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  • Everybody talks about happiness these days.

  • I had somebody count the number of books

  • with "happiness" in the title published in the last five years

  • and they gave up after about 40, and there were many more.

  • There is a huge wave of interest in happiness,

  • among researchers.

  • There is a lot of happiness coaching.

  • Everybody would like to make people happier.

  • But in spite of all this flood of work,

  • there are several cognitive traps

  • that sort of make it almost impossible to think straight

  • about happiness.

  • And my talk today will be mostly about these cognitive traps.

  • This applies to laypeople thinking about their own happiness,

  • and it applies to scholars thinking about happiness,

  • because it turns out we're just as messed up as anybody else is.

  • The first of these traps

  • is a reluctance to admit complexity.

  • It turns out that the word "happiness"

  • is just not a useful word anymore,

  • because we apply it to too many different things.

  • I think there is one particular meaning to which we might restrict it,

  • but by and large,

  • this is something that we'll have to give up

  • and we'll have to adopt the more complicated view

  • of what well-being is.

  • The second trap is a confusion between experience and memory;

  • basically, it's between being happy in your life,

  • and being happy about your life

  • or happy with your life.

  • And those are two very different concepts,

  • and they're both lumped in the notion of happiness.

  • And the third is the focusing illusion,

  • and it's the unfortunate fact that we can't think about any circumstance

  • that affects well-being

  • without distorting its importance.

  • I mean, this is a real cognitive trap.

  • There's just no way of getting it right.

  • Now, I'd like to start with an example

  • of somebody who had a question-and-answer session

  • after one of my lectures reported a story,

  • and that was a story --

  • He said he'd been listening to a symphony,

  • and it was absolutely glorious music

  • and at the very end of the recording,

  • there was a dreadful screeching sound.

  • And then he added, really quite emotionally,

  • it ruined the whole experience.

  • But it hadn't.

  • What it had ruined were the memories of the experience.

  • He had had the experience.

  • He had had 20 minutes of glorious music.

  • They counted for nothing

  • because he was left with a memory;

  • the memory was ruined,

  • and the memory was all that he had gotten to keep.

  • What this is telling us, really,

  • is that we might be thinking of ourselves and of other people

  • in terms of two selves.

  • There is an experiencing self,

  • who lives in the present

  • and knows the present,

  • is capable of re-living the past,

  • but basically it has only the present.

  • It's the experiencing self that the doctor approaches --

  • you know, when the doctor asks,

  • "Does it hurt now when I touch you here?"

  • And then there is a remembering self,

  • and the remembering self is the one that keeps score,

  • and maintains the story of our life,

  • and it's the one that the doctor approaches

  • in asking the question,

  • "How have you been feeling lately?"

  • or "How was your trip to Albania?" or something like that.

  • Those are two very different entities,

  • the experiencing self and the remembering self,

  • and getting confused between them is part of the mess

  • about the notion of happiness.

  • Now, the remembering self

  • is a storyteller.

  • And that really starts with a basic response of our memories --

  • it starts immediately.

  • We don't only tell stories when we set out to tell stories.

  • Our memory tells us stories,

  • that is, what we get to keep from our experiences

  • is a story.

  • And let me begin with one example.

  • This is an old study.

  • Those are actual patients undergoing a painful procedure.

  • I won't go into detail. It's no longer painful these days,

  • but it was painful when this study was run in the 1990s.

  • They were asked to report on their pain every 60 seconds.

  • Here are two patients,

  • those are their recordings.

  • And you are asked, "Who of them suffered more?"

  • And it's a very easy question.

  • Clearly, Patient B suffered more --

  • his colonoscopy was longer,

  • and every minute of pain that Patient A had,

  • Patient B had, and more.

  • But now there is another question:

  • "How much did these patients think they suffered?"

  • And here is a surprise.

  • The surprise is that Patient A

  • had a much worse memory of the colonoscopy

  • than Patient B.

  • The stories of the colonoscopies were different,

  • and because a very critical part of the story is how it ends.

