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MIRANDA GREEN: OK, here we go.
We're going to try again.
Boris's Brexit Map--
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Part Two.
MIRANDA GREEN: So Robert, two weeks ago we
tried to map Boris Johnson's options
to get us through the Brexit morass.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Model of clarity.
MIRANDA GREEN: A model of clarity
as our viewers can see here before us.
Time's been ticking.
It's now only 20 days to the October 31st Brexit deadline,
but a lot has actually changed since we last spoke.
So should we have another go--
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: We'll do this again.
MIRANDA GREEN: --and try to work out what happens next?
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I don't think there's anything in here that
has yet proved to be wrong, but that we
have got more information.
So let's have another go.
MIRANDA GREEN: So let's move on.
Let's move on.
Let's move on.
The things that we definitely do know, the deadline--
31st October.
And then before that, the 19th of October.
So here we are, 11th, 12th.
And then there's the summit on the 16th.
The summit.
So it looks like here we all are we actually
have more of a chance of a deal than no deal,
or certainly than last time we spoke.
It's cheered up a bit because discussions
between the UK and Ireland--
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: It's definitely cheered up
this week.
It looked really grim for most of the week,
and then Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar met in the Wirral
on Thursday.
And to a lot of people's surprise, I think,
the noise out of it were much more positive.
Varadkar said he saw a pathway to a deal, which is obviously
not the same as a deal.
One analyst I saw raised the chances from 5% to 10%.
So we should keep some sense of perspective.
But we will know, I think, within the next 24 to 48 hours
whether the European Union thinks
there is enough movement for it to be worth
starting to negotiate.
So it's far too early at the moment
to say there's going to be a deal,
but it looks a little less unlikely than it
did earlier this week.
But no deal is definitely still alive as a possibility.
MIRANDA GREEN: So sticking to the deal for now,
there's the question of whether Boris Johnson can strike a deal
with the EU that satisfies both the Republic of Ireland
and the Northern Ireland Unionists-- the DUP--
and his own right wing, and possibly tempt across 20 to 30
Labour MPs to support it in the House of Commons.
How on earth do you get a deal that satisfies
all those groups of people?
Because their needs are mutually exclusive.
Or do you think just the pressure of getting further
along this timeline is making people
more likely to compromise?
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Well, I don't know the odds.
Getting a deal that everybody can sign up to
is really difficult, especially a deal
that the Democratic Unionists and the Republic of Ireland
can sign up to.
And we know how hard that is, because we watched the Good
Friday Agreement, and we know how long it took.
And almost by definition, the moment one of those sides
is happy, the other one's unhappy.
So it is very tricky.
We know Boris Johnson talked to Arlene Foster in the DUP
before his meeting with Varadkar.
So whatever concessions he has put forward,
he must at least have talked to the DUP about them
and felt able to go a bit further.
So we shall see.
The numbers remain absolutely horrible and incredibly tight.
And I think there are two dynamics here, one of which
is that there are all these people just
desperate not to leave without a deal,
and don't really want an election where no deal could
become viable at the end of it.
MIRANDA GREEN: Absolutely.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: And then the others who think,
but if we sign up for this deal, it's Brexit, it's happened.
And our hopes for a referendum, our hopes of getting
this reversed are gone.
So the numbers in parliament are horribly tight.
The referendum had an interesting point,
and I know you think this has got more likely.
MIRANDA GREEN: I do.
So one thing that we have left off are groups of people he has
to satisfy actually-- apart from the EU,
which I definitely add--
is also the sort of one nation Tories, who
are extremely concerned that if we get to a general election
where Brexit has not been resolved either
through an election referendum or some other means,
that the Tory Party manifesto will make it possible
for them to claim after the election
that they have a mandate for no deal.
So one of the things that's happened since we last spoke
is that this group has become much more vocal
in trying to put pressure on Number 10
on the subject of no deal.
The other thing that I think is really interesting
is that the chances of all of these groups in Parliament
who essentially don't agree on what should be in a Brexit deal
might be persuaded to sign up to it
and at least pass it on condition that it's then
put to a referendum.
And I think the chances of that have gone up.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Before we get to the referendum,
can we just stick on this for a minute?
Because I think there has been a lot of briefing and counter
briefing.
This is one of the really important things
is the noises of.
And [INAUDIBLE] and the one nation Tories, up to 50 of them
said they couldn't support a Conservative manifesto
in a general election, which essentially the party ran
on no deal.
And the reason they said that is because if it
is a no deal into a general election,
the Brexit Party have made lots of noises saying they
can't support the Conservatives unless it's no deal,
or as they also like to call it, clean Brexit.
