Whoiswhat I wouldcalltheyeomanofallthepeoplewhoworkonthingslikethisattheuniversityandamazingassettoourgrouphere, I liketothinktheconsortiumstaffforallthatthey'vedone.
Theconsortiumitselfis a universitywidecenterthatlinks 20 leadinguniversitycentersandprogramstoaddresscuttingedgesocietalissuesposedbybiomedicalscienceandlifesciencescombined.
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GerberdingservedasdirectoroftheCentersforDiseaseControlandPreventionforsevenyearsfrom 2002 in 2009 a timethat I wasfortunatetoworkverycloselywithherinthatposition.
HavingpreviouslyservedasdirectoroftheEpidemiologyandPreventionInterventionCenterattheSanFranciscoGeneraland a tenuredacademicfacultyattheUniversityofCalifornia, SanFrancisco, DoctorbeingattendedcollegeandmedicalschoolatCaseWesternReserveUniversityandtrainedininternalmedicine.
I cantellyou I couldgiveher a lotofcreditforanyofthethings I evergetright, andalltheonesthatgetRog, I'llgive I'lltakeresponsibilityforSoit's withmyrealpleasureNinerintroducedDrJulieGerberding.
Um, I wasactuallyborninMinnesotaatSTMary's HospitalattheMayo.
Soitisreallycominghome, eventhoughthatwas a longtimeago.
Um, itiswonderfultobehereamongfriendsandtohavesuch a welcomingintroductionfrommydearfriend, Dr O Sirhome.
I alsoacknowledgethatmyfamilylivesinMinnesotanow.
Mydaughterintwograndchildrenliveinthecities, andlaterthisweek I willseemygranddaughterforthefirsttime, Sothat's veryexciting.
Sotoday I'm goingtotalk a littlebitaboutthebroadperspectiveonantimicrobialpreparednessandreallygettotheheartoftheissueofwhydowekeephavingmeetingsonthissubject?
And I willreviewagainmyinterestsandconflictofinterestbecause I'm requiredtodothatfrom a legalperspectivefrommyowncorporatevantagepoint, butalsobecause I liketosharethefactthat I have a historyofbeingacademicallyinvolved, involvedwithbusiness, butalsoinvolvedinsomenonprofitandglobalhealthorganizations.
Butthemostimportantthingisinthepicture, whichisthelasttime I attendedatSanFranciscoGeneralHospitalandhad a wonderfulpatientwhotoldmehisstoryofinfectiousdiseaseandremindsmethatattheendoftheday, mymaininterestisinmedicineandbeing a doctorinittheendofthedayThat's reallywhywe'reallheretogetheristohelpprotectpeopleandultimatelytomakesuretheygetthecareandhealthprotectionthattheyneed.
Somyobjectivesforthisconversationareverysimple.
I firstwanttojustreviewtheissuesthatdrivetheemergenceofbiothreatstodescribe a littlebitaboutwhat I callthebiopreparednessparadoxtotrytounderstandwhywehavesuch a difficultyinbiopreparednessandthenwhatcanwedoaboutit?
GoingforwardsawonMyhistoryinthisworldreallydidbeginonSeptember 11thin 2001 11 daysintomytenureastheactingdeputydirectoroftheNationalCenterforInfectiousDiseases, a positionthatDrJimHughes, thedirectorofthecenter, askedmetoassumetemporarilywhileherecruitedfor a permanentdeputy.
AndonSeptember 11th I cametowork, I turnedonthetelevision.
I sawwhatwasgoingoninNewYork, and I wasliketherestofthenationincredulousatwhathadhappened.
Butthatmomentintime, inthatsortofcoincidentalpositionthat I hadhavingsomeaccountabilityfortheoverallinfectiousdiseaseoutlookattheCDCreallybroughtmetothefrontlineofwhatfollowedthe 9 11 attacks.
Thentherewas a smallproblemoverthesummervacationofmonkeypox, followedinMarchwiththeSARSoutbreak.