  • And neither of these stories is very inspiring or great --

  • but one of them is this distinct ... (Laughter)

  • but one of them is distinctly worse than the other.

  • And the one that is worse

  • is the one where pain was at its peak at the very end;

  • it's a bad story.

  • How do we know that?

  • Because we asked these people after their colonoscopy,

  • and much later, too,

  • "How bad was the whole thing, in total?"

  • And it was much worse for A than for B, in memory.

  • Now this is a direct conflict

  • between the experiencing self and the remembering self.

  • From the point of view of the experiencing self,

  • clearly, B had a worse time.

  • Now, what you could do with Patient A,

  • and we actually ran clinical experiments,

  • and it has been done, and it does work --

  • you could actually extend the colonoscopy of Patient A

  • by just keeping the tube in without jiggling it too much.

  • That will cause the patient

  • to suffer, but just a little

  • and much less than before.

  • And if you do that for a couple of minutes,

  • you have made the experiencing self

  • of Patient A worse off,

  • and you have the remembering self of Patient A

  • a lot better off,

  • because now you have endowed Patient A

  • with a better story

  • about his experience.

  • What defines a story?

  • And that is true of the stories

  • that memory delivers for us,

  • and it's also true of the stories that we make up.

  • What defines a story are changes,

  • significant moments and endings.

  • Endings are very, very important

  • and, in this case, the ending dominated.

  • Now, the experiencing self

  • lives its life continuously.

  • It has moments of experience, one after the other.

  • And you can ask: What happens to these moments?

  • And the answer is really straightforward:

  • They are lost forever.

  • I mean, most of the moments of our life --

  • and I calculated, you know, the psychological present

  • is said to be about three seconds long;

  • that means that, you know,

  • in a life there are about 600 million of them;

  • in a month, there are about 600,000 --

  • most of them don't leave a trace.

  • Most of them are completely ignored

  • by the remembering self.

  • And yet, somehow you get the sense

  • that they should count,

  • that what happens during these moments of experience

  • is our life.

  • It's the finite resource that we're spending

  • while we're on this earth.

  • And how to spend it

  • would seem to be relevant,

  • but that is not the story

  • that the remembering self keeps for us.

  • So we have the remembering self

  • and the experiencing self,

  • and they're really quite distinct.

  • The biggest difference between them

  • is in the handling of time.

  • From the point of view of the experiencing self,

  • if you have a vacation,

  • and the second week is just as good as the first,

  • then the two-week vacation

  • is twice as good as the one-week vacation.

  • That's not the way it works at all for the remembering self.

  • For the remembering self, a two-week vacation

  • is barely better than the one-week vacation

  • because there are no new memories added.

  • You have not changed the story.

  • And in this way,

  • time is actually the critical variable

  • that distinguishes a remembering self

  • from an experiencing self;

  • time has very little impact on the story.

  • Now, the remembering self does more

  • than remember and tell stories.

  • It is actually the one that makes decisions

  • because, if you have a patient who has had, say,

  • two colonoscopies with two different surgeons

  • and is deciding which of them to choose,

  • then the one that chooses

  • is the one that has the memory that is less bad,

  • and that's the surgeon that will be chosen.

  • The experiencing self

  • has no voice in this choice.

  • We actually don't choose between experiences,

  • we choose between memories of experiences.

  • And even when we think about the future,

  • we don't think of our future normally as experiences.

  • We think of our future

  • as anticipated memories.

  • And basically you can look at this,

  • you know, as a tyranny of the remembering self,

  • and you can think of the remembering self

  • sort of dragging the experiencing self

  • through experiences that

  • the experiencing self doesn't need.

  • I have that sense that

  • when we go on vacations

  • this is very frequently the case;

  • that is, we go on vacations,

  • to a very large extent,

  • in the service of our remembering self.

  • And this is a bit hard to justify I think.

  • I mean, how much do we consume our memories?

  • That is one of the explanations

  • that is given for the dominance

  • of the remembering self.