They have a flair for phraseology.
Whether these people really mean it-- thus far,
the one nation Tories that have stayed in the party I've
been a tower of jelly.
So whether they would really go through with it, I don't know.
I think they are still desperate to get a deal
over the line, almost any deal.
Which is why I think the referendum point comes back
into play.
MIRANDA GREEN: So the one nation Tories
are really worried that you'd end up with a Tory Party
standing on a platform that even if it wasn't promising no deal,
would commit them to it, facilitate it.
And would mean that if they won a general election, won
a majority or even the largest party again, they could say,
we have a mandate to do this.
We have a mandate to crash Britain out.
I've also spoken to some of the Labour MPs who,
although they are sort of softening their red lines as it
were, they've started to say, so long as the EU is happy,
we're happy.
Which is quite interesting in and of itself, I think.
But those Labour rebels are also really worried about the idea
of having a general election in which it turns into a proxy
Brexit referendum where people vote on lots of other issues,
and you end up with no deal.
Because these Labour rebels, they might be willing
to support a deal.
They sure as hell are not willing to support a no deal
Brexit.
So you've got these--
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Of course, then they're going to lose.
MIRANDA GREEN: Well, that's right, exactly.
They wouldn't be worried if they thought Jeremy Corbyn was going
to sweep the board, clearly.
But I think the other intervention this week
that's been interesting is Tony Blair,
the former Labour prime minister, who's always--
he has always, we should say, been
campaigning for a second referendum on Brexit.
Because he wants to just have remain on the ballot paper
and for remain to prevail.
But he made a very good point, which is actually
a general election where Brexit is just one
ingredient in the manifestos.
It's a very unclear mandate, and it's not really a just the way
to settle the problem.
So I think the voices that are saying--
and saying in Labour circles--
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Let's put this here.
Sorry to interrupt.
Let's put this here.
He's come back from Brussels with some kind
of deal, which he's putting to the House of Commons.
He's got to get it voted through--
approved-- otherwise we're back into no deal territory.
So he's put his great deal to the Commons.
Boris's deal.
This is why you do all the writing,
because even I can't read my own handwriting.
MIRANDA GREEN: Can we just let me write vote here?
Vote.
Vote in House of Commons.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: So how does this happen?
He comes back.
He's got Ireland squared, he thinks
he's got the DUP on board, he thinks he's got a chance.
We can discuss that.
He thinks he's got a chance.
So what's your premise about how it goes through from here?
MIRANDA GREEN: From a vote where he manages to get it through--
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: No, he's brought it to the House.
We haven't had the vote yet.
MIRANDA GREEN: There'll be all of these calculations, as we've
said, as to the advisability of voting for a deal
that you might not be 100% happy with.
Clearly groups like the SNP and the Lib Dems
will always vote against anyway.
But the rest of these groups will
be sort of minded to give it support
if they think that the next stage is possibly
a second referendum.
If a condition of passing it is then put to the people.
Clearly the Labour leadership and most of the Conservative
Party have always been dead set against another referendum.
So the dynamic would have to change quite significantly.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: But it is now Labour policy.
MIRANDA GREEN: Well, what's Labour policy and what
the Labour leadership want are not necessarily one
and the same thing, because they've been backed
into a corner.
But yes, you're right.
And a lot of the Labour MPs would be happy with that.
Of course, it might still go down.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Last time the referendum
was voted on in the Commons, it lost by 12 votes.
and with 60 odd people abstaining.
So that means theoretically the numbers are there.
We know that the SNP want a referendum,
we know the Liberal Democrats want a referendum, the Welsh
Nationalists, the Greens, a spattering of Conservatives--
we don't know how many.
MIRANDA GREEN: But them shifting.
Some of them are shifting.
Even Ken Clarke-- such a significant touchstone
figure in this, that he's even been mooted
as a caretaker prime minister-- he has started to say,
we might have to have a second referendum.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: But I think it's probably
fair to say that there's nobody still in the Conservative Party
voting for a referendum.
So it's only that group of 21 that are possible--
it's 20 now--
who are possible referendum voters
from the Conservative side.
And not all of them--
MIRANDA GREEN: But doesn't that depend--
doesn't that depend if it becomes an official gambit
of the governments?
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: To attach the referendum to the deal?
But that's not going to happen, is it?
MIRANDA GREEN: If it's the only way to [INAUDIBLE]..
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I don't think Boris Johnson could attach
a referendum to the deal.
You don't know, but if he thinks he's got the votes,
then he's got the DUP.