Thenwelaunched a smallpoximmunizationprogram, whichwasobviouslyverycontroversialandchallenging.
AvianinfluenzapoppedagaininAsia.
MadcowdiseaseruinedmyChristmas, andprettymuchthiswashow I experiencemytimeatCDC.
So I wasreallyimmersedinthecrucibleoftheoutbreaksandthepublichealthemergenciesthatwereoccurringandveryquicklycametorealizethatbiopreparednesswascriticallyimportant.
PartoftheCDseesgloballeadershiproleandthatwehad a lotofworktodotobringourselvestofullcapabilityfromthatperspective.
ButduringmytenureatCDC, wehadmanypublichealthemergenciesbeyondthosethatwereaccountedforbyinfectiousdiseasethreats, and 43 timesouremergencyoperationscenterwasactivated.
Andwhilemostoftheseinvolvedinfectiousdisease, therewerealso a seriesofhurricanes, includingKatrina, WilmaandRitaandseveralothers, um, thespaceshuttleexplosion, whichresultedinthepotentialforchemicalhazardexposuresinthefalloutfromthat, therewereissuesrelatedtopoliticaleventssuchasthenationalconventionsand a lotofthingsthatgoonbehindthescenesthecomingthroughthethreatassessmentagenciesthatdon't necessarilymakethenews.
Butwe'rereasonstoactivateandpreparefor a potentialneedfor a publichealthresponse.
So I becameveryfamiliarwithkindofthecrisisenvironmentthatweoperateinonthefrontlinesofpublichealth, anditcausedmetotrytounderstandandreallystudywhatis a crisis.
Whatarethekindsofcrisesthatleadershavetounderstandanddealwithin a publichealthsense?
Andwhereareweintheworld?
Soinpreparationforthistalk, I GoogledcrisisjustfromthebeginningofApriluntilSundayandlookedatwhatkindofcrisesarewecurrentlyexperiencingintheworld?
Wehave a socialcrisessuchastheheroincrisisthatissoseriousinsomecommunitiesthatthemorguesaretoofullofyoungpeopledyingthattheycan't evengettheautopsy's doneandprepareforappropriateassessmentandburial.
Wehavethecrisisofstudentdebt, whichispotentiallyanissuehereinMinnesota, certainlywaswhen I visited U C Berkeley a coupleofweeksagothehealthcarecrisisweareallfamiliarwith, um, theviolence, crisis, theguns, theschoolshootings, allofthosecrisesandagainremindyouwhat I'm justtalkingaboutthefirst 10 daysofApril, the U.
N humanitariancrisis, descriptionofthefoodsecurityorinsecurity.
I shouldsayenvironmentalissuessuchasthisexampleofwhat's happeningwithsalmonpopulationsandtheenvironment.
So, um, from a Googleperspective, we'redealingwith a numberoflocal, regionalandglobalcrisessimultaneously, allinthenewsinjust a fewshortperioddaysoftime.
Butnoticewhatwasnotincludedinthelist.
I hadtogettopage 15 oftheGooglesearchresponsebefore I gotaninfectiousdiseaseoutbreaklistedas, AH, crisisintheworld.
Andthiswaswhatitwas.
ThecholeracrisisinSomalia, whichissortof a juxtapositionof a lotofdifferentkindsofGracie's, includinggeopolitical, humanitarian, naturaldisasterandsoforth.
Sowhilewelivein a worldthatisconstantlybeingexposedtoveryimportantissuesandchallengesinthemindsofthepeoplewhoareusingGoogle, oratleastthemindsofthepeoplewhohavedesignedthealgorithmsthatliebehindtheGooglesearchengine, um, thekindsofthingsthatbringustogetherherearenotnecessarilytopofmind, and I checkedtoseeifitwasthis a fluke, oristhissomethingthatisprevalent?
Thisis a longerperiodoftimeLookingatintheBlueLine, Googlesearcheson a relativescaleforvariouscrisesandintheredGooglesearchesforinfectiousdisease.
