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Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch have been a huge winner this year, more than doubling.
今年,Abercrombie & Fitch 的股票大獲全勝,漲幅超過一倍。
The chart is amazing, up more than 20%.
圖表令人驚歎,漲幅超過 20%。
Abercrombie may end up just being the standout of all the retailers.
Abercrombie 最終可能會成為所有零售商中的佼佼者。
Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch are up more than 500% over the last year, even beating out tech stars like Nvidia and Meta.
去年,Abercrombie & Fitch 的股價上漲了 500% 以上,甚至超過了 Nvidia 和 Meta 等科技巨頭。
The company's annual sales have grown by nearly 30% since 2017, and it's posting its highest profits in more than a decade.
自 2017 年以來,該公司的年銷售額增長了近 30%,利潤也創下了十多年來的最高紀錄。
When the U.S. apparel market shrunk by 4%, Abercrombie & Fitch managed to grow annual sales by 16% in 2023.
2023 年,當美國服裝市場萎縮 4% 時,Abercrombie & Fitch 的年銷售額卻增長了 16%。
And the run isn't slowing down anytime soon.
而且這種增長勢頭不會很快減弱。
On May 29, 2024, the company posted its highest first quarter ever.
2024 年 5 月 29 日,公司公佈了有史以來最高的第一季度業績。
Shares popped 24% at closing.
收盤時股價大漲 24%。
But just a few years ago, the situation was very different.
但就在幾年前,情況卻截然不同。
Just a declining story.
只是一個沒落的故事。
We had about $4.5 billion in revenues.
我們的收入約為 45 億美元。
Back there, we're looking at about three and a half here.
在後面,我們看到的是三個半。
Abercrombie was deemed America's most hated retailer, ready to be sold off.
Abercrombie 被認為是美國最令人憎恨的零售商,隨時可能被出售。
So how did Abercrombie pull off one of the biggest comebacks in retail?
那麼,Abercrombie 是如何實現零售業最大反彈之一的呢?
And the question is, can they keep it up?
問題是,他們能保持下去嗎?
In the late 90s and into the 2000s, Abercrombie & Fitch was the hottest teen retailer on the planet.
1990 年代末到 2000 年代,Abercrombie & Fitch 是全球最炙手可熱的青少年零售商。
Teens were obsessed with its graphic tees, short skirts, and branded hoodies.
青少年對其圖案 T 恤、短裙和品牌連帽衫情有獨鍾。
And former CEO Mike Jeffries used sex appeal to win them over.
前 CEO 麥克·傑佛瑞斯用性感征服了他們。
I hope Abercrombie feels very sexy for a 20-year-old.
我希望 Abercrombie 能為一個 20 歲的年輕人感到性感。
For a while, it worked.
有一段時間,它還挺管用。
I think the magazine, it's individuality, diversity, that type of thing.
我認為雜誌是個性、多樣性之類的東西。
Until it didn't.
直到不再是。
This used to be the hottest teen brand in the world.
這曾經是世界上最熱門的青少年品牌。
Yet under Jeffries' recent leadership, Abercrombie & Fitch has become practically irrelevant.
然而,在傑佛瑞斯最近的領導下,Abercrombie & Fitch 幾乎變得無關緊要。
It might sound a little simple, but great retailing all starts with great product.
這聽起來可能有點簡單,但偉大的零售業都始於偉大的產品。
And CEO Fran Horowitz knew that when she stepped in in 2017.
CEO Fran Horowitz 在 2017 年上任時就知道這一點。
They took a look at what people were wearing and they took a look at what they had in their store.
他們看了看人們的穿著,又看了看自己店裡的東西。
And it was very, very narrow and very limited in terms of merchandise selection for what today's customer wants.
就商品選擇而言,它非常、非常狹窄,而且非常有限,無法滿足當今顧客的需求。
Horowitz is what the retail industry refers to as a merchant.
Horowitz 就是零售業所說的商人。
Before she took the helm of Abercrombie, she spent her career in merchandising.
在執掌 Abercrombie 之前,她的職業生涯一直在商品推銷領域。
Her job was to know what customers wanted and how to sell it to them.
她的工作就是了解客戶需要什麼,以及如何向他們推銷。
You can be great with finances, but you have to understand merchandising.
