Subtitles section Play video Print subtitles AMNA NAWAZ: Good evening. I'm Amna Nawaz. GEOFF BENNETT: And I'm Geoff Bennett. On the "NewsHour" tonight: On the eve of the two-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we speak to a top State Department official and a Ukrainian soldier about the state of the war. YURA, Ukrainian: We have nothing to lose, because, like, if we will lose this war, we will lose, like, everything, our freedom, our country, our lives. AMNA NAWAZ: The boyfriend of a dual Russian-American citizen speaks out after she was arrested in Russia on charges of treason. GEOFF BENNETT: And with Nikki Haley struggling to close the gap with former President Donald Trump, a look ahead to tomorrow's South Carolina Republican primary. (BREAK) AMNA NAWAZ: Welcome to the "NewsHour." The Biden administration today unveiled a new set of sanctions against Russia to punish it further for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began two years ago tomorrow. GEOFF BENNETT: The sanctions are also meant to target Russia for the death of anti-corruption activist and politician Alexei Navalny. He died in an Arctic prison one week ago from a cause still unknown. Earlier today, I spoke with U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland about the state of the war two years on. Victoria Nuland, welcome back to the "NewsHour." VICTORIA NULAND, U.S. Undersecretary of State For Political Affairs: Thank you, Geoff. Great to be with you. GEOFF BENNETT: As the world prepares to mark the second anniversary of Putin's Ukraine invasion, Ukraine's counteroffensive has stalled. Ukraine lost a brutal, monthslong battle for Avdiivka. Additional funding, as you well know, is stuck in the GOP-led House. And Russia is showing no signs of quitting. What is the outlook for Ukraine right now? VICTORIA NULAND: Well, Geoff, you are not wrong that these are tough days for Ukraine. And, as you said, they have had to come out of Avdiivka. When I was out there a couple of weeks ago, there were soldiers on the front line with only 20 bullets a day to defend themselves. And this is why the administration is pushing so hard for this additional $60 billion to support Ukraine, because the Ukrainians need it if they're going to continue to defend the line and push back the Russians. But with this money, we actually think that they can make some serious gains in 2024, particularly by enhancing some of the asymmetric techniques that they have been using. But we need to support them, just as the Europeans have just given them an additional $54 billion. GEOFF BENNETT: Well, so far, House Speaker Mike Johnson has refused to bring up a Senate-passed package, at least for a quick vote. Is there a way for the administration to get that much-needed aid to Ukraine, absent action from Congress? VICTORIA NULAND: Geoff, I would just start by reminding that this bill passed overwhelmingly in the Senate; 70 senators supported it. And they supported it because they understand that, as much as this is about Ukraine's ability to survive as a democratic state, it is also about the larger principles of a free and open international order that benefits the United States, and that, if we don't stand with Ukraine, if Putin wins here, then dictators and tyrants all over the world will take note and will get hungry with their own territorial aspirations. So we need to pass this money, and the American people broadly understand that. So we are hopeful that they will tell their members when they're home during this recess how much they support this money, and we are confident that it will pass. GEOFF BENNETT: President Biden today announced more than 500 sanctions on Russia. This is the largest tranche since the conflict started. Is this a tacit admission that the previous sanctions haven't worked, what with Russia's military industrial complex up and running and seemingly drawing on limitless supplies and support from its authoritarian allies? VICTORIA NULAND: Well, let me start with your premise, Geoff, that previous sanctions haven't worked. Russia has become a pariah state around the world, thrown out of the international banking system, and now so desperate for weapons that it has to go to countries like Iran and North Korea to get them. But those Russians are wily, and they have over the last six months found ways to evade sanctions, but we have also got smarter about how to hurt them, and that's why this package is so massive. It looks at punishing sanctions evaders. It looks at closing down further Russia's access to credit and finance. It also punishes for the death of the leading opposition figure, Navalny, at the hands of Putin and his prison guards, and it sanctions those involved in the abduction of Ukrainian children into Russia. So it is a massive package, and partly it's because we have got to staunch this evasion and because we have far more targets now, as we understand better how to staunch the Russian industrial complex. GEOFF BENNETT: Why should it, though, take an event like the death of Alexei Navalny to prompt these types of sanctions? Couldn't some of this have happened two years ago, at least to stop the flow of technology into Russia's military industrial complex that goes into building the kinds of missiles that kill Ukrainians? VICTORIA NULAND: Geoff, we did sanction technology from around the world as -- two years ago, just before and after the invasion. What has happened is that Russia has found ways to evade those sanctions, going to third markets or buying, for example, a billion washing machines, and then taking out the computer chips that we have denied them in other ways. So, this is a tightening of those sanctions as Russia adjusts, and we're confident that they're going to have a very profound impact. But the other thing that's happening, and this is quite worrying, is that Russia has been willing to intensify its economic and security relationship with China, in fact, becoming increasingly dependent on China. And that is how it is fueling its war machine. It's also been willing to put the vast majority of its own economic stimulus into the war effort, so it is starving Russia and Russians of investment in education in their own future, all in service of Putin's imperial ambitions. So, what we are having to do is adjust as well. GEOFF BENNETT: As we wrap up our conversation, you said you're confident that the aid package will