Name: 最偉大的投資者如何在市場和生活中獲勝 | William Green | TEDxBerkshires (How the Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life | William Green | TEDxBerkshires)
Uploaded: 2024-06-28T10:31:30.000Z
Duration: 17 min 43 s

My fascination with investing began when I was in my twenties.

我對投資的痴迷始於二十多歲時。

程度副詞

My brother, Andrew, and I had sold an apartment that we owned in London and I had to figure out what to do with this relatively modest windfall.

我和弟弟安德魯賣掉了我們在倫敦擁有的一套公寓，我必須想好如何處理這筆相對不多的意外之財。

I started studying the stock market and I quickly became obsessed.

我開始研究股票市場，並很快沉迷其中。

I wanted to become financially independent, but I didn't much fancy the idea of spending my life in an office, taking orders from an annoying boss.

我想在經濟上獨立，但我不喜歡一輩子待在辦公室裡，聽命於一個討厭的老闆。

And when I discovered the stock market, I thought, this is spectacular, I can get rich without getting my hands dirty.

當我發現股票市場時，我想，這太了不起了，我不用弄髒自己的手就能發財。

There was something almost magical about the idea that you could make money just by using your mind.

只要動動腦子就能賺錢，這種想法近乎神奇。

I knew nothing about business or economics.

If I'm lucky, I can count to about eight with a calculator.

如果幸運的話，我可以用計算器數到八。

But I had one tremendous advantage, which is that I was a journalist, writing for magazines like Forbes and Fortune, which meant that I could actually interview all of these legendary investors who did know what they were doing.

但我有一個巨大的優勢，那就是我是一名記者，為《福布斯》和《財富》等雜誌撰稿，這意味著我可以採訪所有這些傳奇投資者，他們確實知道自己在做什麼。

Over the last 25 years, I've spent hundreds of hours interviewing more than 50 of the world's greatest investors, including many billionaires.

在過去的 25 年裡，我花了數百個小時採訪了 50 多位世界上最偉大的投資者，其中包括許多億萬富翁。

I got to do things like travel to the Bahamas to spend a day with Sir John Templeton, an 86-year-old billionaire who was probably the greatest international stock picker of the 20th century.

我可以做一些事情，比如去巴哈馬與約翰-鄧普頓爵士共度一天，這位 86 歲的億萬富翁可能是 20 世紀最偉大的國際選股家。

In the days after 9-11, when the world seemed to be falling apart,

在 "9-11 "事件後的日子裡，世界似乎正在分崩離析、

I got to spend several days with Bill Miller, who was the most famous mutual fund manager of his generation.

我和比爾-米勒（Bill Miller）共處了幾天，他是他那一代最著名的共同基金經理。

The stock market was crashing, but Miller was relaxed and cheerful.

I stood beside him, watching while he bet hundreds of millions of dollars on beaten down stocks that everybody else was desperate to sell.

我站在他身邊，看著他把數億美元押在別人都急於拋售的跌停股票上。

I remember saying to him, you've got to be so ballsy to do what you do.

我記得我對他說過，你一定要有膽量才能做你的工作。

And Miller said, yeah, but I've also got to be right.

米勒說，是的，但我也必須是對的。

So I became captivated by this tiny elite of great investors who defied gravity by beating the market over many years.

是以，我被這些偉大投資者中的極少數精英所吸引，他們多年來戰勝了市場，打破了地心引力。

I wanted to understand what insights, principles, character traits and habits enabled them to win, and could I become more like them?

我想了解是什麼見解、原則、性格特徵和習慣讓他們獲勝，我能否變得更像他們？

The greatest investors have taught me not only to invest better, but to think better, and possibly even to live better.

最偉大的投資者不僅教會我如何更好地投資，還教會我如何更好地思考，甚至可能教會我如何更好地生活。

They taught me that it's all about simplicity, subtraction, and not being a fool.

他們告訴我，一切都要從簡、做減法和不做傻瓜開始。

One of the most famous investors I've interviewed is called Joel Greenblatt.

我採訪過的最有名的投資者之一叫喬爾-格林布拉特（Joel Greenblatt）。

His investment returns are the stuff of legend.

His hedge fund returned about 40% a year over 20 years.

20 年來，他的對沖基金每年的回報率約為 40%。

At that rate, $1 million turns into $836 million.

按此計算，100 萬美元將變成 8.36 億美元。

I think you'll agree it's a pretty nifty trick.

我想你會同意這是個非常巧妙的技巧。

A few years ago, I'm sitting on Greenblatt's patio in the shade in the Hamptons, and we're sipping iced tea, and I'm gazing out at his magnificent view of the Atlantic Ocean.

幾年前，我坐在漢普頓陰涼處格林布拉特的露臺上，我們喝著冰茶，我凝視著他遠處大西洋的壯麗景色。

Greenblatt is looking suntanned and relaxed.

