and how it's changed over the last 20, 30, 40 years.

最近20，30，40年發生的變化。

Twenty or 30 years ago,

20或30年前，

if a chicken caught a cold and sneezed and died

如果一隻雞在遙遠的亞洲村莊

in a remote village in East Asia,

得了感冒，打了噴嚏死了，

it would have been a tragedy for the chicken

這將是這隻雞和牠的親戚

and its closest relatives,

的悲劇，

but I don't think there was much possibility

我不認為有很大的可能

of us fearing a global pandemic

會帶給我們全球的恐慌

and the deaths of millions.

可能數百萬人會死於流感。

Twenty or 30 years ago, if a bank in North America

20或者30年前，如果北美的銀行

lent too much money to some people

貸款太多的錢給

who couldn't afford to pay it back

那些不能還清的人

and the bank went bust,

這個銀行會破產，

that was bad for the lender

對債主來說是糟糕的

and bad for the borrower,

對貸款者也是糟糕的，

but we didn't imagine it would bring

但是我們無法想象它會

the global economic system to its knees

擊垮全球經濟

for nearly a decade.

將近一個年代。

This is globalization.

這就是全球化。

This is the miracle that has enabled us

就是這樣的奇蹟使我們

to transship our bodies and our minds

的身體和思想

and our words and our pictures and our ideas

語言和圖畫和我們的想法

and our teaching and our learning around the planet

和我們的教學在這個星球

ever faster and ever cheaper.

運轉得更快，更便宜。

It's brought a lot of bad stuff,

它同樣帶來了不好的影響，

like the stuff that I just described,

像我之前說的那些，

but it's also brought a lot of good stuff.

但是同樣也帶來了很多好的東西。

A lot of us are not aware

我們當中很多沒聽過

of the extraordinary successes of the Millennium Development Goals,

千年非凡成就發展目標，

several of which have achieved their targets

當中的很多目標

long before the due date.

在目標日期前就已實現。

That proves that this species of humanity

這證明人類物種

is capable of achieving extraordinary progress

可以取得非凡的成就，

if it really acts together and it really tries hard.

如果我們一起同心協力，一起努力。

But if I had to put it in a nutshell these days,

但是如果我要概括這些日子，

I sort of feel that globalization

我有種感覺全球化

has taken us by surprise,

使我們吃了一驚，

and we've been slow to respond to it.

而且我們對它的反應比較慢。

If you look at the downside of globalization,

如果你看全球化的缺點，

it really does seem to be sometimes overwhelming.

它確實看起來可能有壓倒性。

All of the grand challenges that we face today,

我們今天面臨的所有大的挑戰，

like climate change and human rights

如氣候變遷、人權、

and demographics and terrorism and pandemics

人口分佈、恐怖主義、流行病、

and narco-trafficking and human slavery

販毒、奴役

and species loss, I could go on,

和物種滅絕，我可以一直列舉下去，

we're not making an awful lot of progress

我們並沒有取得太多的進步，

against an awful lot of those challenges.

在這些挑戰性的問題上。

So in a nutshell, that's the challenge

所以概括的說，這就是我們

that we all face today

在今天

at this interesting point in history.

這個有趣的歷史時間點要面臨的挑戰。

That's clearly what we've got to do next.

這就是我們下一步要做的。

We've somehow got to get our act together

我們必須一起行動起來

and we've got to figure out how to globalize

並且我們要搞清楚如何

the solutions better

尋求好的全球化的解決方法

so that we don't simply become a species

這樣我們不會僅僅成為一個

which is the victim of the globalization of problems.

全球化問題下的受害物種。

Why are we so slow at achieving these advances?

為什麼達到這些進步是如此緩慢？

What's the reason for it?

這的原因是什麼？

Well, there are, of course, a number of reasons,

那麼，有這樣一些原因，

but perhaps the primary reason

但是可能最主要的原因

is because we're still organized as a species

是我們仍然是像

in the same way that we were organized

200, 300年以前那樣

200 or 300 years ago.

