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Best Investing For Beginners Advice - How TO Find Good Stocks
最佳投資新手建議--如何尋找好股票
How to get started with investing - simple steps to start investing
如何開始投資--開始投資的簡單步驟
intro
介紹
How many millionaires do you think are there in the world?
你覺得世界上有多少百萬富翁?
You won't believe this number, but there are almost 47 million (46.8 million) millionaires
你不會相信這個數字,但有近4700萬(4680萬)的百萬富翁。
worldwide.
在全球範圍內,
And guess what?
你猜怎麼著?
18.6 million of them are right here in the United States.
其中1860萬就在美國。
Let me give you one more shacking statistics.
我再給大家統計一個棚戶區的數據。
Every year around 700K people become a millionaire just in the united states alone.
僅在美國,每年就有大約70萬人成為百萬富翁。
It seems like becoming a millionaire isn't as difficult as many of us led to believe.
看來,成為百萬富翁並不像我們很多人所認為的那樣困難。
But as we all know, it's almost to become one if you do not learn how to invest.
但我們都知道,如果你不學習如何投資,幾乎是要成為一個。
Most people are interested in the stock market but the problem that many people face is how
大多數人都對股市感興趣,但許多人面臨的問題是如何
to find good stocks?
來尋找好股票?
How do you know if it is a good stock to buy?
如何知道它是否是一隻好股票?
People usually base their decision on the news.
人們通常根據新聞來決定。
If the stock is rising and it gets a lot of attention, it must be a good investment and
如果股票在上漲,並且受到很多人的關注,那一定是一個好的投資和
vice versa of course.
反之亦然
Unfortunately, that is the worst way to invest.
不幸的是,這是最糟糕的投資方式。
By the time it's out there in the news, you are probably late.
等到新聞出來的時候,你可能已經晚了。
So here in this video, you will learn how to find great stocks?
那麼在這段視頻中,你將學習如何找到好股票?
How do you find stocks that will rise in value over time?
如何找到能長期升值的股票?
If you stick around, by the end of this video, you learn how to analyze stocks like a professional
如果你堅持下去,在這個視頻的最後,你學會了如何像一個專業的股票分析。
investor.
投資者。
Why stock prices mean nothing.
為什麼股票價格毫無意義。
Apple's has a valuation of 2 trillion dollars
蘋果公司的估值為2萬億美元。
and its stock price is traded at around 120 dollars at the time of this script.
而其股價在本稿時的交易價格為120美元左右。
But, what if I told you that, just in august of this year, Apple's stock price was 500
但是,如果我告訴你,就在今年8月,蘋果的股票價格是500
dollars.
美元。
Does that mean that the company was already valued at 10 trillion dollars, and it lost
這是否意味著公司的估值已經達到10萬億,而它卻失去了
80% of its value in the last few months?
在過去的幾個月裡,其價值的80%?
In fact, apple's stock price in June 2014 was 645 dollars.
事實上,蘋果2014年6月的股價是645美元。
Does that mean that the company was way more valuable back then?
這是否意味著當時的公司價值更高?
Not really!
不見得!
That's why looking at the stock price is not investing! - oh yeah, what's Warren Buffett's
所以看股價不是投資!- 哦,對了,巴菲特是什麼?
quote.
配額。
If it already seems too confusing, don't worry,
如果已經顯得過於混亂,不要擔心。
because that's why I am here, to simplify everything for you and turn you into a professional
因為這就是我在這裡的原因,為你簡化一切,讓你變成一個專業的人
investor in under 10 minutes.
投資者在10分鐘內。
Because the YouTube algorithm told me that my audience are some of the smartest subscribers
因為YouTube的算法告訴我,我的觀眾都是最聰明的訂閱者
on the entire platform and they learn 10x faster than anyone else.
在整個平臺上,他們的學習速度比別人快10倍。
So I am counting on you, don't let me down!
所以我就指望你了,別讓我失望!
If you take a look at the companies that are
如果你看看那些公司,他們是誰?
traded in the stock market, they have a price tag, but because no one can afford that, they
在股票市場上交易,他們有一個價格標籤,但因為沒有人能夠負擔得起,他們
are broken down into many many stocks.
被分解成很多很多股票。
The key question is, does this company really worth 768 billion dollars?
關鍵問題是,這家公司真的值768億嗎?
The answer is NO!
答案是NO!
You see, there is a big difference between Price and value.
你看,價格和價值之間有很大的區別。
The stock price jumps up and down every single day.
股價每天都會跳上跳下。
Even slightly negative news that could be fake can drive the Price down, however not
即使是稍微負面的消息,可能是假的,也會推動價格下跌,然而並不是。
the value, because the value is what the company is really worth.
