME THAT ON THE WEATHER

  • SO IT'S MORE BEHAVIOURAL THAN CAN'T BLAME THAT ON THE WEATHER PER SE AND THE WEATHER MAY HAVE

  • CAN'T BLAME THAT ON THE WEATHER PER SE AND THE WEATHER MAY HAVE

  • CAN'T BLAME THAT ON THE WEATHER PER SE AND THE WEATHER MAY HAVE PLAYED A ROLE AND CONTRIBUTED TO

  • PER SE AND THE WEATHER MAY HAVE PLAYED A ROLE AND CONTRIBUTED TO

  • PER SE AND THE WEATHER MAY HAVE PLAYED A ROLE AND CONTRIBUTED TO IT, MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN IT

  • PLAYED A ROLE AND CONTRIBUTED TO IT, MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN IT

  • PLAYED A ROLE AND CONTRIBUTED TO IT, MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN IT IS.

  • IT, MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN IT IS.

  • IT, MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN IT IS. SO THAT'S WHY WE -- IT BECOMES A

  • IS. SO THAT'S WHY WE -- IT BECOMES A

  • IS. SO THAT'S WHY WE -- IT BECOMES A QUESTION MARK.

  • SO THAT'S WHY WE -- IT BECOMES A QUESTION MARK.

  • SO THAT'S WHY WE -- IT BECOMES A QUESTION MARK. AND IN ADDITION, YOU GET AN

  • QUESTION MARK. AND IN ADDITION, YOU GET AN

  • QUESTION MARK. AND IN ADDITION, YOU GET AN INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT PROCESS.

  • AND IN ADDITION, YOU GET AN INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT PROCESS.

  • AND IN ADDITION, YOU GET AN INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT PROCESS. SO YOU BUY LESS TODAY, THEN THE

  • INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT PROCESS. SO YOU BUY LESS TODAY, THEN THE

  • INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT PROCESS. SO YOU BUY LESS TODAY, THEN THE INVENTORIES GO UP AND THE

  • SO YOU BUY LESS TODAY, THEN THE INVENTORIES GO UP AND THE

  • SO YOU BUY LESS TODAY, THEN THE INVENTORIES GO UP AND THE SUPPLIERS CAN ORDER LESS IN Q 1,

  • INVENTORIES GO UP AND THE SUPPLIERS CAN ORDER LESS IN Q 1,

  • INVENTORIES GO UP AND THE SUPPLIERS CAN ORDER LESS IN Q 1, SO YOU GET THAT -- THE THING

  • SUPPLIERS CAN ORDER LESS IN Q 1, SO YOU GET THAT -- THE THING

  • SUPPLIERS CAN ORDER LESS IN Q 1, SO YOU GET THAT -- THE THING ALMOST BY DEFINITION BECOMES A

  • SO YOU GET THAT -- THE THING ALMOST BY DEFINITION BECOMES A

  • SO YOU GET THAT -- THE THING ALMOST BY DEFINITION BECOMES A BIT MORE PROLONGED AS EVERYBODY

  • ALMOST BY DEFINITION BECOMES A BIT MORE PROLONGED AS EVERYBODY

  • ALMOST BY DEFINITION BECOMES A BIT MORE PROLONGED AS EVERYBODY REACTS TO IT.

  • BIT MORE PROLONGED AS EVERYBODY REACTS TO IT.

  • BIT MORE PROLONGED AS EVERYBODY REACTS TO IT. SO AS LONG AS WE CAN UNDERSTAND

  • REACTS TO IT. SO AS LONG AS WE CAN UNDERSTAND

  • REACTS TO IT. SO AS LONG AS WE CAN UNDERSTAND THOSE COMPONENTS AND IF WE

  • SO AS LONG AS WE CAN UNDERSTAND THOSE COMPONENTS AND IF WE

  • SO AS LONG AS WE CAN UNDERSTAND THOSE COMPONENTS AND IF WE CONTEND THE DYNAMICS ARE AS WE

  • THOSE COMPONENTS AND IF WE CONTEND THE DYNAMICS ARE AS WE

  • THOSE COMPONENTS AND IF WE CONTEND THE DYNAMICS ARE AS WE DESCRIBED HERE, WE'LL BE

  • CONTEND THE DYNAMICS ARE AS WE DESCRIBED HERE, WE'LL BE

  • CONTEND THE DYNAMICS ARE AS WE DESCRIBED HERE, WE'LL BE CONFIRMING OUR NARRATIVE, BUT

  • DESCRIBED HERE, WE'LL BE CONFIRMING OUR NARRATIVE, BUT

  • DESCRIBED HERE, WE'LL BE CONFIRMING OUR NARRATIVE, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVERY

  • CONFIRMING OUR NARRATIVE, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVERY

  • CONFIRMING OUR NARRATIVE, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVERY BIT OF IT TO BE -- SO JUST --

  • WE'LL HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVERY BIT OF IT TO BE -- SO JUST --

  • WE'LL HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVERY BIT OF IT TO BE -- SO JUST -- IT'S JUST THE WAY FORECASTS

  • BIT OF IT TO BE -- SO JUST -- IT'S JUST THE WAY FORECASTS

  • BIT OF IT TO BE -- SO JUST -- IT'S JUST THE WAY FORECASTS WORK.

  • IT'S JUST THE WAY FORECASTS WORK.

  • IT'S JUST THE WAY FORECASTS WORK. THEY TEND TO HAVE A DYNAMIC TO

  • WORK. THEY TEND TO HAVE A DYNAMIC TO

  • WORK. THEY TEND TO HAVE A DYNAMIC TO THEM.

  • THEY TEND TO HAVE A DYNAMIC TO THEM.

  • THEY TEND TO HAVE A DYNAMIC TO THEM. DEPENDING WHAT YOUR UNDERLYING

  • THEM. DEPENDING WHAT YOUR UNDERLYING

  • THEM. DEPENDING WHAT YOUR UNDERLYING NARRATIVE IS.

  • DEPENDING WHAT YOUR UNDERLYING NARRATIVE IS.

  • DEPENDING WHAT YOUR UNDERLYING NARRATIVE IS. IF IT'S BEHAVIOURAL, THEN IT

  • NARRATIVE IS. IF IT'S BEHAVIOURAL, THEN IT

  • NARRATIVE IS. IF IT'S BEHAVIOURAL, THEN IT DOESN'T USUALLY END JUST

  • IF IT'S BEHAVIOURAL, THEN IT DOESN'T USUALLY END JUST

  • IF IT'S BEHAVIOURAL, THEN IT DOESN'T USUALLY END JUST INSTANTLY.

  • DOESN'T USUALLY END JUST INSTANTLY.

  • DOESN'T USUALLY END JUST INSTANTLY. >> YOU'VE CLEARLY LEFT THE DOOR

  • INSTANTLY. >> YOU'VE CLEARLY LEFT THE DOOR

  • INSTANTLY. >> YOU'VE CLEARLY LEFT THE DOOR OPEN TO A POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN

  • >> YOU'VE CLEARLY LEFT THE DOOR OPEN TO A POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN

  • >> YOU'VE CLEARLY LEFT THE DOOR OPEN TO A POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE.

  • OPEN TO A POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE.

  • OPEN TO A POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE. I'M WONDERING, THOUGH, IF IT'S

  • THE FUTURE. I'M WONDERING, THOUGH, IF IT'S

  • THE FUTURE. I'M WONDERING, THOUGH, IF IT'S THE RIGHT TIME TO BE CONSIDERING

  • I'M WONDERING, THOUGH, IF IT'S THE RIGHT TIME TO BE CONSIDERING

  • I'M WONDERING, THOUGH, IF IT'S THE RIGHT TIME TO BE CONSIDERING A CUT GIVEN THAT THERE'S THIS

  • THE RIGHT TIME TO BE CONSIDERING A CUT GIVEN THAT THERE'S THIS

  • THE RIGHT TIME TO BE CONSIDERING A CUT GIVEN THAT THERE'S THIS UNEXPECTED UPTICK IN THE HOUSING

  • A CUT GIVEN THAT THERE'S THIS UNEXPECTED UPTICK IN THE HOUSING

  • A CUT GIVEN THAT THERE'S THIS UNEXPECTED UPTICK IN THE HOUSING MARK

  • UNEXPECTED UPTICK IN THE HOUSING MARK

  • UNEXPECTED UPTICK IN THE HOUSING MARK >> AS YOU KNOW, THE TARGET FOR

  • MARK >> AS YOU KNOW, THE TARGET FOR

  • MARK >> AS YOU KNOW, THE TARGET FOR INFLATION IS IT 2% AND THAT IS

  • >> AS YOU KNOW, THE TARGET FOR INFLATION IS IT 2% AND THAT IS

  • >> AS YOU KNOW, THE TARGET FOR INFLATION IS IT 2% AND THAT IS OUR TARGET.

  • INFLATION IS IT 2% AND THAT IS OUR TARGET.

  • INFLATION IS IT 2% AND THAT IS OUR TARGET. BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, IT HAS TO

  • OUR TARGET. BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, IT HAS TO

  • OUR TARGET. BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, IT HAS TO BE A FORWARD LOOKING EXERCISE

  • BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, IT HAS TO BE A FORWARD LOOKING EXERCISE

  • BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, IT HAS TO BE A FORWARD LOOKING EXERCISE WHERE DID HIS NOT -- IT HELPS TO

  • BE A FORWARD LOOKING EXERCISE WHERE DID HIS NOT -- IT HELPS TO

  • BE A FORWARD LOOKING EXERCISE WHERE DID HIS NOT -- IT HELPS TO KNOW THAT INFLATION'S THE 2

  • WHERE DID HIS NOT -- IT HELPS TO KNOW THAT INFLATION'S THE 2

  • WHERE DID HIS NOT -- IT HELPS TO KNOW THAT INFLATION'S THE 2 TODAY BECAUSE THAT GIVES US A

  • KNOW THAT INFLATION'S THE 2 TODAY BECAUSE THAT GIVES US A

  • KNOW THAT INFLATION'S THE 2 TODAY BECAUSE THAT GIVES US A GOOD STARTING POINT.

  • TODAY BECAUSE THAT GIVES US A GOOD STARTING POINT.

  • TODAY BECAUSE THAT GIVES US A GOOD STARTING POINT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THERE

  • GOOD STARTING POINT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THERE

  • GOOD STARTING POINT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THERE ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN.

  • AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THERE ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN.

  • AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THERE ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN. WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC BOTH,

  • ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN. WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC BOTH,

  • ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN. WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC BOTH, WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, WE SEE A

  • WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC BOTH, WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, WE SEE A

  • WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC BOTH, WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, WE SEE A REBOUND COMING.

  • WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, WE SEE A REBOUND COMING.

  • WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, WE SEE A REBOUND COMING. WE DON'T THINK THAT THE WEAKNESS

  • REBOUND COMING. WE DON'T THINK THAT THE WEAKNESS

  • REBOUND COMING. WE DON'T THINK THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE MIXED DATA THAT WE SAW

  • WE DON'T THINK THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE MIXED DATA THAT WE SAW

  • WE DON'T THINK THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE MIXED DATA THAT WE SAW LATER LAST YEAR IS GOING TO BE

  • IN THE MIXED DATA THAT WE SAW LATER LAST YEAR IS GOING TO BE

  • IN THE MIXED DATA THAT WE SAW LATER LAST YEAR IS GOING TO BE PERSISTENT.

  • LATER LAST YEAR IS GOING TO BE PERSISTENT.

  • LATER LAST YEAR IS GOING TO BE PERSISTENT. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE

  • PERSISTENT. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE

  • PERSISTENT. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THAT.

  • BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THAT.

  • BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THAT. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S THIS

  • CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THAT. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S THIS

  • CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THAT. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S THIS TRADEOFF THAT YOU MENTIONED

  • AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S THIS TRADEOFF THAT YOU MENTIONED

  • AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S THIS TRADEOFF THAT YOU MENTIONED ABOUT VULNERABILITIES.

  • TRADEOFF THAT YOU MENTIONED ABOUT VULNERABILITIES.

  • TRADEOFF THAT YOU MENTIONED ABOUT VULNERABILITIES. WHAT THOSE REALLY ARE WITH

  • ABOUT VULNERABILITIES. WHAT THOSE REALLY ARE WITH

  • ABOUT VULNERABILITIES. WHAT THOSE REALLY ARE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WE THINK OR HOW

  • WHAT THOSE REALLY ARE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WE THINK OR HOW

  • WHAT THOSE REALLY ARE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WE THINK OR HOW WELL WE THINK WE CAN CONTROL

  • RESPECT TO WHERE WE THINK OR HOW WELL WE THINK WE CAN CONTROL

  • RESPECT TO WHERE WE THINK OR HOW WELL WE THINK WE CAN CONTROL INFLATION IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE

  • WELL WE THINK WE CAN CONTROL INFLATION IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE

  • WELL WE THINK WE CAN CONTROL INFLATION IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE IF WE CONTRIBUTE TO HOUSEHOLD

  • INFLATION IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE IF WE CONTRIBUTE TO HOUSEHOLD

  • INFLATION IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE IF WE CONTRIBUTE TO HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES, WE'RE MORE THAN

  • IF WE CONTRIBUTE TO HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES, WE'RE MORE THAN

  • IF WE CONTRIBUTE TO HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES, WE'RE MORE THAN AY.

  • VULNERABILITIES, WE'RE MORE THAN AY.

  • VULNERABILITIES, WE'RE MORE THAN AY. THAT COULD MEAN FURTHER DOWN THE

  • AY. THAT COULD MEAN FURTHER DOWN THE

  • AY. THAT COULD MEAN FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD, IF WE HAVE WHEN THEY GOT

  • THAT COULD MEAN FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD, IF WE HAVE WHEN THEY GOT

  • THAT COULD MEAN FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD, IF WE HAVE WHEN THEY GOT SOMETHING SLOW, WE COULD BE IN A

  • ROAD, IF WE HAVE WHEN THEY GOT SOMETHING SLOW, WE COULD BE IN A

  • ROAD, IF WE HAVE WHEN THEY GOT SOMETHING SLOW, WE COULD BE IN A TOUGH POSITION ACHIEVING MUCH

  • SOMETHING SLOW, WE COULD BE IN A TOUGH POSITION ACHIEVING MUCH

  • SOMETHING SLOW, WE COULD BE IN A TOUGH POSITION ACHIEVING MUCH FURTHER AWAY.

  • TOUGH POSITION ACHIEVING MUCH FURTHER AWAY.

  • TOUGH POSITION ACHIEVING MUCH FURTHER AWAY. WE HAD TO BALANCE THAT, GETTING

  • FURTHER AWAY. WE HAD TO BALANCE THAT, GETTING

  • FURTHER AWAY. WE HAD TO BALANCE THAT, GETTING OUR INFLATION BANG ON TODAY.

  • WE HAD TO BALANCE THAT, GETTING OUR INFLATION BANG ON TODAY.

  • WE HAD TO BALANCE THAT, GETTING OUR INFLATION BANG ON TODAY. ONE THING WITH VULNERABILITIES,

  • OUR INFLATION BANG ON TODAY. ONE THING WITH VULNERABILITIES,

  • OUR INFLATION BANG ON TODAY. ONE THING WITH VULNERABILITIES, IS THAT WE DO SEE THAT THEY HAVE

  • ONE THING WITH VULNERABILITIES, IS THAT WE DO SEE THAT THEY HAVE

  • ONE THING WITH VULNERABILITIES, IS THAT WE DO SEE THAT THEY HAVE HOUSING MARKET.

  • IS THAT WE DO SEE THAT THEY HAVE HOUSING MARKET.

  • IS THAT WE DO SEE THAT THEY HAVE HOUSING MARKET. WE DON'T SEE WE SEE MORE SAVINGS

  • HOUSING MARKET. WE DON'T SEE WE SEE MORE SAVINGS

  • HOUSING MARKET. WE DON'T SEE WE SEE MORE SAVINGS THAN WE THOUGHT.

  • WE DON'T SEE WE SEE MORE SAVINGS THAN WE THOUGHT.

  • WE DON'T SEE WE SEE MORE SAVINGS THAN WE THOUGHT. AGAIN, THAT'S IMPORTANT

  • THAN WE THOUGHT. AGAIN, THAT'S IMPORTANT

  • THAN WE THOUGHT. AGAIN, THAT'S IMPORTANT INFORMATION.

  • AGAIN, THAT'S IMPORTANT INFORMATION.

