- In the world of investments,

would any reputable financial advisor suggest

that you predict one scenario 10 years in the future

and then build an investment portfolio

based on that scenario?

Certainly not.

Any reasonable advisor would realize that the future

is far too uncertain to predict.

Instead, the advisor would have multiple future scenarios

in mind and continuously update them as new data emerged.

The advisor would then fluidly add and remove investments

as the future developed.

That kind of approach also makes sense

when it comes to executing strategic workforce plans.

In this video, I'll show you how to use scenario planning

to think differently about strategic workforce planning.

And I'll show you how to identify the kinds of questions

you should ask when evaluating the usefulness

of the SWP system that you have developed.

Remember, the business environment isn't static,

it's volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous.

That's why it's important continuously to look two, three,

even five years into the future to ask questions like,

"What will our organization look like

in terms of the scale of its operations?"

"What are the products or services we offer

and the markets we operate in?"

"What are the implications for talent?"

"What are the number and kinds of skills we will need?"

"What are the jobs where our talent has to be better

than competitors?"

And, "Should we make or buy that talent?"

As conditions change,

so also should your strategic workforce plans.

The objective is to ensure that your organization

is properly hedged against multiple possible

future scenarios and risks.

In terms of evaluating SWP,

both qualitative and quantitative objectives

can play useful roles.

In newly instituted SWP systems, for example,

consider asking questions such as

"Are those responsible for SWP tuned into workforce issues

and opportunities?"

"Are their priorities sound?"

"How strong are their working relationships

with line managers who supply data and use SWP results?"

"How closely do they work with these managers

on a day-to-day basis?"

"Do decision-makers, from line managers who hire employees

to top managers who develop business strategy,

actually use workforce forecasts, action plans,

and recommendations?"

In more established SWP systems,

key comparisons might include actual staffing levels

against forecast staffing requirements,

actual levels of workforce performance

against anticipated levels of performance,

action programs implemented against those that were planned.

Were there more or fewer and why?

Action program costs against budgets

and the relative return on investment or ROI

of various action programs.

Answers to these kinds of issues

provide useful feedback to decision makers

so they can improve the design and implementation

of SWP going forward.

Remember, we do not have an infinite supply of any resource,

people, capital, information or materials.

So we plan in order to reduce the uncertainty of the future.

And it's important not only that we anticipate the future,

but also that we actively try to influence it.

As management guru Peter Drucker once said,

"The best way to predict the future is to create it."

Managing talent according to plan can be difficult,

but it's a lot easier than trying to manage talent

with no plan at all.

(gentle upbeat music)