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  • Joining us this morning is Stacey Rasgun, Bernstein Research Managing Director and Senior Semiconductor Analyst, has an outperform and a target of $130,000.

  • That is below the current price, Stacey, and we've seen some $150,000, some, I think Rosenblatt said $200,000.

  • Are you staying put?

  • Look, we've had this conversation before.

  • We don't change the target price every other day, and the stock's had a really good run, especially recently.

  • You know, what drives it?

  • Look, it's going to be earnings and it's going to be multiples.

  • You look at where it's trading, multiples come up, it's probably mid-40s now, which is not that bad.

  • It's not bad at all, frankly, given the growth it's had.

  • I think it was mid-60s before the run started a year ago.

  • You know, but you look at kind of like the trajectory of where they're on, you look at where the numbers are going, like, it's not surprising that the stock has had the run that it's had, and we'll revisit the target in good time, you know, depending on how things go.

  • So don't take it too serious.

  • Don't take the individual sell-side target too seriously at any given point in time.

  • No, you're right, and it's been hard to keep up with NVIDIA in general.

  • It's a good problem to have.

  • For sure.

  • Yeah, if you've been recommending it, no doubt about it.

  • I do want to drill in a little bit, though, on sort of the valuation, where it has been before, because I've been trying to make the point that it was at a higher forward PE when the forward estimates were way, way too low, OK?

  • In the last four quarters, they were low by 50 percent or even actually 100 percent.

  • So in other words, it really, a year ago, was trading at 22 times the earnings we got, not 45 or 50.

  • So I wonder where that sits now in terms of whether you think the earnings outlook on a consensus basis has caught up with what reality is likely to be.

  • Yeah, I would say I think the buy side, my clients, their expectations are probably above where the sell side is, which is not an atypical sort of thing, frankly.

  • But yeah, I think the sell side estimates for next year, you're probably what, mid-30s in EPS.

  • I'm sure the buy side is well as $40 plus for next year.

  • So you're talking, I think you're talking pre-split numbers.

  • I'm sorry, pre-split, divide all of my- Drop a zero off, but you're right.

  • Yeah.

  • Zero off, but you get the point, right?

  • And that's the reason why, frankly, why the stock has been running.

  • It's because of that.

  • I always say the numbers that are really important, it's not my numbers or my colleagues' numbers, it's my clients' numbers.

  • Where are those buy side expectations?

  • That's why stocks sometimes will go up on bad prints or down on good prints sometimes if you don't meet those buy side expectations.

  • I do think buy side expectations are higher, but I don't think the buy side expectations are nuts either.

  • They're very plausible given the trajectory they've been on, the product cycles that they have.

  • They're launching a brand new cycle at the end of this year.

  • They'll have all of next year to sell it at higher ASPs, higher content, and frankly, even higher demand, like the demand showing no signs of slowing at this point.

  • Yeah, and Jensen has said we're going to see a lot of Blackwell revenues this year.

  • Stacey, I'm wondering how you think about how much share of the market of the AI spend for chips, et cetera, is going to Nvidia versus competitors, what we've seen in AMD in the past month or so is a real drop off.

  • I'm wondering where you see that sort of rivalry, if you could even call it that at this point.

  • Frankly, the most relevant second source, it's probably not even the other merchant suppliers like AMD and Intel.

  • It's folks like Broadcom who are making chips for the hyperscalers, who are by and large doing their own chips, at least for their own internal workloads.

  • Broadcom, their AI revenue guide for this year is like $11 billion or more.

  • I bet of that $11 billion, seven or eight of it is probably like what they call ASICs, but these custom chips that they're making for Google and Meta and that sort of thing.

  • AMD, they've said, quote unquote, more than $4 billion.

  • I suspect investor expectations are closer to five to six, which I don't want to knock AMD too much.

  • It was zero a year ago, so even zero to four over a year is a lot.

  • Intel said they'll do $500 million in the back half.

  • It's a drop in the bucket.

  • I mean, NVIDIA is probably going to do $100 billion, so you can kind of see where the dollars are flowing.

  • But that's sort of a breakdown of where share is today.

  • NVIDIA has still got the lion's share.

  • They'll probably keep it.

Joining us this morning is Stacey Rasgun, Bernstein Research Managing Director and Senior Semiconductor Analyst, has an outperform and a target of $130,000.

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