Here you get Oh, I get to be the show.

Once of guys used to sense here and I am joined by fill in front of the camera this time, which is kind of rare.

It is weird.

Um, be over there nicely back there.

There are there, you know where your point There's a talking piece I want to do, which I normally would just do is a talking head where I talk at you guys.

But instead of talking at you, I wanted to have a conversation with Bill in front of the camera where we sort of talk about where we are with Intel.

Kind of take a look a little bit of the past few years, projecting what the next few years are gonna be because this is a hot topic that's not going anywhere anytime soon.

And that is Intel.

Are they falling behind a M D, or do they know exactly what they're doing?

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You didn't open this yet, all right, So as long as reasons been around, um, it seems on the surface, like Intel has just been either non responsive doesn't care.

It kind of putting their head in the sand and ignoring the problem and this Israel of the things that people have kind of said.

But what we've done is we've kind of done some research here, taking a look at investor relations Web site or at least investor relations page on Intel's website, which is perfectly public, where they talked about all their earnings, which department they earned them, in which businesses they're in.

We'll take a look at a M.

The market share changes a cz well as their stock, but what we want to kind of talk about here today is what we think my end up happening in 2020 and kind of answer the question of Does Intel just not care anymore?

Well, beyond its going to this video, it's something that I was pretty much ready to say.

Yeah, until just doesn't care anymore.

But this is this is this is deeper than that, and hopefully today we can.

They're almost matched anyway.

All right, let's go and start off with market prices then.

AMG is currently on the NASDAQ.

That's now the NASDAQ at $44 of 15 cents U.

S.

D.

That's up a dollar.

32 trick trade of trick losing of trade on Friday.

Training clothes.

That's a 3% uptick on Friday.

Now, typically, you'll find Friday as either your biggest increasingly biggest decrease you probably Monday.

For those people, it's kind of market shares are, the market goes, but if we look at Intel, it's kind of funny.

Um, there are $58.95 which is for the first time in a long time.

A single stock of envy is almost the same prices a single stock of in tow.

But if you look at the five year trends in 2016 Intel was at 30 ish bucks a share in 2060.

Amy was 2 to 87 to yeah, so to 14 to 44 bucks in three years.

There's clearly a bit more market growth for MD and 2016 also marks when rise, then came out.

Yeah, Intel adopted the whole well.

They assumed the market was going to adopt the whole wait and see.

Because unfortunately for a India's Muchas Andy, families might hate to hear this.

They were always known as the high train that derailed.

They were always a derailing hyper.

Yeah, but you know what also happened around that time?

Lisa suit at the help?

Yep.

And for the first time in a long time, A M D.

Had a focused, very good leader at the helm of that ship because they had also gone through, like, what, three different CEOs in a five year period.

So Risen was one of those things that caused the upset that it promised.

And if we fast forward now to 2019 were now on second Gen Zen Architecture, third generation risin for both desktop as well as thread Ripper, which is HPD year hyper ta was driving it, which is now causing a disruption in the market, which is what we were hoping for.

Now, you have done some research here about the market trends in terms of how CPS or developed, how long it takes them to come to market.

Don't you explain that you said that there was a keynote once with with video that was saying that they're basically late 3 to 5 years ahead.

Yeah.

So, Jen Sun and specifically said when they came out with the p 100 think it was It was it was like the data center exactly that they were five years ahead in development.

Yeah, but that they do specifically stagger these releases on purpose.

Overtime?

Yeah, like a lot of people think that, like, you know, cos like in video or in tow or even apple or just like sitting on, you know?

Okay, well, I think it's time to launch the 38 e.

R.

What?

Everything.

Then they hit a button.

It's like, No, the 38 e t.

I is pretty much already just testing, you know?

I mean, like the R D department in and videos like I'd be willing to the 11th exactly like that's how far ahead that the, you know, these companies have to plan and they kind of work in that space of like, tomorrow's tomorrow as opposed to, you know, working one day ahead.

Basically, which really also shows you considering Intel's a company that has annual releases.

Yeah, that they weren't working on anything for an answer to rise in because I don't think they believe reason was truly going to go anywhere.

Yeah, I think I think that they thought it was gonna be another FX based processor that promised high court counts that just were very poor and I, p.

C and just did not live up to the hype.

But I think what they didn't expect in 2016 when AMG had promised a 50% improvement on my PC and they under promised and actually over delivered on that yeah, and then continuously annually improved that I, p.

C.

Are at the point now to where Intel truly wasn't working on anything to release right now to compete with that, which is why we're getting what seems to be rebranded.

CPU is based on the same architectures and only a clock speed bump on architecture that's already around.

Yeah, and you know, you take that 3 to 5 year figure that they're kind of, you know, cos always working 3 to 5 years ahead in the future.

What they were working on in the future 3 to 5 years ago is right now.

And that's when they thought they probably thought rising wasn't gonna go anywhere.

So they were like, Okay, why bother?

You know, pushing the envelope or anything with our process is now suddenly rides has gone somewhere, and they're like, Oh, crap.

I might even speculate as to say that what they were working on to release right around now is not good enough.

Yeah, like maybe because it we've seen as much as, like, 5% improvement on I, p C.

And other things with the intel like, here's 3%.

Here's 0%.

But I think that with the improvements that we've been seeing on a m.

D.

I think whatever they may have been working on in 2016 that we would be seeing around now.

Maybe next year might not be enough to catch up to the improvements that we're seeing with Andy now here's the thing.

We're talking course speed versus core clock.

They're two different approaches.

But you you looked at the arc and you saw that basically desktop like this, like mainstream dustup, tends to be kind of their R and D playground, where they're gonna recoup a lot of the cost to develop the architecture's.

