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Dunkin' is placing a huge bet on coffee.
When you walk into a Dunkin' today, you'll notice way more coffee
options and far fewer donuts than you would have just a few years
ago. And it's not just drip coffee on the menu anymore.
There's everything from Cinnamon Sugar Pumpkin Lattes to Coolatta's
to premium espresso.
At the chain's newest stores you'll even find Nitro Cold Brew on tap.
It's all part of Duncan's $100 million investment to refresh the
brand and become a major player in coffee.
CEO David Hoffmann believes espresso is key to fueling the company's
long term growth.
The aggressive push into beverages comes at a time when the coffee
wars are heating up.
Competitors like McDonald's are slashing prices through deals.
While coffee giant Starbucks is taking bets on more expensive drinks,
a revamped loyalty program and delivery.
But Duncan's rebrand strategy encompasses more than just coffee.
The company also wants to aggressively expand across the country and
revamp its restaurants with new technology.
The chain changed its name, simplified its menu and started rolling
out new store designs.
It got a new CEO and made some changes to leadership at the top.
Dunkin' needs this strategy to work.
Traffic in stores has slowed and annual comparable store sales at
Dunkin took a one percent dip in 2017.
While slow traffic and lagging same store sales aren't unique to
Dunkin', they are dialing up pressure on the chain.
So will that $100 million dollar investment be enough to fuel
Dunkin's move into the big leagues with McDonald's and Starbucks?
Or will the hit to profits just cost the company in the end?
Dunkin' got its start here in Quincy, Massachusetts.
When Bill Rosenberg left school in the eighth grade, he dabbled in
catering but soon realized 40 percent of his revenue came from two
simple products -- coffee and pastry.
In 1948, Rosenberg opened a restaurant that sold five cent doughnuts
and 10 cent cups of coffee.
Two years later, Rosenberg renamed the restaurant "Dunkin' Donuts".
The restaurant was a hit.
In 1955, the first Dunkin' Donuts franchise opened.
That same year, the first McDonald's franchise opened too.
By 1963, Dunkin' Donuts opened its 100th location.
"This is one of the original publicly traded 100 percent franchise
businesses. I mean, it's a true asset light model.
Versus, you know, McDonald's is trending towards its 92 or 93 percent
franchise globally, moving towards 95, Wendy's is 95 percent, but
they weren't there five years ago.
Whereas Dunkin, when it went public, I think in 2011, it was already
100 percent franchised.
And it really built the appreciation for those types of businesses in
the industry."
That growth model worked well for Dunkin'.
Franchising meant fewer actual assets and higher profits.
Dunkin' started expanding internationally in 1970 when it opened its
first overseas location in Japan.
As of Q2 2019, there are over 12,800 Dunkin' locations, in more than
40 countries.
Dunkin' Brands went public in 2011, selling around $423 million worth
of shares. For comparison, Chipotle raised $193 million when it went
public in 2006 when adjusted to 2011 dollars.
Then CEO Nigel Travis told CNBC, the company would use profits from
its IPO to expand West and internationally and pay down its debts.
Analysts said the stock was overvalued because its price hinged on
the hope that Dunkin' would recreate its success in the Northeast,
across the rest of the country.
At the time of the IPO, there was only one Dunkin' Donuts on the West
Coast, in Portland, Oregon.
The company has since expanded its West Coast presence with 102
locations in California and 12 in Hawaii as of 2019.
But even as Dunkin' has pushed to grow its footprint west of the
Mississippi and internationally, it hasn't forgotten about the
Northeast.
Dunkin' is the largest chain in New York City for the tenth
consecutive year, with 624 locations as of December
2018.
In 2018, after 70 years of Dunkin Donuts, the restaurant dropped the
doughnuts and became just Dunkin'.
"We think about it less about dropping doughnuts then just leaning
into Dunkin'. Dunkin' is what we're known as
for almost 20 years.
We've been America runs on Dunkin'".
Beverage sales make up almost 60 percent of Duncan's revenue, so
growth in the category is essential to the company's overall health.
In 2017, Dunkin' told Nation's Restaurant News, that most stores
would offer fewer than 20 different donuts.
That was a big decrease from the 30 varieties it typically offers.
While Dunkin' has simplified its food offerings, it keeps adding to
its coffee menu. For about 45 years, Dunkin's coffee offerings
extended only to its original blend drip coffee.
