Subtitles section Play video Print subtitles THOUGH THOUGH THOUGH IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY THOUGH IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY THOUGH IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS IN SHORT, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, LAST YEAR WAS IN A STRONGER POS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH THAN WE PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED, OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH INFLATION NEAR TARGET. OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH INFLATION NEAR TARGET. OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY WITH INFLATION NEAR TARGET. MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S INFLATION NEAR TARGET. MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S INFLATION NEAR TARGET. MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW MUCH OF GOVERNING COUNCIL'S DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN DELIBERATIONS FOCUSED ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT PERSISTENT THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT BE IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT BE IN THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY MIGHT BE THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A BE THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A BE THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% THE BANK'S OUTLOOK IS FOR A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A REBOUND IN GROWTH TO ABOUT 1.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND A PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE PICKUP TO ABOUT 2% AFTER THAT. SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE SUPPORTING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER VIEW THAT THE SLOWDOWN IN LATE 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL 2019 MAY REFLECT A GREATER PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. PASS-THROUGH FROM INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP DEVELOPMENTS THAN PREVIOUSED. IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS IN WHICH CASE, THE RECENT PICKUP IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS REASSURING. IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS REASSURING. IN GLOBAL INDICATORS IS REASSURING. ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE REASSURING. ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE REASSURING. ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME ANOTHER SUPPORTIVE INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED INTERPRETATION IS THAT SOME GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. GROWTH INDICATORS WERE AFFECTED BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON BY TEMPORARY FACTORS. THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS THIS INCLUDED AN EARLY WINTER ON THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS AND STRIKES. THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS AND STRIKES. THE PRAIRIES, PIPELINE SHUTDOWNS AND STRIKES. A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT AND STRIKES. A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT AND STRIKES. A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS A POSITIVE READING ON EMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE IN DECEMBER REINFORCED THIS INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES INTERPRETATION ALONG WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST UNDERSTANDING THAT ON-LINE SALES WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE WERE VERY STRONG THIS PAST HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN HOLIDAY SEASON AND MUCH OF THESE ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA. ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA. ARE NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA. COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE RETAIL SALES DATA. COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE RETAIL SALES DATA. COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN COUNTERING THIS VIEW WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE THE POSSIBILITY THAT CANADIAN CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE CAUTIOUS. CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE CAUTIOUS. CONSUMERS HAVE TURNED MORE CAUTIOUS. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL CAUTIOUS. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL CAUTIOUS. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS OR ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING ELEVATED HOUSEHOLD DEBT OR LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE LAYOFFS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. SECTOR AND IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS IN CERTAIN PROVINCES. NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER NOW, THIS INTERPRETATION WAS REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE REINFORCED BY NEGATIVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE FOURTH. CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE FOURTH. CONFIDENCE DATA DURING THE FOURTH. HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE FOURTH. HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE FOURTH. HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT HIGHER ESTIMATES OF THE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE AND SOFT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH. SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SO THESE INGREDIENTS MIGHT POINT TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SLOWDOWN. TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SLOWDOWN. TO A MORE PROLONGED CONSUMER SLOWDOWN. THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. SLOWDOWN. THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. SLOWDOWN. THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE THIS IS NOT OUR FORECAST. BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE BUT WE AGREED TO MONITOR THE DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE RISK IN MIND. DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE RISK IN MIND. DATA CLOSELY WITH THIS DOWNSIDE RISK IN MIND. IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY RISK IN MIND. IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY RISK IN MIND. IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER IN THIS RESPECT, WEEKLY SURVEY DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN SOME TIME IN DECEMBER. ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, ALSO, HOUSING REMAINS SOLID IN MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS MOST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN EVEN IF IT IS GROWING LESS QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN 2019. QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN 2019. QUICKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER IN 2019. IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED 2019. IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED 2019. IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS IN OCTOBER, WE DELIBERATED WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO COMING FROM OUTSIDE CANADA WERE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES. SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES. SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MOVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT LOWER INTEREST RATES. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT LOWER INTEREST RATES. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT. AT THAT TIME, WE CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT. GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED THEY WERE NOT. GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED THEY WERE NOT. GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING GIVEN THE TRADEOFF THAT WE FACED AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING INCREASED FINANCIAL AGAINST POTENTIALLY FUELLING INCREASED FINANCIAL INCREASED FINANCIAL INCREASED FINANCIAL VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE VULNERABILIT DECISION, WE BEGAN EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE OF EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE OF EXERCISE WITH REDUCED DOWN SIDE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE OF CANADA, AS EXPECTED, BUT AT THE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE OF CANADA, AS EXPECTED, BUT AT THE RISKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE OF CANADA, AS EXPECTED, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, A CRYSTALLIZATION OF CANADA, AS EXPECTED, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, A CRYSTALLIZATION OF CANADA, AS EXPECTED, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, A CRYSTALLIZATION OF SOME DOMESTIC DOWN SIDE RISKS. SAME TIME, A CRYSTALLIZATION OF SOME DOMESTIC DOWN SIDE RISKS. SAME TIME, A CRYSTALLIZATION OF SOME DOMESTIC DOWN SIDE RISKS. AFTER TAKING THESE DEVELOPMENTS SOME DOMESTIC DOWN SIDE RISKS. AFTER TAKING THESE DEVELOPMENTS SOME DOMESTIC DOWN SIDE RISKS. AFTER TAKING THESE DEVELOPMENTS ON BOARD, OUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED AFTER TAKING THESE DEVELOPMENTS ON BOARD, OUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED AFTER TAKING THESE DEVELOPMENTS ON BOARD, OUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT OVERALL EXCESS CAPACITY IN ON BOARD, OUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT OVERALL EXCESS CAPACITY IN ON BOARD, OUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT OVERALL EXCESS CAPACITY IN THE CANADIAN ECONOMYD. THAT OVERALL EXCESS CAPACITY IN THE CANADIAN ECONOMYD. THAT OVERALL EXCESS CAPACITY IN THE CANADIAN ECONOMYD. WHICH WILL BRING A DEGREE OF THE CANADIAN ECONOMYD. WHICH WILL BRING A DEGREE OF THE CANADIAN ECONOMYD. WHICH WILL BRING A DEGREE OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION WHICH WILL BRING A DEGREE OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION WHICH WILL BRING A DEGREE OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN CHART 15 OF OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN CHART 15 OF OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN CHART 15 OF THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN CHART 15 OF THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN CHART 15 OF THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT. LET ME MAKE TWO COMMENTS RELATED THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT. LET ME MAKE TWO COMMENTS RELATED THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT. LET ME MAKE TWO COMMENTS RELATED TO THIS: THE FIRST, WE BELIEVE LET ME MAKE TWO COMMENTS RELATED TO THIS: THE FIRST, WE BELIEVE LET ME MAKE TWO COMMENTS RELATED TO THIS: THE FIRST, WE BELIEVE THAT THE EXCESS CAPACITY IS NOT TO THIS: THE FIRST, WE BELIEVE THAT THE EXCESS CAPACITY IS NOT TO THIS: THE FIRST, WE BELIEVE THAT THE EXCESS CAPACITY IS NOT UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, BUT IT IS THAT THE EXCESS CAPACITY IS NOT UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, BUT IT IS THAT THE EXCESS CAPACITY IS NOT UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, BUT IT IS CONCENTRATED ON THE PRAIRIES AND UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, BUT IT IS CONCENTRATED ON THE PRAIRIES AND UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, BUT IT IS CONCENTRATED ON THE PRAIRIES AND IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR. CONCENTRATED ON THE PRAIRIES AND IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR. CONCENTRATED ON THE PRAIRIES AND IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR. SECOND, OUR ESTIMATE OF THE IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR. SECOND, OUR ESTIMATE OF THE IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR. SECOND, OUR ESTIMATE OF THE OUTPUT GAP IS BASED ON A SECOND, OUR ESTIMATE OF THE OUTPUT GAP IS BASED ON A SECOND, OUR ESTIMATE OF THE OUTPUT GAP IS BASED ON A PARTIALLY UPDATED ESTIMATE OF OUTPUT GAP IS BASED ON A PARTIALLY UPDATED ESTIMATE OF OUTPUT GAP IS BASED ON A PARTIALLY UPDATED ESTIMATE OF THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL. PARTIALLY UPDATED ESTIMATE OF THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL. PARTIALLY UPDATED ESTIMATE OF THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL. SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL. SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL. SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE CURRENT SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE CURRENT SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE THAN USUAL. UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE THAN USUAL. UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE THAN USUAL. WE'LL HAVE A MORE FULLSOME ESTIMATE THAN USUAL. WE'LL HAVE A MORE FULLSOME ESTIMATE THAN USUAL. WE'LL HAVE A MORE FULLSOME UPDATE ON POTENTIAL IN THE APRIL WE'LL HAVE A MORE FULLSOME UPDATE ON POTENTIAL IN THE APRIL WE'LL HAVE A MORE FULLSOME UPDATE ON POTENTIAL IN THE APRIL MPR. UPDATE ON POTENTIAL IN THE APRIL MPR. UPDATE ON POTENTIAL IN THE APRIL MPR. AT THE SAME TIME, HOUSEHOLD MPR. AT THE SAME TIME, HOUSEHOLD MPR. AT THE SAME TIME, HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES REMAIN AT THE SAME TIME, HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES REMAIN AT THE SAME TIME, HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ANALYZING THE POSITIVE ELEVATED ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ANALYZING THE POSITIVE ELEVATED ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ANALYZING THE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS OF A HIGHER ANALYZING THE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS OF A HIGHER ANALYZING THE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS OF A HIGHER HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE FOR THOSE IMPLICATIONS OF A HIGHER HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE FOR THOSE IMPLICATIONS OF A HIGHER HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES. HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES. HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES. [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] BOTH VULNERABILITIES. [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] BOTH VULNERABILITIES. [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] BOTH THESE CONSIDERED, IT WAS [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] BOTH THESE CONSIDERED, IT WAS [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] BOTH THESE CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERNING COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THESE CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERNING COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THESE CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERNING COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT GOVERNING COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT GOVERNING COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT WE WEIGHED THE RISKS THAT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT WE WEIGHED THE RISKS THAT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT WE WEIGHED THE RISKS THAT INFLATION COULD FALL SHORT OF WE WEIGHED THE RISKS THAT INFLATION COULD FALL SHORT OF WE WEIGHED THE RISKS THAT INFLATION COULD FALL SHORT OF TARGET AGAINST THE RISK THAT A INFLATION COULD FALL SHORT OF TARGET AGAINST THE RISK THAT A INFLATION COULD FALL SHORT OF TARGET AGAINST THE RISK THAT A LOWER INTEREST RATES PASS WOULD TARGET AGAINST THE RISK THAT A LOWER INTEREST RATES PASS WOULD TARGET AGAINST THE RISK THAT A LOWER INTEREST RATES PASS WOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER FINANCIAL LOWER INTEREST RATES PASS WOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER FINANCIAL LOWER INTEREST RATES PASS WOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES WHICH WOULD MAKE LEAD TO A HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES WHICH WOULD MAKE LEAD TO A HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES WHICH WOULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN VULNERABILITIES WHICH WOULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN VULNERABILITIES WHICH WOULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS DATA EVOLVES. CLEARLY THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS DATA EVOLVES. CLEARLY THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNING OVER TIME, AS DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNING OVER TIME, AS DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNING COUNCIL WOULD BE WATCHING IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNING COUNCIL WOULD BE WATCHING IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNING COUNCIL WOULD BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT COUNCIL WOULD BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT COUNCIL WOULD BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA, THE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA, THE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA, THE BANK WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA, THE BANK WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA, THE BANK WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENT IN BANK WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENT IN BANK WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENT IN CONSUMER SPENDING, THE HOUSING ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENT IN CONSUMER SPENDING, THE HOUSING ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENT IN CONSUMER SPENDING, THE HOUSING MARKET AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. CONSUMER SPENDING, THE HOUSING MARKET AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. CONSUMER SPENDING, THE HOUSING MARKET AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. >> ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT WAS MARKET AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. >> ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT WAS MARKET AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. >> ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERN COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE >> ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERN COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE >> ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IT WAS GOVERN COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT GOVERN COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT GOVERN COUNCIL'S VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT. BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT. BALANCE OF RISK DOES NOT WARRANT LOWER INTEREST RATES AT. LOWER INTEREST RATES WOULD LEAD LOWER INTEREST RATES AT. LOWER INTEREST RATES WOULD LEAD LOWER INTEREST RATES AT. LOWER INTEREST RATES WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER FINANCIAL LOWER INTEREST RATES WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER FINANCIAL LOWER INTEREST RATES WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES, WHICH COULD TO HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES, WHICH COULD TO HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO VULNERABILITIES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO VULNERABILITIES, WHICH COULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. ATTAIN THE INFLATION TARGET FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY, THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY, THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD. CLEARLY, THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS THE DATA EVOLVES. CLEARLY, THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS THE DATA EVOLVES. CLEARLY, THIS BALANCE CAN CHANGE OVER TIME, AS THE DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, COUNCIL WILL BE OVER TIME, AS THE DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, COUNCIL WILL BE OVER TIME, AS THE DATA EVOLVES. IN THIS REGARD, COUNCIL WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE IN THIS REGARD, COUNCIL WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE IN THIS REGARD, COUNCIL WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST RECENT SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST AND IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST AND IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST AND IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA THE BANK IS PAYING PARTICULAR AND IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA THE BANK IS PAYING PARTICULAR AND IN ASSESSING INCOMING DATA THE BANK IS PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BANK IS PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BANK IS PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN CONSUMER SPENDING AND HOUSING ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN CONSUMER SPENDING AND HOUSING ATTENTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN CONSUMER SPENDING AND HOUSING MARKETS AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. CONSUMER SPENDING AND HOUSING MARKETS AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. CONSUMER SPENDING AND HOUSING MARKETS AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. WITH THAT SENIOR DEPUTY GOVERNOR MARKETS AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. WITH THAT SENIOR DEPUTY GOVERNOR MARKETS AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. WITH THAT SENIOR DEPUTY GOVERNOR WILKINS AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO