at the same time the one that generated the  most headlines, alarm and controversy. It was  

even a course subject or, at least, a  warning, even in schools. Do you remember?  

Perhaps this was largely because the  availability of usable energy sources in the past  

was much more limited than it is today. So much so that, as the bad omens were  

never fulfilled, the prophecies were  postponed again and again and again.  

One day the long-awaited end  of oil would be upon us!  

("The world will run out of oil in 10  years." – U.S. Bureau of Mines, in 1914)  

("The world will run out of oil in 13  years." – U.S. Department of the Interior,  

in 1939 and 1950) ("The world will run  

out of oil and other fossil fuels by 1990." –  Paul Ehrlich, The Limits to Growth, in 1972)  

("The world will run out of oil in 2030, and  other fossil fuels in 2050." – Paul Ehrlich,  

Beyond the Limit (2002)) As you can see, not a single  

one nailed it. Of course, what all these  people never took into account was the  

technological evolution that human beings  would continue to nurture over the years.  

And we are not only talking about oil. The  fear of running out of an abundant energy  

source was a constant among journalists,  analysts and experts of all kinds.  

In fact, today when we talk about fossil fuels,  what we usually care most about is pollution,  

but the truth is that for years it was not a  question of environmental awareness but of fear,  

fear of running out of supplies. In any case, the point is that we are  

in the 21st century and, with the exception  of nuclear energy, the whole world seems to  

be moving towards a future without fossil  fuels. The whole world? No, not the whole  

world! Along the lines of Asterix's village,  there is one country populated by unyielding  

samurai that is resisting against all odds. In recent years, Japan has gone against the global  

trend. Not only has it not reduced its consumption  of fossil fuels, it has actually increased it.  

You see, 2011 was something of a turning point for  Japan. The earthquake and the subsequent tsunami  

with its devastating effects on the Fukushima  nuclear power plant changed the country's approach  

to energy. If up to that point the Japanese had  embraced nuclear power, suddenly things were  

different. They wanted to look for alternatives. The Fukushima incident resulted in many of the  

country's nuclear reactors being shut down,  a situation that continues to this day.  

Obviously all that power had to  be supplied in some other way.

Yes, with renewables but also, initially,  with oil and gas, lots and lots of gas. 

So much so that in 2016, primary energy sources  from fossil fuels came to account for more  

than 90% of all national consumption, In a country with as few usable natural  

resources as Japan, this meant that more  than 80% of its energy needs had to be  

covered by imports. Japan is one of the most  energy-dependent countries in the world.  

The thing is that it set off all the alarm  bells in Tokyo. And it was not just an  

environmental issue, but also and above all a  strategic, economic and geopolitical issue.  

For a country like Japan to depend entirely on  the supply of fossil fuels of foreign origin  

and brought in by ship is a huge risk  to national security. Especially in an  

era when Xi Jinping has turned geopolitics  upside down in this region of the world.  

For years, Japanese politicians bet on nuclear  energy as the best way to gain autonomy. But  

what happens if you no longer want it or can  no longer count on it electorally? Let's just  

say that nuclear is not exactly the most  popular energy source in Japan right now.  

And precisely for this reason, the Japanese all  threw themselves into the development of renewable  

energies as if there were no tomorrow,  especially solar energy. But of course,  

replacing nuclear energy is a tall order. So the question, the big question on our minds is,  

what is the solution that the Japanese have  put on the table? What exactly have they come  

up with? Do they have any original ideas?  

Well, although one of the theories may surprise  you, one of the solutions to this whole mess is  

to become something like the new gas sheiks. Yes,  to become major producers at all costs. But there  

is one problem: they don't have any gas. At least  not what we all know as conventional natural gas.  

And right here, at this point, the time has come  to unveil what could become one of Japan's great  

strategic gambles: methane hydrate. Have you ever heard of this compound?  

I guess most of you haven't, am I wrong? Well... pay attention because we are going  

to tell you what it consists of, how you can  take advantage of it and what exactly Japan  

has in mind for it. Listen up.  

(FLAMMABLE ICE)  

Yes, you heard it right. We haven't  gone crazy. There is an "ice" that  

if you hold a flame to it, it ignites. It is called methane hydrate and is found  

in enormous quantities all over the planet.  Specifically under the ocean floor. And,  

take note, because it is precisely its location  that makes it one of the most desirable,  

but at the same time also one of the  most controversial raw materials.  

After all, not only are there unique and  fragile ecosystems on the ocean floor,  

but extracting raw materials from  the depths is a risky business.  

But to understand the importance of this resource,  we have to put environmental considerations  

aside for a moment and focus on its enormous  potential, which I think may surprise you.  

Why? Well, methane hydrate is the most  abundant source of carbon on Earth. It  

accounts for an estimated one-third of all the  carbon on the planet. And this is a huge deal,  

because estimates of global methane hydrate  reserves from the US Department of Energy  

suggest that its energy power could exceed  that of all other known fossil fuels.  

That is precisely why China is also  testing the extraction of this resource  

in the South China Sea. And indeed it is  something that Beijing could be taking into  

account when extending its maritime claims. However, we are talking about a compound  

that is highly unstable, highly flammable  and particularly sensitive to pressure and  

temperature. These characteristics mean  that its extraction is far from being as  

simple as traditional mining, that is digging,  collecting and transporting it to the mainland.  

So why are we talking about Japan and not other  countries when we refer to this flammable ice?  

Well, take a close look at this map for a better  understanding. Each of the green dots refers to  

known deposits of methane hydrate in the world. As you can see, the highest known concentration  

of this raw material is located  precisely around Japan.  