Thiswasjust, um I forgetwhatdaythiswas a coupledaysagofromCIDrap, but, youknow, mentioningthe H and 92 inpigsisanyonehearingaboutthatonthefrontpageoftheStarTribune, probablynot.
Myownview, ofcourse, and I believe I'm probablypreachingtothechoirinthisaudienceisthatweabsolutelymustdomoretofocusonthesethreatsbecauseifanything, we'regoingtoseemoreandmoreofthem, andthescaleoftheirimpactisgoingtogetlargerandlargerbecauseofthemacrotrendsthataregoingonintheworld.
Oneofthemostimportantmacroturnsisurbanizationandtheincursionofhumanbeingsintoenvironmentsthatpreviouslywererelativelyprivilegedsothatthingscirculatingin a zoo, notIQoreventheahplantworldenvironment.
I livein a semiruralareainPennsylvania, and I watchedthisunfoldinmylittlesevenacres, wherewenowhavecoyoteswhopatroltheriverfront.
Wehavelotsoffox.
I haveacquiredpastorelloinfection.
Myhusbandand I haveeachhadLymediseasetwice, andwe'reliving.
I'm I'vehadBartonElla.
We'relivingsortofin a microtaxbookofzoonoticdiseasesbecausewearepushingintonatureand, um, notgivinganimalsenoughroominspacetooccupytheirnormalhabitatwithoutourpresence.
And I'veillustratedfourofthemostimportantmosquitoesintheworld, inpartbecausethere's a littlelessandthistheseairsuchgoodphotographs, which I believe I capturedfromtheCDC.
Butitreallyhelpsyouidentifymosquitoes.
Soifyou'relookingat a mosquitoandithas a hunchback, that's a cueLXmosquitolikethatwentupthere.
Ifthemosquitoappearstobestandingonitshead, it's a monopoliesmosquito.
Youcanseeit's almostperpendiculartotheskin.
Andifit's ah, um, a neweightiesmosquito, youcanseethatthey'resortofeventlikethissortof a cricketmosquito.
Thisisthetigermosquitohere.
So, youknow, shouldyoubeinterestedinwhatmosquitoisbitingyou?
Um, thishopefullywillgiveyou a clue, but I woulddiscourageyoufromallowinganyofthesemosquitoesdobiteyoubecausenoneofthemarefriendly.
ThisgivesyoutheglobalmapofwherebothEgypt I andElbowpickedusarelocatedintheworld.
And I'm particularlyinterestedinthismaprightherebecauseittellsuscertainlywherewewouldexpectZikatogonextIfalbopictusreallybecomesanefficienthostinVectorforthatpathogen.
Insomeofthesentinelworkthathelpsusunderstandandevaluatedin a populationbasis.
What's goingon?
WentOneofthemostexcitingthings I didatCDCwastogotoPuertoRicowiththeteamwhenwewerelookingatDenkingertransmissionthereandgoingtopeople's homeswith a littlevacuumpackonmybackandvacuumoutthemosquitoesthatwereintheclosetorbehindthecurtainsbecausetheteamwasconductingongoingsurveillanceofwhatmosquitospecieswereinpeople's homesandwhatviruseswerethosemosquitoescarrying?
Youknow, upuntilthattime, therehavebeen 23 outbreaksofEbola, verysmallinrelativeterms, untilthisgiantoutbreakoccurredinWestAfrica, and I knowyou'veheard a lotaboutthat, so I won't dwellonit, butsufficetosaythatthemainissuehereagainisincursion, wherewehavepeoplemovingclosertovectorsinthiscasebats, um, andthespilloverintotheprimatepopulation, orperhapsothermammals, andthenthe, umgreaterandgreaterconnectionwithpeopleandintermediatehostsorthereservoir.
Sowehave a lottolearnaboutthebats, buttheonethingweknowforsureisthatthey'reoneverycontinentexceptmaybeAntarctica.