If he has the DUP, he has reduced the hardline Brexit ERG
rebels to a sliver.
So let's say they're under 10.
We said there's eight of them.
MIRANDA GREEN: These work in concert, these two.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: So let's say there's eight of them.
He's got them.
That means he needs about 10 or a dozen Labour rebels to get it
over the line, probably.
And he's also pulled back most of his rebellious Tories.
That to me is the key question, because a large chunk
of the rebellious Tories will come back
into the fold to vote for a deal,
because they were only against no deal.
But some of them won't.
MIRANDA GREEN: Quite a lot of them voted for the May deal
as well.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: That's right.
Absolutely.
All of them, I think, actually.
Maybe [INAUDIBLE]
So of course, some of those Labour rebels don't like
a referendum.
They don't want to back a referendum.
But they also don't like the deal
that Boris might bring back because it's
got fewer protections for workers' rights,
environmental regulation, and so on.
But you think that an amendment would be attached to this vote,
and they could actually make it contingent on a referendum?
MIRANDA GREEN: I think it's possible,
because if you look back at all those awful evenings
where we had to sit through the indicative votes earlier
in the year, these compromises, they all went down--
as the hard Brexiters keep liking to remind us--
that Parliament failed to agree on an alternative path forward.
But they didn't go down by very much.
And I think the dynamics could shift quite significantly.
Also, I think, as I've said, it's significant that
the Labour rebels keep saying now if it satisfies the EU,
it satisfies us.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Yeah.
So it's possible.
MIRANDA GREEN: I think it is possible.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: But it's also possible he could just
get it through.
MIRANDA GREEN: Yes, it is possible he could just
get it through.
In which case that would then be off.
And we'd be probably going to a general election,
on the basis of which Boris can say--
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: He's in quite a strong position
then, isn't he?
MIRANDA GREEN: I've cut through the Gordian knot of Brexit.
I can now unify the country.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: In that outcome,
he's in quite a good place.
Yes, I think that's right.
So if he comes back with--
if the deal doesn't happen then, then we're here.
He's failed to get a deal.
We've hit the deadline for the Benn Act, which
means he is required to seek an extension,
if the Europe Union hasn't really just unilaterally
offered it earlier.
But he's required to seek an extension, which
he doesn't want to do.
That's where we get into some very, very
interesting territory.
There's been some fantastic briefings
out of what we have to call a Downing Street aide--
Cummings-- and who [INAUDIBLE] all kinds of things such as he
could refuse to leave office, he could challenge the queen
to sack him.
Some really extraordinary stuff.
MIRANDA GREEN: Yes, it's quite fun.
I think it's fun enough that we should put in a little crown.
Boris--
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: King Boris
MIRANDA GREEN: --versus the queen.
That's supposed to b the queen there, the crown.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: We don't believe this, do we?
Don't believe that he's going to defy the queen to sack him,
or defy the Benn Act.
MIRANDA GREEN: These are very, very extreme proposals
that going to cling on in Downing Street,
even if the Constitution says they should be out.
I'm no constitutional lawyer, but it
seems like a threat rather than a promise,
as my grandma used to say.
And I think it's sabre rattling essentially.
But I think the reason they feel confident in upping
the ante in that way is that they think they're
on very strong territory anyway if the vote goes down
and they fail, because they can then
go to their precious general election at that point on what
they think is this extremely powerful platform of,
we tried, we failed.
All of these remainers, the courts, the MPs,
the opposition parties trying to gang up on us.
They've tried to frustrate your Brexit.
We're the only people you can trust.
And then when then it gets very worrying for all
these other groups, including the one nation Tories.
Because it would be a mandate for no deal.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: So I want to put another idea to you.
I do think that the stuff about, we're going to defy the queen,
it reminded me of that character in Just William who said,
if she'd hold her breath until she passed out.
That's what it's reminding me of,
these absurd, empty threats.
But I think that's another thing.
One of the things Boris Johnson said,
there's going to be a special sitting
of the House of Commons on a Saturday
to thrash everything out.
I think if he comes back with no deal,
that special sitting could see a separate motion
for a referendum not attached to any specific proposal.
But rather like the one that they
voted on in April which simply says,
whatever position we end up with in Brexit,
needs to be confirmed by a second vote.
I think that could be passed in the Commons
at that point, which is why I think your instincts about why
the referendum is more likely.
I agree with them.
I think that's the moment at which all these people--
the one nation Tories, the Labour Party,
all the other parties--
suddenly say, look, we're screaming towards the rocks
here.
We could be going to an election.
And what if Boris wins and then no deal is really back
on the cards?