的價值,因為價值是公司真正的價值。
For example, in July 2018, facebook's earnings weren't as high as some investors expected,
例如,在2018年7月,facebook的收益並沒有一些投資者預期的那麼高。
so the stock price fell from $217 to $176.
所以股價從217元跌到176元。
That's a 20 percent decline.
跌幅達20%。
The company lost 120 billion dollars of market cap in a single day.
公司單日損失1200億市值。
Does that mean the company became 20 percent smaller overnight?
這是否意味著公司一夜之間變小了20%?
Of course, No!
當然,不!
That's why the stock price jumped back to its pre-decline level and is 32 percent higher
所以股價才會跳回下跌前的水準,並上漲32%。
now.
現在。
So if you want to make a good investment,
所以如果你想做好投資。
you have to find out the real value of the company and then compare it to the Price that
你必須找出公司的真正價值,然後將其與價格進行比較。
it's traded in the market.
它在市場上的交易。
If it's undervalued, it's a good investment.
如果它的價值被低估,那就是一個很好的投資。
If it's overvalued, it's a bad investment.
如果被高估了,那就不好投資了。
It is as simple as that.
就這麼簡單。
In 2002, Buffett came across a company called Petrochina.
2002年,巴菲特遇到了一家叫中石油的公司。
After analyzing its financial statements, it was clear that this company worth at least
在分析了它的財務報表後,發現這家公司價值至少在
100 billion dollars, but when he looked at its market cap, the company was traded at
000億美元,但當他看其市值時,公司的交易額為
just 30 billion dollars, and base on the political climate, it was clear that oil prices would
僅僅300億美元,而根據政治氣候,油價顯然會。
rise, he knew that it was a golden opportunity, so he invested almost 488 million dollars
漲,他知道這是一個黃金機會,所以他投入了近4.88億的資金
into this company.
進入這家公司。
Guess what happened?
猜猜發生了什麼?
The company didn't just reach a 100 billion dollar valuation, but it skyrocketed to 275
公司的估值不僅達到了1000億美金,而且還飆升到了275
billion dollars.
萬億美元。
Buffett sold his stake and earned 3.6 billion dollars from this deal.
巴菲特出售了自己的股份,並從這筆交易中賺取了36億美元。
So the question is
所以問題是 。
- how do you find the real value of a company.
- 如何找到公司的真正價值。
One of the most popular methods is the P/E
最流行的方法之一是市盈率。
ratio or Price to earnings ratio.
比率或市盈率。
It basically means the amount of money investors are willing to pay for every dollar that the
基本上是指投資者願意為每一元錢支付多少錢,而這
company earns.
公司賺。
It's a simple tool to measure if the stock is overvalued or undervalued.
這是一個衡量股票是高估還是低估的簡單工具。
Let's say hypothetically, Apple earned 2K dollars this year and has a total number of
假設說,蘋果公司今年賺了2K美元,共有
1000 shares.
1000股。
Dividing apple earnings on the total number of shares gives us earnings per share or EPS
將蘋果收益除以總股數,就得到了每股收益或EPS。
in short.
總之,
This means Apple has earned 2 dollars for every share.
這意味著,蘋果公司每分得2美元。
To find the P/E ratio, you have to take the Price of the share, let us assume it's 50,
要想找到市盈率,就得把股票的價格,我們假設是50。
and divide it on EPS (50/2=25).
並將其除以EPS(50/2=25)。
In this example, investors are paying 25 dollars for every dollar that Apple earns.
在這個例子中,投資者為蘋果公司每賺取一美元支付25美元。
In other words, it would take the company 25 years to pay you back.
換句話說,公司要花25年時間來償還你。
A good PE ratio is considered something around 15.
一個好的PE比率被認為是15左右的東西。
Anything higher than that could mean that the stock is probably overvalued.
如果高於這個數字,可能意味著該股可能被高估了。
Tesla's PE ratio is, for example, 970.
例如,特斯拉的PE比率是970。
Does that mean Tesla is overvalued?
這是否意味著特斯拉的價值被高估了?
Maybe, or maybe not.
也許是,也許不是。
When finding a PE ratio of a certain company, we take into account earnings per share for
在尋找某家公司的PE比率時,我們會考慮到每股收益的情況,以達到
the last 12 month, but when you invest in a certain company, past earnings don't matter.
過去12個月,但當你投資某家公司時,過去的收益並不重要。
What matters is how much the company is going to earn in the future, which is why there
重要的是公司未來要賺多少錢,這也是為什麼要有
is something called forward P/E ratio.
是一種叫做遠期市盈率的東西。
Of course, You can't know for sure how much the company is going to earn in the future,
當然,你無法確定公司未來會賺多少錢。
so the number that is used is the average of what experts usually predict.
所以使用的數字是專家通常預測的平均值。
If we go back to Tesla, despite it having an anstonomical PE ratio (970), its forward
如果我們回到特斯拉,儘管它有一個靜態的PE比(970),但它的遠期的
PE ratio is closer to the earth at 123.
