2023以後的世界：五個值得關注的故事（The World Ahead 2023: five stories to watch out for）

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2023: a year that many are facing with trepidation
And whilst much of the world will be tightening its belt…
…there are plenty of ways in which 2023 is set to challenge assumptions…
…from antique treasures and old-fashioned solutions, to psychedelic revelations…
…and the fate of the world’s biggest population
Here are five stories that may just transform the world ahead
In 2023 the most populous country on the planet will no longer be China...
...but India
China’s population is peaking, while India’s has continued to grow
And the UN predicts that on April 14th 2023...
...India’s population will overtake that of China’s
That is hugely significant in symbolic terms...
...but what’s more important is the composition of the Indian population...
...specifically the size of its working-age population
India has more people of working age than any other population group
When this happens, it can lead to what’s known as a demographic dividend...
...because of the opportunity it offers for economic growth...
...particularly for developing countries
Take what happened in China
The population boom under Mao...
...was followed by the introduction of the one-child policy in 1979
This created a big working-age population with fewer children to raise...
...providing the manpower for China’s extraordinary economic expansion
India’s demographic bulge started much later than China’s in the 2010s
It’s forecast to continue to around 2050...
...with the biggest growth in the next decade
The question is, will India be able to capitalise on this opportunity?
A bigger working-age population in theory should mean greater productivity...
...but in India, there are obstacles to its success
For a start, about 90% of jobs in India are informal...
...which means the vast majority of workers don’t have a regular salary
Informal-sector workers are quite productive
The problem is that these are very insecure jobs...
...and so when things like covid happen...
...suddenly many of these workers are out of work...
...so Indian government has been trying...
...to set up some national pension schemes, health-insurance benefits and so on
But social-security benefits are quite limited for many of these workers
What’s more, just 20% of women of working age are actually working
Part of the problem is that while girls are being educated to a higher level...
...it’s often not high enough to work in offices
So for these women in the middle of the education stream...
...it’s quite difficult to find work
For men of the same education...
...there are many jobs like truck drivers, mobile-phone repairers...
...postal delivery workers
A lot of these occupations are not really open to women
Part of China’s rapid economic growth...
...was due to the foreign-company factories that were set up there
The Indian government has been trying to mimic this…
…with a “Make in India” campaign to entice foreign investment
It’s had some success
In a big boost to India’s manufacturing sector...
...Apple says that it plans to make the iPhone 14 in India
But the country’s infrastructure and the state of its workforce remain a barrier
The proportion of the labour force...
...that has any formal training is extremely small, around 3%
There’s very high levels still of malnutrition, anaemia and other health issues
That means that a lot of people coming into the labour force...
...their cognitive and physical development may have been impaired
The challenge for the Indian government...
...is to create the economic environment to encourage...
...both domestic and foreign businesses to create jobs...
...so that it can reap the rewards of being the most populous country on the planet
2023 could be the year that party drugs get closer to being in your prescriptions...
...with three different psychedelic drugs...
...in phase three trials to treat mental-health conditions
MDMA could even be approved to treat post-traumatic stress disorder in America
2023 could potentially be a landmark year for us
This could be the first psychedelic-assisted therapy approved by a regulatory body
In any given year around 12m Americans suffer from PTSD...
...and for some, like veteran Jon Lubecky, it can last many years
He was a participant in a phase two trial run by MAPS PBC...
...which have been developing MDMA-assisted therapy since 2004
What are you experiencing?
It’s kind of weird…
...various periods of my life
The treatment combines three doses of MDMA, followed by psychotherapy sessions
It’s not just the MDMA, it’s not just the therapy…
…it’s the two of them working together
The results of our first pivotal phase three study...
...saw that 67% of the people in the MDMA group no longer met...
...the criteria for having PTSD
If MDMA does get approved for PTSD in 2023, it will be a gain for patients...
...who really have limited options at the moment...
...for treating this very difficult and this terrible condition
Psychedelics like MDMA can make therapy much more effective
They can dampen activity in the part of the brain that processes fear...
...and release feel-good hormones and neurotransmitters like serotonin...
...which help reduce anxiety and increase empathy...
...making it easier for a patient to reflect on a traumatic experience
Psilocybin, also known as magic mushrooms, will also be in a phase three trial...
...of a global study for treatment-resistant depression
That also has had a successful trial so far
After having this therapy, 12 weeks later, about one in five are in remission
A third drug, normally associated with nightclubs...
...is also in this critical final stage of testing
Ketamine-assisted therapy is showing promise in helping with alcohol-use disorder
In the most recent study, 86% of patients were still abstaining from alcohol...