Because what we always notices that several years later is where the architecture that's developed for mainstream get scaled up to enterprise solution.

I think the data center group is just basically, they play it safe.

We were looking up earlier like, because they're on the second generation of Intel scaleable processors that which is the current line of like, you know, Data Center, Super High Court, Cal, whatever.

Blah, blah, blah.

So, yeah, but the first generation of those available processors was not 1/9 Jen Architecture like you would think it was 6 10 in the skylight, so they were selling that to Q 3 2018 Yana processor that launched on desktop that architecture in 2015.

Yeah, you could have bought a brand new Sky Lake processor in 2018 if it was a Z on.

And that's like, weird to think about.

Yeah, So they skipped.

What, 54 or five generations for?

For George?

Yeah, of processors.

Just, you know, with their next generation of hot stuff.

So that's how safe they play it with their data center, but new center solution.

But we've already kind of learned, though, that the generation names are just just a ploy from Intel that they're not truly, truly generational improvements.

They're not new generations.

Yeah, so I think that's why they can also get away with that.

And I think what's happened now is rise and caught up to the point where Intel doesn't have anything ready to go.

So they're on their heels now.

It's funny that you mention that because now that I think about it, kind of coincided with when they stopped doing the tic tac thing, remember how they were like Okay, cool, new architecture, crossing speed, process, bump speed bumps.

And then they kind of just did speed, bump, speed, buggy, bump, watch.

While they thought that AMG wouldn't do anything right, and then now rising happening, they're like, Oh, crap, We gotta get up talk, going really fast right now you have a problem.

Also to is right around the Ivy League era with, like the 37 70 k or Ivy Bridge, used to sing late every lake with Ivy Bridge era and that has well and all that.

They were still 44 Korean threat for foreign threat from like the 2600 k up.

And people always say, Hey, you should give us more cores And I remember there was specifically a conversation that took place that Intel said, We can't there's not enough room.

You can't do it now.

Maybe I'm like 29 a meter or 49 meter whatever.

But the point is, they're suddenly doing it on the same size Substrate were there to give me us.

Now what eight core 16 thread mainstream processors, which is twice what they said they couldn't do.

So it's like where they sandbagging?

Yes, absolutely.

But it took a m d saying, Yeah, you could do it, you money watch, We'll do it, you know, I mean, and then basically, yeah.

So let's talk about the sum of the Q 3 2019 reportings, where they reported a 5% reduction in CCD or where, Which is PC centric.

Yeah.

Uh, yes, anything we deal with unless you're in a data center building servers or something, you are not D.

C.

Do your CCD yet, so it's literally like until Adam all the way up to X platform stuff.

That's all.

CCD.

So?

So there was actually a 5% reduction in revenue, but still $9.7 billion in revenue, even though there's a 5% reduction.

Ironically enough, the data centric stuff is up 4% but only makes up 6.4 billion of their revenue.

But what they also saw was that even though CCG revenue was down, the average cost was up.

Yeah, and so that's how they're.

I think the fact that it's only 5% down might not be the whole story, because they definitely sold less units than 5% reduction in units that their average double price went up.

I wish I could find it right now.

Remember, it used to be around 353 75 for, like a 47 70 cage, 550 bucks or so when this first came out.

So there's a lot of your reduction in reduction if that makes us.

If they were the same price per unit, I think that would be like, easily a double digit reduction.

Another thing about the you know, the company's working in this 3 to 5 year kind of in the future type thing is one thing that they can do that affects the immediate present and in the immediate future rises price changing.

So, you know, I mean, they probably noticed.

Oh, crap.

We're not selling as much stuff, you know?

Hey, when we launched the new ninth gen stuff, let's make the price is a little bit higher, and then, you know, they could do that.

And then it helps kind of mitigate that, and they reduce the price of the 9900 case lightly.

But they also slid in the 1900 ks in there at this price point.

But the proof of the fact that they've kind of been shafting you along in terms of price is specifically with the extreme platform wth E 99.

A t X was $2000 which was double what the 69 80 or whatever It was 15.

I know the 59 80 x, which was a 66 8 core 16 thread was also $1000.

And then they kept that price about $1000 whatever the top tier was.

And then suddenly 99 80 xy rolls around 18 cores, 36 threads to grant.

Well, here we are now 2019.

The mediocre 10 98 e x c, which is exactly the same CPU with a nominal speed bump in a few extra PC AII lanes is now half the price again.

So there's your obvious proof that the pricing and all that was certainly being manipulated, which is no surprise to anyone watching this video right now.

Yeah, but that's one of those things that just kind of shows you that the big Blue giant at that point was just doing whatever it felt that wanted to do because there was no competition until now.

So if you also look at the market share changes, you can see that a M D went in 2016 with market share of about 9% has climbed to 18% CPU market share in the CCG category, which doesn't sound like a lot unless 15.8% of the quiet market and 14.6 overall X 86 market.

That's total every single processor, which is huge.

That is huge issue.

When you were single digit doubled their market share in three years.

And then that's clearly market share taken away from Intel.

Yeah, which doesn't sound like a lot if you still have 22% of the market.

Um, it doesn't seem like you seem like I'm a 88% like ratio on a video is still is still a majority, like right by a lot.

Oh, yeah.

But it's one of those things where if you're an investor, I think you start to get a little bit concerned with the direction of the company at that point.

Now, we can kind of take the data that we've just sort of talked about kind kind of speculate on what you think's gonna happen.

So since we know that there's a solid three years, it takes place between, you know, things that they're currently working on, make it to market because it's not like they're coming out with a new architecture or launching it, you know, in a month Yeah, um, I think 2020.