So let's start talking about that.

讓我們來聊聊它

I wanted to give you current picture of the economy.

我想讓你們對目前的經濟狀況有個概念

That's what I have behind myself.

在我身後這個

(Laughter)

(笑聲）

But of course what we have to remember is this.

當然，我們要記得這個

And what you have to think about is,

然後有意識知道,

when you're dancing in the flames, what's next?

當情況危急的時後， 下一步怎麼做

So what I'm going to try to do in the next 17 and a half minutes

所以在接下來的17分半中我要做的

is I'm going to talk first about the flames --

是先來談談現在的危機--

where we are in the economy --

目前的經濟狀況--

and then I'm going to take three trends

讓後我將用三個

that have taken place at TED over the last 25 years

在TED過去25年裡提到的

and that will take place in this conference

然後會出現在這個會談裡的趨勢

and I will try and bring them together.

我會試著將它們統整

And I will try and give you a sense of what the ultimate reboot looks like.

然後給各位一個最終復甦情形的概況

Those three trends are

這三個趨勢是

the ability to engineer cells,

細胞工程

the ability to engineer tissues

組織工程

and robots.

還有機器人工程

And somehow it will all make sense.

大家會看到為什麼

But anyway, let's start with the economy.

不過我們先從談經濟開始

There's a couple of really big problems that are still sitting there.

有一些很大的問題還是存在

One is leverage.

一個是經濟槓桿作用

And the problem with leverage is

然後它的問題是

it makes the U.S. financial system look like this.

讓美國財務體系變這樣

(Laughter)

(笑聲）

So, a normal commercial bank has nine to 10 times leverage.

所以，一般的商業銀行十次裡會有九次會受到這個影響

That means for every dollar you deposit it loans out about nine or 10.

這表示你每存1塊錢銀行可以貸款出9到10塊

A normal investment bank is not a deposit bank,

在一個普通的投資銀行而非存款銀行

it's an investment bank;

這是投資銀行

it has 15 to 20 times.

可貸款出15到20倍的錢

It turns out that B of A in September had 32 times.

結果顯示美國銀行在九月份是32倍

And your friendly Citibank had 47 times.

花旗銀行是47倍

Oops.

哇

That means every bad loan goes bad 47 times over.

這表示每個壞帳會有47倍的影響

And that, of course, is the reason why all of you

然後，當然，這是為什麼在坐各位

are making such generous and wonderful donations

做出慷慨的捐獻

to these nice folks.

給這個演講

And as you think about that,

當你想到這裡

You've got to wonder: so what do banks have in store for you now?

你一定好奇：那 (錢都貸款出去了）銀行現在幫你們存了什麼

(Laughter)

(笑聲）

It ain't pretty.

情況不妙

The government, meanwhile, has been acting like Santa Claus.

政府同時, 一直在扮演聖誕老人的角色

We all love Santa Claus, right?

我們都喜歡聖誕老人對吧?

But the problem with Santa Clause is,

但問題是

if you look at the mandatory spending of what these folks have been doing,

如果你看到這些人做的事所用到的強制開銷

and promising folks,

還有他們給的承諾

it turned out that in 1967, 38 percent was mandatory spending

結果變成在1967年, 百分之38是強制開銷

on what we call "entitlements."

用在我們所謂的"權益“上

And then by 2007 it was 68 percent.

然後到了2007變成百分之68

And we weren't supposed to run into 100 percent until about 2030.

在2030年，開銷不應該會變成百分之百

Except we've been so busy giving away a trillion here, a trillion there,

這邊一下用了百萬兆， 那邊一下又用了百萬兆

that we've brought that date of reckoning forward

所以將預估結果提前

to about 2017.

到2017年

And we thought we were going to be able to lay these debts off on our kids,

我們認為可以有能力不讓孩子承擔這樣的債務

but, guess what?

但是猜猜看

We're going to start to pay them.

我們已經開始在還債了

And the problem with this stuff is, now that the bill's come due,

問題現在又變成，賬單要到期了

it turns out Santa isn't quite as cute when it's summertime.

而聖誕老人在夏季不是那麼可愛

Right?

對不對？

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Here's some advice from one of the largest investors in the United States.

這是美國其中一個最大的投資家提出的一些建議

This guy runs the China Investment Corporation.