ultimately pass Congress. There is this question, though, of what good would additional aid do, especially among those who view this as a war of attrition and point to the slow progress of Ukraine's counteroffensive. If the U.S. continues to provide Ukraine the same sorts of weapons, why wouldn't that lead to a further stalemate? VICTORIA NULAND: First of all, this aid is going to allow Ukraine to do four things. It's going to allow them to continue to fight. It's going to allow them to build a highly deterrent military of the future, so that they will increasingly be able to stand on their own feet in security terms. It's going to help them recover and get more of their own people home and rebuild their tax base, so that we have -- there's less economic support that they need from the rest of the world. And it's also going to help them reform and become a more European, democratic country. With this money on the battlefield, first and foremost, it will ensure Ukraine can hold the line. But, as I said, they're getting increasingly proficient at asymmetric weapons. And I expect, as I said in Kyiv a couple of weeks ago when I was there, that if we can provide this support, Putin's going to get some very nasty surprises on the battlefield in 2024, in addition to Ukraine being able to really rebuild a 21st century military. GEOFF BENNETT: Victoria Nuland is the undersecretary of state for political affairs at the U.S. State Department. Thank you for your time and for your insights this evening. VICTORIA NULAND: Thank you, Geoff. AMNA NAWAZ: In the day's other headlines: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer made a surprise visit to Ukraine to reaffirm America's support for the war effort. The trip came as a $60 billion bipartisan aid bill for Ukraine remains stalled in the House after passing in the Senate. Schumer was joined by four other Democratic senators. They met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. Embassy staff in Lviv. In the Middle East, Palestinian leaders are rejecting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed postwar plan for Gaza. Presented late yesterday, it seeks open-ended control over security and civilian affairs in the Strip. In the meantime, officials in Gaza say IDF airstrikes have killed at least 100 Palestinians since yesterday. A survivor described one horrifying overnight attack in Rafah. NOUR HAMAD, Gaza Strip Resident (through translator): We were sleeping. We woke up to the sound of the bombardment. We rushed to find the remains of people scattered in the streets, smoke and gunpowder. It was terrifying. The homes shook. We stayed at the hospital until the morning. AMNA NAWAZ: Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned the expansion of Israeli settlements within Palestinian territories. His comments marked a return to a stance the U.S. has held for decades, but had shifted under the Trump administration. ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. Secretary of State: New settlements are counterproductive to reaching an enduring peace. They're also inconsistent with international law. Our administration maintains a firm opposition to settlement expansion. And, in our judgment, this only weakens, doesn't strengthen, Israel's security. AMNA NAWAZ: Also today, the U.S. military said they destroyed several Houthi attack drones and anti-ship cruise missiles in the Red Sea and Yemen. They say they posed an imminent threat to commercial vessels and U.S. naval ships. Back in this country, Alabama Governor Kay Ivey says she will support legislation to protect in vitro fertilization treatment in the wake of her state's controversial Supreme Court ruling. Last week's decision maintained that frozen embryos could be considered children under state law. Several clinics have since paused their treatments. The state's attorney general also said he doesn't intend to prosecute IVF providers or families. A jury in New York has found that the National Rifle Association mismanaged its finances and engaged in lavish spending. It also said that the group's former leader Wayne LaPierre violated his duties and cost the NRA more than $5 million. A new report from the U.N.'s Human Rights Office is warning that sexual violence committed during the ongoing conflict in Sudan may amount to war crimes. It cites at least 118 cases of rape or other forms of sexual violence over an eight-month period. The U.N. says at least 19 of the victims were children. The turmoil began last April when clashes broke out between rival forces in Khartoum. The U.S. and South Korea staged a show of joint military strength today over the Korean Peninsula. It was an apparent response to North Korea's spate of weapons tests. Advanced F-35A fighter jets, many deployed by the U.S., maneuvered through the sky for missile interception drills. The North has launched six rounds of missile tests so far this year. In Kenya, a state funeral was held today for world marathon record holder Kelvin Kiptum. Hundreds of mourners turned out for the 24-year-old's burial near his hometown, including Kenyan President William Ruto. Kiptum died in a car crash earlier this month. He broke the world marathon record last October at the Chicago Marathon, running it in just two hours and 35 seconds. And trading was light on Wall Street today. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 62 points to close at 39131, a new record. The Nasdaq fell 45 points, and the S&P 500 added two. Still to come on the "NewsHour": a look at the dangers of parents promoting their children's content on social media; the Biden campaign works to regain the support of disillusioned Democratic voters; David Brooks and Jonathan Capehart weigh in on the week's political headlines; plus much more. GEOFF BENNETT: Ukraine finds itself in a bloody stalemate on the frozen plains of the country's east and south now two years into Russia's full-scale invasion. Russian and Ukrainian forces have taken immense losses throughout the war, and now there are calls in Kyiv for a mass mobilization. But many people are answering their own calls to protect their nation and joining up. Nick Schifrin and filmmaker Amanda Bailly in Kyiv introduce us to one of them. NICK SCHIFRIN: On the stage of war, one man plays many parts. And on the streets of Ukraine's capital, Yura is recasting himself. YURA, Ukrainian: At some point, you're accepting your fate, and