The Japanese coastline is literally dotted with  deposits of this compound. This is largely due  

to the confluence of tectonic plates and the  huge sedimentary deposits off its coast.  

So it's not so bad! At least there's  something good about being one of the  

most seismic-prone areas of the planet! Right?  

Well, you see, in this case the trade-off is that  Japan is one of the countries with the largest  

reserves of methane hydrate on the planet. To give you an idea, the Japanese government  

estimates that there are at least 24.7 trillion  cubic feet, that's 7 trillion cubic meters of  

methane hydrate in offshore deposits in  its territory. That could be enough to  

meet Japan's entire gas consumption for almost  a century. And there could be much more hydrate. 

Precisely for this reason there is little  doubt that methane hydrate extraction could  

guarantee energy supply for a very, very  long time. Obviously not only in Japan.  

But... let's take a minute, because it's not  that simple. The problem is that we still don't  

know very well how to take advantage of it,  in particular how to extract and process it.  

Well, today there are two ways to do it.  One, let's call it conventional, and another,  

let's say a little more revolutionary,  which is what Japan is trying to develop.  

The traditional way is to extract this resource by  drilling into the seabed at depths of about 3,200  

feet, that's around 1,000 meters. Keep in mind  that the deposits are not in the water itself,  

but are located several hundred feet below the  seabed, which implies additional complexity  

and such high costs that, at present,  this option is not commercially viable.  

And then there is the more revolutionary  way, which is what Japan is working on.  

Companies like Modec and Mitsubishi  Shipbuilding are developing extraction  

vessels that are capable of safely extracting  methane hydrate deposits closer to shore.  

This would be done by "puncturing" the seabed  until reaching the reservoir, and letting the  

methane hydrate rise to the extractor vessel,  which in turn could rely on other auxiliary  

vessels to transport it to shore or even store  it and transform it into methane gas in situ.  

Seems simple, doesn't it? Well, the truth is that it is not  

at all. The technical complexity comes above all,  as we mentioned before, because of the instability  

of this resource and also because of the risk of  contamination, since, if it is not done properly,  

high quantities of methane could be released  into the sea and then into the atmosphere.  

And obviously, this is not good either near or  far from the coast, but near is even worse.  

What's more, beyond the risks, the  extraction itself is technically  

complicated. Let's say that during  the drilling process there is a risk  

of sand or anything else entering  the reservoir through the borehole,  

and that could destabilize the methane hydrate  to the point of rendering it unusable.  

Anyway, that's what they're working on. The goal  is to get gas, gas and more gas, and make it as  

cheap as possible for the Japanese. But let's not miss a key detail here:  

Japan aspires to become a hydrogen-producing  powerhouse, producing hydrogen precisely  

from the gas extracted from methane hydrate  deposits. A kind of "Little Red Hen” approach.  

And as we covered recently in a video  about hydrogen – which by the way,  

I'll link for you in the description  – the implications could be enormous.  

But wait a minute, so long as we are talking  about methane hydrate, what on earth is hydrogen  

doing here? Listen up.  

(JAPAN'S SPRINGBOARD TO HYDROGEN?) Well, as we told you in the hydrogen video,  

this fuel can be produced in several different  ways. The most common is to produce it using coal,  

natural gas or, more recently,  renewable energies as well.  

Well, here is the key to Japan's  energy intentions: to extract  

methane hydrate and use it to produce hydrogen. To give you an idea, one cubic meter of methane  

hydrate can produce approximately 160 cubic meters  of methane gas, which can then also be converted  

into hydrogen. In this way, countries with  large methane hydrate deposits, such as Japan,  

could move very quickly to hydrogen and use it  as a clean fuel that is not dependent on imports. 

In fact, hydrogen is an increasingly important  pillar of the Japanese government's energy  

strategy, which hopes to boost hydrogen  consumption to over 20 million tons by  

2050. A relatively high target – especially if  we take into account that per unit weight the  

energy output of hydrogen is three times  that of gasoline – but one that will only  

be possible to achieve if production  costs can be substantially reduced.  

Thus, the Japanese government's plan is to reduce  the cost of hydrogen production from 100 to 20 yen  

per cubic meter. That is, from 91 to 18 cents.  And to achieve that goal, among other things,  

the country needs a very competitive energy  supply. Potentially methane hydrate.  

Not only that, but producing hydrogen from  methane hydrate gas would be cleaner than from  

other sources, as methane hydrate emits 30% less  carbon dioxide when burned than coal or oil does. 

The question is, will it be possible to  harness methane hydrate on a commercial scale,  

and will it be economically viable?  And then another question to ask is...  

will the take off of hydrogen  accelerate thanks to methane hydrate?  

(Japan eyes undersea 'fire ice' as source  of clean-burning hydrogen - Nikkei Asia)  

As you can see, this is the energy  revolution that Japan is trying to enter.  

A strategy that would then be complemented  by carbon capture technologies. In this way,  

Japan could achieve enormous energy autonomy. But will it ever be feasible? That is not clear,  

but for the record, in 2017, the Land  of the Rising Sun did manage to extract  

methane hydrate for 24 days without  any technical incident through its  

experimental project in the Nankai pit. Not only that, the government believes it  

will be able to get commercial methane  hydrate projects off the ground between  

2023 and 2027. Or at least that is what  its latest Strategic Energy Plan says.  

So do you think that we should take advantage  of the gas that is "dormant" in methane hydrate  

deposits on a massive scale? Or do you  think that this type of extraction should  

not be carried out under any circumstances  due to the environmental risks involved?  

Leave us your opinion below,  in the comments. And as always,  

if you found this video interesting, don't  forget to like and subscribe to Visualpolitik.  

Once again, thank you for being there.  Take care and see you next time.