Name: 特朗普與拜登防止 "中國衝擊 "的計劃 | WSJ (Trump’s vs. Biden’s Plans to Prevent Another ‘China Shock’ | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2024-06-27T06:36:14.000Z
Duration: 7 min 16 s

I want competition with China, not conflict.

我希望與中國競爭，而不是衝突。

I would impose tariffs to confront China's massive theft of America's jobs.

我將徵收關稅，以應對中國大規模竊取美國就業機會的行為。

The rhetoric that you hear from Donald Trump and Joe Biden on trade with China, it's similar in a lot of important ways.

唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）和喬-拜登（Joe Biden）在對華貿易問題上的言辭在很多重要方面都很相似。

They share the same overall philosophy, which is that the U.S. has done too much of it in the past.

他們的總體理念相同，即美國過去做得太多了。

President Biden and Donald Trump are both issuing blueprints to compete against China, disrupting the free trade status quo Washington has held for decades.

拜登總統和唐納德-特朗普都發布了與中國競爭的藍圖，打破了華盛頓幾十年來堅持的自由貿易現狀。

Here's a look at the 2024 election foes' different trade strategies and how they could affect U.S. consumers.

以下是 2024 年大選對手的不同貿易策略，以及它們可能對美國消費者產生的影響。

To understand the trade relations between China and the U.S., let's first rewind to 2001, the year China joined the World Trade Organization.

要了解中美之間的貿易關係，首先讓我們把時間倒回到 2001 年，也就是中國加入世界貿易組織的那一年。

Once China had joined the WTO, a lot of uncertainty about what would happen in the relationship disappeared.

中國加入世貿組織後，兩國關係中的許多不確定性就消失了。

This step represents great progress for China, the WTO, and the world trading system.

這一步標誌著中國、世貿組織和世界貿易體系的巨大進步。

Between 2001 and the Great Financial Crisis, the Chinese economy underwent enormous growth and productivity growth and a huge export surge.

從 2001 年到大金融危機期間，中國經濟經歷了巨大的增長和生產率的提高，出口也大幅飆升。

A lot of foreign investment went into China, and a lot of the export surge was driven by so-called foreign-invested enterprises who used China as a processing platform for exports.

大量外資進入中國，所謂的外商投資企業利用中國作為出口加工平臺，推動了大量出口激增。

U.S. imports from China grew more than fivefold over two decades, reaching a high of more than $560 billion in 2022.

二十年來，美國從中國的進口增長了五倍多，在 2022 年達到 5600 多億美元的高點。

At the same time, we saw the beginning of what turned out to be a pretty rapid decline in manufacturing employment in the U.S.

與此同時，我們看到美國製造業的就業率開始迅速下降。

And this decline in employment has been linked to opening of trade with China.

而就業率的下降與對華貿易的開放有關。

That's the so-called China shock narrative.

While economists are divided over the magnitude of the China shock, many agree that There was this, you know, massive flood of cheap Chinese goods that came into the United States, and factories and workers in the United States that were building those same things suddenly couldn't compete.

雖然經濟學家們對中國衝擊的嚴重程度眾說紛紜，但許多人都認為，大量廉價的中國商品湧入美國，而在美國生產這些商品的工廠和工人突然無法與之競爭。

That was a kind of political undercurrent that really jumped into center stage when Donald Trump ran for presidency the first time in 2016.

這是一種政治暗流，當唐納德-特朗普在 2016 年首次競選總統時，這種暗流才真正躍上舞臺中央。

Because we can't continue to allow China to rape our country.

因為我們不能繼續讓中國強姦我們的國家。

During the Trump administration in 2018, the U.S. levied tariffs on roughly $360 billion worth of Chinese imports from electronics to toys to apparel.

2018 年特朗普執政期間，美國對價值約 3600 億美元的中國進口商品徵收關稅，從電子產品到玩具再到服裝。

His approach to China was completely different than what came before.

他對中國的態度與之前完全不同。

About two thirds of our imports from China were now subject to these large taxes.

目前，我國從中國進口的商品中約有三分之二需要繳納這些鉅額稅款。

So that fundamentally changed how we viewed trade with China.

是以，這從根本上改變了我們對對華貿易的看法。

Biden, despite divisions within his own administration, has kept Trump's tariffs in place, even amid high inflation.

拜登不顧自己政府內部的分歧，即使在高通脹的情況下，仍堅持特朗普的關稅政策。

One of the key initiatives under the Biden administration has been trying to build up a clean energy industry in the United States.

拜登政府的重要舉措之一就是努力在美國建立清潔能源產業。

And at the same time, China has been really massively expanding their production of some of these same clean energy goods.

與此同時，中國也一直在大規模擴大這些清潔能源產品的生產。

There's been within the Biden administration increasing concern about how China is directing its economy.

拜登政府內部對中國如何引導本國經濟的關注與日俱增。

That concern was clear in May when Biden elevated the Trump era tariffs on an array of imports.

今年 5 月，拜登提升了特朗普時代對一系列進口商品徵收關稅的水準，這種擔憂顯而易見。

Among the increases were Chinese electric vehicles, which went from 25 percent to 100 percent.

其中，中國的電動汽車從 25% 增長到 100%。

Steel and aluminum products increased from 7.5 percent to 25 percent.

鋼材和鋁產品從 7.5% 增加到 25%。

Solar cells rose from 25 percent to 50 percent.