組織著的物種。

There's one superpower left on the planet

這是地球上的超級大國

and that is the seven billion people,

這是70億人，

the seven billion of us who cause all these problems,

我們這70億人造成的問題，

the same seven billion, by the way,

同樣這些70億人，順便一提，

who will resolve them all.

將要解決一切問題。

But how are those seven billion organized?

但是這70億人是如何組織的？

They're still organized in 200 or so nation-states,

他們依然按照200多個國家組織，

and the nations have governments

每個國家都有政府

that make rules

制定規則，

and cause us to behave in certain ways.

讓我們按特定的方式行動。

And that's a pretty efficient system,

這是一個相當有效的系統，

but the problem is that the way that those laws are made

但是問題是這些法律制定的方式

and the way those governments think

和這些政府思考的方式

is absolutely wrong for the solution of global problems,

對於解決全球化問題來說，是相當錯誤的，

because it all looks inwards.

因為他們只看到內部。

The politicians that we elect

我們選的政治人物

and the politicians we don't elect, on the whole,

和非民選的政治人物，總體上，

have minds that microscope.

思想很渺小。

They don't have minds that telescope.

他們沒有宏觀的遠見。

They look in. They pretend, they behave,

他們只看內部。他們假裝，他們的做法，

as if they believed that every country was an island

如同他們相信每個國家都是一個島嶼，

that existed quite happily, independently

快樂的存在，相互獨立，

of all the others

自外於所有的其他國家，

on its own little planet

在他自己的小星球裡，

in its own little solar system.

在他自己的小太陽系裡。

This is the problem:

這就是問題所在：

countries competing against each other,

國家之間相互競爭，

countries fighting against each other.

國家之間相互戰爭。

This week, as any week you care to look at,

這週，和同樣其他 你在意的任何一 週一樣，

you'll find people actually trying to kill each other from country to country,

你會發現各國的人們 實際上正想方設法殺死對方，

but even when that's not going on,

但即使這並沒有發生，

there's competition between countries,

國家之間依然有競爭，

each one trying to shaft the next.

每一個都想要把另一個壓下去。

This is clearly not a good arrangement.

這明顯不是一個好的安排。

We clearly need to change it.

我們明顯需要改變這個。

We clearly need to find ways

我們明顯需要找到方法

of encouraging countries to start working together

去鼓勵國家之間

a little bit better.

更好的合作。

And why won't they do that?

但是為什麼他們不這麼做？

Why is it that our leaders still persist in looking inwards?

為什麼我們的領導依然堅持向內部看？

Well, the first and most obvious reason

好吧，最首要也是最明顯的原因

is because that's what we ask them to do.

是因為是我們要求他們這麼做。

That's what we tell them to do.

我們告訴他們這麼做的。

When we elect governments

當我們選政黨

or when we tolerate unelected governments,

或者忍受非民選的政府，

we're effectively telling them that what we want

我們有效的告訴他們我們想要什麼

is for them to deliver us in our country

是希望他們能帶個我們的國家

a certain number of things.

一些特定的東西。

We want them to deliver prosperity,

我們希望他們帶來繁榮，

growth, competitiveness, transparency, justice

發展，競爭力，透明度，公正

and all of those things.

和所有這些。

So unless we start asking our governments

所以除非我們要求我們的政府

to think outside a little bit,

能向外考慮一點，

to consider the global problems that will finish us all

去考慮可能會摧毀我們的全球化問題

if we don't start considering them,

如果我們不開始考慮這些，

then we can hardly blame them

我們不能責怪政府

if what they carry on doing is looking inwards,

如果他們繼續只向內看，

if they still have minds that microscope

如果他們的思想依然是微觀的

rather than minds that telescope.

而不是宏觀的。

That's the first reason why things tend not to change.