  • AGAIN, THAT'S IMPORTANT INFORMATION. THESE TRADEOFFS ARE SOMETHING

  • INFORMATION. THESE TRADEOFFS ARE SOMETHING

  • INFORMATION. THESE TRADEOFFS ARE SOMETHING THEY'RE CAST IN STONE.

  • THESE TRADEOFFS ARE SOMETHING THEY'RE CAST IN STONE.

  • THESE TRADEOFFS ARE SOMETHING THEY'RE CAST IN STONE. SOMETHING TO CHANGE OVER TIME.

  • THEY'RE CAST IN STONE. SOMETHING TO CHANGE OVER TIME.

  • THEY'RE CAST IN STONE. SOMETHING TO CHANGE OVER TIME. THE DATA ON THE ECONOMY.

  • SOMETHING TO CHANGE OVER TIME. THE DATA ON THE ECONOMY.

  • SOMETHING TO CHANGE OVER TIME. THE DATA ON THE ECONOMY. >> GOING TO HEALTHER AND GLORIA.

  • THE DATA ON THE ECONOMY. >> GOING TO HEALTHER AND GLORIA.

  • THE DATA ON THE ECONOMY. >> GOING TO HEALTHER AND GLORIA. >> GOOD MORNING.

  • >> GOING TO HEALTHER AND GLORIA. >> GOOD MORNING.

  • >> GOING TO HEALTHER AND GLORIA. >> GOOD MORNING. WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE

  • >> GOOD MORNING. WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE

  • >> GOOD MORNING. WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE BIGGER RISK OUT THERE, CONSUMER

  • WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE BIGGER RISK OUT THERE, CONSUMER

  • WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE BIGGER RISK OUT THERE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE FACT THAT

  • BIGGER RISK OUT THERE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE FACT THAT

  • BIGGER RISK OUT THERE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE FACT THAT THERE'S IT COULD BE RATIFIED

  • CONFIDENCE AND THE FACT THAT THERE'S IT COULD BE RATIFIED

  • CONFIDENCE AND THE FACT THAT THERE'S IT COULD BE RATIFIED INLINE AND U.S. BUT WE'VE GOT

  • THERE'S IT COULD BE RATIFIED INLINE AND U.S. BUT WE'VE GOT

  • THERE'S IT COULD BE RATIFIED INLINE AND U.S. BUT WE'VE GOT MIDDLE EAST ON THE RISE,OFF SET

  • INLINE AND U.S. BUT WE'VE GOT MIDDLE EAST ON THE RISE,OFF SET

  • INLINE AND U.S. BUT WE'VE GOT MIDDLE EAST ON THE RISE,OFF SET EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF TURMOIL.

  • MIDDLE EAST ON THE RISE,OFF SET EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF TURMOIL.

  • MIDDLE EAST ON THE RISE,OFF SET EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF TURMOIL. >> WELL, YOU WOULD NOTICE RISK

  • EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF TURMOIL. >> WELL, YOU WOULD NOTICE RISK

  • EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF TURMOIL. >> WELL, YOU WOULD NOTICE RISK AND ASSESSMENT ARE BACK.

  • >> WELL, YOU WOULD NOTICE RISK AND ASSESSMENT ARE BACK.

  • >> WELL, YOU WOULD NOTICE RISK AND ASSESSMENT ARE BACK. AND THE TRADE SIDE WAS IN THE

  • AND ASSESSMENT ARE BACK. AND THE TRADE SIDE WAS IN THE

  • AND ASSESSMENT ARE BACK. AND THE TRADE SIDE WAS IN THE WHAT WE CALL THE ATTIC OR THE

  • AND THE TRADE SIDE WAS IN THE WHAT WE CALL THE ATTIC OR THE

  • AND THE TRADE SIDE WAS IN THE WHAT WE CALL THE ATTIC OR THE TOP PART OF THE RISK.

  • WHAT WE CALL THE ATTIC OR THE TOP PART OF THE RISK.

  • WHAT WE CALL THE ATTIC OR THE TOP PART OF THE RISK. TO TAKE ALL THAT RISK INTO THE

  • TOP PART OF THE RISK. TO TAKE ALL THAT RISK INTO THE

  • TOP PART OF THE RISK. TO TAKE ALL THAT RISK INTO THE FORECAST.

  • TO TAKE ALL THAT RISK INTO THE FORECAST.

  • TO TAKE ALL THAT RISK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF

  • FORECAST. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF

  • FORECAST. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THE FORECASTER'S JOB WHICH

  • THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THE FORECASTER'S JOB WHICH

  • THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THE FORECASTER'S JOB WHICH PRESENTS US A BALANCED FORECAST

  • THE FORECASTER'S JOB WHICH PRESENTS US A BALANCED FORECAST

  • THE FORECASTER'S JOB WHICH PRESENTS US A BALANCED FORECAST ONE IN WHICH THAT'S UP SIDE AND

  • PRESENTS US A BALANCED FORECAST ONE IN WHICH THAT'S UP SIDE AND

  • PRESENTS US A BALANCED FORECAST ONE IN WHICH THAT'S UP SIDE AND DOWN SIDE.

  • ONE IN WHICH THAT'S UP SIDE AND DOWN SIDE.

  • ONE IN WHICH THAT'S UP SIDE AND DOWN SIDE. CERTAIN RISKS ARE HARD TO

  • DOWN SIDE. CERTAIN RISKS ARE HARD TO

  • DOWN SIDE. CERTAIN RISKS ARE HARD TO IDENTIFY OR MEASURE THEIR IMPACT

  • CERTAIN RISKS ARE HARD TO IDENTIFY OR MEASURE THEIR IMPACT

  • CERTAIN RISKS ARE HARD TO IDENTIFY OR MEASURE THEIR IMPACT OR TO PREDICT HOW THEY MIGHT

  • IDENTIFY OR MEASURE THEIR IMPACT OR TO PREDICT HOW THEY MIGHT

  • IDENTIFY OR MEASURE THEIR IMPACT OR TO PREDICT HOW THEY MIGHT SHOW UP.

  • OR TO PREDICT HOW THEY MIGHT SHOW UP.

  • OR TO PREDICT HOW THEY MIGHT SHOW UP. WE CALL THEM FELL RISK AND IS IF

  • SHOW UP. WE CALL THEM FELL RISK AND IS IF

  • SHOW UP. WE CALL THEM FELL RISK AND IS IF THEY CAME, YOU WOULD HAVE TO

  • WE CALL THEM FELL RISK AND IS IF THEY CAME, YOU WOULD HAVE TO

  • WE CALL THEM FELL RISK AND IS IF THEY CAME, YOU WOULD HAVE TO REWRITE YOUR WHOLE FORECAST.

  • THEY CAME, YOU WOULD HAVE TO REWRITE YOUR WHOLE FORECAST.

  • THEY CAME, YOU WOULD HAVE TO REWRITE YOUR WHOLE FORECAST. SO THEY'RE KIND OF EXCLUDED FROM

  • REWRITE YOUR WHOLE FORECAST. SO THEY'RE KIND OF EXCLUDED FROM

  • REWRITE YOUR WHOLE FORECAST. SO THEY'RE KIND OF EXCLUDED FROM THAT BALANCE.

  • SO THEY'RE KIND OF EXCLUDED FROM THAT BALANCE.

  • SO THEY'RE KIND OF EXCLUDED FROM THAT BALANCE. THAT'S WHERE TRADE WAS BEFORE.

  • THAT BALANCE. THAT'S WHERE TRADE WAS BEFORE.

  • THAT BALANCE. THAT'S WHERE TRADE WAS BEFORE. WHAT WE'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT,

  • THAT'S WHERE TRADE WAS BEFORE. WHAT WE'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT,

  • THAT'S WHERE TRADE WAS BEFORE. WHAT WE'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT, OKAY, NOW WE'VE SEEN SOME

  • WHAT WE'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT, OKAY, NOW WE'VE SEEN SOME

  • WHAT WE'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT, OKAY, NOW WE'VE SEEN SOME MEANINGFUL PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY

  • OKAY, NOW WE'VE SEEN SOME MEANINGFUL PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY

  • OKAY, NOW WE'VE SEEN SOME MEANINGFUL PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MAIN CHANNEL BY WHICH

  • MEANINGFUL PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MAIN CHANNEL BY WHICH

  • MEANINGFUL PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MAIN CHANNEL BY WHICH ALL THIS TURMOIL ON THE TRADE

  • SINCE THE MAIN CHANNEL BY WHICH ALL THIS TURMOIL ON THE TRADE

  • SINCE THE MAIN CHANNEL BY WHICH ALL THIS TURMOIL ON THE TRADE FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING US IS

  • ALL THIS TURMOIL ON THE TRADE FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING US IS

  • ALL THIS TURMOIL ON THE TRADE FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING US IS -- AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO, IS

  • FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING US IS -- AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO, IS

  • FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING US IS -- AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO, IS THROUGH THE INVESTMENT CHANNEL.

  • -- AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO, IS THROUGH THE INVESTMENT CHANNEL.

  • -- AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO, IS THROUGH THE INVESTMENT CHANNEL. NOT SO MUCH ABOUT TRADE, FACT

  • THROUGH THE INVESTMENT CHANNEL. NOT SO MUCH ABOUT TRADE, FACT

  • THROUGH THE INVESTMENT CHANNEL. NOT SO MUCH ABOUT TRADE, FACT THAT TRADE INDICATORS HAVE

  • NOT SO MUCH ABOUT TRADE, FACT THAT TRADE INDICATORS HAVE

  • NOT SO MUCH ABOUT TRADE, FACT THAT TRADE INDICATORS HAVE SLOWED A LOT, IT'S MAINLY

  • THAT TRADE INDICATORS HAVE SLOWED A LOT, IT'S MAINLY

  • THAT TRADE INDICATORS HAVE SLOWED A LOT, IT'S MAINLY BECAUSE INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED A

  • SLOWED A LOT, IT'S MAINLY BECAUSE INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED A

  • SLOWED A LOT, IT'S MAINLY BECAUSE INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED A LO

  • BECAUSE INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED A LO

  • BECAUSE INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED A LO AND INVESTMENT IS A HIGHLY

  • LO AND INVESTMENT IS A HIGHLY

  • LO AND INVESTMENT IS A HIGHLY TRADE-DEPENDENT ACTIVITY.

  • AND INVESTMENT IS A HIGHLY TRADE-DEPENDENT ACTIVITY.

  • AND INVESTMENT IS A HIGHLY TRADE-DEPENDENT ACTIVITY. CAPITAL GOODS CROSSING THE

  • TRADE-DEPENDENT ACTIVITY. CAPITAL GOODS CROSSING THE

  • TRADE-DEPENDENT ACTIVITY. CAPITAL GOODS CROSSING THE GLOBE.

  • CAPITAL GOODS CROSSING THE GLOBE.

  • CAPITAL GOODS CROSSING THE GLOBE. SO THEY GO HAND IN HAND.

  • GLOBE. SO THEY GO HAND IN HAND.

  • GLOBE. SO THEY GO HAND IN HAND. SO THE REST HAS BEEN SORT OF

  • SO THEY GO HAND IN HAND. SO THE REST HAS BEEN SORT OF

  • SO THEY GO HAND IN HAND. SO THE REST HAS BEEN SORT OF MORE TRADE DISTORTING.

  • SO THE REST HAS BEEN SORT OF MORE TRADE DISTORTING.

  • SO THE REST HAS BEEN SORT OF MORE TRADE DISTORTING. SETTING THAT ASIDE THEN, WE

  • MORE TRADE DISTORTING. SETTING THAT ASIDE THEN, WE

  • MORE TRADE DISTORTING. SETTING THAT ASIDE THEN, WE THINK NOW WE CAN MANAGE THAT

  • SETTING THAT ASIDE THEN, WE THINK NOW WE CAN MANAGE THAT

  • SETTING THAT ASIDE THEN, WE THINK NOW WE CAN MANAGE THAT RISK WITHIN OUR RISK ASSESSMENT.

  • THINK NOW WE CAN MANAGE THAT RISK WITHIN OUR RISK ASSESSMENT.

  • THINK NOW WE CAN MANAGE THAT RISK WITHIN OUR RISK ASSESSMENT. THE ONE THING THAT WE COULDN'T

  • RISK WITHIN OUR RISK ASSESSMENT. THE ONE THING THAT WE COULDN'T

  • RISK WITHIN OUR RISK ASSESSMENT. THE ONE THING THAT WE COULDN'T REALLY MANAGE IS THIS INCREASED,

  • THE ONE THING THAT WE COULDN'T REALLY MANAGE IS THIS INCREASED,

  • THE ONE THING THAT WE COULDN'T REALLY MANAGE IS THIS INCREASED, I GUESS, RISK OR INCREASED

  • REALLY MANAGE IS THIS INCREASED, I GUESS, RISK OR INCREASED

  • REALLY MANAGE IS THIS INCREASED, I GUESS, RISK OR INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEVELOPMENTS

  • I GUESS, RISK OR INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEVELOPMENTS

  • I GUESS, RISK OR INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

  • IN THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

  • IN THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR OUR

  • IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR OUR

  • IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST.

  • AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST.

  • AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST. THAT GOES INTO THE RISKS AND IS

  • FORECAST. THAT GOES INTO THE RISKS AND IS

  • FORECAST. THAT GOES INTO THE RISKS AND IS NOT COUNTERED IN THE FORECAST.

  • THAT GOES INTO THE RISKS AND IS NOT COUNTERED IN THE FORECAST.

  • THAT GOES INTO THE RISKS AND IS NOT COUNTERED IN THE FORECAST. QUICK ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION

  • NOT COUNTERED IN THE FORECAST. QUICK ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION

  • NOT COUNTERED IN THE FORECAST. QUICK ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION IS, NO, THEY AREN'T OFFSIDE AT

  • QUICK ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION IS, NO, THEY AREN'T OFFSIDE AT

  • QUICK ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION IS, NO, THEY AREN'T OFFSIDE AT ALL.

  • IS, NO, THEY AREN'T OFFSIDE AT ALL.

  • IS, NO, THEY AREN'T OFFSIDE AT ALL. THEY CAN'T REALLY BE QUANTIFIED

  • ALL. THEY CAN'T REALLY BE QUANTIFIED

  • ALL. THEY CAN'T REALLY BE QUANTIFIED IN A WAY THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU TO

  • THEY CAN'T REALLY BE QUANTIFIED IN A WAY THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU TO

  • THEY CAN'T REALLY BE QUANTIFIED IN A WAY THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU TO DO THAT.

  • IN A WAY THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU TO DO THAT.

  • IN A WAY THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU TO DO THAT. BUT WE DO THINK THAT THE

  • DO THAT. BUT WE DO THINK THAT THE

  • DO THAT. BUT WE DO THINK THAT THE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE.

  • BUT WE DO THINK THAT THE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE.

  • BUT WE DO THINK THAT THE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE. WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO SEE NOW

  • PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE. WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO SEE NOW

  • PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE. WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO SEE NOW SOME RESPONSE FROM INVESTMENT.

  • WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO SEE NOW SOME RESPONSE FROM INVESTMENT.

  • WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO SEE NOW SOME RESPONSE FROM INVESTMENT. OUR BOSS TELLS US THAT COMPANIES

  • SOME RESPONSE FROM INVESTMENT. OUR BOSS TELLS US THAT COMPANIES

  • SOME RESPONSE FROM INVESTMENT. OUR BOSS TELLS US THAT COMPANIES IN CANADA ARE VERY READY, HAVE

  • OUR BOSS TELLS US THAT COMPANIES IN CANADA ARE VERY READY, HAVE

  • OUR BOSS TELLS US THAT COMPANIES IN CANADA ARE VERY READY, HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME, TO INVEST.

  • IN CANADA ARE VERY READY, HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME, TO INVEST.

  • IN CANADA ARE VERY READY, HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME, TO INVEST. AND THAT THE BIG THING HOLDING

  • BEEN FOR SOME TIME, TO INVEST. AND THAT THE BIG THING HOLDING

  • BEEN FOR SOME TIME, TO INVEST. AND THAT THE BIG THING HOLDING THEM BACK HAS BEEN THE

  • AND THAT THE BIG THING HOLDING THEM BACK HAS BEEN THE

  • AND THAT THE BIG THING HOLDING THEM BACK HAS BEEN THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FUTURE OF

  • THEM BACK HAS BEEN THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FUTURE OF

  • THEM BACK HAS BEEN THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FUTURE OF NAFTA/KUZMA, SO IF WE CAN GET

  • UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FUTURE OF NAFTA/KUZMA, SO IF WE CAN GET

  • UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FUTURE OF NAFTA/KUZMA, SO IF WE CAN GET THAT RATIFICATION DONE, I THINK

  • NAFTA/KUZMA, SO IF WE CAN GET THAT RATIFICATION DONE, I THINK

  • NAFTA/KUZMA, SO IF WE CAN GET THAT RATIFICATION DONE, I THINK THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A

  • THAT RATIFICATION DONE, I THINK THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A

  • THAT RATIFICATION DONE, I THINK THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO

  • THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO

  • THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO INVESTMENT IN CANADA.

  • MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO INVESTMENT IN CANADA.

  • MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO INVESTMENT IN CANADA. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT

  • INVESTMENT IN CANADA. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT

  • INVESTMENT IN CANADA. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SLIGHTLY IN OUR OUTLOOK.

  • WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SLIGHTLY IN OUR OUTLOOK.

  • WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SLIGHTLY IN OUR OUTLOOK. WE'RE NOT ASSUMING IT'S GOING TO

  • SLIGHTLY IN OUR OUTLOOK. WE'RE NOT ASSUMING IT'S GOING TO

  • SLIGHTLY IN OUR OUTLOOK. WE'RE NOT ASSUMING IT'S GOING TO SUDDENLY BE GREAT.

  • WE'RE NOT ASSUMING IT'S GOING TO SUDDENLY BE GREAT.

  • WE'RE NOT ASSUMING IT'S GOING TO SUDDENLY BE GREAT. BUT IF YOU LOOK, THERE'S A CHART

  • SUDDENLY BE GREAT. BUT IF YOU LOOK, THERE'S A CHART

  • SUDDENLY BE GREAT. BUT IF YOU LOOK, THERE'S A CHART IN THERE, I FORGET THE NUMBER OF

  • BUT IF YOU LOOK, THERE'S A CHART IN THERE, I FORGET THE NUMBER OF

  • BUT IF YOU LOOK, THERE'S A CHART IN THERE, I FORGET THE NUMBER OF THAT CHART.

  • IN THERE, I FORGET THE NUMBER OF THAT CHART.

  • IN THERE, I FORGET THE NUMBER OF THAT CHART. ANYWAY, THE ONE WHICH SHOWS

  • THAT CHART. ANYWAY, THE ONE WHICH SHOWS

  • THAT CHART. ANYWAY, THE ONE WHICH SHOWS INVESTMENT, WHAT IT WILL LOOK

  • ANYWAY, THE ONE WHICH SHOWS INVESTMENT, WHAT IT WILL LOOK

  • ANYWAY, THE ONE WHICH SHOWS INVESTMENT, WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE ON OUR MODEL, BASED ON WHAT

  • INVESTMENT, WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE ON OUR MODEL, BASED ON WHAT

  • INVESTMENT, WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE ON OUR MODEL, BASED ON WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW.

  • LIKE ON OUR MODEL, BASED ON WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW.

  • LIKE ON OUR MODEL, BASED ON WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW. THAT GAP IS PROPOSING $10

  • IT LOOKS LIKE NOW. THAT GAP IS PROPOSING $10

  • IT LOOKS LIKE NOW. THAT GAP IS PROPOSING $10 BILLION.

  • THAT GAP IS PROPOSING $10 BILLION.

  • THAT GAP IS PROPOSING $10 BILLION. THAT'S A LOT OF EXTRA KICK OF UP

  • BILLION. THAT'S A LOT OF EXTRA KICK OF UP

  • BILLION. THAT'S A LOT OF EXTRA KICK OF UP SIDE POTENTIAL THAT'S AVAILABLE

  • THAT'S A LOT OF EXTRA KICK OF UP SIDE POTENTIAL THAT'S AVAILABLE

  • THAT'S A LOT OF EXTRA KICK OF UP SIDE POTENTIAL THAT'S AVAILABLE BUT SOME OF THOSE INVESTMENT

  • SIDE POTENTIAL THAT'S AVAILABLE BUT SOME OF THOSE INVESTMENT

  • SIDE POTENTIAL THAT'S AVAILABLE BUT SOME OF THOSE INVESTMENT DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE

  • BUT SOME OF THOSE INVESTMENT DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE

  • BUT SOME OF THOSE INVESTMENT DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE SO THEY WON'T COME BACK TO THEM.

  • DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE SO THEY WON'T COME BACK TO THEM.

  • DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE SO THEY WON'T COME BACK TO THEM. IT'S JUST -- THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T

  • SO THEY WON'T COME BACK TO THEM. IT'S JUST -- THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T

  • SO THEY WON'T COME BACK TO THEM. IT'S JUST -- THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T ASSUME THAT WE JUST SUDDENLY GET

  • IT'S JUST -- THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T ASSUME THAT WE JUST SUDDENLY GET

  • IT'S JUST -- THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T ASSUME THAT WE JUST SUDDENLY GET THERE.

  • ASSUME THAT WE JUST SUDDENLY GET THERE.

  • ASSUME THAT WE JUST SUDDENLY GET THERE. BUT IT REPRESENTS THE POTENTIAL

  • THERE. BUT IT REPRESENTS THE POTENTIAL

  • THERE. BUT IT REPRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSIDE RISK IN THE OUTLOOK

  • BUT IT REPRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSIDE RISK IN THE OUTLOOK

  • BUT IT REPRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSIDE RISK IN THE OUTLOOK WHENEVER IT SHOWS UP.

  • FOR UPSIDE RISK IN THE OUTLOOK WHENEVER IT SHOWS UP.

  • FOR UPSIDE RISK IN THE OUTLOOK WHENEVER IT SHOWS UP. >> Question: I NOTICE THERE'S

  • WHENEVER IT SHOWS UP. >> Question: I NOTICE THERE'S

  • WHENEVER IT SHOWS UP. >> Question: I NOTICE THERE'S SOME STOCK MARKET REACTION TO

  • >> Question: I NOTICE THERE'S SOME STOCK MARKET REACTION TO

  • >> Question: I NOTICE THERE'S SOME STOCK MARKET REACTION TO THE CORONAVIRUS.

  • SOME STOCK MARKET REACTION TO THE CORONAVIRUS.

  • SOME STOCK MARKET REACTION TO THE CORONAVIRUS. IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR IN TERMS

  • THE CORONAVIRUS. IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR IN TERMS

  • THE CORONAVIRUS. IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR IN TERMS OF RISKS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR

  • IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR IN TERMS OF RISKS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR

  • IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR IN TERMS OF RISKS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR ECONOMY SOMEHOW GOING FORWARD?

  • OF RISKS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR ECONOMY SOMEHOW GOING FORWARD?

  • OF RISKS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR ECONOMY SOMEHOW GOING FORWARD? >> WELL, WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK

  • ECONOMY SOMEHOW GOING FORWARD? >> WELL, WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK

  • ECONOMY SOMEHOW GOING FORWARD? >> WELL, WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK AT THAT.

  • >> WELL, WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK AT THAT.

  • >> WELL, WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK AT THAT. FIRST AND FOREMOST, IT'S A

  • AT THAT. FIRST AND FOREMOST, IT'S A

  • AT THAT. FIRST AND FOREMOST, IT'S A TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR PEOPLE WHO

  • FIRST AND FOREMOST, IT'S A TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR PEOPLE WHO

  • FIRST AND FOREMOST, IT'S A TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE AFFECTED.

  • TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE AFFECTED.

  • TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE AFFECTED. JUST RECALL, ROLL THINGS BACK TO

  • ARE AFFECTED. JUST RECALL, ROLL THINGS BACK TO

  • ARE AFFECTED. JUST RECALL, ROLL THINGS BACK TO 2003, WHEN WE HAD THE SARS

  • JUST RECALL, ROLL THINGS BACK TO 2003, WHEN WE HAD THE SARS

  • JUST RECALL, ROLL THINGS BACK TO 2003, WHEN WE HAD THE SARS OUTBREAK, WE HAD EXPERIENCED

  • 2003, WHEN WE HAD THE SARS OUTBREAK, WE HAD EXPERIENCED

  • 2003, WHEN WE HAD THE SARS OUTBREAK, WE HAD EXPERIENCED THEN TRYING TO WORK OUT HOW THAT

  • OUTBREAK, WE HAD EXPERIENCED THEN TRYING TO WORK OUT HOW THAT

  • OUTBREAK, WE HAD EXPERIENCED THEN TRYING TO WORK OUT HOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE ECONOMY.

  • THEN TRYING TO WORK OUT HOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE ECONOMY.

  • THEN TRYING TO WORK OUT HOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE ECONOMY. EACH OF THESE EPISODES ARE

  • MIGHT AFFECT THE ECONOMY. EACH OF THESE EPISODES ARE

  • MIGHT AFFECT THE ECONOMY. EACH OF THESE EPISODES ARE DIFFERENT.

  • EACH OF THESE EPISODES ARE DIFFERENT.

  • EACH OF THESE EPISODES ARE DIFFERENT. BUT I JUST POINTED TO THAT

  • DIFFERENT. BUT I JUST POINTED TO THAT

  • DIFFERENT. BUT I JUST POINTED TO THAT BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT

  • BUT I JUST POINTED TO THAT BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT

  • BUT I JUST POINTED TO THAT BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT UNFORTUNATELY HAS HAPPENED

  • BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT UNFORTUNATELY HAS HAPPENED

  • BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT UNFORTUNATELY HAS HAPPENED BEFORE IN SIMILAR WAY AND IT

  • UNFORTUNATELY HAS HAPPENED BEFORE IN SIMILAR WAY AND IT

  • UNFORTUNATELY HAS HAPPENED BEFORE IN SIMILAR WAY AND IT TENDS TO AFFECT AREAS LIKE

  • BEFORE IN SIMILAR WAY AND IT TENDS TO AFFECT AREAS LIKE

  • BEFORE IN SIMILAR WAY AND IT TENDS TO AFFECT AREAS LIKE RETAIL.

  • TENDS TO AFFECT AREAS LIKE RETAIL.

  • TENDS TO AFFECT AREAS LIKE RETAIL. PEOPLE DON'T GO OUT.

  • RETAIL. PEOPLE DON'T GO OUT.

  • RETAIL. PEOPLE DON'T GO OUT. THEY DON'T FLY IN PLANES.

  • PEOPLE DON'T GO OUT. THEY DON'T FLY IN PLANES.

  • PEOPLE DON'T GO OUT. THEY DON'T FLY IN PLANES. THEY DON'T USE TOURISM TO THE

  • THEY DON'T FLY IN PLANES. THEY DON'T USE TOURISM TO THE

  • THEY DON'T FLY IN PLANES. THEY DON'T USE TOURISM TO THE AFFECTED AREAS, SO THAT'S THE

  • THEY DON'T USE TOURISM TO THE AFFECTED AREAS, SO THAT'S THE

  • THEY DON'T USE TOURISM TO THE AFFECTED AREAS, SO THAT'S THE KIND OF THING THAT WE WOULD BE

  • AFFECTED AREAS, SO THAT'S THE KIND OF THING THAT WE WOULD BE

  • AFFECTED AREAS, SO THAT'S THE KIND OF THING THAT WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT IF THIS CURRENT

  • KIND OF THING THAT WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT IF THIS CURRENT

  • KIND OF THING THAT WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT IF THIS CURRENT EPISODE JUST BECOMES MORE

  • LOOKING AT IF THIS CURRENT EPISODE JUST BECOMES MORE

  • LOOKING AT IF THIS CURRENT EPISODE JUST BECOMES MORE PROMINENT IN CANADA AND NORTH

  • EPISODE JUST BECOMES MORE PROMINENT IN CANADA AND NORTH

  • EPISODE JUST BECOMES MORE PROMINENT IN CANADA AND NORTH AMERICA.

  • PROMINENT IN CANADA AND NORTH AMERICA.

  • PROMINENT IN CANADA AND NORTH AMERICA. >> GLORIA?

  • AMERICA. >> GLORIA?

  • AMERICA. >> GLORIA? >> Question: GLORIA GALLOWAY.

  • >> GLORIA? >> Question: GLORIA GALLOWAY.

  • >> GLORIA? >> Question: GLORIA GALLOWAY. WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE WORD

  • >> Question: GLORIA GALLOWAY. WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE WORD

  • >> Question: GLORIA GALLOWAY. WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE WORD "APPROPRIATE" TO DESCRIBE THE

  • WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE WORD "APPROPRIATE" TO DESCRIBE THE

  • WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE WORD "APPROPRIATE" TO DESCRIBE THE KEY RATE, IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT

  • "APPROPRIATE" TO DESCRIBE THE KEY RATE, IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT

  • "APPROPRIATE" TO DESCRIBE THE KEY RATE, IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT THE BANK IS PRIMING MARKETS FOR

  • KEY RATE, IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT THE BANK IS PRIMING MARKETS FOR

  • KEY RATE, IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT THE BANK IS PRIMING MARKETS FOR A RATE CHANGE AND IF SO, DOES

  • THE BANK IS PRIMING MARKETS FOR A RATE CHANGE AND IF SO, DOES

  • THE BANK IS PRIMING MARKETS FOR A RATE CHANGE AND IF SO, DOES KURT ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A RATE

  • A RATE CHANGE AND IF SO, DOES KURT ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A RATE

  • A RATE CHANGE AND IF SO, DOES KURT ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A RATE CHANGE WOULD BE UP OR DOWN GOING

  • KURT ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A RATE CHANGE WOULD BE UP OR DOWN GOING

  • KURT ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A RATE CHANGE WOULD BE UP OR DOWN GOING ON INTO THE FUTURE?

  • CHANGE WOULD BE UP OR DOWN GOING ON INTO THE FUTURE?

  • CHANGE WOULD BE UP OR DOWN GOING ON INTO THE FUTURE? >> WELL, JUST WITH RESPECT TO

  • ON INTO THE FUTURE? >> WELL, JUST WITH RESPECT TO

  • ON INTO THE FUTURE? >> WELL, JUST WITH RESPECT TO YOUR PREMISE, I MEAN, I'VE SAID

  • >> WELL, JUST WITH RESPECT TO YOUR PREMISE, I MEAN, I'VE SAID

  • >> WELL, JUST WITH RESPECT TO YOUR PREMISE, I MEAN, I'VE SAID MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVEN

  • YOUR PREMISE, I MEAN, I'VE SAID MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVEN

  • YOUR PREMISE, I MEAN, I'VE SAID MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVEN YEARS THAT WE TRY TO PRESENT A

  • MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVEN YEARS THAT WE TRY TO PRESENT A

  • MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVEN YEARS THAT WE TRY TO PRESENT A FRESH ANALYSIS EACH TIME WE'RE

  • YEARS THAT WE TRY TO PRESENT A FRESH ANALYSIS EACH TIME WE'RE

  • YEARS THAT WE TRY TO PRESENT A FRESH ANALYSIS EACH TIME WE'RE HERE IN FRONT OF YOU, INCLUDING

  • FRESH ANALYSIS EACH TIME WE'RE HERE IN FRONT OF YOU, INCLUDING

  • FRESH ANALYSIS EACH TIME WE'RE HERE IN FRONT OF YOU, INCLUDING A FRESH PRESS RELEASE, AND THE

  • HERE IN FRONT OF YOU, INCLUDING A FRESH PRESS RELEASE, AND THE

  • HERE IN FRONT OF YOU, INCLUDING A FRESH PRESS RELEASE, AND THE REASON WE DO THAT IS SO THAT

  • A FRESH PRESS RELEASE, AND THE REASON WE DO THAT IS SO THAT

  • A FRESH PRESS RELEASE, AND THE REASON WE DO THAT IS SO THAT INDIVIDUAL WORDS DON'T BECOME SO

  • REASON WE DO THAT IS SO THAT INDIVIDUAL WORDS DON'T BECOME SO

  • INDIVIDUAL WORDS DON'T BECOME SO

  • INDIVIDUAL WORDS DON'T BECOME SO DPE EN SI IS

  • DPE EN SI IS

  • DPE EN SI IS THERE SOMETIMES ANT

  • DPE EN SI IS THERE SOMETIMES ANT

  • DPE EN SI IS THERE SOMETIMES ANT OTHER TIMES, IT DOESN'T MEAN

  • THERE SOMETIMES ANT OTHER TIMES, IT DOESN'T MEAN

  • THERE SOMETIMES ANT OTHER TIMES, IT DOESN'T MEAN SUDDENLY WE'RE NOT DATA

  • OTHER TIMES, IT DOESN'T MEAN SUDDENLY WE'RE NOT DATA

  • OTHER TIMES, IT DOESN'T MEAN SUDDENLY WE'RE NOT DATA DEPENDENT.

