the current vaccines and spread in all new ways.

目前的疫苗，並以各種新的方式傳播。

So with variants popping up in places like India, the UK, South Africa and Brazil.

是以，在印度、英國、南非和巴西等地都出現了變種。

What does that mean for the future of COVID-19? Will it ever truly be over? And

這對COVID-19的未來意味著什麼？它是否會真正結束？還有

will we need to get booster shots, alongside our yearly flu shots

我們是否需要在每年注射流感疫苗的同時再注射強化疫苗？

indefinitely?

無限期？

Variants are actually very common in the world of micro organisms. For viruses, the

在微生物的世界裡，變種實際上是非常普遍的。對於病毒來說，其

term "variant" is used to describe a strain that is genetically distinct from the original.

術語 "變體 "用於描述在基因上不同於原始的菌種。

As in the case of all living things, viruses mutate and evolve, and the traits that get

就像所有生物一樣，病毒會發生變異和進化，而得到的特徵是

selected for over time, what we call natural selection, are the traits that allow the virus

隨著時間的推移，我們稱之為自然選擇，這些特徵使病毒能夠被選中。

to survive better, so it can survive better by infecting more people and replicating

以更好地生存，所以它可以通過感染更多的人和複製來更好地生存。

more, it can survive better by evading our immune responses really our defenses

更多的是，它可以通過逃避我們的免疫反應，更好地生存下去，真正實現我們的防禦。

against the virus, and our counter attack against the virus.

應對該病毒，以及我們對該病毒的反擊。

I'm Dr. Celine Gounder. I'm an infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist at the

我是Celine Gounder博士。我是一名傳染病專家和流行病學家。

NYU Grossman School of Medicine and Bellevue Hospital.

紐約大學格羅斯曼醫學院和貝爾維尤醫院。

Of course better survival for viruses is not always ideal for us.

當然，病毒更好的生存並不總是我們的理想。

Some of those mutations, make the virus, more efficient in terms of how well it infects

其中一些突變，使病毒在感染程度上更有效。

us, it might cause more severe disease, and it can also make the virus evade our

我們，它可能會導致更嚴重的疾病，而且它還可以使病毒逃避我們。

immune systems, whether that's our immune response to infection or it could

免疫系統，無論是我們對感染的免疫反應，還是它可以

just be an immune response to the vaccine.

只是對疫苗的一種免疫反應。

And this is what people are worried about if the virus mutates in a way that makes it

而這正是人們所擔心的，如果病毒以一種方式變異，使其

spread more quickly or cause more dangerous symptoms, it can also be

擴散得更快或引起更危險的症狀，它也可能是

different enough for a vaccine to no longer be effective against. What makes a virus

差異大到足以讓疫苗不再對其有效。是什麼讓一個病毒

variant fit into one of these concerning categories is all about where the mutation

變異體是否符合這些有關類別中的一個，完全取決於突變的位置。

is and how it changes the shape of the viruses proteins.

是以及它如何改變病毒蛋白質的形狀。

So when we vaccinate you, you develop an immune response specifically antibodies

是以，當我們為你接種疫苗時，你會產生一種免疫反應，特別是抗體。

that recognize the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and you can think of the

識別SARS-CoV-2病毒的穗狀蛋白，你可以想到的是

immune response to SARS-CoV-2 as sort of like two interlocking puzzle pieces. Your

對SARS-CoV-2的免疫反應有點像兩塊互鎖的拼圖。你的

antibody is one puzzle piece and you have the virus as another puzzle piece.

抗體是一塊拼圖，你有病毒作為另一塊拼圖。

These puzzle pieces that Dr. Gounder is talking about are how your body

Gounder博士所說的這些拼圖是你的身體如何

recognizes any virus. It learns what the virus's proteins look like, so that it can flag

識別任何病毒。它瞭解病毒的蛋白質是什麼樣子的，這樣它就可以標記出

it the next time it comes around, so the vaccine is just mimicking your body's

它在下一次出現的時候，所以疫苗只是模仿你身體的

natural immune response, although we should note that in this case,

自然免疫反應，儘管我們應該注意，在這種情況下。

the vaccine triggered response is more reliable because it is more robust and

疫苗引發的反應更可靠，因為它更強大，而且

durable.

耐用。

As the SARS CoV-2 virus mutates, the virus side of the puzzle piece changes shape,

隨著SARS CoV-2病毒的變異，這塊拼圖的病毒面也在改變形狀。

and your antibody puzzle piece may not fit in with that virus puzzle piece anymore.

而你的抗體拼圖可能不再適合與病毒拼圖結合。

And so your immune system in a sense is not able to see the virus. And this is how

是以你的免疫系統在某種意義上無法看到病毒。而這就是為什麼

the virus mutates to where it can get around your immune system.

