property developers.

房地產開發商。

Or being one of its 200,000 employees.

或者成為其20萬名員工中的一員。

Then, you find out that that very company is also the most indebted property developer

然後，你發現那家公司也是負債最多的房地產開發商。

in the world, to the tune of $300 billion.

在世界範圍內，達到3000億美元的規模。

As Evergrande teeters on the edge of default, collapse would have grave consequences for

由於恆大在違約邊緣徘徊，倒閉將對其造成嚴重後果。

hundreds of thousands of property buyers and retail customers.

數以十萬計的房產買家和零售客戶。

After years of borrowing to fuel its rapid growth, Chinese behemoth Evergrande is facing

經過多年的借貸來推動其快速增長，中國的巨頭恆大正面臨著

a major crisis, spooking markets and prompting comparisons to the collapse of U.S. investment

一場重大危機，使市場受到驚嚇，並促使人們將其與美國投資的崩潰相比較。

bank Lehman Brothers in 2008.

2008年，雷曼兄弟銀行。

So, is this China's “Lehman brothers” moment?

那麼，這是中國的 "雷曼兄弟 "時刻嗎？

Emily Tan, CNBC's senior correspondent for our Hong Kong bureau, has been in the thick

CNBC香港分社的高級記者艾米麗-譚，一直都在忙於工作。

of the action since the warning signs emerged.

的行動，因為警告信號出現了。

Emily, you're one of the best people I know to clue us in into what's going on with

艾米麗，你是我認識的最好的人之一，可以為我們提供線索，讓我們知道發生了什麼事。

the Evergrande crisis.

恆大的危機。

So thanks for doing this.

是以，感謝你這樣做。

It's good to be here.

來到這裡真好。

I think to understand the whole scale of it, we have to start from the beginning.

我認為要了解它的整個規模，我們必須從頭開始。

So what is Evergrande, and is it just a real estate company?

那麼，什麼是恆大，它只是一家房地產公司嗎？

Evergrande was founded by Hui Ka Yan in 1996 in Guangzhou and basically rode China's

恆大由許家印於1996年在廣州創立，基本上是騎在中國的頭上。

property boom.

財產熱潮。

Evergrande is one of China's largest real estate developers.

恆大是中國最大的房地產開發商之一。

It is number two by sales.

按銷售額計算，它排在第二位。

It is listed in Hong Kong but based in Shenzhen.

它在香港上市，但總部在深圳。

It owns more than 1,300 residential projects across more than 280 cities.

它在280多個城市擁有1300多個住宅項目。

And as it has made its name in residential property, it also has interests in electric

由於它在住宅地產方面的名氣很大，所以它在電力方面也有興趣。

vehicles to theme parks from insurance, even to bottled water.

從車輛到主題公園的保險，甚至到瓶裝水。

It also has a soccer team, Guangzhou FC, which built the world's biggest soccer school

它也有一支足球隊，即廣州足球俱樂部，它建立了世界上最大的足球學校。

and has a soccer stadium under construction to go with it.

並有一個正在建設中的足球場與之配套。

The warning signs of a potential collapse appeared as early as 2018, when Evergrande

早在2018年就出現了潛在崩潰的警告信號，當時恆大

was flagged as a risk by China's central bank.

被中國央行標記為風險。

So how did it get to this point of incurring such a big debt?

那麼，它是如何走到這一步招致如此大的債務的呢？

Evergrande borrowed to finance all of its pursuits and its debt ballooned.

恆大借錢來為其所有的追求提供資金，其債務不斷膨脹。

It has since accumulated over $300 billion in debt, giving it the title of the world's

此後，它積累了超過3000億美元的債務，使其獲得了世界上最大的債務國的稱號。

most indebted developer.

欠債最多的開發商。

You can compare that with Russia's state debt of $257 billion in 2020.

你可以將其與俄羅斯2020年2570億美元的國債進行比較。

It also sold $6.5 billion in high yield management products, and that's to an estimated 80,000 investors.

它還出售了65億美元的高收益管理產品，而這是向大約8萬名投資者出售的。

And then there's the homebuyers that pre-paid for 1.6 million flats that have still yet

還有那些預付了160萬套住房的購房者，他們還沒有為自己的房子買單。

to be delivered.

將要交付的。

I wanted to talk about China's three red lines, right.

我想談一談中國的三條紅線，對。

And it's part of their policy to improve the financial health of the real estate sector.

而這也是他們改善房地產行業財務健康的政策的一部分。

Would you be able to give a brief explanation?

你能簡單解釋一下嗎？

There are these three red lines.

有這三條紅線。

The government developed this system to curb borrowing.

政府制定這一制度是為了遏制借貸。

First, to ensure a liability to asset ratio of less than 70%.