The White House said the new tariffs would apply to roughly $18 billion worth of products from China.

白宮表示，新關稅將適用於價值約 180 億美元的中國產品。

China heavily subsidized all these products, pushing Chinese companies to produce far more than the rest of the world can absorb, and then dumping the excess products onto the market at unfairly low prices.

中國為所有這些產品提供大量補貼，迫使中國公司生產遠遠超過世界其他國家所能吸收的產品，然後以不公平的低價向市場傾銷多餘的產品。

In a sense or very real way, these tariffs are a counterpart to the industrial policy that we've been doing at home.

從某種意義上說，或者說從非常現實的角度來說，這些關稅與我們在國內實施的產業政策是相對應的。

We can't be producing autos and solar and even semiconductors and then still importing very low cost items that undercut the production that's being done in the United States.

我們不能在生產汽車、太陽能甚至半導體的同時，還進口成本極低的產品，從而削弱美國的生產實力。

要知道，我們大多數人都預見到了這一點。

It's like the other hand of the industrial policy.

A tariff is a tax typically intended to limit the amount of an imported good and protect domestic jobs.

關稅是一種稅收，通常旨在限制進口商品的數量，保護國內就業。

Who ultimately pays for it is a long running debate.

最終由誰來買單是一個長期爭論的問題。

The economic evidence suggests that the current tariffs, rather than forcing Chinese sellers to charge less, were largely passed on to American buyers.

經濟證據表明，當前的關稅非但沒有迫使中國賣家降低價格，反而在很大程度上轉嫁給了美國買家。

The White House argues Biden's trade plan is more targeted than Trump's, who has made it clear that he's willing to slap on even higher tariffs if he becomes the next president.

白宮認為，拜登的貿易計劃比特朗普的計劃更有針對性，特朗普已明確表示，如果他成為下一任總統，他願意徵收更高的關稅。

I will put a 200 percent tax on every car that comes in from those plants.

我將對這些工廠生產的每輛汽車徵收 200% 的稅。

Among his proposals, Trump has suggested imposing a 10 percent levy on global imports, and that tariff goes to at least 60 percent on all imports from China, roughly $430 billion worth of goods.

在他的提議中，特朗普建議對全球進口商品徵收 10% 的關稅，對從中國進口的所有商品（大約價值 4300 億美元）徵收至少 60% 的關稅。

Americans are bearing the burden of these tariffs.

美國人正在承受這些關稅的負擔。

Low income people are burdened most heavily, middle income second heavily and the richest people the least heavily.

低收入者的負擔最重，中等收入者次之，最富有者負擔最輕。

You might think, well, rich person spends a lot of money, so they must be paying a lot of these taxes.

你可能會想，有錢人花的錢多，肯定要交很多稅。

Well, that's true, but it's a very small share of their income.

沒錯，但這隻佔他們收入的很小一部分。

Trump defended his proposals in a March interview with CNBC, saying that tax cuts could help offset his planned tariff increases.

特朗普在今年 3 月接受 CNBC 採訪時為自己的提議進行了辯護，稱減稅可以幫助抵消他計劃增加的關稅。

They are the boss of the United States, almost like we're a subsidiary of China.

他們是美國的老大，就像我們是中國的附屬國一樣。

In recent months, Beijing has turned to Europe for a more accommodating stance on China.

最近幾個月，中國政府開始向歐洲尋求對中國更加寬容的態度。

Between the United States and China, a kind of key constituency and almost swing vote between the two of them is the European Union.

在美國和中國之間，歐盟是一個關鍵選區，幾乎是它們之間的搖擺票。

Europe, for what it's worth, does share broadly some of the American concerns about Chinese economic practices.

不管怎麼說，歐洲確實廣泛認同美國對中國經濟行為的一些擔憂。

But there is still overall in Europe a hesitance to go down the exact same road that the United States is going down when it comes to China.

但總體而言，歐洲仍在猶豫是否要走與美國在中國問題上完全相同的道路。

Whether Biden would institute additional tariffs against China during a second term is unclear.

拜登是否會在第二任期內對中國徵收額外關稅尚不清楚。

A spokesperson for Biden's re-election campaign told the Journal that Biden is taking a targeted approach to protect American workers and industry.

拜登競選連任的發言人告訴《日刊》，拜登正在採取有針對性的方法來保護美國工人和工業。

A spokesperson for Trump did not respond to the Journal's request for comment.

特朗普的發言人沒有迴應本刊的置評請求。

Well, tariffs definitely increase prices, so that's a negative that both candidates would probably want to avoid, but they can't.

關稅肯定會提高價格，所以這是兩位候選人都想避免的負面因素，但他們無法避免。

So they have to decide how much they want to use tariffs as an instrument.

是以，他們必須決定在多大程度上利用關稅作為工具。

No matter who wins this election, whether it's Trump or Biden, we will be living in the United States where the most powerful people in the country think about these fundamental issues in a very different way than they did even 10 years ago.

無論誰贏得大選，無論是特朗普還是拜登，我們都將生活在這樣一個美國：在這個國家裡，最有權勢的人對這些基本問題的思考方式甚至與 10 年前截然不同。

 I think that that kind of guiding goal of building more things in the United States, making more things in the United States and not relying on China will be here to stay.

我認為，在美國建造更多的東西、在美國製造更多的東西、不依賴中國的這種指導性目標將繼續存在。