  • SUDDENLY WE'RE NOT DATA DEPENDENT.

  • SUDDENLY WE'RE NOT DATA DEPENDENT. WE'RE ALWAYS DATA DEPENDENT.

  • DEPENDENT. WE'RE ALWAYS DATA DEPENDENT.

  • DEPENDENT. WE'RE ALWAYS DATA DEPENDENT. AND "APPROPRIATE", I DARE SAY

  • WE'RE ALWAYS DATA DEPENDENT. AND "APPROPRIATE", I DARE SAY

  • WE'RE ALWAYS DATA DEPENDENT. AND "APPROPRIATE", I DARE SAY THAT INTEREST RATE I WILL STAND

  • AND "APPROPRIATE", I DARE SAY THAT INTEREST RATE I WILL STAND

  • AND "APPROPRIATE", I DARE SAY THAT INTEREST RATE I WILL STAND BY THIS -- THAT THE INTEREST

  • THAT INTEREST RATE I WILL STAND BY THIS -- THAT THE INTEREST

  • THAT INTEREST RATE I WILL STAND BY THIS -- THAT THE INTEREST RATE THAT WE HAVE TODAY REMAINS

  • BY THIS -- THAT THE INTEREST RATE THAT WE HAVE TODAY REMAINS

  • BY THIS -- THAT THE INTEREST RATE THAT WE HAVE TODAY REMAINS APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS

  • RATE THAT WE HAVE TODAY REMAINS APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS

  • RATE THAT WE HAVE TODAY REMAINS APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS TH

  • APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS TH

  • APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS TH EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN'T SAY THAT

  • TH EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN'T SAY THAT

  • TH EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN'T SAY THAT IN THE PRESS RELEASE.

  • EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN'T SAY THAT IN THE PRESS RELEASE.

  • EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN'T SAY THAT IN THE PRESS RELEASE. BUT THE ANALYSIS THAT GOES WITH

  • IN THE PRESS RELEASE. BUT THE ANALYSIS THAT GOES WITH

  • IN THE PRESS RELEASE. BUT THE ANALYSIS THAT GOES WITH THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS

  • BUT THE ANALYSIS THAT GOES WITH THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS

  • BUT THE ANALYSIS THAT GOES WITH THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS EMERGING THERE SOME DOWN SIDE

  • THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS EMERGING THERE SOME DOWN SIDE

  • THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS EMERGING THERE SOME DOWN SIDE RISK TO THE OUTLOOK FOR

  • EMERGING THERE SOME DOWN SIDE RISK TO THE OUTLOOK FOR

  • EMERGING THERE SOME DOWN SIDE RISK TO THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION.

  • RISK TO THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION.

  • RISK TO THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. THAT'S WHAT ALL THAT TALKS

  • INFLATION. THAT'S WHAT ALL THAT TALKS

  • INFLATION. THAT'S WHAT ALL THAT TALKS ABOUT.

  • THAT'S WHAT ALL THAT TALKS ABOUT.

  • THAT'S WHAT ALL THAT TALKS ABOUT. SO NOT SAYING THAT THE DOOR IS

  • ABOUT. SO NOT SAYING THAT THE DOOR IS

  • ABOUT. SO NOT SAYING THAT THE DOOR IS NOT OPEN TO AN INTEREST RATE

  • SO NOT SAYING THAT THE DOOR IS NOT OPEN TO AN INTEREST RATE

  • SO NOT SAYING THAT THE DOOR IS NOT OPEN TO AN INTEREST RATE CUT.

  • NOT OPEN TO AN INTEREST RATE CUT.

  • NOT OPEN TO AN INTEREST RATE CUT. OBVIOUSLY IT IS.

  • CUT. OBVIOUSLY IT IS.

  • CUT. OBVIOUSLY IT IS. IT IS OPEN.

  • OBVIOUSLY IT IS. IT IS OPEN.

  • OBVIOUSLY IT IS. IT IS OPEN. BUT IT HINGES ON HOW THE DAY

  • IT IS OPEN. BUT IT HINGES ON HOW THE DAY

  • IT IS OPEN. BUT IT HINGES ON HOW THE DAY EVOLVED FROM HERE BECAUSE OUR

  • BUT IT HINGES ON HOW THE DAY EVOLVED FROM HERE BECAUSE OUR

  • BUT IT HINGES ON HOW THE DAY EVOLVED FROM HERE BECAUSE OUR BASE CASE -- WE HAVE A STRONG

  • EVOLVED FROM HERE BECAUSE OUR BASE CASE -- WE HAVE A STRONG

  • EVOLVED FROM HERE BECAUSE OUR BASE CASE -- WE HAVE A STRONG BELIEF THAT THIS WOULD PROVE

  • BASE CASE -- WE HAVE A STRONG BELIEF THAT THIS WOULD PROVE

  • BASE CASE -- WE HAVE A STRONG BELIEF THAT THIS WOULD PROVE TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARY COULD BE

  • BELIEF THAT THIS WOULD PROVE TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARY COULD BE

  • BELIEF THAT THIS WOULD PROVE TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARY COULD BE LONGER OR SHORTER.

  • TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARY COULD BE LONGER OR SHORTER.

  • TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARY COULD BE LONGER OR SHORTER. AND TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S

  • LONGER OR SHORTER. AND TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S

  • LONGER OR SHORTER. AND TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S LONGER, THAT OPENS UP A LARGER

  • AND TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S LONGER, THAT OPENS UP A LARGER

  • AND TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S LONGER, THAT OPENS UP A LARGER OUTPUT GAP, PUTS MORE DOWNWARD

  • LONGER, THAT OPENS UP A LARGER OUTPUT GAP, PUTS MORE DOWNWARD

  • LONGER, THAT OPENS UP A LARGER OUTPUT GAP, PUTS MORE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION, AND WE

  • OUTPUT GAP, PUTS MORE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION, AND WE

  • OUTPUT GAP, PUTS MORE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION, AND WE WOULD HAVE TO COME BACK TO THAT

  • PRESSURE ON INFLATION, AND WE WOULD HAVE TO COME BACK TO THAT

  • PRESSURE ON INFLATION, AND WE WOULD HAVE TO COME BACK TO THAT DECISION TO DECIDE THEN WHETHER

  • WOULD HAVE TO COME BACK TO THAT DECISION TO DECIDE THEN WHETHER

  • WOULD HAVE TO COME BACK TO THAT DECISION TO DECIDE THEN WHETHER OR NOT INTEREST RATES, AS IT IS

  • DECISION TO DECIDE THEN WHETHER OR NOT INTEREST RATES, AS IT IS

  • DECISION TO DECIDE THEN WHETHER OR NOT INTEREST RATES, AS IT IS TODAY, REMAINS APPROPRIATE.

  • OR NOT INTEREST RATES, AS IT IS TODAY, REMAINS APPROPRIATE.

  • OR NOT INTEREST RATES, AS IT IS TODAY, REMAINS APPROPRIATE. >> DO YOU HAVE A FOLLOW-UP?

  • TODAY, REMAINS APPROPRIATE. >> DO YOU HAVE A FOLLOW-UP?

  • TODAY, REMAINS APPROPRIATE. >> DO YOU HAVE A FOLLOW-UP? KIM?

  • >> DO YOU HAVE A FOLLOW-UP? KIM?

  • >> DO YOU HAVE A FOLLOW-UP? KIM? >> Question: THANKS.

  • KIM? >> Question: THANKS.

  • KIM? >> Question: THANKS. KIM McKRAL.

  • >> Question: THANKS. KIM McKRAL.

  • >> Question: THANKS. KIM McKRAL. >> WHERE ARE YOU, KIM?

  • KIM McKRAL. >> WHERE ARE YOU, KIM?

  • KIM McKRAL. >> WHERE ARE YOU, KIM? THERE YOU ARE.

  • >> WHERE ARE YOU, KIM? THERE YOU ARE.

  • >> WHERE ARE YOU, KIM? THERE YOU ARE. OKAY.

  • THERE YOU ARE. OKAY.

  • THERE YOU ARE. OKAY. YOU'RE BEHIND GREG.

  • OKAY. YOU'RE BEHIND GREG.

  • OKAY. YOU'RE BEHIND GREG. ALL RIGHT.

  • YOU'RE BEHIND GREG. ALL RIGHT.

  • YOU'RE BEHIND GREG. ALL RIGHT. >> Question: CAN YOU JUST SPEAK

  • ALL RIGHT. >> Question: CAN YOU JUST SPEAK

  • ALL RIGHT. >> Question: CAN YOU JUST SPEAK TO, DURING THE DELIBERATIONS

  • >> Question: CAN YOU JUST SPEAK TO, DURING THE DELIBERATIONS

  • >> Question: CAN YOU JUST SPEAK TO, DURING THE DELIBERATIONS WITH GOVERNING COUNCIL, TO WHAT

  • TO, DURING THE DELIBERATIONS WITH GOVERNING COUNCIL, TO WHAT

  • TO, DURING THE DELIBERATIONS WITH GOVERNING COUNCIL, TO WHAT EXTENT WAS THERE -- DID ANYONE

  • WITH GOVERNING COUNCIL, TO WHAT EXTENT WAS THERE -- DID ANYONE

  • WITH GOVERNING COUNCIL, TO WHAT EXTENT WAS THERE -- DID ANYONE OR WAS THERE AN ARGUMENT FOR

  • EXTENT WAS THERE -- DID ANYONE OR WAS THERE AN ARGUMENT FOR

  • EXTENT WAS THERE -- DID ANYONE OR WAS THERE AN ARGUMENT FOR ACTUALLY BRINGING IN AN INTEREST

  • OR WAS THERE AN ARGUMENT FOR ACTUALLY BRINGING IN AN INTEREST

  • OR WAS THERE AN ARGUMENT FOR ACTUALLY BRINGING IN AN INTEREST RATE CUT THIS WEEK?

  • ACTUALLY BRINGING IN AN INTEREST RATE CUT THIS WEEK?

  • ACTUALLY BRINGING IN AN INTEREST RATE CUT THIS WEEK? >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN

  • RATE CUT THIS WEEK? >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN

  • RATE CUT THIS WEEK? >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN BE ANY CLEARER THAN I JUST WAS.

  • >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN BE ANY CLEARER THAN I JUST WAS.

  • >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN BE ANY CLEARER THAN I JUST WAS. AS A TECHNICAL MATTER, ALL THE

  • BE ANY CLEARER THAN I JUST WAS. AS A TECHNICAL MATTER, ALL THE

  • BE ANY CLEARER THAN I JUST WAS. AS A TECHNICAL MATTER, ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR YOU TO

  • AS A TECHNICAL MATTER, ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR YOU TO

  • AS A TECHNICAL MATTER, ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR YOU TO CONSIDER THIS.

  • INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR YOU TO CONSIDER THIS.

  • INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR YOU TO CONSIDER THIS. IT'S INTERESTING TO COMPARE IT

  • CONSIDER THIS. IT'S INTERESTING TO COMPARE IT

  • CONSIDER THIS. IT'S INTERESTING TO COMPARE IT NOW TO, LET'S SAY, OCTOBER ASK,

  • IT'S INTERESTING TO COMPARE IT NOW TO, LET'S SAY, OCTOBER ASK,

  • IT'S INTERESTING TO COMPARE IT NOW TO, LET'S SAY, OCTOBER ASK, WHERE WE DISCUSSED, AND I SAID

  • NOW TO, LET'S SAY, OCTOBER ASK, WHERE WE DISCUSSED, AND I SAID

  • NOW TO, LET'S SAY, OCTOBER ASK, WHERE WE DISCUSSED, AND I SAID HERE THAT WE CONSIDERED WHETHER

  • WHERE WE DISCUSSED, AND I SAID HERE THAT WE CONSIDERED WHETHER

  • WHERE WE DISCUSSED, AND I SAID HERE THAT WE CONSIDERED WHETHER WE SHOULD BE -- WE SHOULD BE

  • HERE THAT WE CONSIDERED WHETHER WE SHOULD BE -- WE SHOULD BE

  • HERE THAT WE CONSIDERED WHETHER WE SHOULD BE -- WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT

  • WE SHOULD BE -- WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT

  • WE SHOULD BE -- WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT IN OCTOBER AND WHAT SENSE WOULD

  • LOOKING AT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT IN OCTOBER AND WHAT SENSE WOULD

  • LOOKING AT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT IN OCTOBER AND WHAT SENSE WOULD IT BE INSURANCE?

  • IN OCTOBER AND WHAT SENSE WOULD IT BE INSURANCE?

  • IN OCTOBER AND WHAT SENSE WOULD IT BE INSURANCE? THAT WOULD BE INSURANCE AGAINST

  • IT BE INSURANCE? THAT WOULD BE INSURANCE AGAINST

  • IT BE INSURANCE? THAT WOULD BE INSURANCE AGAINST A DOWN SIDE RISK THAT, YOU KNOW,

  • THAT WOULD BE INSURANCE AGAINST A DOWN SIDE RISK THAT, YOU KNOW,

  • THAT WOULD BE INSURANCE AGAINST A DOWN SIDE RISK THAT, YOU KNOW, FROM THE OUTSIDE, WHICH WE KNEW

  • A DOWN SIDE RISK THAT, YOU KNOW, FROM THE OUTSIDE, WHICH WE KNEW

  • A DOWN SIDE RISK THAT, YOU KNOW, FROM THE OUTSIDE, WHICH WE KNEW WAS WASHING UP ON OUR SHORES AND

  • FROM THE OUTSIDE, WHICH WE KNEW WAS WASHING UP ON OUR SHORES AND

  • FROM THE OUTSIDE, WHICH WE KNEW WAS WASHING UP ON OUR SHORES AND THE QUESTION IS, HOW BIG WOULD

  • WAS WASHING UP ON OUR SHORES AND THE QUESTION IS, HOW BIG WOULD

  • WAS WASHING UP ON OUR SHORES AND THE QUESTION IS, HOW BIG WOULD IT BE?

  • THE QUESTION IS, HOW BIG WOULD IT BE?

  • THE QUESTION IS, HOW BIG WOULD IT BE? IS ONE.

  • IT BE? IS ONE.

  • IT BE? IS ONE. AND SECONDLY, IF IT WERE OF A

  • IS ONE. AND SECONDLY, IF IT WERE OF A

  • IS ONE. AND SECONDLY, IF IT WERE OF A MAGNITUDE, WOULD IT BE BIG

  • AND SECONDLY, IF IT WERE OF A MAGNITUDE, WOULD IT BE BIG

  • AND SECONDLY, IF IT WERE OF A MAGNITUDE, WOULD IT BE BIG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHER SIDE

  • MAGNITUDE, WOULD IT BE BIG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHER SIDE

  • MAGNITUDE, WOULD IT BE BIG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT RISK EVER INFLATION

  • ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT RISK EVER INFLATION

  • ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT RISK EVER INFLATION WHICH YOU WOULD BE POURING SOME

  • OF THAT RISK EVER INFLATION WHICH YOU WOULD BE POURING SOME

  • OF THAT RISK EVER INFLATION WHICH YOU WOULD BE POURING SOME FUEL ONTO FINANCIAL

  • WHICH YOU WOULD BE POURING SOME FUEL ONTO FINANCIAL

  • FUEL ONTO FINANCIAL

  • FUEL ONTO FINANCIAL VULNERABILIES TO MAKE AN EVEN

  • VULNERABILIES TO MAKE AN EVEN

  • VULNERABILIES TO MAKE AN EVEN HOTTER HOUSING MARKET AND MAKE

  • VULNERABILIES TO MAKE AN EVEN HOTTER HOUSING MARKET AND MAKE

  • VULNERABILIES TO MAKE AN EVEN HOTTER HOUSING MARKET AND MAKE IT HARDER FOR US TO REACH OUR

  • HOTTER HOUSING MARKET AND MAKE IT HARDER FOR US TO REACH OUR

  • HOTTER HOUSING MARKET AND MAKE IT HARDER FOR US TO REACH OUR INFLATION TARGET DOWN THE ROAD.

  • IT HARDER FOR US TO REACH OUR INFLATION TARGET DOWN THE ROAD.

