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Etsy, the global e-commerce platform known for unique and
handmade goods, reported its highest ever annual revenue of
$2.7 billion in 2023.
But that's not the full picture.
Its gross merchandise sales, or the total value of goods
sold on Etsy, declined in the same period, falling flat for
the second year in a row.
It stocks its more than 70% lower than its 2021 high, and
first quarter 2024 earnings results didn't look much
better.
Etsy's consolidated results, while within our guidance
range, were not where we wanted them to be.
After the big increase in both buyers and spending per buyer
during Covid, it looks like they've hit a wall and you
basically have a company that has not grown in two years.
Some longtime sellers are partly blaming CEO Josh
Silverman, saying his focus on profits has pushed the
company away from its vision, allowing counterfeits and mass
produced items to thrive, demoralizing artists and
buyers.
Competing with people who are generating art via artificial
intelligence. Now I can't compete.
It's just junk. A lot of it.
You're just going to be a slightly more expensive
Amazon. That seems like a terrible business plan.
With discretionary spending down a first quarter 2024 miss
in both merchandise sales and profits, and an acknowledgment
of poor execution by its CEO, Etsy's future is uncertain.
It's a public company.
Its job is to return value to shareholders.
At the end of the day, they need to be able to sell things
that people want.
When Etsy first came on the market in 2005, it was a
revolutionary idea.
People who loved arts and crafts finally had a place to
buy those things all the time and get connected with sellers
and artisans and artists who maybe they would have never
encountered before.
Etsy's founder and then CEO, Rob Kalin built the platform
to empower artisans.
His vision was that Etsy could influence society in a
way that people would think more consciously about the
products they chose.
How do you get from just doing it as more of a hobby, to
organizing this to the point where you can actually make a
living?
The virtual storefront also enabled a new kind of
revolution.
These small businesses, these local artists, suddenly had
the ability to connect with buyers all over the world.
And this was huge.
I mean, it was an opportunity for them to grow their brand,
grow their sales.
Nicole Aline Legault and Chiarra Lohr are just two of
the many artists who joined Etsy to sell more of their
work. Legault has been there since 2009.
Everyone that I knew was opening up a little shop
because it was one of the only places that was offering
this platform and template.
It was very about the sellers.
They were really driving the traffic and making the site
what it was and creating a community.
Transaction fees were initially low.
Etsy received B Corporation status in 2012, and was one of
the first companies with that certification to complete an
IPO, which it did in 2015.
At the time, it was valued at $1.8 billion, but the cracks
in Etsy's foundation were already forming.
Kalin stepped down as CEO in 2011 for a second time.
As competition was stiffening, the next CEO made
a big change in 2013, allowing artists to use
outside manufacturers to produce their designs.
The term handmade was getting looser.
And in this new public arena, the company was beholden to
financially focused shareholders with a laser
focus on growth.
Etsy's stock lost more than 70% of its value its first
full year as a public company.
From the beginning, Etsy wasn't profitable.
You know, when it went public, it was deeply in the
red. This wasn't uncommon for e-commerce companies.
It's still not necessarily uncommon for disruptive new
startups and things like that. But over time, you
needed to kind of change that.
Vendors, too, were unhappy for different reasons.
There's been a massive culture clash at Etsy.
It's something that really started after the company went
public. It's happening internally with employees who
had been there since the beginning, had kind of seen
this company as, you know, different.
Yet another CEO was appointed in 2017.
Josh Silverman made both short and long term changes,
laying off 22% of Etsy's workforce that year and later
pushing through transaction fee hikes and shipping fees.
He also introduced a new tier -based subscription model for
sellers to jumpstart their growth--at a cost.
It's ultimately like maybe too focused on keeping the sellers
happy and wasn't doing enough to kind of drive buyer
satisfaction. So that's what Josh tended to focus on, you
know, kind of maybe more balancing both sides of a
marketplace, which is key.
By 2018, things were picking up, sales were growing, and
the stock was at its highest.
The turnaround was attributed to Silverman's leadership.
And then the pandemic.
For the month of April, Etsy sold $133 million worth of
face masks. That's 12 million face masks.
The pandemic was a boon for Etsy.
The number of active buyers increased by about 77%.
Gross merchandise sales grew by more than 100% year over
year in 2020, and more than 30% in 2021.
Etsy stock price reached its all-time high that same year.
It also started charging some of its sellers for
advertising, bringing in additional streams of revenue.
Pandemic related success is just that it's a fluke.
It's a flash in the pan.
So far missed earnings in 2023 and the first quarter of 2024
are leaving investors with little doubt that the pandemic
may have been just that a fluke.
In December 2023, the company laid off 11% of its staff.