首先，確保負債與資產的比率低於70%。

Then, the next line, net gearing ratio of less than 100%.

然後，下一行，淨資產負債率低於100%。

And the third line, cash to short-term debt ratio of at least one.

而第三行，現金與短期債務的比率至少為1。

If you cross all three of these lines, which Evergrande does, this will restrict you from

如果你越過了這三條線，而恆大就是這樣做的，這將限制你從

borrowing more money.

借用更多的錢。

Besides being at the mercy of these policies, what else caused Evergrande to be where it is today?

除了受這些政策的擺佈，還有什麼原因導致恆大走到今天？

A few years ago, China's most acquisitive companies were all forced to downsize following

幾年前，中國最具收購能力的公司都被迫縮減規模。

debt-fuelled shopping sprees.

債務驅動的購物狂歡。

Names like Dalian Wanda, Anbang, HNA and Fosun.

像大連萬達、安邦、海航和復星這些名字。

Evergrande has warned investors about its cashflow issues and in September, even flagged

恆大已經警告投資者其現金流問題，在9月，甚至標明瞭

depressed flat sales, and it was having trouble finding buyers for all of its assets.

蕭條的銷售，而且它很難為其所有資產找到買家。

Evergrande recently stopped repaying investors and suppliers, halting building work at its

恆大最近停止了對投資者和供應商的付款，並停止了其建築工程。

housing projects, and we've also heard reports now that it has stopped paying employees and suppliers.

住房項目，而且我們現在還聽到報告說，它已經停止向僱員和供應商付款。

We've seen protests, and they've showed up in their Shenzhen headquarters demanding payments

我們已經看到了抗議活動，他們在深圳總部出現，要求付款

on their wealth management products

關於他們的財富管理產品

Evergrande has recently hired a debt restructuring company, Houlihan Lokey, who has advised names

恆大最近聘請了一家債務重組公司Houlihan Lokey，該公司曾為恆大提供諮詢服務。

like Lehman, Enron and WorldCom.

如雷曼、安然和世通。

If the talk of a potential economic downturn triggered by a housing bubble sounds familiar,

如果關於由房地產保麗龍引發的潛在經濟衰退的談論聽起來很熟悉。

it's because it is.

這是因為它是。

13 years ago, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis culminated with the largest bankruptcy filing

13年前，美國次級抵押貸款危機以最大的破產申請而達到高潮

in U.S. history then, which led to the global financial crisis.

當時在美國曆史上，這導致了全球金融危機的發生。

What is the domino effect of the Evergrande crisis?

恆大危機的多米諾骨牌效應是什麼？

We're gonna be watching the effects on homebuyers as well as investors, because we have some

我們將關注對購房者以及投資者的影響，因為我們有一些

buyers paying mortgages on projects that have been suspended.

購買者支付已暫停的項目的抵押貸款。

And then there are the banks, there are some 125 financial institutions, 121 non-financial

然後是銀行，大約有125家金融機構，121家非金融機構。

institutions with liabilities.

有負債的機構。

Then there's the suppliers.

然後是供應商。

For example, if you look at some of these suppliers in Japan, toilet maker Toto is likely

例如，如果你看一下日本的一些供應商，馬桶製造商Toto可能是

a supplier, as China accounted for 30% of its profits in 2020.

一個供應商，因為中國在2020年佔其利潤的30%。

And then there's the air conditioning manufacturer Daikin, which gets 25% of its sales from China.

還有空調製造商大金公司，其25%的銷售額來自中國。

Then there are some real estate developers, and some of them are highly distressed real

然後有一些房地產開發商，其中一些是高度不良的房地產

estate companies, at the risk of collapse.

房地產公司，面臨崩潰的危險。

They are tiny, on their own, but collectively they make up 10 – 15% of the total market.

它們本身是很小的，但合起來卻佔了整個市場的10-15%。

Analysts say if they do collapse, this could result in a systemic spill over to other parts

分析師說，如果它們真的崩潰了，這可能會導致系統性地蔓延到其他地區。

of the economy.

的經濟。

Then, we worry about the financial system.

然後，我們擔心的是金融系統。

Li Daokui, he's a former advisor to the PBOC, he expects minimal spill over to the

李稻葵，他是中國人民銀行的前顧問，他預計對中國人民銀行的溢出效應最小。

financial system, and that's because there aren't derivative instruments built on the

金融系統，這是因為沒有建立在 "金融系統 "上的衍生工具。

Evergrande debt.

恆大的債務。

Derivatives are financial contracts that derive their value from the prices of other things,

衍生品是金融合同，其價值來自於其他事物的價格。

such as stocks, mortgages, currencies or commodities such as a barrel of oil.

如股票、抵押貸款、貨幣或商品，如一桶石油。

These instruments are generally used to minimize investment risks or for speculation.