  • IT HARDER FOR US TO REACH OUR INFLATION TARGET DOWN THE ROAD. WE WERE, LIKE, OKAY, NOW WE'RE

  • INFLATION TARGET DOWN THE ROAD. WE WERE, LIKE, OKAY, NOW WE'RE

  • INFLATION TARGET DOWN THE ROAD. WE WERE, LIKE, OKAY, NOW WE'RE ASSESSING HOW BIG THEY ACTUALLY

  • WE WERE, LIKE, OKAY, NOW WE'RE ASSESSING HOW BIG THEY ACTUALLY

  • ASSESSING HOW BIG THEY ACTUALLY

  • ASSESSING HOW BIG THEY ACTUALLY AND WHETHER THEY WILL CONTINUE

  • AND WHETHER THEY WILL CONTINUE

  • AND WHETHER THEY WILL CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER OR LAST LONGER

  • AND WHETHER THEY WILL CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER OR LAST LONGER

  • AND WHETHER THEY WILL CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER OR LAST LONGER THAN WE'RE SUPPOSING.

  • TO GET BIGGER OR LAST LONGER THAN WE'RE SUPPOSING.

  • TO GET BIGGER OR LAST LONGER THAN WE'RE SUPPOSING. SO IN THAT CONTEXT, YOU KNOW,

  • THAN WE'RE SUPPOSING. SO IN THAT CONTEXT, YOU KNOW,

  • THAN WE'RE SUPPOSING. SO IN THAT CONTEXT, YOU KNOW, THE SENSE OF WHETHER WE NEED

  • SO IN THAT CONTEXT, YOU KNOW, THE SENSE OF WHETHER WE NEED

  • SO IN THAT CONTEXT, YOU KNOW, THE SENSE OF WHETHER WE NEED EASIER -- AN EASING OF MONETARY

  • THE SENSE OF WHETHER WE NEED EASIER -- AN EASING OF MONETARY

  • THE SENSE OF WHETHER WE NEED EASIER -- AN EASING OF MONETARY CONDITIONS IS OBVIOUSLY PRESENCE

  • EASIER -- AN EASING OF MONETARY CONDITIONS IS OBVIOUSLY PRESENCE

  • EASIER -- AN EASING OF MONETARY CONDITIONS IS OBVIOUSLY PRESENCE IN THE ANALYSIS BUT THE

  • CONDITIONS IS OBVIOUSLY PRESENCE IN THE ANALYSIS BUT THE

  • CONDITIONS IS OBVIOUSLY PRESENCE IN THE ANALYSIS BUT THE TRADEOFFS ARE NOT AS SIMPLE AS

  • IN THE ANALYSIS BUT THE TRADEOFFS ARE NOT AS SIMPLE AS

  • IN THE ANALYSIS BUT THE TRADEOFFS ARE NOT AS SIMPLE AS IT SOUNDS IN THAT MECHANICAL

  • TRADEOFFS ARE NOT AS SIMPLE AS IT SOUNDS IN THAT MECHANICAL

  • TRADEOFFS ARE NOT AS SIMPLE AS IT SOUNDS IN THAT MECHANICAL WAY.

  • IT SOUNDS IN THAT MECHANICAL WAY.

  • IT SOUNDS IN THAT MECHANICAL WAY. SO AS CAROLYN WAS SUMMARIZING

  • WAY. SO AS CAROLYN WAS SUMMARIZING

  • WAY. SO AS CAROLYN WAS SUMMARIZING BEFORE, THERE ARE THESE

  • SO AS CAROLYN WAS SUMMARIZING BEFORE, THERE ARE THESE

  • SO AS CAROLYN WAS SUMMARIZING BEFORE, THERE ARE THESE COMPETING THINGS AND WE HAVE TO

  • BEFORE, THERE ARE THESE COMPETING THINGS AND WE HAVE TO

  • BEFORE, THERE ARE THESE COMPETING THINGS AND WE HAVE TO HAVE THOSE -- BOTH HORIZONS IN

  • COMPETING THINGS AND WE HAVE TO HAVE THOSE -- BOTH HORIZONS IN

  • COMPETING THINGS AND WE HAVE TO HAVE THOSE -- BOTH HORIZONS IN MIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE CALL IT

  • HAVE THOSE -- BOTH HORIZONS IN MIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE CALL IT

  • HAVE THOSE -- BOTH HORIZONS IN MIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE CALL IT A FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING

  • MIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE CALL IT A FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING

  • MIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE CALL IT A FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING BECAUSE THE HORIZON OVER WHICH

  • A FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING BECAUSE THE HORIZON OVER WHICH

  • A FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING BECAUSE THE HORIZON OVER WHICH WE MAKE SURE THAT INFLATION IS

  • BECAUSE THE HORIZON OVER WHICH WE MAKE SURE THAT INFLATION IS

  • BECAUSE THE HORIZON OVER WHICH WE MAKE SURE THAT INFLATION IS BACK ON TARGET IS SOMETHING THAT

  • WE MAKE SURE THAT INFLATION IS BACK ON TARGET IS SOMETHING THAT

  • WE MAKE SURE THAT INFLATION IS BACK ON TARGET IS SOMETHING THAT WE CAN FLEX OUT OR IN DEPENDING

  • BACK ON TARGET IS SOMETHING THAT WE CAN FLEX OUT OR IN DEPENDING

  • BACK ON TARGET IS SOMETHING THAT WE CAN FLEX OUT OR IN DEPENDING ON CIRCUMSTANCES.

  • WE CAN FLEX OUT OR IN DEPENDING ON CIRCUMSTANCES.

  • WE CAN FLEX OUT OR IN DEPENDING ON CIRCUMSTANCES. AND THE THINGS THAT OFTEN DO

  • ON CIRCUMSTANCES. AND THE THINGS THAT OFTEN DO

  • ON CIRCUMSTANCES. AND THE THINGS THAT OFTEN DO THAT ARE THE FINANCIAL

  • AND THE THINGS THAT OFTEN DO THAT ARE THE FINANCIAL

  • AND THE THINGS THAT OFTEN DO THAT ARE THE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT I'M

  • THAT ARE THE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT I'M

  • THAT ARE THE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT I'M SPEAKING.

  • VULNERABILITIES THAT I'M SPEAKING.

  • VULNERABILITIES THAT I'M SPEAKING. >> Question: GIVEN THAT SOME OF

  • SPEAKING. >> Question: GIVEN THAT SOME OF

  • SPEAKING. >> Question: GIVEN THAT SOME OF THOSE DOWN SIDE RISKS THAT YOU

  • >> Question: GIVEN THAT SOME OF THOSE DOWN SIDE RISKS THAT YOU

  • >> Question: GIVEN THAT SOME OF THOSE DOWN SIDE RISKS THAT YOU DESCRIBED HAVE CRYSTALIZED NOW,

  • THOSE DOWN SIDE RISKS THAT YOU DESCRIBED HAVE CRYSTALIZED NOW,

  • THOSE DOWN SIDE RISKS THAT YOU DESCRIBED HAVE CRYSTALIZED NOW, WE DID SEE A RATE CUT IN THE

  • DESCRIBED HAVE CRYSTALIZED NOW, WE DID SEE A RATE CUT IN THE

  • DESCRIBED HAVE CRYSTALIZED NOW, WE DID SEE A RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE WITH THAT NO LONGER BEING

  • WE DID SEE A RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE WITH THAT NO LONGER BEING

  • WE DID SEE A RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE WITH THAT NO LONGER BEING AN INSURANCE.

  • FUTURE WITH THAT NO LONGER BEING AN INSURANCE.

  • FUTURE WITH THAT NO LONGER BEING AN INSURANCE. THAT WOULD BE A CUT TO DEAL WITH

  • AN INSURANCE. THAT WOULD BE A CUT TO DEAL WITH

  • AN INSURANCE. THAT WOULD BE A CUT TO DEAL WITH THE PRESENT REALITY.

  • THAT WOULD BE A CUT TO DEAL WITH THE PRESENT REALITY.

  • THAT WOULD BE A CUT TO DEAL WITH THE PRESENT REALITY. >> THAT'S RIGHT.

  • THE PRESENT REALITY. >> THAT'S RIGHT.

  • THE PRESENT REALITY. >> THAT'S RIGHT. IT WOULD NOT BE CUT AGAINST A

  • >> THAT'S RIGHT. IT WOULD NOT BE CUT AGAINST A

  • >> THAT'S RIGHT. IT WOULD NOT BE CUT AGAINST A HYPOTHETICAL OR A POSSIBILITY.

  • IT WOULD NOT BE CUT AGAINST A HYPOTHETICAL OR A POSSIBILITY.

  • IT WOULD NOT BE CUT AGAINST A HYPOTHETICAL OR A POSSIBILITY. IT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S

  • HYPOTHETICAL OR A POSSIBILITY. IT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S

  • HYPOTHETICAL OR A POSSIBILITY. IT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALWAYS ADDITIONAL RISK AND

  • IT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALWAYS ADDITIONAL RISK AND

  • IT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALWAYS ADDITIONAL RISK AND CONSIDERATIONS IN NEW FORECASTS.

  • ALWAYS ADDITIONAL RISK AND CONSIDERATIONS IN NEW FORECASTS.

  • ALWAYS ADDITIONAL RISK AND CONSIDERATIONS IN NEW FORECASTS. FOR US A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL.

  • CONSIDERATIONS IN NEW FORECASTS. FOR US A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL.

  • CONSIDERATIONS IN NEW FORECASTS. FOR US A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL. OUR INFLATION TARGET AND AS WE

  • FOR US A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL. OUR INFLATION TARGET AND AS WE

  • FOR US A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL. OUR INFLATION TARGET AND AS WE FELT COMPELLED TO ACT ON IT.

  • OUR INFLATION TARGET AND AS WE FELT COMPELLED TO ACT ON IT.

  • OUR INFLATION TARGET AND AS WE FELT COMPELLED TO ACT ON IT. THAT IS OUR PRIMARY MISSION, OF

  • FELT COMPELLED TO ACT ON IT. THAT IS OUR PRIMARY MISSION, OF

  • FELT COMPELLED TO ACT ON IT. THAT IS OUR PRIMARY MISSION, OF .

  • THAT IS OUR PRIMARY MISSION, OF .

  • THAT IS OUR PRIMARY MISSION, OF . >> BILL?

  • . >> BILL?

  • . >> BILL? >> Question: ON ISSUE OF

  • >> BILL? >> Question: ON ISSUE OF

  • >> BILL? >> Question: ON ISSUE OF HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES AND

  • >> Question: ON ISSUE OF HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES AND

  • >> Question: ON ISSUE OF HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES AND THE HOUSING MARKETS, THE

  • HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES AND THE HOUSING MARKETS, THE

  • HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES AND THE HOUSING MARKETS, THE GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING THE

  • THE HOUSING MARKETS, THE GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING THE

  • THE HOUSING MARKETS, THE GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING THE TERMS OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS

  • GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING THE TERMS OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS

  • GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING THE TERMS OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS TEST AND I'M CURIOUS IF EITHER

  • TERMS OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS TEST AND I'M CURIOUS IF EITHER

  • TERMS OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS TEST AND I'M CURIOUS IF EITHER OF YOU WOULD WEIGH IN ON YOUR

  • TEST AND I'M CURIOUS IF EITHER OF YOU WOULD WEIGH IN ON YOUR

  • TEST AND I'M CURIOUS IF EITHER OF YOU WOULD WEIGH IN ON YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF

  • OF YOU WOULD WEIGH IN ON YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF

  • OF YOU WOULD WEIGH IN ON YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT POLICY IN RECENT YEARS THAT

  • THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT POLICY IN RECENT YEARS THAT

  • THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT POLICY IN RECENT YEARS THAT ADDRESSING SOME OF THE CONCERNS

  • THAT POLICY IN RECENT YEARS THAT ADDRESSING SOME OF THE CONCERNS

  • THAT POLICY IN RECENT YEARS THAT ADDRESSING SOME OF THE CONCERNS ABOUT RISK AND INDEBTEDNESS

  • ADDRESSING SOME OF THE CONCERNS ABOUT RISK AND INDEBTEDNESS

  • ADDRESSING SOME OF THE CONCERNS ABOUT RISK AND INDEBTEDNESS YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT AND IF THE

  • ABOUT RISK AND INDEBTEDNESS YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT AND IF THE

  • ABOUT RISK AND INDEBTEDNESS YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT AND IF THE TERMS OF THE PROGRAM WERE TO BE

  • YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT AND IF THE TERMS OF THE PROGRAM WERE TO BE

  • TERMS OF THE PROGRAM WERE TO BE

  • TERMS OF THE PROGRAM WERE TO BE LOOSENED, DO Y FORESEE MORE

  • LOOSENED, DO Y FORESEE MORE

  • LOOSENED, DO Y FORESEE MORE RI I ARE Y'VE BEEN

  • LOOSENED, DO Y FORESEE MORE RI I ARE Y'VE BEEN

  • LOOSENED, DO Y FORESEE MORE RI I ARE Y'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT?

  • RI I ARE Y'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT?

  • RI I ARE Y'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT? >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION.

  • TALKING ABOUT? >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION.

  • TALKING ABOUT? >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. >> SO WE'VE BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT

  • >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. >> SO WE'VE BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT

  • >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. >> SO WE'VE BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT WE THINK THAT THE STRESS TEST

  • >> SO WE'VE BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT WE THINK THAT THE STRESS TEST

  • >> SO WE'VE BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT WE THINK THAT THE STRESS TEST HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF

  • WE THINK THAT THE STRESS TEST HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF

  • WE THINK THAT THE STRESS TEST HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF SAFEGUARDING THE SYSTEM AND

  • HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF SAFEGUARDING THE SYSTEM AND

  • HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF SAFEGUARDING THE SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY SAFEGUARDING

  • SAFEGUARDING THE SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY SAFEGUARDING

  • SAFEGUARDING THE SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY SAFEGUARDING INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE TAKING ON

  • ACTUALLY SAFEGUARDING INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE TAKING ON

  • ACTUALLY SAFEGUARDING INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE TAKING ON MORTGAGES SO THAT THEY CAN BE

  • INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE TAKING ON MORTGAGES SO THAT THEY CAN BE

  • INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE TAKING ON MORTGAGES SO THAT THEY CAN BE MORE CONFIDENT THAN THEY'LL BE

  • MORTGAGES SO THAT THEY CAN BE MORE CONFIDENT THAN THEY'LL BE

  • MORTGAGES SO THAT THEY CAN BE MORE CONFIDENT THAN THEY'LL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE MORTGAGE OVER

  • MORE CONFIDENT THAN THEY'LL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE MORTGAGE OVER

  • MORE CONFIDENT THAN THEY'LL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE MORTGAGE OVER THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE.

  • ABLE TO HANDLE THE MORTGAGE OVER THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE.

  • ABLE TO HANDLE THE MORTGAGE OVER THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE. AND SO -- SO THAT'S THE FIRST

  • THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE. AND SO -- SO THAT'S THE FIRST

  • THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE. AND SO -- SO THAT'S THE FIRST POINT.

  • AND SO -- SO THAT'S THE FIRST POINT.

  • AND SO -- SO THAT'S THE FIRST POINT. WITH RESPECT TO ANY PARTICULAR

  • POINT. WITH RESPECT TO ANY PARTICULAR

  • POINT. WITH RESPECT TO ANY PARTICULAR CHANGES, THE MANDATE HERE ISN'T

  • WITH RESPECT TO ANY PARTICULAR CHANGES, THE MANDATE HERE ISN'T

  • WITH RESPECT TO ANY PARTICULAR CHANGES, THE MANDATE HERE ISN'T NECESSARILY TO LOOSEN IT.

  • CHANGES, THE MANDATE HERE ISN'T NECESSARILY TO LOOSEN IT.

  • CHANGES, THE MANDATE HERE ISN'T NECESSARILY TO LOOSEN IT. IT'S JUST TO MAKE IT MORE KIND

  • NECESSARILY TO LOOSEN IT. IT'S JUST TO MAKE IT MORE KIND

  • NECESSARILY TO LOOSEN IT. IT'S JUST TO MAKE IT MORE KIND DYNAMIC WITH RESPECT TO HOW

  • IT'S JUST TO MAKE IT MORE KIND DYNAMIC WITH RESPECT TO HOW

  • IT'S JUST TO MAKE IT MORE KIND DYNAMIC WITH RESPECT TO HOW INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE RATES,

  • DYNAMIC WITH RESPECT TO HOW INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE RATES,

  • DYNAMIC WITH RESPECT TO HOW INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE RATES, ACTUALLY CHANGE.

  • INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE RATES, ACTUALLY CHANGE.

  • INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE RATES, ACTUALLY CHANGE. WHEN THE STRESS TEST WAS BROUGHT

  • ACTUALLY CHANGE. WHEN THE STRESS TEST WAS BROUGHT

  • ACTUALLY CHANGE. WHEN THE STRESS TEST WAS BROUGHT IN, IT WAS BRAND NEW.

  • WHEN THE STRESS TEST WAS BROUGHT IN, IT WAS BRAND NEW.

  • WHEN THE STRESS TEST WAS BROUGHT IN, IT WAS BRAND NEW. IT WAS PUT IN A TIME WHEN

  • IN, IT WAS BRAND NEW. IT WAS PUT IN A TIME WHEN

  • IN, IT WAS BRAND NEW. IT WAS PUT IN A TIME WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY LOW.

  • IT WAS PUT IN A TIME WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY LOW.

  • IT WAS PUT IN A TIME WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY LOW. AND ANYBODY WHO'S DOING -- BEEN

  • INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY LOW. AND ANYBODY WHO'S DOING -- BEEN

  • INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY LOW. AND ANYBODY WHO'S DOING -- BEEN DOING FINANCIAL REGULATION LONG

  • AND ANYBODY WHO'S DOING -- BEEN DOING FINANCIAL REGULATION LONG

  • AND ANYBODY WHO'S DOING -- BEEN DOING FINANCIAL REGULATION LONG ENOUGH KNOWS THAT AS YOU SEE

  • DOING FINANCIAL REGULATION LONG ENOUGH KNOWS THAT AS YOU SEE

  • DOING FINANCIAL REGULATION LONG ENOUGH KNOWS THAT AS YOU SEE THESE THINGS AT PLAY, YOU

  • ENOUGH KNOWS THAT AS YOU SEE THESE THINGS AT PLAY, YOU

  • ENOUGH KNOWS THAT AS YOU SEE THESE THINGS AT PLAY, YOU REALIZE THAT MAYBE THERE ARE

  • THESE THINGS AT PLAY, YOU REALIZE THAT MAYBE THERE ARE

  • THESE THINGS AT PLAY, YOU REALIZE THAT MAYBE THERE ARE SOME DESIRABLE TWEAKS THAT COULD

  • REALIZE THAT MAYBE THERE ARE SOME DESIRABLE TWEAKS THAT COULD

  • REALIZE THAT MAYBE THERE ARE SOME DESIRABLE TWEAKS THAT COULD BE MADE.

  • SOME DESIRABLE TWEAKS THAT COULD BE MADE.

  • SOME DESIRABLE TWEAKS THAT COULD BE MADE. WITH RESPECT TO WHAT AFFECT ANY

  • BE MADE. WITH RESPECT TO WHAT AFFECT ANY

  • BE MADE. WITH RESPECT TO WHAT AFFECT ANY TWEAK MIGHT HAVE, IT JUST

  • WITH RESPECT TO WHAT AFFECT ANY TWEAK MIGHT HAVE, IT JUST

  • WITH RESPECT TO WHAT AFFECT ANY TWEAK MIGHT HAVE, IT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW IT'S REDESIGNED

  • TWEAK MIGHT HAVE, IT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW IT'S REDESIGNED

  • TWEAK MIGHT HAVE, IT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW IT'S REDESIGNED AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT YET SO

  • DEPENDS ON HOW IT'S REDESIGNED AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT YET SO

  • DEPENDS ON HOW IT'S REDESIGNED AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT YET SO WHAT BANK WILL DO IS TAKE LOOK

  • AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT YET SO WHAT BANK WILL DO IS TAKE LOOK

  • AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT YET SO WHAT BANK WILL DO IS TAKE LOOK AT IT WHEN IT HAPPENS AND LIKE

  • WHAT BANK WILL DO IS TAKE LOOK AT IT WHEN IT HAPPENS AND LIKE

  • WHAT BANK WILL DO IS TAKE LOOK AT IT WHEN IT HAPPENS AND LIKE WE DID IN THE PAST, TRY TO GET

  • AT IT WHEN IT HAPPENS AND LIKE WE DID IN THE PAST, TRY TO GET

  • AT IT WHEN IT HAPPENS AND LIKE WE DID IN THE PAST, TRY TO GET BALLPARK ESTIMATES WHAT THAT

  • WE DID IN THE PAST, TRY TO GET BALLPARK ESTIMATES WHAT THAT

  • WE DID IN THE PAST, TRY TO GET BALLPARK ESTIMATES WHAT THAT ACTUALLY MEANS FOR HOW IT MIGHT

  • BALLPARK ESTIMATES WHAT THAT ACTUALLY MEANS FOR HOW IT MIGHT

  • BALLPARK ESTIMATES WHAT THAT ACTUALLY MEANS FOR HOW IT MIGHT CHANGE THE ACCESSIBILITY OF

  • ACTUALLY MEANS FOR HOW IT MIGHT CHANGE THE ACCESSIBILITY OF

  • ACTUALLY MEANS FOR HOW IT MIGHT CHANGE THE ACCESSIBILITY OF MORTGAGES AND WHAT THAT MIGHT

  • CHANGE THE ACCESSIBILITY OF MORTGAGES AND WHAT THAT MIGHT

  • CHANGE THE ACCESSIBILITY OF MORTGAGES AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET.

  • MORTGAGES AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET.

  • MORTGAGES AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET. >> ANY OTHER QUESTIONS?

  • MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET. >> ANY OTHER QUESTIONS?

  • MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET. >> ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? GOT TIME FOR ONE QUICK ONE.

  • >> ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? GOT TIME FOR ONE QUICK ONE.

  • >> ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? GOT TIME FOR ONE QUICK ONE. NOPE.

  • GOT TIME FOR ONE QUICK ONE. NOPE.

  • GOT TIME FOR ONE QUICK ONE. NOPE. THAT CONCLUDES THIS NEWS

  • NOPE. THAT CONCLUDES THIS NEWS

  • NOPE. THAT CONCLUDES THIS NEWS CONFERENCE.

  • THAT CONCLUDES THIS NEWS CONFERENCE.

  • THAT CONCLUDES THIS NEWS CONFERENCE. THANK YOU, GOVERNOR.

  • CONFERENCE. THANK YOU, GOVERNOR.

  • CONFERENCE. THANK YOU, GOVERNOR. THANK YOU -- OH.

  • THANK YOU, GOVERNOR. THANK YOU -- OH.

  • THANK YOU, GOVERNOR. THANK YOU -- OH. SORRY.OKA

  • THANK YOU -- OH. SORRY.OKA

  • THANK YOU -- OH. SORRY.OKA BLOOMBERG.

  • SORRY.OKA BLOOMBERG.

  • SORRY.OKA BLOOMBERG. >> Question: GOOD MORNING, THIS

  • BLOOMBERG. >> Question: GOOD MORNING, THIS

  • BLOOMBERG. >> Question: GOOD MORNING, THIS IS SHELLY HAGAN WITH BLOOMBERG

  • >> Question: GOOD MORNING, THIS IS SHELLY HAGAN WITH BLOOMBERG

  • >> Question: GOOD MORNING, THIS IS SHELLY HAGAN WITH BLOOMBERG NEWS.

  • IS SHELLY HAGAN WITH BLOOMBERG NEWS.

  • IS SHELLY HAGAN WITH BLOOMBERG NEWS. BASED ON YOUR FORECAST, IS IT

  • NEWS. BASED ON YOUR FORECAST, IS IT

  • NEWS. BASED ON YOUR FORECAST, IS IT FAIR TO SAY TO CARRY EXCESS

  • BASED ON YOUR FORECAST, IS IT FAIR TO SAY TO CARRY EXCESS

  • BASED ON YOUR FORECAST, IS IT FAIR TO SAY TO CARRY EXCESS CAPACITY THROUGHOUT THE

  • FAIR TO SAY TO CARRY EXCESS CAPACITY THROUGHOUT THE

  • FAIR TO SAY TO CARRY EXCESS CAPACITY THROUGHOUT THE PROJECTION HORIZON?

  • CAPACITY THROUGHOUT THE PROJECTION HORIZON?

  • CAPACITY THROUGHOUT THE PROJECTION HORIZON? >> IT'S SHOWN IN CHART 15 AS I

  • PROJECTION HORIZON? >> IT'S SHOWN IN CHART 15 AS I

  • PROJECTION HORIZON? >> IT'S SHOWN IN CHART 15 AS I MENTIONED IN MY OPENING REMARKS.

  • >> IT'S SHOWN IN CHART 15 AS I MENTIONED IN MY OPENING REMARKS.

  • >> IT'S SHOWN IN CHART 15 AS I MENTIONED IN MY OPENING REMARKS. A MODEST AMOUNT BUT IT'S

  • MENTIONED IN MY OPENING REMARKS. A MODEST AMOUNT BUT IT'S

  • MENTIONED IN MY OPENING REMARKS. A MODEST AMOUNT BUT IT'S PRESENT.

  • A MODEST AMOUNT BUT IT'S PRESENT.

  • A MODEST AMOUNT BUT IT'S PRESENT. YES.

  • PRESENT. YES.

  • PRESENT. YES. >> OKAY.

  • YES. >> OKAY.

  • YES. >> OKAY. GREG BONNELL.

  • >> OKAY. GREG BONNELL.

  • >> OKAY. GREG BONNELL. >> OKAY.

  • GREG BONNELL. >> OKAY.

  • GREG BONNELL. >> OKAY. >> Question: I THOUGHT I WAS ON

  • >> OKAY. >> Question: I THOUGHT I WAS ON

  • >> OKAY. >> Question: I THOUGHT I WAS ON THE LIST.

  • >> Question: I THOUGHT I WAS ON THE LIST.

  • >> Question: I THOUGHT I WAS ON THE LIST. I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, THE

  • THE LIST. I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, THE

  • THE LIST. I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, THE ECONOMISTS I SPEAK WITH, THEY

  • I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, THE ECONOMISTS I SPEAK WITH, THEY

  • I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, THE ECONOMISTS I SPEAK WITH, THEY CAN'T AGREE WHETHER YOUR PURE

  • ECONOMISTS I SPEAK WITH, THEY CAN'T AGREE WHETHER YOUR PURE

  • ECONOMISTS I SPEAK WITH, THEY CAN'T AGREE WHETHER YOUR PURE MANDATE WILL JUST BE INFLATION

  • CAN'T AGREE WHETHER YOUR PURE MANDATE WILL JUST BE INFLATION

  • CAN'T AGREE WHETHER YOUR PURE MANDATE WILL JUST BE INFLATION AND THAT HOUSEHOLD RISK WILL BE

  • MANDATE WILL JUST BE INFLATION AND THAT HOUSEHOLD RISK WILL BE

  • MANDATE WILL JUST BE INFLATION AND THAT HOUSEHOLD RISK WILL BE THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM BUT

  • AND THAT HOUSEHOLD RISK WILL BE THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM BUT

  • AND THAT HOUSEHOLD RISK WILL BE THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM BUT FROM THIS STATEMENT, IT SEEMS

  • THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM BUT FROM THIS STATEMENT, IT SEEMS

  • THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM BUT FROM THIS STATEMENT, IT SEEMS LIKE IT'S NO THE NOT THE

  • FROM THIS STATEMENT, IT SEEMS LIKE IT'S NO THE NOT THE

  • FROM THIS STATEMENT, IT SEEMS LIKE IT'S NO THE NOT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM.

  • LIKE IT'S NO THE NOT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM.

  • LIKE IT'S NO THE NOT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. IT HAD A SEAT AT THE TABLE.

  • ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. IT HAD A SEAT AT THE TABLE.

  • ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. IT HAD A SEAT AT THE TABLE. ARE WE, AFTER A DECADE OF

  • IT HAD A SEAT AT THE TABLE. ARE WE, AFTER A DECADE OF

  • IT HAD A SEAT AT THE TABLE. ARE WE, AFTER A DECADE OF INDEBTEDNESS, AT A PLACE WHERE

  • ARE WE, AFTER A DECADE OF INDEBTEDNESS, AT A PLACE WHERE

  • ARE WE, AFTER A DECADE OF INDEBTEDNESS, AT A PLACE WHERE WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL DUAL

  • INDEBTEDNESS, AT A PLACE WHERE WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL DUAL

  • INDEBTEDNESS, AT A PLACE WHERE WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL DUAL MANDATE, INFLATION HERE,

  • WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL DUAL MANDATE, INFLATION HERE,

  • WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL DUAL MANDATE, INFLATION HERE, HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND RISK ON THE

  • MANDATE, INFLATION HERE, HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND RISK ON THE

  • MANDATE, INFLATION HERE, HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND RISK ON THE OTHER SIDE?

  • HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND RISK ON THE OTHER SIDE?

  • HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND RISK ON THE OTHER SIDE? >> I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T

  • OTHER SIDE? >> I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T

  • OTHER SIDE? >> I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T CHARACTERIZE IT AS YOU JUST

  • >> I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T CHARACTERIZE IT AS YOU JUST

  • >> I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T CHARACTERIZE IT AS YOU JUST HAVE.

  • CHARACTERIZE IT AS YOU JUST HAVE.

  • CHARACTERIZE IT AS YOU JUST HAVE. CERTAINLY NOT A DUAL MANDATE.

  • HAVE. CERTAINLY NOT A DUAL MANDATE.

  • HAVE. CERTAINLY NOT A DUAL MANDATE. I JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO

  • CERTAINLY NOT A DUAL MANDATE. I JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO

  • CERTAINLY NOT A DUAL MANDATE. I JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO WHEN OUR PRIMARY MISSION IS AND

  • I JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO WHEN OUR PRIMARY MISSION IS AND

  • I JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO WHEN OUR PRIMARY MISSION IS AND THAT HAS NOT CHANGED.

  • WHEN OUR PRIMARY MISSION IS AND THAT HAS NOT CHANGED.

  • WHEN OUR PRIMARY MISSION IS AND THAT HAS NOT CHANGED. HOWEVER, AS WE'VE COVERED A

  • THAT HAS NOT CHANGED. HOWEVER, AS WE'VE COVERED A

  • THAT HAS NOT CHANGED. HOWEVER, AS WE'VE COVERED A COUPLE OF TIMES ELEVATED

  • HOWEVER, AS WE'VE COVERED A COUPLE OF TIMES ELEVATED

  • HOWEVER, AS WE'VE COVERED A COUPLE OF TIMES ELEVATED VULNERABILITIES, WHY WE CALL

  • COUPLE OF TIMES ELEVATED VULNERABILITIES, WHY WE CALL

  • COUPLE OF TIMES ELEVATED VULNERABILITIES, WHY WE CALL THEM VULNERABILITY AS OPPOSED TO

  • VULNERABILITIES, WHY WE CALL THEM VULNERABILITY AS OPPOSED TO

  • VULNERABILITIES, WHY WE CALL THEM VULNERABILITY AS OPPOSED TO RISK.

  • THEM VULNERABILITY AS OPPOSED TO RISK.

  • THEM VULNERABILITY AS OPPOSED TO RISK. IT'S LIKE A CRACK IN YOUR TREE

  • RISK. IT'S LIKE A CRACK IN YOUR TREE

  • RISK. IT'S LIKE A CRACK IN YOUR TREE AND EVERYTHING IS OKAY UNTIL A

  • IT'S LIKE A CRACK IN YOUR TREE AND EVERYTHING IS OKAY UNTIL A

  • IT'S LIKE A CRACK IN YOUR TREE AND EVERYTHING IS OKAY UNTIL A BAD STORM COMES.

  • AND EVERYTHING IS OKAY UNTIL A BAD STORM COMES.

  • AND EVERYTHING IS OKAY UNTIL A BAD STORM COMES. WHAT THAT MEANS THEN IS IF THERE

  • BAD STORM COMES. WHAT THAT MEANS THEN IS IF THERE

  • BAD STORM COMES. WHAT THAT MEANS THEN IS IF THERE IS A DOWNSIDE SHOCK TO THE

  • WHAT THAT MEANS THEN IS IF THERE IS A DOWNSIDE SHOCK TO THE

  • WHAT THAT MEANS THEN IS IF THERE IS A DOWNSIDE SHOCK TO THE ECONOMY LIKE -- IT DOESN'T

  • IS A DOWNSIDE SHOCK TO THE ECONOMY LIKE -- IT DOESN'T

  • IS A DOWNSIDE SHOCK TO THE ECONOMY LIKE -- IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT IT IS.

  • ECONOMY LIKE -- IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT IT IS.