But as Etsy focuses on a comeback, it's also angering
some of its biggest stakeholders its sellers.
Etsy has been changing how buyers interact with the
platform to prioritize buyers buying more, faster and
staying on Etsy, not prioritizing buyers having a
good experience from individual sellers.
Chiarra Lohr leads the Indie Sellers Guild, a labor
advocacy group for Etsy sellers formed after a week
-long strike against the platform. Creators were
frustrated by yet another transaction fee increase and a
controversial star seller program that prioritized
sellers who meet requirements like fast shipping, high
ratings and quick response times.
And everything seems very corporatized.
It's almost as though you're penalized for not using Etsy
the way they're trying to make you use it.
Don't shut down my shop without letting me talk to a
person. Don't issue a refund to a buyer without getting
proof that it was damaged.
It's not drop your fees by half.
It's not get rid of offsite ads.
It's let me opt out if it doesn't work for me.
Kind of all those things accumulating to where they
find themselves heaping less and less of the money from
when they have a sale, but having to do more and more
work, not even in their craft of the thing that they make,
but just to make their Etsy shop work for them.
The company has said it had to make some tough changes to
compete with giants like Amazon, which spends more on
marketing and has more repeat buyers.
Its deteriorating reputation is another issue the company
is fighting. Sellers have blamed the 2013 rule change,
allowing creators to outsource their production for
what they call the "junk-ification" of Etsy.
This isn't a new problem, but one that some say has gotten
worse as the number of sellers grows.
I want to show you the the sadness on Etsy and what it's
become.
Legault went viral for her TikTok, exposing many of the
top Etsy shops as dropshippers or sellers who
make the designs but outsource the labor to another
company. Some designs are made with AI generated images.
Dropshippers are able to mass produce items like T-shirts,
stickers and stationery.
Others just sell supplies like beads.
In a comment to CNBC, Etsy said that it recognizes its
current definition of handmade, includes a broad
spectrum of items, and will clarify its policies to be
more transparent about what belongs on Etsy in the coming
months.
There are some like old school people in there, very few.
But, um, every click I was like, what is it?
Cups again, cups and then another.
I click again, it's cups again.
And I'm just like, how is this possible?
I get that it's business, but it's so not how I want to do
business.
Though this comes at odds with the company's mission, it is
not necessarily bad for its finances.
If people are buying it, then there's not a lot of incentive
for management to change that because it's working,
apparently. But of course, you are going to risk
alienating the people who started with the platform.
I think we do pay attention when sellers object to some of
the policy or pricing changes, but I don't think
it's had any impact on their business.
Etsy said it removed 115% more listings for violating company
policy in the first quarter of 2024, than the year prior.
We've always taken down items for not complying with not
handmade. That's always been a focus, but we've been
getting better technology and investing a lot in that.
As Etsy tries to compete with e-commerce giants like eBay or
Amazon. The path for being both successful and loyal to
its core principles is unclear.
Can you be Etsy while also having the pressures of a
public company? Should it have gone public?
I mean, it depends on who you ask.
Etsy CEO says the company is still trying to engage and
retain current buyers, half of whom only shop on Etsy once
per year. The 7 million artists are what the company
was founded on, and without them, Etsy is perhaps no
longer Etsy or offers what buyers are looking for
anymore.
Many sellers feel trapped.
They're not really making enough profit margin on Etsy
anymore. But because Etsy is still there, it's very hard
for alternatives to grow, right?
So they've kind of really taken over this space and then
shifted and are now like still sitting in that space.
In February 2024.
Activist investor Elliott Management built a 13% stake
in the company, the largest of any investor, earning it a
board seat. Stock shot up more than 10% on the news.
We haven't really seen a ton yet as far as what the impact
will be from that.
But generally, public market investors generally do applaud
activists being involved because it perhaps is an
outside opinion kind of coming into a room.
I actually think the most likely case is Etsy will find
a way to use that AI to help their sellers, and then
perhaps it'll be a way to kind of build up trust, which
is like, let us set the price.
I think what also they're missing is that we are not
into having these third parties.
Like, I want to work directly with my printer, I want to
work with other artists, I want to collaborate.
I want to do these things in in the way that makes me feel
human.
Ultimately, some major changes could shake up the company if
it can't boost profits or innovate fast enough.
In February 2024, it introduced a one-time seller
fee of $15 for new shops, which it said helped boost
revenue in its Q1 results.
If ultimately, you know, the the outlook for the company is
five 6%, 7% revenue growth and not 13% revenue growth,
they probably would restructure their expenses.
Could they shrink the size of the organization, have more
layoffs, increase the margin?
I mean, generally scaled marketplaces can operate at
margins higher than Etsy is operating at today.