Name: 思想重於金錢3 (思想重于金钱3)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:04:07.000Z
Duration: 9 min 1 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP TRADER ONE: You know what?

I have stuff in the opening. I won't pay over that.

KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP TRADER TWO: Eight dollar, two on the upside on eight.

And just as Adam Smith suggested, traders here compete fiercely to make as much

money as possible for their clients and themselves.

JOE MAZZELLA (Knight Capital Group): You want to win.

And it's the competitive nature of all of us that drives us to push harder and harder

each day. You know, as the room gets busier and busier,

and the noise starts to elevate, if I'm sitting here, and I'm not that active,

and I see somebody next to me who's busier than I am,

KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP TRADER THREE: Hey, Tommy! The 38,000 guy added 50,

KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP TRADER FOUR: T.X.M. for a buyer.

Why does it matter what happens in places like this?

Most of us use financial products like mortgages or mutual funds.

The firms that sell us these products take our money and invest it to make more money

in the financial markets. If traders make profits for these financial

firms they can then offer us cheaper mortgages and better mutual fund returns.

The result: a matrix of money that connects us all.

It's built on an economic model that says most of the time most of us,

and most of the traders, behave rationally. But what if this model of human behavior isn't

ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: Stocks shot higher, giving the Dow its best day in almost two

In 2005, rational economics, it seems, has delivered.

ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: There's a hot real estate market in many parts of the country

ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: Earnings jumped almost eight-fold.

ARCHIVE AUDIO PRESIDENT GEORGE W BUSH NEWS CLIP: Our economic horizon is as bright as

ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: For those in the housing business,

ROBERT SHILLER: It did seem to me that there was complacency and an overriding feeling

ARCHIVE VIDEO NEWS CLIP: While the real estate market has grown to new heights and new prices

He's worried about one thing in particular: housing.

Housing prices have gone up six percent a year for decades.

In 2005, in some places they're rising at 25 percent.

ROBERT SHILLER: This was very anomalous performance. The idea that home prices always go up led

people to think that they had all found the investment of all investments.

ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: Thousands came to a two-day expo hoping to learn how how they

could turn investment in real estate into personal riches.

Shiller believes America is in the grip of an irrational mania.

ROBERT SHILLER: I predicted it was likely to correct down and might cause a huge financial

On a book tour, that summer, he warns of the dangers.

ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: Economist Robert Shiller is out with a new book titled Irrational

ROBERT SHILLER (In 2005 News Interview): It's kind of a frame of mind we get into,

when prices keep going up and we see a lot of excitement.

Rational economists dismiss his warnings.

JOHN COCHRANE: What does "irrational exuberance" mean?

It's a lovely buzzword for a view that prices are higher than Bob Schiller thinks they ought

EUGENE FAMA: Bob, who's a friend of mine, has been consistently pessimistic about prices.

The debate about whether rising house prices are the result of a mania or rational calculation

GARY BECKER: The individual household was not being irrational.

They were getting low down payments, low interest rates,

it was a rational decision to make, particularly when they expected prices to

Financial institutions share the conviction that house prices will continue to rise.

They offer mortgage deals never seen before. And the country's top financial officials

ALAN GREENSPAN (Former Chair,, Federal Reserve System/C-Span Archive Video):

The U.S. economy has weathered such episodes before,

without experiencing significant declines in the national average level of home prices.

BEN BERNANKE (Chair,, Federal Reserve System/C-Span Archive Video):

House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years.

At a national level, These price increases largely reflect strong

This confidence isn't just a shared hunch, It's based on the widely accepted models of

JUSTIN FOX: Basically, you build the models assuming people were like these calculators

who would look at the range of possible outcomes and the risks and balance it all out.

In 2005, he economic models assume consumers will make careful calculations about

RICHARD THALER: Economists assume we shouldn't worry about people taking out 95-percent mortgages

or 100-percent mortgages or "trust me" mortgages,, Because they'll only take out those mortgages

if they have made all the relevant calculations.

Instead, as housing prices soar, any consumers take out mortgages they cannot afford,

and assume debt based on the rising value of their homes.

So why might so many people be willing to take on so much risk?

At Stanford University, researchers stumble on a possible answer.

Their research,at first, as nothing to with money.

It isn't even being conducted by economists. Psychologists are using powerful brain scanners

to explore the mysteries of the human mind, specially emotion.

BRIAN KNUTSON (Stanford University): I started looking into the brain because I was interested

in emotion, and I was convinced that there must be something

in there that could give us a handle on emotion.

Psychologist Brian Knutson wants to know how emotions affect one of the oldest parts of

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思想重於金錢3 (思想重于金钱3)

brain

capital

real

emotion