  • ECONOMY LIKE -- IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT IT IS. BUT IT COMES FROM OUTSIDE

  • MATTER WHAT IT IS. BUT IT COMES FROM OUTSIDE

  • MATTER WHAT IT IS. BUT IT COMES FROM OUTSIDE USUALLY AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS,

  • BUT IT COMES FROM OUTSIDE USUALLY AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS,

  • BUT IT COMES FROM OUTSIDE USUALLY AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS, THE EFFECT OF THAT SHOCK ON THE

  • USUALLY AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS, THE EFFECT OF THAT SHOCK ON THE

  • USUALLY AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS, THE EFFECT OF THAT SHOCK ON THE ECONOMY IS MAGNIFIED BECAUSE OF

  • THE EFFECT OF THAT SHOCK ON THE ECONOMY IS MAGNIFIED BECAUSE OF

  • THE EFFECT OF THAT SHOCK ON THE ECONOMY IS MAGNIFIED BECAUSE OF THOSE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES.

  • ECONOMY IS MAGNIFIED BECAUSE OF THOSE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES.

  • ECONOMY IS MAGNIFIED BECAUSE OF THOSE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES. SO FOR A GIVEN SHOCK, YOU HAVE A

  • THOSE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES. SO FOR A GIVEN SHOCK, YOU HAVE A

  • THOSE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES. SO FOR A GIVEN SHOCK, YOU HAVE A MUCH BIGGER DEVIATION FROM YOUR

  • SO FOR A GIVEN SHOCK, YOU HAVE A MUCH BIGGER DEVIATION FROM YOUR

  • SO FOR A GIVEN SHOCK, YOU HAVE A MUCH BIGGER DEVIATION FROM YOUR INFLATION TARGET AND MUCH HARDER

  • MUCH BIGGER DEVIATION FROM YOUR INFLATION TARGET AND MUCH HARDER

  • MUCH BIGGER DEVIATION FROM YOUR INFLATION TARGET AND MUCH HARDER JOB GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON

  • INFLATION TARGET AND MUCH HARDER JOB GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON

  • INFLATION TARGET AND MUCH HARDER JOB GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK TO KEEP INFLATION ON

  • JOB GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK TO KEEP INFLATION ON

  • JOB GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET OR GET IT BACK TO TARGET.

  • TRACK TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET OR GET IT BACK TO TARGET.

  • TRACK TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET OR GET IT BACK TO TARGET. SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IN A

  • TARGET OR GET IT BACK TO TARGET. SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IN A

  • TARGET OR GET IT BACK TO TARGET. SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IN A TIME SENSE, RIGHT, THAT DECISION

  • SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IN A TIME SENSE, RIGHT, THAT DECISION

  • SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IN A TIME SENSE, RIGHT, THAT DECISION ABOUT WHETHER YOU NEED TO KEEP

  • TIME SENSE, RIGHT, THAT DECISION ABOUT WHETHER YOU NEED TO KEEP

  • TIME SENSE, RIGHT, THAT DECISION ABOUT WHETHER YOU NEED TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET EVERY MINUTE

  • ABOUT WHETHER YOU NEED TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET EVERY MINUTE

  • ABOUT WHETHER YOU NEED TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET EVERY MINUTE OR EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS

  • INFLATION ON TARGET EVERY MINUTE OR EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS

  • INFLATION ON TARGET EVERY MINUTE OR EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS MATTERS QUITE A LOT, RIGHT.

  • OR EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS MATTERS QUITE A LOT, RIGHT.

  • OR EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS MATTERS QUITE A LOT, RIGHT. SO IF YOU TRY TO DO IT REALLY

  • MATTERS QUITE A LOT, RIGHT. SO IF YOU TRY TO DO IT REALLY

  • MATTERS QUITE A LOT, RIGHT. SO IF YOU TRY TO DO IT REALLY RAPIDLY, YOU MAY BE CREATING

  • SO IF YOU TRY TO DO IT REALLY RAPIDLY, YOU MAY BE CREATING

  • SO IF YOU TRY TO DO IT REALLY RAPIDLY, YOU MAY BE CREATING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT

  • RAPIDLY, YOU MAY BE CREATING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT

  • RAPIDLY, YOU MAY BE CREATING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT YOU WOULD REGRET LATER SO YOU

  • FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT YOU WOULD REGRET LATER SO YOU

  • FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT YOU WOULD REGRET LATER SO YOU NEED TO BE MINDFUL THAT THERE

  • YOU WOULD REGRET LATER SO YOU NEED TO BE MINDFUL THAT THERE

  • YOU WOULD REGRET LATER SO YOU NEED TO BE MINDFUL THAT THERE ARE TRADE-OFFS THROUGH TIME AND

  • NEED TO BE MINDFUL THAT THERE ARE TRADE-OFFS THROUGH TIME AND

  • NEED TO BE MINDFUL THAT THERE ARE TRADE-OFFS THROUGH TIME AND THEY MATTER TO THE INFLATION

  • ARE TRADE-OFFS THROUGH TIME AND THEY MATTER TO THE INFLATION

  • ARE TRADE-OFFS THROUGH TIME AND THEY MATTER TO THE INFLATION TARGETING RESPONSIBILITY.

  • THEY MATTER TO THE INFLATION TARGETING RESPONSIBILITY.

  • THEY MATTER TO THE INFLATION TARGETING RESPONSIBILITY. SO IT ALL DIS'TILS DOWN TO

  • TARGETING RESPONSIBILITY. SO IT ALL DIS'TILS DOWN TO

  • TARGETING RESPONSIBILITY. SO IT ALL DIS'TILS DOWN TO INFLATION MANDATE.

  • SO IT ALL DIS'TILS DOWN TO INFLATION MANDATE.

  • SO IT ALL DIS'TILS DOWN TO INFLATION MANDATE. I THINK WE'RE REACHING A MUCH

  • INFLATION MANDATE. I THINK WE'RE REACHING A MUCH

  • INFLATION MANDATE. I THINK WE'RE REACHING A MUCH MORE, LET'S SAY, RIGOROUS

  • I THINK WE'RE REACHING A MUCH MORE, LET'S SAY, RIGOROUS

  • I THINK WE'RE REACHING A MUCH MORE, LET'S SAY, RIGOROUS UNDERSTANDING OF HOI FINANCIAL

  • MORE, LET'S SAY, RIGOROUS UNDERSTANDING OF HOI FINANCIAL

  • MORE, LET'S SAY, RIGOROUS UNDERSTANDING OF HOI FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES FIGURE INTO THAT

  • UNDERSTANDING OF HOI FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES FIGURE INTO THAT

  • UNDERSTANDING OF HOI FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES FIGURE INTO THAT TRAPS MISSION MECHANISM AND HOW

  • VULNERABILITIES FIGURE INTO THAT TRAPS MISSION MECHANISM AND HOW

  • VULNERABILITIES FIGURE INTO THAT TRAPS MISSION MECHANISM AND HOW IT REACTS WITH POLICY.

  • TRAPS MISSION MECHANISM AND HOW IT REACTS WITH POLICY.

  • TRAPS MISSION MECHANISM AND HOW IT REACTS WITH POLICY. SO, YEAH, I'VE -- SINCE 2013,

  • IT REACTS WITH POLICY. SO, YEAH, I'VE -- SINCE 2013,

  • IT REACTS WITH POLICY. SO, YEAH, I'VE -- SINCE 2013, WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS --

  • SO, YEAH, I'VE -- SINCE 2013, WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS --

  • SO, YEAH, I'VE -- SINCE 2013, WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS -- YOU KNOW, WHAT THESE TRADEOFFS

  • WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS -- YOU KNOW, WHAT THESE TRADEOFFS

  • WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS -- YOU KNOW, WHAT THESE TRADEOFFS LOOK LIKE.

  • YOU KNOW, WHAT THESE TRADEOFFS LOOK LIKE.

  • YOU KNOW, WHAT THESE TRADEOFFS LOOK LIKE. OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT HIGH

  • LOOK LIKE. OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT HIGH

  • LOOK LIKE. OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT HIGH FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL

  • OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT HIGH FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL

  • OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT HIGH FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL THIS

  • FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL THIS

  • FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL THIS AND IN SOME WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN

  • THIS AND IN SOME WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN

  • THIS AND IN SOME WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN WORSE AND IN OTHER WAYS, THEY'VE

  • AND IN SOME WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN WORSE AND IN OTHER WAYS, THEY'VE

  • AND IN SOME WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN WORSE AND IN OTHER WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN BETTER, BECAUSE WE'VE GOT

  • WORSE AND IN OTHER WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN BETTER, BECAUSE WE'VE GOT

  • WORSE AND IN OTHER WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN BETTER, BECAUSE WE'VE GOT B TO AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHICH

  • GOTTEN BETTER, BECAUSE WE'VE GOT B TO AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHICH

  • GOTTEN BETTER, BECAUSE WE'VE GOT B TO AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHICH TAKE THAT TRADEOFF AND SHIFT IT

  • B TO AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHICH TAKE THAT TRADEOFF AND SHIFT IT

  • B TO AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHICH TAKE THAT TRADEOFF AND SHIFT IT BACK TOWARDS, OKAY, NOW IT'S NOT

  • TAKE THAT TRADEOFF AND SHIFT IT BACK TOWARDS, OKAY, NOW IT'S NOT

  • TAKE THAT TRADEOFF AND SHIFT IT BACK TOWARDS, OKAY, NOW IT'S NOT AS THREATENING.

  • BACK TOWARDS, OKAY, NOW IT'S NOT AS THREATENING.

  • BACK TOWARDS, OKAY, NOW IT'S NOT AS THREATENING. SO THOSE THINGS MATTER QUITE A

  • AS THREATENING. SO THOSE THINGS MATTER QUITE A

  • AS THREATENING. SO THOSE THINGS MATTER QUITE A LOT TO THAT CALCULUS.

  • SO THOSE THINGS MATTER QUITE A LOT TO THAT CALCULUS.

  • SO THOSE THINGS MATTER QUITE A LOT TO THAT CALCULUS. SO YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY COMPARE

  • LOT TO THAT CALCULUS. SO YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY COMPARE

  • LOT TO THAT CALCULUS. SO YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY COMPARE TODAY TO, SAY, FIVE YEARS AGO,

  • SO YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY COMPARE TODAY TO, SAY, FIVE YEARS AGO,

  • SO YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY COMPARE TODAY TO, SAY, FIVE YEARS AGO, BECAUSE IN BETWEEN WE'VE HAD

  • TODAY TO, SAY, FIVE YEARS AGO, BECAUSE IN BETWEEN WE'VE HAD

  • TODAY TO, SAY, FIVE YEARS AGO, BECAUSE IN BETWEEN WE'VE HAD SOME REALLY GOOD MACRO

  • BECAUSE IN BETWEEN WE'VE HAD SOME REALLY GOOD MACRO

  • BECAUSE IN BETWEEN WE'VE HAD SOME REALLY GOOD MACRO CREDENTIAL MOVES THAT REDUCE

  • SOME REALLY GOOD MACRO CREDENTIAL MOVES THAT REDUCE

  • SOME REALLY GOOD MACRO CREDENTIAL MOVES THAT REDUCE RISKS OF FINANCIAL

  • CREDENTIAL MOVES THAT REDUCE RISKS OF FINANCIAL

  • CREDENTIAL MOVES THAT REDUCE RISKS OF FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ERUPTING INTO A

  • RISKS OF FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ERUPTING INTO A

  • RISKS OF FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ERUPTING INTO A MAJOR PROBLEM.

  • VULNERABILITIES ERUPTING INTO A MAJOR PROBLEM.

  • VULNERABILITIES ERUPTING INTO A MAJOR PROBLEM. >> Question: JUST QUICKLY, AT

  • MAJOR PROBLEM. >> Question: JUST QUICKLY, AT

  • MAJOR PROBLEM. >> Question: JUST QUICKLY, AT THE BEGINNING, WE MENTIONED BACK

  • >> Question: JUST QUICKLY, AT THE BEGINNING, WE MENTIONED BACK

  • >> Question: JUST QUICKLY, AT THE BEGINNING, WE MENTIONED BACK IN 2013, WHEN YOU GOT THE JOB,

  • THE BEGINNING, WE MENTIONED BACK IN 2013, WHEN YOU GOT THE JOB,

  • THE BEGINNING, WE MENTIONED BACK IN 2013, WHEN YOU GOT THE JOB, THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU

  • IN 2013, WHEN YOU GOT THE JOB, THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU

  • IN 2013, WHEN YOU GOT THE JOB, THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU WERE WAITING FOR THAT HANDOFF

  • THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU WERE WAITING FOR THAT HANDOFF

  • THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU WERE WAITING FOR THAT HANDOFF FROM THE CONSUMER TO THE

  • WERE WAITING FOR THAT HANDOFF FROM THE CONSUMER TO THE

  • WERE WAITING FOR THAT HANDOFF FROM THE CONSUMER TO THE EXPORTERS TO MANUFACTURERS,

  • FROM THE CONSUMER TO THE EXPORTERS TO MANUFACTURERS,

  • FROM THE CONSUMER TO THE EXPORTERS TO MANUFACTURERS, OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SIDELINED A

  • EXPORTERS TO MANUFACTURERS, OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SIDELINED A

  • EXPORTERS TO MANUFACTURERS, OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SIDELINED A NUMBER OF TIMES.

  • OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SIDELINED A NUMBER OF TIMES.

  • OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SIDELINED A NUMBER OF TIMES. BUT HOPE SEEMS TO BE BACK HERE

  • NUMBER OF TIMES. BUT HOPE SEEMS TO BE BACK HERE

  • NUMBER OF TIMES. BUT HOPE SEEMS TO BE BACK HERE BY 2021, EXPORTS WILL BE DOUBLE

  • BUT HOPE SEEMS TO BE BACK HERE BY 2021, EXPORTS WILL BE DOUBLE

  • BUT HOPE SEEMS TO BE BACK HERE BY 2021, EXPORTS WILL BE DOUBLE THEIR CONTRIBUTION.

  • BY 2021, EXPORTS WILL BE DOUBLE THEIR CONTRIBUTION.

  • BY 2021, EXPORTS WILL BE DOUBLE THEIR CONTRIBUTION. IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT -- IS

  • THEIR CONTRIBUTION. IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT -- IS

  • THEIR CONTRIBUTION. IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT -- IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOING

  • IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT -- IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOING

  • IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT -- IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOING ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE PRIVATE

  • THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOING ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE PRIVATE

  • THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOING ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO ENTICE THE EXPORTERS,

  • ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO ENTICE THE EXPORTERS,

  • ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO ENTICE THE EXPORTERS, THE MANUFACTURERS?

  • SECTOR TO ENTICE THE EXPORTERS, THE MANUFACTURERS?

  • SECTOR TO ENTICE THE EXPORTERS, THE MANUFACTURERS? >> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID

  • THE MANUFACTURERS? >> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID

  • THE MANUFACTURERS? >> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID BEFORE THAT LIFE WOULD OF LOOKED

  • >> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID BEFORE THAT LIFE WOULD OF LOOKED

  • >> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID BEFORE THAT LIFE WOULD OF LOOKED A LOT DIFFERENT HAD WE NOT HAD

  • BEFORE THAT LIFE WOULD OF LOOKED A LOT DIFFERENT HAD WE NOT HAD

  • BEFORE THAT LIFE WOULD OF LOOKED A LOT DIFFERENT HAD WE NOT HAD THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM THAT

  • A LOT DIFFERENT HAD WE NOT HAD THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM THAT

  • A LOT DIFFERENT HAD WE NOT HAD THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM THAT THE GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE.

  • THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM THAT THE GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE.

  • THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM THAT THE GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE. IT DOESN'T SHOW A NEW

  • THE GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE. IT DOESN'T SHOW A NEW

  • THE GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE. IT DOESN'T SHOW A NEW CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH, BECAUSE

  • IT DOESN'T SHOW A NEW CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH, BECAUSE

  • IT DOESN'T SHOW A NEW CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH, BECAUSE IT'S IN THE BASELINE FOR SEVERAL

  • CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH, BECAUSE IT'S IN THE BASELINE FOR SEVERAL

  • CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH, BECAUSE IT'S IN THE BASELINE FOR SEVERAL YEARS NOW.

  • IT'S IN THE BASELINE FOR SEVERAL YEARS NOW.