這個人經營中國的投資集團

He is the main buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds.

他是美國國庫卷的主要買者

And he gave an interview in December.

在12月時接受訪問

Here's his first bit of advice.

這是他給的第一個建議

And here's his second bit of advice.

這是第二個

And, by the way,

順道一提

the Chinese Prime Minister reiterated this at Davos last Sunday.

中國國務總理在上星期日的達沃斯也重述這些要點

This stuff is getting serious enough

情況開始不樂觀

that if we don't start paying attention to the deficit,

如果我們不開始重視缺失

we're going to end up losing the dollar.

我們最後會造成虧損

And then all bets are off.

光這個就會帶來嚴重的後果

Let me show you what it looks like.

讓大家看看情形會怎麼樣

I think I can safely say

我敢說

that I'm the only trillionaire in this room.

我是目前這邊的唯一百萬兆富翁

This is an actual bill.

這是個的紙鈔

And it's 10 trilliion dollars.

價值10千萬兆美金

The only problem with this bill is it's not really worth very much.

問題是它並不真的直那麼多錢

That was eight bucks last week, four bucks this week,

上星期它值8塊, 這星期4塊

a buck next week.

下星期只剩1塊了

And that's what happens to currencies when you don't stand behind them.

這就是當我們無法支撐匯率時會發生的情況

So the next time somebody as cute as this shows up on your doorstep,

所以下次有這麼可愛的人出現在你家門口

and sometimes this creature's called Chrysler and sometimes Ford and sometimes ... whatever you want --

有時候它叫做克萊斯勒或是福特或有時後...隨你喜歡叫什麼--

you've just got to say no.

你只能拒絕

And you've got to start banishing a word that's called "entitlement."

然後你必須開始不在用“權益”這個字

And there reason we have to do that in the short term

需要這麼做，在短期來看

is because we have just run out of cash.

是因為我們沒錢了

If you look at the federal budget, this is what it looks like.

如果你看聯邦政府預算，就是這個樣子

The orange slice is what's discretionary.

橘色部份是自由資金

Everything else is mandated.

其他都是強制資金

It makes no difference if we cut out the bridges to Alaska in the overall scheme of things.

就算斷去通往阿拉斯加的橋整個情形也不會改變

So what we have to start thinking about doing

所以我們需要開始著手的

is capping our medical spending

是限制醫療支出

because that's a monster that's simply going to eat the entire budget.

因為它是個會吞噬整個預算的怪物

We've got to start thinking about asking people

我們必須開始

to retire a little bit later.

要求大家晚點退休

If you're 60 to 65 you retire on time.

60到65歲退休就差不多

Your 401(k) just got nailed.

退休金受的影響就不大

If you're 50 to 60 we want you to work two years more.

如果你是在50到60歲, 那希望你可以在多工做兩年

If you're under 50 we want you to work four more years.

如果你還不到50歲，希望你可以多工做四年

The reason why that's reasonable is,

為什麼這麼說合理是因為，

when your grandparents were given Social Security,

當你的祖父母得到社會保障時

they got it at 65 and were expected to check out at 68.

他們大概65歲開始領到68歲

68 is young today.

現在68歲算年輕的了

We've also got to cut the military about three percent a year.

我們也需要縮減一年3％的軍用預算

We've got to limit other mandatory spending.

我們必須限制一些強制開銷

We've got to quit borrowing as much

我們必須停止這麼多的借貸

because otherwise the interest is going to eat that whole pie.

不然的話, 利息會佔據整個趨勢

And we've got to end up with a smaller government.

然後剩下小規模的政府

And if we don't start changing this trend line,

如果不開始改變這個趨勢

we are going to lose the dollar

經濟就會受到影響

and start to look like Iceland.

變得像冰島一樣

I got what you're thinking.

我知道你們在想什麼

This is going to happen when hell freezes over.

這一切除非地獄凍結了才會發生

But let me remind you this December it did snow in Vegas.

但是讓我提醒你, 拉斯維加斯今年十二月的確下雪了

(Laughter)

(笑聲）

Here's what happens if you don't address this stuff.

如果你們再不關注這些議題，以下這樣的事就會發生

So, Japan had a fiscal real estate crisis

日本在80年代的時後

back in the late '80s.