you just believe, so, like, if you should live, you will live. If not, you will die. NICK SCHIFRIN: Before the full-scale invasion, the 28-year-old, who asked us to withhold his last name, was a snowboard instructor, a tour guide, an I.T. specialist, a model. But after the invasion, he swapped the suit vest for one that stops bullets. He translated for and drove a Human Rights Watch team into and through the horrors of war to document Russia's crimes. War forever transforms its victims and witnesses. YURA: When we came to Bucha, I can remember definitely the smell of rotten bodies. It was like -- like a horror movie. And I remember the screams of mothers who were recognizing their children. And it was something that you cannot forget. NICK SCHIFRIN: Nothing about this war will be forgotten. In the center of Kyiv, the carcasses of Russian armor are rusting witnesses to Ukrainian courage. YURA: All them burned down is because somebody just, like, in the distance of 100 or 200 meters had enough bravery and skill to shoot the rocket. NICK SCHIFRIN: Yura says he now needs to find his own bravery. He's tried to help the war effort in other ways. But Russia now has military momentum. And Yura says too many of his friends are fighting the war outmanned and increasingly outgunned. YURA: A lot of them are already two years in this hell. Despite the fact maybe that I don't really feeling like I'm the warrior, I need to start training and enlisting. NICK SCHIFRIN: In January, he started basic training. It was the first time he'd ever held a gun. YURA: I never expected that at some point of my life I would know how to clean a gun, how to shoot a gun. And, actually, I don't know -- now like to know this if there wouldn't be a war. But I want to protect my country. NICK SCHIFRIN: The country needs him. Ukraine's army is struggling to find new recruits. Some 15,000 have paid to leave the country illegally. New legislation would mobilize some 400,000 more men. Russia has more than that deployed inside Ukraine. YURA: From our side, like, they're the best people of our country, and from their side is criminals, is people with no future. And we are losing our best people. NICK SCHIFRIN: Sometimes, you can forget that at night in Kyiv. The city's bars are dark and filled with dark humor that, for Yura's friend, Slava, is an escape from the pain. SLAVA, Friend of Yura: That's a big chance that he's probably going to die. So, at least I hope he will give me his car or something that he have at home before he going to die. (LAUGHTER) SLAVA: Yes. But, actually, if we talk seriously, I'm just -- I'm just tired of losing my friends and family. So that's my main thought about this. I don't think that I can say anything more about this. NICK SCHIFRIN: Loss is a terror that his mother, Natalya, hopes to never know. Her husband was drafted. It's hard to bear her son's choice. NATALYA, Mother of Yura (through translator): When Yura told me he was going to, it was very hard for me to accept it, because I understand that anything could happen there. Every mother probably feels it when she sends her children. It is scary to send your husband, but there's nothing worse than to send your child. QUESTION: Are you afraid? YURA: Yes. Yes. Like, it's normal to be afraid. And I'm afraid that I could die. I could became, like, with -- like, became disabled. It's still better than be under occupation. A lot of guys younger than me, and, like, just giving me goose bumps about that I'm still living. NICK SCHIFRIN: Before he leaves this all for the front, he visits the wall of heroes and the faces of thousands of Ukrainians killed fighting Russia. YURA: Like 23 years old. Look at this. He's 20 years old, 24. We do not afraid anymore, because it's kind of, we have nothing to lose, because, like, if we will lose this war, we will lose everything, our freedom, our country, our lives. NICK SCHIFRIN: For Yura, that means there is no longer fear, only reverence for those whose sacrifice preceded his own. For the "PBS NewsHour," I'm Nick Schifrin. GEOFF BENNETT: A Russian-American dual citizen who's been living and working in Los Angeles has been detained in Russia, accused of treason and of fund-raising for Ukraine; 33-year-old Ksenia Karelina was in Russia visiting her family when she was arrested. And now her boyfriend is pleading for help. And Chris van Heerden joins us now. Thank you for being with us. And, Chris, first tell us about Ksenia. What do you want the world to know about her? CHRIS VAN HEERDEN, Boyfriend of Ksenia Karelina: That she's a normal person, that she's kind, loving, funny, loved by all her friends. Everyone who meets wants more of Ksenia. She is -- she's -- she's the light that walks into the room. Everyone wants her attention. She's happy. She has so much life in her. That's Ksenia. GEOFF BENNETT: Why did she decide to travel to Russia? And was she at all concerned that something this might happen, given Moscow's practice of detaining foreign citizens and Russian dual citizens? CHRIS VAN HEERDEN: The reason -- the reason was, she wanted to go see her family, especially the grandparents. She hasn't been home since pre-COVID. And she really -- she was -- she told me. She said: "I'm afraid I might lose my grandparents. They're very old, and I want to go see them." She was not concerned at all, not at all, not even a little bit. I was. And I made it clear to her. I said: "I don't think it's a good idea to go." But she convinced me that no. I mean, she's Russian, and there's no bombs dropping in Russia. "Like, I'm safe." And she told me that Yekaterinburg is so far in the middle of nowhere that she has nothing to worry about. And she honestly had -- she didn't look she like had fear. And -- but then again, she doesn't watch the news. I know she doesn't follow the news. So I don't think she knew what she was doing. GEOFF BENNETT: At first, as I understand it, her detention was brief. Russian authorities took her cell phone, and then they released her. And then what happened? CHRIS VAN HEERDEN: Then she went home. And she was home for three weeks. And two days before the 27th, January 27, when I really spoke to her again like every other day, I said: "What's happening? Like, you're flying in two days to come back to me?" And she said: "Oh, baby. It's all over. Like, they phoned me and said I can come and pick up my phone in an hour. I just need to go and sign some