Name: 為什麼輝達、特斯拉、亞馬遜等公司都在大力發展 AI 仿生機器人？ (Why Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon And More Are Betting Big On AI-Powered Humanoid Robots)
Uploaded: 2024-07-09T03:08:31.000Z
Duration: 17 min 10 s

Hey, Digit, take the box with the heaviest animal and move it to Tower 4.

嘿，迪吉特，把裝著最重動物的箱子搬到 4 號塔。

轉承詞

This is Digit, a robot who sort of looks like a person, hence the name humanoid robot.

這就是 Digit，一個長得有點像人的機器人，是以被稱為人形機器人。

情態副詞

Technically, these are called bipedal humanoid robots.

從技術上講，這些機器人被稱為雙足仿人機器人。

Using semantic intelligence, it's able to interpret commands from people and then make its own decisions about how to act.

利用語義智能，它能夠解讀人們的指令，然後自行決定如何行動。

So the goal is for him to be able to interpret normal human language to say, hey, I need you to pick this box up, help me out in this instance.

是以，我們的目標是讓他能夠解釋正常的人類語言，說 "嘿，我需要你把這個盒子撿起來，幫我個忙"。

Yeah, and I think it will generally be probably less of a, I need you to do this one thing for me and more of a, do this for me forever in the corner of the facility.

是的，我想一般來說，我需要你為我做的事情可能會少一些，而更多的是在設施的角落裡永遠為我做這件事。

Robots like this one are catching the attention and billions of investment dollars from big tech companies like Amazon, Google, Nvidia and Microsoft.

像這樣的機器人正吸引著亞馬遜、谷歌、Nvidia 和微軟等大型科技公司的關注和數十億美元的投資。

Elon Musk is betting the future of Tesla on these machines.

埃隆-馬斯克將特斯拉的未來押在了這些機器上。

As you see Optimus develop, it's really going to transform the world, I think to a degree even greater than the cars.

隨著 "擎天柱 "的發展，它將真正改變世界，我認為其程度甚至超過汽車。

Some also argue robots like Digit can solve the world's labor crisis, filling jobs that are too dangerous or that people simply don't want.

也有人認為，像 Digit 這樣的機器人可以解決世界的勞動力危機，填補那些過於危險或人們根本不願意從事的工作。

They may even replace an aging workforce as people around the world have fewer kids.

他們甚至可能取代老齡化的勞動力，因為全世界的人都在減少生育。

Today in manufacturing, we're short about 300,000 people and it's something very similar in warehousing and logistics.

如今，在製造業，我們缺少大約 30 萬人，倉儲和物流業也是如此。

So we're somewhere around 600,000, 700,000 jobs we can't fill.

是以，我們大約有 60 到 70 萬個工作崗位無法填補。

那麼，為什麼突然受到關注呢？

These bots have seen quantum leaps in what they're capable of in just the past few years, thanks to AI.

得益於人工智能的發展，這些機器人的能力在過去幾年裡有了質的飛躍。

Generative AI is really a key unlock overall for what you can get a robot to do, let alone a humanoid robot.

對於機器人（更不用說仿人機器人）來說，生成式人工智能確實是一個關鍵的解鎖點。

機器人技術是人工智能與現實的結合。

We are really at the cusp of solving one of the grand challenges of humanity.

我們確實正處於解決人類重大挑戰之一的關鍵時刻。

There is probably a need in the future once the humanoids get a bit more clever, a bit more perhaps autonomy.

在未來，一旦人形機器人變得更聰明、更有自主性，也許就會有這種需要。

But until that point, I think the market will be fairly limited to PR spectacles.

但在此之前，我認為市場將僅限於公關眼鏡。

It all sounds great, but will we ever trust robots working in our houses, schools and nursing homes?

這一切聽起來都很美好，但我們會相信機器人在我們的房子、學校和養老院裡工作嗎？

栩栩如生到什麼程度才算栩栩如生？

And how should the U.S. think about global adversaries building similar fleets of humanoids?

美國應該如何看待全球對手建立類似的人形機器人艦隊？

CNBC explores the rise of these AI-driven humanoids and if they're really a cure-all for our global workforce problems, or if this is another tech bubble.

CNBC 探討了這些人工智能驅動的人形機器人的崛起，以及它們是否真的是解決全球勞動力問題的靈丹妙藥，或者這是否是又一個科技保麗龍。

This hardware has been around for decades.

Companies like Boston Dynamics, Honda, Sony and others have wowed the public with early versions of these robots.

波士頓動力（Boston Dynamics）、本田（Honda）、索尼（Sony）等公司已經推出了這些機器人的早期版本，令公眾驚歎不已。

The prevailing sort of answer has been the world is built to be occupied by humans.

最普遍的一種答案是，世界就是為人類居住而建造的。

If we want robots that are versatile, that can do a wide range of things, then having it adopt the humanoid form factor always made a lot of sense.

如果我們想要的機器人是多功能的，可以做各種各樣的事情，那麼讓它採用仿人的外形總是非常有意義的。

Recent leaps in artificial intelligence have resulted in leaps for robotics.