WITH THAT SENIOR DEPUTY GOVERNOR WILKINS AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO WITH THAT SENIOR DEPUTY GOVERNOR WILKINS AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS. WILKINS AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS. WILKINS AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS. >> THE FIRST QUESTION FROM KEVIN TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS. >> THE FIRST QUESTION FROM KEVIN TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS. >> THE FIRST QUESTION FROM KEVIN FOLLOWED BY GREG QUINN. >> THE FIRST QUESTION FROM KEVIN FOLLOWED BY GREG QUINN. >> THE FIRST QUESTION FROM KEVIN FOLLOWED BY GREG QUINN. >> Question: GOOD MORNING. FOLLOWED BY GREG QUINN. >> Question: GOOD MORNING. FOLLOWED BY GREG QUINN. >> Question: GOOD MORNING. YOU SAY THE POLICY STATEMENT >> Question: GOOD MORNING. YOU SAY THE POLICY STATEMENT >> Question: GOOD MORNING. YOU SAY THE POLICY STATEMENT THAT YOU'LL BE WATCHING FOR YOU SAY THE POLICY STATEMENT THAT YOU'LL BE WATCHING FOR YOU SAY THE POLICY STATEMENT THAT YOU'LL BE WATCHING FOR EVIDENCE ON WHETHER THE SLOWDOWN THAT YOU'LL BE WATCHING FOR EVIDENCE ON WHETHER THE SLOWDOWN THAT YOU'LL BE WATCHING FOR EVIDENCE ON WHETHER THE SLOWDOWN IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EVIDENCE ON WHETHER THE SLOWDOWN IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EVIDENCE ON WHETHER THE SLOWDOWN IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST. CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WHAT FORECAST. CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WHAT FORECAST. CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WHAT PERSISTENT LOOKS LIKE. CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WHAT PERSISTENT LOOKS LIKE. CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WHAT PERSISTENT LOOKS LIKE. >> SO PERSISTENCE WOULD BE PERSISTENT LOOKS LIKE. >> SO PERSISTENCE WOULD BE PERSISTENT LOOKS LIKE. >> SO PERSISTENCE WOULD BE MEASURED AGAINST ITS IMPACT ON >> SO PERSISTENCE WOULD BE MEASURED AGAINST ITS IMPACT ON >> SO PERSISTENCE WOULD BE MEASURED AGAINST ITS IMPACT ON THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. MEASURED AGAINST ITS IMPACT ON THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. MEASURED AGAINST ITS IMPACT ON THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. SO AS WE SHOW IN CHART 15 RIGHT THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. SO AS WE SHOW IN CHART 15 RIGHT THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. SO AS WE SHOW IN CHART 15 RIGHT NOW, YOU CAN SEE THE LITTLE BLUE SO AS WE SHOW IN CHART 15 RIGHT NOW, YOU CAN SEE THE LITTLE BLUE SO AS WE SHOW IN CHART 15 RIGHT NOW, YOU CAN SEE THE LITTLE BLUE BARS ARE A MEASURE OF WHAT WE NOW, YOU CAN SEE THE LITTLE BLUE BARS ARE A MEASURE OF WHAT WE NOW, YOU CAN SEE THE LITTLE BLUE BARS ARE A MEASURE OF WHAT WE BELIEVE TODAY THE GAP IS AND BARS ARE A MEASURE OF WHAT WE BELIEVE TODAY THE GAP IS AND BARS ARE A MEASURE OF WHAT WE BELIEVE TODAY THE GAP IS AND WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE OVER THE BELIEVE TODAY THE GAP IS AND WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE OVER THE BELIEVE TODAY THE GAP IS AND WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE OVER THE COURSE OF THE PROJECTION WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE OVER THE COURSE OF THE PROJECTION WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE OVER THE COURSE OF THE PROJECTION ARISING. COURSE OF THE PROJECTION ARISING. COURSE OF THE PROJECTION ARISING. AND THAT PUTS A LITTLE BIT OF ARISING. AND THAT PUTS A LITTLE BIT OF ARISING. AND THAT PUTS A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION. AND THAT PUTS A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION. AND THAT PUTS A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION. SO IF THE SLOWDOWN PROVED TO BE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION. SO IF THE SLOWDOWN PROVED TO BE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION. SO IF THE SLOWDOWN PROVED TO BE MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT WE SO IF THE SLOWDOWN PROVED TO BE MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT WE SO IF THE SLOWDOWN PROVED TO BE MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT WE DEALT IN THAT CASE, THEN THAT MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT WE DEALT IN THAT CASE, THEN THAT MORE PERSISTENT THAN WHAT WE DEALT IN THAT CASE, THEN THAT DOWNWARD PRESSURE WOULD BECOME DEALT IN THAT CASE, THEN THAT DOWNWARD PRESSURE WOULD BECOME DEALT IN THAT CASE, THEN THAT DOWNWARD PRESSURE WOULD BECOME LARGER AND IT IS THAT DOWN SIDE DOWNWARD PRESSURE WOULD BECOME LARGER AND IT IS THAT DOWN SIDE DOWNWARD PRESSURE WOULD BECOME LARGER AND IT IS THAT DOWN SIDE RISK THAT WE COMPARE OR MEASURE LARGER AND IT IS THAT DOWN SIDE RISK THAT WE COMPARE OR MEASURE LARGER AND IT IS THAT DOWN SIDE RISK THAT WE COMPARE OR MEASURE AGAINST THE RISKS OF OTHER RISKS RISK THAT WE COMPARE OR MEASURE AGAINST THE RISKS OF OTHER RISKS RISK THAT WE COMPARE OR MEASURE AGAINST THE RISKS OF OTHER RISKS THAT WE WOULD BE ADDING TO THE AGAINST THE RISKS OF OTHER RISKS THAT WE WOULD BE ADDING TO THE AGAINST THE RISKS OF OTHER RISKS THAT WE WOULD BE ADDING TO THE SYST THAT WE WOULD BE ADDING TO THE SYST THAT WE WOULD BE ADDING TO THE SYST BY LOWERING INTEREST RATES AND SYST BY LOWERING INTEREST RATES AND SYST BY LOWERING INTEREST RATES AND POTENTIALLY FUELLING FINANCIAL BY LOWERING INTEREST RATES AND POTENTIALLY FUELLING FINANCIAL BY LOWERING INTEREST RATES AND POTENTIALLY FUELLING FINANCIAL VU POTENTIALLY FUELLING FINANCIAL VU POTENTIALLY FUELLING FINANCIAL VU THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN A POSITION VU THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN A POSITION VU THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN A POSITION LATER WHERE A DOWNTURN IN THE THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN A POSITION LATER WHERE A DOWNTURN IN THE THAT MEANS YOU'RE IN A POSITION LATER WHERE A DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY CAN HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT LATER WHERE A DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY CAN HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT LATER WHERE A DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY CAN HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT AND MAKE IT HARD ER TO REACH ECONOMY CAN HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT AND MAKE IT HARD ER TO REACH ECONOMY CAN HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT AND MAKE IT HARD ER TO REACH YOUR TARGET. AND MAKE IT HARD ER TO REACH YOUR TARGET. AND MAKE IT HARD ER TO REACH YOUR TARGET. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE FIGURES YOUR TARGET. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE FIGURES YOUR TARGET. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE FIGURES INTO THAT CALCULUS. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE FIGURES INTO THAT CALCULUS. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE FIGURES INTO THAT CALCULUS. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE COULD INTO THAT CALCULUS. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE COULD INTO THAT CALCULUS. THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE COULD HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE COULD HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE HIGHER SAVINGS RATE COULD HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES. HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES. HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THOSE VULNERABILITIES. THAT'S ANALYSIS THAT HAS TO BE THOSE VULNERABILITIES. THAT'S ANALYSIS THAT HAS TO BE THOSE VULNERABILITIES. THAT'S ANALYSIS THAT HAS TO BE DONE OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD. THAT'S ANALYSIS THAT HAS TO BE DONE OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD. THAT'S ANALYSIS THAT HAS TO BE DONE OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD. SO A COMPLICATED TRADEOFF BUT DONE OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD. SO A COMPLICATED TRADEOFF BUT DONE OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD. SO A COMPLICATED TRADEOFF BUT THAT'S THE GIST OF IT. SO A COMPLICATED TRADEOFF BUT THAT'S THE GIST OF IT. SO A COMPLICATED TRADEOFF BUT THAT'S THE GIST OF IT. >> Question: MY SECOND QUESTION THAT'S THE GIST OF IT. >> Question: MY SECOND QUESTION THAT'S THE GIST OF IT. >> Question: MY SECOND QUESTION IS WITH REGARDS TO THE FEDERAL >> Question: MY SECOND QUESTION IS WITH REGARDS TO THE FEDERAL >> Question: MY SECOND QUESTION IS WITH REGARDS TO THE FEDERAL INCOME TAX CUT. IS WITH REGARDS TO THE FEDERAL INCOME TAX CUT. IS WITH REGARDS TO THE FEDERAL INCOME TAX CUT. YOU SAID BACK IN THE FALL THAT INCOME TAX CUT. YOU SAID BACK IN THE FALL THAT INCOME TAX CUT. YOU SAID BACK IN THE FALL THAT THE STIMULUS -- FISCAL STIMULUS YOU SAID BACK IN THE FALL THAT THE STIMULUS -- FISCAL STIMULUS YOU SAID BACK IN THE FALL THAT THE STIMULUS -- FISCAL STIMULUS OF ABOUT $5 BILLION IS AS GOOD THE STIMULUS -- FISCAL STIMULUS OF ABOUT $5 BILLION IS AS GOOD THE STIMULUS -- FISCAL STIMULUS OF ABOUT $5 BILLION IS AS GOOD AS A RATE CUT ABOUT A QUARTER OF ABOUT $5 BILLION IS AS GOOD AS A RATE CUT ABOUT A QUARTER OF ABOUT $5 BILLION IS AS GOOD AS A RATE CUT ABOUT A QUARTER PERCENTAGE POINT. AS A RATE CUT ABOUT A QUARTER PERCENTAGE POINT. AS A RATE CUT ABOUT A QUARTER PERCENTAGE POINT. SHOULD WE EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT PERCENTAGE POINT. SHOULD WE EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT PERCENTAGE POINT. SHOULD WE EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT THAT THE TAX CUT IS IN THE WORKS SHOULD WE EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT THAT THE TAX CUT IS IN THE WORKS SHOULD WE EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT THAT THE TAX CUT IS IN THE WORKS IS AS GOOD AS A QUARTER POINT THAT THE TAX CUT IS IN THE WORKS IS AS GOOD AS A QUARTER POINT THAT THE TAX CUT IS IN THE WORKS IS AS GOOD AS A QUARTER POINT INTEREST RATE CUT? IS AS GOOD AS A QUARTER POINT INTEREST RATE CUT? IS AS GOOD AS A QUARTER POINT INTEREST RATE CUT? IS THE MATH AS SIMPLE AS THAT? INTEREST RATE CUT? IS THE MATH AS SIMPLE AS THAT? INTEREST RATE CUT? IS THE MATH AS SIMPLE AS THAT? >> I GAVE YOU THAT RULE OF THUMB IS THE MATH AS SIMPLE AS THAT? >> I GAVE YOU THAT RULE OF THUMB IS THE MATH AS SIMPLE AS THAT? >> I GAVE YOU THAT RULE OF THUMB AS A WAY TO KIND OF PUT A METRIC >> I GAVE YOU THAT RULE OF THUMB AS A WAY TO KIND OF PUT A METRIC >> I GAVE YOU THAT RULE OF THUMB AS A WAY TO KIND OF PUT A METRIC OUT THERE. AS A WAY TO KIND OF PUT A METRIC OUT THERE. AS A WAY TO KIND OF PUT A METRIC OUT THERE. SO IT ISN'T QUITE AS SIMPLE AS OUT THERE. SO IT ISN'T QUITE AS SIMPLE AS OUT THERE. SO IT ISN'T QUITE AS SIMPLE AS THAT. SO IT ISN'T QUITE AS SIMPLE AS THAT. SO IT ISN'T QUITE AS SIMPLE AS THAT. IN THE REAL WORLD, WHAT HAPPENS THAT. IN THE REAL WORLD, WHAT HAPPENS THAT. IN THE REAL WORLD, WHAT HAPPENS IS MANY ITEMS MIGHT CHANGE IN A IN THE REAL WORLD, WHAT HAPPENS IS MANY ITEMS MIGHT CHANGE IN A IN THE REAL WORLD, WHAT HAPPENS IS MANY ITEMS MIGHT CHANGE IN A BUDGET AND SO YOU PUT ALL THOSE IS MANY ITEMS MIGHT CHANGE IN A BUDGET AND SO YOU PUT ALL THOSE IS MANY ITEMS MIGHT CHANGE IN A BUDGET AND SO YOU PUT ALL THOSE FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS IN. BUDGET AND SO YOU PUT ALL THOSE FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS IN. BUDGET AND SO YOU PUT ALL THOSE FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS IN. THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL DO FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS IN. THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL DO FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS IN. THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL DO WHENEVER WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET. THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL DO WHENEVER WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET. THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL DO WHENEVER WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET. FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES WHENEVER WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET. FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES WHENEVER WE HAVE A NEW BUDGET. FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES THE IMMEDIATE TAX CUT THAT THE FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES THE IMMEDIATE TAX CUT THAT THE FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES THE IMMEDIATE TAX CUT THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT PUT INTO PLACE. THE IMMEDIATE TAX CUT THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT PUT INTO PLACE. THE IMMEDIATE TAX CUT THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT PUT INTO PLACE. THAT HAS A SMALLER EFFECT. NEW GOVERNMENT PUT INTO PLACE. THAT HAS A SMALLER EFFECT. NEW GOVERNMENT PUT INTO PLACE. THAT HAS A SMALLER EFFECT. CONSERVATIVERYLY ON THE ORDER OF THAT HAS A SMALLER EFFECT. CONSERVATIVERYLY ON THE ORDER OF THAT HAS A SMALLER EFFECT. CONSERVATIVERYLY ON THE ORDER OF .1 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON GROWTH. CONSERVATIVERYLY ON THE ORDER OF .1 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON GROWTH. CONSERVATIVERYLY ON THE ORDER OF .1 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON GROWTH. IT'S PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE .1 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON GROWTH. IT'S PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE .1 PERCENTAGE POINTS ON GROWTH. IT'S PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THAT. IT'S PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THAT. IT'S PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THAT. BUT I WON'T PUT A NUMBER AGAINST THAN THAT. BUT I WON'T PUT A NUMBER AGAINST THAN THAT. BUT I WON'T PUT A NUMBER AGAINST IT BECAUSE IT'S A TARGETED TAX BUT I WON'T PUT A NUMBER AGAINST IT BECAUSE IT'S A TARGETED TAX BUT I WON'T PUT A NUMBER AGAINST IT BECAUSE IT'S A TARGETED TAX CUT AS POE OPPOSED TO JUST A IT BECAUSE IT'S A TARGETED TAX CUT AS POE OPPOSED TO JUST A IT BECAUSE IT'S A TARGETED TAX CUT AS POE OPPOSED TO JUST A GENERAL FISCAL STIMULUS, AND CUT AS POE OPPOSED TO JUST A GENERAL FISCAL STIMULUS, AND CUT AS POE OPPOSED TO JUST A GENERAL FISCAL STIMULUS, AND TARGETED IN THE SENSE THAT IT'S GENERAL FISCAL STIMULUS, AND TARGETED IN THE SENSE THAT IT'S GENERAL FISCAL STIMULUS, AND TARGETED IN THE SENSE THAT IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECEIVE TARGETED IN THE SENSE THAT IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECEIVE TARGETED IN THE SENSE THAT IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECEIVE THE TAX CUT WILL ACTUALLY SPEND MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECEIVE THE TAX CUT WILL ACTUALLY SPEND MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL RECEIVE THE TAX CUT WILL ACTUALLY SPEND THE MONEY. THE TAX CUT WILL ACTUALLY SPEND THE MONEY. THE TAX CUT WILL ACTUALLY SPEND THE MONEY. SO THAT'S TO SAY IT COULD BE IN THE MONEY. SO THAT'S TO SAY IT COULD BE IN THE MONEY. SO THAT'S TO SAY IT COULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF, SAY, 10 TO 20 SO THAT'S TO SAY IT COULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF, SAY, 10 TO 20 SO THAT'S TO SAY IT COULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF, SAY, 10 TO 20 BASIS POINTS EQUIVALENTS, 10, THE BALLPARK OF, SAY, 10 TO 20 BASIS POINTS EQUIVALENTS, 10, THE BALLPARK OF, SAY, 10 TO 20 BASIS POINTS EQUIVALENTS, 10, 15, MIGHT BE A BETTER RANGE OF BASIS POINTS EQUIVALENTS, 10, 15, MIGHT BE A BETTER RANGE OF BASIS POINTS EQUIVALENTS, 10, 15, MIGHT BE A BETTER RANGE OF ESTIMATE SO WE'VE PUT IT IN AS 15, MIGHT BE A BETTER RANGE OF ESTIMATE SO WE'VE PUT IT IN AS 15, MIGHT BE A BETTER RANGE OF ESTIMATE SO WE'VE PUT IT IN AS .1, WHICH IS AROUND 10 BASIS ESTIMATE SO WE'VE PUT IT IN AS .1, WHICH IS AROUND 10 BASIS ESTIMATE SO WE'VE PUT IT IN AS .1, WHICH IS AROUND 10 BASIS POINTS .1, WHICH IS AROUND 10 BASIS POINTS .1, WHICH IS AROUND 10 BASIS POINTS SO THAT'S ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT POINTS SO THAT'S ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT POINTS SO THAT'S ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT THAT. SO THAT'S ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT THAT. SO THAT'S ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT THAT. THERE ARE OTHER THINGS MOVING IN THAT. THERE ARE OTHER THINGS MOVING IN THAT. THERE ARE OTHER THINGS MOVING IN THAT SPACE, RECONDUCTIONS AND THERE ARE OTHER THINGS MOVING IN THAT SPACE, RECONDUCTIONS AND THERE ARE OTHER THINGS MOVING IN THAT SPACE, RECONDUCTIONS AND THAT THE FISCAL LINE CONTINUES THAT SPACE, RECONDUCTIONS AND THAT THE FISCAL LINE CONTINUES THAT SPACE, RECONDUCTIONS AND THAT THE FISCAL LINE CONTINUES TO BE LIKE A CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP THAT THE FISCAL LINE CONTINUES TO BE LIKE A CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP THAT THE FISCAL LINE CONTINUES TO BE LIKE A CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP GROWTH IN OUR TABLES, SO THEY TO BE LIKE A CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP GROWTH IN OUR TABLES, SO THEY TO BE LIKE A CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP GROWTH IN OUR TABLES, SO THEY WILL TWO OR THREE, I FORGET GROWTH IN OUR TABLES, SO THEY WILL TWO OR THREE, I FORGET GROWTH IN OUR TABLES, SO THEY WILL TWO OR THREE, I FORGET WHICH ONE. WILL TWO OR THREE, I FORGET WHICH ONE. WILL TWO OR THREE, I FORGET WHICH ONE. BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN IT DID IN WHICH ONE. BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN IT DID IN WHICH ONE. BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN IT DID IN THE PAST, THAT EFFECT, BECAUSE BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN IT DID IN THE PAST, THAT EFFECT, BECAUSE BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN IT DID IN THE PAST, THAT EFFECT, BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME UPSETS. THE PAST, THAT EFFECT, BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME UPSETS. THE PAST, THAT EFFECT, BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME UPSETS. >> GREG QUINN. THERE ARE SOME UPSETS. >> GREG QUINN. THERE ARE SOME UPSETS. >> GREG QUINN. >> Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET >> GREG QUINN. >> Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET >> GREG QUINN. >> Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET NEWS. >> Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET NEWS. >> Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET NEWS. GOOD MORNING. NEWS. GOOD MORNING. NEWS. GOOD MORNING. IF GROWTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE GOOD MORNING. IF GROWTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE GOOD MORNING. IF GROWTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING AND THERE ARE IF GROWTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING AND THERE ARE IF GROWTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING AND THERE ARE STILL BAD THINGS GOING ON IN THE DISAPPOINTING AND THERE ARE STILL BAD THINGS GOING ON IN THE DISAPPOINTING AND THERE ARE STILL BAD THINGS GOING ON IN THE WORLD, HOW IS IT THAT HEADLINE STILL BAD THINGS GOING ON IN THE WORLD, HOW IS IT THAT HEADLINE STILL BAD THINGS GOING ON IN THE WORLD, HOW IS IT THAT HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION STICKS SO WORLD, HOW IS IT THAT HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION STICKS SO WORLD, HOW IS IT THAT HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION STICKS SO CLOSE TO 2% THROUGH THE AND CORE INFLATION STICKS SO CLOSE TO 2% THROUGH THE AND CORE INFLATION STICKS SO CLOSE TO 2% THROUGH THE PROJECTION AND THAT THE RISKS CLOSE TO 2% THROUGH THE PROJECTION AND THAT THE RISKS CLOSE TO 2% THROUGH THE PROJECTION AND THAT THE RISKS AROUND INFLATION REMAIN ROUGHLY PROJECTION AND THAT THE RISKS AROUND INFLATION REMAIN ROUGHLY PROJECTION AND THAT THE RISKS AROUND INFLATION REMAIN ROUGHLY BALANCED? AROUND INFLATION REMAIN ROUGHLY BALANCED? AROUND INFLATION REMAIN ROUGHLY BALANCED? >> WELL, THE PART THAT'S WITH BALANCED? >> WELL, THE PART THAT'S WITH BALANCED? >> WELL, THE PART THAT'S WITH RESPECT TO HISTORY IS JUST A >> WELL, THE PART THAT'S WITH RESPECT TO HISTORY IS JUST A >> WELL, THE PART THAT'S WITH RESPECT TO HISTORY IS JUST A REFLECTION OF HOW A GOOD A RESPECT TO HISTORY IS JUST A REFLECTION OF HOW A GOOD A RESPECT TO HISTORY IS JUST A REFLECTION OF HOW A GOOD A POSITION THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN REFLECTION OF HOW A GOOD A POSITION THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN REFLECTION OF HOW A GOOD A POSITION THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, POSITION THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, POSITION THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, BECAUSE ACTUAL CORE INFLATION THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, BECAUSE ACTUAL CORE INFLATION THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, BECAUSE ACTUAL CORE INFLATION REALLY DOES REFLECT WHERE THE BECAUSE ACTUAL CORE INFLATION REALLY DOES REFLECT WHERE THE BECAUSE ACTUAL CORE INFLATION REALLY DOES REFLECT WHERE THE ECONOMY WAS, SAY, WITH A PEAK OF REALLY DOES REFLECT WHERE THE ECONOMY WAS, SAY, WITH A PEAK OF REALLY DOES REFLECT WHERE THE ECONOMY WAS, SAY, WITH A PEAK OF SIX QUARTERS AGO AND SO THAT'S ECONOMY WAS, SAY, WITH A PEAK OF SIX QUARTERS AGO AND SO THAT'S ECONOMY WAS, SAY, WITH A PEAK OF SIX QUARTERS AGO AND SO THAT'S WHY INFLATION TARGETING IS A SIX QUARTERS AGO AND SO THAT'S WHY INFLATION TARGETING IS A SIX QUARTERS AGO AND SO THAT'S WHY INFLATION TARGETING IS A FORWARD LOOKING BUSINESS, SO WHY INFLATION TARGETING IS A FORWARD LOOKING BUSINESS, SO WHY INFLATION TARGETING IS A FORWARD LOOKING BUSINESS, SO YOUR QUESTION ABOUT, WELL, HOW FORWARD LOOKING BUSINESS, SO YOUR QUESTION ABOUT, WELL, HOW FORWARD LOOKING BUSINESS, SO YOUR QUESTION ABOUT, WELL, HOW COME IT STICKS CLOSE TARGETED IS YOUR QUESTION ABOUT, WELL, HOW COME IT STICKS CLOSE TARGETED IS YOUR QUESTION ABOUT, WELL, HOW COME IT STICKS CLOSE TARGETED IS A GOOD ONE. COME IT STICKS CLOSE TARGETED IS A GOOD ONE. COME IT STICKS CLOSE TARGETED IS A GOOD ONE. WE KEEP MENTIONING CHART FIVE A GOOD ONE. WE KEEP MENTIONING CHART FIVE A GOOD ONE. WE KEEP MENTIONING CHART FIVE BUT IT'S THERE. WE KEEP MENTIONING CHART FIVE BUT IT'S THERE. WE KEEP MENTIONING CHART FIVE BUT IT'S THERE. GIVEN WE EXPECT A PICKUP IN BUT IT'S THERE. GIVEN WE EXPECT A PICKUP IN BUT IT'S THERE. GIVEN WE EXPECT A PICKUP IN GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND GIVEN WE EXPECT A PICKUP IN GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND GIVEN WE EXPECT A PICKUP IN GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND THEN STRONGER IN THE SECOND GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND THEN STRONGER IN THE SECOND GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND THEN STRONGER IN THE SECOND QUARTER, THE OUTPUT GAP THAT'S THEN STRONGER IN THE SECOND QUARTER, THE OUTPUT GAP THAT'S THEN STRONGER IN THE SECOND QUARTER, THE OUTPUT GAP THAT'S ONLY JUST OPENED UP STARTS TO QUARTER, THE OUTPUT GAP THAT'S ONLY JUST OPENED UP STARTS TO QUARTER, THE OUTPUT GAP THAT'S ONLY JUST OPENED UP STARTS TO CLOSE AND REMAINS VERY SMALL. ONLY JUST OPENED UP STARTS TO CLOSE AND REMAINS VERY SMALL. ONLY JUST OPENED UP STARTS TO CLOSE AND REMAINS VERY SMALL. AND SO IT ONLY HAS A VERY SMALL CLOSE AND REMAINS VERY SMALL. AND SO IT ONLY HAS A VERY SMALL CLOSE AND REMAINS VERY SMALL. AND SO IT ONLY HAS A VERY SMALL DRAG, EXPECTED DRAG, ON AND SO IT ONLY HAS A VERY SMALL DRAG, EXPECTED DRAG, ON AND SO IT ONLY HAS A VERY SMALL DRAG, EXPECTED DRAG, ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION DRAG, EXPECTED DRAG, ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION DRAG, EXPECTED DRAG, ON INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. INFLATION OVER THE PROJECTION HORIZON. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S SOME HORIZON. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S SOME HORIZON. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S SOME OFFSETTING FACTORS, INCLUDING AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S SOME OFFSETTING FACTORS, INCLUDING AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S SOME OFFSETTING FACTORS, INCLUDING THE VERY SMALL EFFECT OF THE OFFSETTING FACTORS, INCLUDING THE VERY SMALL EFFECT OF THE OFFSETTING FACTORS, INCLUDING THE VERY SMALL EFFECT OF THE CARBON TAX AND SO IT JUST THE VERY SMALL EFFECT OF THE CARBON TAX AND SO IT JUST THE VERY SMALL EFFECT OF THE CARBON TAX AND SO IT JUST WIGGLES AROUND 2 UNTIL THE CARBON TAX AND SO IT JUST WIGGLES AROUND 2 UNTIL THE CARBON TAX AND SO IT JUST WIGGLES AROUND 2 UNTIL THE HORIZON. WIGGLES AROUND 2 UNTIL THE HORIZON. WIGGLES AROUND 2 UNTIL THE HORIZON. >> I WOULD LIKE TO DIG INTO HORIZON. >> I WOULD LIKE TO DIG INTO HORIZON. >> I WOULD LIKE TO DIG INTO KEVIN'S QUESTION MORE ON >> I WOULD LIKE TO DIG INTO KEVIN'S QUESTION MORE ON >> I WOULD LIKE TO DIG INTO KEVIN'S QUESTION MORE ON PERSISTENCE. KEVIN'S QUESTION MORE ON PERSISTENCE. KEVIN'S QUESTION MORE ON PERSISTENCE. WHAT'S THE RUNWAY HERE? PERSISTENCE. WHAT'S THE RUNWAY HERE? PERSISTENCE. WHAT'S THE RUNWAY HERE? IF WEAKNESS SPILLED INTO THE WHAT'S THE RUNWAY HERE? IF WEAKNESS SPILLED INTO THE WHAT'S THE RUNWAY HERE? IF WEAKNESS SPILLED INTO THE SECOND QUARTER, WOULD THAT BE IF WEAKNESS SPILLED INTO THE SECOND QUARTER, WOULD THAT BE IF WEAKNESS SPILLED INTO THE SECOND QUARTER, WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO CALL IT PERSISTENCE? SECOND QUARTER, WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO CALL IT PERSISTENCE? SECOND QUARTER, WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO CALL IT PERSISTENCE? IS THERE A SCOPE BEYOND THAT? ENOUGH TO CALL IT PERSISTENCE? IS THERE A SCOPE BEYOND THAT? ENOUGH TO CALL IT PERSISTENCE? IS THERE A SCOPE BEYOND THAT? OR EVEN IF THE FIRST QUARTER IS IS THERE A SCOPE BEYOND THAT? OR EVEN IF THE FIRST QUARTER IS IS THERE A SCOPE BEYOND THAT? OR EVEN IF THE FIRST QUARTER IS WORSE THAN EXPECTED OR THERE'S A OR EVEN IF THE FIRST QUARTER IS WORSE THAN EXPECTED OR THERE'S A OR EVEN IF THE FIRST QUARTER IS WORSE THAN EXPECTED OR THERE'S A REVISION OF THE FOURTH QUARTER, WORSE THAN EXPECTED OR THERE'S A REVISION OF THE FOURTH QUARTER, WORSE THAN EXPECTED OR THERE'S A REVISION OF THE FOURTH QUARTER, IS THERE ANY KIND OF TIME FRAME REVISION OF THE FOURTH QUARTER, IS THERE ANY KIND OF TIME FRAME REVISION OF THE FOURTH QUARTER, IS THERE ANY KIND OF TIME FRAME WHERE PERSISTENCE BECOMES A IS THERE ANY KIND OF TIME FRAME WHERE PERSISTENCE BECOMES A IS THERE ANY KIND OF TIME FRAME WHERE PERSISTENCE BECOMES A REALITY? WHERE PERSISTENCE BECOMES A REALITY? WHERE PERSISTENCE BECOMES A REALITY? >> SO ALL THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD REALITY? >> SO ALL THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD REALITY? >> SO ALL THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD APPLY. >> SO ALL THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD APPLY. >> SO ALL THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD APPLY. SO WHETHER -- IN A WAY -- APPLY. SO WHETHER -- IN A WAY -- APPLY. SO WHETHER -- IN A WAY -- WHICHEVER SENSE, IF THE FORECAST SO WHETHER -- IN A WAY -- WHICHEVER SENSE, IF THE FORECAST SO WHETHER -- IN A WAY -- WHICHEVER SENSE, IF THE FORECAST IS ONE WHICH, AS WE UPDATE IT, WHICHEVER SENSE, IF THE FORECAST IS ONE WHICH, AS WE UPDATE IT, WHICHEVER SENSE, IF THE FORECAST IS ONE WHICH, AS WE UPDATE IT, IT GETS REVISED DOWN FURTHER, IS ONE WHICH, AS WE UPDATE IT, IT GETS REVISED DOWN FURTHER, IS ONE WHICH, AS WE UPDATE IT, IT GETS REVISED DOWN FURTHER, WITH MEETING AN CUMULATIVELY IT GETS REVISED DOWN FURTHER, WITH MEETING AN CUMULATIVELY IT GETS REVISED DOWN FURTHER, WITH MEETING AN CUMULATIVELY LARGER EFFECT. WITH MEETING AN CUMULATIVELY LARGER EFFECT. WITH MEETING AN CUMULATIVELY LARGER EFFECT. THAT WOULD PUT AN INCREASED LARGER EFFECT. THAT WOULD PUT AN INCREASED LARGER EFFECT. THAT WOULD PUT AN INCREASED DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION THAT WOULD PUT AN INCREASED DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION THAT WOULD PUT AN INCREASED DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION AND IT WOULDN'T WIGGLE THE RATE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION AND IT WOULDN'T WIGGLE THE RATE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION AND IT WOULDN'T WIGGLE THE RATE AROUND 2%. AND IT WOULDN'T WIGGLE THE RATE AROUND 2%. AND IT WOULDN'T WIGGLE THE RATE AROUND 2%. IT WOULD START TO SHOW A LITTLE AROUND 2%. IT WOULD START TO SHOW A LITTLE AROUND 2%. IT WOULD START TO SHOW A LITTLE LESS THAN 2%. IT WOULD START TO SHOW A LITTLE LESS THAN 2%. IT WOULD START TO SHOW A LITTLE LESS THAN 2%. SO THEN YOU WOULD BEGIN TO LESS THAN 2%. SO THEN YOU WOULD BEGIN TO LESS THAN 2%. SO THEN YOU WOULD BEGIN TO FACTOR THAT IN. SO THEN YOU WOULD BEGIN TO FACTOR THAT IN. SO THEN YOU WOULD BEGIN TO FACTOR THAT IN. THAT COULD BE BECAUSE Q 4 WAS FACTOR THAT IN. THAT COULD BE BECAUSE Q 4 WAS FACTOR THAT IN. THAT COULD BE BECAUSE Q 4 WAS EVEN WEAKER THAN WE WERE THAT COULD BE BECAUSE Q 4 WAS EVEN WEAKER THAN WE WERE THAT COULD BE BECAUSE Q 4 WAS EVEN WEAKER THAN WE WERE MONITORING OR Q 1 OR IT COULD EVEN WEAKER THAN WE WERE MONITORING OR Q 1 OR IT COULD EVEN WEAKER THAN WE WERE MONITORING OR Q 1 OR IT COULD MOVE INTO Q 2. MONITORING OR Q 1 OR IT COULD MOVE INTO Q 2. MONITORING OR Q 1 OR IT COULD MOVE INTO Q 2. SO THIS BUSINESS OF THE MOVE INTO Q 2. SO THIS BUSINESS OF THE MOVE INTO Q 2. SO THIS BUSINESS OF THE DYNAMICS, IT'S NOT JUST A SO THIS BUSINESS OF THE DYNAMICS, IT'S NOT JUST A SO THIS BUSINESS OF THE DYNAMICS, IT'S NOT JUST A MECHANICAL THING. DYNAMICS, IT'S NOT JUST A MECHANICAL THING. DYNAMICS, IT'S NOT JUST A MECHANICAL THING. SO THE Q 4 WERE EXPECTED BIT MECHANICAL THING. SO THE Q 4 WERE EXPECTED BIT MECHANICAL THING. SO THE Q 4 WERE EXPECTED BIT EARLY INDICATORS FROM Q 1 WERE SO THE Q 4 WERE EXPECTED BIT EARLY INDICATORS FROM Q 1 WERE SO THE Q 4 WERE EXPECTED BIT EARLY INDICATORS FROM Q 1 WERE SHOWING THE REBOUND THAT WE'RE EARLY INDICATORS FROM Q 1 WERE SHOWING THE REBOUND THAT WE'RE EARLY INDICATORS FROM Q 1 WERE SHOWING THE REBOUND THAT WE'RE CALLING FOR. SHOWING THE REBOUND THAT WE'RE CALLING FOR. SHOWING THE REBOUND THAT WE'RE CALLING FOR. WELL, THAT MEANS YOU DON'T JUST CALLING FOR. WELL, THAT MEANS YOU DON'T JUST CALLING FOR. WELL, THAT MEANS YOU DON'T JUST GO MECHANICAL ABOUT IT. WELL, THAT MEANS YOU DON'T JUST GO MECHANICAL ABOUT IT. WELL, THAT MEANS YOU DON'T JUST GO MECHANICAL ABOUT IT. SO YOU GET THE MOMENTUM GOES GO MECHANICAL ABOUT IT. SO YOU GET THE MOMENTUM GOES GO MECHANICAL ABOUT IT. SO YOU GET THE MOMENTUM GOES BACK TO THE GOOD SIDE AND THEN SO YOU GET THE MOMENTUM GOES BACK TO THE GOOD SIDE AND THEN SO YOU GET THE MOMENTUM GOES BACK TO THE GOOD SIDE AND THEN IT'S A VERY POSITIVE BACK TO THE GOOD SIDE AND THEN IT'S A VERY POSITIVE BACK TO THE GOOD SIDE AND THEN IT'S A VERY POSITIVE DEVELOPME. IT'S A VERY POSITIVE DEVELOPME. IT'S A VERY POSITIVE DEVELOPME. SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, A GOOD, DEVELOPME. SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, A GOOD, DEVELOPME. SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, A GOOD, FOR INSTANCE, IS, CONSUMER SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, A GOOD, FOR INSTANCE, IS, CONSUMER SO AS I SAID, YOU KNOW, A GOOD, FOR INSTANCE, IS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS WEAK IN THE FOR INSTANCE, IS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS WEAK IN THE FOR INSTANCE, IS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS WEAK IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, AND YOU COULD CONFIDENCE WAS WEAK IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, AND YOU COULD CONFIDENCE WAS WEAK IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, AND YOU COULD POINT TO LOTS OF REASONS WHY IT FOURTH QUARTER, AND YOU COULD POINT TO LOTS OF REASONS WHY IT FOURTH QUARTER, AND YOU COULD POINT TO LOTS OF REASONS WHY IT MIGHT BE THE CASE. POINT TO LOTS OF REASONS WHY IT MIGHT BE THE CASE. POINT TO LOTS OF REASONS WHY IT MIGHT BE THE CASE. AND MANY OF THEM ARE KIND OF MIGHT BE THE CASE. AND MANY OF THEM ARE KIND OF MIGHT BE THE CASE. AND MANY OF THEM ARE KIND OF TEMPORARY REASONS, YOU KNOW. AND MANY OF THEM ARE KIND OF TEMPORARY REASONS, YOU KNOW. AND MANY OF THEM ARE KIND OF TEMPORARY REASONS, YOU KNOW. SO A GOOD TEST OF THAT WOULD BE, TEMPORARY REASONS, YOU KNOW. SO A GOOD TEST OF THAT WOULD BE, TEMPORARY REASONS, YOU KNOW. SO A GOOD TEST OF THAT WOULD BE, WHAT HAPPENS IS WE GET INTO THE SO A GOOD TEST OF THAT WOULD BE, WHAT HAPPENS IS WE GET INTO THE SO A GOOD TEST OF THAT WOULD BE, WHAT HAPPENS IS WE GET INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR WITH WHAT HAPPENS IS WE GET INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR WITH WHAT HAPPENS IS WE GET INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR WITH THE DATA, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR WITH THE DATA, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR WITH THE DATA, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH, IF YOU GET CONSUMER THE DATA, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH, IF YOU GET CONSUMER THE DATA, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH, IF YOU GET CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GOING BACK TO NORMAL, MARCH, IF YOU GET CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GOING BACK TO NORMAL, MARCH, IF YOU GET CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GOING BACK TO NORMAL, THAT WOULD BE A REASSURING CONFIDENCE GOING BACK TO NORMAL, THAT WOULD BE A REASSURING CONFIDENCE GOING BACK TO NORMAL, THAT WOULD BE A REASSURING SIGNAL. THAT WOULD BE A REASSURING SIGNAL. THAT WOULD BE A REASSURING SIGNAL. THAT WOULD BE ONE. SIGNAL. THAT WOULD BE ONE. SIGNAL. THAT WOULD BE ONE. WE MENTIONED RETAIL SALES IN THE THAT WOULD BE ONE. WE MENTIONED RETAIL SALES IN THE THAT WOULD BE ONE. WE MENTIONED RETAIL SALES IN THE OPENING REMARKS. WE MENTIONED RETAIL SALES IN THE OPENING REMARKS. WE MENTIONED RETAIL SALES IN THE OPENING REMARKS. YOU KNOW, SO WE KNOW THAT WHEN OPENING REMARKS. YOU KNOW, SO WE KNOW THAT WHEN OPENING REMARKS. YOU KNOW, SO WE KNOW THAT WHEN YOU BUY SOMETHING ON AMAZON, YOU KNOW, SO WE KNOW THAT WHEN YOU BUY SOMETHING ON AMAZON, YOU KNOW, SO WE KNOW THAT WHEN YOU BUY SOMETHING ON AMAZON, WHICH PEOPLE DID A LOT, OVER THE YOU BUY SOMETHING ON AMAZON, WHICH PEOPLE DID A LOT, OVER THE YOU BUY SOMETHING ON AMAZON, WHICH PEOPLE DID A LOT, OVER THE CHRISTMAS SEASON, IT'S NOT WHICH PEOPLE DID A LOT, OVER THE CHRISTMAS SEASON, IT'S NOT WHICH PEOPLE DID A LOT, OVER THE CHRISTMAS SEASON, IT'S NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL CHRISTMAS SEASON, IT'S NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL CHRISTMAS SEASON, IT'S NOT CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA. CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA. CAPTURED IN CANADIAN RETAIL SALES DATA. AND WE KNOW FROM U.S. DATA POINT SALES DATA. AND WE KNOW FROM U.S. DATA POINT SALES DATA. AND WE KNOW FROM U.S. DATA POINT THAT RETAIL SALES WERE AND WE KNOW FROM U.S. DATA POINT THAT RETAIL SALES WERE AND WE KNOW FROM U.S. DATA POINT THAT RETAIL SALES WERE SPECTACULARLY STRONG IN THAT RETAIL SALES WERE SPECTACULARLY STRONG IN THAT RETAIL SALES WERE SPECTACULARLY STRONG IN DECEMBER. SPECTACULARLY STRONG IN DECEMBER. SPECTACULARLY STRONG IN DECEMBER. LIKE, 13% GROWTH. DECEMBER. LIKE, 13% GROWTH. DECEMBER. LIKE, 13% GROWTH. THAT INCLUDES RETAIL SALES FROM LIKE, 13% GROWTH. THAT INCLUDES RETAIL SALES FROM LIKE, 13% GROWTH. THAT INCLUDES RETAIL SALES FROM CANADA, BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW, THAT INCLUDES RETAIL SALES FROM CANADA, BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW, THAT INCLUDES RETAIL SALES FROM CANADA, BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW, THE AMAZON CHANNEL, WHICH IS NOT CANADA, BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW, THE AMAZON CHANNEL, WHICH IS NOT CANADA, BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW, THE AMAZON CHANNEL, WHICH IS NOT A CANADIAN RETAILER. THE AMAZON CHANNEL, WHICH IS NOT A CANADIAN RETAILER. THE AMAZON CHANNEL, WHICH IS NOT A CANADIAN RETAILER. SO THAT -- WHAT HAPPENS IS A CANADIAN RETAILER. SO THAT -- WHAT HAPPENS IS A CANADIAN RETAILER. SO THAT -- WHAT HAPPENS IS CANADA DOES ITS VERY BEST FOR SO THAT -- WHAT HAPPENS IS CANADA DOES ITS VERY BEST FOR SO THAT -- WHAT HAPPENS IS CANADA DOES ITS VERY BEST FOR THAT DEFICIENCY WHEN THEY DO THE CANADA DOES ITS VERY BEST FOR THAT DEFICIENCY WHEN THEY DO THE CANADA DOES ITS VERY BEST FOR THAT DEFICIENCY WHEN THEY DO THE NATIONAL COUNTS. THAT DEFICIENCY WHEN THEY DO THE NATIONAL COUNTS. THAT DEFICIENCY WHEN THEY DO THE NATIONAL COUNTS. BECAUSE THEN THEY HAVE ALL THE NATIONAL COUNTS. BECAUSE THEN THEY HAVE ALL THE NATIONAL COUNTS. BECAUSE THEN THEY HAVE ALL THE IMPORT DATA AND YOUR INCOME DATA BECAUSE THEN THEY HAVE ALL THE IMPORT DATA AND YOUR INCOME DATA BECAUSE THEN THEY HAVE ALL THE IMPORT DATA AND YOUR INCOME DATA AND ALL THAT. IMPORT DATA AND YOUR INCOME DATA AND ALL THAT. IMPORT DATA AND YOUR INCOME DATA AND ALL THAT. TO RECONCILE THINGS. AND ALL THAT. TO RECONCILE THINGS. AND ALL THAT. TO RECONCILE THINGS. BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, CANADIAN TO RECONCILE THINGS. BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, CANADIAN TO RECONCILE THINGS. BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, CANADIAN RETAIL SALES HAVE LOOKED SOFT. BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, CANADIAN RETAIL SALES HAVE LOOKED SOFT. BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, CANADIAN RETAIL SALES HAVE LOOKED SOFT. SO YOU GOT TO INSERT A LITTLE RETAIL SALES HAVE LOOKED SOFT. SO YOU GOT TO INSERT A LITTLE RETAIL SALES HAVE LOOKED SOFT. SO YOU GOT TO INSERT A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT IF THE SO YOU GOT TO INSERT A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT IF THE SO YOU GOT TO INSERT A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT IF THE READING SO IF YOU GET THE UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT IF THE READING SO IF YOU GET THE UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT IF THE READING SO IF YOU GET THE NATIONAL COUNCIL REASSURES YOU, READING SO IF YOU GET THE NATIONAL COUNCIL REASSURES YOU, READING SO IF YOU GET THE NATIONAL COUNCIL REASSURES YOU, THEN -- THOSE ARE THE KIND OF NATIONAL COUNCIL REASSURES YOU, THEN -- THOSE ARE THE KIND OF NATIONAL COUNCIL REASSURES YOU, THEN -- THOSE ARE THE KIND OF THINGS THAT CAN REALLY CHANGE THEN -- THOSE ARE THE KIND OF THINGS THAT CAN REALLY CHANGE THEN -- THOSE ARE THE KIND OF THINGS THAT CAN REALLY CHANGE THE COLOUR OF THE ANALYSIS. THINGS THAT CAN REALLY CHANGE THE COLOUR OF THE ANALYSIS. THINGS THAT CAN REALLY CHANGE THE COLOUR OF THE ANALYSIS. >> Question: THANK YOU, THE COLOUR OF THE ANALYSIS. >> Question: THANK YOU, THE COLOUR OF THE ANALYSIS. >> Question: THANK YOU, GOVERNOR, FOR TAKING MY >> Question: THANK YOU, GOVERNOR, FOR TAKING MY >> Question: THANK YOU, GOVERNOR, FOR TAKING MY QUESTION. GOVERNOR, FOR TAKING MY QUESTION. GOVERNOR, FOR TAKING MY QUESTION. YOU'VE MENTIONED THAT YOU EXPECT QUESTION. YOU'VE MENTIONED THAT YOU EXPECT QUESTION. YOU'VE MENTIONED THAT YOU EXPECT A REBOUND IN GROWTH FOR Q 1, BUT YOU'VE MENTIONED THAT YOU EXPECT A REBOUND IN GROWTH FOR Q 1, BUT YOU'VE MENTIONED THAT YOU EXPECT A REBOUND IN GROWTH FOR Q 1, BUT IT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT IT'S A REBOUND IN GROWTH FOR Q 1, BUT IT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT IT'S A REBOUND IN GROWTH FOR Q 1, BUT IT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT IT'S AT A RATE SLOWER THAN WAS IT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT IT'S AT A RATE SLOWER THAN WAS IT'S OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT IT'S AT A RATE SLOWER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE BANK. AT A RATE SLOWER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE BANK. AT A RATE SLOWER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE BANK. WHY IS THAT? PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE BANK. WHY IS THAT? PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE BANK. WHY IS THAT? WHY DO YOU SEE A SLOWER REBOUND WHY IS THAT? WHY DO YOU SEE A SLOWER REBOUND WHY IS THAT? WHY DO YOU SEE A SLOWER REBOUND THAN FIRST EXPECTED? WHY DO YOU SEE A SLOWER REBOUND THAN FIRST EXPECTED? WHY DO YOU SEE A SLOWER REBOUND THAN FIRST EXPECTED? >> WELL, FOR ALL THE THINGS THAT THAN FIRST EXPECTED? >> WELL, FOR ALL THE THINGS THAT THAN FIRST EXPECTED? >> WELL, FOR ALL THE THINGS THAT WE JUST HAVE BEEN MENTIONING. >> WELL, FOR ALL THE THINGS THAT WE JUST HAVE BEEN MENTIONING. >> WELL, FOR ALL THE THINGS THAT WE JUST HAVE BEEN MENTIONING. IT'S OFTEN -- SOMETIMES WHEN YOU WE JUST HAVE BEEN MENTIONING. IT'S OFTEN -- SOMETIMES WHEN YOU WE JUST HAVE BEEN MENTIONING. IT'S OFTEN -- SOMETIMES WHEN YOU GET A DATA POINT THAT SURPRISES IT'S OFTEN -- SOMETIMES WHEN YOU GET A DATA POINT THAT SURPRISES IT'S OFTEN -- SOMETIMES WHEN YOU GET A DATA POINT THAT SURPRISES YOU, YOU CAN FIND SPECIAL GET A DATA POINT THAT SURPRISES YOU, YOU CAN FIND SPECIAL GET A DATA POINT THAT SURPRISES YOU, YOU CAN FIND SPECIAL FACTORS AND THINK OH, THE VERY YOU, YOU CAN FIND SPECIAL FACTORS AND THINK OH, THE VERY YOU, YOU CAN FIND SPECIAL FACTORS AND THINK OH, THE VERY NEXT TIME I SEE THOSE DATA FACTORS AND THINK OH, THE VERY NEXT TIME I SEE THOSE DATA FACTORS AND THINK OH, THE VERY NEXT TIME I SEE THOSE DATA POINTS, IT WILL BE REVERSED. NEXT TIME I SEE THOSE DATA POINTS, IT WILL BE REVERSED. NEXT TIME I SEE THOSE DATA POINTS, IT WILL BE REVERSED. OTHER TIMES, YOU SEE THIS AND POINTS, IT WILL BE REVERSED. OTHER TIMES, YOU SEE THIS AND POINTS, IT WILL BE REVERSED. OTHER TIMES, YOU SEE THIS AND OTHER THINGS COME TOGETHER. OTHER TIMES, YOU SEE THIS AND OTHER THINGS COME TOGETHER. OTHER TIMES, YOU SEE THIS AND OTHER THINGS COME TOGETHER. LIKE I SAID BEFORE, WE DIDN'T OTHER THINGS COME TOGETHER. LIKE I SAID BEFORE, WE DIDN'T OTHER THINGS COME TOGETHER. LIKE I SAID BEFORE, WE DIDN'T JUST HAVE SOME WEAK RETAIL LIKE I SAID BEFORE, WE DIDN'T JUST HAVE SOME WEAK RETAIL LIKE I SAID BEFORE, WE DIDN'T JUST HAVE SOME WEAK RETAIL SALES. JUST HAVE SOME WEAK RETAIL SALES. JUST HAVE SOME WEAK RETAIL SALES. WE HAD WEAK VEHICLE SALES. SALES. WE HAD WEAK VEHICLE SALES. SALES. WE HAD WEAK VEHICLE SALES. YOU COULD MEASURE THEM WELL. WE HAD WEAK VEHICLE SALES. YOU COULD MEASURE THEM WELL. WE HAD WEAK VEHICLE SALES. YOU COULD MEASURE THEM WELL. WE HAD DECLINING CONSUMER YOU COULD MEASURE THEM WELL. WE HAD DECLINING CONSUMER YOU COULD MEASURE THEM WELL. WE HAD DECLINING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND YOU CAN MEASURE WE HAD DECLINING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND YOU