stuff." And she honestly was -- she seemed so relieved that she can finally just breathe. And that was the last I spoke to her. I haven't heard from her then. GEOFF BENNETT: She now faces up to 20 years in a Russian prison for the alleged crime of donating $50 to a charity that supports Ukraine. When you think about that potential sentence, what goes through your mind? CHRIS VAN HEERDEN: I am trying not to think about it. But knowing Ksenia, knowing how much life she has, she has -- and knowing how she lives her day-to-day, I can honestly not imagine. I cannot believe it. GEOFF BENNETT: I'm sure you have seen this video released by the FSB purportedly showing Ksenia being led blindfolded and having cuffs put on her. What do you know about her well-being right now? CHRIS VAN HEERDEN: She wrote me a letter two days ago. She wrote me a letter. I received a letter from her two days ago. She's safe. She's locked up with two women, and kind people, she says. But that's what she say about everyone. She was a little sick, apparently. And she had a bad cough, but that cough is going away. One moment, she's in good spirits and she believes she will come out and see me soon, and, one moment, she tells herself that she might be in there for life. I just know she's safe. She told me: "I'm safe." GEOFF BENNETT: Have you or her family heard anything from U.S. officials? CHRIS VAN HEERDEN: I spoke to the U.S. State Department. No one can tell me anything, because it's confidential. And they need to get letters to Ksenia to sign in order for them to speak to me. And they said they will do that. And I asked, when? And they had no answer for me. That's all -- that's all they said to me. GEOFF BENNETT: Well, Chris van Heerden, we certainly wish the best for Ksenia and for you and her family. Thank you for being with us. CHRIS VAN HEERDEN: Thank you so much. AMNA NAWAZ: A new investigation looks at the disturbing world of so-called kidfluencers and the moms who run their accounts. One in three preteens say being an influencer is a career goal, but the reality poses serious risks to underage girls. Stephanie Sy looks at those concerns. STEPHANIE SY: Instagram doesn't allow children younger than 13 to have their own accounts. So what we're seeing is parents of kidfluencers set up and manage these accounts. Posting content of girls can be lucrative. Instagram makes it possible to have paid monthly subscribers. And kids' apparel brands will pay thousands of dollars for a single post of a kid modeling, say, their dance leotards. But what might seem innocent photos to a mom may read differently to a man or a pedophile. New York Times reporter Michael Keller analyzed data from 5,000 of these mom-run accounts as part of a New York Times investigation, and joins me now. Michael, thank you for being here. I mean, the headline of your report really sums up the risk: "A Marketplace of Girl Influencers Managed by Moms and Stalked by Men." What did you find about how prolific these accounts are and why so many moms are into this? MICHAEL KELLER, The New York Times: My colleague Jennifer Valentino-DeVries and I wanted to look into this world of child influencers. And, as you said, they often are too young to have accounts of their own, and so they're run by their parents. They got into them for a variety of reasons. There was a range from dancers and gymnasts who wanted to get free or discounted leotards in exchange for photos modeling the apparel. A lot of parents said that social media was the way they could assure a good digital resume for their child's future and maybe even help pay for college or gain opportunities working with sought-after choreographers. On the more extreme end, your aspiring models, some had their own subscriptions, both on Instagram, where they would charge up to $20 a month for more photos or chat sessions with the child, or on other platforms, where the monthly cost went as high as $250. STEPHANIE SY: So your report also found that a lot of the followers of these accounts are men. Are they driving these accounts' popularity and their profits? MICHAEL KELLER: So we did an analysis looking at the follower size of these accounts and the percentage of men in that audience and did find a correlation that, as the audiences got larger, there were more men in them. Now, some parents and pretty much all the parents we spoke to said that men following them and posting inappropriately was a really big problem. Some of them said that the first thing they did when they woke up in the morning was block followers and the last thing they did before they went to bed was block followers. They often post inappropriate or even proposition the girls in the comments below the photos. They do block them, as I said, but a lot of them ran into issues where, if they blocked too many, Instagram would start limiting their ability to either follow new accounts or to block even more. One parent said: "I can't believe this. I have reached my limit for the day of blocking creepy men." STEPHANIE SY: Michael, I just want to show our viewers an example of what you're talking about. The New York Times in your investigation doesn't show the actual post, but you describe what the post showed, a 9-year-old in a golden bikini lounging on a towel. And then you show the comments section full of sexually suggestive remarks. But, Michael, it doesn't stop at the comments in every case. You describe a world in which the girls are sucked in to the sort of Internet underworld of sexual predation. MICHAEL KELLER: Right. And that was what was truly disturbing in what we found. Beyond the suggestive or predatory comments, some parents actually received threats from some of the (AUDIO GAP) online. They would reach out and accuse them of exploiting their child and threatening to contact their school or their family and friends and seemingly expose them, because it is worth noting that in -- photos of children in dance conventions are normal within that context. But within the context of the Internet, people bring to them in some cases their own skewed points of view. And so these men were trying to, seemingly with threats of blackmail, cause a lot of actual harm to the families. STEPHANIE SY: So, it occurs to me, Michael, that this is not just an investigation into risks that girls are taking online, but a story about parents who are making the decision to put their girls at potential risk of