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After a decade working "in the dark," Elizabeth Holmes introduced Theranos to the world. Her
blood-testing device called Edison was so revolutionary that it was about to turn the entire
healthcare industry upside down. This technology wasn't just another breakthrough in healthcare
but had the potential to reshape the entire world. Vice President Joe Biden came to visit her Labs,
Henry Kissinger, James Mattis former defense se cretary joined the board of the company,
and America's richest family (Walton) was ready to give her as much money as she wants
just to make sure that this technology wouldn't fall into the wrong hands.
Little did all of these people know that this little girl
is just fooling the American government and the country's wealthiest people.
In 2003 , a 19-year-old teenager from Stanford decided to start her own company. Elizabeth Holmes
wasn't an ordinary student. She used to wear a black turtleneck and was deeply inspired by
Steve Jobs. Getting into Stanford is a challenge by itself but Her ambitions were much bigger than
just Stanford. She wanted to change the world with her inventions and leave her mark in the history
books like Thomas Edison, Bill Gates, and Steve Jobs. The only problem was, she didn't know what
exactly she should invent to make a difference. But that quickly changed when she stumbled
across an idea of a wearable patch that could adjust the dosage of drug delivery
and notify doctors of variables in patients' blood. However, that seemed impossible because
blood tests, first of all, take at least a few days and secondly are expensive. Most people
can't afford to do blood tests on a regular basis. So she started developing lab-on-a-chip technology
for blood tests, with the idea to start a company that would make blood tests cheaper,
more convenient, and accessible to consumers. Finally, she has an idea that could change
the world forever. She dropped out of Standford
while she was a teenager and started a company called "Real-Time Cures”. She quickly realized
the power of marketing and if she wants to be like Steve Jobs, she needs to market like steve jobs.
So she changed the name of the company to Theranos, a combination
of the words "therapy" and "diagnosis". Just a year after finding the company,
Holmes raised 6.9 million dollars valuing the company at 30 million dollars. She was
the new cool kid in the town. She was so good at convincing people that by 2007,
she raised another 43.2 million dollars at a 197 million dollar valuation. Theranos was booming,
investors were lining up to give Holmes the money she wants to develop her technology.
But what exactly Theranos was developing?
Blood testing has changed the world since blood types were discovered
in 1930. Since then we have learned to discover STDs, cancer, and a lot of other problems
through blood testing and prevent them before they get serious. But it's not easy or cheap. While a
blood test is simple for you—with the exception of feeling "a little pinch"—the actual diagnostic
process behind the scenes is quite complex, requiring specialized equipment and technicians.
And if something slightly goes wrong, the blood results are going to be wrong. So the industry
has been mostly controlled by a few giants. But that was about to change because what
Theranos was promising wouldn't just change the industry but the entire world!
Holmes named her invention Edison. This machine required very little blood, a few drops from your
fingerpick, and could run hundreds of tests within a few hours. So instead of taking a lot of blood
from your veins with big needles that will be sent to the lab for a few days for testing. You could
place this machine in the store and people can blood tests much more frequently and stop
diseases like cancer when they are just starting. It was easy to imagine how such a machine wouldn't
just be placed in every store across the country (USA) but in every store in
every part of the world. Investors were lining up
to buy a piece of her company, especially those who missed the opportunity to invest
in Facebook a few years ago. After a few rounds of funding, Theranos was valued at 1 billion dollars.
After 10 years of working, she claimed that her technology, validated by FDA and was used by the
military on the battlefield. Investors were sold. The Walton family invested 150 million dollars.
Robert Murdock invested 125 million dollars. In 2014, With over $400 million in funding,
Theranos was valued at nearly $9 billion. Holmes effectively became a multi-millionaire
thanks to her 50% stake. She appeared on the Forbes magazine cover page,
times' most influential people, the NYT, fortune, and so on. She was seen as the next Steve Jobs,
especially when jobs recently passed away. Overall, she raised 900 million dollars to
fund Theranos, and Thanks to her 50 percent ownership of the company,
her net worth exceeded 5 billion dollars once Theranos crossed the 10 billion dollar mark.
But not everything was sunshine and rainbows, what she didn't know is that wall street journalists
were secretly investigating her technology and were about to bring her company to knees!
Just days before Theranos's Series C-3 funding where the company had sought to
raise an additional $200 million. Wall Street Journal released their article
criticizing Theranos's blood-testing device. That infuriated the investors, Homles did
everything she could but the damage has already been made. When the world knew that Theranos was
actually rigging their test results, that was a death sentence. Her partners one by
one began detaching themselves from her and closing the labs.
But that was just the beginning because little did she know that she might end up spending
the rest of her life in prison! Holmes denied all the claims,
calling the Journal a "tabloid" and promising the company would publish data on the accuracy of its
tests. She appeared on CNBC claiming "This is what happens when you work to change things, first they
think you're crazy, then they fight you, and then all of a sudden you change the world.”
But that didn't work. Lawsuits after lawsuits drained the company's resources. In March 2018,
the SEC charged Holmes with fraud by taking more than $700 million from investors
while advertising a false product. Homles is found guilty and faces a
maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. But here investors never really criticized her? But why?
While it's easy to hate Homles for her fraud, you have to understand the culture of silicon
valley. 9 out of 10 startups fail and those who succeed become really huge.
When you get to investors with your idea, what most investors care about is if you are going
to make it to your next round of funding so that they can sell their shares to the next investors
for a higher price. And the next investors only care if you can make it to round C,
D, and so on until the company goes public and the last investor will be able to cash out.
The rest doesn't matter.
That's why a lot of startups that come up from silicon valley are usually
overpriced and keep investors' attention by overpromising and underdelivering.
Take the example of WeWork, Nikola Motors, and even Tesla. Tesla is a great company,
but if you look at it, Elon Musk has always been overpromising until he makes it.
In January 2016, he promised that in 2 years, we will have fully self-driving cars. In 2017,
he said that in 3 to 6 months, Tesla cars will be fully self-driving. But here we are in 2022,
5 years later, and we don't even know when is that going to happen. The new Roadster was first teased
in 2014. In 2017 a prototype was shown with insane claims that it could accelerate from 0 to 60
in under 1.9 seconds, with a range of 620 miles. Production should have started in 2020. But now
in 2022, Tesla postponed it to 2023 or 2024 and we have no idea when is that really coming. Tesla
SemiTrack should have been delivered by 2019, but now it's 2022, it's on hold UNTIL TESLA CAN
FIGURE OUT THE WHOLE BATTERY THING. The same story is with cyberattacks. All of these promises have
kept pushing the stock price higher and higher Instead of Tesla delivering on its promises,
Elon Musk is claiming that Tesla is a robotic company and it's going to focus on robots.
These are just a few examples. I am not trashing Elon musk or
defending Theranos. Tesla might deliver on all of its promises, maybe 5, 10, or 20 years from now.
But the strategy is simple - fake it till you make it. That's how silicon valley works.
Once you make it, everyone is going to clap and talk about what a genius are you,
but if you don't make it, or get caught in the middle before delivering on your promises,
then you are going to be seen like the villain who defrauded everyone. Whether that's right or wrong,
I will leave that for you to answer.