So we went below the 50% extension again and we created another low.

Now, I'm still not sure if the second wave right here is in.

In my opinion, we could go down a bit more and maybe touch the 0.618 extension before starting the third wave right here.

Because, I mean, right now this structure does not really look complete in my opinion.

I mean, sure, we might have an ABC here but the ABC is not really complete so we might get another low.

Now, to confirm that we will not get another low and to confirm that we bottomed right here, I need to see a break first above the 0.43 level and then to confirm that we are actually getting a third wave move to the upside which will go in this region right here, I need a break above this high right here at 0.45 and then above this high at 0.45.

If we break above these levels, then yeah, I can confirm that something more bullish is going on.

But until then, not yet.

There's nothing to confirm because we got a small bounce right here as you can see but this could always fail.

So yeah, I'm watching for another low.

Maybe we'll get to like 0.37.

I don't want the price to get to the 0.786 level at 35 cents.

I think that would be a bit much but we could get in the middle or maybe exactly this extension right here.

So yeah, we'll have to see.

We are still below the bull market support band as you can see but there is one good thing about this.

So, at least on the 4-hour chart, we are currently oversold on the RSI.

Well, we were oversold and I mean, if we check out what happened the previous times when we were oversold, for example here, the price went up about let's say 12% in two days and here we went up 43% in 14 days.

Now, I know these percentages are not nothing too crazy but you have to keep in mind that this is only the 4-hour chart.

So, if we actually go on the daily, you'll see that the RSI is not really looking that impressive.

We are currently at an RSI of 44 and yeah, this looks a bit better than before our chart but even on the daily chart, this second wave move right here does not really look complete and it really looks like we'll get another low.

Now, let me remind you where we currently are in this cycle.

So, I believe the first wave move to the upside topped right here and it went up in five waves which is good and now, I'm not sure if the main second wave has bottomed here.

It might have bottomed but to confirm that it bottomed, we need to get above this previous high at 81 cents and we need to go above this high and form a first wave move to the upside in five waves and this first wave move to the upside will only be the first wave of this main third wave that I have on the chart.

So, in my opinion, there's still a lot of time left in this cycle at least for Carbano and there's a big chance in my opinion for the price to do another 10x from where we are at now.

Now, of course, that's not financial advice.

You should do your own research but yeah.

Also, something very important, if we do break this 0.786 level right here, we'll most likely invalidate this first wave move to the upside and that will mean that we'll most likely get another low in the second wave right here in the C-wave and we'll go below the 31.8 cent level.

So, watch the support level very closely because if we fail, then we'll get another low which would not be bearish but we would go below the 0.786, the main 0.786 extension again so yeah.

I mean, if we keep putting in lower lows, we are going to invalidate this first wave move to the upside at about 22 cents.

So, we cannot really afford to put in more lower lows and I really want to see the price actually do something.

Now, let's go on the monthly chart for a bit.

So, a new month just started and as you can see, in June and July we actually closed below the yellow line on the RSI which is kind of weird.

It did not happen in the previous cycle.

If you can remember, I was comparing this move right here, the first wave and the second wave, to what happened in the previous cycle right here and yeah, in the previous cycle, the RSI did not go below the yellow line but in this cycle it did but I don't know if you can also remember but in some of my previous videos, I mentioned that we were supposed to go up in a third wave right here.

So, this was the first wave, then we got a second wave move down, the third wave started and my opinion was supposed to break above this previous high right here but then the pandemic got to us and it pretty much invalidated the first wave move high and we had to restart this whole move.

If you look at it that way, then maybe, maybe just maybe, this move right here looks more similar to what we are getting right now.

I mean, that could also be the case.

This whole move is kind of questionable though because if we look at it, I mean, it almost got invalidated.

It did not get invalidated so the invalidation point was at about 0.027 cents and the second wave went to about 0.030 cents so yeah, it was very close to being invalidated but somehow it managed to recover and get back above the bull market support band after being below it for actually about six months and then the pandemic came and yeah, it failed.

So, right now we have been below the bull market support band for about five months.

So, if what happened right here repeats itself, we could get another low on the price and stay below the bull market support band in August and in September.

Now, I do not want to see that happen but if it does happen, then it's going to be very similar to what happened here but you have to keep in mind that if we do that, there's a big chance that we invalidate this whole first wave move to the upside that we got.

So, maybe we'll do that but I don't, do not really want to see it but if we do, then we might as well do it right now because I mean, what is there to lose?

And if you check out what happened here on the RSI, so we don't have data for where the yellow line was right here but if we go on the daily and we compare that, so as you can see, here we went above the yellow line on the RSI and then we dropped below it for a few months.

Actually, that's like, let's say about four months before we actually managed to get back above it and if we compare that move to what's happening right now in this cycle right here, we'll see that this move looks actually very, very similar.

I mean, it looks so similar in fact that it's kind of weird.

So, here we did this, this kind of U-structure on your side and now we pretty much did the same thing which is kind of weird, don't you think?

So, this whole move looks very similar to what's happening right now and if we are to repeat what happened here, right now we are currently here.

So, and in this move that happened right here looks very similar to what happened there.

So, right now we are still above the yellow line on the RSI and if we do drop below it again and we close below it, then we might do something like we did over here and it might drop a bit more before going above it again and then dropping below it again and then we'll get a third wave move to the upside.

Like I said, this whole move is kind of questionable but it looks very similar to what we had in the previous cycle, at least before the whole move got invalidated.

Also, another interesting fact is, I mean, the RSI pretty much dropped to the exact same level as right here.

So, in the previous cycle the RSI in the second wave pretty much dropped to about 36 and in this cycle it dropped to like 35.

So, that's also something interesting that you need to think about.

Maybe we're copying this move right here and not this move right here.

Because like I said, I think the pandemic impacted the price in a big way.

I think the price was actually supposed to go a bit higher than just $3.10.

I think it was supposed to get to the $2.618 or maybe even the $3.618.

But, I mean, the $3.618 is at about $4.8.

So, maybe not that, maybe like in the middle.

So, in my opinion, Canado would have gone to about $4 to $5 in the previous cycle if it weren't for the pandemic.

So, if we do not get this kind of drop in this cycle, and by the way, this drop only happened because of the pandemic.

If we do not get this, then maybe the cycle will be more bullish than the previous cycle and we will manage to actually get to at least the $2.618 trend-based Fibonacci extension.

So, yeah, but I cannot confirm that until I see a third wave move to the upside.

Ideally, the third wave should top at least at the $1.618 level at around $5.30 to copy what happened in the previous cycle.

So, in the previous cycle, we got rejected by the $1.618, then we went in a fourth wave, and then we got a fifth wave to finish the cycle.

So, I mean, I see no reason why something like this could not happen again.

Also, in the third wave, we got above the 100% extension, the Fibonacci replacement, and yeah, then we pretty much used it as support.

So, if we want to do this again, we need to get above the previous all-time high in the third wave and ideally get to around $5.30.

So, the third wave should top, let's say, between $3.16 and $5.30.

If it tops earlier, if it tops at like, let's say, the $0.618 level, then yeah, we will most likely not get to the $2.618 in this cycle.

And we'll only get to the $1.618 or maybe even something a bit lower, like the $1.272.

I mean, that could also be the case.

But yeah, I will make sure to update you on what's happening.

And if anything crazy happens, of course, I will make a video about it.

And I make almost daily updates about Cardano.

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And I will see you in the next video.