ogling, at the very least. What is the biggest takeaway for moms who are thinking of letting their daughters become influencers? MICHAEL KELLER: So, as we said, Instagram does allow parents to run these accounts for them, even when they're below 13. But what we found was that it is very hard to do so in a safe way, and that it may take hours every day of blocking creepy or possibly predatory men from interacting with the account. And the real-life threats that this could lead to, maybe -- we heard stories of strange packages showing up at people's doors, and could go from the online world into real life and affect your family, was a really strong takeaway for me. STEPHANIE SY: Michael Keller with The New York Times, thank you for joining the "NewsHour." MICHAEL KELLER: Thank you so much. AMNA NAWAZ: Tomorrow, South Carolinians head to the polls in that state's Republican primary race. South Carolina is often seen as a bellwether, with its first-in-the-South contest. And Nikki Haley has spent more money and time on the ground in her home state than former President Trump. But, as Lisa Desjardins reports, it's Mr. Trump that seems to maintain a strong hold on the electorate there. LISA DESJARDINS: On her home turf this week, former Governor Nikki Haley said she's America's last chance at normalcy... NIKKI HALEY (R), Presidential Candidate: No drama, no vendettas, just results and getting work done for the American people. LISA DESJARDINS: ... and the only candidate that can beat President Joe Biden. NIKKI HALEY: As much as we want to turn our country around, we can't do that if we don't win. And Donald Trump can't win a general election. LISA DESJARDINS: In Sumter, a Central South Carolina city known for its nearby Air Force base, Haley's words resonated with Vietnam and Gulf War veteran Fred Parent. FRED PARENT, Nikki Haley Supporter: Trump's about himself. And that's not the way a public worker should be. It should be about the whole country. And he is a worker. He works for us. LISA DESJARDINS: And with longtime Republican Tina Martinez. TINA MARTINEZ, Nikki Haley Supporter: The country is in a place where we need stability. We need a little bit of a sure thing. The American dream is kind of pretty much on life support. I didn't think I'd ever be voting for a woman for president. I want her to see that it's possible for her, especially as a minority woman as well. LISA DESJARDINS: But Haley trails Trump here by a chasm of 30 points, on average, with Trump routinely polling at 60 percent and higher. DONALD TRUMP, Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. Presidential Candidate: You're not supposed to lose your home state. It shouldn't happen anyway. And she's losing it bigly, big. I mean, really -- I said bigly. And bigly... (LAUGHTER) LISA DESJARDINS: A lot is at stake for Haley in this first-in-the-South primary. GIBBS KNOTTS, College of Charleston: One reason it's a good predictor is because of the Super Tuesday primaries that come pretty quickly afterwards. And a lot of those primaries are in the South. LISA DESJARDINS: Gibbs Knotts is a professor of political science at the College of Charleston. He says South Carolina is a bellwether, known for having voted for the party's eventual nominee nearly every time for the past 40 years. GIBBS KNOTTS: It's not necessarily that South Carolina has just gotten really lucky. We think it's actually because South Carolina is a pretty good predictor, based on the representativeness of the Republican voter here. LISA DESJARDINS: But, earlier this week, Haley said she's not quitting. NIKKI HALEY: When the country's future is on the line, you don't drop out. You keep fighting. South Carolina will vote on Saturday. But, on Sunday, I will still be running for president. LISA DESJARDINS: Still, the independent voters that pulled Haley closer to Trump, particularly in New Hampshire, are few and far between in South Carolina, with the most conservative electorate yet. Northwest, in the state's foothills, Pastor Todd Black says he doesn't tell his congregation how to vote, but they already agree on the candidate and issues. REV. TODD BLACK, Pastor, Turning Point Free Will Baptist Church: How many of you are tired of going to the grocery store spending $100 and lucky to come out with two little bags, right? MAN: Yes. WOMAN: Amen. LISA DESJARDINS: Black says he supports Trump because the former president's policies on social issues like abortion and religious freedom more closely align with his, even if Trump himself isn't perfect. REV. TODD BLACK: If he says he is a Christian, that's all I can go by. But let me say this. We're not electing a pastor. We're electing the president of the United States. And the more that they come at him with all of this stuff, when people see that, they're saying, you know what? If they're trying to take him down like this and take away his rights, then they may come after me. LISA DESJARDINS: Trump supporter Brian Winebrenner is in church leadership, and he's proud of his day job at the local BMW manufacturing plant. BRIAN WINEBRENNER, Donald Trump Supporter: We build cars for the whole world. I like the fact that we build in America. And I like his stance on, if you want to come to our country as a person, then you do it the right way. GOV. HENRY MCMASTER (R-SC): New Hampshire is for Trump. South Carolina is too. LISA DESJARDINS: And it's Trump that gained the endorsement of nearly all of the top South Carolina elected Republicans, including Governor Henry McMaster and state Senators Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott. And Knotts says Haley angered some power players in the Statehouse during her six years as South Carolina governor. GIBBS KNOTTS: She really fought against the good old boy network, and one of the things she did was made sure that people had to -- you couldn't just voice-vote on something. There had to be a record. And so she wanted to hold legislators more accountable. The downside to that, of course, is that she didn't -- she made some enemies, when you're going in and trying to change the system. LISA DESJARDINS: But shoe store owner Zoe Owen says that anti-establishment approach is what attracted her to Haley years ago. ZOE OWEN, Foot Saviv: It was just very exciting. It was a new day, because here we had a person completely from the outside, not a political class coming in. The state of South Carolina, I have so much faith