CAN MEASURE WE HAD DECLINING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND YOU CAN MEASURE THAT QUITE WELL. CONFIDENCE AND YOU CAN MEASURE THAT QUITE WELL. CONFIDENCE AND YOU CAN MEASURE THAT QUITE WELL. SO THOSE THINGS FEEL MORE -- THAT QUITE WELL. SO THOSE THINGS FEEL MORE -- THAT QUITE WELL. SO THOSE THINGS FEEL MORE -- THEY'RE NOT JUST SURPRISES. SO THOSE THINGS FEEL MORE -- THEY'RE NOT JUST SURPRISES. SO THOSE THINGS FEEL MORE -- THEY'RE NOT JUST SURPRISES. THEY'RE MORE PROFOUND. THEY'RE NOT JUST SURPRISES. THEY'RE MORE PROFOUND. THEY'RE NOT JUST SURPRISES. THEY'RE MORE PROFOUND. AND SO THE QUESTION IS: WHAT IS THEY'RE MORE PROFOUND. AND SO THE QUESTION IS: WHAT IS THEY'RE MORE PROFOUND. AND SO THE QUESTION IS: WHAT IS DRIVING THAT? AND SO THE QUESTION IS: WHAT IS DRIVING THAT? AND SO THE QUESTION IS: WHAT IS DRIVING THAT? SO IT'S MORE BEHAVIOURAL THAN DRIVING THAT? SO IT'S MORE BEHAVIOURAL THAN DRIVING THAT? SO IT'S MORE BEHAVIOURAL THAN CAN'T BLAME THAT ON THE WEATHER SO IT'S MORE BEHAVIOURAL THAN CAN'T BLAME THAT ON THE WEATHER SO IT'S MORE BEHAVIOURAL THAN CAN'T BLAME THAT ON THE WEATHER PER SE AND THE WEATHER MAY HAVE CAN'T BLAME THAT ON THE WEATHER PER SE AND THE WEATHER MAY HAVE CAN'T BLAME THAT ON THE WEATHER PER SE AND THE WEATHER MAY HAVE PLAYED A ROLE AND CONTRIBUTED TO PER SE AND THE WEATHER MAY HAVE PLAYED A ROLE AND CONTRIBUTED TO PER SE AND THE WEATHER MAY HAVE PLAYED A ROLE AND CONTRIBUTED TO IT, MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN IT PLAYED A ROLE AND CONTRIBUTED TO IT, MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN IT PLAYED A ROLE AND CONTRIBUTED TO IT, MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN IT IS. IT, MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN IT IS. IT, MAKE IT LOOK WORSE THAN IT IS. SO THAT'S WHY WE -- IT BECOMES A IS. SO THAT'S WHY WE -- IT BECOMES A IS. SO THAT'S WHY WE -- IT BECOMES A QUESTION MARK. SO THAT'S WHY WE -- IT BECOMES A QUESTION MARK. SO THAT'S WHY WE -- IT BECOMES A QUESTION MARK. AND IN ADDITION, YOU GET AN QUESTION MARK. AND IN ADDITION, YOU GET AN QUESTION MARK. AND IN ADDITION, YOU GET AN INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT PROCESS. AND IN ADDITION, YOU GET AN INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT PROCESS. AND IN ADDITION, YOU GET AN INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT PROCESS. SO YOU BUY LESS TODAY, THEN THE INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT PROCESS. SO YOU BUY LESS TODAY, THEN THE INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT PROCESS. SO YOU BUY LESS TODAY, THEN THE INVENTORIES GO UP AND THE SO YOU BUY LESS TODAY, THEN THE INVENTORIES GO UP AND THE SO YOU BUY LESS TODAY, THEN THE INVENTORIES GO UP AND THE SUPPLIERS CAN ORDER LESS IN Q 1, INVENTORIES GO UP AND THE SUPPLIERS CAN ORDER LESS IN Q 1, INVENTORIES GO UP AND THE SUPPLIERS CAN ORDER LESS IN Q 1, SO YOU GET THAT -- THE THING SUPPLIERS CAN ORDER LESS IN Q 1, SO YOU GET THAT -- THE THING SUPPLIERS CAN ORDER LESS IN Q 1, SO YOU GET THAT -- THE THING ALMOST BY DEFINITION BECOMES A SO YOU GET THAT -- THE THING ALMOST BY DEFINITION BECOMES A SO YOU GET THAT -- THE THING ALMOST BY DEFINITION BECOMES A BIT MORE PROLONGED AS EVERYBODY ALMOST BY DEFINITION BECOMES A BIT MORE PROLONGED AS EVERYBODY ALMOST BY DEFINITION BECOMES A BIT MORE PROLONGED AS EVERYBODY REACTS TO IT. BIT MORE PROLONGED AS EVERYBODY REACTS TO IT. BIT MORE PROLONGED AS EVERYBODY REACTS TO IT. SO AS LONG AS WE CAN UNDERSTAND REACTS TO IT. SO AS LONG AS WE CAN UNDERSTAND REACTS TO IT. SO AS LONG AS WE CAN UNDERSTAND THOSE COMPONENTS AND IF WE SO AS LONG AS WE CAN UNDERSTAND THOSE COMPONENTS AND IF WE SO AS LONG AS WE CAN UNDERSTAND THOSE COMPONENTS AND IF WE CONTEND THE DYNAMICS ARE AS WE THOSE COMPONENTS AND IF WE CONTEND THE DYNAMICS ARE AS WE THOSE COMPONENTS AND IF WE CONTEND THE DYNAMICS ARE AS WE DESCRIBED HERE, WE'LL BE CONTEND THE DYNAMICS ARE AS WE DESCRIBED HERE, WE'LL BE CONTEND THE DYNAMICS ARE AS WE DESCRIBED HERE, WE'LL BE CONFIRMING OUR NARRATIVE, BUT DESCRIBED HERE, WE'LL BE CONFIRMING OUR NARRATIVE, BUT DESCRIBED HERE, WE'LL BE CONFIRMING OUR NARRATIVE, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVERY CONFIRMING OUR NARRATIVE, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVERY CONFIRMING OUR NARRATIVE, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVERY BIT OF IT TO BE -- SO JUST -- WE'LL HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVERY BIT OF IT TO BE -- SO JUST -- WE'LL HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVERY BIT OF IT TO BE -- SO JUST -- IT'S JUST THE WAY FORECASTS BIT OF IT TO BE -- SO JUST -- IT'S JUST THE WAY FORECASTS BIT OF IT TO BE -- SO JUST -- IT'S JUST THE WAY FORECASTS WORK. IT'S JUST THE WAY FORECASTS WORK. IT'S JUST THE WAY FORECASTS WORK. THEY TEND TO HAVE A DYNAMIC TO WORK. THEY TEND TO HAVE A DYNAMIC TO WORK. THEY TEND TO HAVE A DYNAMIC TO THEM. THEY TEND TO HAVE A DYNAMIC TO THEM. THEY TEND TO HAVE A DYNAMIC TO THEM. DEPENDING WHAT YOUR UNDERLYING THEM. DEPENDING WHAT YOUR UNDERLYING THEM. DEPENDING WHAT YOUR UNDERLYING NARRATIVE IS. DEPENDING WHAT YOUR UNDERLYING NARRATIVE IS. DEPENDING WHAT YOUR UNDERLYING NARRATIVE IS. IF IT'S BEHAVIOURAL, THEN IT NARRATIVE IS. IF IT'S BEHAVIOURAL, THEN IT NARRATIVE IS. IF IT'S BEHAVIOURAL, THEN IT DOESN'T USUALLY END JUST IF IT'S BEHAVIOURAL, THEN IT DOESN'T USUALLY END JUST IF IT'S BEHAVIOURAL, THEN IT DOESN'T USUALLY END JUST INSTANTLY. DOESN'T USUALLY END JUST INSTANTLY. DOESN'T USUALLY END JUST INSTANTLY. >> YOU'VE CLEARLY LEFT THE DOOR INSTANTLY. >> YOU'VE CLEARLY LEFT THE DOOR INSTANTLY. >> YOU'VE CLEARLY LEFT THE DOOR OPEN TO A POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN >> YOU'VE CLEARLY LEFT THE DOOR OPEN TO A POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN >> YOU'VE CLEARLY LEFT THE DOOR OPEN TO A POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE. OPEN TO A POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE. OPEN TO A POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE. I'M WONDERING, THOUGH, IF IT'S THE FUTURE. I'M WONDERING, THOUGH, IF IT'S THE FUTURE. I'M WONDERING, THOUGH, IF IT'S THE RIGHT TIME TO BE CONSIDERING I'M WONDERING, THOUGH, IF IT'S THE RIGHT TIME TO BE CONSIDERING I'M WONDERING, THOUGH, IF IT'S THE RIGHT TIME TO BE CONSIDERING A CUT GIVEN THAT THERE'S THIS THE RIGHT TIME TO BE CONSIDERING A CUT GIVEN THAT THERE'S THIS THE RIGHT TIME TO BE CONSIDERING A CUT GIVEN THAT THERE'S THIS UNEXPECTED UPTICK IN THE HOUSING A CUT GIVEN THAT THERE'S THIS UNEXPECTED UPTICK IN THE HOUSING A CUT GIVEN THAT THERE'S THIS UNEXPECTED UPTICK IN THE HOUSING MARK UNEXPECTED UPTICK IN THE HOUSING MARK UNEXPECTED UPTICK IN THE HOUSING MARK >> AS YOU KNOW, THE TARGET FOR MARK >> AS YOU KNOW, THE TARGET FOR MARK >> AS YOU KNOW, THE TARGET FOR INFLATION IS IT 2% AND THAT IS >> AS YOU KNOW, THE TARGET FOR INFLATION IS IT 2% AND THAT IS >> AS YOU KNOW, THE TARGET FOR INFLATION IS IT 2% AND THAT IS OUR TARGET. INFLATION IS IT 2% AND THAT IS OUR TARGET. INFLATION IS IT 2% AND THAT IS OUR TARGET. BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, IT HAS TO OUR TARGET. BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, IT HAS TO OUR TARGET. BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, IT HAS TO BE A FORWARD LOOKING EXERCISE BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, IT HAS TO BE A FORWARD LOOKING EXERCISE BUT AS I SAID EARLIER, IT HAS TO BE A FORWARD LOOKING EXERCISE WHERE DID HIS NOT -- IT HELPS TO BE A FORWARD LOOKING EXERCISE WHERE DID HIS NOT -- IT HELPS TO BE A FORWARD LOOKING EXERCISE WHERE DID HIS NOT -- IT HELPS TO KNOW THAT INFLATION'S THE 2 WHERE DID HIS NOT -- IT HELPS TO KNOW THAT INFLATION'S THE 2 WHERE DID HIS NOT -- IT HELPS TO KNOW THAT INFLATION'S THE 2 TODAY BECAUSE THAT GIVES US A KNOW THAT INFLATION'S THE 2 TODAY BECAUSE THAT GIVES US A KNOW THAT INFLATION'S THE 2 TODAY BECAUSE THAT GIVES US A GOOD STARTING POINT. TODAY BECAUSE THAT GIVES US A GOOD STARTING POINT. TODAY BECAUSE THAT GIVES US A GOOD STARTING POINT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THERE GOOD STARTING POINT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THERE GOOD STARTING POINT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THERE ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN. AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THERE ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN. AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THERE ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN. WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC BOTH, ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN. WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC BOTH, ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN. WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC BOTH, WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, WE SEE A WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC BOTH, WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, WE SEE A WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC BOTH, WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, WE SEE A REBOUND COMING. WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, WE SEE A REBOUND COMING. WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, WE SEE A REBOUND COMING. WE DON'T THINK THAT THE WEAKNESS REBOUND COMING. WE DON'T THINK THAT THE WEAKNESS REBOUND COMING. WE DON'T THINK THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE MIXED DATA THAT WE SAW WE DON'T THINK THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE MIXED DATA THAT WE SAW WE DON'T THINK THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE MIXED DATA THAT WE SAW LATER LAST YEAR IS GOING TO BE IN THE MIXED DATA THAT WE SAW LATER LAST YEAR IS GOING TO BE IN THE MIXED DATA THAT WE SAW LATER LAST YEAR IS GOING TO BE PERSISTENT. LATER LAST YEAR IS GOING TO BE PERSISTENT. LATER LAST YEAR IS GOING TO BE PERSISTENT. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE PERSISTENT. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE PERSISTENT. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THAT. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THAT. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THAT. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S THIS CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THAT. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S THIS CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THAT. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S THIS TRADEOFF THAT YOU MENTIONED AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S THIS TRADEOFF THAT YOU MENTIONED AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S THIS TRADEOFF THAT YOU MENTIONED ABOUT VULNERABILITIES. TRADEOFF THAT YOU MENTIONED ABOUT VULNERABILITIES. TRADEOFF THAT YOU MENTIONED ABOUT VULNERABILITIES. WHAT THOSE REALLY ARE WITH ABOUT VULNERABILITIES. WHAT THOSE REALLY ARE WITH ABOUT VULNERABILITIES. WHAT THOSE REALLY ARE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WE THINK OR HOW WHAT THOSE REALLY ARE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WE THINK OR HOW WHAT THOSE REALLY ARE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WE THINK OR HOW WELL WE THINK WE CAN CONTROL RESPECT TO WHERE WE THINK OR HOW WELL WE THINK WE CAN CONTROL RESPECT TO WHERE WE THINK OR HOW WELL WE THINK WE CAN CONTROL INFLATION IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE WELL WE THINK WE CAN CONTROL INFLATION IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE WELL WE THINK WE CAN CONTROL INFLATION IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE IF WE CONTRIBUTE TO HOUSEHOLD INFLATION IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE IF WE CONTRIBUTE TO HOUSEHOLD INFLATION IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE IF WE CONTRIBUTE TO HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES, WE'RE MORE THAN IF WE CONTRIBUTE TO HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES, WE'RE MORE THAN IF WE CONTRIBUTE TO HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES, WE'RE MORE THAN AY. VULNERABILITIES, WE'RE MORE THAN AY. VULNERABILITIES, WE'RE MORE THAN AY. THAT COULD MEAN FURTHER DOWN THE AY. THAT COULD MEAN FURTHER DOWN THE AY. THAT COULD MEAN FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD, IF WE HAVE WHEN THEY GOT THAT COULD MEAN FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD, IF WE HAVE WHEN THEY GOT THAT COULD MEAN FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD, IF WE HAVE WHEN THEY GOT SOMETHING SLOW, WE COULD BE IN A ROAD, IF WE HAVE WHEN THEY GOT SOMETHING SLOW, WE COULD BE IN A ROAD, IF WE HAVE WHEN THEY GOT SOMETHING SLOW, WE COULD BE IN A TOUGH POSITION ACHIEVING MUCH SOMETHING SLOW, WE COULD BE IN A TOUGH POSITION ACHIEVING MUCH SOMETHING SLOW, WE COULD BE IN A TOUGH POSITION ACHIEVING MUCH FURTHER AWAY. TOUGH POSITION ACHIEVING MUCH FURTHER AWAY. TOUGH POSITION ACHIEVING MUCH FURTHER AWAY. WE HAD TO BALANCE THAT, GETTING FURTHER AWAY. WE HAD TO BALANCE THAT, GETTING FURTHER AWAY. WE HAD TO BALANCE THAT, GETTING OUR INFLATION BANG ON TODAY. WE HAD TO BALANCE THAT, GETTING OUR INFLATION BANG ON TODAY. WE HAD TO BALANCE THAT, GETTING OUR INFLATION BANG ON TODAY. ONE THING WITH VULNERABILITIES, OUR INFLATION BANG ON TODAY. ONE THING WITH VULNERABILITIES, OUR INFLATION BANG ON TODAY. ONE THING WITH VULNERABILITIES, IS THAT WE DO SEE THAT THEY HAVE ONE THING WITH VULNERABILITIES, IS THAT WE DO SEE THAT THEY HAVE ONE THING WITH VULNERABILITIES, IS THAT WE DO SEE THAT THEY HAVE HOUSING MARKET. IS THAT WE DO SEE THAT THEY HAVE HOUSING MARKET. IS THAT WE DO SEE THAT THEY HAVE HOUSING MARKET. WE DON'T SEE WE SEE MORE SAVINGS HOUSING MARKET. WE DON'T SEE WE SEE MORE SAVINGS HOUSING MARKET. WE DON'T SEE WE SEE MORE SAVINGS THAN WE THOUGHT. WE DON'T SEE WE SEE MORE SAVINGS THAN WE THOUGHT. WE DON'T SEE WE SEE MORE SAVINGS THAN WE THOUGHT. AGAIN, THAT'S IMPORTANT THAN WE THOUGHT. AGAIN, THAT'S IMPORTANT THAN WE THOUGHT. AGAIN, THAT'S IMPORTANT INFORMATION. AGAIN, THAT'S IMPORTANT INFORMATION. AGAIN, THAT'S IMPORTANT INFORMATION. THESE TRADEOFFS ARE SOMETHING INFORMATION. THESE TRADEOFFS ARE SOMETHING INFORMATION. THESE TRADEOFFS ARE SOMETHING THEY'RE CAST IN STONE. THESE TRADEOFFS ARE SOMETHING THEY'RE CAST IN STONE. THESE TRADEOFFS ARE SOMETHING THEY'RE CAST IN STONE. SOMETHING TO CHANGE OVER TIME. THEY'RE CAST IN STONE. SOMETHING TO CHANGE OVER TIME. THEY'RE CAST IN STONE. SOMETHING TO CHANGE OVER TIME. THE DATA ON THE ECONOMY. SOMETHING TO CHANGE OVER TIME. THE DATA ON THE ECONOMY. SOMETHING TO CHANGE OVER TIME. THE DATA ON THE ECONOMY. >> GOING TO HEALTHER AND GLORIA. THE DATA ON THE ECONOMY. >> GOING TO HEALTHER AND GLORIA. THE DATA ON THE ECONOMY. >> GOING TO HEALTHER AND GLORIA. >> GOOD MORNING. >> GOING TO HEALTHER AND GLORIA. >> GOOD MORNING. >> GOING TO HEALTHER AND GLORIA. >> GOOD MORNING. WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE >> GOOD MORNING. WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE >> GOOD MORNING. WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE BIGGER RISK OUT THERE, CONSUMER WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE BIGGER RISK OUT THERE, CONSUMER WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE BIGGER RISK OUT THERE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE FACT THAT BIGGER RISK OUT THERE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE FACT THAT BIGGER RISK OUT THERE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE FACT THAT THERE'S IT COULD BE RATIFIED CONFIDENCE AND THE FACT THAT THERE'S IT COULD BE RATIFIED CONFIDENCE AND THE FACT THAT THERE'S IT COULD BE RATIFIED INLINE AND U.S. BUT WE'VE GOT THERE'S IT COULD BE RATIFIED INLINE AND U.S. BUT WE'VE GOT THERE'S IT COULD BE RATIFIED INLINE AND U.S. BUT WE'VE GOT MIDDLE EAST ON THE RISE,OFF SET INLINE AND U.S. BUT WE'VE GOT MIDDLE EAST ON THE RISE,OFF SET INLINE AND U.S. BUT WE'VE GOT MIDDLE EAST ON THE RISE,OFF SET EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF TURMOIL. MIDDLE EAST ON THE RISE,OFF SET EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF TURMOIL. MIDDLE EAST ON THE RISE,OFF SET EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF TURMOIL. >> WELL, YOU WOULD NOTICE RISK EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF TURMOIL. >> WELL, YOU WOULD NOTICE RISK EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF TURMOIL. >> WELL, YOU WOULD NOTICE RISK AND ASSESSMENT ARE BACK. >> WELL, YOU WOULD NOTICE RISK AND ASSESSMENT ARE BACK. >> WELL, YOU WOULD NOTICE RISK AND ASSESSMENT ARE BACK. AND THE TRADE SIDE WAS IN THE AND ASSESSMENT ARE BACK. AND THE TRADE SIDE WAS IN THE AND ASSESSMENT ARE BACK. AND THE TRADE SIDE WAS IN THE WHAT WE CALL THE ATTIC OR THE AND THE TRADE SIDE WAS IN THE WHAT WE CALL THE ATTIC OR THE AND THE TRADE SIDE WAS IN THE WHAT WE CALL THE ATTIC OR THE TOP PART OF THE RISK. WHAT WE CALL THE ATTIC OR THE TOP PART OF THE RISK. WHAT WE CALL THE ATTIC OR THE TOP PART OF THE RISK. TO TAKE ALL THAT RISK INTO THE TOP PART OF THE RISK. TO TAKE ALL THAT RISK INTO THE TOP PART OF THE RISK. TO TAKE ALL THAT RISK INTO THE FORECAST. TO TAKE ALL THAT RISK INTO THE FORECAST. TO TAKE ALL THAT RISK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF FORECAST. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF FORECAST. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THE FORECASTER'S JOB WHICH THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THE FORECASTER'S JOB WHICH THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THE FORECASTER'S JOB WHICH PRESENTS US A BALANCED FORECAST THE FORECASTER'S JOB WHICH PRESENTS US A BALANCED FORECAST THE FORECASTER'S JOB WHICH PRESENTS US A BALANCED FORECAST ONE IN WHICH THAT'S UP SIDE AND PRESENTS US A BALANCED FORECAST ONE IN WHICH THAT'S UP SIDE AND PRESENTS US A BALANCED FORECAST ONE IN WHICH THAT'S UP SIDE AND DOWN SIDE. ONE IN WHICH THAT'S UP SIDE AND DOWN SIDE. ONE IN WHICH THAT'S UP SIDE AND DOWN SIDE. CERTAIN RISKS ARE HARD TO DOWN SIDE. CERTAIN RISKS ARE HARD TO DOWN SIDE. CERTAIN RISKS ARE HARD TO IDENTIFY OR MEASURE THEIR IMPACT CERTAIN RISKS ARE HARD TO IDENTIFY OR MEASURE THEIR IMPACT CERTAIN RISKS ARE HARD TO IDENTIFY OR MEASURE THEIR IMPACT OR TO PREDICT HOW THEY MIGHT IDENTIFY OR MEASURE THEIR IMPACT OR TO PREDICT HOW THEY MIGHT IDENTIFY OR MEASURE THEIR IMPACT OR TO PREDICT HOW THEY MIGHT SHOW UP. OR TO PREDICT HOW THEY MIGHT SHOW UP. OR TO PREDICT HOW THEY MIGHT SHOW UP. WE CALL THEM FELL RISK AND IS IF SHOW UP. WE CALL THEM FELL RISK AND IS IF SHOW UP. WE CALL THEM FELL RISK AND IS IF THEY CAME, YOU WOULD HAVE TO WE CALL THEM FELL RISK AND IS IF THEY CAME, YOU WOULD HAVE TO WE CALL THEM FELL RISK AND IS IF THEY CAME, YOU WOULD HAVE TO REWRITE YOUR WHOLE FORECAST. THEY CAME, YOU WOULD HAVE TO REWRITE YOUR WHOLE FORECAST. THEY CAME, YOU WOULD HAVE TO REWRITE YOUR WHOLE FORECAST. SO THEY'RE KIND OF EXCLUDED FROM REWRITE YOUR WHOLE FORECAST. SO THEY'RE KIND OF EXCLUDED FROM REWRITE YOUR WHOLE FORECAST. SO THEY'RE KIND OF EXCLUDED FROM THAT BALANCE. SO THEY'RE KIND OF EXCLUDED FROM THAT BALANCE. SO THEY'RE KIND OF EXCLUDED FROM THAT BALANCE. THAT'S WHERE TRADE WAS BEFORE. THAT BALANCE. THAT'S WHERE TRADE WAS BEFORE. THAT BALANCE. THAT'S WHERE TRADE WAS BEFORE. WHAT WE'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT, THAT'S WHERE TRADE WAS BEFORE. WHAT WE'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT, THAT'S WHERE TRADE WAS BEFORE. WHAT WE'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT, OKAY, NOW WE'VE SEEN SOME WHAT WE'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT, OKAY, NOW WE'VE SEEN SOME WHAT WE'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT, OKAY, NOW WE'VE SEEN SOME MEANINGFUL PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY OKAY, NOW WE'VE SEEN SOME MEANINGFUL PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY OKAY, NOW WE'VE SEEN SOME MEANINGFUL PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MAIN CHANNEL BY WHICH MEANINGFUL PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MAIN CHANNEL BY WHICH MEANINGFUL PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MAIN CHANNEL BY WHICH ALL THIS TURMOIL ON THE TRADE SINCE THE MAIN CHANNEL BY WHICH ALL THIS TURMOIL ON THE TRADE SINCE THE MAIN CHANNEL BY WHICH ALL THIS TURMOIL ON THE TRADE FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING US IS ALL THIS TURMOIL ON THE TRADE FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING US IS ALL THIS TURMOIL ON THE TRADE FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING US IS -- AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO, IS FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING US IS -- AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO, IS FRONT HAS BEEN AFFECTING US IS -- AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO, IS THROUGH THE INVESTMENT CHANNEL. -- AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO, IS THROUGH THE INVESTMENT CHANNEL. -- AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO, IS THROUGH THE INVESTMENT CHANNEL. NOT SO MUCH ABOUT TRADE, FACT THROUGH THE INVESTMENT CHANNEL. NOT SO MUCH ABOUT TRADE, FACT THROUGH THE INVESTMENT CHANNEL. NOT SO MUCH ABOUT TRADE, FACT THAT TRADE INDICATORS HAVE NOT SO MUCH ABOUT TRADE, FACT THAT TRADE INDICATORS HAVE NOT SO MUCH ABOUT TRADE, FACT THAT TRADE INDICATORS HAVE SLOWED A LOT, IT'S MAINLY THAT TRADE INDICATORS HAVE SLOWED A LOT, IT'S MAINLY THAT TRADE INDICATORS HAVE SLOWED A LOT, IT'S MAINLY BECAUSE INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED A SLOWED A LOT, IT'S MAINLY BECAUSE INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED A SLOWED A LOT, IT'S MAINLY BECAUSE INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED A LO BECAUSE INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED A LO BECAUSE INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED A LO AND INVESTMENT IS A HIGHLY LO AND INVESTMENT IS A HIGHLY LO AND INVESTMENT IS A HIGHLY TRADE-DEPENDENT ACTIVITY. AND INVESTMENT IS A HIGHLY TRADE-DEPENDENT ACTIVITY. AND INVESTMENT IS A HIGHLY TRADE-DEPENDENT ACTIVITY. CAPITAL GOODS CROSSING THE TRADE-DEPENDENT ACTIVITY. CAPITAL GOODS CROSSING THE TRADE-DEPENDENT ACTIVITY. CAPITAL GOODS CROSSING THE GLOBE. CAPITAL GOODS CROSSING THE GLOBE. CAPITAL GOODS CROSSING THE GLOBE. SO THEY GO HAND IN HAND. GLOBE. SO THEY GO HAND IN HAND. GLOBE. SO THEY GO HAND IN HAND. SO THE REST HAS BEEN SORT OF SO THEY GO HAND IN HAND. SO THE REST HAS BEEN SORT OF SO THEY GO HAND IN HAND. SO THE REST HAS BEEN SORT OF MORE TRADE DISTORTING. SO THE REST HAS BEEN SORT OF MORE TRADE DISTORTING. SO THE REST HAS BEEN SORT OF MORE TRADE DISTORTING. SETTING THAT ASIDE THEN, WE MORE TRADE DISTORTING. SETTING THAT ASIDE THEN, WE MORE TRADE DISTORTING. SETTING THAT ASIDE THEN, WE THINK NOW WE CAN MANAGE THAT SETTING THAT ASIDE THEN, WE THINK NOW WE CAN MANAGE THAT SETTING THAT ASIDE THEN, WE THINK NOW WE CAN MANAGE THAT RISK WITHIN OUR RISK ASSESSMENT. THINK NOW WE CAN MANAGE THAT RISK WITHIN OUR RISK ASSESSMENT. THINK NOW WE CAN MANAGE THAT RISK WITHIN OUR RISK ASSESSMENT. THE ONE THING THAT WE COULDN'T RISK WITHIN OUR RISK ASSESSMENT. THE ONE THING THAT WE COULDN'T RISK WITHIN OUR RISK ASSESSMENT. THE ONE THING THAT WE COULDN'T REALLY MANAGE IS THIS INCREASED, THE ONE THING THAT WE COULDN'T REALLY MANAGE IS THIS INCREASED, THE ONE THING THAT WE COULDN'T REALLY MANAGE IS THIS INCREASED, I GUESS, RISK OR INCREASED REALLY MANAGE IS THIS INCREASED, I GUESS, RISK OR INCREASED REALLY MANAGE IS THIS INCREASED, I GUESS, RISK OR INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEVELOPMENTS I GUESS, RISK OR INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEVELOPMENTS I GUESS, RISK OR INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. IN THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. IN THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR OUR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR OUR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST. AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST. AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST. THAT GOES INTO THE RISKS AND IS FORECAST. THAT GOES INTO THE RISKS AND IS FORECAST. THAT GOES INTO THE RISKS AND IS NOT COUNTERED IN THE FORECAST. THAT GOES INTO THE RISKS AND IS NOT COUNTERED IN THE FORECAST. THAT GOES INTO THE RISKS AND IS NOT COUNTERED IN THE FORECAST. QUICK ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION NOT COUNTERED IN THE FORECAST. QUICK ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION NOT COUNTERED IN THE FORECAST. QUICK ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION IS, NO, THEY AREN'T OFFSIDE AT QUICK ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION IS, NO, THEY AREN'T OFFSIDE AT QUICK ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION IS, NO, THEY AREN'T OFFSIDE AT ALL. IS, NO, THEY AREN'T OFFSIDE AT ALL. IS, NO, THEY AREN'T OFFSIDE AT ALL. THEY CAN'T REALLY BE QUANTIFIED ALL. THEY CAN'T REALLY BE QUANTIFIED ALL. THEY CAN'T REALLY BE QUANTIFIED IN A WAY THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU TO THEY CAN'T REALLY BE QUANTIFIED IN A WAY THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU TO THEY CAN'T REALLY BE QUANTIFIED IN A WAY THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU TO DO THAT. IN A WAY THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU TO DO THAT. IN A WAY THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU TO DO THAT. BUT WE DO THINK THAT THE DO THAT. BUT WE DO THINK THAT THE DO THAT. BUT WE DO THINK THAT THE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE. BUT WE DO THINK THAT THE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE. BUT WE DO THINK THAT THE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE. WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO SEE NOW PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE. WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO SEE NOW PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE. WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO SEE NOW SOME RESPONSE FROM INVESTMENT. WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO SEE NOW SOME RESPONSE FROM INVESTMENT. WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO SEE NOW SOME RESPONSE FROM INVESTMENT. OUR BOSS TELLS US THAT COMPANIES SOME RESPONSE FROM INVESTMENT. OUR BOSS TELLS US THAT COMPANIES SOME RESPONSE FROM INVESTMENT. OUR BOSS TELLS US THAT COMPANIES IN CANADA ARE VERY READY, HAVE OUR BOSS TELLS US THAT COMPANIES IN CANADA ARE VERY READY, HAVE OUR BOSS TELLS US THAT COMPANIES IN CANADA ARE VERY READY, HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME, TO INVEST. IN CANADA ARE VERY READY, HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME, TO INVEST. IN CANADA ARE VERY READY, HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME, TO INVEST. AND THAT THE BIG THING HOLDING BEEN FOR SOME TIME, TO INVEST. AND THAT THE BIG THING HOLDING BEEN FOR SOME TIME, TO INVEST. AND THAT THE BIG THING HOLDING THEM BACK HAS BEEN THE AND THAT THE BIG THING HOLDING THEM BACK HAS BEEN THE AND THAT THE BIG THING HOLDING THEM BACK HAS BEEN THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FUTURE OF THEM BACK HAS BEEN THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FUTURE OF THEM BACK HAS BEEN THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FUTURE OF NAFTA/KUZMA, SO IF WE CAN GET UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FUTURE OF NAFTA/KUZMA, SO IF WE CAN GET UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FUTURE OF NAFTA/KUZMA, SO IF WE CAN GET THAT RATIFICATION DONE, I THINK NAFTA/KUZMA, SO IF WE CAN GET THAT RATIFICATION DONE, I THINK NAFTA/KUZMA, SO IF WE CAN GET THAT RATIFICATION DONE, I THINK THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A THAT RATIFICATION DONE, I THINK THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A THAT RATIFICATION DONE, I THINK THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO INVESTMENT IN CANADA. MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO INVESTMENT IN CANADA. MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO INVESTMENT IN CANADA. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT INVESTMENT IN CANADA. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT INVESTMENT IN CANADA. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SLIGHTLY IN OUR OUTLOOK. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SLIGHTLY IN OUR OUTLOOK. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SLIGHTLY IN OUR OUTLOOK. WE'RE NOT ASSUMING IT'S GOING TO SLIGHTLY IN OUR OUTLOOK. WE'RE NOT ASSUMING IT'S GOING TO SLIGHTLY IN OUR OUTLOOK. WE'RE NOT ASSUMING IT'S GOING TO SUDDENLY BE GREAT. WE'RE NOT ASSUMING IT'S GOING TO SUDDENLY BE GREAT. WE'RE NOT ASSUMING IT'S GOING TO SUDDENLY BE GREAT. BUT IF YOU LOOK, THERE'S A CHART SUDDENLY BE GREAT. BUT IF YOU LOOK, THERE'S A CHART SUDDENLY BE GREAT. BUT IF YOU LOOK, THERE'S A CHART IN THERE, I FORGET THE NUMBER OF BUT IF YOU LOOK, THERE'S A CHART IN THERE, I FORGET THE NUMBER OF BUT IF YOU LOOK, THERE'S A CHART IN THERE, I FORGET THE NUMBER OF THAT CHART. IN THERE, I FORGET THE NUMBER OF THAT CHART. IN THERE, I FORGET THE NUMBER OF THAT CHART. ANYWAY, THE ONE WHICH SHOWS THAT CHART. ANYWAY, THE ONE WHICH SHOWS THAT CHART. ANYWAY, THE ONE WHICH SHOWS INVESTMENT, WHAT IT WILL LOOK ANYWAY, THE ONE WHICH SHOWS INVESTMENT, WHAT IT WILL LOOK ANYWAY, THE ONE WHICH SHOWS INVESTMENT, WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE ON OUR MODEL, BASED ON WHAT INVESTMENT, WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE ON OUR MODEL, BASED ON WHAT INVESTMENT, WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE ON OUR MODEL, BASED ON WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW. LIKE ON OUR MODEL, BASED ON WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW. LIKE ON OUR MODEL, BASED ON WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW. THAT GAP IS PROPOSING $10 IT LOOKS LIKE NOW. THAT GAP IS PROPOSING $10 IT LOOKS LIKE NOW. THAT GAP IS PROPOSING $10 BILLION. THAT GAP IS PROPOSING $10 BILLION. THAT GAP IS PROPOSING $10 BILLION. THAT'S A LOT OF EXTRA KICK OF UP BILLION. THAT'S A LOT OF EXTRA KICK OF UP BILLION. THAT'S A LOT OF EXTRA KICK OF UP SIDE POTENTIAL THAT'S AVAILABLE THAT'S A LOT OF EXTRA KICK OF UP SIDE POTENTIAL THAT'S AVAILABLE THAT'S A LOT OF EXTRA KICK OF UP SIDE POTENTIAL THAT'S AVAILABLE BUT SOME OF THOSE INVESTMENT SIDE POTENTIAL THAT'S AVAILABLE BUT SOME OF THOSE INVESTMENT SIDE POTENTIAL THAT'S AVAILABLE BUT SOME OF THOSE INVESTMENT DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE BUT SOME OF THOSE INVESTMENT DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE BUT SOME OF THOSE INVESTMENT DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE SO THEY WON'T COME BACK TO THEM. DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE SO THEY WON'T COME BACK TO THEM. DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE SO THEY WON'T COME BACK TO THEM. IT'S JUST -- THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T SO THEY WON'T COME BACK TO THEM. IT'S JUST -- THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T SO THEY WON'T COME BACK TO THEM. IT'S JUST -- THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T ASSUME THAT WE JUST SUDDENLY GET IT'S JUST -- THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T ASSUME THAT WE JUST SUDDENLY GET IT'S JUST -- THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T ASSUME THAT WE JUST SUDDENLY GET THERE. ASSUME THAT WE JUST SUDDENLY GET THERE. ASSUME THAT WE JUST SUDDENLY GET THERE. BUT IT REPRESENTS THE POTENTIAL THERE. BUT IT REPRESENTS THE POTENTIAL THERE. BUT IT REPRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSIDE RISK IN THE OUTLOOK BUT IT REPRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSIDE RISK IN THE OUTLOOK BUT IT REPRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSIDE RISK IN THE OUTLOOK WHENEVER IT SHOWS UP. FOR UPSIDE RISK IN THE OUTLOOK WHENEVER IT SHOWS UP. FOR UPSIDE RISK IN THE OUTLOOK WHENEVER IT SHOWS UP. >> Question: I NOTICE THERE'S WHENEVER IT SHOWS UP. >> Question: I NOTICE THERE'S WHENEVER IT SHOWS UP. >> Question: I NOTICE THERE'S SOME STOCK MARKET REACTION TO >> Question: I NOTICE THERE'S SOME STOCK MARKET REACTION TO >> Question: I NOTICE THERE'S SOME STOCK MARKET REACTION TO THE CORONAVIRUS. SOME STOCK MARKET REACTION TO THE CORONAVIRUS. SOME STOCK MARKET REACTION TO THE CORONAVIRUS. IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR IN TERMS THE CORONAVIRUS. IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR IN TERMS THE CORONAVIRUS. IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR IN TERMS OF RISKS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR IN TERMS OF RISKS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR IN TERMS OF RISKS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR ECONOMY SOMEHOW GOING FORWARD? OF RISKS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR ECONOMY SOMEHOW GOING FORWARD? OF RISKS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR ECONOMY SOMEHOW GOING FORWARD? >> WELL, WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK ECONOMY SOMEHOW GOING FORWARD? >> WELL, WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK ECONOMY SOMEHOW GOING FORWARD? >> WELL, WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK AT THAT. >> WELL, WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK AT THAT. >> WELL, WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK AT THAT. FIRST AND FOREMOST, IT'S A AT THAT. FIRST AND FOREMOST, IT'S A AT THAT. FIRST AND FOREMOST, IT'S A TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR PEOPLE WHO FIRST AND FOREMOST, IT'S A TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR PEOPLE WHO FIRST AND FOREMOST, IT'S A TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE AFFECTED. TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE AFFECTED. TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE AFFECTED. JUST RECALL, ROLL THINGS BACK TO ARE AFFECTED. JUST RECALL, ROLL THINGS BACK TO ARE AFFECTED. JUST RECALL, ROLL THINGS BACK TO 2003, WHEN WE HAD THE SARS JUST RECALL, ROLL THINGS BACK TO 2003, WHEN WE HAD THE SARS JUST RECALL, ROLL THINGS BACK TO 2003, WHEN WE HAD THE SARS OUTBREAK, WE HAD EXPERIENCED 2003, WHEN WE HAD THE SARS OUTBREAK, WE HAD EXPERIENCED 2003, WHEN WE HAD THE SARS OUTBREAK, WE HAD EXPERIENCED THEN TRYING TO WORK OUT HOW THAT OUTBREAK, WE HAD EXPERIENCED THEN TRYING TO WORK OUT HOW THAT OUTBREAK, WE HAD EXPERIENCED THEN TRYING TO WORK OUT HOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE ECONOMY. THEN TRYING TO WORK OUT HOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE ECONOMY. THEN TRYING TO WORK OUT HOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE ECONOMY. EACH OF THESE EPISODES ARE MIGHT AFFECT THE ECONOMY. EACH OF THESE EPISODES ARE MIGHT AFFECT THE ECONOMY. EACH OF THESE EPISODES ARE DIFFERENT. EACH OF THESE EPISODES ARE DIFFERENT. EACH OF THESE EPISODES ARE DIFFERENT. BUT I JUST POINTED TO THAT DIFFERENT. BUT I JUST POINTED TO THAT DIFFERENT. BUT I JUST POINTED TO THAT BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT BUT I JUST POINTED TO THAT BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT BUT I JUST POINTED TO THAT BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT UNFORTUNATELY HAS HAPPENED BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT UNFORTUNATELY HAS HAPPENED BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT UNFORTUNATELY HAS HAPPENED BEFORE IN SIMILAR WAY AND IT UNFORTUNATELY HAS HAPPENED BEFORE IN SIMILAR WAY AND IT UNFORTUNATELY HAS HAPPENED BEFORE IN SIMILAR WAY AND IT TENDS TO AFFECT AREAS LIKE BEFORE IN SIMILAR WAY AND IT TENDS TO AFFECT AREAS LIKE BEFORE IN SIMILAR WAY AND IT TENDS TO AFFECT AREAS LIKE RETAIL. TENDS TO AFFECT AREAS LIKE RETAIL. TENDS TO AFFECT AREAS LIKE RETAIL. PEOPLE DON'T GO OUT. RETAIL. PEOPLE DON'T GO OUT. RETAIL. PEOPLE DON'T GO OUT. THEY DON'T FLY IN PLANES. PEOPLE DON'T GO OUT. THEY DON'T FLY IN PLANES. PEOPLE DON'T GO OUT. THEY DON'T FLY IN PLANES. THEY DON'T USE TOURISM TO THE THEY DON'T FLY IN PLANES. THEY DON'T USE TOURISM TO THE THEY DON'T FLY IN PLANES. THEY DON'T USE TOURISM TO THE AFFECTED AREAS, SO THAT'S THE THEY DON'T USE TOURISM TO THE AFFECTED AREAS, SO THAT'S THE THEY DON'T USE TOURISM TO THE AFFECTED AREAS, SO THAT'S THE KIND OF THING THAT WE WOULD BE AFFECTED AREAS, SO THAT'S THE KIND OF THING THAT WE WOULD BE AFFECTED AREAS, SO THAT'S THE KIND OF THING THAT WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT IF THIS CURRENT KIND OF THING THAT WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT IF THIS CURRENT KIND OF THING THAT WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT IF THIS CURRENT EPISODE JUST BECOMES MORE LOOKING AT IF THIS CURRENT EPISODE JUST BECOMES MORE LOOKING AT IF THIS CURRENT EPISODE JUST BECOMES MORE PROMINENT IN CANADA AND NORTH EPISODE JUST BECOMES MORE PROMINENT IN CANADA AND NORTH EPISODE JUST BECOMES MORE PROMINENT IN CANADA AND NORTH AMERICA. PROMINENT IN CANADA AND NORTH AMERICA. PROMINENT IN CANADA AND NORTH AMERICA. >> GLORIA? AMERICA. >> GLORIA? AMERICA. >> GLORIA? >> Question: GLORIA GALLOWAY. >> GLORIA? >> Question: GLORIA GALLOWAY. >> GLORIA? >> Question: GLORIA GALLOWAY. WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE WORD >> Question: GLORIA GALLOWAY. WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE WORD >> Question: GLORIA GALLOWAY. WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE WORD "APPROPRIATE" TO DESCRIBE THE WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE WORD "APPROPRIATE" TO DESCRIBE THE WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE WORD "APPROPRIATE" TO DESCRIBE THE KEY RATE, IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT "APPROPRIATE" TO DESCRIBE THE KEY RATE, IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT "APPROPRIATE" TO DESCRIBE THE KEY RATE, IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT THE BANK IS PRIMING MARKETS FOR KEY RATE, IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT THE BANK IS PRIMING MARKETS FOR KEY RATE, IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT THE BANK IS PRIMING MARKETS FOR A RATE CHANGE AND IF SO, DOES THE BANK IS PRIMING MARKETS FOR A RATE CHANGE AND IF SO, DOES THE BANK IS PRIMING MARKETS FOR A RATE CHANGE AND IF SO, DOES KURT ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A RATE A RATE CHANGE AND IF SO, DOES KURT ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A RATE A RATE CHANGE AND IF SO, DOES KURT ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A RATE CHANGE WOULD BE UP OR DOWN GOING KURT ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A RATE CHANGE WOULD BE UP OR DOWN GOING KURT ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A RATE CHANGE WOULD BE UP OR DOWN GOING ON INTO THE FUTURE? CHANGE WOULD BE UP OR DOWN GOING ON INTO THE FUTURE? CHANGE WOULD BE UP OR DOWN GOING ON INTO THE FUTURE? >> WELL, JUST WITH RESPECT TO ON INTO THE FUTURE? >> WELL, JUST WITH RESPECT TO ON INTO THE FUTURE? >> WELL, JUST WITH RESPECT TO YOUR PREMISE, I MEAN, I'VE SAID >> WELL, JUST WITH RESPECT TO YOUR PREMISE, I MEAN, I'VE SAID >> WELL, JUST WITH RESPECT TO YOUR PREMISE, I MEAN, I'VE SAID MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVEN YOUR PREMISE, I MEAN, I'VE SAID MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVEN YOUR PREMISE, I MEAN, I'VE SAID MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVEN YEARS THAT WE TRY TO PRESENT A MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVEN YEARS THAT WE TRY TO PRESENT A MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVEN YEARS THAT WE TRY TO PRESENT A FRESH ANALYSIS EACH TIME WE'RE YEARS THAT WE TRY TO PRESENT A FRESH ANALYSIS EACH TIME WE'RE YEARS THAT WE TRY TO PRESENT A FRESH ANALYSIS EACH TIME WE'RE HERE IN FRONT OF YOU, INCLUDING FRESH ANALYSIS EACH TIME WE'RE HERE IN FRONT OF YOU, INCLUDING FRESH ANALYSIS EACH TIME WE'RE HERE IN FRONT OF YOU, INCLUDING A FRESH PRESS RELEASE, AND THE HERE IN FRONT OF YOU, INCLUDING A FRESH PRESS RELEASE, AND THE HERE IN FRONT OF YOU, INCLUDING A FRESH PRESS RELEASE, AND THE REASON WE DO THAT IS SO THAT A FRESH PRESS RELEASE, AND THE REASON WE DO THAT IS SO THAT A FRESH PRESS RELEASE, AND THE REASON WE DO THAT IS SO THAT INDIVIDUAL WORDS DON'T BECOME SO REASON WE DO THAT IS SO THAT INDIVIDUAL WORDS DON'T BECOME SO INDIVIDUAL WORDS DON'T BECOME SO INDIVIDUAL WORDS DON'T BECOME SO DPE EN SI IS DPE EN SI IS DPE EN SI IS THERE SOMETIMES ANT DPE EN SI IS THERE SOMETIMES ANT DPE EN SI IS THERE SOMETIMES ANT OTHER TIMES, IT DOESN'T MEAN THERE SOMETIMES ANT OTHER TIMES, IT DOESN'T MEAN THERE SOMETIMES ANT OTHER TIMES, IT DOESN'T MEAN SUDDENLY WE'RE NOT DATA OTHER TIMES, IT DOESN'T MEAN SUDDENLY WE'RE NOT DATA OTHER TIMES, IT DOESN'T MEAN SUDDENLY WE'RE NOT DATA DEPENDENT. SUDDENLY WE'RE NOT DATA DEPENDENT. SUDDENLY WE'RE NOT DATA DEPENDENT. WE'RE ALWAYS DATA DEPENDENT. DEPENDENT. WE'RE ALWAYS DATA DEPENDENT. DEPENDENT. WE'RE ALWAYS DATA DEPENDENT. AND "APPROPRIATE", I DARE SAY WE'RE ALWAYS DATA DEPENDENT. AND "APPROPRIATE", I DARE SAY WE'RE ALWAYS DATA DEPENDENT. AND "APPROPRIATE", I DARE SAY THAT INTEREST RATE I WILL STAND AND "APPROPRIATE", I DARE SAY THAT INTEREST RATE I WILL STAND AND "APPROPRIATE", I DARE SAY THAT INTEREST RATE I WILL STAND BY THIS -- THAT THE INTEREST THAT INTEREST RATE I WILL STAND BY THIS -- THAT THE INTEREST THAT INTEREST RATE I WILL STAND BY THIS -- THAT THE INTEREST RATE THAT WE HAVE TODAY REMAINS BY THIS -- THAT THE INTEREST RATE THAT WE HAVE TODAY REMAINS BY THIS -- THAT THE INTEREST RATE THAT WE HAVE TODAY REMAINS APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS RATE THAT WE HAVE TODAY REMAINS APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS RATE THAT WE HAVE TODAY REMAINS APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS TH APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS TH APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS TH EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN'T SAY THAT TH EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN'T SAY THAT TH EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN'T SAY THAT IN THE PRESS RELEASE. EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN'T SAY THAT IN THE PRESS RELEASE. EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN'T SAY THAT IN THE PRESS RELEASE. BUT THE ANALYSIS THAT GOES WITH IN THE PRESS RELEASE. BUT THE ANALYSIS THAT GOES WITH IN THE PRESS RELEASE. BUT THE ANALYSIS THAT GOES WITH THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS BUT THE ANALYSIS THAT GOES WITH THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS BUT THE ANALYSIS THAT GOES WITH THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS EMERGING THERE SOME DOWN SIDE THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS EMERGING THERE SOME DOWN SIDE THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS EMERGING THERE SOME DOWN SIDE RISK TO THE OUTLOOK FOR EMERGING THERE SOME DOWN SIDE RISK TO THE OUTLOOK FOR EMERGING THERE SOME DOWN SIDE RISK TO THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. RISK TO THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. RISK TO THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. THAT'S WHAT ALL THAT TALKS INFLATION. THAT'S WHAT ALL THAT TALKS INFLATION. THAT'S WHAT ALL THAT TALKS ABOUT. THAT'S WHAT