你可以精通財務,但你必須瞭解商品銷售。
You have to understand assortment planning, assortment mix.
你必須瞭解分類規劃和分類組合。
You have to understand our supply chain and how it works.
你必須瞭解我們的供應鏈及其運作方式。
But if you don't understand the psychology of a customer, good luck to you.
但如果你不瞭解顧客的心理,那就祝你好運了。
Abercrombie started conducting exhaustive market research so it could figure out who its new customer was and what that shopper wanted.
Abercrombie 開始進行詳盡的市場調研,以瞭解誰是新顧客,顧客需要什麼。
Getting close to that customer, understanding what they're looking for is the win.
貼近客戶,瞭解他們的需求才是制勝之道。
When you put out there a great product, fashion and an equation that they're excited about, they're willing to spend.
當你推出一款優秀的產品、時尚和等式,讓他們感到興奮時,他們就會願意消費。
Within a couple of years, the assortment was completely changed.
沒過幾年,產品種類就完全改變了。
Heavily branded t-shirts and jeans were swapped for a range of sophisticated essentials.
烙印濃重的 T 恤和牛仔褲被換成了一系列精緻的必需品。
It's now a brand that's focused on millennials, and obviously they stretch across quite a large age range.
現在,它是一個專注於千禧一代的品牌,顯然,他們的年齡跨度相當大。
And what those customers wanted was something that's fashionable, but also comfortable to wear.
這些客戶想要的是既時尚又穿著舒適的產品。
Something that's not too stylish, not too over-logoed, but that actually still has nice embellishments and twists, and they feel good in wearing those products.
產品不要太時尚,不要太誇張,但要有漂亮的點綴和轉折,讓他們穿起來感覺良好。
It also broadened its assortment.
它還擴大了產品種類。
Abercrombie started offering an athletic apparel line in more categories like dresses and matching sets.
Abercrombie 開始提供更多類別的運動服裝系列,如連衣裙和配套套裝。
It also focused its Hollister brand.
該公司還將重點放在其 Hollister 品牌上。
Part of the reason why Abercrombie's comeback has been so remarkable is because they did it at a time when consumers were cutting back on things like new clothes.
Abercrombie 的東山再起之所以如此令人矚目,部分原因在於他們是在消費者減少購買新衣服的時候做到這一點的。
Take fellow apparel retailer Gap, which lost market share last year.
以服裝零售商 Gap 為例,該公司去年的市場份額有所下降。
Why?
為什麼?
Executives blamed it on so-called product acceptance challenges, which is a nice way of saying that Gap made clothes that people just didn't want to buy.
高階主管們將其歸咎於所謂的產品接受度挑戰,說得好聽點就是 Gap 生產的衣服人們就是不想買。
A growing backlash this morning against the retailer Abercrombie and Fitch.
今天上午,針對零售商 Abercrombie and Fitch 的反彈日益高漲。
The popper-style chain accused of discriminating against overweight customers making clothes only to the thin.
這家流行風格的連鎖店被指控歧視過胖顧客,只為瘦子製作衣服。
And the CEO says it's all by design.
CEO 說,這一切都是設計。
Under Abercrombie's former CEO, Mike Jeffries, the company only marketed to a certain type of person.
在 Abercrombie 前任 CEO 麥克·傑佛瑞斯的管理下,公司只針對某一類人進行營銷。
Super skinny, blonde, young, preppy, beautiful.
超瘦、金髮、年輕、前衛、漂亮。
The brand became at one point extremely toxic.
該品牌一度變得毒性極強。
In 2006, Jeffries told Salon Magazine that Abercrombie was only for good-looking, cool kids.
2006 年,傑佛瑞斯告訴《沙龍雜誌》,Abercrombie 只適合長得好看、酷的孩子。
He said part of the business model was based on excluding others that didn't fit in with the brand's image.
他說,商業模式的一部分是基於排斥其他不符合品牌形象的人。
The comments resurfaced in 2013, causing a major fiasco for the brand.
2013 年,這些評論再次出現,給該品牌帶來了一場大風波。
It was seen as being very exclusionary at a time when the whole market was moving to a more inclusive model.