病毒變異到它可以繞過你的免疫系統。

This is why virologists are keeping such a close eye on the variants, they need to

這就是為什麼病毒學家對變種保持如此密切的關注，他們需要

know if these are the ones that can invade the current vaccines.

知道這些是否是可以侵入目前的疫苗。

So far we've been very lucky, all of the vaccines we have are effective against the

到目前為止，我們非常幸運，我們所擁有的所有疫苗都對該疾病有效。

variants, but it's really important that scientists, doctors, continue to do

變異體，但科學家、醫生繼續做下去真的很重要。

surveillance so really testing looking for new emerging variants to make sure that

監視，所以真正測試尋找新出現的變體，以確保

our vaccines remain effective, and many of the companies are already developing

我們的疫苗仍然有效，而且許多公司已經在開發

second generation, or you could think of them as booster vaccines, in case the virus

第二代疫苗，或者你可以把它們看作是加強型疫苗，以防止病毒

continues to mutate and it will.

繼續變異，而且會變異。

So while current vaccines are allowing our worlds to finally reopen, the areas that have

是以，雖然目前的疫苗允許我們的世界最終重新開放，但那些已經

limited access to those vaccines are also the places that have a higher likelihood of

獲得這些疫苗的機會有限的地方，也是更有可能發生的地方。

developing variants that could eventually evade them.

開發出的變體最終可以避開它們。

So the more people who are infected with a virus, the more opportunities the virus has

是以，感染病毒的人越多，病毒的機會就越多。

to replicate and with each replication to mutate. And so when you let the virus

來複制，並隨著每次複製而發生變異。是以，當你讓病毒

spread like wildfire that is when you see more variants emerge.

像野火一樣傳播的時候，就是你看到更多變種出現的時候。

Ah yes, yet another good reason to get yourself vaccinated as soon as you can and

啊，是的，又一個很好的理由讓你儘快接種疫苗，並且

as for the question of whether we'll have to get a booster COVID shot every year like the

至於我們是否要像美國人那樣每年打一針COVID加強針的問題。

flu shot, Dr Gounder says that that's an inaccurate comparison because the two

Gounder博士說，這是一個不準確的比較，因為這兩種疾病的發病率很高。

viruses mutate in completely different ways.

病毒以完全不同的方式變異。

The genetic code of the coronaviruses is really one long strand of genetic code. In

冠狀病毒的遺傳密碼實際上是一長串遺傳密碼。在

the case of influenza viruses, their genetic code is in eight different segments or

就流感病毒而言，它們的遺傳密碼分為八個不同的片段，即

strands, they can swap whole strands whole chunks of their genetic code and

縷，它們可以交換整縷整塊的遺傳密碼，並將其作為一個整體。

that's what allows them to mutate much more dramatically. In the case of

這就是讓它們能夠更大幅度地變異的原因。在這種情況下

coronaviruses they mutate really with just one letter changes in their genetic code

冠狀病毒在遺傳密碼上僅有一個字母的變化，就會發生真正的變異。

here and there. So after jumping species from animals to humans, the SARS-COV-2

這裡和那裡。是以，在從動物到人類的物種跳躍之後，SARS-COV-2

virus has been mutating a lot, but it's likely to level off and slow its rate of mutation

病毒已經發生了很多變異，但它可能會趨於平穩，並減緩其變異速度

way down.

下來的方式。

So we do you anticipate that we might need booster shots or next generation

那麼，我們是否預計我們可能需要打加強針或下一代疫苗？

situation where we're going to need yearly booster shots forever the way we do for

在這種情況下，我們將永遠需要每年打一次加強針，就像我們給孩子們打的那樣。

the flu.

流感。

Finally some good news. 0:05:04.012,1193:02:47.295 vaccines for COVID in the next couple of years here but we don't think this is a

終於有了一些好消息。0:05:04.012,1193:02:47.295在接下來的幾年裡，COVID的疫苗在這裡，但我們不認為這是一個

My advice is to get whatever vaccine, you can get now, because the longer you wait,

我的建議是接種任何疫苗，你現在就可以接種，因為你等得越久。

during that window while you're waiting, there's a very high chance that you could still

在你等待的那個窗口期間，有很大的機會你仍然可以

be exposed and infected, and the whole point of getting vaccinated is really

被暴露和感染，而接種疫苗的全部意義其實在於

to protect you from that so get what you can now and if there's something better

以保護你免受其害，所以現在你可以得到你能得到的東西，如果有更好的東西

down the line, you know, then at that point you can get that next generation vaccine,

你知道，在那個時候，你可以得到下一代疫苗。

but something in the future is not going to protect you right now.

但未來的東西是不能保護你現在的。