But in 1997, Dunkin' decided to make a big push into the beverage
market. That was the year it rolled out the Coffee Colada slush
drink. In 2000, Dunkin' started selling the blended Dunkaccino.
And by 2003, it began to offer espresso.
Dunkin' relaunched its espresso lineup in 2018 with new machines, new
recipes and new training for employees.
It's a move some say has a whole lot to do with Dunkin' angling to
become a premier brand on par with Starbucks.
"I think that the initiative to modernize would absolutely come from
their largest competitor, which is Starbucks, which it has really
reinvented what coffee means to consumers on a daily basis.
So, yeah, it's always good to kind of have a, you know, an arch
enemy, if you will, out there, a bad guy, whatever you want to call
them, because they force you to stay on your toes."
It seems to be working.
Espresso sales for Dunkin' are on a tear.
In its annual report for fiscal year 2018,
Dunkin' U.S., said it sells approximately 1.7
billion servings of hot and iced coffee each year, and espresso
accounts for about 10 percent of Duncan's overall sales mix.
The company reported sales of espresso based beverages were up 40
percent in the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the year
prior. "That move into the espresso beverages,
this is a space that their key competitor really owned and had an
advantage over them.
Think about the length of the order that somebody might give a
barista at a Starbucks, for example, versus, you know, just a cup of
coffee at Dunkin'".
But Dunkin' can't just mimic Starbucks to succeed.
It needs to stay true to its brand.
Dunkin' is all about a quick, affordable menu and making trends
accessible to everyone.
That's not necessarily a natural fit with espresso.
So analysts warn that Dunkin' has to be careful about its move into
espresso. Customers are typically suspicious when a brand tries to do
something that doesn't feel authentic.
But if Dunkin's espresso based beverage sales so far are any
indicator, this product could unlock big potential for the chain.
However, coffee remains a crowded market, and Dunkin' is fighting for
market share against some formidable opponents.
Starbucks with its vast footprint, McDonald's with all day breakfast
and the regional but beloved Tim Hortons and Krispy Kreme.
As of September 2019, Dunkin' has a $6.8
billion dollar market cap and its shares are up about 8 percent over
the last 12 months.
But, it still has a ways to go to compete with giants like McDonald's
and Starbucks, which have about a $167 billion and $115 billion
market cap, respectively as of September 2019.
In fiscal year 2018, Dunkin' U.S.'s
sales were also dwarfed by the competition.
Dunkin' reported revenues of $606.8
million dollars.
McDonald's sales were more than 12 times that.
And Starbucks brought in $16.7
billion in the Americas, which includes the U.S.,
Canada and Latin America.
Espresso is a premium product and typically costs more than other
beverages. That means it pushes the average check price higher, which
in turn makes up for slowing traffic because people are spending more
when they do walk through the door.
In 2018, a party's average check at Dunkin' was eight dollars and
five cents. That's higher than its Canadian competitor, Tim Hortons,
but lower than Starbucks.
The most recent check averages don't include 2019 data, so it may be
too soon to measure Duncan's revamped espresso lineup, which started
to roll out at the end of 2018.
Dunkin' has long struggled with how to drive up afternoon foot
traffic.
It has extended cold beverage offerings and offered deals ranging
from two bagels for $4 dollars to $2 lattes.
"The beverages in the morning, that's their core.
And that's where the franchisees make their money.
But as far as the afternoon business is concerned, the "Dunkin' Run"
and the "Go2s", a lot of times those promotions, if they are on
beverages, they're usually after two o'clock in the afternoon.
So, you know, the afternoon "Run" seems to be stabilizing the
afternoon business."
Dunkin' Brands has also tried, and arguably failed, at using ice
cream to drum up afternoon sales.
Baskin Robbins and Dunkin' are both operated under Dunkin' Brands,
but Baskin hasn't performed as well as Dunkin'.
Its sales growth has been lackluster.
From 2007 up until it changed course in 2011, the chain posted
negative annual comparable store sales.
Baskin Robbins again posted negative same store sales for the fiscal
year 2018.
Analysts say, Baskin might not be adding much in sales to the brand,
but it's not really deadweight either.
A dual store with both a Baskin and a Dunkin' is attractive to some
franchisees to boost sales outside the morning coffee rush.
A dual store costs as little as ten thousand dollars more to open
than a standalone Dunkin' and doesn't require extra workers or
machinery.