  • IT'S IN THE BASELINE FOR SEVERAL YEARS NOW. BUT IT'S $18 BILLION PER YEAR,

  • YEARS NOW. BUT IT'S $18 BILLION PER YEAR,

  • YEARS NOW. BUT IT'S $18 BILLION PER YEAR, SO THAT'S CLOSE TO 1% OF PDP

  • BUT IT'S $18 BILLION PER YEAR, SO THAT'S CLOSE TO 1% OF PDP

  • BUT IT'S $18 BILLION PER YEAR, SO THAT'S CLOSE TO 1% OF PDP EVERY YEAR COMING FROM THAT

  • SO THAT'S CLOSE TO 1% OF PDP EVERY YEAR COMING FROM THAT

  • SO THAT'S CLOSE TO 1% OF PDP EVERY YEAR COMING FROM THAT SOURCE SO THAT'S AN IMPORTANT

  • EVERY YEAR COMING FROM THAT SOURCE SO THAT'S AN IMPORTANT

  • EVERY YEAR COMING FROM THAT SOURCE SO THAT'S AN IMPORTANT THING WHICH ALLOWED INTEREST

  • SOURCE SO THAT'S AN IMPORTANT THING WHICH ALLOWED INTEREST

  • SOURCE SO THAT'S AN IMPORTANT THING WHICH ALLOWED INTEREST RATES TO NOT GO TO ZERO OR BELOW

  • THING WHICH ALLOWED INTEREST RATES TO NOT GO TO ZERO OR BELOW

  • THING WHICH ALLOWED INTEREST RATES TO NOT GO TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO PERHAPS IN 2015/16.

  • RATES TO NOT GO TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO PERHAPS IN 2015/16.

  • RATES TO NOT GO TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO PERHAPS IN 2015/16. I'VE SAID THAT IN PUBLISHED

  • ZERO PERHAPS IN 2015/16. I'VE SAID THAT IN PUBLISHED

  • ZERO PERHAPS IN 2015/16. I'VE SAID THAT IN PUBLISHED PAPERS.

  • I'VE SAID THAT IN PUBLISHED PAPERS.

  • I'VE SAID THAT IN PUBLISHED PAPERS. SO, YES, IT'S BEEN AN IMPORTANT

  • PAPERS. SO, YES, IT'S BEEN AN IMPORTANT

  • PAPERS. SO, YES, IT'S BEEN AN IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION TO HOW WE'VE GOTTEN

  • SO, YES, IT'S BEEN AN IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION TO HOW WE'VE GOTTEN

  • SO, YES, IT'S BEEN AN IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION TO HOW WE'VE GOTTEN HERE, AND SO ALL THAT TELLS YOU,

  • CONTRIBUTION TO HOW WE'VE GOTTEN HERE, AND SO ALL THAT TELLS YOU,

  • CONTRIBUTION TO HOW WE'VE GOTTEN HERE, AND SO ALL THAT TELLS YOU, THOUGH, IS THAT THE HEADWINDS

  • HERE, AND SO ALL THAT TELLS YOU, THOUGH, IS THAT THE HEADWINDS

  • HERE, AND SO ALL THAT TELLS YOU, THOUGH, IS THAT THE HEADWINDS THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING ARE FAR

  • THOUGH, IS THAT THE HEADWINDS THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING ARE FAR

  • THOUGH, IS THAT THE HEADWINDS THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING ARE FAR GREATER AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT

  • THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING ARE FAR GREATER AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT

  • THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING ARE FAR GREATER AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ENVISIONED BACK IN 2013.

  • GREATER AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ENVISIONED BACK IN 2013.

  • GREATER AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ENVISIONED BACK IN 2013. I MEAN, WE -- YOU'RE RIGHT.

  • WE ENVISIONED BACK IN 2013. I MEAN, WE -- YOU'RE RIGHT.

  • WE ENVISIONED BACK IN 2013. I MEAN, WE -- YOU'RE RIGHT. WE THOUGHT THE NATURAL SEQUENCE

  • I MEAN, WE -- YOU'RE RIGHT. WE THOUGHT THE NATURAL SEQUENCE

  • I MEAN, WE -- YOU'RE RIGHT. WE THOUGHT THE NATURAL SEQUENCE WOULD HAPPEN PRETTY RAPIDLY AND

  • WE THOUGHT THE NATURAL SEQUENCE WOULD HAPPEN PRETTY RAPIDLY AND

  • WE THOUGHT THE NATURAL SEQUENCE WOULD HAPPEN PRETTY RAPIDLY AND THE FIRST THING THAT WENT WRONG

  • WOULD HAPPEN PRETTY RAPIDLY AND THE FIRST THING THAT WENT WRONG

  • WOULD HAPPEN PRETTY RAPIDLY AND THE FIRST THING THAT WENT WRONG THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WORLD

  • THE FIRST THING THAT WENT WRONG THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WORLD

  • THE FIRST THING THAT WENT WRONG THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WORLD RECOVERED, EXPORTS DIDN'T

  • THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WORLD RECOVERED, EXPORTS DIDN'T

  • THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WORLD RECOVERED, EXPORTS DIDN'T REVE

  • RECOVERED, EXPORTS DIDN'T REVE

  • RECOVERED, EXPORTS DIDN'T REVE AND DEEPER RESEARCH SHOWED US

  • REVE AND DEEPER RESEARCH SHOWED US

  • REVE AND DEEPER RESEARCH SHOWED US THAT, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE

  • AND DEEPER RESEARCH SHOWED US THAT, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE

  • AND DEEPER RESEARCH SHOWED US THAT, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE LOST A LOT OF EXPORTERS;

  • THAT, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE LOST A LOT OF EXPORTERS;

  • THAT, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE LOST A LOT OF EXPORTERS; THEREFORE, THERE WAS NO EXPORTER

  • LOST A LOT OF EXPORTERS; THEREFORE, THERE WAS NO EXPORTER

  • LOST A LOT OF EXPORTERS; THEREFORE, THERE WAS NO EXPORTER TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH DEMAND

  • THEREFORE, THERE WAS NO EXPORTER TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH DEMAND

  • THEREFORE, THERE WAS NO EXPORTER TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH DEMAND HAD GONE BACK UP.

  • TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH DEMAND HAD GONE BACK UP.

  • TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH DEMAND HAD GONE BACK UP. SO THROUGH THOSE YEARS, WE

  • HAD GONE BACK UP. SO THROUGH THOSE YEARS, WE

  • HAD GONE BACK UP. SO THROUGH THOSE YEARS, WE REBUILT THE EXPORT SECTOR WITH

  • SO THROUGH THOSE YEARS, WE REBUILT THE EXPORT SECTOR WITH

  • SO THROUGH THOSE YEARS, WE REBUILT THE EXPORT SECTOR WITH COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANIES.

  • REBUILT THE EXPORT SECTOR WITH COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANIES.

  • REBUILT THE EXPORT SECTOR WITH COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANIES. NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES.

  • COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANIES. NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES.

  • COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANIES. NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES. SO THAT'S BEEN SLOW GOING.

  • NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES. SO THAT'S BEEN SLOW GOING.

  • NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES. SO THAT'S BEEN SLOW GOING. INVESTMENT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY

  • SO THAT'S BEEN SLOW GOING. INVESTMENT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY

  • SO THAT'S BEEN SLOW GOING. INVESTMENT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY A COUPLE OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS,

  • INVESTMENT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY A COUPLE OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS,

  • INVESTMENT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY A COUPLE OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS, PARTICULARLY THE NAFTA

  • A COUPLE OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS, PARTICULARLY THE NAFTA

  • A COUPLE OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS, PARTICULARLY THE NAFTA UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL TRADE

  • PARTICULARLY THE NAFTA UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL TRADE

  • PARTICULARLY THE NAFTA UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTY.

  • UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTY.

  • UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTY. SO ALL OF THAT MATTERS A GREAT

  • UNCERTAINTY. SO ALL OF THAT MATTERS A GREAT

  • UNCERTAINTY. SO ALL OF THAT MATTERS A GREAT DEAL TO WHAT WE CALL THE MACRO

  • SO ALL OF THAT MATTERS A GREAT DEAL TO WHAT WE CALL THE MACRO

  • SO ALL OF THAT MATTERS A GREAT DEAL TO WHAT WE CALL THE MACRO ECONOMIC RISKS, AND SO JUST

  • DEAL TO WHAT WE CALL THE MACRO ECONOMIC RISKS, AND SO JUST

  • DEAL TO WHAT WE CALL THE MACRO ECONOMIC RISKS, AND SO JUST GETTING TO HOME, AS WE DESCRIBE

  • ECONOMIC RISKS, AND SO JUST GETTING TO HOME, AS WE DESCRIBE

  • ECONOMIC RISKS, AND SO JUST GETTING TO HOME, AS WE DESCRIBE IT, IS QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT

  • GETTING TO HOME, AS WE DESCRIBE IT, IS QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT

  • GETTING TO HOME, AS WE DESCRIBE IT, IS QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT GIVEN ALL OF THOSE THINGS THAT

  • IT, IS QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT GIVEN ALL OF THOSE THINGS THAT

  • IT, IS QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT GIVEN ALL OF THOSE THINGS THAT OCCURRED AND WE ARE SOLIDLY AT

  • GIVEN ALL OF THOSE THINGS THAT OCCURRED AND WE ARE SOLIDLY AT

  • GIVEN ALL OF THOSE THINGS THAT OCCURRED AND WE ARE SOLIDLY AT HOME BUT STILL WITH INTEREST

  • OCCURRED AND WE ARE SOLIDLY AT HOME BUT STILL WITH INTEREST

  • OCCURRED AND WE ARE SOLIDLY AT HOME BUT STILL WITH INTEREST RATES REALLY LOW, STILL WITH

  • HOME BUT STILL WITH INTEREST RATES REALLY LOW, STILL WITH

  • HOME BUT STILL WITH INTEREST RATES REALLY LOW, STILL WITH FISCAL POLICY MAKING A

  • RATES REALLY LOW, STILL WITH FISCAL POLICY MAKING A

  • RATES REALLY LOW, STILL WITH FISCAL POLICY MAKING A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION, SO

  • FISCAL POLICY MAKING A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION, SO

  • FISCAL POLICY MAKING A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION, SO IT'S NOT ALL BEING DONE BY THE

  • SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION, SO IT'S NOT ALL BEING DONE BY THE

  • SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION, SO IT'S NOT ALL BEING DONE BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR ECONOMY.

  • IT'S NOT ALL BEING DONE BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR ECONOMY.

  • IT'S NOT ALL BEING DONE BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR ECONOMY. SO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE

  • PRIVATE SECTOR ECONOMY. SO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE

  • PRIVATE SECTOR ECONOMY. SO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE DONE.

  • SO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE DONE.

  • SO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE DONE. IT'S NOT OVER.

  • DONE. IT'S NOT OVER.

  • DONE. IT'S NOT OVER. BUT AS FOR YOUR PRIOR QUESTION,

  • IT'S NOT OVER. BUT AS FOR YOUR PRIOR QUESTION,

  • IT'S NOT OVER. BUT AS FOR YOUR PRIOR QUESTION, YOU KNOW, HAVING THOSE THINGS AT

  • BUT AS FOR YOUR PRIOR QUESTION, YOU KNOW, HAVING THOSE THINGS AT

  • BUT AS FOR YOUR PRIOR QUESTION, YOU KNOW, HAVING THOSE THINGS AT THE TABLE, I MEAN, IT'S

  • YOU KNOW, HAVING THOSE THINGS AT THE TABLE, I MEAN, IT'S

  • YOU KNOW, HAVING THOSE THINGS AT THE TABLE, I MEAN, IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT

  • THE TABLE, I MEAN, IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT

  • THE TABLE, I MEAN, IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT WAS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES

  • IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT WAS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES

  • IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT WAS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES AND SOME INDEPENDENT THING,

  • WAS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES AND SOME INDEPENDENT THING,

  • WAS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES AND SOME INDEPENDENT THING, RIGHT, SO IF -- DO YOU WANT TO

  • AND SOME INDEPENDENT THING, RIGHT, SO IF -- DO YOU WANT TO

  • AND SOME INDEPENDENT THING, RIGHT, SO IF -- DO YOU WANT TO ADD ANYTHING ABOUT THAT?

  • RIGHT, SO IF -- DO YOU WANT TO ADD ANYTHING ABOUT THAT?

  • RIGHT, SO IF -- DO YOU WANT TO ADD ANYTHING ABOUT THAT? >> I JUST THOUGHT THAT

  • ADD ANYTHING ABOUT THAT? >> I JUST THOUGHT THAT

  • ADD ANYTHING ABOUT THAT? >> I JUST THOUGHT THAT EVERYTHING THAT THE GOVERNOR

  • >> I JUST THOUGHT THAT EVERYTHING THAT THE GOVERNOR

  • >> I JUST THOUGHT THAT EVERYTHING THAT THE GOVERNOR SAID WAS OUTLINED PRETTY CLEARLY

  • EVERYTHING THAT THE GOVERNOR SAID WAS OUTLINED PRETTY CLEARLY

  • EVERYTHING THAT THE GOVERNOR SAID WAS OUTLINED PRETTY CLEARLY IN OUR INFLATION CONTROL

  • SAID WAS OUTLINED PRETTY CLEARLY IN OUR INFLATION CONTROL

  • SAID WAS OUTLINED PRETTY CLEARLY IN OUR INFLATION CONTROL AGREEMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT

  • IN OUR INFLATION CONTROL AGREEMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT

  • IN OUR INFLATION CONTROL AGREEMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT THAT WE DID IN 2016.

  • AGREEMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT THAT WE DID IN 2016.

  • AGREEMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT THAT WE DID IN 2016. WE'RE REDOING IT FOR 20/21 BUT

  • THAT WE DID IN 2016. WE'RE REDOING IT FOR 20/21 BUT

  • THAT WE DID IN 2016. WE'RE REDOING IT FOR 20/21 BUT THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A SINGLE

  • WE'RE REDOING IT FOR 20/21 BUT THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A SINGLE

  • WE'RE REDOING IT FOR 20/21 BUT THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A SINGLE TARGET BUT WE SHOULD TAKE INTO

  • THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A SINGLE TARGET BUT WE SHOULD TAKE INTO

  • THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A SINGLE TARGET BUT WE SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY

  • TARGET BUT WE SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY

  • TARGET BUT WE SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE

  • ACCOUNT CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE

  • ACCOUNT CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE THAT TARGET OUTSIDE OUR USUAL

  • AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE THAT TARGET OUTSIDE OUR USUAL

  • AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE THAT TARGET OUTSIDE OUR USUAL HORIZON, WHICH IS 68 QUARTERS,

  • THAT TARGET OUTSIDE OUR USUAL HORIZON, WHICH IS 68 QUARTERS,

  • THAT TARGET OUTSIDE OUR USUAL HORIZON, WHICH IS 68 QUARTERS, THINGS LIKE FINANCIAL STABILITY,

  • HORIZON, WHICH IS 68 QUARTERS, THINGS LIKE FINANCIAL STABILITY,

  • HORIZON, WHICH IS 68 QUARTERS, THINGS LIKE FINANCIAL STABILITY, EVEN WITHIN OUR HORIZON, WE

  • THINGS LIKE FINANCIAL STABILITY, EVEN WITHIN OUR HORIZON, WE

  • THINGS LIKE FINANCIAL STABILITY, EVEN WITHIN OUR HORIZON, WE SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT HOW

  • EVEN WITHIN OUR HORIZON, WE SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT HOW

  • EVEN WITHIN OUR HORIZON, WE SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT HOW WE'RE STABILIZING THE ECONOMY,

  • SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT HOW WE'RE STABILIZING THE ECONOMY,

  • SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT HOW WE'RE STABILIZING THE ECONOMY, WHERE EMPLOYMENT IS.

  • WE'RE STABILIZING THE ECONOMY, WHERE EMPLOYMENT IS.

  • WE'RE STABILIZING THE ECONOMY, WHERE EMPLOYMENT IS. THESE ARE ALL THINGS WE TAKE

  • WHERE EMPLOYMENT IS. THESE ARE ALL THINGS WE TAKE

  • WHERE EMPLOYMENT IS. THESE ARE ALL THINGS WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AND SO IT'S NOTHING

  • THESE ARE ALL THINGS WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AND SO IT'S NOTHING

  • THESE ARE ALL THINGS WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AND SO IT'S NOTHING NEW THAT WE'VE INTRODUCED.

  • INTO ACCOUNT AND SO IT'S NOTHING NEW THAT WE'VE INTRODUCED.

  • INTO ACCOUNT AND SO IT'S NOTHING NEW THAT WE'VE INTRODUCED. [ Please S

THOUGH

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