ALL THAT TALKS ABOUT. THAT'S WHAT ALL THAT TALKS ABOUT. SO NOT SAYING THAT THE DOOR IS ABOUT. SO NOT SAYING THAT THE DOOR IS ABOUT. SO NOT SAYING THAT THE DOOR IS NOT OPEN TO AN INTEREST RATE SO NOT SAYING THAT THE DOOR IS NOT OPEN TO AN INTEREST RATE SO NOT SAYING THAT THE DOOR IS NOT OPEN TO AN INTEREST RATE CUT. NOT OPEN TO AN INTEREST RATE CUT. NOT OPEN TO AN INTEREST RATE CUT. OBVIOUSLY IT IS. CUT. OBVIOUSLY IT IS. CUT. OBVIOUSLY IT IS. IT IS OPEN. OBVIOUSLY IT IS. IT IS OPEN. OBVIOUSLY IT IS. IT IS OPEN. BUT IT HINGES ON HOW THE DAY IT IS OPEN. BUT IT HINGES ON HOW THE DAY IT IS OPEN. BUT IT HINGES ON HOW THE DAY EVOLVED FROM HERE BECAUSE OUR BUT IT HINGES ON HOW THE DAY EVOLVED FROM HERE BECAUSE OUR BUT IT HINGES ON HOW THE DAY EVOLVED FROM HERE BECAUSE OUR BASE CASE -- WE HAVE A STRONG EVOLVED FROM HERE BECAUSE OUR BASE CASE -- WE HAVE A STRONG EVOLVED FROM HERE BECAUSE OUR BASE CASE -- WE HAVE A STRONG BELIEF THAT THIS WOULD PROVE BASE CASE -- WE HAVE A STRONG BELIEF THAT THIS WOULD PROVE BASE CASE -- WE HAVE A STRONG BELIEF THAT THIS WOULD PROVE TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARY COULD BE BELIEF THAT THIS WOULD PROVE TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARY COULD BE BELIEF THAT THIS WOULD PROVE TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARY COULD BE LONGER OR SHORTER. TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARY COULD BE LONGER OR SHORTER. TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARY COULD BE LONGER OR SHORTER. AND TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S LONGER OR SHORTER. AND TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S LONGER OR SHORTER. AND TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S LONGER, THAT OPENS UP A LARGER AND TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S LONGER, THAT OPENS UP A LARGER AND TO THE EXTENT THAT IT'S LONGER, THAT OPENS UP A LARGER OUTPUT GAP, PUTS MORE DOWNWARD LONGER, THAT OPENS UP A LARGER OUTPUT GAP, PUTS MORE DOWNWARD LONGER, THAT OPENS UP A LARGER OUTPUT GAP, PUTS MORE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION, AND WE OUTPUT GAP, PUTS MORE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION, AND WE OUTPUT GAP, PUTS MORE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION, AND WE WOULD HAVE TO COME BACK TO THAT PRESSURE ON INFLATION, AND WE WOULD HAVE TO COME BACK TO THAT PRESSURE ON INFLATION, AND WE WOULD HAVE TO COME BACK TO THAT DECISION TO DECIDE THEN WHETHER WOULD HAVE TO COME BACK TO THAT DECISION TO DECIDE THEN WHETHER WOULD HAVE TO COME BACK TO THAT DECISION TO DECIDE THEN WHETHER OR NOT INTEREST RATES, AS IT IS DECISION TO DECIDE THEN WHETHER OR NOT INTEREST RATES, AS IT IS DECISION TO DECIDE THEN WHETHER OR NOT INTEREST RATES, AS IT IS TODAY, REMAINS APPROPRIATE. OR NOT INTEREST RATES, AS IT IS TODAY, REMAINS APPROPRIATE. OR NOT INTEREST RATES, AS IT IS TODAY, REMAINS APPROPRIATE. >> DO YOU HAVE A FOLLOW-UP? TODAY, REMAINS APPROPRIATE. >> DO YOU HAVE A FOLLOW-UP? TODAY, REMAINS APPROPRIATE. >> DO YOU HAVE A FOLLOW-UP? KIM? >> DO YOU HAVE A FOLLOW-UP? KIM? >> DO YOU HAVE A FOLLOW-UP? KIM? >> Question: THANKS. KIM? >> Question: THANKS. KIM? >> Question: THANKS. KIM McKRAL. >> Question: THANKS. KIM McKRAL. >> Question: THANKS. KIM McKRAL. >> WHERE ARE YOU, KIM? KIM McKRAL. >> WHERE ARE YOU, KIM? KIM McKRAL. >> WHERE ARE YOU, KIM? THERE YOU ARE. >> WHERE ARE YOU, KIM? THERE YOU ARE. >> WHERE ARE YOU, KIM? THERE YOU ARE. OKAY. THERE YOU ARE. OKAY. THERE YOU ARE. OKAY. YOU'RE BEHIND GREG. OKAY. YOU'RE BEHIND GREG. OKAY. YOU'RE BEHIND GREG. ALL RIGHT. YOU'RE BEHIND GREG. ALL RIGHT. YOU'RE BEHIND GREG. ALL RIGHT. >> Question: CAN YOU JUST SPEAK ALL RIGHT. >> Question: CAN YOU JUST SPEAK ALL RIGHT. >> Question: CAN YOU JUST SPEAK TO, DURING THE DELIBERATIONS >> Question: CAN YOU JUST SPEAK TO, DURING THE DELIBERATIONS >> Question: CAN YOU JUST SPEAK TO, DURING THE DELIBERATIONS WITH GOVERNING COUNCIL, TO WHAT TO, DURING THE DELIBERATIONS WITH GOVERNING COUNCIL, TO WHAT TO, DURING THE DELIBERATIONS WITH GOVERNING COUNCIL, TO WHAT EXTENT WAS THERE -- DID ANYONE WITH GOVERNING COUNCIL, TO WHAT EXTENT WAS THERE -- DID ANYONE WITH GOVERNING COUNCIL, TO WHAT EXTENT WAS THERE -- DID ANYONE OR WAS THERE AN ARGUMENT FOR EXTENT WAS THERE -- DID ANYONE OR WAS THERE AN ARGUMENT FOR EXTENT WAS THERE -- DID ANYONE OR WAS THERE AN ARGUMENT FOR ACTUALLY BRINGING IN AN INTEREST OR WAS THERE AN ARGUMENT FOR ACTUALLY BRINGING IN AN INTEREST OR WAS THERE AN ARGUMENT FOR ACTUALLY BRINGING IN AN INTEREST RATE CUT THIS WEEK? ACTUALLY BRINGING IN AN INTEREST RATE CUT THIS WEEK? ACTUALLY BRINGING IN AN INTEREST RATE CUT THIS WEEK? >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN RATE CUT THIS WEEK? >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN RATE CUT THIS WEEK? >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN BE ANY CLEARER THAN I JUST WAS. >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN BE ANY CLEARER THAN I JUST WAS. >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN BE ANY CLEARER THAN I JUST WAS. AS A TECHNICAL MATTER, ALL THE BE ANY CLEARER THAN I JUST WAS. AS A TECHNICAL MATTER, ALL THE BE ANY CLEARER THAN I JUST WAS. AS A TECHNICAL MATTER, ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR YOU TO AS A TECHNICAL MATTER, ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR YOU TO AS A TECHNICAL MATTER, ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR YOU TO CONSIDER THIS. INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR YOU TO CONSIDER THIS. INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR YOU TO CONSIDER THIS. IT'S INTERESTING TO COMPARE IT CONSIDER THIS. IT'S INTERESTING TO COMPARE IT CONSIDER THIS. IT'S INTERESTING TO COMPARE IT NOW TO, LET'S SAY, OCTOBER ASK, IT'S INTERESTING TO COMPARE IT NOW TO, LET'S SAY, OCTOBER ASK, IT'S INTERESTING TO COMPARE IT NOW TO, LET'S SAY, OCTOBER ASK, WHERE WE DISCUSSED, AND I SAID NOW TO, LET'S SAY, OCTOBER ASK, WHERE WE DISCUSSED, AND I SAID NOW TO, LET'S SAY, OCTOBER ASK, WHERE WE DISCUSSED, AND I SAID HERE THAT WE CONSIDERED WHETHER WHERE WE DISCUSSED, AND I SAID HERE THAT WE CONSIDERED WHETHER WHERE WE DISCUSSED, AND I SAID HERE THAT WE CONSIDERED WHETHER WE SHOULD BE -- WE SHOULD BE HERE THAT WE CONSIDERED WHETHER WE SHOULD BE -- WE SHOULD BE HERE THAT WE CONSIDERED WHETHER WE SHOULD BE -- WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT WE SHOULD BE -- WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT WE SHOULD BE -- WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT IN OCTOBER AND WHAT SENSE WOULD LOOKING AT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT IN OCTOBER AND WHAT SENSE WOULD LOOKING AT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT IN OCTOBER AND WHAT SENSE WOULD IT BE INSURANCE? IN OCTOBER AND WHAT SENSE WOULD IT BE INSURANCE? IN OCTOBER AND WHAT SENSE WOULD IT BE INSURANCE? THAT WOULD BE INSURANCE AGAINST IT BE INSURANCE? THAT WOULD BE INSURANCE AGAINST IT BE INSURANCE? THAT WOULD BE INSURANCE AGAINST A DOWN SIDE RISK THAT, YOU KNOW, THAT WOULD BE INSURANCE AGAINST A DOWN SIDE RISK THAT, YOU KNOW, THAT WOULD BE INSURANCE AGAINST A DOWN SIDE RISK THAT, YOU KNOW, FROM THE OUTSIDE, WHICH WE KNEW A DOWN SIDE RISK THAT, YOU KNOW, FROM THE OUTSIDE, WHICH WE KNEW A DOWN SIDE RISK THAT, YOU KNOW, FROM THE OUTSIDE, WHICH WE KNEW WAS WASHING UP ON OUR SHORES AND FROM THE OUTSIDE, WHICH WE KNEW WAS WASHING UP ON OUR SHORES AND FROM THE OUTSIDE, WHICH WE KNEW WAS WASHING UP ON OUR SHORES AND THE QUESTION IS, HOW BIG WOULD WAS WASHING UP ON OUR SHORES AND THE QUESTION IS, HOW BIG WOULD WAS WASHING UP ON OUR SHORES AND THE QUESTION IS, HOW BIG WOULD IT BE? THE QUESTION IS, HOW BIG WOULD IT BE? THE QUESTION IS, HOW BIG WOULD IT BE? IS ONE. IT BE? IS ONE. IT BE? IS ONE. AND SECONDLY, IF IT WERE OF A IS ONE. AND SECONDLY, IF IT WERE OF A IS ONE. AND SECONDLY, IF IT WERE OF A MAGNITUDE, WOULD IT BE BIG AND SECONDLY, IF IT WERE OF A MAGNITUDE, WOULD IT BE BIG AND SECONDLY, IF IT WERE OF A MAGNITUDE, WOULD IT BE BIG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHER SIDE MAGNITUDE, WOULD IT BE BIG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHER SIDE MAGNITUDE, WOULD IT BE BIG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT RISK EVER INFLATION ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT RISK EVER INFLATION ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT RISK EVER INFLATION WHICH YOU WOULD BE POURING SOME OF THAT RISK EVER INFLATION WHICH YOU WOULD BE POURING SOME OF THAT RISK EVER INFLATION WHICH YOU WOULD BE POURING SOME FUEL ONTO FINANCIAL WHICH YOU WOULD BE POURING SOME FUEL ONTO FINANCIAL FUEL ONTO FINANCIAL FUEL ONTO FINANCIAL VULNERABILIES TO MAKE AN EVEN VULNERABILIES TO MAKE AN EVEN VULNERABILIES TO MAKE AN EVEN HOTTER HOUSING MARKET AND MAKE VULNERABILIES TO MAKE AN EVEN HOTTER HOUSING MARKET AND MAKE VULNERABILIES TO MAKE AN EVEN HOTTER HOUSING MARKET AND MAKE IT HARDER FOR US TO REACH OUR HOTTER HOUSING MARKET AND MAKE IT HARDER FOR US TO REACH OUR HOTTER HOUSING MARKET AND MAKE IT HARDER FOR US TO REACH OUR INFLATION TARGET DOWN THE ROAD. IT HARDER FOR US TO REACH OUR INFLATION TARGET DOWN THE ROAD. IT HARDER FOR US TO REACH OUR INFLATION TARGET DOWN THE ROAD. WE WERE, LIKE, OKAY, NOW WE'RE INFLATION TARGET DOWN THE ROAD. WE WERE, LIKE, OKAY, NOW WE'RE INFLATION TARGET DOWN THE ROAD. WE WERE, LIKE, OKAY, NOW WE'RE ASSESSING HOW BIG THEY ACTUALLY WE WERE, LIKE, OKAY, NOW WE'RE ASSESSING HOW BIG THEY ACTUALLY ASSESSING HOW BIG THEY ACTUALLY ASSESSING HOW BIG THEY ACTUALLY AND WHETHER THEY WILL CONTINUE AND WHETHER THEY WILL CONTINUE AND WHETHER THEY WILL CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER OR LAST LONGER AND WHETHER THEY WILL CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER OR LAST LONGER AND WHETHER THEY WILL CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER OR LAST LONGER THAN WE'RE SUPPOSING. TO GET BIGGER OR LAST LONGER THAN WE'RE SUPPOSING. TO GET BIGGER OR LAST LONGER THAN WE'RE SUPPOSING. SO IN THAT CONTEXT, YOU KNOW, THAN WE'RE SUPPOSING. SO IN THAT CONTEXT, YOU KNOW, THAN WE'RE SUPPOSING. SO IN THAT CONTEXT, YOU KNOW, THE SENSE OF WHETHER WE NEED SO IN THAT CONTEXT, YOU KNOW, THE SENSE OF WHETHER WE NEED SO IN THAT CONTEXT, YOU KNOW, THE SENSE OF WHETHER WE NEED EASIER -- AN EASING OF MONETARY THE SENSE OF WHETHER WE NEED EASIER -- AN EASING OF MONETARY THE SENSE OF WHETHER WE NEED EASIER -- AN EASING OF MONETARY CONDITIONS IS OBVIOUSLY PRESENCE EASIER -- AN EASING OF MONETARY CONDITIONS IS OBVIOUSLY PRESENCE EASIER -- AN EASING OF MONETARY CONDITIONS IS OBVIOUSLY PRESENCE IN THE ANALYSIS BUT THE CONDITIONS IS OBVIOUSLY PRESENCE IN THE ANALYSIS BUT THE CONDITIONS IS OBVIOUSLY PRESENCE IN THE ANALYSIS BUT THE TRADEOFFS ARE NOT AS SIMPLE AS IN THE ANALYSIS BUT THE TRADEOFFS ARE NOT AS SIMPLE AS IN THE ANALYSIS BUT THE TRADEOFFS ARE NOT AS SIMPLE AS IT SOUNDS IN THAT MECHANICAL TRADEOFFS ARE NOT AS SIMPLE AS IT SOUNDS IN THAT MECHANICAL TRADEOFFS ARE NOT AS SIMPLE AS IT SOUNDS IN THAT MECHANICAL WAY. IT SOUNDS IN THAT MECHANICAL WAY. IT SOUNDS IN THAT MECHANICAL WAY. SO AS CAROLYN WAS SUMMARIZING WAY. SO AS CAROLYN WAS SUMMARIZING WAY. SO AS CAROLYN WAS SUMMARIZING BEFORE, THERE ARE THESE SO AS CAROLYN WAS SUMMARIZING BEFORE, THERE ARE THESE SO AS CAROLYN WAS SUMMARIZING BEFORE, THERE ARE THESE COMPETING THINGS AND WE HAVE TO BEFORE, THERE ARE THESE COMPETING THINGS AND WE HAVE TO BEFORE, THERE ARE THESE COMPETING THINGS AND WE HAVE TO HAVE THOSE -- BOTH HORIZONS IN COMPETING THINGS AND WE HAVE TO HAVE THOSE -- BOTH HORIZONS IN COMPETING THINGS AND WE HAVE TO HAVE THOSE -- BOTH HORIZONS IN MIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE CALL IT HAVE THOSE -- BOTH HORIZONS IN MIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE CALL IT HAVE THOSE -- BOTH HORIZONS IN MIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE CALL IT A FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING MIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE CALL IT A FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING MIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE CALL IT A FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING BECAUSE THE HORIZON OVER WHICH A FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING BECAUSE THE HORIZON OVER WHICH A FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING BECAUSE THE HORIZON OVER WHICH WE MAKE SURE THAT INFLATION IS BECAUSE THE HORIZON OVER WHICH WE MAKE SURE THAT INFLATION IS BECAUSE THE HORIZON OVER WHICH WE MAKE SURE THAT INFLATION IS BACK ON TARGET IS SOMETHING THAT WE MAKE SURE THAT INFLATION IS BACK ON TARGET IS SOMETHING THAT WE MAKE SURE THAT INFLATION IS BACK ON TARGET IS SOMETHING THAT WE CAN FLEX OUT OR IN DEPENDING BACK ON TARGET IS SOMETHING THAT WE CAN FLEX OUT OR IN DEPENDING BACK ON TARGET IS SOMETHING THAT WE CAN FLEX OUT OR IN DEPENDING ON CIRCUMSTANCES. WE CAN FLEX OUT OR IN DEPENDING ON CIRCUMSTANCES. WE CAN FLEX OUT OR IN DEPENDING ON CIRCUMSTANCES. AND THE THINGS THAT OFTEN DO ON CIRCUMSTANCES. AND THE THINGS THAT OFTEN DO ON CIRCUMSTANCES. AND THE THINGS THAT OFTEN DO THAT ARE THE FINANCIAL AND THE THINGS THAT OFTEN DO THAT ARE THE FINANCIAL AND THE THINGS THAT OFTEN DO THAT ARE THE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT I'M THAT ARE THE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT I'M THAT ARE THE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT I'M SPEAKING. VULNERABILITIES THAT I'M SPEAKING. VULNERABILITIES THAT I'M SPEAKING. >> Question: GIVEN THAT SOME OF SPEAKING. >> Question: GIVEN THAT SOME OF SPEAKING. >> Question: GIVEN THAT SOME OF THOSE DOWN SIDE RISKS THAT YOU >> Question: GIVEN THAT SOME OF THOSE DOWN SIDE RISKS THAT YOU >> Question: GIVEN THAT SOME OF THOSE DOWN SIDE RISKS THAT YOU DESCRIBED HAVE CRYSTALIZED NOW, THOSE DOWN SIDE RISKS THAT YOU DESCRIBED HAVE CRYSTALIZED NOW, THOSE DOWN SIDE RISKS THAT YOU DESCRIBED HAVE CRYSTALIZED NOW, WE DID SEE A RATE CUT IN THE DESCRIBED HAVE CRYSTALIZED NOW, WE DID SEE A RATE CUT IN THE DESCRIBED HAVE CRYSTALIZED NOW, WE DID SEE A RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE WITH THAT NO LONGER BEING WE DID SEE A RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE WITH THAT NO LONGER BEING WE DID SEE A RATE CUT IN THE FUTURE WITH THAT NO LONGER BEING AN INSURANCE. FUTURE WITH THAT NO LONGER BEING AN INSURANCE. FUTURE WITH THAT NO LONGER BEING AN INSURANCE. THAT WOULD BE A CUT TO DEAL WITH AN INSURANCE. THAT WOULD BE A CUT TO DEAL WITH AN INSURANCE. THAT WOULD BE A CUT TO DEAL WITH THE PRESENT REALITY. THAT WOULD BE A CUT TO DEAL WITH THE PRESENT REALITY. THAT WOULD BE A CUT TO DEAL WITH THE PRESENT REALITY. >> THAT'S RIGHT. THE PRESENT REALITY. >> THAT'S RIGHT. THE PRESENT REALITY. >> THAT'S RIGHT. IT WOULD NOT BE CUT AGAINST A >> THAT'S RIGHT. IT WOULD NOT BE CUT AGAINST A >> THAT'S RIGHT. IT WOULD NOT BE CUT AGAINST A HYPOTHETICAL OR A POSSIBILITY. IT WOULD NOT BE CUT AGAINST A HYPOTHETICAL OR A POSSIBILITY. IT WOULD NOT BE CUT AGAINST A HYPOTHETICAL OR A POSSIBILITY. IT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S HYPOTHETICAL OR A POSSIBILITY. IT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S HYPOTHETICAL OR A POSSIBILITY. IT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALWAYS ADDITIONAL RISK AND IT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALWAYS ADDITIONAL RISK AND IT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALWAYS ADDITIONAL RISK AND CONSIDERATIONS IN NEW FORECASTS. ALWAYS ADDITIONAL RISK AND CONSIDERATIONS IN NEW FORECASTS. ALWAYS ADDITIONAL RISK AND CONSIDERATIONS IN NEW FORECASTS. FOR US A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL. CONSIDERATIONS IN NEW FORECASTS. FOR US A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL. CONSIDERATIONS IN NEW FORECASTS. FOR US A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL. OUR INFLATION TARGET AND AS WE FOR US A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL. OUR INFLATION TARGET AND AS WE FOR US A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL. OUR INFLATION TARGET AND AS WE FELT COMPELLED TO ACT ON IT. OUR INFLATION TARGET AND AS WE FELT COMPELLED TO ACT ON IT. OUR INFLATION TARGET AND AS WE FELT COMPELLED TO ACT ON IT. THAT IS OUR PRIMARY MISSION, OF FELT COMPELLED TO ACT ON IT. THAT IS OUR PRIMARY MISSION, OF FELT COMPELLED TO ACT ON IT. THAT IS OUR PRIMARY MISSION, OF . THAT IS OUR PRIMARY MISSION, OF . THAT IS OUR PRIMARY MISSION, OF . >> BILL? . >> BILL? . >> BILL? >> Question: ON ISSUE OF >> BILL? >> Question: ON ISSUE OF >> BILL? >> Question: ON ISSUE OF HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES AND >> Question: ON ISSUE OF HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES AND >> Question: ON ISSUE OF HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES AND THE HOUSING MARKETS, THE HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES AND THE HOUSING MARKETS, THE HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITIES AND THE HOUSING MARKETS, THE GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING THE THE HOUSING MARKETS, THE GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING THE THE HOUSING MARKETS, THE GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING THE TERMS OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING THE TERMS OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING THE TERMS OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS TEST AND I'M CURIOUS IF EITHER TERMS OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS TEST AND I'M CURIOUS IF EITHER TERMS OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS TEST AND I'M CURIOUS IF EITHER OF YOU WOULD WEIGH IN ON YOUR TEST AND I'M CURIOUS IF EITHER OF YOU WOULD WEIGH IN ON YOUR TEST AND I'M CURIOUS IF EITHER OF YOU WOULD WEIGH IN ON YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF OF YOU WOULD WEIGH IN ON YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF OF YOU WOULD WEIGH IN ON YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT POLICY IN RECENT YEARS THAT THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT POLICY IN RECENT YEARS THAT THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT POLICY IN RECENT YEARS THAT ADDRESSING SOME OF THE CONCERNS THAT POLICY IN RECENT YEARS THAT ADDRESSING SOME OF THE CONCERNS THAT POLICY IN RECENT YEARS THAT ADDRESSING SOME OF THE CONCERNS ABOUT RISK AND INDEBTEDNESS ADDRESSING SOME OF THE CONCERNS ABOUT RISK AND INDEBTEDNESS ADDRESSING SOME OF THE CONCERNS ABOUT RISK AND INDEBTEDNESS YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT AND IF THE ABOUT RISK AND INDEBTEDNESS YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT AND IF THE ABOUT RISK AND INDEBTEDNESS YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT AND IF THE TERMS OF THE PROGRAM WERE TO BE YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT AND IF THE TERMS OF THE PROGRAM WERE TO BE TERMS OF THE PROGRAM WERE TO BE TERMS OF THE PROGRAM WERE TO BE LOOSENED, DO Y FORESEE MORE LOOSENED, DO Y FORESEE MORE LOOSENED, DO Y FORESEE MORE RI I ARE Y'VE BEEN LOOSENED, DO Y FORESEE MORE RI I ARE Y'VE BEEN LOOSENED, DO Y FORESEE MORE RI I ARE Y'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT? RI I ARE Y'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT? RI I ARE Y'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT? >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. TALKING ABOUT? >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. TALKING ABOUT? >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. >> SO WE'VE BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. >> SO WE'VE BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT >> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. >> SO WE'VE BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT WE THINK THAT THE STRESS TEST >> SO WE'VE BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT WE THINK THAT THE STRESS TEST >> SO WE'VE BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT WE THINK THAT THE STRESS TEST HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF WE THINK THAT THE STRESS TEST HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF WE THINK THAT THE STRESS TEST HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF SAFEGUARDING THE SYSTEM AND HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF SAFEGUARDING THE SYSTEM AND HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF SAFEGUARDING THE SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY SAFEGUARDING SAFEGUARDING THE SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY SAFEGUARDING SAFEGUARDING THE SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY SAFEGUARDING INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE TAKING ON ACTUALLY SAFEGUARDING INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE TAKING ON ACTUALLY SAFEGUARDING INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE TAKING ON MORTGAGES SO THAT THEY CAN BE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE TAKING ON MORTGAGES SO THAT THEY CAN BE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE TAKING ON MORTGAGES SO THAT THEY CAN BE MORE CONFIDENT THAN THEY'LL BE MORTGAGES SO THAT THEY CAN BE MORE CONFIDENT THAN THEY'LL BE MORTGAGES SO THAT THEY CAN BE MORE CONFIDENT THAN THEY'LL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE MORTGAGE OVER MORE CONFIDENT THAN THEY'LL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE MORTGAGE OVER MORE CONFIDENT THAN THEY'LL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE MORTGAGE OVER THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE. ABLE TO HANDLE THE MORTGAGE OVER THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE. ABLE TO HANDLE THE MORTGAGE OVER THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE. AND SO -- SO THAT'S THE FIRST THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE. AND SO -- SO THAT'S THE FIRST THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE. AND SO -- SO THAT'S THE FIRST POINT. AND SO -- SO THAT'S THE FIRST POINT. AND SO -- SO THAT'S THE FIRST POINT. WITH RESPECT TO ANY PARTICULAR POINT. WITH RESPECT TO ANY PARTICULAR POINT. WITH RESPECT TO ANY PARTICULAR CHANGES, THE MANDATE HERE ISN'T WITH RESPECT TO ANY PARTICULAR CHANGES, THE MANDATE HERE ISN'T WITH RESPECT TO ANY PARTICULAR CHANGES, THE MANDATE HERE ISN'T NECESSARILY TO LOOSEN IT. CHANGES, THE MANDATE HERE ISN'T NECESSARILY TO LOOSEN IT. CHANGES, THE MANDATE HERE ISN'T NECESSARILY TO LOOSEN IT. IT'S JUST TO MAKE IT MORE KIND NECESSARILY TO LOOSEN IT. IT'S JUST TO MAKE IT MORE KIND NECESSARILY TO LOOSEN IT. IT'S JUST TO MAKE IT MORE KIND DYNAMIC WITH RESPECT TO HOW IT'S JUST TO MAKE IT MORE KIND DYNAMIC WITH RESPECT TO HOW IT'S JUST TO MAKE IT MORE KIND DYNAMIC WITH RESPECT TO HOW INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE RATES, DYNAMIC WITH RESPECT TO HOW INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE RATES, DYNAMIC WITH RESPECT TO HOW INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE RATES, ACTUALLY CHANGE. INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE RATES, ACTUALLY CHANGE. INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE RATES, ACTUALLY CHANGE. WHEN THE STRESS TEST WAS BROUGHT ACTUALLY CHANGE. WHEN THE STRESS TEST WAS BROUGHT ACTUALLY CHANGE. WHEN THE STRESS TEST WAS BROUGHT IN, IT WAS BRAND NEW. WHEN THE STRESS TEST WAS BROUGHT IN, IT WAS BRAND NEW. WHEN THE STRESS TEST WAS BROUGHT IN, IT WAS BRAND NEW. IT WAS PUT IN A TIME WHEN IN, IT WAS BRAND NEW. IT WAS PUT IN A TIME WHEN IN, IT WAS BRAND NEW. IT WAS PUT IN A TIME WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY LOW. IT WAS PUT IN A TIME WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY LOW. IT WAS PUT IN A TIME WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY LOW. AND ANYBODY WHO'S DOING -- BEEN INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY LOW. AND ANYBODY WHO'S DOING -- BEEN INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY LOW. AND ANYBODY WHO'S DOING -- BEEN DOING FINANCIAL REGULATION LONG AND ANYBODY WHO'S DOING -- BEEN DOING FINANCIAL REGULATION LONG AND ANYBODY WHO'S DOING -- BEEN DOING FINANCIAL REGULATION LONG ENOUGH KNOWS THAT AS YOU SEE DOING FINANCIAL REGULATION LONG ENOUGH KNOWS THAT AS YOU SEE DOING FINANCIAL REGULATION LONG ENOUGH KNOWS THAT AS YOU SEE THESE THINGS AT PLAY, YOU ENOUGH KNOWS THAT AS YOU SEE THESE THINGS AT PLAY, YOU ENOUGH KNOWS THAT AS YOU SEE THESE THINGS AT PLAY, YOU REALIZE THAT MAYBE THERE ARE THESE THINGS AT PLAY, YOU REALIZE THAT MAYBE THERE ARE THESE THINGS AT PLAY, YOU REALIZE THAT MAYBE THERE ARE SOME DESIRABLE TWEAKS THAT COULD REALIZE THAT MAYBE THERE ARE SOME DESIRABLE TWEAKS THAT COULD REALIZE THAT MAYBE THERE ARE SOME DESIRABLE TWEAKS THAT COULD BE MADE. SOME DESIRABLE TWEAKS THAT COULD BE MADE. SOME DESIRABLE TWEAKS THAT COULD BE MADE. WITH RESPECT TO WHAT AFFECT ANY BE MADE. WITH RESPECT TO WHAT AFFECT ANY BE MADE. WITH RESPECT TO WHAT AFFECT ANY TWEAK MIGHT HAVE, IT JUST WITH RESPECT TO WHAT AFFECT ANY TWEAK MIGHT HAVE, IT JUST WITH RESPECT TO WHAT AFFECT ANY TWEAK MIGHT HAVE, IT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW IT'S REDESIGNED TWEAK MIGHT HAVE, IT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW IT'S REDESIGNED TWEAK MIGHT HAVE, IT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW IT'S REDESIGNED AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT YET SO DEPENDS ON HOW IT'S REDESIGNED AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT YET SO DEPENDS ON HOW IT'S REDESIGNED AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT YET SO WHAT BANK WILL DO IS TAKE LOOK AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT YET SO WHAT BANK WILL DO IS TAKE LOOK AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT YET SO WHAT BANK WILL DO IS TAKE LOOK AT IT WHEN IT HAPPENS AND LIKE WHAT BANK WILL DO IS TAKE LOOK AT IT WHEN IT HAPPENS AND LIKE WHAT BANK WILL DO IS TAKE LOOK AT IT WHEN IT HAPPENS AND LIKE WE DID IN THE PAST, TRY TO GET AT IT WHEN IT HAPPENS AND LIKE WE DID IN THE PAST, TRY TO GET AT IT WHEN IT HAPPENS AND LIKE WE DID IN THE PAST, TRY TO GET BALLPARK ESTIMATES WHAT THAT WE DID IN THE PAST, TRY TO GET BALLPARK ESTIMATES WHAT THAT WE DID IN THE PAST, TRY TO GET BALLPARK ESTIMATES WHAT THAT ACTUALLY MEANS FOR HOW IT MIGHT BALLPARK ESTIMATES WHAT THAT ACTUALLY MEANS FOR HOW IT MIGHT BALLPARK ESTIMATES WHAT THAT ACTUALLY MEANS FOR HOW IT MIGHT CHANGE THE ACCESSIBILITY OF ACTUALLY MEANS FOR HOW IT MIGHT CHANGE THE ACCESSIBILITY OF ACTUALLY MEANS FOR HOW IT MIGHT CHANGE THE ACCESSIBILITY OF MORTGAGES AND WHAT THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE ACCESSIBILITY OF MORTGAGES AND WHAT THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE ACCESSIBILITY OF MORTGAGES AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET. MORTGAGES AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET. MORTGAGES AND WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET. >> ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET. >> ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET. >> ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? GOT TIME FOR ONE QUICK ONE. >> ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? GOT TIME FOR ONE QUICK ONE. >> ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? GOT TIME FOR ONE QUICK ONE. NOPE. GOT TIME FOR ONE QUICK ONE. NOPE. GOT TIME FOR ONE QUICK ONE. NOPE. THAT CONCLUDES THIS NEWS NOPE. THAT CONCLUDES THIS NEWS NOPE. THAT CONCLUDES THIS NEWS CONFERENCE. THAT CONCLUDES THIS NEWS CONFERENCE. THAT CONCLUDES THIS NEWS CONFERENCE. THANK YOU, GOVERNOR. CONFERENCE. THANK YOU, GOVERNOR. CONFERENCE. THANK YOU, GOVERNOR. THANK YOU -- OH. THANK YOU, GOVERNOR. THANK YOU -- OH. THANK YOU, GOVERNOR. THANK YOU -- OH. SORRY.OKA THANK YOU -- OH. SORRY.OKA THANK YOU -- OH. SORRY.OKA BLOOMBERG. SORRY.OKA BLOOMBERG. SORRY.OKA BLOOMBERG. >> Question: GOOD MORNING, THIS BLOOMBERG. >> Question: GOOD MORNING, THIS BLOOMBERG. >> Question: GOOD MORNING, THIS IS SHELLY HAGAN WITH BLOOMBERG >> Question: GOOD MORNING, THIS IS SHELLY HAGAN WITH BLOOMBERG >> Question: GOOD MORNING, THIS IS SHELLY HAGAN WITH BLOOMBERG NEWS. IS SHELLY HAGAN WITH BLOOMBERG NEWS. IS SHELLY HAGAN WITH BLOOMBERG NEWS. BASED ON YOUR FORECAST, IS IT NEWS. BASED ON YOUR FORECAST, IS IT NEWS. BASED ON YOUR FORECAST, IS IT FAIR TO SAY TO CARRY EXCESS BASED ON YOUR FORECAST, IS IT FAIR TO SAY TO CARRY EXCESS BASED ON YOUR FORECAST, IS IT FAIR TO SAY TO CARRY EXCESS CAPACITY THROUGHOUT THE FAIR TO SAY TO CARRY EXCESS CAPACITY THROUGHOUT THE FAIR TO SAY TO CARRY EXCESS CAPACITY THROUGHOUT THE PROJECTION HORIZON? CAPACITY THROUGHOUT THE PROJECTION HORIZON? CAPACITY THROUGHOUT THE PROJECTION HORIZON? >> IT'S SHOWN IN CHART 15 AS I PROJECTION HORIZON? >> IT'S SHOWN IN CHART 15 AS I PROJECTION HORIZON? >> IT'S SHOWN IN CHART 15 AS I MENTIONED IN MY OPENING REMARKS. >> IT'S SHOWN IN CHART 15 AS I MENTIONED IN MY OPENING REMARKS. >> IT'S SHOWN IN CHART 15 AS I MENTIONED IN MY OPENING REMARKS. A MODEST AMOUNT BUT IT'S MENTIONED IN MY OPENING REMARKS. A MODEST AMOUNT BUT IT'S MENTIONED IN MY OPENING REMARKS. A MODEST AMOUNT BUT IT'S PRESENT. A MODEST AMOUNT BUT IT'S PRESENT. A MODEST AMOUNT BUT IT'S PRESENT. YES. PRESENT. YES. PRESENT. YES. >> OKAY. YES. >> OKAY. YES. >> OKAY. GREG BONNELL. >> OKAY. GREG BONNELL. >> OKAY. GREG BONNELL. >> OKAY. GREG BONNELL. >> OKAY. GREG BONNELL. >> OKAY. >> Question: I THOUGHT I WAS ON >> OKAY. >> Question: I THOUGHT I WAS ON >> OKAY. >> Question: I THOUGHT I WAS ON THE LIST. >> Question: I THOUGHT I WAS ON THE LIST. >> Question: I THOUGHT I WAS ON THE LIST. I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, THE THE LIST. I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, THE THE LIST. I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, THE ECONOMISTS I SPEAK WITH, THEY I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, THE ECONOMISTS I SPEAK WITH, THEY I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, THE ECONOMISTS I SPEAK WITH, THEY CAN'T AGREE WHETHER YOUR PURE ECONOMISTS I SPEAK WITH, THEY CAN'T AGREE WHETHER YOUR PURE ECONOMISTS I SPEAK WITH, THEY CAN'T AGREE WHETHER YOUR PURE MANDATE WILL JUST BE INFLATION CAN'T AGREE WHETHER YOUR PURE MANDATE WILL JUST BE INFLATION CAN'T AGREE WHETHER YOUR PURE MANDATE WILL JUST BE INFLATION AND THAT HOUSEHOLD RISK WILL BE MANDATE WILL JUST BE INFLATION AND THAT HOUSEHOLD RISK WILL BE MANDATE WILL JUST BE INFLATION AND THAT HOUSEHOLD RISK WILL BE THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM BUT AND THAT HOUSEHOLD RISK WILL BE THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM BUT AND THAT HOUSEHOLD RISK WILL BE THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM BUT FROM THIS STATEMENT, IT SEEMS THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM BUT FROM THIS STATEMENT, IT SEEMS THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM BUT FROM THIS STATEMENT, IT SEEMS LIKE IT'S NO THE NOT THE FROM THIS STATEMENT, IT SEEMS LIKE IT'S NO THE NOT THE FROM THIS STATEMENT, IT SEEMS LIKE IT'S NO THE NOT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. LIKE IT'S NO THE NOT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. LIKE IT'S NO THE NOT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. IT HAD A SEAT AT THE TABLE. ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. IT HAD A SEAT AT THE TABLE. ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. IT HAD A SEAT AT THE TABLE. ARE WE, AFTER A DECADE OF IT HAD A SEAT AT THE TABLE. ARE WE, AFTER A DECADE OF IT HAD A SEAT AT THE TABLE. ARE WE, AFTER A DECADE OF INDEBTEDNESS, AT A PLACE WHERE ARE WE, AFTER A DECADE OF INDEBTEDNESS, AT A PLACE WHERE ARE WE, AFTER A DECADE OF INDEBTEDNESS, AT A PLACE WHERE WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL DUAL INDEBTEDNESS, AT A PLACE WHERE WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL DUAL INDEBTEDNESS, AT A PLACE WHERE WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL DUAL MANDATE, INFLATION HERE, WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL DUAL MANDATE, INFLATION HERE, WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL DUAL MANDATE, INFLATION HERE, HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND RISK ON THE MANDATE, INFLATION HERE, HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND RISK ON THE MANDATE, INFLATION HERE, HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND RISK ON THE OTHER SIDE? HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND RISK ON THE OTHER SIDE? HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND RISK ON THE OTHER SIDE? >> I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T OTHER SIDE? >> I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T OTHER SIDE? >> I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T CHARACTERIZE IT AS YOU JUST >> I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T CHARACTERIZE IT AS YOU JUST >> I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T CHARACTERIZE IT AS YOU JUST HAVE. CHARACTERIZE IT AS YOU JUST HAVE. CHARACTERIZE IT AS YOU JUST HAVE. CERTAINLY NOT A DUAL MANDATE. HAVE. CERTAINLY NOT A DUAL MANDATE. HAVE. CERTAINLY NOT A DUAL MANDATE. I JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO CERTAINLY NOT A DUAL MANDATE. I JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO CERTAINLY NOT A DUAL MANDATE. I JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO WHEN OUR PRIMARY MISSION IS AND I JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO WHEN OUR PRIMARY MISSION IS AND I JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO WHEN OUR PRIMARY MISSION IS AND THAT HAS NOT CHANGED. WHEN OUR PRIMARY MISSION IS AND THAT HAS NOT CHANGED. WHEN OUR PRIMARY MISSION IS AND THAT HAS NOT CHANGED. HOWEVER, AS WE'VE COVERED A THAT HAS NOT CHANGED. HOWEVER, AS WE'VE COVERED A THAT HAS NOT CHANGED. HOWEVER, AS WE'VE COVERED A COUPLE OF TIMES ELEVATED HOWEVER, AS WE'VE COVERED A COUPLE OF TIMES ELEVATED HOWEVER, AS WE'VE COVERED A COUPLE OF TIMES ELEVATED VULNERABILITIES, WHY WE CALL COUPLE OF TIMES ELEVATED VULNERABILITIES, WHY WE CALL COUPLE OF TIMES ELEVATED VULNERABILITIES, WHY WE CALL THEM VULNERABILITY AS OPPOSED TO VULNERABILITIES, WHY WE CALL THEM VULNERABILITY AS OPPOSED TO VULNERABILITIES, WHY WE CALL THEM VULNERABILITY AS OPPOSED TO RISK. THEM VULNERABILITY AS OPPOSED TO RISK. THEM VULNERABILITY AS OPPOSED TO RISK. IT'S LIKE A CRACK IN YOUR TREE RISK. IT'S LIKE A CRACK IN YOUR TREE RISK. IT'S LIKE A CRACK IN YOUR TREE AND EVERYTHING IS OKAY UNTIL A IT'S LIKE A CRACK IN YOUR TREE AND EVERYTHING IS OKAY UNTIL A IT'S LIKE A CRACK IN YOUR TREE AND EVERYTHING IS OKAY UNTIL A BAD STORM COMES. AND EVERYTHING IS OKAY UNTIL A BAD STORM COMES. AND EVERYTHING IS OKAY UNTIL A BAD STORM COMES. WHAT THAT MEANS THEN IS IF THERE BAD STORM COMES. WHAT THAT MEANS THEN IS IF THERE BAD STORM COMES. WHAT THAT MEANS THEN IS IF THERE IS A DOWNSIDE SHOCK TO THE WHAT THAT MEANS THEN IS IF THERE IS A DOWNSIDE SHOCK TO THE WHAT THAT MEANS THEN IS IF THERE IS A DOWNSIDE SHOCK TO THE ECONOMY LIKE -- IT DOESN'T IS A DOWNSIDE SHOCK TO THE ECONOMY LIKE -- IT DOESN'T IS A DOWNSIDE SHOCK TO THE ECONOMY LIKE -- IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT IT IS. ECONOMY LIKE -- IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT IT IS. ECONOMY LIKE -- IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT IT IS. BUT IT COMES FROM OUTSIDE MATTER WHAT IT IS. BUT IT COMES FROM OUTSIDE MATTER WHAT IT IS. BUT IT COMES FROM OUTSIDE USUALLY AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS, BUT IT COMES FROM OUTSIDE USUALLY AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS, BUT IT COMES FROM OUTSIDE USUALLY AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS, THE EFFECT OF THAT SHOCK ON THE USUALLY AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS, THE EFFECT OF THAT SHOCK ON THE USUALLY AND THE ECONOMY SLOWS, THE EFFECT OF THAT SHOCK ON THE ECONOMY IS MAGNIFIED BECAUSE OF THE EFFECT OF THAT SHOCK ON THE ECONOMY IS MAGNIFIED BECAUSE OF THE EFFECT OF THAT SHOCK ON THE ECONOMY IS MAGNIFIED BECAUSE OF THOSE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES. ECONOMY IS MAGNIFIED BECAUSE OF THOSE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES. ECONOMY IS MAGNIFIED BECAUSE OF THOSE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES. SO FOR A GIVEN SHOCK, YOU HAVE A THOSE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES. SO FOR A GIVEN SHOCK, YOU HAVE A THOSE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES. SO FOR A GIVEN SHOCK, YOU HAVE A MUCH BIGGER DEVIATION FROM YOUR SO FOR A GIVEN SHOCK, YOU HAVE A MUCH BIGGER DEVIATION FROM YOUR SO FOR A GIVEN SHOCK, YOU HAVE A MUCH BIGGER DEVIATION FROM YOUR INFLATION TARGET AND MUCH HARDER MUCH BIGGER DEVIATION FROM YOUR INFLATION TARGET AND MUCH HARDER MUCH BIGGER DEVIATION FROM YOUR INFLATION TARGET AND MUCH HARDER JOB GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON INFLATION TARGET AND MUCH HARDER JOB GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON INFLATION TARGET AND MUCH HARDER JOB GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK TO KEEP INFLATION ON JOB GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK TO KEEP INFLATION ON JOB GETTING THE ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET OR GET IT BACK TO TARGET. TRACK TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET OR GET IT BACK TO TARGET. TRACK TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET OR GET IT BACK TO TARGET. SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IN A TARGET OR GET IT BACK TO TARGET. SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IN A TARGET OR GET IT BACK TO TARGET. SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IN A TIME SENSE, RIGHT, THAT DECISION SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IN A TIME SENSE, RIGHT, THAT DECISION SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IN A TIME SENSE, RIGHT, THAT DECISION ABOUT WHETHER YOU NEED TO KEEP TIME SENSE, RIGHT, THAT DECISION ABOUT WHETHER YOU NEED TO KEEP TIME SENSE, RIGHT, THAT DECISION ABOUT WHETHER YOU NEED TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET EVERY MINUTE ABOUT WHETHER YOU NEED TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET EVERY MINUTE ABOUT WHETHER YOU NEED TO KEEP INFLATION ON TARGET EVERY MINUTE OR EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS INFLATION ON TARGET EVERY MINUTE OR EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS INFLATION ON TARGET EVERY MINUTE OR EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS MATTERS QUITE A LOT, RIGHT. OR EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS MATTERS QUITE A LOT, RIGHT. OR EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS MATTERS QUITE A LOT, RIGHT. SO IF YOU TRY TO DO IT REALLY MATTERS QUITE A LOT, RIGHT. SO IF YOU TRY TO DO IT REALLY MATTERS QUITE A LOT, RIGHT. SO IF YOU TRY TO DO IT REALLY RAPIDLY, YOU MAY BE CREATING SO IF YOU TRY TO DO IT REALLY RAPIDLY, YOU MAY BE CREATING SO IF YOU TRY TO DO IT REALLY RAPIDLY, YOU MAY BE CREATING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT RAPIDLY, YOU MAY BE CREATING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT RAPIDLY, YOU MAY BE CREATING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT YOU WOULD REGRET LATER SO YOU FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT YOU WOULD REGRET LATER SO YOU FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES THAT YOU WOULD REGRET LATER SO YOU NEED TO BE MINDFUL THAT THERE YOU WOULD REGRET LATER SO YOU NEED TO BE MINDFUL THAT THERE YOU WOULD REGRET LATER SO YOU NEED TO BE MINDFUL THAT THERE ARE TRADE-OFFS THROUGH TIME AND NEED TO BE MINDFUL THAT THERE ARE TRADE-OFFS THROUGH TIME AND NEED TO BE MINDFUL THAT THERE ARE TRADE-OFFS THROUGH TIME AND THEY MATTER TO THE INFLATION ARE TRADE-OFFS THROUGH TIME AND THEY MATTER TO THE INFLATION ARE TRADE-OFFS THROUGH TIME AND THEY MATTER TO THE INFLATION TARGETING RESPONSIBILITY. THEY MATTER TO THE INFLATION TARGETING RESPONSIBILITY. THEY MATTER TO THE INFLATION TARGETING RESPONSIBILITY. SO IT ALL DIS'TILS DOWN TO TARGETING RESPONSIBILITY. SO IT ALL DIS'TILS DOWN TO TARGETING RESPONSIBILITY. SO IT ALL DIS'TILS DOWN TO INFLATION MANDATE. SO IT ALL DIS'TILS DOWN TO INFLATION MANDATE. SO IT ALL DIS'TILS DOWN TO INFLATION MANDATE. I THINK WE'RE REACHING A MUCH INFLATION MANDATE. I THINK WE'RE REACHING A MUCH INFLATION MANDATE. I THINK WE'RE REACHING A MUCH MORE, LET'S SAY, RIGOROUS I THINK WE'RE REACHING A MUCH MORE, LET'S SAY, RIGOROUS I THINK WE'RE REACHING A MUCH MORE, LET'S SAY, RIGOROUS UNDERSTANDING OF HOI FINANCIAL MORE, LET'S SAY, RIGOROUS UNDERSTANDING OF HOI FINANCIAL MORE, LET'S SAY, RIGOROUS UNDERSTANDING OF HOI FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES FIGURE INTO THAT UNDERSTANDING OF HOI FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES FIGURE INTO THAT UNDERSTANDING OF HOI FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES FIGURE INTO THAT TRAPS MISSION MECHANISM AND HOW VULNERABILITIES FIGURE INTO THAT TRAPS MISSION MECHANISM AND HOW VULNERABILITIES FIGURE INTO THAT TRAPS MISSION MECHANISM AND HOW IT REACTS WITH POLICY. TRAPS MISSION MECHANISM AND HOW IT REACTS WITH POLICY. TRAPS MISSION MECHANISM AND HOW IT REACTS WITH POLICY. SO, YEAH, I'VE -- SINCE 2013, IT REACTS WITH POLICY. SO, YEAH, I'VE -- SINCE 2013, IT REACTS WITH POLICY. SO, YEAH, I'VE -- SINCE 2013, WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS -- SO, YEAH, I'VE -- SINCE 2013, WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS -- SO, YEAH, I'VE -- SINCE 2013, WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS -- YOU KNOW, WHAT THESE TRADEOFFS WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS -- YOU KNOW, WHAT THESE TRADEOFFS WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS -- YOU KNOW, WHAT THESE TRADEOFFS LOOK LIKE. YOU KNOW, WHAT THESE TRADEOFFS LOOK LIKE. YOU KNOW, WHAT THESE TRADEOFFS LOOK LIKE. OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT HIGH LOOK LIKE. OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT HIGH LOOK LIKE. OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT HIGH FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT HIGH FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL OBVIOUSLY WE'VE GOT HIGH FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL THIS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL THIS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL THIS AND IN SOME WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN THIS AND IN SOME WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN THIS AND IN SOME WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN WORSE AND IN OTHER WAYS, THEY'VE AND IN SOME WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN WORSE AND IN OTHER WAYS, THEY'VE AND IN SOME WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN WORSE AND IN OTHER WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN BETTER, BECAUSE WE'VE GOT WORSE AND IN OTHER WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN BETTER, BECAUSE WE'VE GOT WORSE AND IN OTHER WAYS, THEY'VE GOTTEN BETTER, BECAUSE WE'VE GOT B TO AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHICH GOTTEN BETTER, BECAUSE WE'VE GOT B TO AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHICH GOTTEN BETTER, BECAUSE WE'VE GOT B TO AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHICH TAKE THAT TRADEOFF AND SHIFT IT B TO AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHICH TAKE THAT TRADEOFF AND SHIFT IT B TO AND THINGS LIKE THAT WHICH TAKE THAT TRADEOFF AND SHIFT IT BACK TOWARDS, OKAY, NOW IT'S NOT TAKE THAT TRADEOFF AND SHIFT IT BACK TOWARDS, OKAY, NOW IT'S NOT TAKE THAT TRADEOFF AND SHIFT IT BACK TOWARDS, OKAY, NOW IT'S NOT AS THREATENING. BACK TOWARDS, OKAY, NOW IT'S NOT AS THREATENING. BACK TOWARDS, OKAY, NOW IT'S NOT AS THREATENING. SO THOSE THINGS MATTER QUITE A AS THREATENING. SO THOSE THINGS MATTER QUITE A AS THREATENING. SO THOSE THINGS MATTER QUITE A LOT TO THAT CALCULUS. SO THOSE THINGS MATTER QUITE A LOT TO THAT CALCULUS. SO THOSE THINGS MATTER QUITE A LOT TO THAT CALCULUS. SO YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY COMPARE LOT TO THAT CALCULUS. SO YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY COMPARE LOT TO THAT CALCULUS. SO YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY COMPARE TODAY TO, SAY, FIVE YEARS AGO, SO YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY COMPARE TODAY TO, SAY, FIVE YEARS AGO, SO YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY COMPARE TODAY TO, SAY, FIVE YEARS AGO, BECAUSE IN BETWEEN WE'VE HAD TODAY TO, SAY, FIVE YEARS AGO, BECAUSE IN BETWEEN WE'VE HAD TODAY TO, SAY, FIVE YEARS AGO, BECAUSE IN BETWEEN WE'VE HAD SOME REALLY GOOD MACRO BECAUSE IN BETWEEN WE'VE HAD SOME REALLY GOOD MACRO BECAUSE IN BETWEEN WE'VE HAD SOME REALLY GOOD MACRO CREDENTIAL MOVES THAT REDUCE SOME REALLY GOOD MACRO CREDENTIAL MOVES THAT REDUCE SOME REALLY GOOD MACRO CREDENTIAL MOVES THAT REDUCE RISKS OF FINANCIAL CREDENTIAL MOVES THAT REDUCE RISKS OF FINANCIAL CREDENTIAL MOVES THAT REDUCE RISKS OF FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ERUPTING INTO A RISKS OF FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ERUPTING INTO A RISKS OF FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES ERUPTING INTO A MAJOR PROBLEM. VULNERABILITIES ERUPTING INTO A MAJOR PROBLEM. VULNERABILITIES ERUPTING INTO A MAJOR PROBLEM. >> Question: JUST QUICKLY, AT MAJOR PROBLEM. >> Question: JUST QUICKLY, AT MAJOR PROBLEM. >> Question: JUST QUICKLY, AT THE BEGINNING, WE MENTIONED BACK >> Question: JUST QUICKLY, AT THE BEGINNING, WE MENTIONED BACK >> Question: JUST QUICKLY, AT THE BEGINNING, WE MENTIONED BACK IN 2013, WHEN YOU GOT THE JOB, THE BEGINNING, WE MENTIONED BACK IN 2013, WHEN YOU GOT THE JOB, THE BEGINNING, WE MENTIONED BACK IN 2013, WHEN YOU GOT THE JOB, THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU IN 2013, WHEN YOU GOT THE JOB, THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU IN 2013, WHEN YOU GOT THE JOB, THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU WERE WAITING FOR THAT HANDOFF THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU WERE WAITING FOR THAT HANDOFF THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU WERE WAITING FOR THAT HANDOFF FROM THE CONSUMER TO THE WERE WAITING FOR THAT HANDOFF FROM THE CONSUMER TO THE WERE WAITING FOR THAT HANDOFF FROM THE CONSUMER TO THE EXPORTERS TO MANUFACTURERS, FROM THE CONSUMER TO THE EXPORTERS TO MANUFACTURERS, FROM THE CONSUMER TO THE EXPORTERS TO MANUFACTURERS, OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SIDELINED A EXPORTERS TO MANUFACTURERS, OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SIDELINED A EXPORTERS TO MANUFACTURERS, OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SIDELINED A NUMBER OF TIMES. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SIDELINED A NUMBER OF TIMES. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SIDELINED A NUMBER OF TIMES. BUT HOPE SEEMS TO BE BACK HERE NUMBER OF TIMES. BUT HOPE SEEMS TO BE BACK HERE NUMBER OF TIMES. BUT HOPE SEEMS TO BE BACK HERE BY 2021, EXPORTS WILL BE DOUBLE BUT HOPE SEEMS TO BE BACK HERE BY 2021, EXPORTS WILL BE DOUBLE BUT HOPE SEEMS TO BE BACK HERE BY 2021, EXPORTS WILL BE DOUBLE THEIR CONTRIBUTION. BY 2021, EXPORTS WILL BE DOUBLE THEIR CONTRIBUTION. BY 2021, EXPORTS WILL BE DOUBLE THEIR CONTRIBUTION. IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT -- IS THEIR CONTRIBUTION. IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT -- IS THEIR CONTRIBUTION. IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT -- IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOING IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT -- IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOING IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT -- IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOING ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE PRIVATE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOING ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE PRIVATE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOING ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO ENTICE THE EXPORTERS, ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO ENTICE THE EXPORTERS, ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO ENTICE THE EXPORTERS, THE MANUFACTURERS? SECTOR TO ENTICE THE EXPORTERS, THE MANUFACTURERS? SECTOR TO ENTICE THE EXPORTERS, THE MANUFACTURERS? >> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID THE MANUFACTURERS? >> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID THE MANUFACTURERS? >> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID BEFORE THAT LIFE WOULD OF LOOKED >> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID BEFORE THAT LIFE WOULD OF LOOKED >> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SAID BEFORE THAT LIFE WOULD OF LOOKED A LOT DIFFERENT HAD WE NOT HAD BEFORE THAT LIFE WOULD OF LOOKED A LOT DIFFERENT HAD WE NOT HAD BEFORE THAT LIFE WOULD OF LOOKED A LOT DIFFERENT HAD WE NOT HAD THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM THAT A LOT DIFFERENT HAD WE NOT HAD THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM THAT A LOT DIFFERENT HAD WE NOT HAD THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM THAT THE GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE. THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM THAT THE GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE. THE INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM THAT THE GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE. IT DOESN'T SHOW A NEW THE GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE. IT DOESN'T SHOW A NEW THE GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE. IT DOESN'T SHOW A NEW CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH, BECAUSE IT DOESN'T SHOW A NEW CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH, BECAUSE IT DOESN'T SHOW A NEW CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH, BECAUSE IT'S IN THE BASELINE FOR SEVERAL CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH, BECAUSE IT'S IN THE BASELINE FOR SEVERAL CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH, BECAUSE IT'S IN THE BASELINE FOR SEVERAL YEARS NOW. IT'S IN THE BASELINE FOR SEVERAL YEARS NOW. IT'S IN THE BASELINE FOR SEVERAL YEARS NOW. BUT IT'S $18 BILLION PER YEAR, YEARS NOW. BUT IT'S $18 BILLION PER YEAR, YEARS NOW. BUT IT'S $18 BILLION PER YEAR, SO THAT'S CLOSE TO 1% OF PDP BUT IT'S $18 BILLION PER YEAR, SO THAT'S CLOSE TO 1% OF PDP BUT IT'S $18 BILLION PER YEAR, SO THAT'S CLOSE TO 1% OF PDP EVERY YEAR COMING FROM THAT SO THAT'S CLOSE TO 1% OF PDP EVERY YEAR COMING FROM THAT SO THAT'S CLOSE TO 1% OF PDP EVERY YEAR COMING FROM THAT SOURCE SO THAT'S AN IMPORTANT EVERY YEAR COMING FROM THAT SOURCE SO THAT'S AN IMPORTANT EVERY YEAR COMING FROM THAT SOURCE SO THAT'S AN IMPORTANT THING WHICH ALLOWED INTEREST SOURCE SO THAT'S AN IMPORTANT THING WHICH ALLOWED INTEREST SOURCE SO THAT'S AN IMPORTANT THING WHICH ALLOWED INTEREST RATES TO NOT GO TO ZERO OR BELOW THING WHICH ALLOWED INTEREST RATES TO NOT GO TO ZERO OR BELOW THING WHICH ALLOWED INTEREST RATES TO NOT GO TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO PERHAPS IN 2015/16. RATES TO NOT GO TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO PERHAPS IN 2015/16. RATES TO NOT GO TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO PERHAPS IN 2015/16. I'VE SAID THAT IN PUBLISHED ZERO PERHAPS IN 2015/16. I'VE SAID THAT IN PUBLISHED ZERO PERHAPS IN 2015/16. I'VE SAID THAT IN PUBLISHED PAPERS. I'VE SAID THAT IN PUBLISHED PAPERS. I'VE SAID THAT IN PUBLISHED PAPERS. SO, YES, IT'S BEEN AN IMPORTANT PAPERS. SO, YES, IT'S BEEN AN IMPORTANT PAPERS. SO, YES, IT'S BEEN AN IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION TO HOW WE'VE GOTTEN SO, YES, IT'S BEEN AN IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION TO HOW WE'VE GOTTEN SO, YES, IT'S BEEN AN IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION TO HOW WE'VE GOTTEN HERE, AND SO ALL THAT TELLS YOU, CONTRIBUTION TO HOW WE'VE GOTTEN HERE, AND SO ALL THAT TELLS YOU, CONTRIBUTION TO HOW WE'VE GOTTEN HERE, AND SO ALL THAT TELLS YOU, THOUGH, IS THAT THE HEADWINDS HERE, AND SO ALL THAT TELLS YOU, THOUGH, IS THAT THE HEADWINDS HERE, AND SO ALL THAT TELLS YOU, THOUGH, IS THAT THE HEADWINDS THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING ARE FAR THOUGH, IS THAT THE HEADWINDS THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING ARE FAR THOUGH, IS THAT THE HEADWINDS THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING ARE FAR GREATER AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING ARE FAR GREATER AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING ARE FAR GREATER AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ENVISIONED BACK IN 2013. GREATER AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ENVISIONED BACK IN 2013. GREATER AND DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ENVISIONED BACK IN 2013. I MEAN, WE -- YOU'RE RIGHT. WE ENVISIONED BACK IN 2013. I MEAN, WE -- YOU'RE RIGHT. WE ENVISIONED BACK IN 2013. I MEAN, WE -- YOU'RE RIGHT. WE THOUGHT THE NATURAL SEQUENCE I MEAN, WE -- YOU'RE RIGHT. WE THOUGHT THE NATURAL SEQUENCE I MEAN, WE -- YOU'RE RIGHT. WE THOUGHT THE NATURAL SEQUENCE WOULD HAPPEN PRETTY RAPIDLY AND WE THOUGHT THE NATURAL SEQUENCE WOULD HAPPEN PRETTY RAPIDLY AND WE THOUGHT THE NATURAL SEQUENCE WOULD HAPPEN PRETTY RAPIDLY AND THE FIRST THING THAT WENT WRONG WOULD HAPPEN PRETTY RAPIDLY AND THE FIRST THING THAT WENT WRONG WOULD HAPPEN PRETTY RAPIDLY AND THE FIRST THING THAT WENT WRONG THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WORLD THE FIRST THING THAT WENT WRONG THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WORLD THE FIRST THING THAT WENT WRONG THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WORLD RECOVERED, EXPORTS DIDN'T THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WORLD RECOVERED, EXPORTS DIDN'T THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WORLD RECOVERED, EXPORTS DIDN'T REVE RECOVERED, EXPORTS DIDN'T REVE RECOVERED, EXPORTS DIDN'T REVE AND DEEPER RESEARCH SHOWED US REVE AND DEEPER RESEARCH SHOWED US REVE AND DEEPER RESEARCH SHOWED US THAT, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE AND DEEPER RESEARCH SHOWED US THAT, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE AND DEEPER RESEARCH SHOWED US THAT, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE LOST A LOT OF EXPORTERS; THAT, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE LOST A LOT OF EXPORTERS; THAT, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE LOST A LOT OF EXPORTERS; THEREFORE, THERE WAS NO EXPORTER LOST A LOT OF EXPORTERS; THEREFORE, THERE WAS NO EXPORTER LOST A LOT OF EXPORTERS; THEREFORE, THERE WAS NO EXPORTER TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH DEMAND THEREFORE, THERE WAS NO EXPORTER TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH DEMAND THEREFORE, THERE WAS NO EXPORTER TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH DEMAND HAD GONE BACK UP. TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH DEMAND HAD GONE BACK UP. TO RECOVER EVEN THOUGH DEMAND HAD GONE BACK UP. SO THROUGH THOSE YEARS, WE HAD GONE BACK UP. SO THROUGH THOSE YEARS, WE HAD GONE BACK UP. SO THROUGH THOSE YEARS, WE REBUILT THE EXPORT SECTOR WITH SO THROUGH THOSE YEARS, WE REBUILT THE EXPORT SECTOR WITH SO THROUGH THOSE YEARS, WE REBUILT THE EXPORT SECTOR WITH COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANIES. REBUILT THE EXPORT SECTOR WITH COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANIES. REBUILT THE EXPORT SECTOR WITH COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANIES. NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES. COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANIES. NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES. COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANIES. NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES. SO THAT'S BEEN SLOW GOING. NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES. SO THAT'S BEEN SLOW GOING. NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES. SO THAT'S BEEN SLOW GOING. INVESTMENT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY SO THAT'S BEEN SLOW GOING. INVESTMENT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY SO THAT'S BEEN SLOW GOING. INVESTMENT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY A COUPLE OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS, INVESTMENT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY A COUPLE OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS, INVESTMENT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY A COUPLE OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS, PARTICULARLY THE NAFTA A COUPLE OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS, PARTICULARLY THE NAFTA A COUPLE OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS, PARTICULARLY THE NAFTA UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL TRADE PARTICULARLY THE NAFTA UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL TRADE PARTICULARLY THE NAFTA UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTY. UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTY. UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTY. SO ALL OF THAT MATTERS A GREAT UNCERTAINTY. SO ALL OF THAT MATTERS A GREAT UNCERTAINTY. SO ALL OF THAT MATTERS A GREAT DEAL TO WHAT WE CALL THE MACRO SO ALL OF THAT MATTERS A GREAT DEAL TO WHAT WE CALL THE MACRO SO ALL OF THAT MATTERS A GREAT DEAL TO WHAT WE CALL THE MACRO ECONOMIC RISKS, AND SO JUST DEAL TO WHAT WE CALL THE MACRO ECONOMIC RISKS, AND SO JUST DEAL TO WHAT WE CALL THE MACRO ECONOMIC RISKS, AND SO JUST GETTING TO HOME, AS WE DESCRIBE ECONOMIC RISKS, AND SO JUST GETTING TO HOME, AS WE DESCRIBE ECONOMIC RISKS, AND SO JUST GETTING TO HOME, AS WE DESCRIBE IT, IS QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT GETTING TO HOME, AS WE DESCRIBE IT, IS QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT GETTING TO HOME, AS WE DESCRIBE IT, IS QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT GIVEN ALL OF THOSE THINGS THAT IT, IS QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT GIVEN ALL OF THOSE THINGS THAT IT, IS QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT GIVEN ALL OF THOSE THINGS THAT OCCURRED AND WE ARE SOLIDLY AT GIVEN ALL OF THOSE THINGS THAT OCCURRED AND WE ARE SOLIDLY AT GIVEN ALL OF THOSE THINGS THAT OCCURRED AND WE ARE SOLIDLY AT HOME BUT STILL WITH INTEREST OCCURRED AND WE ARE SOLIDLY AT HOME BUT STILL WITH INTEREST OCCURRED AND WE ARE SOLIDLY AT HOME BUT STILL WITH INTEREST RATES REALLY LOW, STILL WITH HOME BUT STILL WITH INTEREST RATES REALLY LOW, STILL WITH HOME BUT STILL WITH INTEREST RATES REALLY LOW, STILL WITH FISCAL POLICY MAKING A RATES REALLY LOW, STILL WITH FISCAL POLICY MAKING A RATES REALLY LOW, STILL WITH FISCAL POLICY MAKING A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION, SO FISCAL POLICY MAKING A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION, SO FISCAL POLICY MAKING A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION, SO IT'S NOT ALL BEING DONE BY THE SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION, SO IT'S NOT ALL BEING DONE BY THE SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION, SO IT'S NOT ALL BEING DONE BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR ECONOMY. IT'S NOT ALL BEING DONE BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR ECONOMY. IT'S NOT ALL BEING DONE BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR ECONOMY. SO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE PRIVATE SECTOR ECONOMY. SO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE PRIVATE SECTOR ECONOMY. SO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE DONE. SO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE DONE. SO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE DONE. IT'S NOT OVER. DONE. IT'S NOT OVER. DONE. IT'S NOT OVER. BUT AS FOR YOUR PRIOR QUESTION, IT'S NOT OVER. BUT AS FOR YOUR PRIOR QUESTION, IT'S NOT OVER. BUT AS FOR YOUR PRIOR QUESTION, YOU KNOW, HAVING THOSE THINGS AT BUT AS FOR YOUR PRIOR QUESTION, YOU KNOW, HAVING THOSE THINGS AT BUT AS FOR YOUR PRIOR QUESTION, YOU KNOW, HAVING THOSE THINGS AT THE TABLE, I MEAN, IT'S YOU KNOW, HAVING THOSE THINGS AT THE TABLE, I MEAN, IT'S YOU KNOW, HAVING THOSE THINGS AT THE TABLE, I MEAN, IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT THE TABLE, I MEAN, IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT THE TABLE, I MEAN, IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT WAS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT WAS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT WAS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES AND SOME INDEPENDENT THING, WAS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES AND SOME INDEPENDENT THING, WAS FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES AND SOME INDEPENDENT THING, RIGHT, SO IF -- DO YOU WANT TO AND SOME INDEPENDENT THING, RIGHT, SO IF -- DO YOU WANT TO AND SOME INDEPENDENT THING, RIGHT, SO IF -- DO YOU WANT TO ADD ANYTHING ABOUT THAT? RIGHT, SO IF -- DO YOU WANT TO ADD ANYTHING ABOUT THAT? RIGHT, SO IF -- DO YOU WANT TO ADD ANYTHING ABOUT THAT? >> I JUST THOUGHT THAT ADD ANYTHING ABOUT THAT? >> I JUST THOUGHT THAT ADD ANYTHING ABOUT THAT? >> I JUST THOUGHT THAT EVERYTHING THAT THE GOVERNOR >> I JUST THOUGHT THAT EVERYTHING THAT THE GOVERNOR >> I JUST THOUGHT THAT EVERYTHING THAT THE GOVERNOR SAID WAS OUTLINED PRETTY CLEARLY EVERYTHING THAT THE GOVERNOR SAID WAS OUTLINED PRETTY CLEARLY EVERYTHING THAT THE GOVERNOR SAID WAS OUTLINED PRETTY CLEARLY IN OUR INFLATION CONTROL SAID WAS OUTLINED PRETTY CLEARLY IN OUR INFLATION CONTROL SAID WAS OUTLINED PRETTY CLEARLY IN OUR INFLATION CONTROL AGREEMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT IN OUR INFLATION CONTROL AGREEMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT IN OUR INFLATION CONTROL AGREEMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT THAT WE DID IN 2016. AGREEMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT THAT WE DID IN 2016. AGREEMENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT THAT WE DID IN 2016. WE'RE REDOING IT FOR 20/21 BUT THAT WE DID IN 2016. WE'RE REDOING IT FOR 20/21 BUT THAT WE DID IN 2016. WE'RE REDOING IT FOR 20/21 BUT THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A SINGLE WE'RE REDOING IT FOR 20/21 BUT THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A SINGLE WE'RE REDOING IT FOR 20/21 BUT THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A SINGLE TARGET BUT WE SHOULD TAKE INTO THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A SINGLE TARGET BUT WE SHOULD TAKE INTO THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A SINGLE TARGET BUT WE SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY TARGET BUT WE SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY TARGET BUT WE SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE ACCOUNT CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE ACCOUNT CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE THAT TARGET OUTSIDE OUR USUAL AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE THAT TARGET OUTSIDE OUR USUAL AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO ACHIEVE THAT TARGET OUTSIDE OUR USUAL HORIZON, WHICH IS 68 QUARTERS, THAT TARGET OUTSIDE OUR USUAL HORIZON, WHICH IS 68 QUARTERS, THAT TARGET OUTSIDE OUR USUAL HORIZON, WHICH IS 68 QUARTERS, THINGS LIKE FINANCIAL STABILITY, HORIZON, WHICH IS 68 QUARTERS, THINGS LIKE FINANCIAL STABILITY, HORIZON, WHICH IS 68 QUARTERS, THINGS LIKE FINANCIAL STABILITY, EVEN WITHIN OUR HORIZON, WE THINGS LIKE FINANCIAL STABILITY, EVEN WITHIN OUR HORIZON, WE THINGS LIKE FINANCIAL STABILITY, EVEN WITHIN OUR HORIZON, WE SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT HOW EVEN WITHIN OUR HORIZON, WE SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT HOW EVEN WITHIN OUR HORIZON, WE SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT HOW WE'RE STABILIZING THE ECONOMY, SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT HOW WE'RE STABILIZING THE ECONOMY, SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT HOW WE'RE STABILIZING THE ECONOMY, WHERE EMPLOYMENT IS. WE'RE STABILIZING THE ECONOMY, WHERE EMPLOYMENT IS. WE'RE STABILIZING THE ECONOMY, WHERE EMPLOYMENT IS. THESE ARE ALL THINGS WE TAKE WHERE EMPLOYMENT IS. THESE ARE ALL THINGS WE TAKE WHERE EMPLOYMENT IS. THESE ARE ALL THINGS WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AND SO IT'S NOTHING THESE ARE ALL THINGS WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AND SO IT'S NOTHING THESE ARE ALL THINGS WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AND SO IT'S NOTHING NEW THAT WE'VE INTRODUCED. INTO ACCOUNT AND SO IT'S NOTHING NEW THAT WE'VE INTRODUCED. INTO ACCOUNT AND SO IT'S NOTHING NEW THAT WE'VE INTRODUCED. [ Please S
B1 inflation risk data question interest forecast Bank of Canada releases latest interest rate decision 4 0 林宜悉 posted on 2020/03/05 More Share Save Report Video vocabulary