  • And when I think about that, I think about a vacation

  • we had in Antarctica a few years ago,

  • which was clearly the best vacation I've ever had,

  • and I think of it relatively often,

  • relative to how much I think of other vacations.

  • And I probably have consumed

  • my memories of that three-week trip, I would say,

  • for about 25 minutes in the last four years.

  • Now, if I had ever opened the folder

  • with the 600 pictures in it,

  • I would have spent another hour.

  • Now, that is three weeks,

  • and that is at most an hour and a half.

  • There seems to be a discrepancy.

  • Now, I may be a bit extreme, you know,

  • in how little appetite I have for consuming memories,

  • but even if you do more of this,

  • there is a genuine question:

  • Why do we put so much weight on memory

  • relative to the weight that we put on experiences?

  • So I want you to think

  • about a thought experiment.

  • Imagine that for your next vacation,

  • you know that at the end of the vacation

  • all your pictures will be destroyed,

  • and you'll get an amnesic drug

  • so that you won't remember anything.

  • Now, would you choose the same vacation? (Laughter)

  • And if you would choose a different vacation,

  • there is a conflict between your two selves,

  • and you need to think about how to adjudicate that conflict,

  • and it's actually not at all obvious, because

  • if you think in terms of time,

  • then you get one answer,

  • and if you think in terms of memories,

  • you might get another answer.

  • Why do we pick the vacations we do

  • is a problem that confronts us

  • with a choice between the two selves.

  • Now, the two selves

  • bring up two notions of happiness.

  • There are really two concepts of happiness

  • that we can apply, one per self.

  • So you can ask: How happy is the experiencing self?

  • And then you would ask: How happy are the moments

  • in the experiencing self's life?

  • And they're all -- happiness for moments

  • is a fairly complicated process.

  • What are the emotions that can be measured?

  • And, by the way, now we are capable

  • of getting a pretty good idea

  • of the happiness of the experiencing self over time.

  • If you ask for the happiness of the remembering self,

  • it's a completely different thing.

  • This is not about how happily a person lives.

  • It is about how satisfied or pleased the person is

  • when that person thinks about her life.

  • Very different notion.

  • Anyone who doesn't distinguish those notions

  • is going to mess up the study of happiness,

  • and I belong to a crowd of students of well-being,

  • who've been messing up the study of happiness for a long time

  • in precisely this way.

  • The distinction between the

  • happiness of the experiencing self

  • and the satisfaction of the remembering self

  • has been recognized in recent years,

  • and there are now efforts to measure the two separately.

  • The Gallup Organization has a world poll

  • where more than half a million people

  • have been asked questions

  • about what they think of their life

  • and about their experiences,

  • and there have been other efforts along those lines.

  • So in recent years, we have begun to learn

  • about the happiness of the two selves.

  • And the main lesson I think that we have learned

  • is they are really different.

  • You can know how satisfied somebody is with their life,

  • and that really doesn't teach you much

  • about how happily they're living their life,

  • and vice versa.

  • Just to give you a sense of the correlation,

  • the correlation is about .5.

  • What that means is if you met somebody,

  • and you were told, "Oh his father is six feet tall,"

  • how much would you know about his height?

  • Well, you would know something about his height,

  • but there's a lot of uncertainty.

  • You have that much uncertainty.

  • If I tell you that somebody ranked their life eight on a scale of ten,

  • you have a lot of uncertainty

  • about how happy they are

  • with their experiencing self.

  • So the correlation is low.

  • We know something about what controls

  • satisfaction of the happiness self.

  • We know that money is very important,

  • goals are very important.

  • We know that happiness is mainly

  • being satisfied with people that we like,

  • spending time with people that we like.

  • There are other pleasures, but this is dominant.

  • So if you want to maximize the happiness of the two selves,

  • you are going to end up

  • doing very different things.

  • The bottom line of what I've said here

  • is that we really should not think of happiness

  • as a substitute for well-being.

  • It is a completely different notion.