這些工具一般用於最大限度地降低投資風險或用於投機。

So people ask, will this be a Lehman event?

所以人們問，這將是一個雷曼事件嗎？

Well, because there are no derivative instruments, we shouldn't see it play out in exactly

好吧，因為沒有衍生工具，我們不應該看到它完全發揮出來。

the same way, but economic growth will take a hit.

同樣的方式，但經濟增長將受到打擊。

Then there's the shareholders, Chinese Estates.

然後是股東，中國房地產公司。

It is the biggest shareholder behind the company's chairman Hui Ka Yan, and they announced their

它是公司董事長許家印背後的最大股東，他們宣佈了他們的

intention to sell down their entire stake in the company.

打算出售他們在該公司的全部股份。

They said that the company's directors are cautious and concerned about recent developments.

他們說，公司的董事們對最近的事態發展持謹慎和關注態度。

Real estate in China is estimated to account for more than a quarter of the country's

據估計，中國的房地產佔全國總產值的四分之一以上。

GDP, so any fallout will result in many angry investors, doomed businesses and a very worried

是以，任何後果都將導致許多憤怒的投資者、註定失敗的企業和一個非常擔心的

government.

政府。

But, can the property market be stabilized?

但是，房地產市場能夠穩定下來嗎？

So everyone's asking whether or not there will be a government bailout, no one is really

所以每個人都在問是否會有政府救助，沒有人真的

sure.

確實如此。

But here are a couple of signs indicating that we may not see that.

但這裡有幾個跡象表明，我們可能不會看到這一點。

The editor-in-chief at the Global Times, which is a publication viewed as a Communist Party

被視為共產黨出版品的《環球時報》的主編。

mouthpiece, declared Evergrande, quote unquote, “not too big to fail”.

喉舌宣佈恆大 "不至於失敗"。

And so, the company should not count on a bailout.

是以，該公司不應指望得到救助。

But then there's also policymakers that have told lenders to extend their payment deadlines

但也有政策制定者告訴貸款人延長付款期限的情況

and rollover loans to Evergrande.

和對恆大的滾動貸款。

Some say China would be compelled to step in if the contagion was far reaching, like

有人說，如果傳染病影響深遠，中國將被迫介入，比如

if there were multiple developers.

如果有多個開發商的話。

But one company failing on its own, would be unlikely.

但是，一家公司單獨失敗，將是不可能的。

But wasn't there a precedence for government bailout for debt ridden companies in China?

但是，在中國，政府對債務纏身的公司進行救助不是有先例嗎？

Yeah, we can take an example from Huarong Asset Management.

是的，我們可以從華融資產管理公司舉一個例子。

This was China's biggest bad debt manager which secured a rescue package from some of

這是中國最大的壞賬管理人，從一些國家獲得了救援方案。

the country's biggest financial firms.

該國最大的金融公司。

Its plight had become the biggest test in decades of whether Beijing would shield state-owned

它的困境已成為幾十年來對北京是否會保護國有企業的最大考驗。

firms from market forces amid a renewed push by President Xi Jinping to rein in debt growth

在國家主席習近平重新推動控制債務增長的背景下，企業從市場力量中獲益。

as defaults have hit records.

因為違約金已經創下記錄。

So what we're going to be watching out for is whether President Xi will balance setting

是以，我們將關注的是，習主席是否會平衡設置

the precedent of a very expensive state organised bailout, knowing that the government can't

一個非常昂貴的國家組織的救助的先例，知道政府不能

save all distressed developers.

拯救所有陷入困境的開發商。

And not to mention, it doesn't really jive with his vision for common prosperity, and

更不用說，這與他對共同繁榮的願景並不一致，而且

an equitable society, it has no room for rescuing Hui Ka Yan, who at one point was China's

一個公平的社會，它沒有空間去拯救許家印，他曾一度是中國的

richest man.

最富有的人。

Emily, what is the biggest takeaway from this?

艾米麗，從中得到的最大收穫是什麼？

You know, it touches so many people, it's not just about an investment.

你知道，它觸動了這麼多的人，它不僅僅是一項投資。

Real estate makes up more than a quarter of the Chinese economy.

房地產佔中國經濟的四分之一以上。

This is about people's housing, they're paying mortgages for homes that have not even been

這關係到人們的住房，他們正在為甚至還沒有的房屋支付抵押貸款。

delivered yet.

尚未交付。

People are just trying to build themselves a future.

人們只是試圖為自己建立一個未來。

The story continues to unfold.

故事繼續展開。

Thanks everyone for watching this video,

感謝大家觀看這個視頻。

don't forget to subscribe

不要忘記訂閱

and while you're at it, let us know what do you think about China's real estate crisis. Stay safe.

當你在這裡的時候，讓我們知道你對中國的房地產危機有什麼看法。保持安全。