發生過地產財務危機

And its 225 largest companies today

現今225間最大的公司

are worth one quarter of what they were 18 years ago.

價值只有十八年前的四分之一

We don't fix this now,

現在我們不重視問題

how would you like to see a Dow 3,500 in 2026?

你想在2026年看見道瓊指數3,500嗎？

Because that's the consequence of not dealing with this stuff.

因為那就是現在不重視這些問題的後果

And unless you want this person

除非你要這個人

to not just become the CFO of Florida, but the United States,

不只是當佛羅里達的財務長，還是整個美國的財務長

we'd better deal with this stuff.

我們現在最好開始重視這些問題

That's the short term. That's the flame part.

這是短期來看. 比較棘手的部份

That's the financial crisis.

財務方面的危機

Now, right behind the financial crisis there's a second and bigger wave

現在， 跟在財務危機後面的第二波更大的浪潮

that we need to talk about.

我們必須來談談

That wave is much larger, much more powerful,

這個問題更強殺傷力更大

and that's of course the wave of technology.

當然，就是科技浪潮

And what's really important in this stuff is,

這個重要的地方是

as we cut, we also have to grow.

我們縮減預算的同時也必須要成長

Among other things, because startup companies

別的先不提，新起的公司

are .02 percent of U.S. GDP investment

佔據美國國民所得投資的 0.02％

and they're about 17.8 percent of output.

帶來17.8%的出產

It's groups like that in this room that generate the future of the U.S. economy.

像一匹帶領美國未來經濟的人聚集在一起

And that's what we've got to keep growing.

而這就是我們必須繼續成長的方向

We don't have to keep growing this bridges to nowhere.

我們不必毫無目標的發展

So let's bring a romance novelist into this conversation.

所以現在我們把浪漫新主義者帶進來

And that's where these three trends come together.

這就是三波趨勢匯集的地方

That's where the ability to engineer microbes,

微生物工程

the ability to engineer tissues,

組織工程

and the ability to engineer robots

和機器人工程

begin to lead to a reboot.

將帶領復甦

And let me recap some of the stuff you've seen.

讓我重述一下你們看過的東西

Craig Venter showed up last year

去年Craig Venter來過

and showed you the first fully programmable cell that acts like hardware

展示給大家看到第一個可以完整編程, 運作起來像是電腦硬體的細胞

where you can insert DNA and have it boot up as a different species.

你可以植入DNA, 並將它驅動行成不同的生物

In parallel, the folks at MIT

在這同時，MIT的人

have been building a standard registry of biological parts.

已經開始建立生物器官的標準制式

So think of it as a Radio Shack for biology.

把它想成是給生物學的Radio Shack (美國電子物件零售商）

You can go out and get your proteins, your RNA, your DNA, whatever.

你可以出去買到自己的蛋白質，RNA, DNA, 等等

And start building stuff.

然後開始組裝你要的東西

In 2006 they brought together high school students and college students

在2006年他們聚集高中生和大專院校學生

and started to build these little odd creatures.

開始做這些小生物

They just happened to be alive instead of circuit boards.

它們活起來了而並非只是電路板

Here was one of the first things they built.

這是其中一個他們做的東西

So, cells have this cycle.

細胞有個循環

First they don't grow.

一開始它們不會長

Then they grow exponentially.

然後就一下長很快

Then they stop growing.

然後就不會停止生長了

Graduate students wanted a way of telling which stage they were in.

研究生想找到方法知道細胞的成長階段

So they engineered these cells

所以他們做了這樣的細胞工程

so that when they're growing in the exponential phase,

當細胞急速成長的時後

they would smell like wintergreen.

會聞起來像冬青樹

And when they stopped growing they would smell like bananas.

當停止生長的時後會聞起來像香蕉

And you could tell very easily when your experiment was working

然後實驗者就可以很容易知道哪個實驗

and wasn't, and where it was in the phase.

是否成功了，然後在什麼階段

This got a bit more complicated two years later.

這個兩年之後開始變得複雜一些

21 countries came together. Dozens of teams.

21個國家，很多的團體聚集在一起

They started competing.

開始互相比賽

The team from Rice University started to engineer the substance in red wine

從Rice University 開始培養改造

that makes red wine good for you

紅酒裡對人體有益處的物質

into beer.

轉到啤酒裡

So you take resveratrol and you put it into beer.