這就是為什麼事情沒有改變的首要原因。

The second reason is that these governments,

第二點原因是這些政府，

just like all the rest of us,

和我們其他人一樣，

are cultural psychopaths.

是文化的精神病患者。

I don't mean to be rude,

我不想這麼無禮，

but you know what a psychopath is.

但是你知道精神病是什麼吧。

A psychopath is a person who,

精神病是一個人呢，

unfortunately for him or her,

很不幸的，他或者她，

lacks the ability to really empathize

缺乏對其他人

with other human beings.

真正同情的能力。

When they look around,

當他們看四周的時候，

they don't see other human beings

他們看其他人，

with deep, rich, three-dimensional personal lives

看不到深層，豐富，三維的

and aims and ambitions.

有目標和雄心的人。

What they see is cardboard cutouts,

他們看到的是剪紙人，

and it's very sad and it's very lonely,

這是非常悲哀和孤獨的，

and it's very rare, fortunately.

幸運的是，這非常罕見。

But actually, aren't most of us

但事實上，難道我們大多數人

not really so very good at empathy?

不也是不能很好的同情？

Oh sure, we're very good at empathy

當然，我們很擅長同情

when it's a question of dealing with people

當我們同情的對象

who kind of look like us

是和我們很像的人

and kind of walk and talk and eat and pray

向我們一樣走路，說話，吃飯，祈禱

and wear like us,

和穿得像我們的人，

but when it comes to people who don't do that,

但是如果是不像我們的人，

who don't quite dress like us

穿得不像我們的人

and don't quite pray like us

不像我們一樣禱告的人

and don't quite talk like us,

不像我們一樣說話的人，

do we not also have a tendency to see them

難道我們不是傾向於

ever so slightly as cardboard cutouts too?

把他們看做紙板人一樣？

And this is a question we need to ask ourselves.

這是我們每個人需要捫心自問的。

I think constantly we have to monitor it.

我認為我們時刻需要監督這一點。

Are we and our politicians to a degree

我們和我們的政治人物 是不是在某種程度上

cultural psychopaths?

是文化的精神病患者？

The third reason is hardly worth mentioning

第三個原因根本不值得一提

because it's so silly,

因為很愚蠢，

but there's a belief amongst governments

但是多數政府有一種信仰

that the domestic agenda

認為國內事宜

and the international agenda

和國際事宜

are incompatible and always will be.

是不兼容的而且自始至終都是。

This is just nonsense.

這就是胡扯。

In my day job, I'm a policy adviser.

我每天的工作。我是個政策顧問。

I've spent the last 15 years or so

我花了最近15年左右的時間

advising governments around the world,

建議世界上的政府，

and in all of that time I have never once seen

在所有的這時間我從來沒有見過

a single domestic policy issue

一個單一個本土政策

that could not be more imaginatively,

可以如此有想像力的，

effectively and rapidly resolved

有效的，迅速的被解決，

than by treating it as an international problem,

如果把它當成是國際問題，

looking at the international context,

在國際背景下考慮，

comparing what others have done,

對比其他人的做法，

bringing in others, working externally

調動其他人，外部合作

instead of working internally.

而不是內部合作。

And so you may say, well, given all of that,

你可能會說，好吧，那樣的話，

why then doesn't it work?

為什麼不那樣做呢？

Why can we not make our politicians change?

為什麼我們不能改變政治家？

Why can't we demand them?

為什麼我們不能這麼要求他們？

Well I, like a lot of us, spend a lot of time complaining

我，和其他人一樣，花了很多時間抱怨

about how hard it is to make people change,

改變他人是多麼的不容易，

and I don't think we should fuss about it.

我認為我們沒必要大驚小怪。

I think we should just accept

我認為我們應該接受

that we are an inherently conservative species.

我們本質上是保守的物種。

We don't like to change.

我們不喜歡改變。

It exists for very sensible evolutionary reasons.