in us. And we know Nikki Haley. And she is going to get rid of the extremism that's in Washington right now. She's going to make us normal again. (LAUGHTER) LISA DESJARDINS: Owen campaigned for then-state Representative Haley during her governor's race and says former President Trump's tariffs on China impacted her business directly. ZOE OWEN: It was not good for the shoe business. I question whether it was good for America. Donald Trump's a big business guy, I mean, but he -- so he doesn't have the pulse on what it really feels like, if you don't sell a shoe, you don't eat spaghetti on Monday. You eat beans on Monday. LISA DESJARDINS: Still, Trump's appeal runs strong through this state, with voters who say he's just like them. MEGAN MULLIKEN, Donald Trump Supporter: He's not somebody that can be puppeted around, which we see a lot in politics. So I want somebody to stand in my place, because we don't have a voice in Washington as much as he does. LISA DESJARDINS: The state has its first chance in generations to see a South Carolinian as a presidential nominee. But Trump hopes to make history instead by convincing voters here that he's more like them than one of their own. For the "PBS NewsHour," I'm Lisa Desjardins. AMNA NAWAZ: Next week, Michigan primary voters may send a warning signal to President Joe Biden. From the economy, to abortion rights, to the war in Gaza, the issues animating Democratic voters continue to shift in the lead-up to the 2024 election. Our White House correspondent, Laura Barron-Lopez, joins me now for the latest. So, Laura, it's fair to say President Biden has an enthusiasm gap among some in his base. Who are the voters that he's having the most trouble with right now? LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: He's having a lot of trouble with young voters and voters of color, Amna. And I spoke to Nancy Zdunkewicz, who is a Democratic pollster with Z to A Research, and she recently conducted focus groups with Latino voters, Black voters and moderate Republicans. And especially among Latino voters, she said that there was a Hispanic woman in that group who questioned the president's message on the economy specifically, that they weren't happy when they heard the president compare U.S. inflation rates to other countries' inflation rates, trying to present what they thought was too rosy of a picture in terms of U.S. economy. And, ultimately, Nancy Zdunkewicz said that what Democrats have is a messenger problem. NANCY ZDUNKEWICZ, Z to A Research: This might be a sort of reverse coattails kind of election, where we see that statewide Democrats and congressional Democrats are carrying the president across the line. I can't tell you a single state right now where I have surveyed where a statewide Democrat was not more popular and exceeding the vote share of the president. LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Zdunkewicz warned that this is a real problem for Democrats, and it's not something that they can wish away. AMNA NAWAZ: So the economy remains a challenging issue. But where is the president seeing any traction? What issues and with what voters? LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: As I mentioned, Amna, Nancy Zdunkewicz spoke to moderate Republicans as well. And so, in that focus group, they found that, when they presented the contrast between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, that a lot of those moderate Republicans started to move more towards President Biden, specifically on issues like democracy, January 6, and on abortion, that abortion, she said, is the second most important issue that they're hearing from a lot of voters across the board, not just moderate Republicans. The two fixes that Democrats could have for that, she said, is that President Biden needs to be very clear about his platform for a second term and also get more surrogates out there that could boost his message. AMNA NAWAZ: Let me ask you about this effort we're seeing under way in Michigan specifically ahead of Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary. There's a movement there to encourage people to vote uncommitted. What do we need to understand about that? LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: That uncommitted movement is being led by Democratic activists and Democratic local electeds in the state of Michigan. And it's really a last-minute movement, Amna, born out of frustration with the president's response to Gaza. I spoke with Layla Elabed, who is the sister of Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat in Michigan, the only Palestinian member of Congress. And Layla is the campaign manager for this Listen to Michigan movement. She said, Muslim and Arab voters in Michigan feel extremely let down by the president because of his response to the Israel-Gaza war and that the uncommitted movement is all about sending a message to President Biden. LAYLA ELABED, Campaign Manager, Listen to Michigan: We are solely focused on the primary in order to send that message to Joe Biden that, if he doesn't listen to his poor constituency, the 80 percent of Democrats that support a permanent cease-fire, that he's going to be in trouble come November. I don't want to be in another position where I am trying to choose between the lesser of two evils. LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Layla Elabed said that she thinks that, right now, President Biden is taking Muslim and Arab voters, who were key in his win in 2020, for granted. And that same frustration about the president's response to Israel-Gaza, Amna, is something that is a big problem for him also with young voters. AMNA NAWAZ: So, when it comes to those young voters, other key members of that coalition that got him to the White House, how is President Biden addressing some of that dissatisfaction? LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Right now, President Biden's campaign's theory of the case is that the more that they contrast him against former President Donald Trump on policy across the board, that they think that voters will start to come home, that that will keep -- all those elements of his coalition will ultimately vote for him, that some of them just aren't paying attention yet. One key example of that was just this week, Amna, when the president announced that he would forgive $1.2 billion in student loan debt for more than 150,000 