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  • Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch have been a huge winner this year, more than doubling.

  • The chart is amazing, up more than 20%.

  • Abercrombie may end up just being the standout of all the retailers.

  • Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch are up more than 500% over the last year, even beating out tech stars like Nvidia and Meta.

  • The company's annual sales have grown by nearly 30% since 2017, and it's posting its highest profits in more than a decade.

  • When the U.S. apparel market shrunk by 4%, Abercrombie & Fitch managed to grow annual sales by 16% in 2023.

  • And the run isn't slowing down anytime soon.

  • On May 29, 2024, the company posted its highest first quarter ever.

  • Shares popped 24% at closing.

  • But just a few years ago, the situation was very different.

  • Just a declining story.

  • We had about $4.5 billion in revenues.

  • Back there, we're looking at about three and a half here.

  • Abercrombie was deemed America's most hated retailer, ready to be sold off.

  • So how did Abercrombie pull off one of the biggest comebacks in retail?

  • And the question is, can they keep it up?

  • In the late 90s and into the 2000s, Abercrombie & Fitch was the hottest teen retailer on the planet.

  • Teens were obsessed with its graphic tees, short skirts, and branded hoodies.

  • And former CEO Mike Jeffries used sex appeal to win them over.

  • I hope Abercrombie feels very sexy for a 20-year-old.

  • For a while, it worked.

  • I think the magazine, it's individuality, diversity, that type of thing.

  • Until it didn't.

  • This used to be the hottest teen brand in the world.

  • Yet under Jeffries' recent leadership, Abercrombie & Fitch has become practically irrelevant.

  • It might sound a little simple, but great retailing all starts with great product.

  • And CEO Fran Horowitz knew that when she stepped in in 2017.

  • They took a look at what people were wearing and they took a look at what they had in their store.

  • And it was very, very narrow and very limited in terms of merchandise selection for what today's customer wants.

  • Horowitz is what the retail industry refers to as a merchant.

  • Before she took the helm of Abercrombie, she spent her career in merchandising.

  • Her job was to know what customers wanted and how to sell it to them.

  • You can be great with finances, but you have to understand merchandising.

  • You have to understand assortment planning, assortment mix.

  • You have to understand our supply chain and how it works.

  • But if you don't understand the psychology of a customer, good luck to you.

  • Abercrombie started conducting exhaustive market research so it could figure out who its new customer was and what that shopper wanted.

  • Getting close to that customer, understanding what they're looking for is the win.

  • When you put out there a great product, fashion and an equation that they're excited about, they're willing to spend.

  • Within a couple of years, the assortment was completely changed.

  • Heavily branded t-shirts and jeans were swapped for a range of sophisticated essentials.

  • It's now a brand that's focused on millennials, and obviously they stretch across quite a large age range.

  • And what those customers wanted was something that's fashionable, but also comfortable to wear.

  • Something that's not too stylish, not too over-logoed, but that actually still has nice embellishments and twists, and they feel good in wearing those products.

  • It also broadened its assortment.

  • Abercrombie started offering an athletic apparel line in more categories like dresses and matching sets.

  • It also focused its Hollister brand.

  • Part of the reason why Abercrombie's comeback has been so remarkable is because they did it at a time when consumers were cutting back on things like new clothes.

  • Take fellow apparel retailer Gap, which lost market share last year.

  • Why?

  • Executives blamed it on so-called product acceptance challenges, which is a nice way of saying that Gap made clothes that people just didn't want to buy.

  • A growing backlash this morning against the retailer Abercrombie and Fitch.

  • The popper-style chain accused of discriminating against overweight customers making clothes only to the thin.

  • And the CEO says it's all by design.

  • Under Abercrombie's former CEO, Mike Jeffries, the company only marketed to a certain type of person.

  • Super skinny, blonde, young, preppy, beautiful.

  • The brand became at one point extremely toxic.

  • In 2006, Jeffries told Salon Magazine that Abercrombie was only for good-looking, cool kids.

  • He said part of the business model was based on excluding others that didn't fit in with the brand's image.

  • The comments resurfaced in 2013, causing a major fiasco for the brand.

  • It was seen as being very exclusionary at a time when the whole market was moving to a more inclusive model.