在整個市場都在向更具包容性的模式轉變的時候,這種模式被認為具有很強的排斥性。
It's great to target a specific narrow audience, but if you're going to do it at the expense of earning revenue and profits, well, what you're doing is you're destroying your own brand.
以特定的小範圍閱聽人為目標固然很好,但如果以犧牲收入和利潤為代價,那麼你所做的就是在毀掉自己的品牌。
Slowly, Abercrombie changed.
慢慢地,Abercrombie 變了。
In 2021, the company started offering a curve-love fit in a range of extended sizes.
2021 年,該公司開始提供一系列加寬尺碼的「曲線之愛」版型。
It was also an early adopter of TikTok, working with an army of influencers to help its free brand go viral.
它也是 TikTok 的早期採用者,與一大批有影響力的人合作,幫助其免費品牌實現病毒式傳播。
I wanted to try their curve-love jeans.
我想試試他們的「曲線之愛」牛仔褲。
Has made some decent strides in becoming a more equitable brand.
在成為一個更加公平的品牌方面取得了一些不錯的進步。
I'm just an average chick who loves and appreciates the new Abercrombie clothing.
我只是一個喜歡並欣賞新款 Abercrombie 服裝的普通女孩。
The affiliates and the influencers are a very big part of our business.
聯盟行銷和網紅是我們生意的重要組成部分。
That user-generated content that they create is something that really resonates with our consumer.
他們創造的用戶生成內容能真正與我們的消費者產生共鳴。
People count on and believe their friends and their peers more than they believe what a company is telling you.
比起公司的宣傳,人們更相信自己的朋友和同行。
And we've learned that through the ages.
從古至今,我們都學到了這一點。
So that's a very important part of what we do.
這是我們工作中非常重要的一部分。
We have a creator suite where many people advocate on behalf of our brand.
我們有一個創作者套件,有很多人代表我們的品牌進行宣傳。
Some of it's done organically.
有些是有機完成的。
Some of it is done through partnerships.
其中一些工作是通過夥伴關係完成的。
There's lots of different ways to approach it.
有很多不同的方法。
Kristen Dolan has spent nearly 15 years in the advertising industry, most recently in influencer marketing, helping big brands like McDonald's, Hilton, and Free People reach a wider audience.
Kristen Dolan 在廣告業工作了近 15 年,最近從事的是網紅行銷,幫助麥當勞、希爾頓和 Free People 等大品牌擴大閱聽人範圍。
She says that authentic marketing, not just splashy billboards and magazine spreads, was critical to communicating Abercrombie's rebrand.
她說,真實的市場行銷,而不僅僅是華麗的廣告牌和雜誌版面,對於傳播 Abercrombie 的品牌重塑至關重要。
Nine out of ten consumers trust influencers over brands.
每 10 位消費者中就有 9 位信任網紅,而不是品牌。
And influencer ads deliver 44% higher attention metrics and six times higher return on ad spend on average compared to social benchmarks.
與社交基準相比,網紅廣告的關注度指標高出 44%,廣告支出回報率平均高出六倍。
People want to see themselves represented in content full stop.
人們希望在內容中看到自己的形象,這一點毋庸置疑。
And when people feel represented in content and messaging, that leads to better business outcomes.
當人們在內容和資訊中感到自己被代表時,就會產生更好的業務成果。
With the right product and marketing in place, the back end got a fix too.
有了正確的產品和行銷方式,後端也得到了修復。
She closed stores that were unprofitable.
她關閉了那些無利可圖的商店。
She got out of many of the international markets.
她退出了許多國際市場。
She took a look at headcount.
她看了一眼人數。
She took a look at how inventory was being ordered and sourced.
她檢查了庫存的訂購和採購方式。
Like other retailers that were big in the 1990s and 2000s, Abercrombie had hundreds of stores and malls across the country.
與 1990 年代和 2000 年代的其他大型零售商一樣,Abercrombie 在全國擁有數百家門店和商場。
Many of those shopping centers have shut down or are dying.
其中許多購物中心已經關閉或正在消亡。
Since 2010, Abercrombie has closed more than 700 locations.
自 2010 年以來,Abercrombie 已關閉了 700 多家分店。
They're opening stores again of a smaller square footage with a different look and feel than it had in the past.
他們將再次開設面積較小、外觀和感覺與過去不同的商店。
The newer stores are light. They're bright.
