Ethiopianleadershavesofarresistedinternationalpressureformediationwith a Tigrayrebelforces, butfalloutfromthetwoweekconflicthasthepotentialtodestabilize.
Ethiopia's primeministerhaspromised a finalmilitaryoperationinthecomingdaysandsaidhe's readytoreintegratetheswellingnumbersofrefugeesnowtryingtosurviveonthebanksoftheTech.
Butmanypeoplethinkthatthiscouldbecome a muchmoreentrenchedandprotractedconflict, onewhichturnswiththeTPLFbecominganinsurgencymovementin a verydifficultterrainandmountainousandruggedregion.
Sothereisthereisn't really, I guess, understandingofwhetherthisoperationwhichisbeingtaken, isonewhichistosubmittheTPLleftsothattheyeventuallycome.
Thionegotiatedsettlementin a veryweakenedposition, oronewhichisfollowingthestatedaims, whichistoremovetheTPLFadministrationfromtwobryonandpreventthemandreplacethemwith a provisionaladministration.
Well, youhavesaidthatPrimeministercomingintoleadershipwasreally a dramaticchangethatflippedthepowerdynamicsonitshead.
Isheriskingtodestabilizethewholeregionthere?
Yes, I thinktherearewiderregionalimplicationsandthepossibilityofprotractedconflictwe'realreadyseeingcouldcouldhavereallyterribleeffectsforthebroaderHornofAfricaregionforEastAfricaAnayarea, whichhasseencyclicalconflictovermanydecades, onwhichwejust, I think, under a swell, theemergenceofAbby's leadership, beginningtolooktowardsincreasingintegrationsandstabilityasyourreportshows, andunverifiablereportsofEritreanfightersbeinginvolvedinalongsidethefederalgovernmentforces.
WealsoknowthatSudan a someotherneighboringcountry, hashisownverydelicatetransitionwiththeciviliancivilianmilitaryadministration.
OntheinfluxoftensofthousandsreportedbytheUNHCRupto 25,000, asyourreportputit, increasingeverydaypotentiallyintohundredsofthousandsofofciviliansfleeingtheconflictinSudancouldhave a animpacton a regionwhichhasitsownintercommunaltensionsonwhichhasbeenexperiencesinitsowntraveltroubles, whichcouldhave a broaderimpactontheSudanesetransition.
Iftheconflictbecomesworse, ifitbecomesmoreprotractedandlossesahfeltonbothsides, therecouldbeanopeningattractionfor a negotiatedsettlementonbringing a trucetothisconflict.
I thinktheinternationalcommunityneedstocontinueitsstrongmessagingtodeescalatethio, bringtruceandtoallowhumanitarianaccess.
WhetherthatwouldbemandatedthroughtheUnitedNationswithAfricanstatesmaninchargesuchasthetheAUchairCyrilRam, opposeouronthegodchair, a PrimeMinisterAbdallahHamdan.
So I thinkthereisthattheonlywayforwardforforEthiopiareallyisthroughinclusivedialogueandthroughcomingthrough a negotiatedsettlement.
I'm a SalomoninLondon.
toEthiopia, wherePrimeMinisterRBAhmedhasannounced a quotefinalmilitaryoperationagainstthedefiantTigrayprovinceincomingdays.
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