格林布拉特看上去皮膚黝黑，神情輕鬆。

He's wearing jeans and loafers with no socks.

他穿著牛仔褲和休閒鞋，沒穿襪子。

And I say to him, what's the secret of investing?

He says, William, it's incredibly simple, and it all comes down to this.

他說，威廉，事情非常簡單，歸根結底就是這樣。

He says, figure out what a business is worth, and then buy it for much less.

他說，搞清楚企業的價值，然後用更低的價格買下它。

I'm looking at him, and I'm thinking, this is so cool.

Here's this guy who's cracked the code of how to beat the market.

這個人破解了如何戰勝市場的密碼。

He's distilled all of the complexity of investing into one simple principle.

他將投資的複雜性提煉為一個簡單的原則。

I don't need to waste my time trying to figure out whether the stock market is going to rise or fall.

我不需要浪費時間去猜測股市是漲是跌。

I just need to value a business, and then buy its stock for much less than it's worth.

我只需要對一家企業進行估值，然後以遠遠低於其價值的價格購買其股票。

The fact that this is simple doesn't mean that it's easy.

And when I started to think about this honestly,

當我開始誠實地思考這個問題時、

我有一個非常令人不安的認識。

I thought, well, I don't actually know how to value a business.

我想，我其實不知道如何給企業估值。

I'm not even that interested in valuing businesses.

我甚至對企業估值都不感興趣。

So I shouldn't be buying individual company stocks, because this is not a game that I'm equipped to win.

是以，我不應該購買個別公司的股票，因為這不是一場我有能力獲勝的遊戲。

And if there's one thing I've learned from the greatest investors, it's that you don't want to play games that you're not equipped to win.

如果說我從最偉大的投資者身上學到了什麼，那就是你不要玩你沒有能力贏的遊戲。

The more I started thinking about simplicity, the more I realized that it's a huge advantage to have a few simple, robust, deeply held beliefs, a simple set of guiding principles.

我越是思考 "簡單"，就越是意識到，擁有一些簡單、堅定、深刻的信念，一套簡單的指導原則，是一個巨大的優勢。

Why? Because we live in an extremely confusing world, and these simple principles can help us, they can guide us through the fog so we don't get too confused.

為什麼？因為我們生活在一個極其混亂的世界裡，而這些簡單的原則可以幫助我們，它們可以引導我們穿過迷霧，讓我們不至於太困惑。

I began to realize that the ability to keep things simple is actually a superpower.

我開始意識到，保持簡單的能力其實是一種超能力。

It's one of the secrets of success, both in investing and life.

無論是在投資還是生活中，這都是成功的祕訣之一。

Then I started to get excited, because I realized everywhere I looked, I found more examples of simplicity, in fact, thousands of years.

然後我開始興奮起來，因為我發現無論我看哪裡，都能找到更多簡約的例子，事實上，有數千年之久。

For example, I remember studying the Old Testament and learning that it contains 613 commandments.

例如，我記得在學習《舊約全書》時，瞭解到其中包含 613 條戒律。

And I thought, who can remember so many rules, let alone obey them all?

我想，誰能記住這麼多規則，更不用說全部遵守它們了？

That's when I realized, well, this is why we needed a top ten list, the ten commandments.

這時我才意識到，這就是為什麼我們需要一個十佳名單，即十誡。

But if you actually try to list the ten commandments, how many of them would you get right?

但是，如果你真的想列出十條戒律，你能答對幾條呢？

Thou shalt not kill, thou shalt not steal, thou shalt not covet thy neighbor's wife.

不可殺人，不可偷盜，不可貪戀鄰居的妻子。

The last time I tried this, I got three out of ten right, but I graded myself dishonestly and gave myself six out of ten.

上一次我試著這樣做時，10 分中我答對了 3 分，但我給自己打了不誠實的分數，給自己打了 6 分。

And I was wondering, does that actually violate one of the ten commandments?

我想知道，這是否違反了十誡中的一條？

And then I thought, I don't know, I can't remember.

然後我想，我不知道，我不記得了。

But then I realized, I remembered that there was a great sage 2,000 years ago who taught the most simple and timeless thing of all.

但後來我意識到，我記得兩千年前有一位偉大的聖人教導了最簡單、最永恆的道理。

The sage's name was Hillel, and he said he was asked to teach the entire Old Testament in the time that he was standing on one leg.

這位聖人名叫希勒爾，他說有人要求他在單腿站立的時間內講完整部《舊約全書》。

And he replied, do not do to your neighbor what is hateful to you.

他回答說，不要對你的鄰居做你所憎恨的事。

The Old Testament actually sums this idea up in just three Hebrew words, which translates as, and you shall love your neighbor as yourself.

