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  • If you missed the financial news recently, let  me summarize everything that has happened in  

  • the last few weeks to find out if the market  will keep crashing or it will finally recover

  • Back at the end of February, when it  seemed like the market won't crash further,  

  • it kept falling! And right now, everyone  is confused about whether they should  

  • buy or wait till it keeps dipping more. Personally, I would love for it to keep falling,  

  • but it seems like it won't because the fed got  out on the 17th of March and clarified everything.

  • We will talk about what the  fed said. What does that mean?  

  • And How is it going to impact the stock market?

  • One of the metrics investors use  to value companies is discounted  

  • Cashflow. It can help us to understand  where the market is overall headed to

  • Without getting into a lot of details, I will  explain what Discounted Cashflow is? How is  

  • that related to what the federal reserve  said? And will there be another crash?

  • Interest rates aren't just important because they  make borrowing money cheap or expensive today  

  • but also because they influence  the value of future cash flow,  

  • which is what investors are concerned about the  most. You don't care about how much the company  

  • is earning today or how much it has been  earning in the past. What matters at the  

  • end of the day is how much the company is  going to earn in the future. Based on that,  

  • you will decide whether you should  invest in this or company or not.

  • Stocks always compete with other  type of investments such as  

  • bonds, cash, fixed deposits, whatever. Let's say you have a thousand dollars  

  • in your pocket. Is it better to  invest in the stock market? Bond  

  • market? Or just keep it in your wallet? Obviously, investing is way better. Let's  

  • say interest rates are 5 percent. So if you invest  it in government bonds, your 1K dollars will worth  

  • 1005 dollars next year. So it's important  to look at the time value of money.  

  • The sooner you have the cash on your  hands, the more it worth because,  

  • the sooner you will invest it, a dollar  today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow

  • SO if the company is going to earnbillion-dollar five years from now.  

  • It's not going to be billions becausebillion dollars 5 years from now worth  

  • less than a billion dollars worth today because  you could invest it and get 5 percent at least.

  • So it's not enough to look at  the company's future Cashflow

  • "Oh, this is how much the company  is going to earn in the next  

  • 3, 5, or 10 years." But you  have to find the present value  

  • of that future cash flow. How much that  billion dollars 5 years from now worth today

  • It sounds a bit complicated, butwill try my best to simply everything

  • You can use this metric in the  future to value other companies.

  • Of course, no one knows how much any company would  earn in the future. It's all predictions, but  

  • these predictions are based on multiple factors  such as how the company is performing today,  

  • where is it investing? What is their strategyHow is the business environment? What are the  

  • chances that the company will hit its annual  objectives? What is the political climate

  • There are a lot of analysts who  prepare a certain type of prediction.

  • Let's say hypothetically there is a company called  Amazon, and it's expected that it will generate  

  • 100K dollars every year for the next three years. On the other side, interest rates are 5  

  • percent, and they are expected to  stay there for the next three years.

  • At that rate, a 100K dollar next year would  worth $95,238. I got that number by dividing  

  • the future cash flow, which is 100K dollars by  (1+0.05)1 because the formula is CF/(1+r)year

  • If we apply the same formula in the second and  third year, these are numbers we are going.

  • Year 1 - $95,238 

  • Year 2 - $90,702 Year 3 - $86,383

  • The company's future cash flow isn't 300K  dollars as it seemed at first glance but  

  • $272,323 dollars or the  sum of these three numbers.

  • I told you it's not as complicated as it seems.

  • Here is when the interesting part startswhat happens if interest rates are lower?  

  • What happens if the fed lowers interest rates  to one percent? How will that impact the  

  • projected future cash flow? Let's do the math

  • First-year - instead of $95,238,  it's going to be $99,009. 

  • When fed lowers interest rates, suddenly on paperthese companies are going to make more money even  

  • though nothing absolutely changed for them. Let's do the second year and the third.

  • The Second-year will be $98,029 and the third -  $97,059, which makes it a total sum of $294,097,  

  • which is higher than the previous $272,323. 