PE比接近於123的地球。
Which means, That you will have to wait 949 years to earn your money back if you invest
這意味著,如果你投資,你將不得不等待949年才能賺回你的錢。
in Tesla based on its past 12 month earnings, but experts are calming us down by saying
根據特斯拉過去12個月的收益,但專家們讓我們冷靜下來,他們說:"根據特斯拉過去12個月的收益,特斯拉的收益是很高的。
that "don't worry, its that long, Tesla is going to be much more profitable so its just
說 "別擔心,它的時間那麼長,特斯拉會有更多的利潤,所以它只是。
123 years" which is why most investors consider Tesla an overvalued stock.
123年 "這也是為什麼大多數投資者認為特斯拉是一隻高估的股票。
But we all know that Elon Musk is an alien, and he is going to prove everyone wrong, as
但我們都知道,埃隆-馬斯克是個外星人,他要證明所有人都錯了,因為
he does all the time.
他一直在做。
The price-to-earnings ratio isn't the most accurate method to value a company, but it's
市盈率並不是最準確的評估公司價值的方法,但它是。
the simplest way to have a broad idea of how the company is performing.
最簡單的方法就是對公司的業績有一個大致的瞭解。
The company might come up with a revolutionary product and beat all expert predictions.
公司可能會拿出一個革命性的產品,並擊敗所有專家的預測。
So to make a wiser prediction, you have to
所以要想做出更明智的預測,你必須要
consider other analyses as well, such as Price to book ratio (P/B Ratio).
同時考慮其他分析,如市賬率(P/B Ratio)。
It basically means how much the company is going to earn if it sold all of its assets
基本上是指如果公司賣掉所有資產能賺多少錢
and paid off its debts.
並償還了其債務。
Let's return back to Tesla.
讓我們回到特斯拉。
Tesla has gigafactrories, thousands of charging stations, offices, patents, and a lot of other
特斯拉擁有gigafactrories、數千座充電站、辦公室、專利以及其他很多東西。
assets.
資產。
Let's say they all amount to 100 million, but it also has a lot of debt, let's say 70
比方說都是一個億,但是它的債務也很多,比方說70
million dollars.
萬元。
If we subtract its debts from its assets, we will get a book value of $30 million.
如果我們從資產中減去它的債務,就會得到3000萬元的賬面價值。
So if Tesla has 10 million stocks, its book value per share is going to be $3 ($30M/10M
所以,如果特斯拉有1000萬隻股票,其每股賬面價值要達到3美元(3000萬/1000萬)。
shares).
股份)。)
To find out how much you will be paying for each dollar, you have to divide the stock
要想知道每塊錢你將支付多少錢,你必須將股票除以
price, which is, lets say $15 by the book value of shares.
價格,也就是,比方說,按股票的賬面價值15元。
In plain English, you will be paying 5 dollars for each dollar of assets that Tesla has.
通俗地說,你將為特斯拉每1美元的資產支付5美元。
A good price to book ratio is considered something around 1, but sometimes it's really difficult
一個好的價格與賬面比率被認為是1左右的東西,但有時它真的很難
to put a price on something like an algorithm that Instagram is running on or Snapchat filters.
來給Instagram正在運行的算法或Snapchat濾鏡等東西定價。
But financial analysis is just one part of
但財務分析只是其中的一部分。
the story.
的故事。
Startups, for example, usually have a lot of debt and not many assets and might struggle
例如,初創企業通常負債累累,資產不多,可能會陷入困境。
with cashflow, but could end up becoming widely successful.
與現金流,但最終可能成為廣泛的成功。
So never rely on financial analysis as the sole predictor of a company's success, there
所以,千萬不要把財務分析作為公司成功的唯一預測,有
are many other indicators that we have covered in previous videos, which links I will leave
還有許多其他指標,我們已經在以前的視頻中涉及到,我將離開的鏈接。
in the description, nevertheless, financial analysis can give us a better image of how
在描述中,然而,財務分析可以讓我們更好地瞭解
the company is performing.
該公司正在執行。
If you guys enjoy this kind of these videos,
如果你們喜歡這樣的視頻。
let us know by giving this video a thumbs up and sharing it with your friends and we
讓我們知道,給這個視頻豎起大拇指,並與您的朋友分享,我們。
will make sure to make more similar videos.
一定會製作更多類似的視頻。
And if you are new around and want to learn more about the stock market and want to achieve
如果你是一個新的周圍,並希望瞭解更多的股市,並希望實現
your financial goals, make sure to subscribe and turn on your notifications, because that's
你的財務目標,一定要訂閱並打開你的通知,因為那是
what we do on this channel.
我們在這個頻道上做什麼。
Thanks for watching and until next time.
感謝您的觀看,直到下一次。