...six months after treatment
Already offered at Awakn’s private clinics...
...ketamine could eventually be regulated for general use in Britain
We’re seeing them being hyped as cure-alls...
...for lots and lots of different mental-health conditions
And while I’m really excited about their promise...
...I do think it’s really important...
...that patients have realistic expectations about what they can achieve
But all in all, I think what we’re looking at is...
...2023 is going to be a really pivotal year for psychedelic medicines
Hello, I’m Tom Standage, editor of The World Ahead
To read about the prospects for the coming year in more detail…
…and get a headstart on more of the themes and trends to watch…
…take out a subscription to The Economist
Which includes full access to The World Ahead 2023
To get the best offer, click on the link. And now on with the film
In 2023 there’s one country which could make a global recession much worse…
…Japan
Japan is the third-largest economy, and it’s an important economy…
…because its financial sector is intertwined with the financial sector…
…of the rest of the world
Japan is the world’s biggest creditor country
It holds trillions of dollars of assets overseas, which means what happens here…
…has the potential to affect the world’s financial markets
In recent years, Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan…
…has been reassuringly predictable…
…keeping interest rates low thanks to its very low inflation
Interest rates only have to go up when inflation rises, and that just hasn’t happened
So for a long time, Japan defied any predictions that it would have to raise…
…interest rates or tighten monetary policy
To the extent of betting that it would have to do that…
…was a notorious way to lose money…
…it was a trade called the “Widowmaker”
It was always wrong
Even in the face of the pandemic and the energy crisis…
…the Bank of Japan held fast
The Bank of Japan increasingly an outlier…
…keeping its overnight interest rate at -0.1%
The dovish tone continues
Oh, boy, does it ever
That is, until now
As interest rates have risen elsewhere in the world…
…Japan has found itself exposed by the widening gap
The effect of that has been to make the Japanese currency…
…the yen, less attractive to international investors…
…because if you buy the yen and invest in the Japanese bond market…
…you’re getting a lower interest rate, lower return…
…than if you invest in the US Treasury market…
…say, where you can benefit from those higher interest rates
As a result, the yen has fallen against the dollar…
…making imports more expensive for Japan…
…which pushed up the rate of inflation
So at the end of 2022, the Bank of Japan did something unexpected
It was all to do with the interest rate…
…known as the yield, on one particular form of Japanese government debt…
…its ten-year bond
The yield on this bond is crucial in Japan…
…because it affects a lot of economic activity
Often borrowing by companies and mortgages and all kinds of contracts…
…are related to long-term interest rates
So the idea is by keeping those interest rates low…
…you stimulate spending and growth in the economy
The Japanese central bank has certainly done that…
…by capping the yield of its ten-year bonds at 0.25%
The yield of a long-term bond moves in the opposite direction to its price
So in order to keep the cap in place…
…the Bank of Japan has been buying as many bonds as necessary
But in December 2022 the Bank of Japan increased the cap to 0.5%
It might seem a relatively small move…
…but it was enough to destabilise the markets
Global markets were jolted overnight after the Bank of Japan…
…unexpectedly widened its cap on ten-year Japanese-government-bond yields
And it was also an indication that in 2023 the Bank of Japan might go even further
The question is, how much further?
It could ditch the cap completely…
…but it could also start to increase short-term interest rates too…
…as other central banks have done already
What’s happened in 2022 is that central banks around the world…
…and most importantly America’s Federal Reserve…
…have been raising interest rates
And what that’s meant is that there’s been a growing gap…
…between interest rates in Japan…
…and in the rest of the world
The Federal Reserve for example has increased interest rates…
…from 0.25% at the start of 2022 to 4.5% at the end
But if interest rates in Japan climb the same distance in 2023…
…it would be much more concerning…
…because Japan has the highest level of public debt of any rich country
While interest rates were low, high public debt was manageable…
…but if interest rates rise, investors will start to worry…
…that Japan might not be able to service its debt…
…and start to sell their bonds, causing bond yields to go up
Suddenly, it’s going to be more expensive for companies and for individuals to borrow…
…if there’s a dramatic repricing in rates that can be quite destabilising for the economy
And because Japan is so intertwined with the rest of the world…
…this destabilisation could spread to other financial markets…
…which means what the Bank of Japan chooses to do in 2023…
…could make any global recession much worse
In 2023, it’ll be back to the future for the fashion industry...
...as make-do-and-mend will be back on trend
Big clothing brands won’t just be selling new clothes...
…but, perhaps surprisingly, also encouraging more wear out of old items too
Tommy Hilfiger, Hugo Boss and LVMH, the world’s biggest luxury group...