實際上，《舊約全書》只用三個希伯來詞就概括了這一思想，翻譯過來就是 "你要愛人如己"。

Over the years, I saw that many of the greatest investors have this ability to simplify the game of investing.

多年來，我看到許多最偉大的投資者都有這種簡化投資遊戲的能力。

But what I also discovered is that they lead surprisingly simple lives.

但我也發現，他們的生活出奇地簡單。

I remember spending a couple of days with a famous investor named Tom Gaynor at his office in Virginia.

我記得曾與一位名叫湯姆-蓋納的著名投資人在他位於弗吉尼亞州的辦公室共度了幾天時光。

And it felt really like being in an extremely peaceful library.

這種感覺就像是在一個極其寧靜的圖書館裡。

At one point, Gaynor said to me, how many times have you heard my phone ring?

有一次，蓋諾對我說，你聽過我的電話響過多少次？

And I thought, actually, I haven't heard the phone ring more than once in the entire day.

我想，實際上，我一整天都沒聽到電話響過一次。

Well, Gaynor had actually consciously removed all of these distractions that could break his focus.

其實，蓋諾已經有意識地排除了所有這些可能分散他注意力的干擾因素。

Another time, I was with an investor named Laura Gerrits, and she's one of America's leading investors in foreign markets.

還有一次，我和一位名叫勞拉-格瑞茨的投資者在一起，她是美國在國外市場的主要投資者之一。

And I said to her, how do you structure your time?

我問她，你是如何安排時間的？

We're sitting there eating sushi in a restaurant in New York, and she says, well, every Friday is a creative day, and I don't schedule anything at all on Fridays.

我們坐在紐約的一家餐廳裡吃壽司，她說，每週五都是創意日，我在週五根本不安排任何事情。

And basically, she just goes to sit by a stream near her home in Utah, and she reads a book, she writes in her journal as a way of synthesizing her thoughts.

基本上，她只是坐在猶他州家附近的小溪邊，讀一本書，寫日記，以此來歸納自己的想法。

And Gerrits has traveled to about 75 countries, but she told me one of her favorite places on earth is a tiny, tiny island just off the coast of Australia, where there are only eight houses.

格利茨去過大約 75 個國家，但她告訴我，她最喜歡的地方之一是澳洲海岸附近的一個小島，那裡只有八座房子。

And she often retreats there with a stack of books, and she said, you actually have to get your groceries taken over there with you on a boat at the start of this trip.

她經常帶著一摞書在那裡閉關，她說，實際上，你必須在這次旅行開始時用船把你的日用品帶過去。

And she said to me, there's no internet access.

Her telephone, her cell phone, rarely works when she's there.

她在的時候，她的電話、手機很少能用。

But she said, that's just fine, because her disconnection from the noise and the hubbub and the mayhem and the frenetic pace of modern life is actually part of her competitive advantage.

但她說，這很好，因為她與嘈雜、喧囂、混亂和狂熱的現代生活節奏脫節，實際上是她競爭優勢的一部分。

It frees her up so that she can think, so that she can concentrate on the simple essence of her work, which is to analyze companies and to think about countries and stocks and what the future holds.

這讓她能夠解放思想，專注於她工作的簡單本質，即分析公司，思考國家和股票，以及未來會發生什麼。

What I started to realize is that all of the greatest investors have this obsession with reducing mental clutter so that they can focus on what's most important to them and what they're best at.

我開始意識到，所有最偉大的投資者都痴迷於減少頭腦中的雜念，這樣他們就能專注於對自己最重要和最擅長的事情。

And one way that you could describe this is actually the art of subtraction.

你可以用 "減法藝術 "來形容這一點。

And this idea of the art of subtraction has had a profound impact on my own life.

這種 "減法藝術 "的理念對我的生活產生了深遠的影響。

Like all of us, I'm constantly bombarded by emails and phone calls and Twitter notifications and Zoom meetings and all these other guilt-inducing reminders that I should constantly be doing more.

像我們所有人一樣，我經常被電子郵件、電話、Twitter 通知、Zoom 會議和所有其他令人內疚的提醒所轟炸，提醒我應該不斷做得更多。

And whenever I'm feeling scattered or stressed or overwhelmed,

每當我感到心煩意亂、壓力過大或不知所措時、

I remind myself of what I've learned from Gaynor and Gerrits, which is, I don't need to do more.

我提醒自己從蓋聶和格里茨身上學到的東西，那就是，我不需要做得更多。

I think about the few simple priorities that really will make a difference in my life.

我思考著真正能改變我生活的幾個簡單的優先事項。

Writing, reading, meditation, spending time with my family, exercise.

寫作、閱讀、冥想、陪伴家人、鍛鍊。

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最偉大的投資者如何在市場和生活中獲勝 | William Green | TEDxBerkshires (How the Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life | William Green | TEDxBerkshires)

constantly

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obvious

extremely