borrowers. And when he was announcing that, he said that he had to go this route, which was a more piecemeal route that he wanted, than he wanted to initially, because of the fact that when he was trying to forgive student loan debt for tens of millions of borrowers, that Republicans ended up fighting that and that the Supreme Court, which has a conservative majority, blocked it. And so he's really trying to strike that contrast on student loan debt, on abortion, on a variety of other issues with Republicans writ large. AMNA NAWAZ: Laura Barron-Lopez with the latest on President Biden's reelection campaign. Laura, thank you. LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Thank you. AMNA NAWAZ: As Ukraine marks two years of war with Russia, Americans' support for aid in the country -- to the country, rather, is wavering along partisan battle lines. On that and the other political story shaping the week, we turn now to the analysis of Brooks and Capehart. That is New York Times columnist David Brooks, and Jonathan Capehart, associate editor for The Washington Post. Great to see you both. JONATHAN CAPEHART: Hey, Amna. DAVID BROOKS: Good to see you. AMNA NAWAZ: Let's start with Ukraine. Russia's war, David, as you know, now moving into its third year there. Russia's clearly gaining momentum on the battlefield. Lawmakers here in the U.S. are unable to move through aid. Mr. Trump is now telling Republicans not to back that aid. If the Ukraine war was supposed to be this test, right, of Western democracies coming together, showing their strength against a rising autocracy, are we failing that test? DAVID BROOKS: Well, we're on the verge of it. If you had told me two years ago that Europe would be united and strong and in support, even though they were so dependent on Russian energy, and that we'd be the faltering ones, and that the faltering ones within our country were Republicans, wouldn't have believed you. AMNA NAWAZ: Didn't see that coming. DAVID BROOKS: It seemed like it was universally accepted that defending Ukraine was in our national interest. Even today, 74 percent of Americans think defending Ukraine is in our national interest. And yet the president, or the ex-president, said no, and the speaker apparently follows him. And, to be fair, in retrospect, we should have been clearer that the Russian strategy in war is to go on forever and ever, and they're willing to sacrifice casualties that would destroy most other nations. They did it in the Napoleonic Wars. They did it in World War II. They're doing it in Ukraine. And we should have been clearer that time wasn't on our side. And the Biden administration was undoubtedly too slow to get the weapons systems. They gave them enough not to lose, but not enough to win. But it's a small, rump isolationist majority, the J.D. Vances of the world, that threaten to really send the world into turmoil. And they say, oh, no, we need to focus on China and Asia. Well, talk to the Chinese. Talk to the Taiwanese. What are they worried about? They're worried about Ukraine losing. And so this is the doorstep to chaos, and a large part of the Republican Party doesn't care. AMNA NAWAZ: Jonathan, to David's point there, House Speaker Johnson is listening to former President Trump here, right? But he's also -- he's facing a looming government shutdown. He's trying to oversee one of the smallest House majorities in congressional history. Is Ukraine a top of his priority list right now? JONATHAN CAPEHART: No, top of his priority list, Speaker Johnson's priority list, is remaining speaker. We are right back where we were with Speaker McCarthy. Only, the difference between Speaker McCarthy and Speaker Johnson is, and I can't believe I'm saying this, Speaker McCarthy knew what he was doing. He could actually -- he could govern, haphazardly and haltingly, but he could govern. He kept the government from shutting down. AMNA NAWAZ: Yes. JONATHAN CAPEHART: Speaker Johnson has Ukraine aid, which is vital to -- as David was talking about, vital to the national interest. He's got to get through two funding deadlines, March 1 and March 8. There's an immigration bill that he says -- his own that he wants to get through, after rejecting the hard-fought bipartisan Senate immigration bill. This is a person who is woefully unprepared and inadequate for the task that faces him. And when it comes to this -- this battle between democracy and autocracy, where it is vital that Ukraine win, if they do not win, we will be able to look back and point the finger right at Speaker Johnson, because it's Speaker Johnson who is the one who's getting in the way of something happening on multiple fronts. AMNA NAWAZ: You agree with that, David? DAVID BROOKS: Yes, I'm a little hopeful that something will get passed. There are a bunch of different ways you can do it. They're thinking of breaking all the different aid pieces apart. There's this thing called the discharge position, where, if you get a majority of House members signing this petition, you can get a vote on something. AMNA NAWAZ: You still need a number of Republicans to get that discharge petition. DAVID BROOKS: You need a number of Republicans. But if it's saving democracy, I think there'd be a number. You don't have to get a lot of Republicans. You just got to get a few, and then you can evade the speaker and get a vote. And if it got a vote, it would pass, for sure. AMNA NAWAZ: Hope springs eternal. I will take that. I do want to ask about the other issue raised on immigration in particular, and as it relates to President Biden and his reelection campaign. We heard Laura Barron-Lopez's reporting there on some weakening among the Biden coalition and core groups there. And we know, David, that President Biden is now weighing some very harsh immigration tactics through executive action at the U.S. Southern border, reminiscent really of some Trump era policies. So does it make it harder for the president, as a candidate, to draw a bright line between himself and his likely general election opponent, former President Trump, when he's coming out with some of the same policies? DAVID BROOKS: Yes, on this issue, Joe Biden does not want to draw a bright line. The country is with Donald Trump. If you ask who do you approve on different issues, on general competency, Trump is up by like 12 points. On who can handle the economy better, Trump is up by 25. On immigration, he's up by 