Covid lockdowns sent stocks tumbling. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down more than 20% over

Covid鎖定使股票暴跌。科技股密集的納斯達克指數在過去一年中下跌了20%以上。

the past three months, its worst stretch since 2008.

過去三個月，這是自2008年以來最糟糕的時期。

The 20 percent fall of S&P 500 in the first 6 months of 2022 is theworst half since 1970.

2022年前6個月標普500指數下跌20%，是1970年以來最糟糕的一半。

It's led by worries about federal reserves interest rate hikes, unprecedented surging

這是由對聯邦儲備局加息的擔憂導致的，前所未有的激增

inflation, China's covid lockdown, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That's not a joke.

通貨膨脹、中國的封鎖和俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵。這不是一個玩笑。

The w orst year in half a century tells us a lot about how bad the situation is. Even

半個世紀以來最糟糕的一年告訴我們，情況有多糟糕。甚至

getting rid of the gold standard in 1971 by Nixon didn't cause such a crisis. It's not

尼克松在1971年擺脫金本位制並沒有引起這樣的危機。這並不是

just about the SP500. Look at the Nasdaq. It's having some of its worst times in decades.

只是關於SP500。看看納斯達克指數。它正在經歷幾十年來最糟糕的時期。

We have already had a wave of bankruptcies, especially in the crypto world. If this was

我們已經有了一波破產潮，特別是在加密貨幣世界。如果這是

the end, we could have said, all right, we had a bear market, and things will get better

最後，我們可以說，好吧，我們有一個低迷的市場，事情會好起來的。

soon, but the problem is that this is just the beginning.

很快，但問題是，這只是一個開始。

We have already discussed in previous videos what has caused such a bubble in the last

我們在以前的視頻中已經討論過，是什麼原因導致過去的這種保麗龍？

2 years, but what's happening now isn't just about the last 2 years. The crisis is much

2年，但現在發生的事情不僅僅是過去2年的事情。這場危機在很大程度上

deeper than that. The bubble that's now unfolding in front of us is the result of

比這更深。現在在我們面前展開的保麗龍是由以下因素造成的

the fed's action for the past decade, if not more. So it's not going to go away in just

美聯儲在過去十年中的行動，如果不是更多的話。是以，它不會在短短的時間內消失。

6 months. What we have seen in the first half of 2022 is just a taste of what's coming.

6個月。我們在2022年上半年所看到的，只是未來的一個縮影。

The fed perfectly knows that, and it is not much it can do, so it's trying to soften the

美聯儲完全知道這一點，而且它能做的也不多，所以它試圖軟化

pain. It's not going as soft as we would like, but we should get used to it because

痛苦。它不像我們希望的那樣軟化，但我們應該習慣於它，因為

it seems like everything bubble is about to burst.

似乎所有的保麗龍都要破滅了。

But the question is - what is the everything bubble? How did we end up creating such a

但問題是--什麼是一切保麗龍？我們最終是如何創造出這樣一個

massive bubble? And how bad the coming recession will be?

巨大的保麗龍？以及即將到來的經濟衰退會有多嚴重？

We will answer all of these questions and many more, but before we do that, give this

我們將回答所有這些問題以及更多的問題，但在這之前，請看這個

video a thumbs up, and let's dive in. In January 2022, as measured by the CPI-U, inflation

視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們深入瞭解一下。2022年1月，按照CPI-U衡量，通脹率為

posted its most considerable 12-month increase since February 1982. The 12-month gain was

公佈了自1982年2月以來最可觀的12個月增長。12個月的增幅是

7.5%, up from 7.0% in the period through December 2021. Price hikes for food, electricity, and

7.5%，高於到2021年12月期間的7.0%。食品、電力和其他物品的價格上漲。

shelter majorly contributed to overall inflation. That's when the fed could no longer hide that

庇護所主要促進了整體通貨膨脹。這時，美聯儲再也無法掩蓋

it was worried about inflation. No matter how many more times it hiked the rates after

它擔心的是通貨膨脹。不管它後來又提高了多少次利率，都是如此。

that, it didn't help since, in February, the rate was 7.9%, and in March, it got worse

但這並沒有什麼幫助，因為在2月份，該比率為7.9%，而在3月份，情況變得更糟。

and rose to 8.5%, in April, 9.6 percent, and finally in June 8.6 percent. If we compare

並上升到8.5%，在4月，9.6%，最後在6月8.6%。如果我們比較

that to June 2021, that's multiple times higher since inflation back then was 2.1 percent.

