Name: 近距離交易。低迷的市場與牛市陷阱 (Trading Up-Close: Bear Markets & Bull Traps)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T11:04:50.000Z
Duration: 2 min 1 s
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基礎被動語態

In falling markets, traders need to be on the lookout for what are called “Bull Traps.”

A bull trap refers to a short-term rally during a downtrend that “traps” the bull who

mistook it for the start of a new uptrend.

some of the largest up days in history have occurred in during bear market cycles.

Why does this happen? After a prolonged bull market, investors have been conditioned to

“buy the dip.” After a sharp decline, “dip” buyers step in and the market starts

to rise a bit. This initial rally then encourages other investors who think the worst is over

and become fearful of missing out—creating a cycle of yet more buying. A temporary rise

in prices may also force some short sellers to buy back shares to protect their profits,

At some point, though, traders who held tight through the start of the downtrend will come

to see this temporary rally as an opportunity to offload losing positions at a slightly

better price. These sales, combined with short sellers re-establishing their short positions

at the higher prices, may send stocks back into their pre-rally downtrend.

So what does a “bull trap” actually look like? Here's a prime example from 2008.

At the end of October, the S&P 500 had a large up day, which many traders took as a sign

that the worst was over. But after a few more days of gains, peaking on November 4th, the

sellers soon returned and pushed the market to even lower lows. The S&P 500 dropped

25% from its November 4th closing high to its November 20th closing low. That's a

massive amount of market damage in less than three weeks.

So how do you know if you're looking at a potential bull trap? We'll cover that