Andtheyare a veryimportantpositiveinfluenceonourecosystemintermsofwhattheydoitforcombatingmosquitoesandtransportingseeds.
Butalsotheyarevectorsofsomeprettyimportantdiseases, and I justwanttopointoutthislittlefrighteningarticleandemerginginfectionsdescribingtheconfidentbatantibodyantibodiesinbatsinBangladesh.
Um, anditshouldhavebeen a predictablesurprisethatsoonerorlater, someonefromSouththeirWesternAfricawasgonnaendupintheUnitedStatesandcause a greatdealofdifficultyforourhealthcaresystem.
Thisisjusttheepicurvefor, youknow, thelettersandthecases, the 22 casesthatoccurredatthattime, and I don't knowifyoucanremember, but I sureremembertheincredibledisruptionthatthiscausedacrossourentirepostalsystem, the U.
Itwasanastonishinganddifficultysituationandas a consequenceofourrecognizingatCDCandelsewherethatwehad a lottolearnabouthowtomanagesuch a complexandinternationaloutbreaksituation.
Weinitiated a wholesetofafteractionsreactionafteractionreviewsthatJimHughesreallypulledtogetherfortheNationalCenterofInfectiousDisease.
Andwecameupwithsortofahahlistand I won't gothroughthemindetail, butjusttogiveyou a flavorofwhatsomeoftheseissueswereintermsofcoordinationandcollaborationjusthowdifficultitwasfortheCDCas a medicallyorientedepidemiologicinvestigationteamandtheFBIinvestigationteam.
Thisare a numberofspecimensthatareUSStatelaboratorynetwork, LittleLaboratoryResponseNetworkwasaskedtohandleandpowdersandenvironmentalsamplesduringtheanthraxinvestigations.
Youknow, nolabcanacceptsearchcapacityatthislevelin a timelyway, whichhashadnocapacitytoreallymanage.
Whatifyourememberwe'rejust a fewlettersand 22 casesofdisease, soitreallythemultiplierhereisimmensecommunication.
Becauseas a scientificculture, weweremoreconcernedaboutgettingthesciencerighttoestatewereactuallyunderstandingthatwehadtobeoutinfrontofwherethenextpublicis.
Whydowekeepgoingthroughthiscycleof a problemoccurs, werespond, welearnweinvestandthentimegoesby.
Problemoccurs, werespond, weinvestthecyclerepeatsbutnotrepeatingin a waythatreallygivesusconfidencethatwe'vesolvedtherealunderlyingissues.
So I refertothisasthebiopreparednessparadoxthatdespiteallthisevidencethatthesehumanandanimalpathogensthatcancausesignificantlocal, regionalandglobalhumanitarian, social, politicalandeconomicdamage, it's pathogensareemergingandorreemergingatanacceleratedpace.
Butbiopreparednessremainsalarminglyinadequate, notjustintheUSbutcertainlyon a globalbasis.
So, um, youknowthat, um, Mikeandand, um, Markhavepublished a recentbookcalledTheDeadliestEnemythatreallyputsthesthreatsintofourmaincategoriesofprioritization, and I certainlyagreewiththiscategorization.
I thoughtthiswas a reallynicewaytobringthethreatassessmentintoahuniformpackage.
Sowe'vebecomecomplacentaboutthisproblem, notreallyfocusingonit, exceptfor a fewpeopleinin a fewlocations.
Thesecondissue, I think, isthatwehavecompetingpriorities.
I wentthroughallthosecrisesatthebeginningtosaywhatshareofmindisleftovertothinkaboutinfectionswhenyou'vegotalltheseotherfrontlineissuesgoingon, andthat's a fairconcern.
Expertsargueupdifferentsidesof a factualissue, andyouknow, ourmedia, particularlyourtelevisionmedia, areverygoodatdoingthis.
Theylovetotakesomereputableexpertandthensomepersonwho's a kookandputthemsidebyside, asiftherewas a 50% probabilitythateachknewwhattheyweretalkingaboutsotheyartificiallyendorseorenhancedthecredibilityofpeoplewhoreallyhavenobusinesstalkingaboutthingsthattheydon't knowanythingabout.