那到2021年6月，那是多倍的增長，因為那時的通貨膨脹率是2.1%。

So what exactly happened so suddenly that things got out of control in a glimpse of

那麼，究竟是什麼事情發生得如此突然，以至於事情在一瞥之間就失去了控制？

an eye. Well, nothing. Inflation has been around since

一隻眼睛。嗯，沒什麼。通貨膨脹自

the fed used quantitative easing to save the economy in 2008. Wait for a second; if you

美聯儲在2008年使用量化寬鬆政策來拯救經濟。等一下；如果你

look at the data, inflation has averaged around 2 percent for the past 15 years. If we are

看一下數據，在過去15年裡，通貨膨脹率平均為2%左右。如果我們是

talking about consumer prices, then yes, but if we are talking about asset prices, then

是的，但如果我們談論的是資產價格，那麼

the answer is slightly tricky. Since the world got hooked on easy monetary policy and quantitative

答案略顯棘手。自從世界迷上了寬鬆的貨幣政策和定量的

easing, it did everything possible to keep asset prices rising.

寬鬆政策，它盡一切可能保持資產價格上漲。

From January 2010 to January 2022, the sp500 grew by around 300 percent, while if we take

從2010年1月到2022年1月，sp500增長了約300%，而如果我們把

the exact period prior to that. From 1998 to 2010, it grew by just 4 percent. and that's

在這之前的確切時期。從1998年到2010年，它只增長了4%。 而這是

not like the economy grew much faster during that period. It grew by around 2 percent annually

在這一時期，經濟增長的速度並不快。它的年增長率為2%左右

as it did before, but what exactly was different this time?

和以前一樣，但這次到底有什麼不同呢？

The central banks across the globe, with the fed being at the head of them, loosed financial

以美聯儲為首的全球各中央銀行，放鬆了對金融市場的管制。

policies so much that they gave us the illusion of growth. Yes, look at the numbers. Everything

政策如此之多，以至於他們給我們帶來了增長的幻覺。是的，看看這些數字。一切

was growing really fast but did our efficiency at that rate as well? No!

增長得非常快，但我們的效率也是如此嗎？沒有!

Did we build much more factors? No!

我們是否建立了更多的因素？沒有!

Did we hire more people? No!

我們僱傭了更多的人嗎？沒有!

This is the number of dollars in circulation. Until the 1970s, the amount of currency in

這就是流通中的美元數量。直到20世紀70年代，貨幣的數量在

the economy was stable. It grew insignificantly after 1971, when the US dismantled the gold

經濟是穩定的。1971年後，它的增長不明顯，當時美國拆除了黃金

standard. It didn't right away print an enormous amount of cash and throw it into the economy.

標準。它沒有立即印製大量的現金並將其投入經濟。

However, it gradually began rising. However, in the summer of 2008, there was a spike,

然而，它逐漸開始上升。然而，在2008年夏天，出現了一個高峰。

that's when the fed threw trillions into the economy to save it, and since then, the amount

這時，美聯儲向經濟中投入了數萬億資金來拯救它，從那時起，金額

of cash in the economy skyrocketed, reaching its peak in 2020 when a global pandemic hit

經濟中的現金急劇增加，在2020年達到頂峰，當時一場全球大流行病襲來。

the world. All of that cash should have created inflation,

世界。所有這些現金都應該產生通貨膨脹。

but as we have looked at the consumer price index, inflation was relatively stable at

但正如我們所看到的消費價格指數，通貨膨脹率相對穩定在

2 percent, but asset prices have skyrocketed. And since 80 percent of the stocks are owned

2％，但資產價格已經飆升。而由於80%的股票都是屬於

by the top 12 percent of the population, only the super-rich have benefited from the fed's

由最高的12%的人口提供，只有超級富豪從聯邦調查局的工作中得到了好處。

easy monetary policy. Just take a look at interest rates. From 2009 to 2015, rates were

寬鬆的貨幣政策。看看利率就知道了。從2009年到2015年，利率是

almost 0 percent, and the fed began slowly raising them just in 2016.