所以你可以提煉出葡萄中的抗氧化物質然後放到啤酒裡

Of course, one of the judges is wandering by, and he goes,

當然，其中一個競賽評審經過就說

"Wow! Cancer-fighting beer! There is a God."

"哇, 抗癌的啤酒！ 上帝真的存在！"

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

The team from Taiwan was a little bit more ambitious.

從台灣來的團隊比較有野心

They tried to engineer bacterias in such a way

他們想將微生物變成

that they would act as your kidneys.

可以有腎臟的功能

Four years ago, I showed you this picture.

四年前, 我讓你們看過這個圖片

And people oohed and ahhed,

大家好驚奇

because Cliff Tabin had been able to grow an extra wing on a chicken.

因為Cliff Tabin 可以讓雞多長出翅膀

And that was very cool stuff back then.

在當時是很酷的東西

But now moving from bacterial engineering to tissue engineering,

但是現在從微生物工程道組織工程

let me show you what's happened in that period of time.

我讓大家看看這個階段發生了什麼

Two years ago, you saw this creature.

兩年前，你們看到這個生物

An almost-extinct animal from Xochimilco, Mexico

一個從墨西哥 Xochimilco 差不多絕種的動物

called an axolotl

叫做 axolotl（白化六角恐龍 / 墨西哥蠑螈）

that can re-generate its limbs.

牠可以自生臂膀

You can freeze half its heart. It regrows.

你把牠一半的心臟冷凍起來, 它會長出來

You can freeze half the brain. It regrows.

你把牠一半的腦子冷凍起來，它會長出來

It's almost like leaving Congress.

很像國會

(Laughter)

(笑聲）

But now, you don't have to have the animal itself to regenerate,

但是現在，你不須要這樣的動物來自我恢復

because you can build cloned mice molars in petri dishes.

因為你可以在培養皿中複製老鼠的臼齒

And, of course if you can build mice molars in petri dishes,

當然，如果你可以在培養皿中複製老鼠的臼齒

you can grow human molars in petri dishes.

人類的牙齒也可以

This should not surprise you, right?

你們應該不覺得有什麼驚奇的對吧?

I mean, you're born with no teeth.

我意思是說, 你天生就沒牙齒

You give away all your teeth to the tooth fairy.

牙齒長出來後都給牙齒精靈

You regrow a set of teeth.

重長新的牙齒

But then if you lose one of those second set of teeth, they don't regrow,

但是如果第二匹長出的牙齒掉了，它們就不會再長了

unless, if you're a lawyer.

除非, 你是律師

(Laughter)

(笑聲）

But, of course, for most of us,

但是，當然，對大部份其他人來說

we know how to grow teeth, and therefore we can take adult stem teeth,

我們知道牙齒怎麼長，所以可以取成人的牙齒幹細胞

put them on a biodegradable mold, regrow a tooth,

放入生物培養皿重新長牙

and simply implant it.

然後植牙

And we can do it with other things.

我們也可以在別的東西上做同樣的事

So, a Spanish woman who was dying of TB had a donor trachea,

所以，假設一個因肺結核生命垂危的西班牙裔的女子得到一個捐贈的氣管

they took all the cells off the trachea,

他們將氣管的細胞全部取出

they spraypainted her stem cells on to that cartilage.

然後在軟骨上鋪上她的幹細胞

She regrew her own trachea,

她自生自己的氣管

and 72 hours later it was implanted.

72小時後植入了

She's now running around with her kids.

她現在快樂地和孩子們玩樂

This is going on in Tony Atala's lab in Wake Forest

這是在Tony Atala於Wake Forest的實驗室發生的

where he is regrowing ears for injured soldiers,

在那邊他幫忙受傷的士兵重生耳朵

and he's also regrowing bladders.

也在做膀胱的生長

So there are now nine women walking around Boston

現今有九位女士在Boston

with regrown bladders,

有著重新生長的膀胱

which is much more pleasant than walking around with a whole bunch of plastic bags

比下半生都要帶著塑膠袋子 (尿帶）四處走動

for the rest of your life.

感覺好太多了

This is kind of getting boring, right?

開始有點無聊了嗎？

I mean, you understand where this story's going.

我是說，你知道故事演變的方向

But, I mean it gets more interesting.