Name: 下一次住房崩盤--銀行不想讓你知道的5件事 (The Next Housing Crash - 5 Things Banks Don’t Want You To Know)
Uploaded: 2022-12-26T18:10:50.000Z
Duration: 11 min 28 s

動名詞

Just a little over a year ago, people would  laugh at you for saying that home prices are  

就在一年多以前，人們會嘲笑你說，房價是

to 不定詞

going to collapse. Zero rates kept mortgage  rates so affordable that it didn't matter  

將要崩潰了。零利率使抵押貸款利率如此實惠，以至於無所謂

how high were the home prices. It made sense  since the mortgage was split between 30 years,  

房價有多高。這是有道理的，因為抵押貸款是分30年進行的。

which would reduce your monthly payments to just  a few thousand dollars. But the post covid boom  

這將使你的月付款減少到只有幾千美元。但是，ovid繁榮之後

is now over. Interest rates are at over 4 percent,  and mortgage rates have risen to over 7 percent.  

現在已經結束。利率在4%以上，抵押貸款利率已經上升到7%以上。  

Now buying a house seems less attractive than  it was when rates were around at 3 to 4 percent.  

現在買房子似乎沒有以前利率在3%到4%左右時那麼有吸引力。  

a single percentage does play an important  role. It could make a difference of a hundred,  

一個單一的百分比確實起著重要的作用。它可能會造成一百的差異。

if not a few hundred thousand dollars over the  course of the mortgage. And now imagine how much  

如果不是在抵押貸款過程中的幾十萬美元。而現在想象一下，有多少

of a difference a few percentage points make! At the beginning of the year, the Fed was  

幾個百分點所帶來的差異!在今年年初，美聯儲在

convinced that if it is going to raise the rates,  it was definitely going to stop inflation. That  

確信如果它要提高利率，它肯定要阻止通貨膨脹。這

seemed convincing because that's how it works.  When inflation is rising too fast, you raise the  

似乎很有說服力，因為這就是它的運作方式。  當通脹率上升過快時，你會提高

rates, but as we are seeing that even though the  rates are at over 4%, inflation is still there! 

但正如我們所看到的，即使利率超過4%，通貨膨脹仍在那裡！"。

Yeah, it has declined a little bit,  but it's still pretty much there! 

是的，它已經下降了一點，但它仍然是相當的。

So the question is, why is  inflation not decreasing  

是以，問題是，為什麼通貨膨脹沒有減少

even though the Fed has raised the rates? Here is what raising rates are going to do!  

即使美聯儲已經提高了利率？以下是加息的後果!  

It's going to crash the demand, and let me tell  you this, crashing the demand doesn't necessarily  

這將使需求崩潰，讓我告訴你，崩潰的需求不一定是

fix the problem. Crashing the demand means making  people poorer so they won't be able to afford what  

解決這個問題。粉碎需求意味著讓人們更窮，所以他們將無法負擔得起什麼

they could afford so because people are now  poorer, companies have to decrease prices to  

因為人們現在更窮了，所以公司不得不降低價格以滿足他們的需要。

be able to sell their products and services.  But prices don't always rise because there  

能夠銷售他們的產品和服務。  但價格並不總是上漲，因為有

is too much demand. There are other factors  that influence the price, such as the cost of  

是需求太多。還有其他影響價格的因素，如成本

producing the product or the shipping cost. Definitely, zero rates did play the biggest  

生產產品或運輸成本。肯定的是，零利率確實發揮了最大的作用

role in creating this inflation in the first  place, but you have to consider the fact that,  

首先在製造這種通貨膨脹中發揮了作用，但你必須考慮到這樣一個事實。

During the Covid era, we also had people  unemployed and sitting at their homes  

在科維德時代，我們也有失業的人，坐在家裡。

with very little savings to survive. The covid era had the biggest impact  

只有很少的儲蓄才能生存。科維德時代的影響最大

on the housing market. Prices rose faster than  they had risen prior to the last housing crash  

在住房市場上。價格上漲的速度比上一次房市崩盤前的上漲速度還要快

that devastated the entire economy. There was  an almost 38 percent increase in just 2 years,  

這對整個經濟造成了破壞。在短短2年內有近38%的增長。

and now it seems like the pyramid is about  to collapse. Home prices across the country  

而現在看來，這個金字塔即將坍塌。全國的房屋價格

are falling down. In San Jose, prices are  down 9.4%, Seattle 8.2, and Oakland 7.6. 