Dunkin' is also trying to keep up with change in the fast food
industry by testing plant based meat and a partnership with GrubHub
in some locations.
"The online ordering system now is much more robust.
And our guests can get products anytime they want, anywhere they
want. And, you know, we're living in a culture now of everything
being on demand. Now you can get your coffee on the demand."
Dunkin' started offering Beyond Meats sausage in Manhattan, and the
company says, it's selling well and drawing repeat customers to
Dunkin'. Dunkin' has been testing delivery through partnerships with
GrubHub, DoorDash and other local companies.
It plans to expand the partnership with GrubHub to other major cities
in the U.S.
"Consistency of experience.
It's not a big deal when you're ordered from a mom and pop pizza or
taco place. But for us, the consistency is really important."
But there are unique challenges in delivering coffee.
Experts say Dunkin' and other cafes might not be a natural fit for
delivery, because coffee has to maintain its temperature to be
appealing. Think, watery iced coffee or a room temperature latte.
It's also betting big on store format.
Part of that $100 million cash injection went toward the rollout of
an entirely new kind of Dunkin' shop.
It's a layout called the "Next Generation" store and Dunkin' hopes it
will modernize the brand's image and keep it relevant
for the next generation of customers.
Dunkin' plans to add 200 to 250 net new restaurants a year for three
years starting in 2019.
"It completely changes the way the customer interacts with our crews.
There's nothing between the crew from the customers, so the customers
can now engage with our crews and ask questions and learn about the
product."
Dunkin' says the new store is slightly more expensive than previous
remodels because there's more technology in this design.
The company didn't disclose the cost of the new layout to CNBC.
"The returns are actually very exciting and better than the previous
iterations. So working very closely with our franchisees, we've
gotten to a place that we feel very good, both sides on the
investment that they'll be making for this next gen transformation."
Next gen stores are also a big part of Dunkin's push to digital
ordering. Mobile ordering is another area where Starbucks has Dunkin'
beat. About 4 percent of orders at Dunkin' are made through mobile
phones. At Starbucks the number is closer to 16 percent.
Experts are optimistic that the next gen store will improve that
metric. The designs have a larger space for people who are picking up
online orders.
"And the next gen store has an even bigger area dedicated to this and
we're seeing probably twice the average percentage of on the go
orders through the next gen stores, which is tremendous."
Some of the new stores also have a dedicated mobile lane in the drive
thru. That should help prevent bottleneck issues like the ones seen
in some Starbucks when the company added mobile ordering in 2017.
Next gen stores also have an 8 tap system for cold drinks, just like
the doughnut cases
it's all about getting products in front of customers to increase how
much they spend. With drinks on tap, crew members function more like
bartenders than baristas.
"Bartenders are quick on their feet,
they know your name, they know how to sample drinks.
But most importantly, they're great at serving the customer."
As of 2019, customers rated the barista expertise at Dunkin' at a 90
out of 100. Starbucks scored at 94 out of 100.
While McDonalds was lower at 78.
In its next gen stores Dunkin' hopes that number will go up.
Dunkin' has been a reliable brand throughout its existence, growing
at a slow and steady rate.
It hasn't had any major scandals like some of its competitors and its
franchisee relationship is strong.
So how has Dunkin' maintained solid and steady growth?
One expert says, it all comes down to loyalty.
Dunkin' ranks pretty high in satisfaction, slightly below Starbucks,
but above McDonald's, according to the American Consumer Satisfaction
Index. But if satisfaction is a moment in time, loyalty tells the
future. And, it is in metric where Dunkin' shines.
For 13 years through 2019, Dunkin' has ranked number one in consumer
loyalty in the out-of-home coffee provider category.
In the packaged coffee category, it's been number one for eight
years. That's no easy task in a field as competitive as coffee.
Robert Pascal, whose firm measures consumer loyalty, says having
highly loyal customers ensures that they'll come back again and again
and again.
"When we look at all the metrics against old rivals, against all the
expectations is up at about 95 percent.
That's pretty good.
You look at someone like Starbucks and they are a little bit lower."
And loyalty is valuable to a brand for more than just its bottom
line. Loyal customers are more likely to buy products associated with
the brand. Recommend the brand to others and invest in publicly
traded stocks. Despite low traffic and intense coffee competition,
Dunkin' is betting that new logos, sparkling espresso machines and
trendy partnerships will be enough to help it grow up.