這是理智的進化原因。

We probably wouldn't still be here today

我們今天可能不會存在

if we weren't so resistant to change.

如果我們不那麼抵制改變的話。

It's very simple: Many thousands of years ago,

這非常簡單：數千年前，

we discovered that if we carried on

我們發現如果我們繼續

doing the same things, we wouldn't die,

做相同的事情，我們不會死，

because the things that we've done before

因為我們之前做過的事情

by definition didn't kill us,

理論上沒有殺死我們，

and therefore as long as we carry on doing them,

所以只要我們繼續做相同的事情，

we'll be okay,

我們就沒事，

and it's very sensible not to do anything new,

不做其他新的事情是很理智的，

because it might kill you.

因為那樣可能會殺死你。

But of course, there are exceptions to that.

但是當然，有例外。

Otherwise, we'd never get anywhere.

否則的話，我們沒有任何進步。

And one of the exceptions, the interesting exception,

其中的例外，一個有意思的例外，

is when you can show to people

是當你展示給其他人

that there might be some self-interest

如果他們的信仰可以飛躍

in them making that leap of faith

做小小的改變

and changing a little bit.

他們會受益。

So I've spent a lot of the last 10 or 15 years

所以我花了10到15年的時間

trying to find out what could be that self-interest

尋找那鼓勵不光是政治家

that would encourage not just politicians

也是商人和民眾

but also businesses and general populations,

的受益點，

all of us, to start to think a little more outwardly,

我們所有人，開始外向的思維，

to think in a bigger picture,

以一種全局的方式思維，

not always to look inwards, sometimes to look outwards.

不要總是向內看，要試著向外看。

And this is where I discovered

這就是我發現的

something quite important.

非常重要的事情。

In 2005, I launched a study

在2005， 我發起一項研究

called the Nation Brands Index.

叫做國家品牌指數。

What it is, it's a very large-scale study that polls

是一個大規模的研究，

a very large sample of the world's population,

從全世界抽取大量的樣本，

a sample that represents about 70 percent

代表大概70%的

of the planet's population,

世界人口，

and I started asking them a series of questions

我開始問他們一系列的問題

about how they perceive other countries.

關於他們是如何看待其他國家的。

And the Nation Brands Index over the years

現在世界品牌指數已經

has grown to be a very, very large database.

發展成為很大的數據庫。

It's about 200 billion data points

有2000億數據點

tracking what ordinary people think about other countries

追蹤普通人是如何看待其他國家的

and why.

和為什麼。

Why did I do this? Well, because the governments that I advise

我為什麼這麼做？ 因為，我建議的那些政府

are very, very keen on knowing

非常迫切想要知道

how they are regarded.

他們是如何被認為的。

They've known, partly because

他們知道，主要是

I've encouraged them to realize it,

因為我鼓勵他們去意識到這一點，

that countries depend

國家的生存和發展

enormously on their reputations

很大一部分

in order to survive and prosper in the world.

是依靠他們的形象的。

If a country has a great, positive image,

如果國家有一個偉大的正面的形象，

like Germany has or Sweden or Switzerland,

像德國、瑞士、瑞典，

everything is easy and everything is cheap.

所有的事情很簡單，便宜。

You get more tourists. You get more investors.

你有更多的旅遊者。你有更多的投資者。

You sell your products more expensively.

你賣你的東西更貴。

If, on the other hand, you have a country

如果，相反，你的國家

with a very weak or a very negative image,

有一個很弱的，很負面的形象，

everything is difficult and everything is expensive.

所有的事情很難，很貴。

So governments care desperately

所以國家相當的在乎

about the image of their country,

他們國家的形象，

because it makes a direct difference

因為這對他們能掙多少錢

to how much money they can make,

有直接的影響，

and that's what they've promised their populations

而這些經濟就是

they're going to deliver.

他們對民眾保證的事情。

So a couple of years ago, I thought I would take

所以幾年前，我想我可以花

some time out and speak to that gigantic database