  • It's great to target a specific narrow audience, but if you're going to do it at the expense of earning revenue and profits, well, what you're doing is you're destroying your own brand.

  • Slowly, Abercrombie changed.

  • In 2021, the company started offering a curve-love fit in a range of extended sizes.

  • It was also an early adopter of TikTok, working with an army of influencers to help its free brand go viral.

  • I wanted to try their curve-love jeans.

  • Has made some decent strides in becoming a more equitable brand.

  • I'm just an average chick who loves and appreciates the new Abercrombie clothing.

  • The affiliates and the influencers are a very big part of our business.

  • That user-generated content that they create is something that really resonates with our consumer.

  • People count on and believe their friends and their peers more than they believe what a company is telling you.

  • And we've learned that through the ages.

  • So that's a very important part of what we do.

  • We have a creator suite where many people advocate on behalf of our brand.

  • Some of it's done organically.

  • Some of it is done through partnerships.

  • There's lots of different ways to approach it.

  • Kristen Dolan has spent nearly 15 years in the advertising industry, most recently in influencer marketing, helping big brands like McDonald's, Hilton, and Free People reach a wider audience.

  • She says that authentic marketing, not just splashy billboards and magazine spreads, was critical to communicating Abercrombie's rebrand.

  • Nine out of ten consumers trust influencers over brands.

  • And influencer ads deliver 44% higher attention metrics and six times higher return on ad spend on average compared to social benchmarks.

  • People want to see themselves represented in content full stop.

  • And when people feel represented in content and messaging, that leads to better business outcomes.

  • With the right product and marketing in place, the back end got a fix too.

  • She closed stores that were unprofitable.

  • She got out of many of the international markets.

  • She took a look at headcount.

  • She took a look at how inventory was being ordered and sourced.

  • Like other retailers that were big in the 1990s and 2000s, Abercrombie had hundreds of stores and malls across the country.

  • Many of those shopping centers have shut down or are dying.

  • Since 2010, Abercrombie has closed more than 700 locations.

  • They're opening stores again of a smaller square footage with a different look and feel than it had in the past.

  • The newer stores are light. They're bright.

  • There's a lot of natural wood fixturing.

  • Everything is laid out very cleanly and clearly.

  • And they're actually very engaging places to shop.

  • The company now has about 760 stores worldwide with 60 new store openings planned this year along with 65 remodels.

  • While Abercrombie's store footprint is down by about 10% compared to 2019, productivity per square foot is up by 18%.

  • Abercrombie also revamped its supply chain and stopped relying on promotions to drive sales.

  • It's now seeing its highest profits in more than a decade and beating rivals like Urban Outfitters, Gap, and American Eagle.

  • Abercrombie has come a long way from where it was.

  • But will it continue to be a winner?

  • 2024 could be a slower year for the company.

  • It was a big winner of the quiet luxury trend in 2023, but now maximalist styles are back in.

  • On top of that, analysts say there's still more work to do on its Hollister brand, which is about half of overall sales.

  • Despite all of the success, the company still hasn't topped the all-time highs it saw in its heyday.

  • Still behind in profits and sales and just isn't as large as it once was.

  • We've been talking about our global opportunity.

  • Since June of 2022, we did our last investor day, how we really see that as a big opportunity for us.

  • So we've got localized teams really building a lot of talent into both London and into Shanghai.

  • They're localizing the assortments.

  • They're working on appropriate promotions for their calendars.

  • So we're excited about the progress that we're seeing.

  • They're very conscious about where they're going to get future growth from.

  • And that gives me a lot of confidence in the business and the brand going forwards.

  • So I think we're still going to see Abercrombie & Fitch be one of the winners, one of the leaders in the market,

  • even if their growth rates come down off these great highs that they've delivered across 2023.

  • Analysts remain bullish.

  • Among the major investment banks and research firms, none have a sell rating on the stock.

  • I'm looking for sales growth to be in the mid-single-digit range.

  • And I'm looking for earnings growth, even this year, to be a double-digit earnings growth rate.

  • Abercrombie & Fitch has built up, I think, a very defensible proposition.

  • And to maintain it, all they have to do is keep adding the requisite value and being meaningful to their customers.

  • And people are willing to spend those dollars.

  • And that's really what good fashion is all about.

Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch have been a huge winner this year, more than doubling.

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