Although if he were to win, it also raises the possibility
that then with the no deal mandate
he goes back and is able to get a better deal.
But who knows?
I think at that moment, that's when
they try to push the referendum legislation.
Of course, any legislation can be
overturned by a new government.
But it might be tricky.
It would also suit the Labour Party,
because it gets Brexit off of the electoral map when
the election gets held.
And it makes Boris Johnson look much weaker.
MIRANDA GREEN: So the thing we haven't discussed
though is that if he is forced to ask
for an extension from the EU, that
could be quite a long extension.
There have been some rumours that the EU might be minded
to say, well, what's the point of giving the UK another few
weeks?
They're really in such a mess.
We need to give them a decent chunk of time.
And that potentially would be enough time
to hold a referendum.
Although you'd have to speed up the whole process.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I think this is difficult,
because the point is a very, very short extension is just
enough time for a general election in effect.
If you give a--
and we're talking about the end of January, [INAUDIBLE]----
if they're talking about the end of June,
which has been mooted--
MIRANDA GREEN: Or the spring.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: OK, or spring.
The problem is this--
I think you still have to have the election rather
in the referendum, because the country's still
run by Boris Johnson, and he doesn't want a referendum.
MIRANDA GREEN: And he has no majority.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: And he has no majority, no queen's speech,
no budget.
It's a completely preposterous thing.
And he, at the same time, is not interested in negotiating
the kind of deal that these people want.
So even the June extension I don't think--
I think it makes it even harder for the Labour Party to fight
an election--
to resist an election.
And so I still see it that whatever kind of extension
you get, I don't know how you can avoid this for that
much longer.
Unless, to go back to our original drawing
of the other week, unless you can
find the numbers to put a different government in place
in the House of Commons.
I don't see how you avoid that, even
if you manage to put that through the house
before you get there.
MIRANDA GREEN: Well also, even if on the off chance
you could put together this caretaker government, that's
not a sustainable government.
And in fact, it's been explicitly said
that it would only be for a short period of time
to call a referendum or an election.
So you couldn't limp on till next summer with a caretaker
government.
That would be absolutely impossible.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I can't see it either.
But it does require the Labour Party to follow through
and say, we would have an election straight after
we've got the delay.
And there are increasingly loud and important voices
in the Labour Party telling Jeremy Corbyn it's not just
backbenchers.
We know that members the shadow cabinet--
John McDonnell, Emily Thornberry--
are voicing concerns about this.
So they're in a bit of a bind too.
The one thing that is really hard to say,
really hard to call, is if any of this column comes right--
whether it's his deal, or a referendum vote--
what impact that then has on a general election.
Because lots of parties have built their strategy
around Brexit being a fundamental part,
and this happening before Brexit.
Not least the Liberal Democrats, of course.
And if it happens after, that's a whole new ball game.
MIRANDA GREEN: So it if it was me designing the way out,
I'd say, why not have a general election and a referendum
on the same day?
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Interesting.
MIRANDA GREEN: And then you separate--
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: But what's the referendum on?
MIRANDA GREEN: Well, the referendum
is one of these compromises where everybody with regret
passes the deal on the condition that it's
put back to the people.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: But do you think if--
the one problem with the referendum--
MIRANDA GREEN: Because that forces--
the reason why, as a voter, I would like that to happen
is then you get to make up your mind
based on the other issues of, do you want to be in power,
and how you feel on Brexit.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Yeah.
So if you're a Labour Brexiter or a Conservative remainer,
you can have the best of both worlds.
But if that referendum terms are decided before election--
and we know it's not a quick thing to get a referendum up
and running--
then a lot of Conservatives will insist on no deal being
in that referendum set of choices.
So that makes it more complicated.
They will probably try to resist votes for 16-year-olds,
although I guess if you've got the majority
to force a referendum into the equation,
you've probably got the majority to force the terms of it.
MIRANDA GREEN: There we go.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: OK, I'm literally now more confused
than I was when we started.
MIRANDA GREEN: I'm not.
I think I've just solved the Brexit conundrum.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: You solved it.
So it's a referendum on the same day as a general election.
MIRANDA GREEN: And an election on the same day
having passed a compromise deal.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: What would happen if the general election
returned Boris Johnson and no deal a manifesto
without having voted to stay in?
MIRANDA GREEN: No, because you take
Brexit out of the manifestos by decree of me.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Oh, there's still the government to review.
OK, I think it's Queen Miranda, then.
MIRANDA GREEN: Excellent.
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I'd vote for that.
MIRANDA GREEN: If called upon to serve.