Thefirstiswhat I, as a scientist, thinkofasriskassessment, whichisthisvery, YouknowwhattheareYouknow, thatwhat's thetransmissioncoefficientwasthemortality?
What's what's thispopulationimpact?
Howfastisitspreadingallthethingsthatcouldbeeithermeasuredormodeledorsomehowquantifiedintermsofmassthat I canunderstandandcompareandtakento a consideration?
Youknow, it's a sortoftalkaboutthedataandwhattheymean, andthenwehave a discussionandwoulduse a lotofpowerpoints.
Howmanypeopleherehaveteenagersintheirfamily?
Soifyouwantedyourteenagertonottextanddrive, wouldyoushowthem a powerpointpresentation?
Ofcoursenot.
I mean, it's justnot a verypersuasiveformofmotivating.
Communicatebehbehaviorchange.
It's a formofprovidinginformation, butit's not a veryeffectiveformatmotivatingorincentivizingpeople.
Andsowehavetohave a differentplatformforcommunicatingaboutrisktopeoplewhoarerespondinginthatriskperceptionmodel.
Andthatistojustgettothepoint.
Whatisthemessagethatwe'retryingtocommunicate?
Maybewehave a fewdatapointsorevidencepointstosupportit.
Canwemake a persuasiveargument?
Butfoundational e.
Thevaluehereisinstories, andwhenwethinkaboutwhowewanttoinfluencemost, I thinkweneedtorememberthatpoliticiansandpolicymakersarepeople, too, andtheyveryoftenrespondtothesekindsofissuesfrom a riskperceptionpointofview, not a riskassessmentpointofview.
Sothisiswhattheoperationscenterlooksliketodaybecausewewereabletoshownotjustthepresidentbut a lotofotherimportantpoliticalleadersaswellasbusinessleadersinAtlantathatweneededhelpinordertohavewhatwasnecessarytodothejobthatweneededtogetdone.
Someofyouarefamiliarwithwhatisknownastheallhazardsstrategy, whichisbasicallyaninvestmentwemakeinplanningforsomethingordinary, likefluisalsoinvestmentthatwillhelpuswiththeflupandemicoreven a terrorismattack.
Sobytalkingin a languagethatgivesthemmorefortheirmoney, particularlyifthey'refiscallyconservative, itreallygivesyou a broaderopportunitytoinformthemandmotivatethemtomaketheinvestment.
Sothishashad a nameperfecttrackrecord, andwekindofhavefitsandstartswithit.
But I justbringitupbecause I thinkitagainillustratesthatwe'vegottalearnhowtocommunicatewiththepeoplewhohavetomaketheseinvestmentdecisionsinwaysthataremuchmorerealtothemthanourriskassessmentmethodologywouldnormallydictate.
Thelastpoint I shouldmakehereisthatitreallytakesmorethan a governmenttosolvetheproblemsthatwehaveinfrontofus.
Havesortofcomefullcircle, havingbeenanacademicianthanthegovernmentworker I'vesaidontheboardsof a numberofNGOsandnow I amintheprivatesectorand I'vecometounderstandthepowerthatbusinesseshaveinleveragingaction, whetherit's localactioninthecommunityorglobalactioninsomethingliketakingontheagendaoftheUnitedNations.
I participateonbehalfofmycompanyinthebusiness, um, contributionstoachievingthesustainabledevelopmentgoalsandinthatenvironment, sortofAhah, situationtodaywherethere's a lotofskepticismaboutthemotivesofbusinessandwhybusinesseswouldbeinvolvedinsomeoftheseissues.
I thinkweneedtogetpastthatbecauseifwedon't involveourbusinessleadersand I'm notjusttalkingaboutpharmaceuticalcompaniesorthehealthsector, I'm talkingaboutbusinesswith a capital B.