較新的商店都很明亮。它們很亮。
There's a lot of natural wood fixturing.
有很多天然木質固定裝置。
Everything is laid out very cleanly and clearly.
所有內容都非常簡潔明瞭。
And they're actually very engaging places to shop.
實際上,這些購物場所非常吸引人。
The company now has about 760 stores worldwide with 60 new store openings planned this year along with 65 remodels.
該公司目前在全球擁有約 760 家門店,今年計劃新開 60 家門店,同時進行 65 次改造。
While Abercrombie's store footprint is down by about 10% compared to 2019, productivity per square foot is up by 18%.
與 2019 年相比,Abercrombie 的店鋪面積減少了約 10%,但每平方英尺的生產率卻提高了 18%。
Abercrombie also revamped its supply chain and stopped relying on promotions to drive sales.
Abercrombie 還改造了供應鏈,不再依靠促銷來拉動銷售。
It's now seeing its highest profits in more than a decade and beating rivals like Urban Outfitters, Gap, and American Eagle.
現在,它的利潤達到了十多年來的最高水準,並擊敗了 Urban Outfitters、Gap 和 American Eagle 等競爭對手。
Abercrombie has come a long way from where it was.
與過去相比,Abercrombie 走過了漫長的道路。
But will it continue to be a winner?
但它會繼續成為贏家嗎?
2024 could be a slower year for the company.
2024 年對該公司來說可能是比較緩慢的一年。
It was a big winner of the quiet luxury trend in 2023, but now maximalist styles are back in.
它曾是 2023 年靜謐奢華風潮的大贏家,但現在極簡主義風格又開始流行起來。
On top of that, analysts say there's still more work to do on its Hollister brand, which is about half of overall sales.
此外,分析師稱,其 Hollister 品牌仍有許多工作要做,該品牌的銷售額約佔總銷售額的一半。
Despite all of the success, the company still hasn't topped the all-time highs it saw in its heyday.
儘管取得了如此多的成功,該公司仍未達到其全盛時期的歷史最高點。
Still behind in profits and sales and just isn't as large as it once was.
利潤和銷售額仍然落後,規模也大不如前。
We've been talking about our global opportunity.
自 2022 年 6 月以來,我們一直在談論我們的全球機遇。
Since June of 2022, we did our last investor day, how we really see that as a big opportunity for us.
我們舉辦了最後一次投資者日活動,我們認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。
So we've got localized teams really building a lot of talent into both London and into Shanghai.
我們的本地化團隊在倫敦和上海都培養了大量人才。
They're localizing the assortments.
他們正在本地化分類。
They're working on appropriate promotions for their calendars.
他們正在為日曆制定適當的促銷活動。
So we're excited about the progress that we're seeing.
我們對看到的進展感到興奮。
They're very conscious about where they're going to get future growth from.
他們非常清楚未來的增長點在哪裡。
And that gives me a lot of confidence in the business and the brand going forwards.
這讓我對企業和品牌的未來充滿信心。
So I think we're still going to see Abercrombie & Fitch be one of the winners, one of the leaders in the market,
所以我認為我們仍然會看到 Abercrombie & Fitch 成為贏家之一、市場領導者之一,
even if their growth rates come down off these great highs that they've delivered across 2023.
即使他們的成長率從 2023 年實現的高點回落。
Analysts remain bullish.
分析師們依然看好。
Among the major investment banks and research firms, none have a sell rating on the stock.
在主要投資銀行和研究公司中,沒有一家對該股給予賣出評級。
I'm looking for sales growth to be in the mid-single-digit range.
我希望銷售額能有個位數的增長。
And I'm looking for earnings growth, even this year, to be a double-digit earnings growth rate.
即使是今年,我也希望盈利增長能達到兩位數。
Abercrombie & Fitch has built up, I think, a very defensible proposition.
我認為,Abercrombie & Fitch 已經建立了一個非常有說服力的主張。
And to maintain it, all they have to do is keep adding the requisite value and being meaningful to their customers.
而要保持這一地位,他們所要做的就是不斷增加必要的價值,並對客戶有意義。
And people are willing to spend those dollars.
人們願意花這些錢。
And that's really what good fashion is all about.
這才是時尚的真諦。