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  • So, if you've been looking to fly from America to Europe this year, you'll have noticed that there's a whole bunch of airlines that seem to suddenly be offering very cheap fares.

  • Airlines like Norse, French Bee, and Play have all been trying to capture a wave of post-pandemic revenge spending transatlantic travelers by trying to lower their ticket prices as much as possible.

  • And their tactics go far, far further than just charging for the seats and separating out added extras.

  • It's more about getting every part of your business at the lowest possible costs.

  • But major legacy airlines are competing hard on pricing, so much so that sometimes they even undercut the low-cost carriers.

  • And now with winter around the corner and demand set to fall, there's a huge question over the long-term viability of low-cost transatlantic flight.

  • So are these airlines and their airfares set to disappear as quickly as they arrived? Let's find out.

  • Okay, so first I want to know how these low-cost airlines are getting their ticket prices down.

  • And so to do that, I've come to visit Norse Atlantic.

  • The company was formed in Norway after the pandemic and has 15 of these Boeing 787 Dreamliners, 10 of which it currently operates from America to Europe.

  • Now, part of what helps Norse get its prices down is by doing something called unbundling ancillaries,

  • which in plain English is basically charging separately for everything other than the seat.

  • Flying its most basic fare, Norse will charge you to check in a bag, or to bring a carry-on, or to choose which seat you want to sit in.

  • Meals will cost extra, as will priority boarding and check-in.

  • Norse makes around $87 per passenger on ancillaries on every flight, around a fifth of all passenger revenue.

  • And has aims to become the highest ancillary revenue per passenger airline globally.

  • But any airline, including the big legacy carriers, can, and often do, unbundle their ticket prices.

  • So much so that revenue from ancillaries across the aviation industry has doubled since 2013 to total over a hundred billion dollars.

  • So to really get prices down, especially as a startup, you need to go even further.

  • And for Norse, that started with getting these aircraft for cheap.

  • It was really an asset play initially where we got the assets at historic low prices and very flexible terms.

  • That's CEO Bjorn Tore Larsen, who told me that Norse has streamlined operations in an attempt to minimize costs.

  • We fly long haul only, we fly one aircraft type, the Dreamliner, only.

  • So all our crew are trained on only one type of aircraft, we only do one type of maintenance.

  • The company also operates some of its flights from cheaper airports, like flying out of Gatwick instead of Heathrow, though they do have a slot at New York's JFK.

  • And instead of flying out of and back to a fixed hub, Norse's planes fly onward from each destination.

  • You don't have a lot of costs that is associated with a hub and spoke operation where you are into a much, much more complex operation straight away.

  • Now, all of these factors have helped Norse get pricing down and achieve profitability for the first time this year.

  • But here's the thing,

  • Norse isn't actually always that much cheaper than major legacy US carriers.

  • See, airline prices vary wildly depending on how far in advance you book, how long your stay is, and whether you plan on flying one-way or return.

  • But if you compare the prices for this flight between Norse, Delta, and United, Norse averaged around $615 and United was 660.

  • Now if you include the fact that Delta and United's price includes a carry-on bag and a meal, which would cost you upwards of $50 on Norse, then that price gap soon starts to shrink.

  • So how are these legacy carriers able to get their prices down?

  • Because of the scale and the amount of capacity they have and that brings their unit cost down.

  • That's John Grant, Chief Analyst at aviation data firm OAG.

  • If a legacy airline has got 1,500 economy seats spread across seven flights during the day then they're able to match that.

  • Another reason is that economy seats only make up a small fraction of legacy airlines cabins, the rest being far more profitable premium economy, business, and first-class seats.

  • And that kind of explains why when I search for tickets around Labor Day, Norse was more expensive than some major US rivals.

  • Sometimes our prices are going up a little bit and that is basically because the cabin is being filled.

  • So the last passenger is actually paying quite a bit more than the first passenger.

  • Now recently, demand has been so strong that there's been enough flyers for both low-cost carriers and legacy carriers to be able to profit.

  • The relative strength of the US dollar has encouraged a lot of North American visitors. And we've been blessed with just enough capacity.

  • But as the summer season draws to a close, international demand is set to drop.

  • And that's got some wondering whether these low-cost long haul carriers will be able to survive the winter.

  • Is it sustainable long term?

  • No.

  • After all, other airlines have in the past tried and failed to make low cost transatlantic flight commercially sustainable.

  • For years Norwegian Air used to operate a budget-friendly route between Europe and America.

  • But the company faced a whole bunch of headwinds, from operating Boeing planes that were grounded during the MAX crisis to trying to juggle a wide array of roots.

  • They had embarked on rapid growth. They had a short-haul network and a long-haul network. They spread themselves too thinly too quickly.

  • During the pandemic, the company filed for bankruptcy protection, restructured, reduced its fleet from 156 aircraft to 51, and crucially, discontinued long-haul operations.

  • What's not certain is how sustainable this is long term. What are your views?

  • You're absolutely right. It's yet to be proven and it has not a great history.

  • But here's the thing, many of Norse's planes are actually old Norwegian planes.

  • So is the company set to suffer the same fate?

  • I don't totally agree that we are born out of the ashes, because we are a brand new airline.

  • We have no hub and spoke operations, we don't own, you know, short-haul operations trying to put everything together.

  • It's very different.

  • You still have winter coming, and you've said yourself, you know, demand fluctuates.

  • Are you worried about some of the winter months?

  • I'm always worried, that's my job, you know, I'm born worried. And we really have to be very careful.

  • It's easy to burn a lot of money if you get things wrong.

  • So how can these low-cost carriers survive winter?

  • Well, one option is to chase the warmer weather and adjust your routes.

  • And Norse plan on doing just that.

  • Opening up winter routes to Barbados, Jamaica, and even adding a new route to Bangkok in Asia.

  • But shifting key routes when you don't have many planes can create another headache.

  • Dipping in and dipping out of markets is a relatively high-risk strategy because your brand awareness and your presence is not as large as the other carriers who are there year-round.

  • So another tactic is to try and carry more cargo, providing there's more cargo to be carried.

  • We are definitely seeing a better cargo market typically during the winter, but you don't know. So you can't take that for granted.

  • And if those fail, well, hunker down for the cold months and conduct your scheduled maintenance while your fleet is out of use.

  • Norse told me that they'd try all of these tactics, but the aviation industry can be pretty cutthroat.

  • And while low-cost carriers brace for the winter, legacy carriers will capture every advantage.

  • If the market becomes a little bit tougher those legacy carriers are not gonna say, "The market's yours."

  • They're gonna compete for every seat with you, and that's a challenge.

So, if you've been looking to fly from America to Europe this year, you'll have noticed that there's a whole bunch of airlines that seem to suddenly be offering very cheap fares.

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