正在下降。在聖何塞，價格下降了9.4%，西雅圖8.2，奧克蘭7.6。

The question is, are we about to witness another  housing crash? Will the next housing crash be as  

問題是，我們是否將見證另一次住房崩潰？下一次住房崩潰會不會像

disastrous as the 2008 crash? And how can  you prepare yourself not only to protect  

災難性的2008年的崩潰？以及你如何能夠為自己做好準備，不僅是為了保護

yourself but take advantage of this crisis? We will answer all of these questions and  

你自己卻利用了這場危機？我們將回答所有這些問題，並

many more, but before we do that, give  this video a thumbs up and let's dive in.

還有很多，但在這之前，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們深入瞭解一下。

If a year ago, most people still expected home  prices to keep rising, the situation is much  

如果說一年前，大多數人還預計房價會持續上漲，那麼現在的情況就大不相同了。

different now. Morgan STANLEY expects home prices  to finish this year with 4 percent. That might  

現在不同了。摩根斯坦利預計今年的房價將以4%的速度完成。這可能

seem still optimistic, but given the fact that  they have been growing by over 20 percent over  

似乎仍然很樂觀，但考慮到他們一直在以超過20%的速度增長的事實。

the last few years, that's scary! Home prices  are still rising in some places like New York  

在過去的幾年裡，這是可怕的!紐約等一些地方的房價仍在上漲

or California, in places where your average folk  wont be able to afford a house, But overall they  

或加州，在那些你的普通人無法買得起房子的地方，但總體而言，他們

are failing in many other places. House prices  are already stratospherically high that only the  

在其他許多地方都失敗了。房價已經高到了平流層的程度，只有

top 1 percent can afford them! And it still makes  sense to buy them since people are willing to pay  

最高的1%的人可以買得起!既然人們願意支付，購買它們仍然是有意義的。

fortunes just to rent a room in New York City. But there is always a ceiling. Doesn't matter  

僅僅為了在紐約市租一個房間而發財。但總是有一個上限。這並不重要

how great life is in New York, if home prices  decline enough across the country, that will  

紐約的生活有多好，如果全國的房價下降得足夠多，那就會

drag down the rest of the market, including  big cities such as New York or Los Angeles. 

拖累了市場的其他部分，包括紐約或洛杉磯等大城市。

Some expect prices to fall by 4 percent, others by  over 10 percent. But in order for it to match the  

一些人預計價格將下降4%，另一些人預計將超過10%。但為了使其與

2008 crash, then prices have to decline by over 27  percent. The 27 percent decline wasn't over just  

2008年的崩潰，那麼價格必須下降超過27%。27%的跌幅並沒有結束，只是

over the course of a year but rather 4 years.  If we assume that home prices will lose as much  

在一年的時間裡，而是4年。  如果我們假設房屋價格將損失多達

value as they have gained over the covid era, then  that's a possibility. And let me remind you that  

價值，因為它們在科維德時代已經獲得，那麼這就是一種可能性。而且讓我提醒你

prices since march 2020 are up by 38 percent. If they just decline by half of that over the  

自2020年3月以來，價格上漲了38%。如果他們只是下降了一半，超過了

course of the next 12 months for unknown  reasons, like people no longer taking  

在未來12個月內，由於未知的原因，如人們不再服用

mortgages because they are simply too expensive. A  half-million-dollar house at a 3 percent mortgage  

抵押貸款，因為它們實在是太貴了。一個50萬美元的房子，3%的抵押貸款

rate equals around 2K dollars monthly payment,  while at 7 percent means a 3K dollar payment. An  

匯率相當於每月支付2千美元左右，而7%意味著支付3千美元。一個

extra thousand dollars is a huge difference in  a country where over 60 percent of people can't  

在一個60%以上的人無法使用的國家裡，額外的一千美元是一個巨大的差異。

even pull out a thousand-dollar emergency. Think about it this way, let's say there  

甚至掏出一千美元的緊急情況。這樣想吧，假設有

are 10 chocolate bars in the entire  economy and 10 dollars. That's it,  

是整個經濟中的10條巧克力和10美元。就這樣了。

that's your entire economy. In this hypothetical  example, 1 chocolate bar equals one dollar.  

這就是你的整個經濟。在這個假設的例子中，1根巧克力棒等於1美元。  

That's what it means that prices are set by  supply and demand, the essence of capitalism.

這就是價格由供求關係決定的意思，是資本主義的本質。

Let's say now that we have doubled the number  of dollars in this economy now, instead of 10  

比方說，現在我們在這個經濟體中的美元數量增加了一倍，而不是10倍

dollars, we have 20 dollars, but the number of  chocolate bars is still the same, which is 10. 

美元，我們有20美元，但巧克力棒的數量仍然是相同的，即10塊。

In this scenario, one chocolate bar would equal 2  dollars since supply and demand determine prices.  

