we make decisions that will profoundly influence

我們都會做出一些決定， 這些決定會深刻影響

the lives of the people we're going to become,

未來我們自己的生活，

and then when we become those people,

當我們成為未來的自己時，

we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.

我們並不總是對過去 做過的決定感到高興。

So young people pay good money

所以年輕人花很多錢

to get tattoos removed that teenagers

洗去當還是青少年時

paid good money to get.

花了很多錢做上的紋身。

Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people

中年人急著跟

who young adults rushed to marry.

年輕時迫不及待想結婚的人離婚。

Older adults work hard to lose

老年人很努力的揮霍著

what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.

作為中年人時不停工作所賺的錢。

On and on and on.

如此沒完沒了。

The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is,

作為一個心理學家， 讓我感興趣的問題是，

why do we make decisions

為什麼我們會做出

that our future selves so often regret?

讓自己將來常常後悔的決定？

Now, I think one of the reasons --

我認為其中一個原因——

I'll try to convince you today —

而我今天想說服你們的——，

is that we have a fundamental misconception

就是我們對時間的力量

about the power of time.

有個基本的錯誤概念。

Every one of you knows that the rate of change

你們每個人都知道變化的速度

slows over the human lifespan,

隨著人的年齡增長不斷放慢，

that your children seem to change by the minute

孩子們好像每分鐘都有變化，

but your parents seem to change by the year.

而父母們的變化則要慢得多。

But what is the name of this magical point in life

那麼生命中這個讓變化

where change suddenly goes

突然間從飛速變得緩慢的

from a gallop to a crawl?

神奇轉捩點應該叫什麼呢？

Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?

是青少年時期嗎？是中年時期嗎？

Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,

是老年階段嗎？ 其實對大多數人來說，

for most people, is now,

答案是，現在，

wherever now happens to be.

無論現在發生在什麼。

What I want to convince you today

今天我想讓大家明白的是，

is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,

我們所有人都在圍繞著 一種錯覺生活，

an illusion that history, our personal history,

這種錯覺就是，我們每個人的過去，

has just come to an end,

都已經結束了，

that we have just recently become

我們已經成為了

the people that we were always meant to be

我們應該成為的那種人，

and will be for the rest of our lives.

在餘下的生命中也都會如此。

Let me give you some data to back up that claim.

我想給你們展示一些資料 來支持這個觀點。

So here's a study of change in people's

這是一項關於人們的個人價值觀

personal values over time.

隨時間變化的研究。

Here's three values.

這裡有3種價值觀。

Everybody here holds all of them,

每個人的生活都與這三個價值觀相關，

but you probably know that as you grow,

但是你們可能知道， 隨著你們慢慢長大，

as you age, the balance of these values shifts.

變老，這三個價值觀的平衡點 會不斷變化。

So how does it do so?

到底是怎麼回事呢？

Well, we asked thousands of people.

我們詢問了數千人。

We asked half of them to predict for us

我們讓他們當中一半的人預測了一下

how much their values would change in the next 10 years,

在未來10年中， 他們的價值觀會發生多大的改變，

and the others to tell us

讓另一半人告訴我們

how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.

在過去的10年中， 他們的價值觀發生了多大的變化。

And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis,

這項調查可以讓我們做一個很有趣的分析，

because it allowed us to compare the predictions

因為它可以讓我們將

of people, say, 18 years old,

大約18歲左右的人的預測同

to the reports of people who were 28,

大約28歲左右的人的答案相比較，

and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.

這項分析可以貫穿人的一生。

Here's what we found.

這是我們的發現。

First of all, you are right,

首先，你們是對的，

change does slow down as we age,

隨著我們年齡的增長，變化會減緩。

but second, you're wrong,

第二，你們錯了，

because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.

因為這種變化並不像我們想像的那麼慢。

At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,

在我們的資料庫從18歲到68歲的 每一個年齡段中，

people vastly underestimated how much change

人們大大的低估了在未來的10年

they would experience over the next 10 years.

他們會經歷多少變化。

We call this the "end of history" illusion.

我們把這叫做“歷史終止”錯覺。

To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,

為了讓你們瞭解這種影響有多大，

you can connect these two lines,

你們可以把這兩條線連接起來，

and what you see here is that 18-year-olds

你們現在看到的是18歲的人群

anticipate changing only as much

預期的改變僅僅和

as 50-year-olds actually do.

50歲的人群實際經歷的一樣。

Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.

現在不僅僅是價值觀了。 其他的方面都也有變化。

For example, personality.

比如說，人格。

Many of you know that psychologists now claim

你們當中的很多人知道現在心理學家們認為

that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality:

人格可以分為五個基本維度：

neuroticism, openness to experience,

神經質性，經驗汲取度，

agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.

協調性，外向性和道德感。

Again, we asked people how much they expected

回到原來的話題， 我們問人們他們期待未來的10年中

to change over the next 10 years,

自己會有多大的變化，

and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years,

以及他們在過去的10年中發生了多少變化，

and what we found,

我們發現了，

well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over,

你們會習慣不斷地看到這個圖表，

because once again the rate of change

因為又一次，變化速率隨著我們的年齡增長

does slow as we age,

減慢了。

but at every age, people underestimate

但是在每一個年齡階段，人們都低估了

how much their personalities will change

在未來的十年中

in the next decade.