ThisistheWorldHealthOrganizationinternationalhealthregulations, whichourgreatregulationsneverreallybeeninforceandneverreallybeenfunded, and I couldgothrough a wholelistofthingsthatagainweknowwhattodo.
Thisis a pictureof a neworganizationcalledtheCoalitionforEpidemicPreparednessInitiative.
I disclosedthat I sitontheboardofSEPI, butitis a privatepublicpartnership, whichincludestheWellcomeTrust, theGatesFoundation, thegovernmentsofseveralcountriesandseveralbusinesseswhoarecomingtogether.
Andsofar, I thinkwehavearound $700 millionavailabletoinvestinvaccinesforpathogensofglobalhealththreats.
Sothisisjustoneexample, and I thinkthatmodelisgainingmomentum, butittakes a lotofinputandunderstandingandultimatelyparticipationamongpeoplelikeyouwhoareprivilegedtohave a muchbroaderunderstandingofthetruenatureofthethreatandhopefullycanbeactivatedtogobeyonddescribingwhatneedstobedonetoreallythekindofpoliticalaction, anengagementwiththepolicymakersinthebusinessleaderstomakeitreallyhappen.
Oh, thankyouforthatsimplyoutstandingoverviewwherewe'reattodayandnowtoprovidesomecommentary, wehaveoneofourownDrAmyKirshner, whoisthedirectoroftheFoodProtectionDefenseInstitute, a departmentHomelandSecurityCenterofExcellencein a czwell, she's assistantprofessorinthecollegedinnerandmedicinehereattheUniversityMinnesota.
Sheleads a verytalentedstaffandcoordinatestheresearchconsortiumofexpertsdedicatedprotectingthefoodsystemthroughresearchandeducation.
ButpriortocomingtotheUniversityofMinnesotaandrollsthat I hadthegoodopportunitytoworkwithDrKirshnershowanuptickinEppingAllergiespositionsatNORAD, the U S NorthernCommand, andwiththeUnitedStatesAirForce, wheresheworkedonhealthinformatics, biosurveillanceandDataAnalyticson a numberofinfectiousdiseaseissues.
Shehasanextensivebackgroundinhomelandsecurityanddefense, supportingpreparednessandresponseforrealworldandexerciseeventstoincludeHurricaneKatrinaand H one n one.
Asyouheard, I camefromtheDepartmentofDefense, a czanepidemiologistworkingonhomelandsecurity.
Sofirst, letmesayhowthrilled I amtohaveDrGerberdingwithusattheuniversitytoday.
I hadtheincrediblegoodfortuneofwatchingDrGerberdingleadthetransformationofpublichealthpost 9 11 Andatthistime I was a youngpublichealthprofessionalatUSNorthernCommand.
I wasassignedtothencaughtperthecoordinatingofficeforterrorismpreparednessandemergencyresponse.
I spentmany a daywithhercolleaguesinthatoperationcenter.
Butwhat I sawwasDrGerberdingboldlyleadheragencytounderstandinmeetnewthreatsthatwehadn't anticipated.
I shouldalsopubliclyacknowledgethatwhat a gracioushostsheis.
Theyweregoingandyouwere a verygracioushost, Um, and a tremendouscollaboratorto a newtypeofpartnerthatwasthemilitary.
Sowewegreatlyappreciatethat I want a pointspecificallytotheslidewiththetimeline, withalltheeventsCDCwasrespondingtosimultaneously.
Whatthesliderepresents, I think, is a complexityofpublichealthinourefforts, fromactsofMotherNature, likehurricanesandearthquakes, tothemanmadeattackssuchas 9 11 andAmerithrax.
Andsometimesthosepublichealtheventswerethedisaster, likemonkeypoxandothertimes, publichealthcrisiswas a derivativeof a disaster, suchaswhatwe'veseenwithcholerainHaiti.
Now, as I reflectedandlookedatthatslideandthoughtmoreaboutcommentarytoday, thebookpredictableSurprisesbyMaxBays, ErmanandMichaelWatkinscomestomind.