在這種情況下，一塊巧克力等於2美元，因為供應和需求決定價格。  

Now replace chocolate bars with houses, and you  understand what's has been happening the last  

現在把巧克力棒換成房子，你就會明白過去發生了什麼。

2 years. More money that has been thrown out  of nowhere was the primary reason that caused  

2年了。更多的錢不知道從哪裡扔出來的，是造成的主要原因

the price hikes, now the fed has been trying  to do the absolute opposite since February,  

漲價，現在美聯儲自2月以來一直試圖做絕對相反的事情。

taking that money out of the economy which is  why prices have been falling but it seems like  

把這些錢從經濟中拿出來，這就是為什麼價格一直在下降，但似乎是

not everything is going according to the plan. But do you realize what it means for home prices? 

並非一切都在按計劃進行。但你是否意識到這對房價意味著什麼？

Exactly! Going back to the pre covid period. Of course, they will not go back as much  

正是如此!回到科維德之前的時期。當然，他們不會回到那麼多。

as they were before, but even a 20  percent decrease would be disastrous. 

但即使是20%的下降也是災難性的。

The fed knows that, and they have a strategy.  They don't really care if prices decrease by  

美聯儲知道這一點，而且他們有一個策略。  他們並不真正關心價格是否下降了

20 percent or 40 percent. People won't  panic and will gradually adapt to the  

20％或40％。人們不會驚慌失措，會逐漸適應

new reality as long as it happens smoothly  and gradually. So the crisis wouldn't be  

新的現實，只要它順利地和逐步地發生。是以，危機就不會是

as bad as it might be if prices fell by  20 percent in a matter of a few months.

如果價格在幾個月內下降20%，可能會很糟糕。

After successfully crashing the entire stock  market, sending crypto to the absolute bottom,  

在成功地使整個股票市場崩潰之後，將加密貨幣送到了絕對的底部。

and crashing home prices in many cities across  the country, inflation for October has been 7.7  

和全國許多城市的房價崩潰，10月份的通貨膨脹率為7.7

percent. Honesty, I don't know what's the peak  of hiking the rates, I would love to know that,  

百分比。誠實地說，我不知道加息的高峰是什麼，我很想知道。

but let's just hope it ain't going to continue  because the consequences seem very terrifying.

但我們只希望它不會繼續下去，因為其後果似乎非常可怕。

Here is what I think would be the right thing to  do. By the way, this is not financial advice. If  

以下是我認為應該做的事情。順便說一下，這不是財務建議。如果

you have been holding stocks, then everything has  fallen to rock bottom. Asset prices, like stocks  

你一直持有股票，那麼一切都已跌至谷底。資產價格，如股票

and house prices, will most likely further decline  over the course of the next 6 months until we know  

和房價，很可能會在未來6個月內進一步下降，直到我們知道

for sure how high the fed is willing to raise the  rates. Around mid-December, the fed is going to  

可以肯定的是，美聯儲願意將利率提高到多高。12月中旬左右，美聯儲將

announce how much more it will raise the rates. If the rate hike would be by more than 50 basis  

宣佈它將再提高多少利率。如果加息將超過50個基點

points, then it seems like the fed is seriously  willing to collapse everything just to bring  

點，那麼看來美聯儲是真的願意崩潰一切，只是為了把

inflation down, but I guess it wanted to  send a message over the course of this year  

通貨膨脹下降，但我想它想在今年的過程中發出一個資訊

that if the fed is saying it will raise the  rates, it will ! and will crash the market! 

如果美聯儲說它將提高利率，它將！並將使市場崩潰！"。

No one should think that he is  above the fed because prior to 2022,  

沒有人應該認為他是凌駕於美聯儲之上的，因為在2022年之前。

no one took the fed seriously when it  kept saying that it might raise the rates. 

當美聯儲不斷說它可能提高利率時，沒有人認真對待。

So, we might not have reached the bottom yet.  Even if we have reached it, the fed won't bring  

是以，我們可能還沒有到達底部。  即使我們已經達到了，美聯儲也不會把

down the rates overnight. It will gradually  bring them down unless the fed decides to  

徹夜降低利率。它將逐漸使它們下降，除非美聯儲決定

hike the rates to 20 percent, as did in the  1980s. But I don't think that's happening. 

將利率提高到20%，就像1980年代那樣。但我不認為這正在發生。

It won't make sense to take a mortgage  within the next 24 months since rates  

在未來24個月內進行抵押貸款是沒有意義的，因為利率

aren't coming down most likely so those  who hold cash will rip off the market. 

很可能不會下降，所以那些持有現金的人將從市場上撕掉。

That's it for today, thanks for  watching, and see you in the next one.

今天的節目就到這裡，感謝大家的觀看，下期節目再見。