他們的人格會發生多大的改變。

And it isn't just ephemeral things

而且不光是像價值觀和人格這樣的

like values and personality.

臨時性的特質。

You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,

你們可以問問人們關於他們喜好和厭惡的事，

their basic preferences.

他們基本的偏好。

For example, name your best friend,

比如說，說出你最好朋友的名字，

your favorite kind of vacation,

你最喜歡什麼樣的假期，

what's your favorite hobby,

你最大的愛好是什麼，

what's your favorite kind of music.

你最喜歡什麼樣的音樂。

People can name these things.

人們可以說出這些事情。

We ask half of them to tell us,

我們讓他們當中的一半人告訴我們，

"Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?"

“你認為這在未來10年內會改變嗎？”

and half of them to tell us,

讓另一半告訴我們，

"Did that change over the last 10 years?"

“這個在過去十年內變化了嗎？”

And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,

我們的發現是， 嗯，這個圖你們已經看過2次了，

and here it is again:

再展示一次：

people predict that the friend they have now

人們推測他們現在的朋友

is the friend they'll have in 10 years,

在未來10年中還會是他們的朋友，

the vacation they most enjoy now is the one

他們喜歡的度假之地在未來10年內

they'll enjoy in 10 years,

還會是他們喜歡的地方，

and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,

然而，年長10歲的人都會說：

"Eh, you know, that's really changed."

“嗯，你知道，這確實不一樣了。”

Does any of this matter?

這有什麼關係嗎？

Is this just a form of mis-prediction that doesn't have consequences?

這只是一種 並不會有什麼後果的錯誤的預測嗎？

No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why.

不，這有很大的關係， 我會舉例告訴你們為什麼。

It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.

它在很多重要的方面困擾著我們做決定。

Bring to mind right now for yourself

現在想想你們此時此刻

your favorite musician today

最喜歡的音樂人，

and your favorite musician 10 years ago.

還有10年前你們最喜歡的音樂人。

I put mine up on the screen to help you along.

我把我的答案放在大螢幕上作為提示。

Now we asked people

現在我們讓人們

to predict for us, to tell us

預測一下，告訴我們

how much money they would pay right now

他們現在願意付多少錢

to see their current favorite musician

來參加他們現在最喜歡的音樂人

perform in concert 10 years from now,

從現在起10年後的音樂會，

and on average, people said they would pay

平均來講，人們會說他們會付

129 dollars for that ticket.

129美元買票。

And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay

然而，當我們問他們

to see the person who was their favorite

願意付多少錢去看

10 years ago perform today,

他們10年前喜歡的人現在的演出，

they say only 80 dollars.

他們說只有80塊。

Now, in a perfectly rational world,

那麼，在一個完全理性的世界裡，

these should be the same number,

這兩個數字應該是相同的，

but we overpay for the opportunity

但是我們為沉浸于當前喜好中

to indulge our current preferences

的機會付了更多的錢，

because we overestimate their stability.

因為我們高估了它們的持久性。

Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,

為什麼會發生這樣的變化呢？ 我們也不是很確定，

but it probably has to do

不過這可能與

with the ease of remembering

記憶的消逝和

versus the difficulty of imagining.

想像的難度相關。

Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago,

我們中的大多數人都能記得 10年前的我們是什麼樣子，

but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,

但是要想像我們會成為什麼樣的人就困難了，

and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine,

然後我們會錯誤地認為因為很難想像，

it's not likely to happen.

就不太可能會發生。

Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"

很遺憾，當人們說“我可想像不出來”，

they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination,

他們通常是在表達他們缺乏想像力，

and not about the unlikelihood

而不是他們所描述的

of the event that they're describing.

不可能發生的事情。

The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.

總而言之，時間是一種強大的力量。

It transforms our preferences.

它改變了我們的喜好。

It reshapes our values.

它重塑了我們的價值觀。

It alters our personalities.

它改變了我們的人格。

We seem to appreciate this fact,

我們似乎會感激這個事實，

but only in retrospect.

但是只在回想過去的時候。

Only when we look backwards do we realize

只有在我們回首過去的時候我們才會認識到

how much change happens in a decade.

在過去的十年裡發生了多麼大的變化。

It's as if, for most of us,

好像，對我們大多數人來說，

the present is a magic time.

當前是個有魔力的時刻。

It's a watershed on the timeline.

它是時間軸上的分水嶺。

It's the moment at which we finally

它是一個使我們最終成為

become ourselves.

我們自己的時刻。

Human beings are works in progress

人類還處在發展變化的過程中，

that mistakenly think they're finished.

卻錯誤地以為他們不會發生任何改變了。

The person you are right now

現在的你

is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary

只是處於過渡中，轉瞬即逝， 暫時的的狀態而已，

as all the people you've ever been.

就像所有那些過去的你。

The one constant in our life is change.

在我們的生命中唯一不變的就是， 變化。

Thank you.

謝謝大家。

(Applause)

（掌聲）