  • Remember, the most important thing that  investors care about is how much the company  

  • is going to earn in the future. That's why  whenever the fed lowers interest rates,  

  • stocks become much more attractive even  if they are not going to borrow money.

  • This metric is even more important when  it comes to tech stocks because most tech  

  • companies are betting on making huge  profits in the future, such as Tesla.  

  • It's a great company, but it's barely profitableBut the idea behind it is that, in the future,  

  • it's going to be super profitable. It's going  to make a lot of money, but a dollar today worth  

  • more than tomorrow, so when the fed lowers  interest rates, tech stocks jump through the roof.

  • So since the end of February, when  the stock market started falling,  

  • everyone thought that's just a one-day thingHonestly, I jumped in and bought some shares.  

  • I wasn't expecting that it could get worse. I  mean, theoretically, it could, but if it doesn't,  

  • I will miss the opportunity, but the  market kept falling and falling. Of course,  

  • I bought more stocks, and on the 17th of Marchthe federal reserve said that - listen, guys,  

  • we understand that the economy hasn't  recovered yet, some business, of course,  

  • are doing better than they did last yearbut we feel like, in the next few years,  

  • we will keep interest rates low. What do you think LOW means

  • 0 to 0.25 percent at best. You can't get  lower than that unless you go negative,  

  • which already happened in some countries. Anywaysit's a clear message from the fed that, this year,  

  • we will keep the rates low, which means the  market will most probably keep rising. Of course,  

  • that's gonna cause inflation, but the fed said:  “we know that, but that's not a problem now.”

  • Imagine what message does  that sends to investors -

  • don't hold cash,

  • Because it's going to be worth a lot  less! This means there will be more  

  • money thrown into the stock marketwhich means stocks will keep rising.

  • So based on current circumstances, it's difficult  to believe that there is going to be some kind of  

  • a major crash in the coming future, at least till  the end of the year. Another correction, maybe?! 

  • I don't know, but corrections happen from  time to time, so I wouldn't be surprised  

  • to see a few of them throughout the yearEspecially if you are dollar-cost averaging,  

  • these dips are the perfect time to buy. If the market is heading higher and higher,  

  • buying when there is a dip is a perfect option. By the way, I am not a financial adviser,  

  • and everything I said in this video is  for educational or entertainment purposes  

  • and nothing more. So do not base your financial  decisions on what random people say on YouTube.

  • Low-interest rates also mean that companies will  keep borrowing money. When interest rates are at  

  • almost 0 percent. Any money you borrow is freeEven if you do not need that money, you will  

  • still turn a profit if you borrow it and invest  it elsewhere. It makes sense to borrow as much  

  • as possible at 0.25 percent for example, so any  return you make above 0.25 percent is considered  

  • to be a profit so when the fed is planning to  keep the rates at such a low rate until 2023,  

  • its extremely difficult to imagine that  there could be a crash or anything like that

  • Of course, we don't know for sure  whether interest rates will stay that low  

  • for another 2 years, anything could  change, but only time will tell.

  • What really worries me is higher bond ratesBonds have an inverse relationship with the  

  • market because bonds are much safer than the stock  market. With stocks, the company could go bankrupt  

  • or perform really poorly, but with government  bonds, chances that the government will collapse  

  • are really low so whenever bond rates rise, a  lot of investors chose bonds over the stocks,  

  • so the stock market slows down. But we will talk about that in  

  • another video. For now, I really want to  know your opinion about this new format

  • Regular videos on the channel aren't going  to stop, but we want to try something new  

  • where I can update you about the financial newsabout what's happening in the market, and try to  

  • help you read between the lines. But to be able  to make videos a bit quicker, we have to make them  

  • simpler, so I am curious to know your opinion. Let me know that by giving this video  

  • a thumbs up and commenting down below. thanks for watching and until next time.

If you missed the financial news recently, let  me summarize everything that has happened in  

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