Name: 全球化正在破裂。下一步會怎樣？ (Globalization Is Fracturing. So What Comes Next?)
Uploaded: 2024-07-10T05:57:29.000Z
Duration: 7 min 52 s

For the last four decades or so, globalization has powered the world economy.

在過去的四十多年裡，全球化推動了世界經濟的發展。

程度副詞

After the end of the Cold War, what really accelerated was the economic integration of big nations.

冷戰結束後，真正加速的是大國的經濟一體化。

As I sign the North American Free Trade Agreement into law, we are ready to compete.

在我將《北美自由貿易協定》簽署為法律之際，我們已經做好了競爭的準備。

What made sense for businesses from a profit motive standpoint, from a cost and efficiency standpoint, was generally also supported by governments when it came to developing really complicated supply chains around the world.

企業從利潤動機、成本和效率的角度出發，在全球發展真正複雜的供應鏈時，通常也會得到政府的支持。

The more countries work together, the more their economies are linked, the more likely they are to be at peace with each other and that that therefore is good for the world.

各國合作越多，經濟聯繫越緊密，就越有可能彼此和平相處，是以這對世界是有利的。

There's a lot of uncertainty about what is ahead.

未來會發生什麼，還有很多不確定性。

So right now, the world economy is said to be at something of an inflection point.

是以，據說現在世界經濟正處於某個拐點。

It's a rethinking of globalization and to some extent of regionalization, and it changes everything.

這是對全球化的重新思考，在某種程度上也是對區域化的重新思考，它改變了一切。

We are in the midst of a serious financial crisis.

我們正處於嚴重的金融危機之中。

So in the years after the financial crisis, the conventional Western economic capitalist led model came under a lot of scrutiny, given the impact that that crisis had on ordinary people.

是以，在金融危機爆發後的幾年裡，鑑於金融危機對普通人造成的影響，傳統的西方資本主義經濟主導模式受到了廣泛的審視。

And in 2016, we saw a vote for Brexit, an exit from the European Union in the U.K. and the election of Donald Trump in the U.S.

而在 2016 年，我們看到了英國脫歐的投票，以及美國唐納德-特朗普的當選。

That in extension triggered a big trade war between China and the U.S.

由此引發了中美之間的貿易戰。

We've seen a global pandemic that has tested those global supply chains, and that has led a lot of countries to rethink offshoring production.

我們看到，一場全球大流行病考驗了這些全球供應鏈，導致許多國家重新考慮離岸生產。

And those conflicts are leading people to question even more the benefits of globalization.

這些衝突使人們更加質疑全球化的益處。

It was unprovoked, but this is what Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed on Ukraine.

這是無緣無故的，但這就是俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾-普京對烏克蘭發動的攻擊。

Explosions rocking several cities, including the capital of Kyiv.

爆炸震撼了包括首都基輔在內的多個城市。

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a sort of crystallizing moment for people on both sides of this emerging divide in the global economy.

俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭是全球經濟新出現的鴻溝兩邊的人們的一個結晶。

In 2022 at the United Nations, we had a series of votes over condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

2022 年，我們在聯合國就譴責俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭進行了一系列投票。

It is illegal annexation, all at gunpoint.

這是非法吞併，一切都在槍口下進行。

Roughly two-thirds of the global economy, led by the United States, voted to condemn Russia.

以美國為首的約三分之二的全球經濟體投票譴責俄羅斯。

The remaining third, we saw countries either abstain or vote to reject any condemnation.

剩下的三分之一，我們看到各國要麼棄權，要麼投票拒絕任何譴責。

We're seeing billions of dollars in investment in new factories that is now being guided by geopolitics rather than simply economics.

我們看到，數十億美元的新工廠投資現在是以地緣政治為導向，而不僅僅是以經濟為導向。

And that is really seen when you dig down into the United Nations vote.

當你深入研究聯合國的投票結果時，就會發現這一點。

In 2022, we saw $1.2 trillion in foreign direct investment in the world.

2022 年，全球外國直接投資達到 1.2 萬億美元。

We also saw $180 billion of that shift from the bloc that refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the U.S.-led bloc condemning Russia's invasion.

我們還看到，其中的 1 800 億美元從拒絕譴責俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的集團轉移到了譴責俄羅斯入侵的以美國為首的集團。

The International Monetary Fund found that if you had a full fracturing of the global economy, you would eliminate 7% of global GDP.

國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）發現，如果全球經濟完全分裂，全球 GDP 將減少 7%。

That doesn't sound like much, but it is equivalent to wiping out the French and German economies together.

這聽起來並不多，但卻相當於將法國和德國的經濟一併消滅。

China remains, of course, the world's factory floor.

Sentiment towards investing there has turned quite negative in recent years.

近年來，在那裡投資的情緒變得相當消極。

But there's a whole network of global trade that is resting on the interrelationships that have developed between the U.S. and China over the last 20 or 30 years.