39 points. And so this is an issue where you want to fudge that line. And just on the merits, I'm as pro-immigration as I think it's possible to be, but our asylum system is meant for people seeking asylum, escaping repression. And a lot of the people coming across the border are coming across the border for a lot of the reasons. My ancestors came across. They wanted economic opportunity. But that's not asylum. And so the system is somewhat broken down, and Biden is right to do something. And, politically, I do think his survival depends on it. AMNA NAWAZ: Do these kinds of moves, Jonathan, further alienate members of that Biden coalition that helped get him to the White House in the first place? JONATHAN CAPEHART: Well, I mean, that sort of answers the question. Yes, it does further alienate. But, I mean, I have to agree with David on this, that immigration is an issue that the president has to fudge this line. But what I also think he has going for him is, he gets to say, the Republicans made me do this. There was a bipartisan Senate immigration bill that never got a vote. I was in on the negotiations. They never gave us a vote. And so we have to do something. And the election of Tom Suozzi in -- on Long Island, gosh, was that a week-and-a-half ago now, almost two weeks ago, was a signal of how salient the immigration issue is. AMNA NAWAZ: Meanwhile, David, here is what Mr. Biden could be up against. From the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, as it's known, there was a moment when a far right conservative commentator, a man named Jack Posobiec, took to the stage. He was holding up a cross, and he said this: JACK POSOBIEC, Conservative Activist: Welcome to the end of democracy. (LAUGHTER) JACK POSOBIEC: We're here to overthrow it completely. We didn't get all the way there on January 6, but we will endeavor to get rid of it and replace it with this right here. AMNA NAWAZ: He's holding up a cross there as he says "Replace it with this." This was met with cheers from the crowd there. But, David, how do you look at that? Was that meant to be a joke? DAVID BROOKS: Yes, it's meant to be -- I mean, there's a game right-wing commentators of that sort play. They get -- they say something that offends the left, and then they could say, oh, the left hates me. And then they get popular in their own crowd, and so it's a form of performance art to shock the bourgeoisie. And I take it with utmost cynicism, that they are just trying to get attention, and this kind of humor is, shock the left. And then I have owned the libs. So I think it's like, crass, stupid. Do I think it represents the thousands of Trump voters I have interviewed? No, none of them would talk like that. They're all serious people who have serious views that I happen to disagree with, but they're not like that kind of guy at CPAC. AMNA NAWAZ: Jonathan, what do you make of that? JONATHAN CAPEHART: This is one lib who's shocked. And I don't think that those types of things are funny. And I don't think they're funny in the context of what we're living through right now, Alabama Supreme Court and what it did on IVF, Supreme Court overturning Dobbs, a House speaker who's enthralled to a former president who is preventing him from doing anything that would help move the country forward on a whole host of issues. And I have been around Washington long enough to remember that that is the same crowd that was railing against, oh, my God, Sharia law is coming to the United States. You know, it's a religious theocracy taking over the American government. But it's OK if it's Christian nationalism. Or let's just be more blunt about it, white Christian nationalism. I take what they say there at CPAC, even though it is sort of a Looney Tunes cafe, but I take them seriously, because their guy is the front-runner for the Republican nomination for president and has a 50/50 chance of being the president. So that joke can become reality. AMNA NAWAZ: So let's take a quick look at the context in which this is unfolding. Here's a look at the delegate count right now for former President Trump and the lone challenger to him for the Republican presidential nomination. That is Ambassador Nikki Haley. We see there Mr. Trump has 63 delegates to Nikki Haley's 17. They need 1,215. One of them needs 1,215 to clinch the nomination. David, the South Carolina primary is tomorrow. What are you watching for? What do you believe will happen? DAVID BROOKS: Yes, I will be curious to see if Haley can climb up to the 40s. I think her campaign has said that 42 constitutes success for them. And that would be a nice lift. It would make her feel good. And she can go on to Super Tuesday and then get crushed and then drop out of the race. But either way, we know how the story ends. It ends with her dropping out of the race. AMNA NAWAZ: Jonathan, how are you looking at this? JONATHAN CAPEHART: Look, I go back to the great James Pindell, who said they don't get out because they lose. They get out because they're broke. She's got the money. She will lose South Carolina. She will go to Super Tuesday. She will -- as David says, she will get crushed there. But I do think, in the grand scheme of things, she is doing a service to the party and to the country by finally speaking truth about Donald Trump and what he means for the Republican Party, but also what he means for the country and for democracy writ large. AMNA NAWAZ: Jonathan Capehart, David Brooks, always great to see you both. Thank you so much. JONATHAN CAPEHART: Thanks, Amna. DAVID BROOKS: Thank you. GEOFF BENNETT: And, as always, there's more online, including a look at the last two years of the Ukraine war and its wider repercussions on politics, global security and stability in the region. That's on our new half-hour show, "PBS News Weekly." That's now on our YouTube channel. And be sure to tune in to "Washington Week With The Atlantic" tonight on PBS. Moderator Jeffrey Goldberg and his panel will discuss the war in Ukraine entering a third year, as critical U.S. aid is stalled in Congress. AMNA NAWAZ: And tune in tomorrow to "PBS News Weekend." Republican primary voters head to the polls in South Carolina as Donald Trump continues to carve a path to the nomination. And that is the "NewsHour" for tonight. I'm Amna Nawaz. GEOFF BENNETT: And I'm Geoff Bennett. Have a good evening and a great weekend.
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