最近人工智能的飛躍帶動了機器人技術的飛躍。

The data that they use to train these robots, it's based in real-world scenarios.

他們用來訓練這些機器人的數據都是基於真實世界的場景。

Now a robot can be trained the same way a human is.

現在，機器人可以像人類一樣接受訓練。

We have this technology called teleoperation.

The person does the thing 200 times, we record all that data, and then we use that data to train these models.

這個人做這件事 200 次，我們記錄下所有數據，然後用這些數據來訓練這些模型。

And the AI models are very similar to the GPT-style generative AI models.

而人工智能模型與 GPT 類型的生成式人工智能模型非常相似。

You feed in the 200 trajectories and the system learns how the task is being done, and then the robot will do the task autonomously.

你輸入 200 條軌跡，系統就會學習任務是如何完成的，然後機器人就會自主完成任務。

If I go into a new space, I'm now not looking at spending months trying to code that problem.

如果我進入一個新的空間，我現在不用再花幾個月的時間來解決這個問題了。

I can potentially just generate it straight out of gen AI and be able to have Digit interact with new objects and in new environments without having to develop it all.

我有可能直接從 Gen AI 中生成它，並讓 Digit 在新的環境中與新的物體進行交互，而無需開發這一切。

AI models require massive quantities of data to train off of, and this is no different.

人工智能模型需要大量數據來訓練，這一點也不例外。

If you show the robot enough things, it starts to be able to do things that it hasn't been shown before.

如果你向機器人展示了足夠多的東西，它就會開始做一些以前從未展示過的事情。

Big tech is very interested in the big potential this technology promises.

大型科技公司對這項技術的巨大潛力非常感興趣。

If you're going to do AI at the frontier, you need to be partnered with Microsoft or NVIDIA or Google or one of the big players.

如果要在前沿領域開展人工智能，就必須與微軟、英偉達、谷歌或其他大公司合作。

They have resources that nobody else has, even governments.

他們擁有別人沒有的資源，甚至政府也沒有。

NVIDIA's been a great partner up until this point.

在此之前，英偉達一直是一個很好的合作伙伴。

We're using everything from their hardware to their simulation, and then recently have started working with them on foundation models as well.

從硬件到模擬，我們都在使用他們的產品，最近還開始與他們合作開發地基模型。

One of this industry's biggest proponents is Elon Musk.

埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）是這一行業最大的支持者之一。

He's made some bold predictions that Tesla's robot, Optimus, could propel it to a $25 trillion market cap and that it will amount to a majority of Tesla's long-term value with demand as high as 10 to 20 billion units.

他大膽預測，特斯拉的機器人 "擎天柱"（Optimus）可能會將特斯拉推向 25 萬億美元的市值，它將佔特斯拉長期價值的大部分，需求量高達 100 億至 200 億臺。

Tesla is arguably the world's biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.

特斯拉可以說是世界上最大的機器人公司，因為我們的汽車就像是裝在輪子上的半智能機器人。

And with the full self-driving computer and all the neural nets, it kind of makes sense to put that onto a humanoid form.

有了完整的自動駕駛計算機和所有的神經網絡，把它們放到人形上也就說得通了。

And it's intended to be friendly, of course, and navigate through a world built for tasks.

當然，它的目的是友好地瀏覽這個為任務而建的世界。

Musk isn't alone in believing humanoid robots could change the world.

相信仿人機器人能改變世界的不只馬斯克一個人。

Investors are pouring millions into startups with the market expected to grow to $38 billion by 2035.

投資者正向初創企業投入數百萬美元，預計到 2035 年，初創企業市場規模將增至 380 億美元。

The funding that has gone into some of these companies has been absolutely huge.

其中一些公司獲得的資金絕對是巨大的。

And I think that kind of the parallel with the AI funding.

我認為這與人工智能的資金投入是平行的。

I mean, effectively, this has the potential to change the way we live and work pretty dramatically.

我的意思是，實際上，這有可能極大地改變我們的生活和工作方式。

Humanoid robots are closer to being a real part of our workforce than you might think.

仿人機器人比你想象的更接近真正成為我們勞動力的一部分。

Some companies are already deploying them in factories and warehouses.

一些公司已經在工廠和倉庫中部署了這些設備。

Tesla claims it has two Optimus humanoid robots in its factory.

特斯拉聲稱它的工廠裡有兩個 "擎天柱 "仿人機器人。

During Tesla's 2024 first quarter earnings call, Musk said he believes Optimus will be performing tasks in Tesla's factories by the end of the year and that it could start selling the robot to outside customers by the end of 2025.

在特斯拉 2024 年第一季度的財報電話會議上，馬斯克表示，他相信 Optimus 將在今年年底前在特斯拉的工廠裡執行任務，並可能在 2025 年底前開始向外部客戶銷售這種機器人。

At the company's 2024 Investor Day in June, Musk predicted it could have over a thousand or a few thousand robots working at Tesla next year.