但是，在過去二三十年間，中美兩國之間的相互關係發展起來，形成了一個完整的全球貿易網絡。

Many people refer to it as, you know, I'm making the omelette.

If you're an American company, you're still going to be very reliant on many things made in China for many years to come.

如果你是一家美國公司，在未來許多年裡，你仍將非常依賴中國製造的許多東西。

There is a group of economies who are navigating the middle of this geopolitical divide.

有一些經濟體正在地緣政治鴻溝的中間遊弋。

You can call them the connector economies.

They're not in the game of choosing sides.

They're attracting factories from the U.S., factories from China, often located close by or in the same industrial park.

它們吸引了來自美國的工廠和來自中國的工廠，這些工廠往往就設在附近或同一個工業園區內。

They're importing from China, they're selling to the West or vice versa.

他們從中國進口，賣給西方，反之亦然。

They can take advantage of their neutrality to get benefits from both sides in this emerging rivalry.

他們可以利用自己的中立性，在這場新出現的競爭中從雙方獲取利益。

In northern Vietnam, you can drive an hour from the Chinese border and into what was once a farm field with water buffaloes and banana trees.

在越南北部，您可以從中國邊境驅車一小時，進入曾經有水牛和香蕉樹的農田。

Over the last five years, we've seen exports from Vietnam to the United States double.

在過去五年裡，我們看到越南對美國的出口翻了一番。

But at the same time, we've seen imports from China into Vietnam double as well.

但與此同時，我們看到從中國進口到越南的商品也翻了一番。

Countries like Poland are now getting huge investment from China and South Korea and even U.S. chip makers as they set themselves up as a link between Europe and the rest of the world.

波蘭等國目前正獲得來自中國、韓國甚至美國芯片製造商的鉅額投資，因為這些國家已成為連接歐洲和世界其他地區的紐帶。

We're also seeing places like Indonesia, which has vast natural resources, bring together

我們還看到像印度尼西亞這樣擁有豐富自然資源的地方，將以下方面結合起來

Ford, the U.S. automaker, and Chinese companies and Brazilian miners to exploit nickel mines to sell into China or to sell into the United States.

美國汽車製造商福特公司與中國公司和巴西礦商合作開採鎳礦，銷往中國或美國。

If you're a country like Morocco that has a free trade agreement with America and you already have also quite good relations with China, well then obviously you're in a position to play both sides.

如果你是一個像摩洛哥這樣的國家，與美國簽訂了自由貿易協定，與中國也有相當良好的關係，那麼很顯然，你就有能力在兩方面都有所作為。

Mexico is perfectly placed to cash in on this so-called fragmentation.

墨西哥完全有能力利用這種所謂的分裂。

Sitting right on the U.S. border, it's a textbook example of nearshoring.

它位於美國邊境，是近岸外包的典型範例。

But Mexico is also attracting a lot of Chinese investment, and that's why it's able to straddle both sides of this divide.

但墨西哥也吸引了大量中國投資，這也是它能夠橫跨鴻溝兩側的原因。

Plenty of people talking about what's the sales made in China can sell in the future made in Mexico.

很多人都在談論中國製造的銷量將來能賣到墨西哥製造的銷量。

And right now we've got the potential, if we get our act together, to get all those consumer goods, electronic consumer goods that went into China to be manufactured in

現在，如果我們齊心協力，就有可能讓所有進入中國市場的消費品、電子消費品在中國生產。

To be clear, these connector economies in some cases have a long way to go before they have the necessary infrastructure in place.

需要明確的是，在某些情況下，這些連接器經濟體在建立必要的基礎設施方面還有很長的路要走。

Motorways, ports, electricity networks, these are all key features that global manufacturers want and need.

高速公路、港口、電力網絡，這些都是全球製造商所希望和需要的關鍵功能。

China, of course, has excelled at that for decades.

當然，幾十年來，中國在這方面一直表現出色。

These other economies are now trying to catch up.

這些其他經濟體現在正努力迎頭趕上。

We're at the very beginning of this story.

The reality is we're not seeing the end of globalization, but we are seeing a reshaping of the global economy.

現實情況是，我們並沒有看到全球化的終結，但我們看到的是全球經濟的重塑。

It's an incredibly interlinked global economy that we live in.

我們所處的全球經濟相互關聯，令人難以置信。

Business will continue to be done, money will continue to flow around the world, and even though there will be tensions at a government-to-government level, companies will look for a way around those political divides.

業務將繼續開展，資金將繼續在世界各地流動，即使政府與政府之間的關係會緊張，公司也會尋找繞過這些政治分歧的途徑。

 But how this happens and the direction we go in the years to come is really going to shape all of our lives.

但是，如何實現這一點，以及我們在未來幾年的發展方向，將真正影響我們所有人的生活。

字幕列表影片播放

全球化正在破裂。下一步會怎樣？ (Globalization Is Fracturing. So What Comes Next?)

eliminate

crisis

scale

negative