  • Now, very quickly,

  • another reason we cannot think straight about happiness

  • is that we do not attend to the same things

  • when we think about life, and we actually live.

  • So, if you ask the simple question of how happy people are in California,

  • you are not going to get to the correct answer.

  • When you ask that question,

  • you think people must be happier in California

  • if, say, you live in Ohio.

  • (Laughter)

  • And what happens is

  • when you think about living in California,

  • you are thinking of the contrast

  • between California and other places,

  • and that contrast, say, is in climate.

  • Well, it turns out that climate

  • is not very important to the experiencing self

  • and it's not even very important to the reflective self

  • that decides how happy people are.

  • But now, because the reflective self is in charge,

  • you may end up -- some people may end up

  • moving to California.

  • And it's sort of interesting to trace what is going to happen

  • to people who move to California in the hope of getting happier.

  • Well, their experiencing self

  • is not going to get happier.

  • We know that.

  • But one thing will happen: They will think they are happier,

  • because, when they think about it,

  • they'll be reminded of how horrible the weather was in Ohio,

  • and they will feel they made the right decision.

  • It is very difficult

  • to think straight about well-being,

  • and I hope I have given you a sense

  • of how difficult it is.

  • Thank you.

  • (Applause)

  • Chris Anderson: Thank you. I've got a question for you.

  • Thank you so much.

  • Now, when we were on the phone a few weeks ago,

  • you mentioned to me that there was quite an interesting result

  • came out of that Gallup survey.

  • Is that something you can share

  • since you do have a few moments left now?

  • Daniel Kahneman: Sure.

  • I think the most interesting result that we found in the Gallup survey

  • is a number, which we absolutely did not expect to find.

  • We found that with respect to the happiness

  • of the experiencing self.

  • When we looked at how feelings,

  • vary with income.

  • And it turns out that, below an income

  • of 60,000 dollars a year, for Americans --

  • and that's a very large sample of Americans, like 600,000,

  • so it's a large representative sample --

  • below an income of 600,000 dollars a year...

  • CA: 60,000.

  • DK: 60,000.

  • (Laughter)

  • 60,000 dollars a year, people are unhappy,

  • and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get.

  • Above that, we get an absolutely flat line.

  • I mean I've rarely seen lines so flat.

  • Clearly, what is happening is

  • money does not buy you experiential happiness,

  • but lack of money certainly buys you misery,

  • and we can measure that misery

  • very, very clearly.

  • In terms of the other self, the remembering self,

  • you get a different story.

  • The more money you earn, the more satisfied you are.

  • That does not hold for emotions.

  • CA: But Danny, the whole American endeavor is about

  • life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness.

  • If people took seriously that finding,

  • I mean, it seems to turn upside down

  • everything we believe about, like for example,

  • taxation policy and so forth.

  • Is there any chance that politicians, that the country generally,

  • would take a finding like that seriously

  • and run public policy based on it?

  • DK: You know I think that there is recognition

  • of the role of happiness research in public policy.

  • The recognition is going to be slow in the United States,

  • no question about that,

  • but in the U.K., it is happening,

  • and in other countries it is happening.

  • People are recognizing that they ought

  • to be thinking of happiness

  • when they think of public policy.

  • It's going to take a while,

  • and people are going to debate

  • whether they want to study experience happiness,

  • or whether they want to study life evaluation,

  • so we need to have that debate fairly soon.

  • How to enhance happiness

  • goes very different ways depending on how you think,

  • and whether you think of the remembering self

  • or you think of the experiencing self.

  • This is going to influence policy, I think, in years to come.

  • In the United States, efforts are being made

  • to measure the experience happiness of the population.

  • This is going to be, I think, within the next decade or two,

  • part of national statistics.

  • CA: Well, it seems to me that this issue will -- or at least should be --

  • the most interesting policy discussion to track

  • over the next few years.

  • Thank you so much for inventing behavioral economics.

  • Thank you, Danny Kahneman.

Everybody talks about happiness these days.

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