...are all set to launch their own repair and resale services
In 2023, it will be all part of a wider push...
...towards a more eco-friendly fashion industry
Today, we are making more clothes than ever before, but we’re using them less
Pretty much the entire fashion industry operates under the same model...
...increasing throughput and number of seasons
Very, very limited clothing is actually designed to be remade...
...repaired, reused or recycled
Every second the equivalent of a rubbish truck of textiles is burnt or buried in landfill
But one way to eliminate waste and pollution is through...
...what is known as a circular economy...
...essentially keeping products in use for longer
Save Your Wardrobe is a new digital business...
...that has spotted an opportunity to do just that
It buttons up so tight that we’re going to make it a crop jacket...
...so it’s going to...just above the pockets
Growing up in Tunisia, I was really passionate about seeing...
...how local tailors were able, superfast, to create new things or repair things
And coming to Europe, I realised that...
...it was all replaced by fast behaviours of purchasing
I thought, let’s explore this opportunity
Using the app, customers can transform their worn-out wardrobes
Everything about Save Your Wardrobe started...
...because I loved seeing things remade again and again
Our recent research shows that...
...things like circular-business models like resale, rental, repair and remaking...
...have the possibility to be 23% of the global fashion industry by 2030...
...which represents a market opportunity of $700bn
But there is a risk to all this
Brands could use repair services as greenwashing without actually helping the planet
If an organisation is offering a service like repair, but to use that service...
...they’ll give you a voucher off their traditional linear sales
This is incentivising growth of their linear-business model...
...rather than actually mainstream transition to a circular economy for that business
Any claims that organisations are making should be really specific...
...and should have very clear definitions attached
On May 6th 2023, Charles III will be crowned king of the United Kingdom
While all eyes will be on him...
...some may glance at his wife, Camilla...
...and especially what she chooses to wear on her head
It’s said that he wants...
...Queen Camilla to wear the crown that his grandmother wore...
...at her coronation in 1937
At the centre of that crown sits the Koh-i-noor diamond...
...which was taken from India in 1849
It was presented to Queen Victoria but the idea that...
...this was in any real way a gift is very much in dispute
If she wears it, one expert...
...has said that for Indians this would be a massive diplomatic grenade
In 2023 the crown’s colonial past will add fuel to broader debate...
...over the repatriation of artefacts taken from other countries
The movement in favour of restitution is becoming increasingly strong
People should be allowed to see the art of their own countries, in their own countries
Glasgow Life Museums will be the first in Britain to return artefacts to India
All seven objects will be going back to New Delhi and they have a museum...
...which is devoted to the display of confiscated or returned artefacts
Our aspiration is to develop strong contemporary partnerships across the world
We don’t think that’s possible if we continue to retain objects...
...to which we don’t have legal or moral title, and so part of the process...
...is to address some of these past mistakes and to rectify them
The Indian artefacts aren’t the only items being sent home
Glasgow is also returning Benin bronzes...
...part of a wider campaign to repatriate these artefacts to what is now Nigeria
The National Commission for Museum and Monuments of Nigeria...
...are acting on behalf of the Oba of Benin
They’re trying to build a facility to house all of the returning bronzes
Thousands of bronzes were looted from Benin City...
...when British troops invaded in 1897
Enotie Ogbebor is an artist who is part of the campaign…
…to repatriate them to Nigeria
Collectively, they form the encyclopaedia of our history, of our culture
In taking them away and locking them in vaults…
…in various museums all over the world except in Africa...
…it creates a void
We can’t access as a people the truths which our ancestors have encoded
Other collections in Britain and around the world...
...have also approved returning Bronzes
But restitution remains a controversial subject
The objects may be seen as just simply works of art...
...and therefore why is there a need to return them?
But their spiritual and cultural significance is often way more important...
...and if one recognises that, then the return of the objects...
...becomes an obvious step to take
There are numerous items in museums across the world...
...that are wanted back by their country of origin
Among the most infamous are the Parthenon Marbles...
...many of which have been on display in the British Museum for two centuries
A Greek newspaper has revealed the museum has been in talks...
...about their possible return
But there are many legal barriers...
...to restitution, often making it a political decision...
...rather than one solely for the museum trustees
Which means it remains to be seen whether the Parthenon marbles...
...the Indian Koh-i-noor diamond...
...or indeed any other artefacts might make their way home
2023 is going to be a huge year for this. Expect movement on requests...
...from Egypt, from Ethiopia, from Ghana, from the Pacific Islands, from Easter Island...
...from Latin America for things to be returned. This is not going to stop here
Thank you for watching
To read more of our coverage of what might be happening in 2023…
…click the link and don’t forget to subscribe