在今年 6 月舉行的 2024 年投資者日上，馬斯克預測明年可能會有一千多或幾千個機器人在特斯拉工作。

Musk saying that Optimus will be bigger than the cars.

馬斯克說，"擎天柱 "將比汽車更大。

I presume that means that they are spending huge amounts of this.

我想，這意味著他們花費了鉅額資金。

Digit, created by Oregon-based Agility Robotics, is helping Amazon in early stage testing at its Sumner Washington Fulfillment Center and Innovation Lab.

由總部位於俄勒岡州的 Agility Robotics 公司創建的 Digit 正在幫助亞馬遜在其華盛頓州薩姆納配送中心和創新實驗室進行早期測試。

We've been working with them recycling totes.

我們一直在與他們合作回收手提袋。

The arms are capable of handling a wide variety of different payloads up to about 33 ish pounds.

這些機械臂能夠處理各種不同的有效載荷，最大重量約為 33 磅。

Agility says it plans to keep expanding the scope of work that Digit is capable of.

Agility 表示計劃繼續擴大 Digit 的業務範圍。

We envision an app store for robots out in the future where if you need tote recycling app, you can go into the app store and download that onto your robot.

我們設想將來會有一個機器人應用商店，如果你需要手提回收應用，你可以進入應用商店，把它下載到你的機器人上。

And according to the company, there is plenty of demand.

Agility is building a factory in Salem, Oregon, to keep up with orders.

Agility 正在俄勒岡州塞勒姆建造一座工廠，以滿足訂單需求。

In a few years, have a capacity of about 10,000 robots per year.

幾年後，每年可生產約 10,000 臺機器人。

And where will those go for the most part?

To many, many customers, but largely initially in the logistics, warehousing space.

客戶很多很多，但最初主要集中在物流和倉儲領域。

The next big market we see is automotive, retail and then eventually into markets like health care.

我們看到的下一個大市場是汽車、零售，然後最終進入醫療保健等市場。

Several other startups are developing similar humanoid robots.

其他幾家初創公司也在開發類似的仿人機器人。

Sanctuary AI launched in 2018 in Vancouver, Canada, and built its latest robot last year.

Sanctuary AI 於 2018 年在加拿大溫哥華成立，去年製造出了最新的機器人。

Phoenix, a five foot seven robot capable of lifting up to 55 pounds.

鳳凰，一個五英尺七英寸高的機器人，能舉起 55 磅的重物。

It looks a bit different from other humanoid designs, trading its legs for wheels.

它看起來與其他人形設計有些不同，把腿換成了輪子。

Robots with legs, the upper body, including the hands, have to be very weak and light.

機器人的腿、上半身，包括手，都必須非常薄弱和輕巧。

So instead of doing that, we put our product on a wheel base.

是以，我們沒有這樣做，而是把產品放在輪座上。

And because we made that trade off, we can build very powerful, very precise, very fast motors in the upper body.

正因為我們做了這樣的權衡，我們才能在上半身製造出非常強大、非常精確、非常快速的電機。

The company deployed early iterations of its robot with Canadian Tire, completing front and back of store tasks such as picking and packing merchandise.

該公司在加拿大輪胎公司部署了其機器人的早期迭代產品，完成店前和店後的任務，如分揀和包裝商品。

Robots were asked to do everything from greeting people when they come through the door to actually putting things on trucks.

機器人要做的事情很多，從迎接進門的顧客到把東西裝上卡車。

Sanctuary says it's close to releasing its eighth generation robot in the next few months and has partnered with automotive manufacturer Magna to help build its robots at scale.

Sanctuary 表示，它即將在未來幾個月內推出第八代機器人，並已與汽車製造商麥格納合作，幫助大規模製造機器人。

Optronic started in 2016 as a spin out from the human centered robotics lab at the University of Texas at Austin.

Optronic 公司成立於 2016 年，是從德克薩斯大學奧斯汀分校以人為中心的機器人實驗室分拆出來的。

It began with an initial project to help NASA build a generalized humanoid robot.

它最初的項目是幫助美國國家航空航天局（NASA）製造一個通用的仿人機器人。

The company says it's now on its eighth version of a humanoid.

該公司表示，它目前正在開發第八版仿人機器人。

All that has culminated in building the robot that we essentially always dreamed of building, a robot called Apollo, which is a mass manufacturable commercial humanoid robot.

所有這一切最終造就了我們夢寐以求的機器人--名為阿波羅的機器人，這是一款可大規模製造的商用仿人機器人。

With a max payload of 55 pounds and a swappable four hour battery, Apollo is designed to help support logistics and manufacturing to start with retail as its next focus.

阿波羅 "的最大有效載荷為 55 磅，電池可更換，使用時間為 4 小時，旨在為物流和製造業提供支持，下一個重點是零售業。

We've got to prove out sort of the simpler tasks, but my dream is for Apollo hopefully to be ready in time to help my parents, hopefully to help me as I get old.

我們必須完成一些簡單的任務，但我的夢想是希望阿波羅能及時準備好幫助我的父母，希望在我年老時能幫助我。