幾乎是0%，而美聯儲就在2016年開始慢慢提高。

When you are given free money, it's easy to grow because you can always borrow money for

當你得到免費的錢時，你很容易成長，因為你可以隨時借錢給別人

free to show that you are doing great. The challenge is to make money without borrowing

免費，以顯示你做得很好。挑戰是在不借錢的情況下賺錢

free money. With low-interest rates, companies borrowed

免費的錢。在低利率的情況下，公司借到了

and invested wherever they could, even if these projects were unprofitable, but it wasn't

並在他們能夠做到的地方進行投資，即使這些項目無利可圖，但這並不是

a big deal since even if you don't make money, you can compensate for that by borrowing more.

這是一個大問題，因為即使你不賺錢，你也可以通過借更多錢來補償。

The situation got so absurd that the European Central Bank had a negative interest rate

情況變得如此荒謬，以至於歐洲中央銀行出現了負利率

for over 8 years. It supposes to be the other way around, you

8年多來。它應該是反過來的，你

work and create something valuable, and in return for delivering that value, you are

工作並創造有價值的東西，而作為對提供這種價值的回報，你是

financially rewarded but with negative rates, you are rewarded financially just for borrowing

經濟上的回報，但在負利率下，你只需借錢就能得到經濟上的回報。

money, so if you are not going to use that money wisely, you are not losing anything

是以，如果你不打算明智地使用這些錢，你就不會失去任何東西。

since rates are negative. Of course, that's an oversimplification because things are a

因為利率是負的。當然，這是一個過度簡化的說法，因為事情是一個

bit more complicated since negative rates at central banks don't nessasirily means negative

更加複雜，因為中央銀行的負利率並不完全意味著負利率。

rates by the time it reaches the consumers, but you get the point.

當它到達消費者手中的時候，利率會下降，但你會明白這一點。

So the growth that we had since the 2008 financial crisis was fueled by cheap money and multiple

是以，自2008年金融危機以來，我們的增長是由廉價的貨幣和多種因素推動的。

bubbles, such as the bitcoin bubble in 2017 or 2020. Low-interest rates also led to stock

保麗龍，如2017年或2020年的比特幣保麗龍。低利率也導致了股票

buybacks. When a price of a stock increases, we usually assume that it's because the company

回購。當一隻股票的價格上升時，我們通常認為這是因為該公司

is performing better. It might have built more factories, hired more people, and innovated

是表現更好。它可能建造了更多的工廠，僱用了更多的人，並進行了創新

new products, but that's usually the case. COmpanies used cheap money to buy back their

新產品，但通常是這樣的。公司用廉價的錢買回他們的

stocks which decreased their number of shares in the market and hiked the price.

導致市場上股票數量減少，價格上漲的股票。

In 2020, low rates led prices to rise as much as 25 percent. Did houses instantly become

在2020年，低利率導致房價上漲高達25%。房屋是否瞬間變得

bigger, better, or more convenient? Not all! Everything was driven by easy monetary

更大，更好，或更方便？不是所有的!一切都是由輕鬆的貨幣推動的

policy. We got so comfortable that we came to assume that investments will go up no matter

政策。我們變得如此舒適，以至於我們開始認為，無論如何，投資都會上升。

what, but how can something rise when no additional value has been added. So imagine for a moment

什麼，但當沒有增加任何額外價值時，東西怎麼可能上升。是以，請想象一下

how big is the bubble we have created? Bubbles are normal since the economy goes

我們創造的保麗龍到底有多大？保麗龍是正常的，因為經濟的發展

through cycles from expansion to contraction once it reaches its peak. The problem is that

一旦達到高峰，就會經歷從擴張到收縮的循環。問題是

economic cycles happen every 3 to 5 years, but our last expansion started around 2009

經濟週期每3到5年發生一次，但我們最後一次擴張是在2009年左右開始的。

and continued until the end of 2021. Over a decade of economic expansion was driven

並持續到2021年底。超過十年的經濟擴張是由

critically. It created such a huge bubble that we still have no clue how big it is.

關鍵是。它創造瞭如此巨大的保麗龍，我們仍然不知道它有多大。

And now it came to hunt us down by stock market collapse and high inflation. On top of that,

而現在，它通過股市崩盤和高通脹來追殺我們。在此基礎上。

the crisis we are facing now has exacerbated everything. All that the fed can do is soften

我們現在面臨的危機加劇了一切。美聯儲所能做的就是軟化

the crisis. It is difficult to say how long it will last at this point, but what's certain

的危機。目前很難說它會持續多長時間，但可以肯定的是

is that the worse is yet to come. Thanks for watching and see you in the next

是，更糟糕的事情還在後面。謝謝你的觀看，下期再見

one.

一。